The previous GM departed with a legacy of missed opportunities at the non-waiver trade deadline, which occurs today at 4 p.m. Will the current boss suffer the same fate?
Isn’t if funny how history repeats itself? Presenting the Florida Marlins, world champions in 1997 and 2003, serious contenders again in 2008, locked in discussions with the Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates on a three-way megadeal to import Manny Ramirez for the stretch run. A game-and-a-half separate the Phillies, Mets and Marlins in the National League East. It’s very likely that such a deal would shift the balance of power to the Marlins, who will be getting 24-year-old right-hander Anibal Sanchez back on the mound tonight, joining a rotation that is healthy, young and on the rise. Sounds like the '03 Marlins all over again.
While Florida is thinking big, in Philadelphia, the Phillies are talking small. “Everybody wants a No. 1 pitcher,” Gillick told the Inquirer. “Everybody wants a No. 1 hitter. But sometimes you can't get them. Sometimes you can't take a giant step. Sometimes you have to take a small step.”
Beerleaguer: And sometimes you have to take the big step, like the Marlins are trying to do. If the Manny deal goes down, and the Marlins win it in a nose, it will define the Philadelphia legacy for Gillick, who is set to retire after the season. It would also be a crying shame. This could be the Phillies' last, best chance at post-season baseball. Florida's pitching staff will only get better, and the Mets will open the wallets to coincide with the opening of Citi Field.
“Big” doesn’t always mean “right,” but the Marlins have the historical edge in making smart, small deals, too, like the 2003 acquisition of closer Ugueth Urbina, followed ten days later by a Phillies’ trade for Mike Williams. The trade helped Florida snare the Wild Card and eventual world title, while the Phillies watched from home.




What is so sad, is that after 40 years of conditioning, I expect nothing.
Posted by: BB | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:11 AM
I'm frustrated to. But after reading every rumor out there for 2 weeks, I don't know who the Phillies are supposed to get. When terrible teams like Houston and Colorado are in buyers mode, it makes it pretty hard.
Posted by: BobbyD | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:15 AM
I just really feel like the only thing that happens today is picking up Arthur Rhodes, if that. The city of Philadelphia will be very bitter come 4:00.
Posted by: GreggyD | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:16 AM
It's amazing how low all of our expectations are. Not a single person here expects the Phillies to actually make an impact move. And they won't. It's pathetic, really. This organization is run completely half-assed from the top down, and I bet other teams look at us as a joke. It's a shame that our players and managers, good baseball people trying their best, are continually let down by this sham of a front office.
Posted by: Jack | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Question: If the Marlins do get Manny, how many new fans will show up to stadium? I hope he likes playing for crickets and palmetto bugs.
Posted by: doubleh | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:19 AM
With Gordon now appearing that it may be September 1 being his return date, and Madson looking tired, the bullpen looks awfully thin right now.
A Jeremy Affeldt or a Jack Taschner will likely be added this afternoon. They will be useful, but it won't be sexy.
The bench is also pretty thin right now, especially when Dobbs starts at 3B. A good hitter is also needed (preferrably a right-handed bat) for the bench.
No one expects Gillick to make any big moves today. So my hopes aren't that high. I expect some kind of minor move and maybe another in August. Other than that, Blanton was the major move for this team.
Cholly will have to do it, with the group he's got. Myers will have to pitch well. Blanton will have to show something. Happ is there, just in case. Gordon will have to come back healthy. The key guys will have to stay healthy.
Will it be enough? I don't know.
Posted by: denny b. | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:20 AM
Tour de Philly Part Deux of Arthur Rhodes would make me angry.
I remember that Mike Williams deal. I was at Veteran's Stadium when the deal went down. The Phils tried to sell him as a big time acquisition because he was the lone All-Star representative for the Pirates that season, too bad he was one of the worst All-Star selections of all-time.
I'm already mad about this trade deadline and nothing has happened for sure yet. Manny the Marlin may never happen, and Gillick may shock us with a good trade, but I'm pessimistic nonetheless.
