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Saturday, August 30, 2008


Phillies Suck!

Big game today for obvious reasons.
I think any rational Phils fan entered this series pinpointing this game as the most "winnable" game on paper, and therefore the most important for the Phils to pick up.
A solid outing from Myers is necessary, but everything will go for naught unless the offense steps it up with a consistent attack. And Lilly is actually one of the few lefties who really struggles against left-handed hitting - lefties are hitting .314 against him - so the only two lefties likely to be in the lineup today (Utley and Howard) ideally would need to step it up and carry the offense for the afternoon.

Avoiding a sweep is imperative as I really dont want to see the Phillies go to Shea next weekend any further than 2 games out max.

Ms. Palin, the question is, what do you suck?

We need a solid start from Myers today but I would love a good ole Wrigley slugfest - we're due for one of those. This is August, isn't it?

Well, Phils need a huge outing from Myers today and he has a chance to show that he is a legit frontline starter.

I'll settle for Myers keeping the ball in the park. we need our lineup to score some runs so our starters (and bullpen) don't have to be "huge".

When the comment is "Phillies Suck!" how can you tell if it's a troll or one of us?

The point on JRoll "being an average player" or "playing to his career numbers" are foolish. It is not apt to compare JRoll to the player he is now to his numbers from his first few seasons in the league (2001-03).

Basically, after the 2003 season JRoll began to physically mature (put on a bit more muscle) and became much more selective at the plate. If you look at this splits the last three years (a more accurate reflection of the player JRoll has become), you get the .288/.339/.481 splits. Compare that to .266/.334/.430 this year.

Basically, if you look through the underlying numbers a couple of things jump out:

1. JRoll's BABIP this year is .280 which is well below his career number of .299 so it means that JRoll probably has been a bit unlikely so far. With a few more breaks his AVG would probably be around .275-.280.

2. JRoll's %BB rate is slightly up and his %K is slightly down. Hard to make much of this but when JRoll's power really picked up the past years, his %BB declined and his %K increased.

3. Most importantly, JRoll's GB/FB ratio is 1.44 (which is higher than at almost any point in his career) and his HR/FB is 7.0% which is also well below the last two years. So not only is JRoll hitting the ball much more on the ground this season but his power numbers are also way down on FB too.

It looks like JRoll has been a bit unlucky (BABIP) but it looks like JRoll has become slightly more selective this season at the plate but this tradeoff has resulted in a big decrease in his power numbers.

It might be due to his leg injury (which might be lingering) and rob JRoll of his ability to drive the ball this season. The talk of him being a "diminished player" are largely bunk too since he is just 29. If he was 32 or 33, I would say this argument would have some more merit.

The increased power numbers are what made JRoll a more elite SS the past two years and those just haven't been there so far this year. My bet is that JRoll rebounds a bit next year when he is healthy and puts up better power numbers (20-25 HRs) which would likely put his SLG pct in the .480-.500 range and would a big increase from this year.

Just getting wins is whats important I don't care if it's as a result of strong pitching or they tear they cover off the ball you do need to mix in some of both for an extended win streak

Given that the Phils haven't "torn the cover off the ball" all month, they are going to need some really solid staring pitching today if they want to win.

MG: To say that his current numbers only resemble his first few seasons is just wrong.

"It is not apt to compare JRoll to the player he is now to his numbers from his first few seasons in the league (2001-03)".

How about 2004-2006?
2004: 102
2005: 97
2006: 101
2008: 96

Seems pretty consistent to me. The only aberration is 2007's 118. I agree with you that his BAPIP is low, he has been a little unlucky. If that corrects he would go back to a 100-102 OPS+.

"The increased power numbers are what made JRoll a more elite SS the past two years and those just haven't been there so far this year."

Sorry, 2006 Rollins was anything but elite. 101 OPS+. Basicly the same as 08, 05 and 04. Sure he had more home runs, but his slugging was only .470 leading to a mediocre OPS+.

Excluding 2007, Jimmy Rollins is playing to his career numbers even if you ignore those early seasons. Sorry your argument is just bogus.

If the Phils lose this one, I don't know what I'll do.

NegativePhan, but what will you do if they win?

PhilR - Do you understand what OPS+ actually represents? It is takes a player's OPS and compares it to the entire LEAGUE average adjusted for ballpark.

