Reading media hot for Marson, cool on Carrasco

On Sunday, Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle polled local media, including yours truly, to rank the top 15 minor leaguers in the Phillies’ chain.

Here’s the current pecking order, according to Reading-based experts: 1). Lou Marson; 2). Michael Taylor; 3). Carlos Carrasco; 4). Jason Donald; 5). Joe Savery; 6). Greg Golson; 7). Dom Brown; 8). J.A. Happ; 9). Kyle Drabek; 10). Drew Naylor; 11). Quintin Berry; 12). Antonio Bastardo; 13). Andrew Carpenter; 14). Travis d’Arnaud; 15). Freddy Galvis.

Beerleaguer: I’m not the greatest at compiling prospect rankings, but here’s mine. The local writers didn’t see enough consistency from Carrasco in Double-A, but I kept the 21-year-old righty first, followed by Marson, Drabek, Taylor, Brown, Donald, Savery, Happ, Galvis, d’Arnaud, Sampson, Knapp, Bastardo, Mattair, Golson.

If Adrian Cardenas had not been traded, he would have been my first overall. I made a mistake including Mattair, who was supposed to hit for power, but has done nothing. A better choice would have been Berry. I'm not ready to move Taylor to No. 2, but he's definitely rising fast, although he's a little older at 22. I’m not sure how Naylor jumps quite so high on the local list. He was rated 29th by Baseball America this offseason and is just a little too old to be marginal at Class-A Clearwater. And Golson ... there’s a soft spot for Golson because he works hard and is eager to improve, but I’ve seen too many Golson types amount to nothing to include him any higher than 15. I passed on Carpenter. I probably rated Drabek, Brown and Galvis higher than anyone. Galvis's glove is reportedly world-class at shortstop at age 18. I'll definitely include that skill in my top eight, ahead of guys like Bastardo and Golson, who are four years older. Knapp, a big, tall right-hander who was taken in the second round of June's draft, looks great so far.

Comments

[baxter]

(not including 2008 draft picks)

1)Carrasco
2)Marson
3)Donald
4)Taylor
5)Drabek
6)D'Arnaud
7)Golson
8)Happ
9)Savery
10)Galvis
11)Brown
12)Bastardo
13)Sampson
14)Naylor
15)Berry

[Tony D]

Hopefully one of these guys will see the majors before 2013

[Brian G]

How can Happ not be above Golson on anyone's list? Happ has shown himself as ready to be at least a solid 4/5 in a major league rotation. Shouldn't the near certainty of that count for more? Golson is a strong defensive OF but who looks like he'll end up at the plate as a poor man's Pedro Feliz, with a low OBP that will negate his speed.
If we traded Happ for a guy like Golson, is there anyone here who wouldn't be seriously ticked?

[Wes Chamberlain]

The front office is not going to be any more excited about starting their "service time" in 2013 either.

From what I understand once your service time starts, you get 3 years until you are arbitration eligible. So I am guessing that the FO plan is to not bring anyone up until they are 26. Then you get their best 3 years without having to pay them very much, a couple of arbitration years where you have to pay them what they are worth and then by the time they are eligible for free agency you let them go because they are past their prime.

It really is a brilliant business plan. Along with the Eagles brilliance at managing the salary cap, who cares about winning World Series or SuperBowls, we have great business men to look up to.

[Edmundo]

I'm hoping that having a guy like Happ around 8th is a sign that the farm system has turned a corner. Happ looks like a serviceable #5 started, at minimum. If the team really has 7 better prospects, that's not a bad sign. Starting next year we'll start to see the impact of having depth at the minors when injuries strike the big club.

[NEPP]

Most lists are done on potential and Golson has more potential/projection than Happ in alot of people's eyes. Happs basically the finished product right now...its all a matter of how you weigh certain things.

[Tony D]

Speaking of prospects Anthony Hewitt is getting blown away for the GCL Phillies.

53 K's in 107 Ab's.

[PB]

Nice to see Drabek as your #5. I like the approach to his surgery; get it done early and rehab while you're still in the minors. Have a feeling he will be a strong addition to the rotation someday.

[Dull]

Carrasco is the only lock for the major league rotation of the pitchers listed and is the only one who can top out in the mid 90's. To me the biggest scandal is why Carrasco was more down than up at Reading and has pitched so much mroe effectively at AAA than AA. Of the rest Drabek reportedly hit 92 at Auburn in his first NY-Penn start. The jury is still out on him. Savery will needs to be a ground ball pitchers to make it to the majors. His DH work, the first ever for a pitcher in the FSL, might be an admission that he does not have major league stuff and we will see him at first base when Howard is moved. Bastardo threw everything up when I saw him and that won't work at CBP. Naylor has a great breaking ball like Brett Myers but has a fastball only in the high 80's. That might not work in the bigs. Carpenter does not throw hard enough to be a ML starter but Filer was praising his "fork" ball in a recent Steve Degler interview. Haven't heard that description used for a pitch in a long time. As a betting man who has seen them all pitch except Drabek, Carrasco is the only one that I would bet the house on to pitch in a major league rotation.

