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Thursday, September 18, 2008

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Additional point on d'Arnaud. He's the player the Braves reportedly wanted in exchange for Mark Kotsay, but the Phillies refused.

As someone who doesn't know *a lot* about baseball prospects and the draft, I was very impressed with what the Phillies have done this year, both in player development and the draft. Some very exciting performances in GCL, Clearwater, and Lakewood.

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So it's Hampton tonight? Um, he's no better this year than Reyes, although I guess he has a history of success.

59 IP, 5.34 ERA, 3.51 BB9, 4.27 K9, 1.22 HR9, 1.53 WHIP

His HR/FB is at a spectacular career high of 16.7%, which is basically double his rate in previous years (even with the Rockies in 2002 his rate was 12%.)

RHB: .281/.351/.459
LHB: .366/.400/.610 (47 PA)

He's been better in September: 3 starts, 19 IP, 9 R, 1.526 WHIP

This is refreshing and maybe Gillick's legacy will hopefully not only include a WS this year, but competitiveness for years to come.

Ed Wade would have probably pulled the trigger on that Kotsay deal.

Great reporting, original JDub.

I'd rather face Hampton, because with Hampton, you have the added bonus of him probably pulling something/getting a hangnail while pitching and having to come out of the game.

In 66 PA for the Red Sox, Kotsay is batting .200/.273/.317. Yikes.

Sophist: That is definitely not worth one of the best defensive catchers in the '07 draft.

In Hampton you get somesome who our LHB can likely tee off on (while his numbers against RHB are not so hot either.)

In Reyes

LHB: .250/.309/.357 - 3 K/BB - 1 HR
RHB: .307/.380/.498 - 1.26 K/BB - 13 HR

It looks like we'd have to likely rely on Werth, Burrell and Feliz, etc. more.

Hampton has been better of late, though. Does Dobbs get the start at 3rd? He should.

Yeah, HH. And Kotsay is a few months rental. Gillick traded Outman, Cardenas, and some dude for Blanton, but the needed was greater (and turned out to be even larger considering Kendrick's performance), and Blanton is under control beyond this year.

Kotsay for D'Arnaud sounds like a fleecing, especially with the performance of Werth and the addition of Stairs.

"somesome"? "needed"?

Wow. I need more coffee.

Well, thankfully, Gillick didn't get fleeced again. Kenny Williams already fleeced us once.

Outman is going for his second win tonight for the A's.

The Phillies face Hampton tonight and the Mets will face Reyes in their next game against the Braves.

Thank god that Kotsay deal, and the Mahay deal for that matter, never went down. Stairs and Eyre have been just as good and we didn't have to give up much to get both of them.

Phils record is 19-9 since the inception of Campaign Cheer (August 19th). That's a .679 winning %.

I'm personally a huge fan of Matt Stairs. Tubby and Canadian...great combo!

Cholly's Brain: "Hey, gut! Did you read BAP's comments on BL that the Phils are a hot mid-Sept. team, but are a mediocre last week of the season team? Should I start pushing the panic button?"

Cholly's Gut: "Relax, we got tonight's game in the bag. The Braves don't even know who's starting this game for them. When we get to Miami, we'll eat some Cuban food which'll make the gut happy and we'll make some good decisions about the Fish."

Cholly's Brain: "Thanks, gut. I was worried there. I'll go back to sleep."

OK, hope I didn't just jinx the Phils. The boss had me order his postseason tickets...I just paid for them and they will be in the mail next week.

Please God let us be fighting over who gets to go to which game rather than framing unused tickets for our wall of shame.

My boss is super cool, though. He's the only other die-hard Phils fan in the office and whenever a game comes up and he can't use the tix, he gives them to me. Dude's got over 1.5 million baseball cards in an air-conditioned garage specifically designed to hold his collection. I kid you not.

I liked that BAP apologized for being negative.

Why apologize now?

hh: LOL. Your boss is clearly a guy who has his priorities straight.

mike: Ok, I apologize for apologizing.

