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Midnight pep rally: October is here, so are Phillies

Although it straddles the line between work and play, the great thing about running Beerleaguer is that I can still step back and become a fan.

What started as a hobby has grown into more, and while the viewpoint has changed, the same butterflies will swirl in the hours leading up to 3 p.m. It was around this time last season when I started introducing more stand-alone graphics into the rotation. I did this for two reasons. First, I enjoy it tremendously and believe it adds life to the site. Readers seem to enjoy it and it breaks the monotony. Second, it’s an outlet to become an unbridled fan. It's restorative. What better time than the post-season to shut off the analytical side of the brain and fire up the fun half. Frankly, there’s little difference between what I do in Photoshop and what co-eds scrawl on bed sheets leading up to the big pep rally. Phils R # 1 indeed.

Programming note: Listen to 830-AM WEEU tomorrow at 9 a.m. when I rah rah sis boom bah the morning away on Mike Faust’s Feedback Show.

Report: Happ makes the roster, Seanez likely out

Playoff rosters haven’t been finalized, but reports are that left-handed starter J.A. Happ will make the post-season roster as a long man. Veteran Rudy Seanez, who’s been used infrequently since May, could be out.

Beerleaguer: The Phils elect inexperienced talent for the final spot in the bullpen and a veteran banjo hitter to round out the bench. Both are the right moves. If the Brewers blow up one of the starters, Happ, who could also pitch in a desperation left/left situation, gets the call. With Greg Golson missing the cut, So Taguchi is likely headed to his ninth post-season series. Taguchi has thrived in October and has a much better chance of helping them than Golson. Taguchi would erase a season of woe if he stepped up in the playoffs. As we saw Sunday, Golson wouldn’t cut it. Not even close. Seanez would be a waste, too. He can’t pitch in big spots and he can’t go more than an inning. The Phils are smart not to lop off the end of the bench just to keep Seanez around. The Phils have a rather strong playoff bench, and a seven-man bullpen is plenty.

Midday thread: ‘Twas a season of low batting averages

While playoff teams like the Phils play on, they leave behind the residue of regular season statistics. In many cases, it isn’t pretty, particularly in the batting average category, where the team finished .255, eighth lowest in baseball.

In talking with Beerleaguer’s senior correspondent, one of his favorite moments from Sunday’s B-game was watching So Taguchi, making his first start since May 30, go completely nuts. The forgotten outfielder went 3-for-5, smacking the ball all over the place. Statistically, the game was significant because it raised his batting average from below the Mendoza Line to .220. Amazingly, that’s a point higher than Carlos Ruiz’s final .219. Prevailing wisdom was that Chooch finished strong. Perhaps defensively, but that's it. Ruiz went 0-for-his-last 15, giving him a September batting average of .208.

Batting average is one of baseball's most superficial categories. It's also loads of fun. Fans spent months wondering how low Ryan Howard’s average would go. On opening day he went 1-for-4 (.250). He went hitless the next game (.167) and went 2-for-4 the next (.300). It marked the last time Howard would be above .250 until Sunday’s finale, when a pinch single raised his final average to a nifty .251, a point higher than Pat Burrell’s final .250.

On a related note, congratulations to Phillies batting champion Shane Victorino on his .293. Shades of Ty Cobb from the former Rule 5 pick. It was just enough to nip Chase Utley's .292, which is about where it hovered for a full three months.   

Brad Lidge named NL Comeback Player of the Year

The Phillies closer, who converted all 41 of his save opportunities, received 12 first-place votes and was named on 22 of 30 ballets, according to the team Web site.

Beerleaguer: This is a goofy category. Who qualifies exactly? Cubs closer Kerry Wood finished second, followed by Cardinals outfielder Ryan Ludwick, Marlins third baseman Jorge Cantu and Mets outfielder Fernando Tatis. Where exactly did Ludwick come back from? He never was. And does someone like Carlos Delgado deserve consideration for a brilliant second half?

I’m not exactly sold that Lidge entered 2008 as some sort of darkhorse. The Phillies acquired him to handle the ninth inning and sent a nice package to Houston to get him. As for Wood, he's more like rehabilitated player of the year. My idea of a comeback player is closer to Cantu or Tatis, scrubs who were near finished and resurrected their careers entirely.

Gallardo in Game 1 could be a problem for Phillies

Twenty-two-year-old right-hander Yovani Gallardo spent most of the season recovering from an ACL tear. Today, he’s healthy, he’s fresh, he’s nasty, and he toes the slab for Milwaukee tomorrow afternoon.

Just when it looked like the Phillies would have a clear edge with Cole Hamels pitching Game 1, interim Brewers manager Dale Sveum boldly counters with a pitcher who struck out seven batters in four innings last Thursday, his first start since May 1. It’s a potential Ubaldo Jiminez situation for the Phils. Fans recall how the young Colorado right-hander kept the Phils off-balance in Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS. Like Jiminez, Gallardo possesses a live arm, electric cheese and an explosive breaking pitch. He’s also just a little wild, which tends to work against the Phils.

If Gallardo pitches like he’s capable, the Phils will struggle. Pat Burrell can be beat with the inside fastball these days, and Jayson Werth, who can look overmatched against right-handers, has struggled lately. With C.C. Sabathia looming for Game 2, this series is no cake walk, even without Ben Sheets.

Breaking news: Phillies reportedly set playoff rotation

The Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki reports that Cole Hamels, as expected, will pitch Wednesday’s Game 1, Brett Myers will work Thursday’s Game 2 and Jamie Moyer will pitch Game 3 Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers. [Link]

Beerleaguer: The Phillies feast on the fruits of an early clinch. Because they won Saturday, the Phils bought themselves just enough time to set ‘em as they want ‘em, while it stands to reason that Milwaukee will be forced to use their best pitcher, C.C. Sabathia, no earlier than Game 2. Hamels hopes for better results than last season’s NLDS Game 1 undershirt tragedy. Myers splits the lefties and tries to fix his mechanics on the fly in the second game, which could be C.C.’s start. Moyer works Game 3, just as he did a year ago. Joe Blanton could pitch the fourth game depending on where the Phillies stand in the series.

