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Saturday, July 19, 2008


Holliday isn't so tremendous when he's not at Coors. I could see needing him after the Phils let Pat walk, but not now.

I'm not really sure what to think about Holliday. The obvious is that we're giving up the farm for another bat when offense hasn't been the problem. So, we're left with no ammo to go upgrade this starting rotation over the next year and a half.

As for the players involved, I would love to get a hitter like Holliday into the lineup. The biggest concern are his home/road splits, but in that regard, Holliday has been a .300 hitter outside of Coors in 2007/2008 and his average has improved significantly outside of Coors Field. So, I don't know if that is as much of an issue as it would seem at first. Holliday is a hitter that is not an all or nothing type of hitter and would come in here and have the best batting average of a regular. That is definitely an issue they need to work on improving and I think it would help produce runs more consistently.

Fuentes, solid bullpen guy. Wouldn't mind picking him up at all.

I would like this trade for the Phillies if Myers were to be a decent starting pitcher. Not a 1-2 type starter, just a solid #3.

Now THAT would be a real "win now" type of trade.

Also, another thing that I think has been significant with Holliday's home/road splits is that his RBI totals always drop. I'm not too worried about the HR road/home totals, because he should still hit HRs here. I think his road RBI totals would rise if he were traded to the Phillies. The Phillies have a good lineup home/road, whereas the Rockies as a whole seem to do significantly better at home.

The Phils need a No.2 starter more than Holliday and Fuentes. Their current No.2 is 3-9 plus 1-3 in minor league games. Overall in games Myers has started this year at the ML, AAA, AA and high A levels his teams are 5-16. Should be interesting Weds. night at Shea.

Happ with his 12 K's in his last outing and Carrasco with a strong four inning outing last night including striking out Matt Wieter twice swinging show both must be considered at some point for the Phils rotation, not trade bait.

Obviously, the Phils don't have the division locked up, and this move would only increase their competitiveness for the title in that it removes some of their weaknesses. Fuentes would immediately be the second best pitcher in the 'pen (second highest K9, lowest BB/9) and the Phils' set-up man. Holliday would remove the Phils' platoon situation to an extent, who's been a big disappointment. But only to an extent because it appears we'd lose Vic and start playing a guy with .701 OPS against RHP everyday. Holliday doesn't seem to have a platoon problem this year FWIW (.984 OPS against LHP, .957 OPS against RHP) so we wouldn't need to trot Jenkins out in RF. Our bench would be strengthened against RHP.

Defense and team speed would suffer, but the offensive gains would be great. Werth isn't chopped liver in CF or on the paths anyway. I do think we'd miss Vic.

The move would make the Phils' front-runners again for the East. The big problem this team has would largely remain however. Secret Sauce says that successful playoff teams have power SP (high K9), dominate closers, and great defense. This move would strengthen out pen and weaken our defense. It would strengthen our 'pen overall, but it isn't the move that will help this team make a better run in the playoffs.

I think I'd only be interested in this sort of trade if Holliday were signed to an extension as part of the deal. Otherwise, it seems like a steep price to have him for so short a period.

This is preposterous and ridiculous! The Phils won't touch any Scott Boras client one year from free agency. Besides, the structure of the payroll in the years to come would be out of kilter. This sounds like a Randy Miller rumor. Or a Ken Rosenthal one. Rosenthal used to be a good writer until he started writing rumors and not facts. Miller, his sources are his own mind

From the prior thread:
"I think that we should have just moved Durbin up to the rotation instead of acquiring Blanton. Durbin was a starter in Detroit.. "

No, don't mess with Durbin in the pen. He's been stellar there and without him the pen looks much more bleak when we have a starter only go 3 or 4 innings.

Yeah, you can't move Durbin.

If Myers were a #2 starter, this deal would be much more enticing. If Myers were a #2 and they wanted Werth instead of Vic, I'd be very tempted by this deal.

No, No and No.

Make another move for a bat off the bench and a maybe a lefty reliever, and that's all this team needs.

Don't mortgage the few good, young, and cheap prospects you have. And, the Phils likely will not.

It's early where I am. Excuse the typos in my post.

