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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

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Jayson Werth's OPS vs. RHP is now .759. Interestingly, his OBP is nearly identical vs righties and lefties, but his slugging is 200 points lower against righties. That said, Werth's slugging vs. RHP is just 4 points lower than Jenkins and his OBP is 40 points higher.

It's kinda hard to justify Jenkins spot in the lineup these days.

CJ: Agreed. This is the second year in a row where Werth has had a higher OBP against righties than Jenkins. For an inept lineup that hits a lot of home runs, it helps to have a guy who works counts and gets on base.

Breaking slot was my choice for an afternoon post and Manuel's comments on Carlos Ruiz were a close second.

"His swing gets long at times, and it's slow," Manuel said of Ruiz. "Last year, it seemed like he had a quicker bat and he hit more balls hard. But if everyone was hitting, we wouldn't be talking about Ruiz."

As official spokesperson of the Chooch fan club, I don't sense any belief coming from management that Ruiz will improve, and I can't blame them.

It took til mid August for Cholly to "have trouble justifying Ruiz's spot in the lineup"??? I guess you can only hit .210 for a few months, before it becomes an issue.

I actually was kinda impressed with Walrond's stuff. He was an actual "swing and miss" pitcher, on a staff that doesn't have many of those. He was a bit wild ad times, but he wasn't terrible. Hopefully, he signs back up with the Phils ala Condrey last year, each time he was "DFA'd".

Boy, that Jenkins signing, looks like the Adam Eaton signing of 2008. A ton of money, for very little. And, more money owed too.

Gillick should stick to the "Dobbs, Werth, Feliz, Durbin, Romero-type" signings in the future. The "Garcia's and Eaton's and Jenkins's FA signings/trades" (veterans getting a ton of money) have not gone well.

denny b: The Feliz signing has gone well?

CJ: When we have Eric Bruntlett as an alternative, yes. That was Gillick's evil plan in acquiring Bruntlett; he knew when Feliz went down, we'd all realize how much we miss him and how "awesome" he is.

The justification for Jenkins over Werth are his career numbers against RHP and his higher BA against them this year. Clout put the question nicely. What's more likely: a veteran guy who batted .292/.365/.504 against RHP from 2005-07 returns to form or a young guy who batted .243/.350/.389 against RHP from 2005-07 learns how to hit them?

Jenkins is batting .260/.351/.420 since the AS break which is . . . better.

king myno: Riiiight... that's about the best argument possible in convincing anyone that this was a good signing. Simply living up to expectations isn't enough in my mind... if those expectations are so low the bar is on the ground.

Sophist: True... except that Werth is .243/.349/.514 since the break which, when compared to Jenkins, is... better.

CJ - are those Werth's numbers against RHP since the break or his overall numbers?

Werth is batting .255/.379/.532 against RHP since the AS break. That's excellent for him, though that is a small sample -- just 47 AB.

Overall... I can't find a way to break it down more. Although he's played more against righties recently.

Is it just me, or could Howard have stretched a little more for that throw from Dobbs?

Why do they keep running on our outfielders?

pat the arm

Someone mentioned the Sabathia trade as a possible impetus for ownership realizing the importance of farm system depth. I would say a more likely impetus was them realizing that they're paying Jenkins/Eaton/Feliz, three below average players, over $20 million next year, and that if they had a few more Kyle Kendricks or Jason Donalds to plug in their places, they'd be saving themselves a ton of money.

CJ - Werth's overall numbers are relatively meaningless since he does most of his damage against LHP. Both of these players have severe splits in their careers. The question is who will be more successful against RHP from now til the season ends. Werth's overall numbers aren't responsive to that question.

How can division rivals continue to run on Burrell? It still amazes me that they underestimate his arm and accuracy?

jimmy still swinging for the fences. sigh.

The other advantage Werth offers is allowing us to bat Victornio lower in the order, bringing much better balance, IMO.

Rollins' HR/FB has really plummeted this year relative to 06 and 07 (almost half.)

That's true, CJ, and not something I'd considered. Good thing Werth maintains his high OBP against even RHP.

I love Harry, but he can't see.

