A gentlemanly exchange between rival blog sites

In the spirit of brotherly love (i.e. killing space and increasing page traffic before the start of the Mets game) we reopen the information superhighway between Metsblog and Beerleaguer.

Metsblog contributor Mike Nichols reintroduces the long-lost art of the Q&A exchange with a well-informed grilling about the state of the Phillies. Click here to read what I have to say about Brett Myers, productive outs, Pat Burrell’s struggles at home and my response to this tough one: “What do you believe the Phillies biggest issue is going into the final month of the season?”

Meanwhile, Nichols offers five keys for the Mets this series:

Mets Bullpen: Obviously the Mets bullpen is the most important factor coming into the series. With the absence of Billy Wagner and no proven closer among the group, it will be a tricky proposition to expect them to hold any lead, especially against the Phillies. Since this rivalry started to take shape in 2006, the Phillies have always had great success against the Mets bullpen. Jerry Manuel has done a good job trying to work matchups in his favor - however, I do believe he is relying too heavily on Aaron Heilman of late - but ultimately it comes down to execution and very rarely have they done that this season. If Manuel is forced to get anything more than 12 total outs from his bullpen in this series, the odds shift heavily in the Phillies favor.

Hitting late: The Mets lead the league in runs in the first inning with 111 and have scored in the first frame in 14 of their last 18 games. They've gotten off to good starts this season, but on the flip side, they are last in the league with 142 runs scored between innings 7-9. The Mets cannot afford for their bats to go silent late in these games, especially with their bullpen, which is last in the league in ERA since the All-Star break, facing a Phillies offense that does a terrific job coming back in games versus the Mets. If they get an early lead, they'll need to continue to build on it, or it could be a recipe for disaster.

The Two Starters: It's important for Pedro Martinez, who is 1-1 with a 3.16 ERA since coming of the disabled list on August 1, to set the tone in tonight's first game. I don't expect him to go more than six innings, but if he matches innings with Jaime Moyer I will be more happy. The key for Pedro is to get out of the first inning - he has allowed six homeruns and 15 first inning runs this season. It's also important for Johan Santana to continue his good August (3-0, 1.49 ERA) and provide the Mets with another dominate start against the Phillies, who are hitting just .209 against him this season.

Jose Reyes: As they say, 'as Reyes goes, so go the Mets.' And his season splits prove it. In the Mets 73 wins this season, Reyes is hitting .324 with 43 extra-bases hits, 40 RBI and 71 runs scored. In their 59 losses, Reyes is hitting only .269 with 19 extra-base hits, 13 RBI and 20 runs scored. For the Mets to be successful in this series, Reyes needs to get on base and cause havoc.

Jerry Manuel: It would rare that I would consider a manager a key to the game, however, Jerry Manuel's late-inning decision making will be key. Manuel is going to be have to very careful of how he handles his starters. If you remember, Johan Santana was lifted in the eighth inning his last two starts versus the Phillies - both dominate performances - after throwing 95 and 105 pitches, respectfully. In both cases the Mets bullpen blew the lead and eventually lost the game. I think he has learned from those mistakes, but still, Manuel's late-inning choices in the next two games could be a determining factor if the Mets are successful in this series.

Thanks to Mike Nichols for his report, and as always, check out Metsblog for all your needs from Queens.

Comments

[king myno]

If clout does somehow end up to be Conlin or Gillick, they should be ashamed of themselves for spending so much time on a Phillies blog rather than helping improve/covering the team adequately.

[EastFallowfield]

Keep wondering when Jerry Manuel's use of the starters is going to catch up to him.

He's now pitching them all the maximum he can get out of 'em, pitching them often an inning or two longer than he normally would.

Their talk of skipping Pelfrey once or twice to preserve his arm has gone out the window with Maine's injury. Apparently, Maine being hurt means that Pelfrey's arm just got healthier.