The Brewers’ rotation is less certain. Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush are strong possibilities to pitch Game 1, with Suppan having nine post-season starts with a 3.00 ERA under his belt. I would guess Suppan.

Rivalry wrap: Phillies just too tough for Mets to top

Eighty-nine wins clinched the division for the Phils in 2007, but cleared the calendar for the Mets to book October tee times in 2008.

Yesterday at Shea, the Mets season ended appropriately, with the jerry-rigged bullpen letting up the game-winning runs in another last-day, season-ending loss to the Marlins, while in Milwaukee, mid-season pickup C.C. Sabathia proved to be the missing piece for the playoff-bound Brewers.

In fairness, it seems the 89-win Mets haven’t been extended nearly the same Big Apple courtesy as the 89-win Yankees for battling through injuries. At times, you would look at the Mets’ lineup, with guys like Marlon Anderson starting in left and retreads like Nelson Figueroa on the hill, and wonder how they were hanging in at all. Guys like Fernando Tatis could easily be playing for the unaffiliated Long Island Ducks.

Nevertheless, relying on broken-down veterans like Pedro Martinez and others to turn back the hands of time was a risky proposition from the start. Although the Mets held a 3 ½ game division lead as late as Sept. 10, they were relying on Carlos Delgado to stay unconscious and the bullpen to produce using smoke and mirrors.

While the Phils and Mets can boast a comparable nucleus of home-grown talent, they separate in terms of supporting cast. In the end, the better team got hot at the right time, while the flaws of the weaker team were exposed. There was no collapse. The better team won.

Beerleaguer for breakfast: Times set for first three

The Phillies will host the Brewers in Game 1 of the National League Division Series Wednesday at 3 p.m., followed by a 6 p.m. start for Thursday's Game 2, then a 6:30 p.m. start time Saturday in Milwaukee. All the games will be televised on TBS. The Game 4 and 5 start times have not been announced.

2008 Phillies won't paint the town red too soon

The Phillies celebrated back-to-back National League East titles after clinching the division on the second last day of the season, but unlike 2007, their sights are already set on the next order of business.

I’ve been looking forward to today’s game all season. I revel in its meaninglessness, its absence of consequence. I’m legitimately excited to see today's bench-emptying lineup card. This is one game where the only thing I honestly care about is that the team plays hard and has fun, just like they used to say in little league.

The good people at Comcast SportsNet covered virtually every second of yesterday’s postgame revelry, and about an hour into the show, I came to the conclusion that I was happier about the Phils clearing my Sunday schedule than a successful defense of the National League East. That’s not to undervalue the intense grind that started in mid-February, but the way I see it, you finish with 91 wins, a 3.90 team ERA, a perfect closer, a 45-year-old 16-game winner, a home run and RBI champ, you better be in. Watching the celebration, the view from my oversize loveseat painted a subdued portrait of a division winner. The “team of necessity” celebrated out of necessity, too. Listen to Charlie Manuel and he’ll tell you the main reason his club was swept in the '07 NLDS was they got too caught up in the euphoria of finally making it and anything that happened in October was practically viewed as a bonus. That won't be the case here.

To the game, the only thing missing was that it happened in game 161 instead of 162. The final play was given a proper storybook treatment by Phil Sheridan of the Inquirer, who correctly identified it as one of the all-time great defensive plays in Phillies history. He also recognized the play Carlos Ruiz made on the bounce over his head. Aside from the 9th-inning defense, Jamie Moyer rises to the occasion yet again in a big game. Moyer has become a Philadelphia treasure that needs to be kept under lock and key.

Game chat: Discuss today's game if you'd like, but to post a separate entry would be to cheapen the purity of the situation. Have a good Sunday everyone.

Game chat: Phillies, Moyer take aim at division title

Jamie Moyer (15-7, 3.78) was on the mound a year ago against the Nats when the Phillies clinched their first post-season appearance since 1993. The 45-year-old left-hander tries to repeat history this afternoon against John Lannan (9-14, 3.86) and the Nationals. First pitch is 3:55 p.m.

Game chat: Mets up first with division at stake

Johan Santana (15-7, 2.64) pitches on short rest when the Mets continue their series with Ricky Nolasco (15-7, 3.55) and the dangerous Marlins. Santana toes the slab at 1:10 p.m. A Mets loss clinches an NL East title for the Phillies, who can also put themselves into the post-season with a win this afternoon against the Nationals.

Phils ambush Nats early; Mets take another tumble

One more win or a Mets loss would give the Phillies their second straight National League East title. At worst, they’ve clinched a tie. They’ve reached 90 wins for the first time since 1993.

Behind Ryan Howard’s three-run homer and RBI-double, and Chase Utley’s base-clearing double, the Phillies unloaded for seven runs off Collin Balester in the first two innings en route to an 8-4 win. The Phils’ early outburst flashed on the scoreboard two hours north at Shea Stadium, where the Mets trailed all night and lost 6-1 to Chris Volstad and the Marlins.

The Mets, who also fell a game behind the victorious Brewers in the Wild Card race, play at 1 p.m. this afternoon, so it’s possible the division could belong to the Phils before the first pitch is even thrown in Philadelphia. With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, Johan Santana pitches on short rest. Tough right-hander Ricky Nolasco goes for Florida. Meanwhile, left-handers duel in Philly, where Jamie Moyer goes for his 16th win against emerging southpaw John Lannan.

Beerleaguer: An unofficial headcount says Ryan Howard’s mug is everywhere this morning. If you subscribe to the belief that an MVP needs to come from a playoff contender, than Howard is your guy should the Phils wrap of the division. Make it 32 RBIs and 11 homers in a lights-out September. Last night’s highlight reel will solidify his case, just as long as those highlights don’t include his brutal 5th inning error. My sense is that voters who might have been leaning toward all-around stud Albert Pujols might actually zero in on that error, Howard’s 19th of the season, and lean toward Pujols even more. It’s going to be another interesting vote involving a Phillie.

Last year, we had J-Roll’s infamous “We are the team to beat.” The 2008 catchphrase is more appropriate. “We’re a team of necessity” is how outfielder Jayson Werth described the Phils following their four-game sweep of Milwaukee. Let’s hope they don’t adhere to that rule too closely and drag this out any further.

