Wednesday: Myers returning, spotlight on Lidge

Brett Myers will make a minor league start for Class-A Clearwater Friday, then join the team in Miami in pitch July 23 in New York, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. We also discuss closer Brad Lidge.

Back to business. Last night, I exercised my right to miss the entire All-Star game. I didn't catch a second of it, not even the highlights. Reason being: No good can come from watching it. The National League would likely lose. It could go extra innings. Brad Lidge could be needlessly taxed, which would only stress me out. Blam-o. For a job well done this season, Lidge was rewarded with a four hour, 50 minute marathon in which he warmed up six separate times and took the loss in the 15th.

Before we get to Myers, let’s stay on Lidge for a moment. Did everyone see yesterday’s article on how Lidge was tipping his pitches last season? Excellent article, on many fronts. Although I’m skeptical his worst moments in Houston can be blamed on tipping pitches, David Murphy, who wrote the piece, gets to the heart of it with this well-placed line: “You are never quite as bad as people say you are. And, at the same time, you are never quite as good.”

Let it serve warning. He’s been on top. He's also hit rock bottom. That's what a reliever does. Only the elite are immune. Although he’s still perfect in save opportunities, his command is beginning to fail him a little. Only a fool would expect perfection.

As for tipping, the story goes that when he held his glove high at the start of his delivery, he was throwing a fastball. When he kept the glove low, a slider was on the way. Tipping pitches is one of at least three theories surrounding his prior woes, the others are an ineffective cut fastball he would eventually scrap at the request of catcher Brad Ausmus, plus, the always popular "change of scenery."

Reading some of the comments on Baseball Musings, a great, all-purpose site, they bring up the idea that "tipping pitches" is a trick to give struggling pitchers a flaw to focus on rather than overthink their mechanics. They cite Jim Palmer as the source. Plus, isn’t it a little fishy that a catcher as experienced as Ausmus wouldn’t have picked up on this?

Something to ponder as we look ahead to the second half, which will reportedly include Myers. Say what you want about Myers, but he's been a pretty decent second-half pitcher, as in, an effective pitcher in big games, as both a starter and closer. It sounds like the Phils are convinced the demotion was the only way Myers could get back on track. I'm optimistic they will be proven right. The bottom line is they need his arm for the stretch run, especially now that Adam Eaton has gone off the rails. Eaton's not cut out for the stretch run. He spent the 2007 pennant race on the phony DL. It's a perfect opportunity to turn J.A. Happ loose and demote Eaton to the bullpen. Time to find out if Eaton can work some mop-up innings; maybe it will light a spark. Between Myers ability, Happ's status and Eaton pitching in some capacity, they have flexibility.

Comments

[CJ]

I'm not going to go back and re-read the All-Star thread... but part of me was rooting for Brad Lidge to give up a run. Frankly, I was worried about Scott Kazmir. This is a guy with arm trouble in his past, pitching just two days after going over 100 pitches, pitching on a team fighting for a playoff spot, against the team who's manager was putting him on the mound.

Can you imagine what would have happened had Kazmir gone back out there and injured himself? That four pitch walk he gave up was brutal to watch.

I suppose I shouldn't care much about other team's players... but it would have been a big blow to the game had this ended badly.

Besides, if Lidge is going to have a bad appearance, let it be in a game that doesn't matter to us!

[doubleh]

I have more confidence in Myers than in Eaton. Myers, when he's "on" (like in the Cinci game), has dominant stuff. Eaton, when "on," will never dominate a lineup. He doesn't even have mastery over the Mets anymore. He no longer serves any purpose on this roster.

[J. Weitzel]

It's time to see if Happ can cut it, too, for the long-term. Eaton isn't the future, and Moyer's contract is up.

[CJ]

doubleh: Yeah, that's an easy one. Myers > Eaton. Hopefully this time down has given Myers more confidence in his fastball and helped him locate his pitches better.

Either way, we had to bring him up for a couple starts to see what we've got. If he bombs out, at least we'll know before the trade deadline!

[Sophist]

Check out the peaks and valleys to the game at fangraphs.com:

http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280715131

Wild. Lidge (-.357) subtracted the most WPA of any pitcher with Wagner (-.298) second. Volquez, who gave up the tying two run shot, was third.

Uggla had the most of any hitter, and any other player for that matter. -.634. By a long shot.

If you want to get a sense of how badly the reserves performed and how much rode on their bats, check out the bottom batters in WPA on the NL team: Uggla, Guzman, Hart, Braun, Ludwick, Gonzalez.