[CJ]

Dull: Um... hasn't JA Happ shown an ability to pitch in a major league rotation already?

And Savery as Howard's replacement at first base?

Strange, strange stuff...

[MG]

This list strikes me of being very similiar to the mid-90s list that came out. No real "stud prospects" and only really a few guys who might make an impact on this team in the next year or so.

[NEPP]

Well Savery DHed for a college team and has PH for a Single A team...logically he could easily step in and replace a former MVP and HR champ....seriously can we stop saying Savery can come in and be a great hitter? He's a lefty pitcher with decent to good stuff...why not try that instead with him? He has a better future as a pitcher.

[Brian]

Tony D,

The FO will have you know that they asked Hewitt to take all strike 3 calls in fear that ground outs will ruin his psyche and the upside to him striking out for power outwieghs real baseball

[NEPP]

In his start against the PawSox last week, Carrasco was steadily at 93/94 even into the 6th and 7th innings...he looked real good against some decent hitters. He can occasionally hit 96 but he works in the 91-93 range usually...93/94 means he was really on.

[GM-Carson]

Young catcher Travis D'Arnaud and Jeremy Slayden deserve some attention. I think Slayden would be a perfect 4th outfielder in late 2009. D'Arnaud is hitting a ton this season right now.

[NEPP]

D'Arnaud might be special one day...He's great defensively and looks to have a decent bat too...and he's only 19.

I don't like Slayden though.

[J. Weitzel]

Carson: I rated d'Arnaud 9th. Slayden is a non prospect because of his age and limited speed/defense. He wouldn't be a good fourth outfielder.

[NEPP]

Slayden's what? 26? Too old to be even a Tweener type guy.

[CJ]

John Maine to the 15 day DL.

[EastFallowfield]

John Maine to the DL.

[NEPP]

~starts applauding~

That's ashame.

[EastFallowfield]

I did do a refresh before I posted to make sure it hadn't been posted already-D'OH!

[Sam]

Of course not to gloat too much about misfortunes to anybody, pelfrey is about to hit his innings cap also, although in fairness, so is cole hamels...

[CJ]

Sam: I'm not sure that's a valid comparison. Hamels has pitched 188.2 innings this year compared to 183.1 last year and 181.1 the year before that.

Pelfrey, on the other hand, has pitched 154.0 innings this year compard to 152.2 last year and 117.1 the year before that.

And 2006 was Pelfrey's first year in professional ball while Hamels pitched 101 innings back in 2003.

[EastFallowfield]

The current conventional wisdom holds that young pitchers who increase their workloads by more than 35 innings per year run a greater risk of injury in both the short-term and the long. Pelfrey went up by 51 from 06 to 07, and if he makes five more starts and averages seven innings per start, he'll be at 189. That would be an increase of 37 with the playoffs (they hope) still waiting to take it higher.

From the Star-Ledger.

[doubleh]

Seems were all looking a little ragged these days in the good ol' NL East.

Meanwhile, the Rays are dropping like proverbial flies, yet somehow they still keep finding ways to win.

[CJ]

EFF: Right. Pelfrey climbed from '06 to '07 and will likely increase from '07 to '08. Hamels, on the other hand, saw little increase from '06 to '07... and despite being the same age, Hamels has a few more years of professional baseball under his belt.

[PhillyFriar]

My two cents...

Marson
Carrasco
Donald
d'Arnaud
Brown
Taylor
Drabek
Happ
Savery
Golson
Collier
Garcia
Naylor
Knapp
Worley

Love Galvis' glove, but the hitting needs to improve beyond utility IF level for me to include him in the Top 15.

And Jason: props on rating d'Arnaud higher than the consensus. I love Dom Brown, but d'Arnaud actually put up better numbers in the NYPL than Brown did (at the same age) while playing a more demanding defensive position. Oh, and he's apparently a very good defensive catcher.

[CJ]

If the Phils end up winning the division over the Mets, it could come down to how the teams have performed late in games. According to b-r.com's splits, here's how they compare when hitting late in games (OPS):

Late & Close: Phi .767, NY .706
High Leverage: Phi .754, NY .712
Innings 7-9: Phi .744, NY .666
Vs. Relivers: Phi .768, NY .667

And here's how they compare when pitching late in games (opp. OPS):

Save Situation: Phi .573, NY .648
As a Reliver: Phi .694, NY .721
Late & Close: Phi .724, NY .756
High Leverage: Phi .741, NY .724
Innings 7-9: Phi .689, NY .728

[doubleh]

I think Hamels has also learned to be a bit more economical with his pitches as he's progressed. That can only help in the long run.