BAP: This is a guy who works non-stop. I don't throw the word genius around lightly, but this guy is a genius. He's rarely in the office, but the Phils are something he'll stop for--we were in the middle of a huge bid that was due that day--but we had free 2nd row seats (behind the Phils dugout) for the Reds game that Hamels pitched (Jimmy Rollins' 1st benching, Hamels 6-0 shutout game), and he says, "Come into the office; we have to go to this game."

He hates driving in Philly, so I drove and I got free tickets and was thisclose to the Phils. Best seats in the house.

2:20 Bush vs. Harden

By gametime tonight, it would be nice to have the Brew Crew go down this afternoon.

Pujols vs. Howard

Ryan Howard knocks in about 20% of runners on base in front of him while Albert Pujols knocks in about 17%.

Just another point regarding "value." This stat isn't dependant upon how many runners are on base since it's a percentage.

It likely has to do with the fact that Ryan Howard has a higher BA than Pujols with runners in scoring position and a higher slugging percentage with men on, meaning Howard is more likely to knock in a player on first.

Having watched D'Arnaud in person: He's very very good and quite athletic for a catcher. He's got a chance to be special. Behind the plate he reminded me of Pudge...his mentality and control of the field with his arm. He's got a quick release and pays attention to the baserunners despite his CS% being low. I blame his pitchers more for that.

bap: I think you're being unfair about the Phillies last year. Yeah, they finished 4-3. But they also finished 4-1, or 6-3, or 13-4. Or "they won their last 3 series". Last year was different, and not only bc of the Mets collapse. Hopefully this year will be too.

Interesting sidenote: Last year after Sept 18th games Arizona and San Diego were both 85-67, while the Rockies were 79-72.. eerily similar to the Phils(85-67)/Mets(84-67) and Marlins(79-72)?

Harden all over the place and throwing a ton of pitches. Bad defensive play by DeRosa. 1-0 Brewers, still top 1.

Marlins

29-27 since ASB (254 RS, 235 RA)
21-21 since Aug 1
10-4 since Sept 1

Rockies 2007 (after game 151)

31-25 since game 96 (316 RS, 248 RA)
25-21 since Aug 1
10-7 since Sept 1

Howard has a real shot at MVP if the Phils make the playoffs, he leads the NL in homeruns and rbi, and gets he batting average up about .250 here in the last 10 games. However it will be difficult to award him the MVP for voters because of the high strikeout totals, low batting average, and unspecatacular OPS.

harden in some early trouble

Outman's getting his 2nd start for Oakland today...

Craig Counsel still looks 12 years old.

Brian: Well, the focus of my posts was really on the last week of the season. In each of the last 3 seasons, there was a September free-for-all, with a playoff spot up for grabs all the way up to the last week of the season. And in each of those 3 seasons -- including last year -- the Phillies did great in the mid-September run-up, but only did OK at the very end. Only difference is that last year they got lucky and their rival had an even worse finish.

I am yet to see any evidence that this Phillies team really knows how to close the deal. They are like a golfer who keeps coming from 5 strokes behind on Sunday, to tie up the score on the 68th hole -- only to always shoot 2 over on the last 4 holes and lose by a stroke. Last year, it happened again, except the Mets shot 3 over.

My point is simply that the Phillies' recent hot streak is very typical of them, but let's see how they play from here on out. Everything in their recent history says that they are great chasers but terrible closers. I am not the least bit confident that this year is going to be any different. When they choke again, I will be angry but not surprised.

Man Harden is hurtin today. 35 pitches in 2/3 of an inning.

Isn't April 6th a really late start?

Tray - The start of the year is being pushed back for the World Baseball Classic.

Tray:

World Baseball Classic this year, so it's delaying the start of the season.

and apparently everyone makes it to october too.

I knew the Cubs wouldn't nail anything down this week...I mean, they are the Cubs, after all...

Let's face it: this race is going to the wire for every team. The Phillies, Mets and Brewers are all flawed teams that have histories of choking and being maddeningly inconsistent.

It would be a shame if the Phils end up being the one team to not make it this year, given the fact that this is the best starting rotation they've had in a long, long time. What a sh*tty coincidence. If you believe in baseball gods, it might even be cosmic irony.