Drew had by far the highest WPA of any position player on the AL: .583. Sherril would have been a good choice for MVP: 2.1 IP and only 1 hit allowed and 0 BB. .460 WPA.

Notice that Uggla subtracted well more value than Drew added, though.

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"Who's worse: Byrd, Wolf or Blanton?"

Wolf is the worst by far.

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I'm optimistic about Myers as well.

[CubeHostage]

i'm curious this morning about this Matt Holliday rumor. supposedly, the Phils have kicked the tires on Holliday in a let's-just-slug-'em-to-death approach to the post-season. and i can't say i'm disappointed in this alternative approach. the pitching options are studded with red flags (injury history, troubling contracts, ethical questions, plain old mediocrity) so this alternative approach is intriguing. Holliday would provide power AND AVERAGE from the right side, and would be a sufficient replacement for Burrell should he leave after this season, which now seems likely.
so what would the Phils have to give up to get Holliday? would Golson, Donald/Cardenas, Werth do it?

[doubleh]

Cube: I'd have to think the Rockies would want a King's Ransome for Holliday. If they wanted Carrasco and Marson just for Fuentes, I shudder to think of how much they'd want for Holliday (although his numbers are much better at Coors than on the road).

[CJ]

Cube: No... Golson, Donald/Cardenas would not do it. The Rockies want a major package for Holiday and I'm pretty sure I read they want a ML-ready arm (that would likely be Carrasco since I doubt they want Happ) in addition to other prospects.

[CubeHostage]

granted, i don't have a strong handle on prospect valuation, but i have to think the demand for two top prospects for Fuentes is just posturing by the Rockies. a left-handed reliever is arguably the most coveted asset right now, so why wouldn't they ask for the moon? as i learned fundraising, you'll never get what you don't ask for. with that said, Sabathia cost one major prospect and some filler, same for Harden. Fuentes is not a comparable talent. which leads me back to my original point, i think the Rockies are just posturing to get the best deal possible on Fuentes. but still, Holliday will cost a lot. what does that package look like from the Phillies?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

The Rockies will not get two top prospects for Fuentes. Of course they are posturing.

[Jack]

CJ: Agreed, I had no problem at all with Lidge giving up a run. it's an exhibition game, at 1:30 AM, in a half-empty stadium. Get the game over with. If Kazmir had gotten hurt, it would have been an absolute disgrace. As I said last night, I'm now thrilled that Hamels didn't make the team.

[CJ]

From Buster Olney (hope I'm not repeating from last thread):

"The Phillies are casting a wide net in their search for pitching (although A.J. Burnett is not among those they're considering at this time), checking in on the availability of Joe Blanton of the Athletics and others. But the perception of the Phillies, through the eyes of rival executives, is that they're not especially motivated right now to make a deal. Perhaps they want to wait to see what Brett Myers has to offer in his return to the big leagues -- and according to Jim Salisbury, he could be back next week."

[bay_area_phan]

I've said before that, given the available options, I'm not so sure we wouldn't be better off targeting a big bat. Holliday would certainly qualify. Of course, the team that acquires him should realize that he isn't going to be a .335 hitter with 35 homeruns away from Coors. At any other park, he'll be closer to a .300 hitter with 25 homerun power. That would still help the Phillies immensely, even if he's something of a butcher in the OF.

[CubeHostage]

well what do you know. in my slow day of work today, i just checked out si.com and found a feature from Heyman on Holliday. here is what he said about what O'Dowd is looking for:
"While the likelihood appears to be that Holliday stays put for now, O'Dowd is said to be open-minded about his interests; a canvass of competing GMs indicates that he has sought a variety of packages in return, from big leaguers to prospects to a mixture of the two, depending on what works for each potential trading partner."

[Bill]

the Holliday story is intriguing but good pitching always beats good hitting and although he may get us the division, the Phillies would not have the pitching to go anywhere in the playoffs.

http://myteamrivals.typepad.com/phightin_phils_phorum

[NEPhilliesPhan]

If Gordon wasnt hurt would Eaton even have a place in the bullpen? I wouldn't put him ahead of Condrey on a depth chart.

Other thoughts: At least Wagner blew the save which means the Mets fans can't come here and bash Lidge. And Uggla pretty much lost the AS game for the NL with his 3 Errors.

[brio]

Happ give the Phils a better chance to win than Eaton. It's that simple.

[Sophist]

Uggla also left 6 men on base.

