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Thursday, August 21, 2008

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3.64. Amazing.

What is the deal with the top margin?

CJ - to answer your question from the last thread. Umm . . . yes and no.

sophist: "Not that this is dispositive of anything relative but the AL is batting .447 on bunts and the NL .350 this year. Of course, I'd think that's largely supported by the Juan Pierre's of the world. Boston is batting .694 on bunts this year."

The problem with those numbers is that bunting for hits occurs only in certain situations and against certain pitchers. Also, if you add sac bunts to that the total, the number plunges dramatically (and yes I realize sac bunts don't count as ABs.) In other words, few bunts are intended for hits and the BA adds in sac bunts that end up hits as well. The result is a misleading number.

Just noticed the marlins lost to SF today on a walk-off wild pitch? or would that be sprint off?

FLA appears to be fading a bit here... now just 2 games above .500

Moyer hasn't lost to this franchise since the first Bush administration.

Just like everyone in baseball predicted...they simply aren't that good. Of course it doesn't matter as we're now chasing the Mets.

Yeah just when I grudgingly admitted that the Marlins might not be all smoke and mirrors they implode. Happens every time. I've also been saying the Mets are nothing to worry about. I guess it's time to admit they are truly a dynasty in the making.

NEPP: My calendar tells me there are 40 days of baseball left. I wouldn't write anyone off yet.

Clout: Listing the OPS+ of Burrell over the past 5 years doesn't refute the argument that he's a one dimensional underachiever.

(although saying someone in baseball is one dimensional is weak argument)

Its just a feeling is all clout. They could easily make a run and steal the division from both us and the Mets...crazier things have happened.

Still booing Rollins. How terribly consistent.

The Marlins have 6 games left with the Mets and 3 with the Phillies, so they definitely COULD still get back in the race. But at 5 1/2 out, 34 games left, and 2 teams to leap-frog, they're in considerable trouble.

The Marlins have been outscored on the year and that's with some of their hitters overachieving. Teams that do that don't tend to stay above .500.

How the hell is Burrell an underachiever? What because he was a #1 pick?

Continuing the Howard discussion-

In all likelihood, barring a major upswing he will finish with an OPS+ of between 100 and 110.

If he were a free agent and you saw a guy with OPS+ of 167, 144 and 105 over the last season, would anyone really argue to give him a big money 4 or 5 year deal? The HR totals and RBIs will get some poor sucker, but if it's my team that gave him 4 years at 15mil per, I would be PISSED. The trend is to Dave Kingman.

Anything more then a 1 year "lets see" deal would be idiotic.

NEPP: Because his talent level didn't match up to his performance for most of his career (2002 and 2008 being the exceptions).

Or this is just an off year...much like Burrell's 2003. I dont see Howard as done at 28. He could easily post a 150+ OPS+ next year.

clout, I'm not writing any team off yet, but I thought I'd share this little pice copied from b-r.com, not including today's game:

2008 Florida Marlins (

65-62, 3rd place in NL Eastern Division
View League Standings and Leaders
Scored 590 runs, Allowed 616 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 61-66

Sophist: regarding the BA w/ RISP argument, consider this.

Burrell in 08 is hitting .269
Howard in 08 is hitting 300

However if they had equivalent PAs with men on this year, Burrel would have 96 RBI and Howard 104 (more if you gues a sac fly or two). 4 of those extra RBI come from Howard himself via RBI. Soo 100 RBI versus 96 or 97.

Valuable for sure, but it demonstrates that despite an apparent big difference in BA w/ RISP, the output in RBI is not all that different. Its all about who is hitting ahead of you. RBIs don't tell you about the hitter, just the lineup.

PhillR: If I saw a 28 year old whose last 3 seasons were 167/144/105 and could be had for 4 years/15 million per, I'd be pissed if my team DIDN'T sign him.

tom mccarthy is the worst

To Brian G.: I don't buy that argument...his performance didn't meet up with our expectations but that's hardly his fault. He didn't develop as well as the Phillies hoped when they picked him #1 but not everyone does. He's been a very solid above average player for 8 years now.

"Burrell in 08 is hitting .269
Howard in 08 is hitting 300"

Obviously I was refering to with RISP

Cy Redding in the house tonight.

Brian G:

The guy is following a linear decline, and is most recently only slightly better then league average. Considering his position is 1B, its actually below average.

You want to sign him to a long term deal at $15mil a season?

Gonna be a long night -- black holes at each end of the lineup. I'm calling a 3-2 game.

And yes, I know they just got Johnson and Sanchez back, so the RS/RA could be a little misleading.

1-2-3 got the nats in the second.

So Howard's in another one of his mini-funks all of a sudden with 9 straight games with a SO.