Posted by: GM-Carson | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:21 AM
****NEPP: How in the world would Bay for Vic hurt us offensively? Do you have any evidence for that argument whatsoever?****
Vic had much greater speed and we already have a bunch of high strikeout slower hitters...why get another at the cost of one of our few game changing run manufacturing SB threat guys? Especially as it would hurt us defensively as well. Vic is far superior to Werth in CF and Bay is a LF not a RF...that would also hurt us. Its not all about OPS when building a lineup...you need guys like Vic just as much as a slugger.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:22 AM
You're forgetting, the Phils already made their big trade--it was Blanton.
Posted by: timr | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Here's a deal that would, it seems, only cost money: Randy Winn. He has a .351 OBP vs. LHP (with a low BABIP) and a .399 OBP vs. LHP last year. This year he's hitting .296/.363/.413 away from SF.
Winn would replace Jenkins vs LHP, and take Taguchi's bench spot against RHP and when the Phil's need speed. He has 20 SB this year.
I don't really think the Phils' *need* a bat, assuming Feliz returns healthy, because I have this strange belief that Jenkins will turn it around. But the idea that the Phils need to give up the Jason Donalds of their system to get better strikes me as false. They could just pick up Winn's contract.
Posted by: Sophist | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:22 AM
**** have this strange belief that Jenkins will turn it around. ****
I've been a strong proponent of that belief as well but I'm beginning to get worried. He's seemed lost at the plate since the end of May. He really looks like he's lost significant batspeed. I still haven't given up on him completely yet.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:28 AM
In a Q&A with Hagen earlier this week, Pat "Little Splash" Gillick said he didn't particularly like the non-waiver deadline.
Jack: Agree with your assessment on the proposed Marlins trade. Their refusal to deal Stanton, however, could cause the Pirates to back out.
Posted by: clout | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:30 AM
Considering what it took to get him, the Joe Blanton trade was a "major move". They could've had better pitchers for that same package, but weren't willing to spend more money. If the Phillies aren't willing to spend money, why would you want them to make a "major move"? I don't like giving up great young players for 1/2 year rentals.
The Manny trade will end up hurting the Marlins, like last year's Texiera trade hurt the Braves and the Zambrano trade hurt the Mets. The Marlins won't resign Manny, and probably won't get to the World Series with him, so they'll just end up losing him in a few months and being worse next year. If the Phillies can't beat out the Marlins with Manny, they probably won't beat out the Mets either. If the Phillies play like they did earlier this year, Manny won't matter.
Posted by: baxter | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:31 AM
What Gillick is saying better be a smoke screen, if it true, his end of the season in Philly can't come soon enough.
Either your in or out, there's no in between. If your team is this close to a WS birth your prospects are either playing at the big league level or trade peices. It's that simple. I'm still dreaming of the Rockies trade with Fuentes and Holliday.
Posted by: vegas | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:31 AM
Clout: I believe you mean "small" splash.
Little step. Small splash.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:31 AM
Gillick is and always has been hamstrung by Montgomery and the ownership group. He works within a very tight budget that prevents him from even considering bigger trades sometimes...like Sabathia.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Marlins might get Manny?! Are you f*#king kidding me?! ARRRRRRRRGH
Posted by: loctastic | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:36 AM
I guess we have different opinions if you consider Victorino a "game-changer" offensively. Victorino gets more steals and strikes out less. Every thing else involved with hitting a baseball, Jason Bay does better. He gets on base more, he hits more, he hits for more power, and he even scores more runs (despite playing in a worse offense and hitting lower in the lineup). He also has 7 steals on the year, has stolen 20 bases in a year before, and is not considered "slow", and also it would let Werth play every day, who has 11 steals on the year, and is pretty fast as well.
I'm not saying we should do the deal, as you're right that we would lose a lot defensively. But you claimed it would be a downgrade offensively, and I just don't see how that's the case. I get the argument that Shane is a "run-manufacturing" guy, but he's only an average on-base guy and he pops up all the time. He's also been caught 7 times in 32 steal attempts, which is a 78% rate, not much better than the 70% rate you need to have just to make stealing even worthwhile.