The Cubs are only down 1-0, doubleh. Your post sounded like you were conceding the game to the Brewers already?

The Cubs have a tough schedule to end the month. 4 more against MIL, 3 against STL, 3 against NYM.

But their magic number is 4. I'd be more pleased with the Brewers playing them tough if the Mets were next, but they're not. After today, at least we can possibly root for the Brewers and the Cubs to lose.

I think the Cubs will either in the final game of the Cards series or the 1st game of the Mets series. In either case, they'll play the Mets tough. They'll be loose and confident, etc.. And they're a really good team.

TK - it's 1-1 now.

Actually, I take that back. If the Cubs win today, their magic number will be 3, meaning to clinch during the Cards series they'd have to sweep and the Brewers would have to get swept.

It seems that even if the Cubs win today, it's most likely that they'll be clinching the division during the Mets series.

On one hand I want to see the Brewers fall apart to ensure both the Mets and Phills make the playoffs. On the other hand, I want to see a one game playoff between the Mets and Phills and that only happens if the Brewers finish with the wild card.

at the earliest.

Sophist: No... with a magic number of 3, the Cubs need just win today and sweep this weekend. With 4 wins, they'll clinch by Monday regardless of what Milwaukee does.

Sophist:

If the Cubs win today, the magic number will be 2. It's 4 right now, but they're playing the Brewers.

I'm rooting both against the Brewers and the Mets, but of the two, I'd reather see the Mets stay home in October.

This might be off topic (and a good subject for a new post), but it's an important consideration as we look at the last ten games, this is the breakdown for the pitching matchups.

Note that we have Hamels (3), Myers (2), and Moyer (2) for 7 of the games - this is very good. Happ and Blanton are each scheduled for one, leaving one game where either Blanton or Happ could start.

The two toughest matchups are going to be against Joe Johnson (Myers) and Volstad (Moyer). Also note that although the rotation hasn't been set that far, we have to face Phillies-killer Tim Redding once the final weekend.

Thu, Sep 18 @ Atlanta 7:00
Hamels (13-9) Reyes (3-11)
Fri, Sep 19 @ Florida 7:10
Myers (10-11) Johnson (5-1)
Sat, Sep 20 @ Florida 7:10 Blanton (7-12) Sanchez (2-4)
Sun, Sep 21 @ Florida 4:10 Moyer (14-7) Volstad (5-3)
Mon, Sep 22 Atlanta 7:05
Happ (1-0) Jurrjens (13-10)
Tue, Sep 23 Atlanta 7:05 Hamels (13-9) Reyes (3-11)
Wed, Sep 24 Atlanta 7:05 Myers (10-11) Hampton (2-2)
Fri, Sep 26 Washington 7:05
MOYER ???
Sat, Sep 27 Washington 7:05
HAPP or BLANTON ???
Sun, Sep 28 Washington 1:35
HAMELS ???

TK: I'm conceding nothing. I'm just embracing my negative side. It's impossible to be a Phillies fan and not be negative at least some of the time. Worst-case scenarios...

That's right...

A win today knocks two off the Cubs magic number of 4. A magic number is the number of combined wins by you and losses by your closest pursuer needed to clinch.

A win today puts the Cubs magic number at 2. They could conceivably clinch by Friday if the Cubs win today and Friday and the Brewers lose Friday.

MFIP - Thanks. I completely messed that up the second time. The magic number comprise the combination of Cubs *and* Brewers losses. So a win over the Brewers knocks it down 2.

I think if the Cubs win today their magic number will be two (ie Cubs win + Brewers loss).

To make a correction, looking at the Nats schedule, we will not face Redding, as he pitches on Wed., but likely will face the following:

Fri: Lannan
Sat: Perez
Sun: Martis

Over the next 7 games, the Phils have no off days meaning the rotation will be:

Hamels
Myers
Blanton
Moyer
Happ
Hamels
Myers

We'll have an off day then before our final series against the Nats. That gives the Phils some options. We could skip Blanton's start and come back with Moyer on full rest but then we'd need Blanton on Friday anyway unless we went Hamels on just three days rest. I'd imagine thay leave Blanton on Friday, then Moyer on Saturday and pitch Hamels on Sunday if necessary... or if we've clinched, we can pitch Happ on Sunday.