 

Predictably, division race boils down to final weekend

For the second year in a row, the National League East will be determined by the outcome of Phillies versus Nationals and Mets versus Marlins.

This morning’s inbox included a note from a Mets fan I met a couple weeks ago. Nice guy. Name's Jim. He's a Metsblog regular and frequent Beerleaguer. He offered to share his stash of Xanex.

It’s a pennant race and nothing comes easy, unless you’re the Mets last night and the opposing manager isn’t playing to win. No sour grapes, however. Lou Pinella has every right to do what he did. That’s what 96 wins and running away with the division buys you when the games no longer mean anything, except for that whole “integrity of the game” thing. I guarantee if the Phils were in their position, we’d wonder why Adam Eaton didn’t pitch all nine innings, with Mike Cervenak batting clean-up.

Fans should’ve expected it to be this close, this late. I know I did; I didn’t think they’d clinch before the weekend, and it’s sort of what everyone expected all along. It would come down to the very end. And most people figured the Wild Card would be in play. The only variable was whether they’d be looking up or down in the standings.

They say in baseball, you learn something new every day, but in many ways, you don’t. Baseball repeats the same lessons over and over. Sometimes you learn, most of the time you don't. One lesson I've learned is never delete any artwork you've created for an earlier series. Aside from a few minor tweaks, all the design work will be recycled this weekend for Phils vs. Nats and Mets vs. Marlins. Likewise, the anxiety, sleeploss and everything else connected with being a fan of this team will be a watered down version of '07.

Thanks, Jim, but I won't be needing that Xanex. I've got my own drawer of Alprazolam. It's the generic version. 

Readers weigh in: “If the Phils win 2 out of 3 this weekend I think they are NL East champs.  If the Phils can't win 2 of 3 against the Nats at home, they don't deserve to win the East or frankly go to the playoffs.” -- MG

Game chat: Mets try to play between the raindrops

Inclement weather threatens to complicate weekend

Heavy storms are expected to besiege the Northeast starting tonight. The Mets close out their series with the Cubs at 7:10 p.m., with a 100 percent chance of precipitation beginning exactly at 7, according to forecasts.

(From Bloomberg News) – “Rainouts for both the Mets and Phillies tomorrow night would probably mean a doubleheader either Saturday or Sunday, and a shuffling of pitching rotations to accommodate the change in schedules. The Mets may have more complications if tonight's game against Chicago is rained out and needs to be played to decide the playoff race. In that case, the Cubs would have to return to New York on Sept. 29, two days before the first round of the playoffs is scheduled to start.

“The last time a team involved in a playoff race was forced into a doubleheader on the final weekend of play was in 2003, when the Cubs played the Pittsburgh Pirates on the penultimate day of the regular season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.”

J-Roll follows most valuable season with bizarre one

In 2008, Jimmy Rollins decided he no longer wanted to be a power threat. He wanted to be a leadoff hitter instead.   

Originally, this post was designed to pose this question: Is Jimmy Rollins, nearing the age of 30, slowing down? I wondered this as I watched J-Roll go 1-for-11 against Atlanta, showing little pop in his bat, continuing what has generally been considered a disappointing encore to his brilliant season a year ago.

In reviewing J-Roll's '08 follow-up, 'disappointing' may not be the right word. Instead, call it a very 'different' season for the reigning MVP. Because of injury and less production throughout the lineup, he’s seen 162-less plate appearances than 2007, when he finished with a ridiculous 778. He has 19 less home runs than ’07. His OPS (.780) represents a significant drop from last year’s career-high .875.

While some signs like his massive drop in power suggest he’s slowing down, many others reveal the opposite. Aside from an excellent defensive season, he’s already tied his career high in stolen bases with 46, matching the mark set during his rookie year. He’s been successful in 93.9 percent of his attempts, which is stellar. And while his triples are down, he’s roped 36 doubles, just two less than a year ago.

Then there’s this little nugget: His K/BB ratio is an outstanding 55/55. No other season comes close. With two more walks, he will match his career high and he could finish with the highest on-base percentage of his career. He’s sitting at .346 now. His career high of .348 was set in 2004.

It’s strange, but it’s like Jimmy spent his entire career ignoring some of the rules of a leadoff hitter, never quite fitting the mold and behaving, to some degree, like a power hitter. Then when he develops into a legitimate power threat, as he did in 2007, he does a total 180 and converts into the quintessential table setter.

One could argue that 2008 has been Jimmy Rollins’ best approach at performing the duties asked of a leadoff man. That was, after all, his original purpose.

Postgame: Braves bury Phils; Mets blow it at Shea

Brett Myers labored through his second horrible start in a row, as the Phillies fell to the Braves 10-4 at Citizens Bank Park. Myers allowed 10 hits, including nine after just three innings.

Meanwhile at Shea Stadium, the Mets squandered opportunities galore in a 9-6, 10-inning loss to the Cubs, dropping them into a tie with the Brewers in the National League Wild Card race. The Mets let a four-run lead built on Carlos Delgado's grand slam slip away and went five straight innings where they stranded a runner at third, scoring just once during that span on a bases-loaded walk. The Cubs would eventually catch up to the Mets' bullpen (Luis Ayala) for three runs in the 10th. Elsewhere, the Brewers beat the putrid Pirates 4-2. The Phils maintain a 1 1/2 game lead over the Mets in the National League East with a day off tomorrow and the Mets wrapping it up with the Cubs, weather permitting.

Beerleaguer: Nobody said a pennant race was easy. Myers resembled the lost soul who was demoted to the minors before the All-Star break. It was painful to watch. One can only wonder whether the short-rest complete game took a toll. He had no command of his fastball again, and frankly, even Myers wanted Myers out of this one. His latest struggles are a major setback for a club gaining confidence in his ability to anchor a playoff rotation.

The game at Shea was as poorly pitched as they come, and the blown scoring chances, particularly in the ninth, came back to bite the Mets. They also hit into a share of back luck with runners in scoring position (double play liner to Derrek Lee, for example). I needn't mention the Mets' bullpen.