Posted by: Jack | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Look, we have nowhere to play Manny. We have no one both desirable and expendable on the ML roster, and no one in the minors anyone is dying to have. So how can we reasonably expect to get an impact player? There's no way we bundle up and trade the whole farm system for a guy who won't be here long. It may be fun to speculate about Manny, Burnett, Halladay, etc etc but there is no chance at all. And do you really want Gillick to blow up the farm system to try to go out in a final blaze of glory? Even if it were possible, it may not even make any difference. Think the Braves acquisition of Texiera for a boatload of prospects.
Posted by: curt | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Jason: That's right. "Small splash." Thanks for the correction.
Posted by: clout | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:38 AM
Trade deadline deja vu - the Cardinals are willing to deal Lohse.
I won't be to despondent if the Phils don't make a move today, I think its still possible they'll push something through waivers later, especially if they're taking on a big contract.
Posted by: Ribbies | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:38 AM
Maybe Gillick is a genius who is preventing the Manny trade from ever happening. We don't really want Manny, but we drive up the price by feigning interest, therefore the Pirates/Marlins/Red Sox deal never happens.
Whadya think?
Posted by: Greg S. | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:38 AM
Jack: There is no way Bay is a worse offensive player than Vic. In fact, it's not even close if you look at career stats.
Posted by: clout | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Just remember--there was a huge push a few years back to unload a young prospect (Chase Utley) for Kris Benson...
Just sayin'.
Posted by: Mike J | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:41 AM
Clout: But Victorino manufactures runs, right? Even though he scores less of them than that slow, strikeout-prone, useless Jason Bay?
Posted by: Jack | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:41 AM
Rhodes to the Marlins.
Posted by: Iceman | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:41 AM
Everyone knows they need another reliever, but they're guessing on the offense. To me, the offense could be just fine, or they could easily struggle. I'm on the fence. Blanton isn't an impact pitcher. He has two months to prove himself. The players don't want outside help according to reports.
Prevailing wisdom from the Phillies is that if they get better production from what they have, they will make the post-season. It's the same, basic approach to everything they do, including the draft. Make a wish.
Other teams, like LAA, have a different approach.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Jack: I don't know where the slow comes from either. About the only thing you could complain about is his best position is LF, not RF.
Posted by: clout | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Jack: There is no way Bay is a worse offensive player than Vic. In fact, it's not even close if you look at career stats.
Bottom line is I'd rather have Vic on the team at this point than Bay...one for one Bay is better offensively but with everything factored in Vic is more needed. Besides it would be Vic plus prospects and not a one for one anyway.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Still think Sabathia wasn't an option because Cleveland wanted a big minor league bat. The Phils don't have one.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:45 AM
I still think people are jumping the gun on the Blanton deal either because they a.) are pre-disposed against the deal, b.) have an inflated value of people in our farm system, c.) some combo of both.
That isn't to say I think Blanton is going to be a world beater. He's clearly not CC or Harden but the Phillies tried and couldn't pry CC from the Indians becasue they didn't have enough.
If Myers can put together a couple more starts like Tuesday we have the #2 starter we needed. And we didn't have to give up anything other than a few months of hand-wringing.
I'd be ok with Haap's call-up being our move to solidify the bullpen. After seeing him for a few years now I have faith in the guy.
I think adding a bat to the bench, or as the platoon guy in right is imperative but what do we give up for them. Is Randy Winn worth a higher end prospect, or is it better to wait until August where you can probably get him for a lower guy?
The biggest problem for the Phillies at the deadline is not so much their unwillingness to spend money- that isn't to say it isn't a problem. The bigger issue is this: All the "sexy free agent names play left field. Adam Dunn, Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez. And we already have a left fielder who is having a prety good year and might set career highs in home runs, OBP, and slugging. For any of those guys you would most likely either have to trade Burrell (which I think would upset the team chemistry) or move one of them to right field. As much as I would like that bat in a line-up I don't look forward to a guy learning a new position on the fly while we're battling for a playoff spot. Manny Ramirez has the most extensive right field experience but it's been 8 years since he played there with any regularity.