In his last 10 games: 6 no-hit games, 4 1 hit games...16 SOs

The first 3-2 pitch to Howard was one that he should have punished. Fouled back to the screen.

If Howard hit the FA market today, some team would give him a 4 or 5-year contract at $12 to $15M per year. I have no doubt about that. And that's sort of the point of why it wouldn't be a bad idea to shop him in the off season. A 29-year old coming off one bad year still has considerable value, because teams will expect a bounceback. A 29-year old coming off two bad years, who has proven a complete inability to hit left-handed pitching, does not have much value.

PhillR: How many players in the league have the ability to put up back to back above 140 OPS seasons? I assure you all of them would get much more than 15mil on the open market.

i'd like to see a breakdown over the season (in particular the last 6 weeks or so) of how many times burrell comes up to leadoff an inning. it seems like pretty much every 2nd inning he is leading off and then once or twice more times a game after

Not after a season at 105. A one year deal at 15mil, fine. You don't go long term, because all signs say the trend is not a fluke.

I really wish Vic had some baseball sense sometimes...dammnit stop swinging at the 1st pitch.

also, mark reynolds is having a far worse year in terms of K's this year than howard. i think he has about 6 or 7 less than RyHo with about 100 less AB's

Glad to see Mr "In play, out(s)" back in the lineup today...I guess

When Pedro Feliz sees as many pitches as the rest of your hitters combined, you know you've just played a bad inning of baseball.

Oh, how I missed those Feliz pop-ups to right-center. Life just seems more complete now.

Please tell me this isn't one of those " take more pitches so we can get the starter out of the game" games. It's Tim Redding for crying out loud.

Jamie is becoming a strikeout machine! And man does he work fast.

Brian G: Since when is OPS+ one dimensional? Unless your definition of "one" means "several."

i think we are going to have to accept that this team is fundamentally flawed at the plate and hope that the pitching will keep them in contention

i love how jamie directs trafiic on popups in front of him

No one would say that the league-leader in HR and RBI had a "bad" season, would they?

You can say what you want about the Gillick / Manuel era. But they play the best players regardless of salary. Bowa / Wade insisted on Bell at 3rd when they could have had an infield of Polanco, Rollins, Utley, Howard? This year Werth has been playing more than Jenkins despite Jenkins' salary. Eaton's 7-million dollars gets sent down to the minors, albeit too late. Myers gets sent down. Bowa always played the highest salary. Always.

The Phillies couldn't hit water if they fell out of a frickin' boat. For the first time in who knows how long, our pitching is doing just fine, and we can't hit. Typical Phils team, if one thing is good, the other is crap.

Love that patented Moyer flare to LF.

Mick O.: Um, yeah they would. And they would be right.

Thome not Howard

This would have been a good night to get Jenkins in there.

In his last 6 games as the starting thirdbaseman against RHP, Dobbs is 7 for 22 (.318) with a double, a HR and 6 RBI.

Which is why Cholly is starting Feliz, whose numbers vs. RHP are .239/.287/.361

"Please tell me this isn't one of those " take more pitches so we can get the starter out of the game" games. It's Tim Redding for crying out loud."

donc, I'm afraid that's what we're dealing with.

JRoll swinging at the first pitch does not help.

Reddings pitch count is low right now, so probably the only way we won't be seeing a lot of him tonight is if they hit him hard.

So is Rollins taking a dive this year or something? 6 of his last 44 including that last AB.

clout: Moyer.

Clout: Are Adam Dunn and Jack Cust not one dimensional? Bc they have better career OPS+ than Burrell.

And I said that a one dimensional argument is stupid and misleading if it's made in a baseball context, as one of the dimensions in baseball (power hitting) is SO much more important than anything else.

It amuses me that in the contrasting of Burrell and Howard its Burrell who was labeled as 1 dimensional.

Burrell hits for a better BA, has a higher OBP, and hits for power. Despite the reputation, he really is not below average in the field.

Howard hits for power. Thats it.

Yeah AWH. I agree. The guy is the epitome of a journeyman but he pitches pretty well against the Phillies. It's just amazing how many of these games we've had lately. Almost all of them.

feliz is the starter and you cant take his job away cause he got hurt. he is healthy and should play. plus im sure jamie and cholly both want him there for defense.

Ryan Zimmerman is having a lousy year but I think he'd look great in pinstripes.

Brian, I wouldn't call Dunn "one" dimensional. He walks a lot in addition to hitting a lot of HRs.

'Two' dimentional, yes, but not 'one'.

Brian- Cust is a DH so he is certainly less dynamic. However he has two dimensions at the plate, lots of power and a high OBP. More then you can say for Howard.