Game chat: Myers takes the hill in series finale

Hoping to rebound from the worst start of his career, Brett Myers (10-12, 4.46) takes his last scheduled turn of the regular season tonight against Jo-Jo Reyes (3-11, 5.74) and the Braves. First pitch is 7:05 ET.

Standing at the doorstep to 90 wins, the Phillies lost ground to the Mets last night and cling to a 1 1/2 game advantage in the National League East. Meanwhile at Shea, Oliver Perez and Carlos Zambrano square off in a game televised nationally tonight on ESPN, just one channel up from CSN on my local HD dial. ... Earlier this evening, Philadelphia police responded to a report of a suspicious package delivered to Citizens Bank Park, forcing an evacuation. Bomb squad officials detonated the package and confirmed the packages were harmless and fans were allowed back inside.

Lineups are posted: Chipper Jones remains out of Atlanta's lineup. Chris Coste does the catching for the Phillies.

Link: DN scribe interprets possible playoff roster

There have been a number of questions regarding playoff roster rules. David Murphy has some answers on his blog, High Cheese. [Link]

“As of Aug. 31, the Phillies had five players on the disabled list: Mike Zagurski, Scott Mathieson, Francisco Rosario, Tom Gordon and Geoff Jenkins,” writes Murphy. “Which means that, should they choose, they could add any of their minor leaguers who weren't on the roster Aug. 31 to replace one of those five players.” Murphy sees a roster that would include 11 pitchers and six reservists, with no, great fit for J.A. Happ, but a possible opening for speedy outfielder Greg Golson.

Midday thoughts: No time to hide behind past, future

There are a number of pieces floating around today, online and in print, written by writers of two frames of mind: Those looking ahead and those scoffing at those looking ahead.

As Philadelphia sports fans, we’re conditioned to consider ‘today’ only inside the broader framework of the past and future. We do this because ‘today,’ historically, hasn't been very kind. Today makes us sad. Today makes us nervous. Today isn’t as good as it used to be.

And today, at least one piece suggested that the window may be closing as the Phils face some precarious off-season negotiations. Factor in a National League that may not stay this weak, a thin farm system and a new stadium and management commitment in New York, we're forced to view the situation from an angle that makes us very uncomfortable: that today is everything.

Sloppy loss adds pressure to tonight's series finale

An errant throw, a base-running miscue and poor situational hitting nullified a decent start by Cole Hamels in a 3-2 loss to Atlanta.

Readers called it “a stupid game,” which was a good way of putting it. While it wouldn’t be accurate to call a seven-inning, three-run evening a disappointment, those still waiting for Hamels to deliver a lights-out performance down the stretch can only reminisce over the eight-inning, 13-strikeout shutout that occurred Sept. 28, 2007 against Washington.

There was Hamels’ wild throw in the third, Pat Burrell’s base-running mistake in the sixth, but also, why is Shane Victorino pulling the ball to that side of the infield? The Flyin' Hawaiian can do many things, but situational hitting is not one of them. It's just one example of the many blown chances against Mike Hampton, who improved to 3-3. The Phils grounded into three double plays on the night. Lineup catalysts Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth and Victorino went hitless, leading to a predictable, low-scoring finish.

With the loss, coupled with the Mets' win, their lead falls to 1.5 games in the National League East. They hold a 2.5 game advantage over the Brewers, who also won. Things will get hairy if the Phillies can't rebound tonight.

Game chat: Phils try to inch closer to division title

Standing at the doorstep to 90 wins, the Phillies find themselves in the driver's seat for a spot in the post-season with a favorable matchup tonight. Left-handers Cole Hamels and Mike Hampton toe the rubber when the Phils and Braves continue their series.

The Phillies' magic number to win the National League East is four, with the Wild Card magic number down to three. Elsewhere, the Mets call on Johan Santana to stop the bleeding against the Cubs. First pitch is 7 p.m. And in Milwaukee, Dave Bush takes the hill for the Brewers as they begin a series with Pittsburgh. That one gets underway at 8 p.m.Lineups for the Phillies are posted, and it’s an identical lineup card as last night.

Minors: Florida Instructional League starts today

Five teams, including the Phillies, will participate in the program, held Sept. 22 through Oct. 15. The Phils open their season today against the Jays.

A number of top prospects, including Joe Savery, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Drabek and Anthony Hewitt are included on the 25-man roster. As an interesting note, one reader on Phuture Phillies passes along word that shortstop Jason Donald will get in some work in as utility player, although he’s not listed on roster. That news came from a Phillies pregame radio show last week. The Jays, Pirates, Yankees and Rays will also participate in the Tampa-area program. Bill Dancy and Dusty Wathan will oversee field operations for the Phils.

Phils send three to Hawaii: Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown and Chris Kissock will play Hawaiian Winter Ball for the Honolulu Sharks, starting Sept. 27 through Nov. 16. The schedule includes 40 games. Outfielders Taylor and Brown are considered top 10 prospects in the Phillies' organization.

Phillies picking the right time to balance out attack

While they’ve reached the post-season just once, September success has been an undeniable pattern for the Phillies over the last five seasons.

One of the top story lines of 2008 is the number of individual slumps that crippled the offense at various points. Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins started slowly, Chase Utley’s production fell off in mid-June, Pat Burrell hasn’t been hitting in August and September. With only five left to play, the Phils appear to be firing on all cylinders after suffering through a long drought where it seemed like every other game was lost by scoring three runs or less. All the while, the pitching stayed strong and fans wondered when, and if, the offense would make good on their end of the deal.

It’s finally happening, and it’s no shock that the calendar reads September. Over the past five seasons, the Phils are 87-49 in September/October regular-season contests, the most wins among all National League clubs. Historically, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins step on the gas this month, and have. While some hitters like Burrell, Jayson Werth and Pedro Feliz are on the cool side, the rest of the offense is in a nice, warm groove. The team has won 10 of 11, including some timely, late-inning hits, including a pair of eighth-inning homers from Burrell and Pedro Feliz the night before. During the stretch that started with Milwaukee, they’ve been held to three runs just once, and they won that game (Saturday’s win over Florida). Generally, the offense has slowly improved since bottoming out with back-to-back shutouts against Florida and Pittsburgh on Aug. 8.