[mike cunningham]

@doubleh --

Pitches per inning for Cole:

2006: 16.45
2007: 15.21
2008: 14.66

[mike cunningham]

Looking at 07 versus 2008, in roughly the same amount of innings pitched, it's amazing how close the two seasons have been for Cole. Overall slight improvements in nearly all categories, like baserunners allowed etc.

But at the end of the day he's 11-8 when he could very well be 15-5 like last year.

[doubleh]

@mike cunningham: Thanks for the stats--I'm really too lazy to go find them most days.

Wonder if Moyer has had an affect on him with regard to pitch economy. Moyer has always been all about getting the guy out with as few pitches as possible as opposed to going for the strikeout.

Are Hamels' strikeouts down as a result of his throwing fewer pitches?

[CJ]

mike: Good information there. Pelfrey is throwing 16.6 pitches per inning this year which is 1.1 pitches fewer per inning than last year.

[CJ]

doubleh: Or is Hamels throwing fewer pitches because his strikeouts are down?

[Sophist]

mike - I'm guessing Hamels largely has the Phils' poor offensive performance against top pitchers to blame for that record.

CJ - Phils have been a better team late in games than the Mets. Their bullpen is better and their offense is better against the typical worse arms that are hidden in other team's pens. However, lately the Mets have been scoring all their runs early (it seems.)

[kells]

Watching DNL. Beat writer David Murphy seems terrifed to express his opinion on any matter. Rich Hoffman asked him about Colin's article about the phillies refusing to bring up Marson/Donald for a Sep. callup. Murphy stated that the Phillies need to learn to win w/ their current roster if they expext to win in October Yeah dave-releasing Taguchi & bringing up Donald or another bat will kill the team.

[CJ]

Interesting to see what the Mets do later this week. In an effort to keep Pelfrey's IPs down, they have Stokes scheduled to start next Sunday in Pelfrey's place, and that's even with a scheduled day off for the Mets on Thursday.

Without Maine pitching Friday, I suppose they could move Perez up a day (he'd be pitching on regular rest since Thursday is an offday), and Stokes on Saturday in Pelfrey's place and then be back on their regular rotation with Pedro on Sunday. Of course, I'm sure they'd like to get Pedro an extra day if they can as well.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread.

[bob]

couple of thoughts on comments posted over the last two threads...

1) donald and marson definitely stepped up to the pressure of the Olympics well; unlike the big name prospects like LaPorta, who were swinging wildly for the fences for each at-bat. i would definitely like to see them called up soon.

2) people have been complaining that utley and rollins haven't clicked yet. at this point, i'm going to think optimistically and believe that they can't fundamentally be this bad over this long a time period; in fact, as opposed to last year when players like utley and rollins peaked a little early and had nothing left for the playoffs, i'm hoping that they get hot starting mid-september and keep it going until november.

3) this offensive slumping could actually be a good thing; it puts pressure on our pitching staff to shut teams down, and learn how to pitch under constant pressure knowing they have to keep the other team under 3 runs to win. it's like they turned into the A's and Padres' staff over the last few months (a feat much more impressive considering they're pitching in CBP). so far, they've responded beautifully and when the offense comes around heading into the playoffs, this team is going to be fun to watch. so long as this staff keeps shutting other teams down.

4) re: trading victorino -- his name only came up in trades for guys like Sabathia, Halladay or Holliday. I love what Vic brings to this team as much as anybody, but looking at what Sabathia has brought to MIL, I'd be on the proverbial fence in deciding whether giving up Vic (and others) is worth it. But bottom line is that those guys are rentals, and keeping a healthy Vic for the next several years is going to be key for this team. For whatever reason, I love guys who play sports with a "football" mentality; the way AI and Lebron play basketball and the way Vic runs the bases.

5) i was totally off on predicting that the Phillies would take off prior to the Dodgers series in LA. But here's to hoping they get incrementally better while gaining ground on the hurting Mets, without blowing their load before October.

[slowhand]

Victorino is fast, hardnosed, and good defensively. Offensively, he swings at too many first pitches (like the rest of the team), can't keep the ball on the ground because he has a tremendous loop in his swing so you can't hit and run with him. He won't bunt. He doesn't walk. Move him for pitching because the right team may look at his numbers and overvalue him.

[WillyFromPhilly]

I think a lot of writers and posters have d'Arnaud ranked way too low. This kid can rip. I'm ranking him #1 on my list. Should have been in Lakewood all year instead of Williamsport. Should start in AA in 2010.