Sophist: I understand your point. Are you suggesting we're better off letting Jenkins try to work his way out of his funk? I guess at this point I'm in favor of making Werth the every day right fielder with Jenkins getting spot starts against righties.

Are you kidding me Pat

Please tell me this isn't going to be one of those 4 error games...

CJ - I don't have a strong opinion about it.

Last thing Myers needs is a bunch of bad play behind him.

Myers getting lots of GB early.

Thank you, pitcher.

Now all Myers needs is for his defense to wake up. We know how he loses his mind when they screw up behind him.

Sophist: Fair enough. I wouldn't call mine strong either. It's more of a undefinable subjective feeling that I'm more confident with Werth at the plate than Jenkins at the plate, regardless of who's pitching. And I'm the kind of guy who hates that kind of rationalizing!!

CJ: I would agree. Werth should play like 5 out of 7 or so. With this lineup I'll take the consistent OBP over the power. We need baserunners, especially out of the 2 hole.

Yeah, CJ. That's usually why I bother to post his splits. My memory, anyway, isn't so strong when it comes to recalling who his hits ahve come against. He's not awful against RHP anyway.

Why do they swing for the fences every single at bat?

Looks like the Phils are playing with their usual fire. Two errors already. Go get 'em, boys!

Rollins hit a deep FB. Werth SO swinging. Utley hit a deep FB. Howard and Burrell hit deep FB.

Someone want to try for a line drive or something?

Nice, the whole team has warning track power.

The punchless gNats already have 3 hits and the Phils have none. WTF?

Mets up 5-0 on the braves in the 1st inning. Still 2-on, 2-out.

The Nats seem to think it is OK to look at a couple of pitches before swinging at one. Wierd.

Mutts have already scored more runs than we are likely to score all night.

5-0 Mets after 1 inning. WTF. What is with that team raking in the 1st inning every game. Jurjens pitchout is already high..may be a blowout at Shea tonight. Gotta beat the nats boys.

Nice hook by Myers.

Curt: It's looking like more runs than we'll have HITS all night.

Both teams are playing bottom-dwellers. Can't really expect to make up ground today or tomorrow.

Curt: yea because they need to give their bullpen at least a 10 run lead so they won't blow the game for them.

The former black hole goes to work.

Mets are looking really good right now. Let's just hope they implode in September again. The way we're playing now, we're gonna need that.

Are the fans blowing kisses to Jimmy yet?

Pure luck gets us a run there. Thank you, Rookie SS.

jimmy got lucky, real lucky

Jack - you expect the Phils to be down by 7 games again? Both teams have real tests ahead against the Central and West. I'd like to see how the Mets handle the Brewers and Cubs before I evaluate how good they look. They had a nice string of wins against bad teams a month ago as well.

Ballsy Coste, ballsy.

Can't entirely attribute that to luck. Jimmy's speed forces a quick, imperfect throw.

Myers did more to break up that double play then jimmy has done all month on the basepaths.

ouch! thats one run, take them if ya get them

The new black hole snuffs that inning.

I say this every time we play the Nats, but I really think Ryan Zimmerman is the best defensive 3rd baseman in the game, and one of the best I've ever watched. He's not nearly as good offensively as I thought he would be, but he's still young. If he develops into a .290 hitter with 25-30 hr power, he's a very valuable player.

Bad bunt by Myers, too. Have to make the 3rd baseman field it.

It's funny. There are people on here, in this endless debate about the harm of Howard's SO, who talk about how you just need to put the ball in play sometimes -- especially with men on -- to force a play. This is only more true when the batter has speed like Rollins and Vic do.

If Rollins makes that play last year he receives a bit more praise. He got the ball in play and used his speed to help make an error. I don't think he's due much, but that play wasn't pure luck.

What are we complaining about? The Phillies offense is so efficient they score runs without even getting any hits.

Matthews thinks that Hernandez threw the ball away because he was trying to avoid throwing it into Myers, but it just looked to me like he threw it away, period...I don't think Myers had much to do with it.

Myers has been a different pitcher since returning from the minors. When he was first demoted, I was skeptical. The Phils knew what they were doing. Good move. He's sharp.