Prevailing wisdom is that the pitching has carried them. After all, they’re tied for sixth (3.91) in team ERA. But don’t discount an offense ranked seventh (773) in runs scored.

Postgame: Phils pitching slays soft Braves lineup 6-2

J.A. Happ teamed with Rudy Seanez, Scott Eyre (W, 5-0) and Ryan Madson to stifle an Atlanta lineup without Chipper Jones and Brian McCann.

Pat Burrell added a three-run homer in a four-run eighth. With Milwaukee idle, the Phillies' magic number to reach the post-season is down to three. Meanwhile in Queens, the visiting Cubs lead the Mets 8-4 in the bottom of the eighth. Should the score hold, the Mets would fall 2 1/2 games behind the Phils in the National League East.

Beerleaguer: Credit Rich Dubee and the rest of the Phillies' decision makers for going with Happ, making the 5th starter issue moot. Another nice job for the 25-year-old southpaw. The Phils hold off a benign threat using a hodgepodge bullpen. Tonight was all business against a much weaker Braves team, wiping their hands of it like a playoff team should.

Things are looking mighty good.

Update: The Cubs dumped the Mets 9-5. With six to play, the Mets cling to a one-game lead over the Brewers in the National League Wild Card race. The Brewers open a three-game set against the Pirates tomorrow. With the win, the Cubs clinched home-field advantage through the NLCS.

Game chat: Phillies open final 2008 homestand

Beer nuts: Pinella plans on playing his regulars

The Cubs are one win away from locking up home-field advantage until the World Series, but even if they accomplish that tonight, manager Lou Pinella says he’s sticking with his starters this week against the Mets.

''If we need to rest a player here or a player there, that we can do,” Piniella told reporters. “I just can't play the lineup like we're playing today the rest of the week. It just wouldn't be fair to the (contending) teams and it wouldn't be fair to us because we haven't clinched home-field advantage yet either.'' Jason Marquis (10-9, 4.39 ERA) and rookie Johnathon Niese (1-0, 4.09) square off in Game 1 between the Cubs and Mets at Shea Stadium tonight at 7 p.m.

Phillies fielding percentage: We touched on the gloves in the morning post. It’s been a couple years since I’ve picked up ‘Moneyball’ and can’t recall the good measure for assessing defense, if there is such a thing. Fielding percentage doesn’t account for range, but range factor constantly sells excellent defenders like Jimmy Rollins short, yada, yada.

Yesterday, the official press notes mentioned that the Phils have the 5th-best team fielding percentage (.986) in the NL. Rollins, Pedro Feliz, Chase Utley, Shane Victorio and Pat Burrell all rank in the top three at their position. While fielding percentage isn’t an air-tight measure, I thought it was important to mention how many Phillies are making the plays they set out to make. Factor in good seasons by Jayson Werth and Carlos Ruiz, team defense on the whole has been, at worst, invisible, at best, solid. And they definitely improved since the beginning of the season. Baseball Prospectus confirms this; the Phils rank 8th in baseball in defensive efficiency, the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team’s defense.

Latest post-season odds: Speaking of BP, the Web site says the Phillies have a 98.3 percent chance at reaching the postseason, seeing a 92-win finish.

Beerleaguer for breakfast: You’ve gotta have bullpen

The Phillies find themselves 1 ½ games up in the National League East because their bullpen could hold it and the Mets’ bullpen couldn’t.

Time to celebrate ... celebrate that the season series with Florida is over. What a pain. Seriously. The Phils didn’t play particularly well, but scratched out two-of-three with a 5-2 win yesterday. Call it “The Bad Lighting Series” or perhaps “The Mound Conference Series.” “Is it just me or do the Phillies seem to have an inordinate amount of meetings on the mound?” asked one reader via e-mail. “There are constant meetings between catcher-pitcher (both Ruiz and Coste) and then meetings with the infielders all present. Then Dubee will come out for a meeting. This can happen 3-4 times in an inning, sometimes even during one at-bat.”

Good teams know how to win ugly, which seems to be how every series in South Florida unfolds. Credit stuff like defense, stable starting pitching and a bend-but-don’t-break bullpen, all the stuff that teams who’ve been there before can execute down the stretch (Wait ... so the Phils are one of those teams now?) Greg Dobbs made another outstanding play in the 7th to limit the damage on a bullet down the third-base line. It’s amazing how many times the bullpen worked out of jams. Then they received a huge pinch homer from Pedro Feliz to supply a three-run cushion. But even before that, Jamie Moyer comes up big down the stretch yet again, allowing one run in six innings to earn his 15th win of the season.

Meanwhile in Atlanta, the Mets were victimized with another late-inning bullpen collapse, blowing their 16th save since the All-Star break. And in Cincinnati, Milwaukee dispatched the Reds 8-1 in a must-win for the Brew Crew. A combination of four Phillies wins or Brewers loses punches Philadelphia’s ticket to October.

In another season of peaks and valleys, the Phils have won nine of 10, and a look in the rear view finds two scuffling teams in the Mets and Brewers. The Phillies are on top, but the way good fortune shifts in the blink of an eye, the only thing truly worth celebrating this morning is kicking Florida to the curb.

Game chat: Phils, Marlins settle series this afternoon

Jamie Moyer (14-7, 3.86) gets the ball having never lost a game in Florida’s house, as the Phils try to make it two out of three against the Marlins.

Moyer has been near spotless against the Marlins, while his opponent, rookie Chris Volstad (5-3, 3.07) has pitched the Phillies tough. Lineups are posted: Charlie Manuel sticks with what’s been working, meaning Jayson Werth batting third, Greg Dobbs at third and Carlos Ruiz behind the plate. First pitch is 4:10 ET. Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone.

Sunday: Phillies walk tightrope back to division lead

The Phils’ bullpen worked out of jams in the seventh, eighth and ninth to preserve the win for Joe Blanton in a 3-2 victory over Florida. Coupled with losses by the Mets and Brewers, the Phils are in the driver’s seat for playoff return.

