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« Mets struggle again, East lead down to half-game | Main | Howard homers Phils past Braves, into NL East lead »

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

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Re: RBI

Ryan Howard has 89 RBI from the 453 runners (19.464%) who have been on base in front of him (246 were on 2nd or 3rd, 85 on third).

David Wright has 83 RBI from the 470 runners (17.659%) who have been on base in front of him (247 were on 2nd or 3rd, 104 on third).

Now... David Wright's OPS+ is 26 points higher than Ryan Howard's, but is it fair to argue that Ryan Howard been a better run producer than David Wright this year? Or is the argument that Howard has simply been luckier in RBI opportunities?

This is a real question... it wouldn't be the first time I've overstated the value of a number.

Lauber reports it is Happ to start Weds

http://www.delawareonline.com/blogs/phillies.html

Looks like Happ gets the nod tomorrow.

CJ: The answer to both questions could be yes. The first is obviously yes, Howard has been a better run producer. But he also may have been lucky.
Personally, I think it's more that he's been unlucky in bases empty situations, or better yet uncomfortable, and that has led to his dramatic split difference. The shift is the most obvious possible reason for this. That makes him an outlier case when it comes to the importance of RBIs when evaluating a hitter.

Tom McCarthy was on Mike Francesa's show earlier sait it Happ tomorrow and he will also get another start. Maybe KK can be a useful righty specialist the rest of the way.

Is Chipper playing?

Happ was the only choice that could be made. I like the matchup with the Braves, in a big ballpark. I just wonder, how sharp he will be, having pitched so infrequently in the past few weeks. His command is always something to be concerned with. If its there, he will be solid.

Hey, this team trotted Adam Eaton out there, in the final series of the season last year. It could be much worse.

CJ - Interesting numbers. What I'd like to see are Howard's hitting charts in different base-running situations. I think MLB may collect this data.


And Manuel took Eaton out with 2 on and 1 out in the 3rd, down just 1-0.

The Phillies went on to lose that game.

I guess it could be worse.

Go with Happ and have the bullpen ready at all times...

@Sophist's mention of hit tracker made me go over to http://www.hittrackeronline.com >hittrackeronline.com which doesn't have the info he wants. While there I noticed their stat called LUCKY homer which I'm sure Mets fans will enjoy as http://www.hittrackeronline.com/homeruns_special_luck.php?league=NL&type=L>Utley and Howard both appear high on there. Although, Mr. David Wright appears in both the hardball times and this article with his "just enough" homers. The definition of lucky required going to HardballTimes which had this http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/homer-tracker/>interesting article back in february, which described Geoff Jenkins (since we were talking about his worth in the previous thread) this way:


According to this, Geoff Jenkins, who signed a new contract with the Phillies this off-season, could be on the verge of a major collapse. He was terrific in 2005, but the next year—at age 31—he lost 20 points off his batting average and much of his power. Last year his batting average fell by another 15 points, and only his flukey power bounce masked his continued decline.

A very good player who falls apart in his early 30s is an all-too-common tale in this sport, and that's what you should expect to happen to Geoff Jenkins in 2008. Hell, if I lowered the cutoff to 15 homers, he'd still have the greatest percentage of cheapies.

Prescient.

Yeah, it could be worse. At this point last season, the Mets were 83-67 to our 81-69.

History doesn't need to repeat itself, we just need 7 or 8 of these next 12 to put us in with the Mets playing the Cubs, and us getting our hands on the Braves, whom we're 10-2 on the year against.

9 of 12 would be nice. You have to think 92 wins would be enough to make the playoffs.

It would also come damn close to my preseason prediction of 93 wins.

You don't a detailed statistical analysis to tell you Jenkins looks cooked. Even basic scouts who watched him over a month/two this year could have told you.

Its ashame because he's genuinely a good guy and everyone seemed to think the signing would work out. I really thought he'd be agreat fit as the platoon would cover his weakness against lefties. Its ashame that he appears to be finished. Standup guy though...I cant bash his attitude or effort.

