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Tuesday, September 30, 2008


Vic is awesome. People on here undervalue him, but I certainly do not.

Looks like Happ made the NLDS roster with Seanez likely out.

Yeah the team batting average fell mainly due to importing some low average types (Feliz, Jenkins) and drops in batting average among a few regulars (Howard, Rollins, and Ruiz). Even Vic's average was less than Rowand's last year in CF.

I am more concerned that this lineup also had a much lower OBP to because some guys had notable decreases in OBP this year (Howard, Ruiz) and bought in guys (Feliz, Jenkins) who are largely out machines unless they get a hit because of their pedestrian BB/9 rates.

Yeah this offense scored a ton of runs because they have some sick power (one aspect that I think is generally unnderappreciated is just how amazing Howard's raw number is in this new age of baseball where hitting 40+ HRs in a season is atually quite a feat) but it is a flawed lineup that I don't know if it translates well to the postseason.

Given that the Phils are likely to face better pitchers who aren't as apt to give up HRs in the postseason, I am concerned the Phils are going to be able to put enough runs on the board to win. Going to be pretty tough for them to manufacture runs unless JRoll and Vic get on base frequently. Even then, this lineup is generally a pretty poor lineup to hit and run with since there are a ton of great contact hitters.

Let's go Rays!

Victorino is a loser.

MG: Well, then, it's a good thing that the Brewers are similarly constructed. They rely pretty much on the longball as well and don't have too many contact hitters, either. I just looked at their batting averages and they are very similar to the Phils. Their bench is a little better than ours, however.

I think it's going to all come down to pitching. If Myers can be good Myers, we can win this series.

Since Happ is on the roster, I hope he is told to prepare for game 2 like he is the starter, with Myers getting a quick hook if he struggles early again.

JW, 'twas 2007 the season of career years?

MG, I'm not as concerned about the lineu in the ost season as you are. The reason:

Shane Victorino got moved to the 6 hole. What that basically does for the Phils is give them a leadoff hitter in the bottom of the order - a threat to steal a base where reviously there wasn't. I suspect that when he's on base the hitters behind him see a lot more fastballs, which is good for Feliz or Dobbs, as they are both dead fastball hitters.

IMO, it's not a coincidence that the Phils started scoring runs more consistently when Vic got moved down. It's a lot easier to manufacture a run in the bottom of the order with him there.

To wit, while Feliz should be given props for his double that scored the winning run in the clinching game, remember who was on first base. The minute Pete Happy hit that ball I knew the Phils would score because of who the runner was. Maybe JRoll and Werth score on that ball too, but not very many others.

If that's indeed correct about Happ, I agree with the decision.

PhilliesPhan: Saying that Bourn is the next Corey Patterson suggests you either:
1. Know nothing about Bourn
2. Know nothing about Corey Patterson

They are very few similarities between these two.

I am certainly NOT saying Bourn had a good season. He had a terrible season. I'm surprised they didn't yank him from the lineup in August. My point is this: It's unlikely his career is over at age 25 so it will be a few years before we can declare him a bust.

No way Cholly lifts Myers early in Game 2. Phils are either going to sink or swim with the headcase.

Interesting note from David Murphy.

"the Phils are keeping catcher Lou Marson around to travel with the team and catch bullpen sessions. Needless to say, he's pretty excited about being along for the ride."

Looks like they want Marson to stick with the team and get some playoff experience. Seems like they think a lot him, and I would not be surprised to see him on the 25 man roster next year, if not out of spring training getting a call-up after injury. Coste and Ruiz have to come ready to play next year, because Marson is breathing down their necks.

AWH - Will see but if the Phils have to win this series largely on offense then they will be going home.

I do agree with you though that the Brewers are very similiar offensively to the Phils and one of the reasons why I think the Phils match up very well against the Brewers/have a good shot to win this series.

I'm with you MG, it seems like Happ is there more as a injury/extra innings type. I don't think that Charlie is going to have an especially short leash, especially against a righty heavy lineup like Milwaukee, where Happ could be eaten alive.

It was interesting watching the Chi Sox/Tigers game yesterday and seeing two 2007 Phillies, Floyd and Garcia, facing each other.

Floyd seemed slightly more consistent.

"No way Cholly lifts Myers early in Game 2. Phils are either going to sink or swim with the headcase. "

I would keep him on a short leash. He was torched in his last two games, and looked like he completely forgot what he had been doing the last two months. I would have started Moyer in game two.

MG: Good points. The 2008 Phillies had fewer hits than the 2007 team, but not out of line with the overall mlb decline in offense. The real story was the decline in OBP from .354 to .332, resulting from a huge drop in walks (641 to 586 despite more PAs in 2008). Interestingly, the team struck out slightly less, from 21.1% of their ABs to 20.3% So we had slightly more contact, fewer hits and WAY fewer walks.

To my simple way of thinking, the way to rate an offense is in number of runs scored.
That is how games are decided, after all.

I love baseball in part because it can be analysed in so many complex ways & that leads to good in person and on -line debates about this and that.

But when look at a team , end of the season- the best offense has scored the most runs.

gotta love those "productive outs."

New thread. Move along. Nothing to see here.


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The package is aimed at buying up the bad debts of failing financial institutions on Wall Street.

US President George W Bush praised lawmakers for their "spirit of co-operation" before signing the bill into law later on Friday.

The House adopted the new version after the Senate added about $100bn in new tax breaks to win Republican votes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had been buoyant ahead of the vote, surging up 250 points, but those gains were pared back amid profit taking and continued uncertainty, and it closed down 1.5%.

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