Happ or Blanton!

Remember the Colonel character on The Simpsons? Col. Hapablap. That's what Happ-or-blanton reminded me of.

Phillies starting Col. Happorblant going on 9/27

Chooch is ripping it up in the 8hole this month. Its tough pulling for a guy hitting sub .200 at times, but when he hits with runners on and turns the lineup over, in addition to his great D, I still hold out hope for him to become an everyday starter.

Magic number is a combination of your wins and the other team's losses. If your magic number is 5, you don't need to win at all, as long as the competition loses 5.

Re Chooch: I agree.
I think that Phils can piece together the 2009 catching puzzle with in-house pieces.
Given the Phils self-imposed budget, dollars should be spent at other positions P(SP, OF).

Cubbies up 2-1.

Brew Crew don't have a hit yet(but do have 5 walks).

Harden doing his best John Maine/Kyle Kendrick impression today...

4 IP, 96 pitches

I like Chooch, but he will be 30 next year and is nothing more than a backup.

Also, I saw he was born in David. Where the heck is that?

TK:

In Panama.

Ribbies: You spoke too soon. Durham just hit a double. Bases loaded, 2 outs, JJ Hardy at the dish.

So TK, would you want the Phils to sign a FA catcher for 2009?

Is Stairs eligible for post season ? If not how do we get him eligible..Cant Tagucchi come down with a fake injury in order to get him included ? This is really bothering me since our bench is horrible, with bruntlett, tagucchi and Jenkins..We need the extra bat. I would appreciate the infor on this subject

Yup, looks like Hardy just missed that one. Harden is walking the tightrope.

Hardy doesn't come through. Still 2-1 Cubs.

Harden doesn't look good today, though. I haven't been very impressed with his command lately.

Yes, Stairs is eligible, even without a fake injury.

Phils acquired Stairs on August 30th, so I think Bonehead is right.

The question that no one has answered is whether Happ is available. He was with the team in the summer but sent back down in early August. The team called him back up on the 31st.

Sophist:

I'm pretty sure anyone that was on the ML roster at any time before September 1 is eligible.

sophist: Why wouldn't Happ be eligible? If you're on the roster before September 1, aren't you automatically eligible?

No, I'd like to see what Marson can do in Spring Training next year, competing with Ruiz. And continue to use Ruiz as a backup unless proven otherwise.

Re Happ eligibility - For some reason, his callup is dated 8/31 on phillies.com, but it was really a Sept roster expansion callup. So Happ is not post-season eligible as of now.

But, because he was on the 40-man as of 8/31, Happ could be added to the post-season roster with the injury ('fake' or otherwise) scenario.

TK: I agree.
Phils would still have Coste and Jamarillo as insurance.

This what Wikipedia says about post-season eligibility: "Players must be on a team's 25-man roster as of August 31 to be eligible for post-season play. The only exception is that a player on the 60-day disabled list may be replaced by another player from the team's 40-man roster (as of August 31) who plays the same position."

This sounds partly, but not completely, correct. I mean, if those are the rules, then Geoff Jenkins is INELIGIBLE for post-season play because he was not on the 25-man roster on 8-31. That can't be right.

Nevermind me. I think I'm wrong.

I think it's your 25 man roster as of 8/30 or 31, then anyone on the DL.

Looking at T-Mac's pitching matchups, we're going to see a lot of stiffs or part timers. Not an Ace in the bunch. The no names are the guys that pitch complete game shutouts against us. We need to take this one game at a time.

MFiP - Yeah, I'm not sure. The rule I found (on wiki) says the following:

Players must be on a team's 25-man roster as of August 31 to be eligible for post-season play. The only exception is that a player on the 60-day disabled list may be replaced by another player from the team's 40-man roster (as of August 31) who plays the same position.

Not entirely clear that what you said is consistent with the rule as stated. I'd read this differently than you, it seems.