You know, I say I'm worried about starting Werth everyday because of his severe split (1.103 against LHP, .701 against RHP), but then I check and Vic's splits are .795 against LHP and .741 against RHP so the offensive downgrade against RHP in CF wouldn't be so great.

It's just a question of the downgrade defensively and basepath speed.

"It's just a question of the downgrade defensively and basepath speed."

Yeah, I don't know that I'd enjoy the downgrade, although Werth has shown himself to be able to steal bags. He may not have the raw speed, but he has the smarts... and smarts is all it takes sometimes.

I really wonder how these rumors get started?

Do the writers just write down a bunch of stories (regardless of truth) that that they think would be interesting and throw them in a hat to be drawn?

Unlike the Sabathia/Bedard/Burnett situation, I haven't even let myself begin to accept this as having any shed of truth or reality. I thought Sabathia was a dream. This is some kind of delusional fantasy. It is truly someone's perverse attempt at humor. I'm not laughing.

BTW: If the Phillies get Matt Holliday, feel free to lambast me with criticism. In the meantime, wake me up when something real comes down the wire, like getting John Grabow or Ray King. King, of course would be horrible, but that is kind of the point, right?

No, wait, I think someone hit it the other day. The Phillies just throw out a piece of filet to us dogs so that we think that we are getting something quality. Then what we really end up with is low grade horse meat once dinner is served.

I fully expect that there will be a move made on the heels of this leak. I can see the FO's quote now:

"We tried to get Matt Holliday, but the price was too high. We have decided to pick up Bernie Williams. Yes, he's been out of the league for a few years, but we think he will really help the team. And we have also added Rheal Cormier, who has been pitching great in the Canadian Saskatoon Reindeer League. Both additions address immediate needs."

Myers' first batter last night:

"Manatees centerfielder Darren Ford tested Myers right out of the gate. The leadoff hitter pushed Myers to a 12-pitch at-bat, then lined a single to centerfield."

Didn't the first batter in his last game take him deep?

BedBeard: Yes, but the story in the paper today says that Myers has been working on his fastball on the assumption that minor league prospects are good fastball hitters. Probably not a bad assumption.

His stats for his 4 game minor league journey can be found here:

If he's been focusing on the fastball I don't have a problem with these stats (2.5 ER per game AAA, 2 ER AA, 2 ER A+). His problem before he went down was that he was not mixing up his pitches enough because he couldn't establish his fastball. So if he's straightened out his fastball and has regained confidence in it then this is okay. A 1-3 record in these starts is irrelevant.

Our opening day starter gives up 7 hits and 2 ER to single A hitters, and the guy the FO keeps ignoring goes 7 no hit innings with 12K's against triple AAA.

Parker and Willy - Agreed. This type of rampant speculation seems to get out of hand until the trade dead line. File this under the "slightly interesting" category only.

Once again, the Phils logic seems perplexing. They need to upgrade their pitching. I would love if the Phils would get Fuentes. Would automatically move right into Gordon's role as the primary setup-man, would reduce the burden on Madson and Romero, and allow Cholly to mix and match more effectively with a 2nd lefty in the pen. If the Phils get Gordon back at some point this season, then it justs would be a boost to what might be the best pen in the NL this season.

If anything, I would still the Phils try to pick up Burnett in a trade for Myers. Only thing is that it would likely require the Phils to pick up Burnett's entire contract along with sending a prospect back to the Blue Jays. I would love to see a Burnett-Myers deal where the Phils put in Golson and maybe another prospect from A.

If the Phils are going to actually do something in the playoffs, then they need to continue to upgrade their pitching. Blanton simply isn't the kind of move that makes a difference come playoff time.

More and more, it sounds like both Myers and the Phils are searching for excuses (reasons) why he has struggled in his minor league appearances so far.

If Myers still thinks he is a power pitcher with his fastball, then he will continue to struggle upon his return. It might help if he can throw it for strikes a bit more consistency but he has to realize that his 89/90 MPH fastball isn't going to overpower hitters.

Somehow I just doubt that Myers is able to expect that the fact that he is now going to primary have to rely upon location at this point in his career to get by.

Myers just needs location, if he can get the location down, he can dominate. Hopefully someone can figure out how to do that for him.

