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Tuesday, July 15, 2008

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In a Stan Hochman column today, we get this quote:

""Last year," Seidman points out, "Howard's strikeout ratio was 37.8 and this year it's 36. However, he walked 18.8 percent of the time last year and is doing so only 11.7 percent this year.""

Hochman is writing about a 22-year old guy named Eric Seidman who has a book on statistics coming out. He's a Philly guy so he's talking about Burrell and Howard in the column. I swear this guy must be on this blog. Is he clout?

Since CJ carried over from the last thread, I will too. Duh, you're a moron. Get a sense of humor.

As for this thread, I saw the item about Garcia also. I suppose there's no harm in "tracking" him, as he was once a good pitcher and, if he could make a full recovery, I suppose he could be again. But the odds of it happening immediately upon his return are exceedingly low. And the fact that he's only throwing in the mid-80s doesn't exactly inspire confidence. This is not a play that needs a second act. Gillck would be justifiably lambasted by the Phillies fans and media if he brought back a guy who was a colossal bust the first time around.

Randy Miller said on Jody Mac's show this morning that he thinks that Bedard is out of the Phils' plans. Unlike other times he's been on, i felt like he was winging it when coming up with what he thinks will happen, though.

If Freddy Garcia is the arm added for the pennant race... I think I may be sick.

Due dilligence on Garcia is one thing, but for him to be the "answer", is another. We already have one guy (Benson) who's recovering from injury and not going to help this team.

The police track sex offenders, too! That's the analogy to use here. The Phillies are tracking him to be sure he doesn't get too close to CBP.

I heard Seth Everett of MLB.com this morning on the FOX Sports radio morning show. He said the Phils were still looking at Burnett, with a stickler being that they WANT him to opt out after this year and if he doesn't, they want the Blue Jays to pick up the bulk of his salary the next 2 years. Phils were only team Seth mentioned by name, but he also said other teams are asking for the same thing...

My preferences:

1. Trade for AJ Burnett using any minor league resources other than Carrasco or Marson.

1a. (If no Burnett) Trade for Erik Bedard using any minor league resources other than Carrasco or Marson.

2. Give Myers one more shot at the rotation and if he fails, send him to the bullpen.

3. Dump Eaton... if Myers comes up and fails, give Happ the spot in the rotation and if he ends up failing then give Carrasco a try.

I'm reading where Francisco Rodriguez of the Anaheim Angels leads MLB with 38 saves. The "Saves" stat is another bogus stat. It is dependent on the team winning the game. It's like Howard's RBI stat, totally meaningless. What's his VORP?

"being that they WANT him to opt out after this year and if he doesn't, they want the Blue Jays to pick up the bulk of his salary the next 2 years."

Second part doesn't sound that likely, without the Phils making the deal worthwhile.

I think Toronto needs to trade Burnett to us as payback for beating us in the 1993 WS.

I think Seattle should give us Bedard and Toronto should give us Burnett as retirement presents for our lame-duck GM.

Ugh. That Mariners speculation really bothers me.

Okay... let's deal Marson and Donald to Toronto for Burnett AND deal Carrasco and Golson to Seattle for Bedard.

Rotation:
Hamels
Burnett
Bedard
Kendrick
Moyer

Bullpen:
Lidge
Myers
Romero
Madson
Durbin
Condrey
Gordon/Seanez (whichever is healthy at the time)

Now THAT's a plan! (Okay, I'm done with my fantasy baseball for the day.)

CJ, I'd rather get Burnett and Brian Fuentes. Adding Fuentes to that bullpen would make them far and away the best bullpen in the NL.

TK: Yeah... I think getting Fuentes would be great, but I don't think he's even close to worth either of our top two prospects and the Rockies have said the discussion STARTS there. That's just crazy.

CJ - The sad part about that rotation as pure fantasy is that it's not even that over-powering. Part of being a Phils fan is getting used to mediocrity in pitching as a ceiling. (But yeah, I'd be happy with that.)

Jason - In re: Gillick trading to Gillick, I've been saying that for weeks (except for my silence lately due to computer issues and high work volume). On one hand, I want to make jokes about it. But on the other hand, what kind of checks and balances exist to make sure he doesn't trade Carrasco and Marson and Savery/Cardenas for Bedard? MLB's old boys network? I am not convinced that something along those lines is not in the works.

Too scary to joke about.

Checks and balances? Absolutely none...unless the ownership group steps in to veto the deal.

Yeah, I think ownership is the check & balance. And if our owners value anything, it's cheap labor. I don't think they'd sit idly by while Gillick trades the whole system to Seattle.

On a side note, Chase Utley dislodged Michael Jack as my favorite Phillie of all time with his comment last night at the AS Game. Now's that's a Philadelphia ballplayer!!!