Guests of the Littman/Mintz wedding held at the Radnor Valley Country Club huddled around those with Internet access on their cell phones as if they were watching a ballgame at Chickie's and Pete's. That’s how I watched yesterday’s game, joining a chorus of cheers as Brad Lidge recorded the final out, recreated on a cell phone with dots and numbers. While the party roared, with drinks flowing and the band going, fans with the Phils on their minds felt even more liberated after that. Wild Cherry’s “Play That Funky Music White Boy” never sounded so good.

"Mazel tov" to the Phillies, and to Brett and Monica. After backing themselves into a corner, the Phils have gotten hot while the Brewers, a pathetic 4-15 in September, have fallen off. After sweeping Milwaukee, the Phils have built a three-game lead over them in the Wild Card while jockeying back and forth with the Mets for the division lead. Truth be told, both the Mets and Phils are on solid footing for a final playoff push.

Watching the highlights, I saw some excellent glovework, including bang-bang plays by Greg Dobbs and a textbook block by Carlos Ruiz. Readers confirmed the quality of Chooch’s night:

“not for nothin, but ruiz was in total control quarterbacking in tight spots all night.” - redbeard

“Redbeard is spot about Ruiz, he is my MVP in tonight's game. The way he slowed down the Marlin's hitters with coming to mound and talking over the pitches was briliant.  This kid has made leaps and bounds in a short time. Not to mention that fastball by Madson was sick, pure adrenalin.” – vegas

“A Phils win (today) combined with the tough schedule for the Mets would greatly increase chances for a second straight division title. Final thought: Moyer is a big game pitcher.” -- clout

Saturday: Philies fall from first, try it again tonight

Brett Myers followed the best start of his career with his worst, allowing five first-inning runs before recording an out and 10 runs total in the Phils’ sloppily pitched 14-8 loss to Florida.

Lately, there’s been a run on deciding moments in Philadelphia sports, including Donovan McNabb’s fumble Monday against the Cowboys, Ryan Howard’s go-ahead blast the other night and Pat Burrell’s homer on Thursday. Amidst the chaos of a 14-8 ballgame, the deciding moment came after the Phils pulled ahead 6-5. Myers gets ahead of Cameron Maybin 0-2, then for some inexplicable reason, he and Chris Coste decide on a fastball down the chute. Maybin singles, John Baker walks and suddenly Myers is waist deep in a big inning with the heart of the lineup coming up. The Fish hit the Phils upside the head for six.

You wonder how a game can be pitched so poorly against a team as familiar as the Marlins. Granted, they fish Fish can mash. Jorge Cantu needs just one home run to give the entire starting infield 30 or more on the season. But you know they’re looking fastball in most cases. How is it that Jamie Moyer masters them consistently, yet Myers and others cannot? One theory is they let their emotions get the best of them against a hated adversary. That’s where your catcher has to be on top of it.

I wonder about Coste sometimes, and judging from his diminishing playing time, I’m not the only one. Coste only catches Myers anymore. The last time he handled someone else was Cole Hamels on Sept. 7 in the nightcap against New York, and that did not go well (Hamels turned his back on Coste twice).

Before the game, a friend of mine illustrated the difference between Coste and Carlos Ruiz this way: Ruiz appears to be involved in the game, Coste does not. I think it's a fair observation. I doubt Ruiz would have accepted 0-2 fastball on Maybin.

Game chat: It’s late summer wedding season, so I’ll be away from my Saturday post once again. Tonight, it’s Joe Blanton (7-12, 4.82) and Anibal Sanchez (2-4, 5.87) at 7:10 ET. The Phils have hit Sanchez hard this season.

Standings: The Mets pulled back in front of the National League East by half a game with a win over Atlanta. Elsewhere, Milwaukee lost to Cincinnati, keeping the Brewers two full games behind the Phils in the Wild Card race.

Game chat: Right-handers open series in Florida

The Phillies try for eight-straight wins when Brett Myers (10-11, 4.06) and Josh Johnson (5-1, 3.30) take the mound in South Florida. First pitch is 7:10 ET.

Does it get any worse than a game in Florida during a pennant race? Yes. A game in Florida during a pennant race with Brett Myers pitching. Flashback to May 23, 2007 in Miami. You remember the game. Myers blows his shoulder needlessly pitching with a four-run lead in the ninth. Greg Dobbs throws home. Rod Barajas stands to tag Hanley Ramirez. The Phils actually win in extras, but it feels like a loss.

Fortunately, Myers has seen happier days, especially lately. Following Sunday's complete-game two-hitter, Myers enters tonight with a record of 7-2 and a 1.80 ERA since being recalled from the minor leagues. His worst outing may have occurred just days ago against the Marlins, when he was charged with four runs on eight hits and one walk, while fanning nine in a Sept. 10 loss.

Meanwhile, the Marlins try to spoil the Phillies' fun by sending out Johnson, a big, tough right-hander who appears to be back to 100 percent following elbow ligament surgery. He has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 outings.

Friday thread: We owe it all to the Phillies' arms

The Phillies now have the fifth-best team ERA in baseball (3.88), underlining the fact that their success this season has been all about pitching.

The Phillies have reached 86 wins, which matches the prediction many Beerleaguers issued at the start of the season. Most people said they’d finish somewhere in the 86-90 range, but what they didn’t predict was just how good the pitching would be. The offense would be a given. The pitching would be the wild card. It’s been the opposite.

The Phillies’ 3.88 ERA matches the pitching-rich Angels for fifth-best in baseball, and they trail only the Dodgers and Cubs in the National League. It’s a dazzling improvement over 2007 (4.73) and 2006 (4.60). At best, the Phils have been just an average, park-adjusted staff over the last five seasons, and in the previous two, they were borderline brutal. (There was a point in '07, before he took one off the leg against Colorado, when Kyle Kendrick gave the Phillies the best chance to win in the starting rotation. Good times).

Quality starts have become so standard, they’re easily taken for granted. They have 83 of them. They also have 11 shutouts, second in the NL. They are 73-0 when leading after eight innings, a testament to Brad Lidge and a vastly improved bullpen. Consider the dimensions of Citizens Bank Park and it makes their performance this season even more exceptional.