I just think at this deadline the Phillies are holding cards but they just aren't the right ones. That's unfortunate too for all the reasons people have mentioned about the window possibly closing.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:45 AM
If the Phils aren't dealing for pitching, it's not worth dealing big. These Manny/Holliday/Bay potentials... The Phillies don't NEED another big bat. They have a WS lineup (granted, it's been streaky). The rotation is barely playoff grade.
Plus, it's a rare deadline blockbuster that really pays off. I can't say I'm confident, but I'd rather Gillick stand Pat than get fleeced.
Posted by: chaz | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:46 AM
Its the ownership group folks!
No matter who the GM is or how experienced they are, the owners restrict the GM within many things expecially the budget. Its a shame. For once, you would just want the owners "have fun" and do something because it feels good to acquire and it feels good to win over the other teams for once. Even if the move over time fails, at least we took the chance and felt good for the month and the rest of the season. Think how a few big aquirements would feel for us this time of year... but still Go Phils!
Posted by: Michael Hrinda | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:49 AM
The missed opportunity might be the Nady/Marte deal. The Phillies could have topped the Yankees' offer.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:51 AM
I agree on Sabathia. The phils didn't have what the Indians wanted-period. I do believe, if they matched up, they would've gotten him. I think the talk that they wouldn't want him b/c of paying his contract the rest of the year is bunk. Gillick said the ownership wouuld take on a big contract.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:52 AM
Arthur Rhodes is a Marlin!!!
ROTFLMAO!!!
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:54 AM
"According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, the Marlins have acquired lefty reliever Arthur Rhodes for 22 year-old righty Gaby Hernandez. The Fish acquired Hernandez in '05 for Paul Lo Duca. Hernandez is a solid return for Rhodes, even if he struggled in a Triple A stint this year. He spent some time on the DL this year with a left intercostal strain."
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:54 AM
Now THAT's the kind of move I want to see the Marlins make!
Did you see he was the losing pitcher last night?
Posted by: doubleh | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Interesting. This looks like a move to match up against us better -- Fish had only 1 lefty out there. Old Art will be a Utley/Howard specialist around the 6th/7th inning.
Posted by: curt | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:00 AM
We already know whats coming so why get our hopes up?
The Phils need a better hitting catcher but don't want to get rid of Ruiz b/c of his repoire w/ the pitchers, so that won't happen.
They need a legit #2 starter but instead they traded away their good prospects for Blanton, so that's that.
They could use a replacement for Feliz if his injury is serious, but probably feel that a combo of Dobbs and Bruntlett pretty much replaces Feliz's production.
The only move they'll make will be for some unimpressive lefty reliever, probably after the non-waiver deadline.
Posted by: timr | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:00 AM
This entire day is just one long build-up to the announcement of the Jack Taschner to the Phillies trade.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:01 AM
We mock Rhodes now. Watch him come in and K Utley and Howard with some game on the line down the road.
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:01 AM
Truth: No one is "jumping the gun" on the Blanton deal. What is it in his history that makes you think his first 2 starts were some kind of aberration? Away from Oakland Coliseum, he has been a terrible pitcher his whole career.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:04 AM
It's pretty sad when a team with a $22 million payroll is willing to go and get one of the best players of all time, yet the Phillies seem content to get players like Joe Blanton.
That's why the Fish have 2 world series titles, and the Phils have 1 in 100+ years of existence.
Great job.
Posted by: Joe | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:05 AM
Joe, as it's been pointed out the Phils have no place to play Manny, and trading Burrell for him would be stupid.
Posted by: BobbyD | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:06 AM
BAP - Don't hold back, tell us what you really think about Blanton.
Posted by: curt | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:07 AM
The Rhodes trade basically just set the market price for the remaining lefty relievers...if the 38 year old Rhodes is worth a good pitching prospect (Gaby Hernandez is said to have #3 stuff) then what are the more impressive names worth?