Not enough there to win a World Series. That trade would be reminiscent of trading the whole roster for Eric Lindros when the Flyers sent Forsberg and a half-dozen others out of town for the superstar who had trouble cutting the apron strings. After we got to one Stanley Cup final, Colorado won two or three with the package that was gift wrapped to them. No thanks. Besides, these minor leaguers aren’t that far away from the show to let go now IMO.

I don't know if it was mentioned on a previous thread, I've been behind on my beerleaguer reading... but Heyman from SI had floated a Holliday for Beltran rumor the other day.

The offer that was "floated" to the Mets had Holliday and center fielder Willy Taveras headed to New York for center fielder Carlos Beltran and top prospect outfielder Fernando Martinez. However, the Mets don't want to deal Beltran, and it is unlikely he would even waive his no-trade clause to allow the deal to go through anyways.

I wonder if this 'rumor mongering' is just posturing by the Phillies and Mets as we approach the Deadline, not unlike when the Red Sox and the Yankees fight over the same player?

Can you cry rape? That’s what would happen to our minor league system if this trade were made. Holliday still hasn’t touched home base, however he seems to have touched off some good posts so far.

I'm not sure I agree that there wouldn't be enough there to win a WS, if that trade went down. That'd be a helluva team.

If they'd sub in Golson and take out Marson, I'd be much happier.

No, it can't be .....

A parachutist went off course in Fort Riley, Kansas Thursday at the start of a military review and dropped feet-first into the 1st Infantry Division's band, injuring three players. Several thousand people watched as the man under the red, white and blue parachute landed on the 30-member band, about 50 yards off target. A gasp went up from the crowd, followed by silence as at least a dozen people rushed over to help. The three injured band members were treated and released from Irwin Army Community Hospital. The unknown parachutist refused treatment at the scene. "We know that they're going to be all right," said Gen. Charles Campbell, head of the Army's Forces Command, during opening remarks. Two tubas and a trumpet were destroyed, said Mike Keating, assistant chief of the post's Fire Department.

@MG - bias against Myers much?

WHIP 1.15
ERA 3.00
28K/7BB (4 of which came in his first two starts when he was still working out his issues) Since it's been a 16 to 3 K/BB ratio.

I'm unsure what kind of "numbers" you think he should be performing at?

He should be no-hitting his way through the system?

This Minor League stint is not much different than rehab performances. You can call it mental/mechanical rehab.

his 1 and 3 record shouldn't even be brought up. He picked up the losses in his last 2 outings where he gave up a grand total of 4 earned runs. Those losses are more of an indicator of our shallow lineups in A and AA, than a negative against Myers.

Oh boy do I hate the idea of this trade. It's exactly the kind of move Ed Wade would make.

Don't let yourselves get blinded by Holliday's star status. The Phillies don't need an offensive upgrade like this, not at the cost of a 1.5 year rental for the remaining starting pitching in their farm system. THAT'S what the Phils have to trade for, nothing else.

You trade to address weaknesses, not strengths. The bullpen and offense are strengths on this team. Granted, Fuentes would make the pen incredible, and Holliday would make the lineup unstoppable, but the cost is too high. Happ and Carrasco have an open spot when Eaton leaves after next year. 1 of those two should fill in very well at the back end. Let's also remember that Moyer will probably retire after this year. The man's 45 years old. You're also counting on Myers returning to form, and oh wait, his contract is up after 2009 too.

This makes no sense long term, or even short term. WE NEED STARTING PITCHING. Trading for anything else is a waste.

That doesn't actually seem like a particularly good trade, do we really need Holliday or Fuentes?

If we can't outpitch them, we may as well outslug them. Addign Holliday to this lineup would be sickness.

They do need a lefty reliever, so Fuentes does work. He'd really add a great arm to an already good pen. If he was added and Myers comes back similar to what he used to be, this staff will be upgraded(including Blanton). Fuentes would be more attractive if he was under contract next year.

I had previously decided that I was not going to comment about this "rumored trade talk" speculation's complete lack of meritoriousness, however, the fact that it is being "kind of" taken seriously irks me enough to say something.