8-4, will get the Phils to the playoffs. Win 2 out of 3 in each series (not asking that much with the teams they will be playing), and that's 8-4.

Phils win the division and the Mets win the Wild Card. Or if its the other way around, does it really matter? I think both are making it, with the Brewers in free-fall. If the Brewers lose tonight with Sabathia, they are toast. And, the Astros are in big trouble too, with this hurricane playing big havoc on them and their city.

One thing that would be very nice to do, is not have to worry about that final game against Washington. Hamels will likely start that game, if its needed (Myers, Moyer and Hamels will be the likely pitchers in that final series of the year). If its not a "must win"(best case scenario), then you can save Cole for the first game of the playoffs (or game 2, if you go with Myers in game 1) and save him the work-load.

But, that's putting the horse in front of the cart. Keep winning games, and things will take care of itself.

Jump on this young kid early tonight, and let Moyer do his thing. The Phils are due for a 11-3 type of win, where they can save the big bullpen guys and maybe get guys like Marson, Golson and Iguchi some PT, in the late innings. Hope this is the night.

mike - I recall Dave X having some interesting opinions about Jenkins as well. Something having to do with his LD% or BABIP. In any case, signs pointed to a loss in power, which not only lowered his power numbers but his BA as well.

I'm not convinced that Jenkins is completely done, though.

looks like werth between utley & howard...and it looks like kelly johnson isn't playing, but chipper is

Well 1 out of 2 ain't bad...splitting up the lefties...WOOHOO!!!

Hasn't Kelly Johnson been on fire lately?

And Amen to splitting up Utley and Howard.

Does Cholly read Beerleaguer (or have a minion who does)?

lovin the rlrl

Lets go Phils!!!

Splitting up the left-handers? That might be just crazy enough to work.

Braves are slightly better hitters against righties.

OPS
0.756 vs. Right
0.730 vs. Left

SLG
0.410 vs. Right
0.388 vs. Left

I like doubleh's lineup best.

It's possible that Jenkins is washed up at age 31, but it would be unusual. More likely: He bounces back next season.

The Happ decision is the correct one. One of these days his command will be as it was in LV and when that happens he's gonna surprise a few people.

Hopefully you're right on Jenkins clout...considering he's signed through next season.

you can't ignore HRs in a discussion about Howards run production

Well, I didn't see any ground balls to third base that inning. I saw a couple to second base, though.

Probably posted in an earlier thread, but scouting report on Parr?

I dunno, the Phils do much better against pitchers with whom they are familiar. They could have problems with Parr.

Why is Feliz playing?

pedro philles: Who's ignoring Howard's HR?

Well, Fla torching Oswalt so far. 4-0 after the 1st.

He may not have gotten a hit, but I have to admire Ruiz's at-bat there. 10 pitches? Is an impostor wearing his uniform?

strange: Ruiz has been much, much better at the dish since the ASB. Of course, there wasn't really anywhere to go but up...

Jorge Cantu.

At least Parr is throwing lots of pitches.

Tray: 150 2/3 IP, 3.58 RA, 1.24 WHIP, 125 SO
Double- and Triple-A

At MLB: 12 IP, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 SO, .833 WHIP.

Ruiz has had a good 2nd half.

I like the Happ decision as well. Charlie just needs to keep a short leash on him and be ready to have all hands on deck in the bullpen.

http://phightinphils.com

Funny, I didn't see any ground balls to third base that inning either. I did see yet another grounder to the right side though.

Starting KK was simply not an option, so I agree with the Happ decision too. I also agree with clout that, when Happ learns some command, he'll be a pretty good pitcher. Unfortunately, I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that he's anywhere near that point yet. So the Phillies had better win tonight because the probability of winning tomorrow is not terribly high.

Well Jimmy's doing his part. This would be a nice time for Utley to step up.

Nice job, Chase. Let's add on and end this thing early.

The think I like most is that this young rookie is racking up his pitch count...thanks Chooch.

Good work Chase.