What are you guys talking about? Rollins' speed had minimal impact on that play. Myers didn't slide into second he barely ducked his head so the young SS had to throw it over and around myers, that's why he threw the ball high. Even if it was burrell same play would have occured most likely.

Curt normally I'd agree with you to bank on a Mets september collapse but the chances are slim of a repeat. Their pen is still shaky, but their starting rotation has been pretty much perfect lately. I'm curious to see how they do vs Cubbies and Brewers, as their offenses are much better...but then again, ever since the Mutts brought up their young kids...they've been hitting, and Church comes back this weekend. So I guess wel see. In the meantime, Phils need to keep taking care of business.

I can't imagine how that ML tour helped, but somehow it did.

When was the last time Utley took one the other way like that?!

b-rad - wrong guy.

Good job yet again, Howard...let two perfectly hittable pitches go right by, then swing at the pitch at your shoetops.

Sophist: You're right in that his speed probably did force the throw. I think I'm just mad that he swung at the first pitch after the guy was showing definite control problems by walking and hitting our 7 & 8 hitters.

Go team!!

Yay whoooo, go howard its ok get him next time. It is only 166 strike outs.it is campaign cheertime

Ah, the new black hole.
While Colin Balester is the latest unknown to show us his Cy Young imitation.

doubleh: the count on Rollins was 0-2 when he hit the ground ball - not the first pitch.

JW - Yeah, I have to give the Phils and Myers lots of credit so far. I thought it was pretty much a lost year for Myers. I was just hoping he would even be adequate as a starter for the rest of year. Instead, he has been the best Phils' starter since the All-Star Break (yet still only 2-1 since he is back because of crappy run support).

RSB: No, he skied the first pitch back foul, so he did swing at the first pitch. That was why I was angry at him.

Nice throw, Howard.

B-rad -- Do you also think the Phils will be down 7 with 17 to play? The Phils won't exactly need a collapse as long as they keep pace. I don't expect the Mets to keep winning at this pace once they start playing the Central.

Anyone left without an error?

HH - okay, I got you. sorry.

Maybe Howard isn't worse defensively this year. It just seems to stand out more because his offensive numbers have taken a hit and you can argue that he has not improved a single part of his game since the 2006 season.

Well we've got our #2 starter. If we only had a #1- #4 hitter, we'd be in business.

Nice job by Myers

Will say this about Howard - he has the look of a future in DH. I can't imagine him in the field everyday past 30.

3 errors and one hit thru four and a half may somehow add up to a 1-0 Phillies lead against the Nats. Not sure that's how it will work against the Dodgers, Mets, and Cubs.

In Howard's defense, that was a tough play with a fast runner coming down the line.

"I say this every time we play the Nats, but I really think Ryan Zimmerman is the best defensive 3rd baseman in the game, and one of the best I've ever watched."


Jack, I don't know if I completely agree with the above, but he a damn, damn good third baseman. What impresses me the most is he makes really tough plays look smooth and easy.

Let me make a caveat to my last statement - in 3 years I can't imagine that Howard isn't a DH in the AL somewhere.

MG: I'd say he looks like a DH right now.

Well, tough for Howard anyway. Maybe not tough for Tex or Derek Lee.

The former black hole swings into action again.

Can anyone tell what's in or out of the park tonight?

It's gonna stay in the park...NO, it's out!

T-Mac with the Reverse Kalas on that HR call.

Blood in the water guys.. come on..

Dobbs has been the Man!!!

Jack jinxed Zimmerman...

That call by McCarthy was like the anti-Kalas: "But it's going to stay in the park..."

Love the rip-off of the Won't Get Fooled Again clip from Arizona. If there is something to be ripped off, the Phillies will be sure to rip it off.

didnt zimmerman have an error last time we played them?

They've hit some balls hard tonight off this kid Balester.

Now finally "Roy" Dobbs gets one to go.

I'm telling you.. this is the lineup that should be out there for the rest of the year. It's the best lineup on paper. The rest is up to the players. Victorino - Dobbs-Coste. A little better than Jenkins-Bruntlett-Ruiz. Feliz and Dobbs will probably have to platoon but that's ok

hh, in fairness to Zim, Coste smoked that ball so hard he barely got his glove on it.

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