However, it is not ADJUSTED FOR POSITION. Would you compare the performance of an F-150 to a Focus? Of course not. It is not apt to compare JRoll OPS to that of someone like Howard or Burrell. You have to compare Howard's OPS against other cleanup hitters or 1B. The same goes for JRoll.

OPS+ is a nice number but of limited value. Look at it solely to compare a player's performance is awfully foolish.

PhilR is the example of a simpleton analysis. You don't take a single number and make it the basis of your analysis. Nor do you take a number that is not necessarily the most ideal number and try to compare a player's performance to it.

Self proclaimed #1 Negadelphian here to announce that Season = Over.


Utley is horrible and gave a terrible relay throw on that botched double play that lead to the first run on rollins error.

If you want the most simple explanation it is this - What elevated JRoll's offensive value the past two years were the HR numbers (and to a lesser degree the number of 3Bs in 2007).

This year, JRoll had 2 HRs in his first 35 ABs before got hurt. Since then, he has had 7 HRs in 416 ABs.

That in a nutshell is why JRoll's numbers are off this year.

Nervous. Scared. For the season and Myers.

oh no, jeff foxowrthy doing postseason commercials. this broadcast is the worst.

Wow. What a beautiful day in Chicago. Wish I was at the game instead of indoors stuck in the 2-hr of a 3/4 hr fantasy draft.

damn, that hit utley in the ear guard

hopefully myers takes care of that.

Machine first pitch swinging at a terrible pitch.

Starting to think ChUtley should just automatically be awarded 1B to prevent possibly injury/worsening of assumed existing injury.

Hit-and-run with a 3-1 count with Howard up against a lefty? WTF.

Love what Vic has given the Phils but I don't understand why they don't have Werth in the 5th spot and Vic in the 6th spot.

Middle of the lineup (3-5) has killed this team this month.

that was pathetic

If Myers can continue this shutout streak, and Lilly is apparently a HR pitcher (kinda like Myers used to be, hmm?), prevailing logic says we should win this game no problem. C'mon Myerscompletegameshutout!

that was sweet, buzzed him inside, then dropped the hammer on him. sit down, ramirez

Please note, posters who keep saying that Myers is a fastball pitcher, that both Ks came on his 12-6 curve.

MG: Actually OPS+ is the best offensive measure there is. The problem with phillr and the posters from the last thread is they don't understand OPS+ and the importance of position. As you note, OPS+ is meaningful only within the context of position. By any reasonable measure a shortstop with an OPS+ of 98 who has Rollins glove and speed is an above-average player. Those who use OPS+ to say he's just an average player are ignorant.

Cubs are a good team that has gotten better since the Harden/Gaudin trade but I don't see why the announcers are gushing over so much. A ton of comeback wins and their ridiculously lopsided record at Wrigley say to me "pretty good but not great team."

Clout - It is just a single number though that has it flows including giving even weight to OBP and SLG. Better than using just raw numbers but still has some very important caveats.

MG, ESPN has the Red Sox, FOX has the Cubs. There's so much hype or excitement, depending on your point of view, around the team this year because it's been 100 years since they won the WS. In my bitter Philly-phan opinion, they're stealing our thunder.

That is one major difference between the Cubs/Phils - a true utility guy like DeRosa who play multiple positions and contribute some real pop off the bench.

MG, don't you think Werth could eventually fill that role?

another blown call

fix is in

Fukudome was out. Bad call.

Another blown call leading to another run. Some great umpiring goining on in this series.

bullshit ump call

Those bad calls are really stacking up against us.

RIP Myers shutout innings.

JMS - No because Werth can't play the INF or really CF. He really is a corner OF.

Myers has to show some real composure here and get out of this inning without any further damage.

Wicked curve. Myers has really got that working today which is a good sign.

good job myers, kept his cool. 1 run coulda easily been 3

That's a shame, because having him as a potential backup 3B would be nice if we got another bat for RF. Actually, isn't he the backup catcher?

That is the major difference since Myers is back - much more confidence in the curve and composure on the mound. I have to admit that I have been pretty impressed by Myers since he has returned but the question is can he ever sustain this over the course of an entire season? If he could, he would be a 15-16 game winner on a good club.

I hate bitching about blown calls because they happen all the time, but they've happened alot over the past 2 games, so I feel the need to do so.

If the Phillies lose this game the season is over. We'll be 3 back and the Mets will have their way with us at Shea as they have all season.