The reason is simple: their staff is rubbish-free and healthy. Gone are the likes of Jose Mesa, Brian Sanches, J.D. Durbin and others. Even Adam Eaton can’t buy his way back into the mix. Included are improvements like Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin and Lidge, obviously. The company line about Brett Myers, how he was both the biggest off-season and mid-season acquisition, proved to be on the mark. Then you have guys like Jamie Moyer showing us that you can teach old dogs new tricks. He’s allowed less than one home run per game, which is off the hook.

Indeed, there have been hiccups, like the 8th inning, Kendrick's fall and Myers’ first half, but nothing compared to the turmoil of previous seasons.

Burrell go-ahead homer fuels Phils past Braves 4-3

The Phillies finish their season series a perfect 9-0 at Turner Field, completing their third-consecutive road sweep of Atlanta to stay on top of the National League East. The Phils have won seven straight.

Owned. It starts with the pitching, which is what this series was all about. Cole Hamels might have been sub-par by his own standards, but he still earned a quality start with six innings of two-run ball. He actually lowered his ERA to 3.10 without having his best stuff. The lethargic Braves tacked on an unearned run off Ryan Madson, but that was it. J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge pitched scoreless frames to close it out. For Lidge, who was much better tonight than Tuesday, the All-Star closer improved to 38 for 38 in save opportunities.

Offensively, they hit the ball hard all night, but managed just four runs. The big blow came off the bat of Pat Burrell, who belted a Mike Hampton hanging breaking ball into the left-field seats for a two-run shot, marking his 250th career tater. For the second game in a row, the Phils got on the board early. Jayson Werth continued to earn his everyday keep with a run-scoring double in the first inning. Ryan Howard drove him home to collect his 138th RBI of the season.

All-in-all, the story boils down to total domination over the Braves at Turner Field, paced by their arms and a ridiculously good 2.74 season-series ERA.

Elsewhere, Mets win, Brewers lose. The Phils remain a half-game up on New York in the division race.

Game chat: Phillies aim for another sweep in Atlanta

The Phils are a perfect 8-0 at Turner Field this season. Left-hander Cole Hamels (13-9, 3.11) tries to close out the series with a win against Mike Hampton (2-2, 5.34) and the Braves. First pitch is 7:05 ET. Site note: Typepad, our hosting service, is performing some troubleshooting this evening regarding comment posting. Beerleaguer will be back at 100 percent momentarily.

Notes: Phillies well-represented in GCL Top 20

Right-hander Jason Knapp, a 2008 second-round pick, was rated fourth overall among prospects in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, according to Baseball America, topping the list of Phils who played for the GCL champions. [Link]

Knapp, 18, was wooed by the Phils after signability issues dropped him into the second round. At 6-5, 215, the right-hander went 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 38/12 K/BB ratio in seven games with the Phils. In addition, catcher Sebastian Valle, outfielder Zach Collier and third baseman Anthony Hewitt ranked 6th, 8th and 13th, respectively. The Phillies’ 2008 draft is considered by many to be the deepest in years.

Valent sings praises of d’Arnaud: Yesterday, I wrote about Reading Phillies fantasy day. During the game, I had a chance to talk with former Phillie and current Williamsport minor league hitting coach Eric Valent. When asked which player stood out most for the short-season Crosscutters, Valent didn’t hesitate to mention catcher Travis d’Arnaud, a 19-year-old high-schooler who was chosen in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft. Valent sees definite Major League potential in d’Arnaud, considered one of the best defensive catchers chosen in the ’07 draft. His bat also looks promising. In 175 at bats with Williamsport, he hit .309/.371/.463 with four homers, earning a mid-season promotion to Low-A Lakewood, where he hit .297/.357/.469 with two homers. At 19, there’s plenty of time for to develop power. Look for d’Arnaud to climb the charts significantly once Baseball America and other scouting mags publish their 2009 prospect rankings.

Trip to new Yankee Stadium highlights 2009 schedule: Old news, but yesterday, baseball released a tentative 2009 schedule. The Phillies will open at home April 6 against the Braves and conclude with a set with the Marlins ending Oct. 4. The interleague schedule features two series with Toronto, a trip to Tampa for a clash with the Rays and a visit to new Yankee Stadium for a matchup with the Bronx Bombers. The Phillies will host Boston and Baltimore at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies were pummeled in interleague play this season, finishing 3-15 against the American League, tied with San Diego for the worst record in baseball. Wouldn't you rather have more games with the NL West (20-12) and Central (27-16)?

Postgame: Happ, Phillies dust aside Braves 6-1

J.A. Happ pitched six shutout innings to help keep the Phillies perfect at Turner Field and maintain their lead in the National League East.

Following last night's nail-biter, they rewarded us with an easy one. The Phillies rattled Jair Jurrgens (13-10) with four, first-inning runs and never looked back, giving Happ (1-0) enough breathing room to cruise to his first Major League win. Reminiscent of earlier trips to Atlanta, the Braves, an empty shadow of the team picked to win the division by many prominent insiders, looked powerless to mount an attack. Besides Brian McCann and Chipper Jones, there just isn’t much to write home about in Atlanta's arsenal. Omar Infante hit fifth for crying out loud.

Still, Happ earned Chevrolet Player of the Game honors for completing a solid six innings and the Phils came close to completing another shutout. At 85 wins – just one away from my pre-season prediction – pitching continues to be the unforeseen constant.

Game chat: First-place Phillies hand ball to Happ

J.A. Happ (0-0, 5.71) makes his fourth-career start tonight and first since July 9 when the Phillies continue their series with Jair Jurrjens (13-9, 3.62) and the Braves. First pitch is 7:05 ET.

Summary: In a decision that came down to Happ and Kyle Kendrick, manager Charlie Manuel and the Phillies decided on the 25-year-old left-hander who posted a 3.60 ERA with impressive strikeout totals for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Meanwhile, the Phils are considering sending Kendrick to the instructional leagues this fall, hoping for the same results they got from Brett Myers when he departed on his three-week minor-league refresher. “Kyle needs a break,” Manuel told the media. “Mentally and physically, he’s in a down period right now. It’s a longer season than the minor leagues. He’s at the point where shutting him down for a while might be good for him.”