Posted by: NEPhilliesPhan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I would like to see the Phillies get a lefty reliever(Mahay? I don't want to give up Donald though) and maybe a bench bat. If the starting rotation stays as it is, I wouldn't mind seeing three lefties in the pen (Romero, Happ, and mystery guy) because they would serve different roles. Romero is basically a glorified lefty specialist, Happ would be the long man because he can pitch to righties although he is better against lefties, and the mystery guy who be a late inning lefty set-up guy (Mahay? Fuentes?) who can actually pitch to righties as well.
I don't think they need a "big bat" but they could find somebody better than Taguchi or try to salary dump Jenkins and replace his roster spot.
I don't think the Phillies can or will get another starter after the Joe Blanton deal. But I don't think they will Happ who is probably better insurance for one of our starters than anybody else we would be able to get at this point.
I think the problem is more with the ownership group than with Gillick.
Posted by: philsphan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:14 AM
With all this talk about Manny Ramirez, ummm... why don't the Phillies go after Jason Bay? He's not a primadonna headcase, is just about an equivalent hitter, and he's under contract next year for not very much. His trade value is down bc he stunk last year (ie stopped taking PEDS), but apparently he's started again and is back to being a 130-140 OPS+ guy? What's not to like about him? What package would it take? Would Donald/Vic/Golson/Carrasco do it? Bc I'd do that in a heartbeat. Werth/Marson/Carrasco? That works for me too.
Posted by: Brian G | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:16 AM
Right, if Rhodes is worth Hernandez, what is Will Ohman worth?
Posted by: Sophist | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:16 AM
I didn't want Rhodes at all, but he will probably come in and burn us now with our luck. I worry now that they just won't make a deal at all. There's no way you can convince me that this team couldn't possibly get better by making some sort of a move, so sitting idle is inexcusable today.
Posted by: GreggyD | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:16 AM
"I still think people are jumping the gun on the Blanton deal either because they a.) are pre-disposed against the deal, b.) have an inflated value of people in our farm system, c.) some combo of both."
I agree with this completely. Trading away three A and AA prospects who will be lucky to reach the majors by 2010, if ever, for a serviceable #5 starter who can give you 200+ innings and has another year on his contract is a more than reasonable deal. Is it a steal? Of course not. It's a gamble...for both teams.
Philly could have Manny if they really wanted him. If they were willing to offer up Happ and Victorino, or possibly Happ and Jenkins, Manny would be in a Phillies uniform. I don't think they should offer Happ in any deal, but I'm just saying that they have what it takes to get the deal done if they were serious about mortgaging their future to win in 2008.
Posted by: Willie | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:17 AM
Griffey has officially accepted his trade to the WhiteSox...
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Btw: the PED thing was of course a joke.
Also, I'd do everything to try to make the package not include Victorino, which may work with them having McClouth.
Posted by: Brian G | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:20 AM
"no place to play Manny"
bullshit...for a player like Manny, you make room. Werth or Victorino might be part of the deal for him anyway, so there would be room. And if not, you trade Werth somewhere else for a reliever.
Posted by: Joe | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:20 AM
Willie: If you think Geoff Jenkins has any trade value whatsoever, nevermind enough value to be used in a package to get Manny Ramirez, you're crazy.
Posted by: Brian G | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Another year . . . same old pathetic execution from the Phils at the trading deadline. Other will decry the lack of prospects in the Phils' system, expensive asking of for premier talent, or the dollar figure attached. The issue is the Phils' made their primary move (Blanton) because it was at the right economic price. That is what is so sad especially the strong fan support the Phils will have.
The funny thing is that they are trying to maximize their profits this year but if they fail to make the playoffs this year it will cost them more than any possible money in players' salaries they would have acquired through the lack of playoff revenue, lower ticket sales next year, and the inability to raise ticket prices nearly as much as they did last offseason.
Guess you have to wait until the end of the season to see if the Phils make the playoffs but Gillick has been a fraud. Brought in to represent change and nothing couldn't have been further from the truth. If anything, he represented the status quo more than ever.