And not only is their bullpen suspect, J.Manuel does seem to go for a lot of matchups, changing pitchers multiple times in the middle innings like he's Tony LaRussa. A lot of Mets near the top of the 'games pitched' standings. He seems to run through pitchers faster than most, which helps our chances of seeing an extra inning game where Heilman has to go 2,3,4 innings.

[TK]

Looks like the MetsBlog post calmed down the comments section over there, for now...

[drew]

It's a relatively small sample, but Ayala has been outstanding for the Mets so far. At this point, if someone has to go more than an inning, I'd let him go.

[doubleh]

The comments to Weitzel's info weren't even really that hostile...yet.

[EastFallowfield]

Still the usual pleas for the Mets pitchers to hit as many Phils with pitches as possible.

You don't find that kind of insight everywhere.

[NEPP]

The funny thing is that Bill James did this odd study that basically stated that every player does much better when his team wins compared to when it loses...so the Reyes thing is a kinda "No Crap" comment. Its a chicken and egg argument essentially.

[doubleh]

drew: You just better make sure he doesn't sit too close to Heilman, Schoenweis or Feliciano or they'll suck the excellence right out of him. /sarcasm

[drew]

HH - tell me about it. i hope he hasn't made friends with anyone in the bullpen. he should stick close to pelfrey right now.

[TK]

Other than the offense coming around (obviously) I think the biggest concern going into next month is definitely the Lidge Bridge. Durbin has been very shaky in the past couple weeks, and a fall to career norms seems more likely than not. I still really like Romero but he still tends to have control lapses. And I officially don't trust Madson in any close game.

[EastFallowfield]

The difference between 07 Romero and 08 Romero seems to me that Charlie left him in last year to get out of his own messes and seems to yank him more this year. Whether he got out of those jams last year due to grit and determination, focus, or dumb luck, he seemed to do it a lot.

Having Romero put runners on for Madson to inherit doesn't seem like a good plan to me.

[Something Stinks And I Think Its The Phillies]

That Reyes thing isn't totally true. When Delgado does good, the Mets usually prosper.

[EastFallowfield]

Yeah, and when David Wright does well the Mets cough up a 7 game lead with 17 to play.

Team game.

[Wes Chamberlain]

When Reyes, Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Easley, Chavez, Church, Schneider, Castillo, the starting pitcher and the bullpen play well, the Mets always win!

[EastFallowfield]

And when Endy Chavez makes the greatest catch ever the Mets always lose...

[slowhand]

Mark Kotsay has cleared waivers and the Phils reportedly have interest.

Rollins
Werth/Kotsay
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Victorino
Feliz
Catcher

Looking better.

[GM-Carson]

I'd love to insert Kotsay's average into our low average lineup. Extra base hits are great, but I'd like a singles hitter or two mixed in to make sure we're at least getting hits sometimes.

[Slo]

Werth and Kotsay platooning in the 2 hole would give us some flexibilty to hit and run. Victorino just can't/won't do it. I don't imagine that the Braves would be asking for a ton.

[Brian]

JW good Q&A session on the Metsblogger but I do have to criticize one thing is JROLL really in a down year or simply reverting back to career norms? His runs are low even for him but other than that he is right around his career averages. In my opinion and yes hopefully I am wrong I just think last year was a career year for him and he is just going back to his normal hitting .270 self.

I have a good feeling about Moyer tonight ... its kendrick tomorrow that scares me now with that being said since ill be at the game Moyer goes a 1/3 of an inning gives up 10 runs.

@Wes Chamberlain... that's a funny study you know when Rollins, Utley, Burrell, Howard, Victorino, Werth, Feliz, Ruiz, Pitcher do well the Phils are unstoppable... I agree with the sentiment that that is the dumbest study of baseball data out there. It's like saying in football well if Mcnabb goes 20 for 20 with 300 yards and 4 TD's in a game the Eagles will win... DUH!

[MG]

Good feedback from the folks at Metsblog although the numbers of Mets' trolls on here is going to be pretty large if the Phils lose tonight.