Happ, who last pitched 3 1-3 innings of long relief Sept. 9 against Florida, has many believers among Beerleaguers. Tonight, their faith will be tested as Happ toes the rubber for the front-running Phils, who lead the Mets by a half game in the NL East with 11 games to play.

Lineups are posted: Jayson Werth hits third. Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz earn starts.

Off-topic: Life of a ballplayer no day at the park

Last week, Beerleaguer was given a chance to live the life of a Reading Phillie as part of Baseball Fantasy Day at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Putting bat to ball instead of pen to paper is every sportswriter’s worst nightmare, but who has time for self-degradation when you’re having so much fun? Contest winners, United Way sponsors and yours truly were treated to the full Reading Phillie experience last Thursday: locker rooms; custom uniforms; two hours of batting and fielding practice with five ex-Phillies, including John Kruk, Gary Maddox, Greg Gross, Ricky Botallico and Eric Valent; followed by a nine-inning game in front of the wincing gazes of friends, family and concerned citizens. Our team won 17-12. I played third, doubled and struck out in my triumphant return to the diamond. I hit 17th in the lineup. Was it Bill James who called the 17-hole hitter the most important? The last time I stepped onto the field was 16 years ago. Comparatively speaking, a 16-year layoff meant I was in the prime of my career next to other participants.

My purpose for being there was to spread the word for our Reading Eagle partners and to observe. The first thing you notice is how much baseball hurts your hands. Relays to first pummel your mitt, glancing swings rattle your nails. These hands, conditioned to fondle a computer mouse, aren’t long for the bronzing of baseball.

The next thing you notice is that the infield, which looks as silken as liquid chocolate when raked, actually contains microscopic death shards designed to rip holes in your flesh. In baseball, the worst mistake you can make is to fall to the ground. The infield grit will tear you, metal spikes impale you, fences skewer you.

Finally, you gain an instant appreciation for a professional player’s ability not to drift off into outer space during hours of batting practice. A generous amount of a ballplayer’s career is spent shagging balls and watching teammates hit in the cage. Including spring training, it works out to roughly 200 batting practice sessions a season. These usually occur during the hottest hours of the day. The rest of their time at the park is divided among signing autographs, doing interviews and watching video. Getting back to my earlier point from the previous thread, no wonder players keep such an even keel over a 162-game season. Our dugout needed two buckets of Budweiser just to make it once through the lineup.

Wednesday: Balanced approach not in our blood

Fans and players are often at odds over when it’s time to push the panic button, or whether there is such a thing.

In addition to a proprietary undertaking, Beerleaguer continues to be a learning experience. They say in baseball, you learn something new every day, but in many ways, you don’t. Baseball repeats the same lessons over and over, yet we, as fans, stubbornly block them out. Baseball has built in this 162-game season, the ideal sample size to make informed predictions, the ideal remedy for mid-summer sleep loss. History warns us never to get too high or too low, especially over a team that’s finished with similar marks the last few seasons. The Phillies have become an easy test subject, a mouse that will either reach the cheese or get close enough to sniff it.

Staying at an even keel doesn’t make for the most dynamic writing during the dog days. You’ve got to write about something, and for months, we focused on subjects that no longer apply. The slumping offense has vanished. Brett Myers is a front-line starter again. Jimmy Rollins is no longer at the center of controversy. Ryan Howard is once again making an MVP push in September. And while the subplots change daily, and are destined to change again over the final 11 games, it’s the underlying foundation of 84 wins, ahead of last season's pace, that should have been at the forefront all along.

But as long as we have a pulse, it never will be.

Howard homers Phils past Braves, into NL East lead

Ryan Howard belted a go-ahead, two-run home run in the eighth inning to complete a 8-7 rally over the Braves, moving the Phillies back in front of the National League East following the Mets' shutout loss.

No hit has made more noise this season. No at bat has been better. If the Phillies can run with the lead they’ve just reclaimed, Howard will become more than just an emerging MVP candidate. In a game that featured Gregor Blanco batting in the 9th inning with the bases loaded and two outs against a dangerously erratic Brad Lidge, each team leaving 10 men on base, a three-for-four night from Jayson Werth, including his 23rd home run, an 0-for-5 night from Pat Burrell, with five, jack-squat strikeouts, and Ryan Madson mastering his most important assignment in ages, No. 6 transcended it all. Right now, Howard is the best.

In other hip-hip hurray finals, the Nationals blanked the Mets 1-0, the Cubs beat the Brewers 4-3 and it was the Marlins over the Astros 5-1.

Game chat: Phillies' season down to a dozen

Veteran Jamie Moyer (14-7, 3.68) and rookie James Parr (1-0, 0.00) toe the rubber when the Phillies and Braves open a three-game set at Turner Field, where the Phils have yet to lose a game this season. First pitch is 7:10 ET.

Elsewhere around baseball, several games impact the Phillies’ playoff hopes. In Washington, Odalis Perez tries for another Nationals’ win over Mike Pelfrey and the Mets. The Mets cling to half-game lead in the East. In Chicago, C.C. Sabathia hopes to end Milwaukee’s free fall tonight against Ryan Dempster and the Cubs. Entering tonight, the Phils are neck-and-neck with the Brewers for the Wild Card lead. And in Florida, the Astros turn to their ace, Roy Oswalt, against Chris Volstad and the Marlins.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia beat guys may be moments away as of this writing to discovering the identity of tomorrow’s starting pitcher. Kyle Kendrick and J.A. Happ are likely candidates.

Mets struggle again, East lead down to half-game

The Nationals beat the Mets last night 7-2, meaning their loss column advantage over the Phils is just one. Pedro Martinez let up four runs and eight hits in six innings as the ghosts of last season may be starting to swirl in New York.

"There's no panic. We know what's at stake," team spokesman David Wright said after the game. "We're in the middle of a playoff push and we're going to have bumps in the road. This is a time when we've got to keep them at a minimum. We can't allow them to carry over into the next couple of games." A Phillies win