That's the way, Werth!

werth hung in there and hit a bomb! (off a righty)

Werth's having such a great season. Can't say enough about it.

Can anyone hypothesize the logic/rationale for when Cholly splits up Utley and Howard and when he doesn't? I can't figure it out. I can't see a reason not to do it all the time.

Werth is becoming a really complete ballplayer.

Phils are playing some great baseball tonight. Fouling off lots of pitches, driving pitches over the plate.

Werth!

Is it my imagination or did the revival of the Phillies' offense almost exactly conicide with Cholly's decision to start playing Werth everyday?

We are Werthy

See, we said all day today how Werth should hit between Utley and Howard and look how it's paid off already!

Old man just keeps ticking along and putting up 0s on the board. Amazing.

Hope SE - Player comfort, for one. Also, the thought that Utley should be a #3 hitter (because of his power and ability to drive runs in.)

Look at Howard beat the shift. An very unlikely hit there.

Jayson Werth can't hit righties.

Let's be honest for a sec: Are the Phillies doing really well or are they just taking advantage of a rookie pitcher in a meaningless sept start for the Braves?

I don't particularly care as these games are just as important as beating a playoff team.

NEPP: I don't know about Werth, but Burrell can't hit them right now.

Manchine is like having a pitcher in the heart of the batting order anymore.

Uh, Steve Smith, uh...?

Well, that wasn't even close.

That was dumb, no chance for Howard to make it.

Man, the Phils have a huge hole in RF against righties without Jenkins...oh.

Aggressive Steve Smith does the Phils in again.

What happened? I can't watch because I'm stuck watching GameCast. Son is watching Elmo for the f'ing 300th time...

Wow, Ryno is slow. I guess they didn't want to leave it up to Mr. Happy.

Never mind; I see now.

And someone was just praising Smith today for his aggressiveness. Jinx works again!

vic has hit 7 hits in his last 7 AB. team record this year?

So that's what happens when you have a 3 run lead...damnit.

Feel free not to give up any runs here, guys.

"So that's what happens when you have a 3 run lead...damnit."

No, THIS is what happens when the Phillies have a 3-run lead.

Of course they just can't make it easy.


Jamie...Jamie...Jamie...oh man...


Is their any fan experience more annoying than listening to the heyyyy-oh-wayyyy-oh wayyy-oh wayy chant those idiot Braves fans do everytime a man gets on base?

~shakes head~

Motherfu....

At least Odalis is coming through for us.

eff it, Phils will get 'em back...

Damnit, Phillies! Don't make me right. Don't sweep the Brewers just to keep everyone interested and then lose to the f'ing Braves.

Usually, I like being right, but in this instance, I'd rather be wrong.

Alright. Phils are far from done with scoring. Let's hope Moyer settles a bit. You can't put the guys ahead of Chipper and McCann on base.

No score, bottom five in Washington, btw.

Score Cubs-Brewskis is 0-0 B1

Does this guy Parr look like the most hittable pitcher you have ever seen or is it just me??


I hope that stupid decision by "Send him home" Smith to send Howard to the third out doesnt loom large.

I think Tatis is hurt in Washington

Incidentally . . . lots of action in that last half inning, but no balls hit to third base.

I'll take credit for that reverse-reverse BL jinx!!

chooooooooch


CHOOCHIE!!!

chooooooooch

Wow. I didn't think Carlos Ruiz could hit a golf ball that far, let alone a baseball.

Chooch.

"He got in the Cadillac right away"

- Sarge

You know a guy's hittable when Feliz takes 4 pitches before even thinking about swinging.

BAP, you're missing the point: The braves are so intimidated by Feliz's glove that they are deliberately not hitting balls to 3B.

OMG did carlos ruiz really just hit a home run!?!?!? ok if that can happen then the phillies can def make the playoffs!

Play Werth every day.
Play Dobbs every day.
Upgrade pitching.
Replace Burrell's production.

Is this gonna turn into a barnburner like the Cowgirls/Eagles game last night?

I sure hope not. I still have the shakes from that game.

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