[CJ]

Re: Kotsay

Clout has declared we can not discuss a Kotsay deal because there is no way the Phils spend $1.5M and a mid-level prospect to rent him for 35 ABs. Case closed.

Re: Dobbs vs. Feliz

I can't believe people are still arguing that Feliz's defense is so superior that it makes up for the difference in offense vs. RHP. Feliz is TERRIBLE against RHP. He has a .664 OPS and makes an out more than 7 out of 10 times at the plate. Greg Dobbs has an .815 OPS vs. righties and an OBP that is 50 points higher. Even Dobbs OPS as a third baseman (brought down because he occassional faces lefties there) is 100 points higher than Feliz's OPS vs. righties.

Oh... but Dobbs' zone rating is too low. I forgot.

[CJ]

Brian: Rollins "career averages" are misleading. In his last four seasons, his OPS+ averages above 100... but this year he's down at about 90. Rollins became a significantly better offensive player the last four years than he was at the beginning of his career. What we should expect from J-Roll is more in line with the last 4 years... so, yes, he's having a down year.

[drew]

oh, i'm already here trolling around. figured i'd get a headstart.

[Brian]

@CJ ... I stand corrected

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I think the Kotsay/$1.5 mil thing is just so when the Phillies don't get him, we can say "they didn't want to spend the money!!". When the truth *could* be the Braves wanted to send him to the AL or something.

[CJ]

Bed Beard: Yeah, it was discussed briefly... but no one is sure the Braves would even be willing to deal Kotsay in the division, especially if the Red Sox are a willing partner.

[Marc H]

If thje Phillies lose tonight, the Mets Blog cretins will act as if their magic number is 1.

[CJ]

Marc H: I hope so... nothing was more fun that watching the Magic Number graphic on Metsblog last year!!!

[Marc H]

That having been said, I'm hoping the Phillies can split these two (hopefully win tonight and avoid the necessity of having to beat Santana), take 1 in NY and let performance against common opponents dictate who wins this thing. These 5 games are only significant if one team wins more than 3 of them,

[Fuquamanuel]

Do you think he knows that "dominate" as he uses it twice is a verb? "Dominant", on the other hand, is an adjective and would be the appropriate word in this case.

[Marc H]

They don't speak the King's English in Queens!!

[ilovetrolling]

lets go mets

[Steve]

Don't worry about us Met fans. We lost the lead last year because we couldn't beat the dregs in the league like the Nationals and Marlins. No, it didn't help to lose to the Phills, but it was the last week of the season that did the Mets in. That being said, these next two games are not even close to being the be all and end all of the season. Like I mentioned on another thread, a two game lead either way is far from insurmountable.

[ilovetrolling]

well, as we learned, we are going to need at least an 8 game lead with 17 to play...most likely more with our bullpen

[AWH the RBP]

Cj, you're being disingenuos; in fact, you're being outright deceitful.

clout never said we couldn't discuss a Kotsay deal.

He merely stated that given the current makeup of the Phillies and the money remaining on Kotsay's contract, that is is highly unlikely the Phillies would deal for him, given the amount of playing time he is likely to get.

I happen to agree with him.

Feel free to discuss the potential deal if you like, but don't willfully misrepresent what someone else posted.

[AWH the RBP]

Steve, stop being rational. Your continued insistence on doing so may get you banned from Metblog.

[MG]

I have a few gripes about MetsBlog but hands down the dumbest thing is the standing according to the number of losses and "LB" instead of "GB." This was marginally entertaining last year when they made the switch but hands down the stupidest thing on the site currently.

[brendan]

I thought the Phillies, an N.L. team had the first chance to grab an N.L. guy who has been placed on waivers, before any A.L. team has a chance to claim him. If thats the case, why are the Sox even in the picture. Did he completely clear waivers, thus allowing the Braves to trade him to any team they want, and if so, why would the Phils not have tried to claim him when he was going through the N.L. (before Jenkins went down?) Any insight would be appreciated.