Let's hope we are in good shape when the Nats arrive. Thanks to Comcast,I get to watch the Nats and O's daily. The Nats are much better than their record and Lannan and Perez made the Muts look really bad.

Maybe Iguchi could become a "tad" bit hurt to allow Happ to pitch on the postseason.

And is the rule that you had to be on the roster on August 31 right before midnight or just that you had to be on the roster at some point in the season before that? If it's the second case then Happ's fine.

Of course Happ probably shouldn't be on the playoff roster anyway unless one of our other starters gets injured.

The Phils have 4 players on the 60-day DL. Tom Gordon, Scott Mathieson, Francisco Rosario and Mike Zagurski. That gives them some postseason roster flexibility.

That means it would be very easy to put JA Happ on the postseason roster in place of Tom Gordon.

Matt Stairs is already eligible. The rule:

Playoff rosters must be set at 25, not including disabled players, on August 31. For each player on the 60-day DL, teams may add players to the eligible list during the playoffs at the same position, provided that they were in the orginization on August 31. Teams must choose 25 players from their playoff eligible list before each round of the playoffs.

Am I the only one seeing a font change on this site?

Yeah just ignore what I said. I was dead wrong.

The only players eligible are those on the 25 man roster on 8/30 or 31 (before expansion), plus those on the DL. Obviously those on the DL can be replaced.

The rules for playoff eligibility is as follows:

each team's initial pool of eligible players is the 25 players on its active roster at midnight on 8/31 plus any players on the 15-day DL, 60-day DL, suspended list, bereavement list, etc.

Any of those players can be replaced if there is an injury however.

Happ was not on the roster as of midnight 8/31. Therefore not eligible. He was called up on 9/1. The story broke on 8/31.

The only way Happ gets on the roster if someone on the 25 man roster gets hurt. I think it used to be pitcher for pitcher. But now I think So Taguchi could get injured and Happ would be eligible. Here's a good http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2007/09/postseason_elig.html>explanation on the position requirement.


But yeah, you could replace them for those already injured.

See the case of K-Rod and Iron Pig Steve Green.

5-2 Brewers

Brewers up 5-2. They get the depleted Reds next without facing Arroyo and Volquez, then 3 with the AAA Pirates, and 3 with a most likely resting Cubs.

We need the Cubs to win this game.

Brewers up 5-2.. we need to push the winning streak to 7 tonight.

I realize how ridiculous this sounds, but could Pat Burrell's slump be related to his impending free agency? If Pat continued his 1st half production, his agent would've demanded a megadeal that would've landed him in another city. Pat is already set for life and seems to love Philadelphia. Could this conflict have created mixed feelings that unconsciously led to his slump?

I predict Pat resigns for 2 years, 16 mil...

I realize how ridiculous this sounds, but could Pat Burrell's slump be related to his impending free agency? If Pat continued his 1st half production, his agent would've demanded a megadeal that would've landed him in another city. Pat is already set for life and seems to love Philadelphia. Could this conflict have created mixed feelings that unconsciously led to his slump?

I predict Pat resigns for 2 years, 16 mil...

5-2 Brewers 9th inning.

Pandemonium in Wrigley. Brewers blow another one.

Where'd ya'all go??

6-6 Cubbies tie it with a 3 run shot in the 9th with 2 outs!!!!!

It was 2 outs nobody on, ridiculous. Four spot, they go to extras.

Brewers just blew a 4-run lead in the 9th

Regarding the AL games. It clearly affects the results. The Phils would be 5 1/2 ahead of the Mets without them. The best way to resolve that problem is if all the teams in the same division play the same AL teams.

I think the Interleague games are not set up fairly right now. The Phils for example would be 5 1/2 games ahead of the Mets without them. Next years they are playing all the top teams. The best way to resolve the inequalities is to have all the teams in the same division play the same teams.

Re: interleague play, I cannot tell you how happy I would be if the Phillies were to come out and play the Twins. The Twins are evn getting a new stadium that will actually be outdoors! I have only gone to one Twins game since I moved out here- it was 72 degrees and sunny- and we were indoors. It was so wrong, I never went back.

Where did my post go?

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