1.) It makes no sense: If the Phillies were going to go all out and mortgage the whole farm, why not do it for a prime pitcher? The absolute last thing this team needs is a player that would be out of position and best case scenario, would cause an eruption of the offense every once in a while. The current lineup is capable of such eruption already. Unless Matt Holliday can go 7-8 innings allowing 1-2 runs in October, it "would be" (assuming all was true in the media world of rumor/borderline irresponsible half truth) foolish.
2.) Where was Matt Holliday when the Red Sox swept the Rockies last season? Oh, I forgot, he was busy getting mowed down by superior pitching. How clumsy of me to forget that teams in the playoffs usually have 1-2 pitchers that can neutralize even the best hitters in a short series.
3.) It is probably not true: Pat Gillick, in the excitement of the moment, probably got all schnokered up on some Gentelman Jack after he acquired the big Tennessee boy (Blanton), and started calling all his GM buddies, proposing wild trades and hunting trips, all the while laughing at the media for believing that any of it was true.

Eaton to the bullpen seems like a bait-cutting move. Why not just do the obvious thing and cut him loose? It would hardly be the first time a team on a budget swallowed a big salary because somebody in the front office guessed wrong. At this point the only other option would seem to be finding a trading partner with an equally useless $7M/yr. spare part; the GMs involved could trot out their usual "change of scenery" quotes and face would be saved all around.

"...If anything, I would still the Phils try to pick up Burnett in a trade for Myers."

What, in God's name makes you think that anyone would want to get Myers in a trade? Sure, it would be great if the Phils could trade Myers plus a prospect for Holiday. It would be even better if they could trade a bag of baseballs plus a prospect for Holiday.

Like Parker, I'd much rather see them go for a legit #2 starter than the rumored trade.

Still, if that doesn't happen, and it sure doesn't look like it will happen, I'd love to see this trade also. The lineup and bullpen would both, arguably, be the best in baseball.

But I'd rank the chances of the FO having the stones to pull this off at around 5.64%

To the point about Holliday against the Red Sox in the World Series and the pitchers he faced and what not...he hit .294. Against the Phillies in one less game, he hit .231.

As to what I think your main point was, "It makes no sense: If the Phillies were going to go all out and mortgage the whole farm, why not do it for a prime pitcher?"

There is no longer a prime pitcher on the market that they can mortgage the whole farm to get. Harden was not that guy, Sabathia was that guy depending on how you feel about him leaving after half a season. From there, you absolutely do not have a prime pitcher on the market that you can mortgage the farm to get.

Burnett? Tons of flaws. Bedard? Injury concerns. There is no way you could consider either of those a prime pitcher. Could they improve the team, sure, prime pitcher, absolutely not. Who else is going to be out there the next few weeks? Zack Grienke? Daniel Cabrera? Randy Wolf? Gil Meche? Jarrod Washburn? Kevin Millwood? Bronson Arroyo?

Could you make cases that one of those pitchers could improve the Phillies? Certainly. I don't think you could make a case that one of them is a prime pitcher that you want to even trade Carrasco for, though.

So, the market being the market, there is only one prime player out there. He's a hitter and is completely different from a lot of our lineup in that he's going to hit .325. Holliday doesn't just add a body into the lineup that will help the lineup explode every once and a while. Holliday will be a capable hitter that will be more consistent than most of the hitters we currently have.

Do I think necessarily that they should make the move? Not really. I don't think I would mind it, though and I do think that it makes sense to talk about. Their rotation is done. Given that, how else can they improve the team? A consistent hitter that doesn't have an all or nothing approach is not a bad idea.

The player I would have liked them to target would be Jason Bay and not Holliday because the price would probably be a bit lower. But, either way, it does make sense to look at acquiring another hitter.

Fuentes is a free agent after this season, wants to be a closer, and wants to stay out west, so we'd have to hope that he was declared a Type A free agent and be willing to accept compensatory draft picks. K-Rod, Kerry Wood, and Brandon Lyon, I think, would all be ahead of him on other teams' wish lists.

...which means he could accept arbitration, however unlikely, and saddle us with another $8 million +/- in payroll inflexibility for the `09 campaign.