Sadly, if Amaro becomes GM (and I think he will be the most despised man in Philly sports in less than 12 months by a large margin), we will fondly recall the days of "Small Splash" Gillick.
Posted by: MG | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Jason Bay, vs. righties: .307/.387/.566/.953
vs. lefties: .190/.333/.345/.679
Platoon with Werth?
For his career, though, he's .283/.371/.515./.886 against righties and .276/.389/.515/.904 against lefties. I'm not sure what to make of his struggles against lefties this year. If you value his numbers this year more than his career numbers, Bay doesn't seem like a great fit for this lineup.
Posted by: paco | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Manny can't play anywhere but LF...and he sucks there defensively too.
2008 OPS:
Manny: .926
Burrell: .985
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Joe - he meant LF is taken. Our OF would be Burrell-Vic-Manny, if you want to put him in RF. Vic? Do you want Manny in CF?
Posted by: Sophist | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:24 AM
BAP: What is so bad about Jack Taschner? Am I missing something here? This team could use another lefty in the pen, especially if Happ needs to be in the rotation, and is number look pretty good. He could be cheaper than John Grabow and seems to be at least as good as him. His stats in 06 and 07 were bad but he was good in 05 and could be turning a corner. I mean he is not Fuentes, Sherrill, or Mahay, but he could still help this club and be more affordable than those guys and wouldn't be a rental.
Look at Chad Durbin's career stats. His career ERA is 5.29 but he is certainly helping the Phillies this year. That's baseball you never know what is going to happen.
Posted by: philsphan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Bay is not slow. He was playing center a few years back. He might not steal bases anymore, but he is anything but a slow plodding slugger. I would take him in a second and insert him in right.
Posted by: Alex | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I'd like to see the Manny Marlin trade crumble just so I could be entertained nightly on BBT with him finding creative ways to dog it on the field.
Posted by: vegas | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Manny as 3b.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:26 AM
With Rhodes going to the Marlins, it just increases the likehood that we'll get no one at all. I was of the belief that a trade(other than Blanton) would be made. Now, I sincerely doubt it. Whether it's Gillick or the owners, it really doesn't matter does it? The bottom line is that very little was,is, or will be done to imorove a team that obviously needs improving. If I'm wrong, then feel free to rip me here. That's how I feel about the situation. Every year it's the same thing, all talk no action. That's all i've got to say.
Posted by: DPatrone | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:27 AM
That is the things that drives me nuts about the Phils' financial thinking. Better to know me might make X (much smaller amount) and be incredibly conservative than take a bit of a bigger gamble and make a much larger profit. There are some very successful business people who are part-time owners of the Phils but it is clear they aren't running things (Giles/Montgomery) are.
Posted by: MG | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Rumor of Ohman for Happ and Golson
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:27 AM
to BB: LOL...it wouldn't be any worse than Helms out there last year.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:27 AM
****Rumor of Ohman for Happ and Golson****
Yeah I saw that yesterday...
~shudders~
I don't recall Ohman being worth that much.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:30 AM
BAP: Again let me start by saying (becasue I know someone, not you, will try and twist this) I don't think Blanton is an ace. He's a borderline number 2 starter in a rotation.
There are a few things I hold out for. Career wise August has always been his best month. llso, last year was the first seaosn where there was a huge difference between his home and road splits. In '05 it was 3.35 home versus 3.73 away. In '06 it was 4.52 versus 5.12. In '07 it was 2.69 versus 5.11. In '08 it has been 4.73 versus 5.98. Is that the beginning of a trend or a bit of an aberration? It went from being a half run or less to being 2 and a half runs higher last year.
I think there are some people who saw the Brewers get CC, saw the Cubs get Harden, and then saw us get Blanton. Of course, Blanton isn't the same as those other two. So by comparison it looks worse and creates a general malaise towards it. Again, that's not everybody.
The larger issue to me is this though. I still think our perceived worth of Cardenas and Outman is lower than how other people see our guys. Cardenas very well might be a contributor- but that's at least 2 years down the road. Outman might be a contributor (I think he will be the piece we regret more losing) but that's probably next September at least.