BAP - I agree that most teams have to realize Holliday puts up lesser numbers on the road. I am sure they know this. I don't think we'll get Holliday, but the other thing to realize is that CBP is pretty friendly to RH slugging bats. Holliday would see a decrease in his doubles at CBP, but I think he'd put up huge HR numbers with the short porch in left field.

[Jon]

If Phils prospects can't land pitching, I doubt they could land Holliday. I'm all up for trying though, especially if it's between he and Joe Blanton or Paul Byrd.

[CubeHostage]

Holliday is NOT a good fielder, true, he nearly cost the Rockies that tie-breaker game with his defense before he won it for them without touching the plate... but i digress... but Vic's defense is so good in center, i'm confident we can cheat on defense at the corners. what interests me most about Holliday is not his power, but his average. he's still hitting .301 away from coors this year. his consistency would be a fine addition to a middle of the lineup that is much too streaky through the first half.
how about this offer? Werth (replaces MH), Golson (future CF, freeing them to trade Taveras), Cardenas (to fill the 2B void), and a pitcher of the Carpenter/Bastardo ilk?

[J. Weitzel]

Sounds like Brett Myers will become both their biggest offeseason acquisition and biggest trade deadline acquisition.

[Jon]

Agreed on Happ. He could be a viable alternative to the aging Jamie Moyer next year, as well as a very nice replacement to Adam Eaton this year. Given the success he has seen so far, it's time to find out. Also, I'd rather cut ties with Eaton than to banish him to the pen. He has repulsed me that much!

[Sophist]

Holliday

Career at Coors: .364/.427/.659 -- 78 HR, 96 2B
Dolphin Stadium: .297/.409/.486 -- 0 HR, 5 2B
Dodger Stadium: .234/.299/.363 -- 13 HR, 5 2B
Shea: .281/.349/.351 -- 1 HR, 1 2B
CBP: .283/.356/.547 -- 4 HR, 2 2B

Next to Busch Stadium (?) CBP is where Holliday has the highest SLG outside of Coors (in places where he has a significant number of AB.)

[CJ]

If the Phils take Carrasco, Marson and even Golson off the table (as has been suggested), there's no way they get Holliday and it's not likely they would get either Bedard or Burnett.

[Sophist]

"Sounds like Brett Myers will become both their biggest offeseason acquisition and biggest trade deadline acquisition."

Love this comment. Just imagine if Myers came back strong *and* the FO made a move for another starter.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

I think Moyer will be back next season if he finishes with an ERA under 5. His stuff has aged well over the past few years.

On a Holliday trade: Werth, Golson, Cardenas and Carrasco would likely get it done but that's a steep price for a guy that will be gone in a year and a half (His contract is up after 2009 I believe and he definitely wants to test the market). I don't think the Rockies would want either Carpenter or Bastardo though considering that Carpenter failed miserably this year and Bastardo is an extreme flyball pitcher who also is currently hurt.

[Spitz]

How has Myers looked in his three minor league starts?

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Like he's taking advantage of lower quality hitting.

[J. Weitzel]

The Rockies believe they can compete, if not this year, but next when everyone is back healthy. To think they would go for a prospect package + Werth is a real stretch.

[CJ]

Sophist: "Just imagine if Myers came back strong *and* the FO made a move for another starter."

Yeah, that's exactly what I was talking about yesterday. A strong return from Myers and the acquisition of Burnett or Bedard... that'd be nice. But if Myers looks really good the next few starts, that will probably make the team less likely to deal for a starter. Happ or Carrasco would be the guy to replace Eaton when he blows up officially.

[Joe]

Why is Cole Hamels not opening the series in Florida friday night? It is his day to go (since he started on Sunday), and it would mean that he would get to pitch against the Mets next week.

WTF...seems like a logical thing to do...or at least pitch him Saturday in Miami and Thursday against the Mets. Now he will miss the Mets two (crucial) series in a row.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

****The Rockies believe they can compete, if not this year, but next when everyone is back healthy. To think they would go for a prospect package + Werth is a real stretch.****

Good point...I wouldn't do that deal either.

[Joe]

Why is Cole Hamels not opening the series in Florida friday night? It is his day to go (since he started on Sunday), and it would mean that he would get to pitch against the Mets next week.

WTF...seems like a logical thing to do...or at least pitch him Saturday in Miami and Thursday against the Mets. Now he will miss the Mets two (crucial) series in a row.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

For one, I don't think Golson's really "off the table". I have a hunch they are throwing his name out there as if he's "untouchable" to drive up his value, if that's humanly possible.