Alby: Between next year and the remainder of this year Eaton is owed about $11M. They will not cut him.

Before trading Carrasco, they should bring him up and have him pitch one game each against the Mets, Marlins, Braves and Nationals. The guy throws 96 and no one has seen him yet. For all we know, he could mow down the entire NL East before anyone figures him out.

I've said for awhile that I think this team needs another. But trading Happ AND Carrasco would be insane -- and throwing in Marson and Vic would only make it that much more insane. If PG made this move, he be saying, "Screw you fans. I'm done after this year, so why should I care about this team's future?" Not to mention that it would be based on the very kind of erroeous thinking I talked about yesterday with regard to Holliday: the thinking that he is some kind of Vlad Guerrero/Manny Ramirez type offensive force when, away from Coors, he's merely a very good offensive player, but not an impact one.

I'd be PISSED if they traded Happ and Carrasco (Where would the Phils be if they traded Kendrick?), but this lineup would be fun to watch:

1. S Rollins SS
2. L Utley 2b
3. R Holliday RF
4. L Howard 1B
5. R Burrell LF
6. R Werth CF
7. R Feliz 3B
8. R Ruiz C
9. L Hamels P

King: It has come to my attention that to "mow down" hitters from quality teams that -- even if you throw 100 mph -- you have to be able to throw strikes consistently and, more importantly, throw them in the right location. Carrasco may someday be able to do that at the major league level. But there is nothing in his performance at AA that suggests he can do it now.

King: The bottom 4 in that lineup would especially be fun to watch for opposing RHP (except for Hamels who's the best hitter of those 4 vs. RHP).

BA vs. RHP

Hamels .306
Werth .242
Feliz .247
Ruiz .208

"saddle us with another $8 million +/- in payroll inflexibility for the `09 campaign." (Fuentes)

I wouldn't mind being "saddled" with a guy like Fuentes. "Sadddled would be Tom Gordon's salary again next year, not Fuentes.

And i'm with Hibachi: I'm not really seeing another "prime" pitcher out there. I still think Burnett would be nice, only at a certain price and it seems like the Phils have moved on.

As several posters have pointed out, if you do the Holliday deal as proposed you wind up with a lineup vs. RHP that, when the Phils use a righty pitcher, includes 4 righthanded very easy outs at the bottom. You're essentially giving up 10-12 outs before the game begins although the other 15 outs would be much harder to get. If I were an opposing manager I'd go after Rollins, throw only bad stuff to the middle of the lineup, not care about walks and get to the black hole at the bottom to fatten the Phils LOB totals.

This deal is not going to happen. But, if it did, the Phillies would be in a position to reload their farm system quickly with all of the picks they would acquire. Fuentes and Burrell would produce first round and supplemental picks in 2008, and Holiday would produce a first round and supplemental in 2009. Of course we just need the front office to draft something other than tools-y players who will take 5 years to develop. Even if Fuentes accepted arbitration, he becomes trade bait - an 8 million dollar closer who is likely a one year rental could bring back something good.

man i hate espn insider dose any one have it and can they tell me what it says

@sam: Here are the Phils-related rumors from ESPN insider over the last couple of days:


Saturday July 19 - According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies were discussing a deal that would have brought outfielder Matt Holliday and closer Brian Fuentes to Philadelphia in exchange for a package of players, likely consisting of outfielder Shane Victorino, left-hander J.A. Happ, Double-A right-hander Carlos Carrasco and Double-A catcher Lou Marson. However, the talks have since stalled and it is unlikely that deal will be revisited.


Friday, July 18 - Freddy Garcia is close to being physically ready to work out for teams interested in acquiring him, his agent Peter Greenberg told Kat O'Brien of Newsday. Garcia has not throw since last season as he recovers from right labrum surgery.

His next scheduled throwing session will be a 45-pitch bullpen on Friday in which he will throw only fastballs and changeups, he will then add breaking balls in the next session.

According to Greenberg, Garcia is looking for a one-year deal, but said, "If there's somebody that wants to sign him to a multiyear deal, we'll be receptive to that. Our preference is just to sign Freddy for the rest of this year."


Nothing we haven't already heard about here on BL.

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