Blanton may very well turn out to be a bum and not worth what we gave up. I don't think we cna make that distinction though after two starts which too many people are doing.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:30 AM
The Phils are risk averse; they run the team like a Mom & Pop shop. They like low risk, high reward, and sometimes it works out. But most of the time it's low risk, low reward.
Posted by: doubleh | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:31 AM
BB: If we trade Happ bc of the misguided notion that we need another "experienced" LOOGY to pair with Romero... I will break things.
Posted by: Brian G | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:33 AM
Truth~
You're right and I've echoed your sentiments previously. Blanton can't be judged on 7 innings pitched.
BB~ If they give up that much for Ohlman, they're nuts.
Posted by: DPatrone | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:33 AM
Why on earth would the Phillies deal two of their top young players to a division rival? I understand Ohman is a lefty reliever and is having a pretty decent season, but this year is just the second time in his career that his ERA has been under 4.00.
Posted by: GreggyD | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Wow, is the market inflated if the cost of Will Ohman is a just about MLB ready starting pitcher and an OF prospect. That seems a bit ridiculous.
Posted by: doubleh | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:34 AM
willie: "If they were willing to offer up Happ and Victorino, or possibly Happ and Jenkins, Manny would be in a Phillies uniform."
Willie, you aren't being serious, are you? I like Happ & I like Victorino but the two of them together wouldn't land you Jacoby Ellsbury, let alone Manny Ramirez.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:35 AM
"I don't think Blanton is an ace. He's a borderline number 2 starter in a rotation."
In what rotation from hell?
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:35 AM
- Perfect. Arthur Rhodes To the Marlins. The irony will be that he will probably suck against everybody but the Phillies when he pitches too. Isn't that always the case?
- I too feel that Gillick has had his hands tied when it comes to certain deals. How could you wake up one morning and say to yourself, "We gotta acquire that Joe Blanton from the A's. He eats anything you put in front of him, including innings. That should put us in the driver's seat in the NL East. Boy, I can't wait to call Billy Beane and see what promising prospects he wants for him."
- The thing that drives me crazy is that the Phillies FO never seem to have a real good plan in place for anything. They place importance on marketing and making money, not winning. Drafting? Nope. Trades? Nope. Prospects? Nope. Minor League System? Nope. Scouting in the Dominican or Japan? Nope. Bobbleheads? Yep. Value Village Cheap replacements? Yep. Dollar Dog Nights? Yep. Need I continue? Nope.
Posted by: Mr. Mack | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I hear the phils are in a 3way trade with the yanks and bosox... Phils get ARod and Manny, yanks get Carlos Ruiz, bosox get Tom Gordon.
its pretty much a done deal at this point
Posted by: cipper | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:38 AM
BB- If Blanton found some consistency he's a number two guy in some rotations. As it is he's a number 3 rotation guy for many teams in the league.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:39 AM
I wasn't impressed with Ohman when they came to town. That's about what Golson is, though, a throw-in for this type of deal.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:39 AM
"I think there are some people who saw the Brewers get CC, saw the Cubs get Harden, and then saw us get Blanton."
These people are stupid. Seriously? Who said this?
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Happ and Golson for Ohman is too much. I don't even like Happ for Ohman, although Ohman has been very, very good this year. He has the best numbers of any of the relievers listed on the market.
147 ERA+. 1.111 WHIP, .160/.218/.259 against lefties (his numbers against RHB are almost as good as Rhodes' numbers against LHB). Only 2 of 17 inherited runners have scored on his watch and that was on April 15th!
Posted by: Sophist | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:40 AM
No way should the Phillies include Happ in any deal involving a 2nd tier bullpen arm.