Lilly is the kind of guy that once he settles in, he is really tough. If the Phils don't get to him in this inning, I bet that Lilly go 7 today with little damage.

Phanatic, the Mets are due for a good choke. We'll be fine.

I think Rollins had the worst Burger King Hot Zone I think I have sever seen on Fox. That sums it up for this team's offense.

Anyone who wants to understand the disappointment with Rollins needs to look at his 85 game stretch from May 19th to his recent hot streak. Remember he started the season hitting .340 to May 18th.

The biggest difference between Cubs and Phils to me is bottom of the lineup. Bottom 3 Cubs hitters OPS+: 125, 96, 124.
Bottom 3 Phils hitters: 122, 84, 104 and that's misleading because Werth usually bats higher. When Vic bats 6th and Ruiz plays, the black hole is 101, 84, 60. Pretty bad.

Nice one, Howard. Ramirez has 44 RBI from the 7th inning on...geeze. That is certainly the difference between the Cubs and the Phils.

Theriot looked out on the last replay they showed, which was an excellent tag by Utley. Quick release from Coste.

Was he out or safe?

Cubs have gotten benefit of calls against the Phils all season--remember the HR earlier that lost us game 3 of the series? You'd think with Instant Replay breathing down their necks, they'd be working to improve calling the game, not actively trying to get replaced by robots.

wow escaping that without a run(s)

Howard - Useless against LHP in '08.

The Phillies can't hit LHP!

It's too bad they released Benson, I would have liked to see him traded in a minor deal instead of a low/mid level prospect.

This team should buried Dempster on Thursday night leading to an easy win. They had Harden on the roaps early. They get their 1-2 hitters on base to start the game, but have not gotten a guy on base since - 12 outs ago. This team will will the division if they hit, but they can't hit. They are a bunch of guess-hitting slow pitch soft ball players with a hitting "coach".

I really wanted DeRosa when he was a free agent. Instead, we got Helms.

doubleh: Thank goodness. Now we're done with all those silly posts about how Benson is coming, Benson's the answer, why don't we bring up Benson etc. etc. etc.

Myers hasn't been locating his fastball as well today nor has his velocity been there either. Hopefully he can get through get another inning without any further damage.

This is RIDICULOUS. Ridiculous.

phReed: I disagree. This is a team of undisciplined fastball hitters who swing at pitches out of the zone and does a very poor job with breaking stuff unless a pitcher hangs one.

That was a lucky break. Maybe Howard got his left foot barely but it look like Lilly was safe.

MG: The Cubs only run came on a hanging curve to Soto. But you're right, his command is off and they're lacing the ball for singles. He's doing his Kyle Kendrick impression.

clout: I'm with you. If Benson had come up this season it would have been the equivalent of a white flag. Glad we never saw him.

Alright. Hard to believe it is a 1-1 game.

Clout, sad thing is that they are both.

I know Werth can't hit rightites consistently, but he is one of a few to exceed expectations on this squad.

Boy, does this team need a 2-out hit from Vic right now.

wow we better score

come on jason smack one

Boy, does this team need a 2-out hit from Werth right now.

there we go nice!!

big at bat right here

how about THAT slide!


Howard's slide!!!!

wow big surprise right there lol

pHreed, keep the psychic predictions coming, ok?

Wow, what a great slide from Howard there. Keep it going, boys!

man i guess brett is really back now

Great spin throw by Pete.

That inning was Pedro Feliz in a nutshell: An awful at-bat and weak pop-up, and a very good play in the field.

What a slide by Howard huh?

Best thing about Howard last inning was staying tough in an 0-2 count and taking that 1-2 offspeed pitch to RF. One of Howard's more impressive ABs recently against LHP.

Dare I say that Cubs fans boo more than we do?

Brett needs to tackle the 8th, it has been our thorn.

I think we can officially say it now: Brett Myers is back.

Brett looking like King Cole, Charlie won't dare ask him to sit next inning.

Wth is going on with Pat's slump?

wife beater is pitching well today.

...and Ryan Howard is doing everything well today.

nice shot ryno

oh well, just gotta beat Nolasco tonight

big guy doing what that 10 mil was paid for i feel a W tomorrow


Finally some home runs in Wrigley! Let's get some more.

werth two dinger day!

The Cubs basically gave up on the game by leaving in a lefty to face Werth. They decided it was better off, down 3 runs, just to save the bullpen. Right? Otherwise it's just idiotic.

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