Dunn gets a bad rap. He is also average to slight better in the field. He is quick for his size having once stolen 19 bases in a season. He has a great OBP and incredible power. So definitely nothing remotely close to one dimensional.

Everyone knows we should sweep these fools, and of course because we should, we wont. We're going to let some guy with a 4.64 ERA beat us withouth him even getting run support.

Howard also used to walk alot, once upon a time.

Everyone knows we should sweep these fools, and of course because we should, we wont. We're going to let some guy with a 4.64 ERA beat us withouth him even getting run support.

Yes, he did. However, he doesn't.

Lots of grounders to third today. Thank God we've got Feliz's glove in there, even though he can't hit right-handers & Dobbs has been hitting well.

One of Howard's many failings as a first baseman is that he doesn't take pickoff throws properly - he just goes through the motions and stands in front of the bag. They had Milledge pretty much picked off, and Howard didn't even realize it was a close play.

no offense bay_area, but you don't get to choose your lineups after the game when you have seen if there have been a lot of ground balls to third or not.

feliz may not be the best 3b around, but he is really steady on defense and has a little pop to his bat. plus he is the starting 3b, that's not going to change

donc, does Redding "pitch" well against the Phillies, or do the Phillies "hit" poorly against him.

The one thing I'll give him is he generally throws strikes against the Phils.

I've never seen him pitch against a team that mashes him like the Brewers or Cards, but I wonder if those teams take a different approach.

RSB: I've noticed that about Howard too. Most of the time he doesn't even stand in the right position to make a tag in the event of a pick-off throw. Of course, who's more at fault for that -- Howard or the coaching staff? I vote the coaching staff.

Ugh..Cy Redding is pitching lol

Without the phillies this guy's ERA would probably be like 7.00!

Rollins: Damn, These Philly fans are really critical.

Fans: Hell no! You jerk! We will cheer results. We're just like fans of other teams!

Howard (quietly): I'm leading the league in HR and RBI.

Fans: Uhh, yeah. I guess. But, not in the exact way we'd like! So... BOOO! You suck!

Jamie Moyer for Cy Young.

howard had his eyes closed again

Hmmm, 2 Ks against a RHP. Does Howard need a day off?

gp: I wrote a post earlier in the year, in which I went through a bunch of Jamie Moyer's box scores, and found that there were never more than 2 or 3 balls hit to third base during the entire time that he was in the game. Had Cholly done the same thing, he would have known BEFORE the game started that, just because Moyer pitches to contact does not mean that he yields an unusually high number of balls to third base. In fact, most balls hit to the third base side off of Moyer are foul balls. Most balls in play go to the right side of the infield or the SS.

So um thats his second SO of the night.

We should trade for Redding simply so we don't have to face him anymore...He's like Robby Tallas out there (if any of you are Flyers fan you'll get that reference)

Well one thing is for certain, Howard is going to break a record he already owns.

Mick O, please show me where one poster here tonight said Ryan Howard "sucked"?

I can't find one.

If you want to disagree with someone's argment or opinion, theis is BeerLeaguer - feel free to.

But you will get nwhere by distorting other posters arguments.

Pretty weak 'dialogue' on these threads lately. Only Andy does that well.

mick o: So, if Howard has 33 good swings all year, it cancels out 446 ABs of pure crap?

Through 4 innings and it's only 8 o'clock. A Jim Kaat special.

Is that Handle really necessary? Try to have a little class.

Howard's going to own that record just like Ted Williams does his.

NEPP, it must be a troll.

Brian G: OPS measures on base and slugging, which adds up to at least two dimensions. And since some of the OB is hits, that's three dimensions by my count. So I would say that someone with a superior OPS+ as Burrell's is, by definition is NOT one-dimensional. In other words, you're wrong. Yet again!

I hope, at season's end, that Howard is embarrased at what will surely be his complete destruction of the strikeout record. I hope he thinks long and hard about what it will take to cut his Ks back to merely terrible, rather than record-setting, levels.

gp: If you get a spare minute look up Feliz's numbers vs. RHP. Thanks.

I swear some of Redding's pitches appear to be going right through the Phillies bats. Optical Illusion? I think not. There are sinister forces at work here I tell you.

He's already made it clear that it doesn't matter to him - it's just part of his game. It's just one of those things you better get used to.

donc: Deal with the devil?

also, burrell is second in the league in outfield assists and has only made 2 errors (both within the last couple weeks)

he may not be the most fleet of foot out in the field, but at least he doesn't play outside of himself and makes almost every play that he is expected to

So this is what it's like to be a Padres fan.

Redding is 4-3, 3.33 vs. the Phillies lifetime, so it's not like he's Roger Clemens.

ydna

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