Posted by: UD Hens | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:41 AM
Blanton's second start should not really count when evaluating him because the game had a rain delay and both starting pitchers were pulled. Moyer gave up 3 runs in the 1st inning last night and then pitcher 5 scoreless innings. I'm not saying Blanton would have done the same, but its not fair to judge a 2 inning start when a guy did not get pulled because of his performance but because of the weather. We won't be able to fully evaluate this trade until we know how Blanton does over the next 2 years and 2 months, and how the prospects the A's got perform. We'll have to wait until at least '09 but more likely '10 to properly decide if this was a good trade or not. That said, I currently think it was a bad trade and the Phillies should have gone after another starter.
Posted by: philsphan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:42 AM
"As it is he's a number 3 rotation guy for many teams in the league."
What teams? Based on what metric?
Truth, what are you talking about? I've defended a "wait-and-see" approach with Blanton, but you're straining credulity. Consistency? What do you even mean by that statement?
Posted by: Sophist | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:42 AM
Amazing that over 30 sellouts already this season can't cause the team to add much payroll.
Posted by: Alex | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:43 AM
did anyone read Gillicks Q and A with hagen the other day?? it really irked me
the question was, what would it take for this season to be considered a success?? and gillick says "to go to the world series"...isnt the goal to actually WIN the world series??? i think this quote epitomizes the mentality in the FO and unfortunately, is what we the fans have known all along
Posted by: Dan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Ohman gave up HRs to both Utley and Howard this year, didn't he? Not exactly what you want out of a LOOGY. He might be the best of what's remaining on the market this year, but that's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Taschner and Grabow both have higher career ERA's than their current stats as well.
Posted by: doubleh | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Truth: Blanton is most definitely NOT a borderline No. 2 starter. He has had one good season in his career: 2005. Last year he was good at home but, when he pitched in a real ball park that doesn't have an enormous foul territory, he was a No. 5 caliber starter. Same with 2006. This year, he has been Eaton-esque.
The people who keep saying that Blanton shouldn't be "pre-judged" are acting like he was dropped out of a space capsule, with a note attached to him that said, "Try me for pitching help." Actually, he came with a well-established track record of being an exceptionally mediocre pitcher at best -- and a terrible one at worst. Are we allowed to judge him based on this long-term track record, or does it all get wiped clean once he dons Phillie pin-stripes?
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:45 AM
I would trade Golson and a mid to low level prospect for Ohman but not Happ.
Posted by: philsphan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:45 AM
"the question was, what would it take for this season to be considered a success?? and gillick says "to go to the world series"...isnt the goal to actually WIN the world series???"
Seriously, stop over analyzing.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:46 AM
glad that Rhodes went to the Marlins for the simple fact that he won't be in the Phillies bullpen. But as an added bonus, we get to face him in late game situations when playing the Fish.
Posted by: Joe | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Jason: Yeah, Golson for Ohman would be fine if they really felt they needed Ohman. But Happ could be securing the mid to bottom of our rotation (a al Kendrick) for the next 5 years. He is the type of guy that prevents us from feeling the need to give Adam Eaton 24 million dollars. You don't give that away for half a season of a decent LOOGY having a career year.
Posted by: Brian G | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:47 AM
Where did this Ohman rumor even come from? It's not posted on MLBtraderumors. . .
Posted by: Sophist | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:47 AM
BAP: Blanton had good season in 2005 and 2007. Maybe he just likes odd numbered seasons?
Posted by: philsphan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:48 AM
In their defense, the deal didn't happen. It was probably just a proposal on the Braves side...maybe Kotsay was also being considered, etc etc etc.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Beard...not over analyzing at all...a quotes a quote...poll every GM...unless you are the pirates, every one of them will say the goal is to WIN the world series...obvi im not saying gillick doesnt want to win, but actions speak louder than words
Posted by: Dan | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:49 AM
****Where did this Ohman rumor even come from? It's not posted on MLBtraderumors. . .****
It was mentioned on CSN last night.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:49 AM
BAP: Completely agree with you. And I loved that "space capsule" analogy. Well done.
Posted by: Brian G | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:49 AM
The Marlins got their lefty reliever, still bidding on Manny, and I expect them to land a catcher yet. They're already a threat that is about to get even more threatening.
Posted by: GM-Carson | Thursday, July 31, 2008 at 11:51 AM