Burnett-b/c of his contract, the Phils don't want to include Carrasco/Marson and I can understand why.

Bedard-he'd have to pitch a game or 2 before the deadline before a deal is made. I'd have to think they'd consider one of their "top prospects".

Holliday-I'd assume they'd include Golson, b/c he's an OFer and maybe Werth + others, obviously. If they don't get a pitcher who costs big $$, they could even try to bag PtB for next season and go "all in" with that lineup.

[Willard Preacher]

Maybe Brett Myers is tipping his pitches.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

I've been wondering the same thing about why Hamels is not being put on top of the rotation for the second half. Seems Cholly is giving him a little extra time off. I'd prefer to see him against hte Mets next week and, also, if we can squeeze one more start out of his season, do it.

[CJ]

Joe: They reshuffled their starting rotation to give Cole extra rest. I assume they're looking at long term gain vs. short term gain. Cole has been heavily used in the first half.

[J. Weitzel]

Holliday's looking for a long-term deal. That's the new thing; these trades happen with the caveat being the new team works out an extension. Does anyone think the Phils are ready to pony up $20 million a season for him?

I'd do it though. There's no way the Rockies would settle for Werth and prospects. They'd need ready pitching.

[CubeHostage]

BedBeard- i agree completely about Golson. i think he'll go in a deal at the deadline, but i'd be surprised to see either Marson or Carrasco go considering what's left.

[Joe]

Cole gets an extra day of rest by starting Saturday instead of Friday, and he would still be able to pitch in the Mets series (Thursday).

Just doesn't make sense not to have him pitch in the Mets series (again). That is a huge series - we need to take 2 of 3.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

I'd trade Golson in a second.

[MG]

Ugh. More and more it sounds like the Phils are going to spin this crap about Myers returning as a huge upgrade to the starting rotation. Same goes for the inevitable return of Gordon to the pen.

Get so tired of the middling approach this team takes that includes leaving a bum like Eaton in the rotation almost solely due to the fact that the Phils owe him over $10M yet.

[MG]

I am going on record today that for the 3rd year in a row, the Phils will do almost nothing at the trade deadline except acquiring 1 or 2 second-tier players like a part-time OF, situational lefty for the pen, or a back-end rotation guy.

[CubeHostage]

Jason- how close are Golson and Cardenas to being MLB ready? if the Rox are looking to trade Holliday now, they're punting on '08. so would the prospects in that deal be MLB ready by 2009? maybe we could sneak past them without offering pitching... the Rox seem like an oddball team to me in that they have a strong, young pitching core (see: post-season success, 2007) who have either spent considerable time this year on the DL or in a sophomore slump. if they're in it to win it next year, they'll be counting on those pitchers, not ours. it's the Rox's big name poisitional players that are getting too expensive that they have to replace. how far off am i on this one?

[MG]

If the Phils can trade Golson for any help for the big league club, I would do it. Hell, if they can even get a live arm that might help them in the bullpen next year I would do that too. Still think the Phils aren't going to resign Burrell this year though and try to push the BS notion that Golson will be a key piece of the OF next year with diasasterous results.

[clout]

MG: That's a very safe bet.

[MG]

My prediction on Myers:

Better numbers than the first half (not really that difficult considering he was one of the worst starters in MLB) but still pretty mixed with a .500 record and an ERA around 4.75.

An upgrade from the first half - yeah but no difference maker either.

[doubleh]

NL East is up for grabs and this stupid FO will just sit by and watch someone else take it. Here's a tip: 2007 is not going to repeat itself. We cannot rely on other teams falling apart, we have to make ours better.

Simply infuriating. I wonder if Gillick is really this bad (Stand Pat) or to what extend his hands are tied by the Phils M.O.

[MG]

Clout - If they do, then Gillick and Co. should be ripped considerably because once again over teams went out and made the necessary upgrades while this team sat on its hands again.

One thing I hope is that the stupid utilization of Lidge last night by Hurdle (one of the worst managers in the NL if not the worst) leads to an injury. Besides Hamels, Lidge is arguably the player the Phils could least afford right now to go on the DL.

[clout]

Cube: Golson is unlikely to ever be a significant major league player. Think Reggie Taylor.

Cardenas is a high-quality Class A prospect who projects as a major leaguer someday (although not as a middle infielder), but at age 20 is at least 3 years away. But he is an excellent baseball player, unlike Golson, who is an excellent athlete.