[slowhand]

Is it me, or is Gary Matthews just flat out hilarious sometimes? He is colorful. Hence a "color" commentator. "Wheels" on the other hand is a nebishy, know it all who never played and I just can't take him seriously. If you take the phrases "turn the lineup over" and "he's looking for something middle in" out of his vocabulary he'd have nothing to say. Plus, Harry hates him.

Basil Beck
Chairman, Gary Mattews for 6 Innings Society

[slowhand]

He's completely cleared. He can go to anyone.

[CJ]

brendan: Yes, Kotsay cleared waivers entirely. No team wanted to risk taking on the $1.5M apparently. I assume anyone trading for him would want some salary relief to be determined by the quality of the prospect traded.

[CJ]

AWH: Are you being funny? I can't tell. If you are, that is really, really funny satire. If you're not... I was exaggerating for effect.

[ilovetrolling]

oh come one AWH...I will admit, some (read: many) of the commenters on metsblog are quite irrational, but it isn't any different than what you will see in the comments section here

and MG, the only thing that really matters is what is in the loss column, am I right? If you are tied or up in the loss column, you control your own destiny

[drew]

@MG: Why is LB stupid? I don't see why... But, then again, I am a Mets fan, so it may take a bit of explaining.

[Bob]

Wheels says the same thing in the same situation every game.

[Brian G]

AWH: Quite ironic to give such a spirited defense of clout against disingenuousness.

[MG]

troll - It is a semantic thing that is annoying.

[ilovetrolling]

fair enough

[CJ]

test

[NEPP]

Trolls are stupid whatever the variety...they add nothing to the discussion.

On Kotsay: I think its a longshot too and it would be out of character for our FO...I'd still love to see it happen...I wonder what mid-level prospect the Braves would want?

[NEPP]

SO instant replay is a reality as of this Thursday. While I think it is long overdue I think it is a huge mistake to ever implement a rule change in mid-season...the final month of the season is an even bigger mistake.

[mvptommyd]

its nights like tonight when a grilling and a beer in the shower should be mandatory.

[NEPP]

MLBTradeRumors has an article about how Mike Lamb was just DFA'ed and how he'd be a great fit for the Phillies...that seems a bit more realistic than Kotsay. Though what we need with another utility infielder who can't hit is beyond me.

[Andy]

(Pre-recorded from the bottom of the seventh tonight in the Phils' dug-out.)

Williams - Chollie, I think we're done for.

Manuel, C - Nope.

Williams - Aren't you worried? We're down four runs and the bats're quieter than a rabbit in a stew pot.

Manuel, C - Nope.

Williams - C'mon, Skip. Really? You can't be that calm about this.

Manuel, C - Wait, Jimy.

Williams - Wait for what? The second coming of So Taguchi? How can you stay so ca...

P.A. Announcement - Now pitching for the New York Mets: Aaaaaaronnn Heeeiiillllmannnn!!!

*Crowd going crazy wild*

*Except for obnoxious Mets fans from South Jersey in the Left Field Bleachers who begin crying into their beer.*

Williams - (Suddenly smiling.) Of course, Skip! Our secret weapon.

(Manuel smiles knowingly.)

[Im a Met Fan]

Metsblog is plain awful although i read it everyday... Most posts have words such as "complete" or "nearly" spelled wrong and broken, incoherent english is commonplace. Cerrone does a good job but the bloggers seem downright stupid.

[Im a Met Fan]

EastFallow -- In response to your post at the top of the page. Pelfreys arm was never in trouble. They just wanted to limit his innings a little more. Manuel is a much better manager of the pitching staff than Torre or Randolph... Far and away better

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread.

The idea isn't that Pelfrey's arm is in trouble, it's that it's common for arm trouble to come from a big hike in innings pitched.

Mets are saying the division crown is worth more than the potential harm to Pelfrey's arm. We'll see.

[BobbyD]

great call not to bunt here. don't give up an out.

[BobbyD]

tag up!

[bensdad00]

where is everybody?