Andy: Good point, there has to be some system in place to make sure that self dealing doesn't occur. The only problem is that it would be very difficult to show that any deal involving Bedard and Phillies prospects was unfair. If in 2-3 years, Marson and Carrasco are Rookie of the Year candidates, and Bedard makes the All-Star Team twice, how would anyone say that the deal was unfair? Even thinking about it now, I'm not sure that I wouldn't take that. However, if Bedard was a total bust, and Carrasco and Marson become great, then it is different. Either way it would be hard to say that trading prospects for a guy that probably wins the Cy Young last season (assuming he doesn't get hurt), would be a bad deal for the Phillies, unless there is good information that Bedard is seriously hurt and won't recover over the next two years.

Who knows?

Burnett: I'm baffled by all the conflicting reports on Burnett. One minute talks are serious. Next minute, the Phils low balled the Jays to the point of insult. The next thing you hear is that Burnett has the Phils on his no-trade clause. The next thing is that it is not specifically known who is on the no-trade clause. I just wonder how much, if any of this information is accurate. I guess the only thing I believe is that the Jays were definitely scouting the Phillies minor league system. It would be pretty hard to fake that.

As if I couldn't despise ESPN anymore, they had the audacity to interview David Wright during Chase's at bat.

They are just trying to drive up their own ratings with controversy for future "Rivalry Weeks." A**holes.

I'm not sure about these Bedard/Burnett rumblings. I take every trade rumor I hear about the Phillies with a grain of salt. It always seems to be purposeful leaks from the FO to make it appear to the public that they are going to do something, when, in fact, they probably plan on doing nothing at all (or something that really is nothing like acquiring a redux like Wolf or Byrd).

The ownership, Montomger, Amaro and MLB are the checks and balances. And who knows, but i'm thinking Gillick is more of a professional than that.

Let's see if I have this straight: Parker think's I'm cookie, CJ thinks I'm Seidman, someone else thinks I'm at the Daily News and most here think I'm Jason.

My thought is this: If they are scouting us, they think a deal is possible...even likely. Otherwise they wouldn't waste time scouting all our prospects. If Burnett has a no-trade clause for Phila, they probably wouldn't be wasting so much effort. The rest is probably just maneueving between the two sides making it appear that they're either not interested or wante more...all the leaks we get seem to be of that type.

I think clout is all of the above...

Checks and balances = Amaro Jr. and Arbuckle.

I know those two have few fans around these parts, but they both would be interested in the GM job next year and most likely Amaro will get that job. So I don't think he would sit quitley by while Gillick trades Carrassco, Marson and Donald for Bedard.

I don't have a whole lot of faith in Amaro, but I do think he is smart enough to not allow Gillick to stock the M's at the Phils expense.

Double H get over it Utley's at bat was not very entertaining

I'd be very curious to see what the posts on Beerleaguer look like if it turns out the deal Gillick pulls off at trade deadline to help the rotation is to sign -- Freddy Garcia!

CJ:

"1. Trade for AJ Burnett using any minor league resources other than Carrasco or Marson."

Lol! Why not just say trade for AJ Burnett -- but don't give up anyone other than Taguchi and Eaton.

But I love your second proposal - Marson for Burnett and Carrasco for Bedard. Now you're talking.

If you're worried about the minor league teams, trade Bedard and Burnett for prospects immediately after the Phils win the WS.

And at the same time, Marson/Carrasco/Donald for Bedard really isn't that crazy of a deal, unless Bedard is seriously injured. Didn't the M's give more than that for him?

Utley did his best work during the introductions.

****And at the same time, Marson/Carrasco/Donald for Bedard really isn't that crazy of a deal, unless Bedard is seriously injured. Didn't the M's give more than that for him? ****

Well yeah they did and that's because the O's bent them over the table royally based off one season's performance. The above deal would really piss me off though.

How do I get davethom's Chris Coste blog alert programmed to my cell phone?

If you were to trade for Burnett without Marson and Carrasco in the deal, what kind of package of prospects would you need? Something like Donald, Golson, Outman, and Naylor?

Replacing Eaton with Garcia = Only in Philadelphia.

Well, two seasons really, one was good, showing promise, the other was great. But, I know what you mean.

The O's laughed off Gillick when he inquired about Bedard last year. Wasn't it Cardenas and Carrasco?

Here's a thought: I like Marson and Carrasco as much as anyone. Definitely 2 of the 3 best prospects. But what are the odds that both will fulfill their potential? In my opinion, not very good. There's risks on both sides of dealing prospects for immediate help. Worth thinking about.

BedBeard: They gave at least the equivalent of that, and maybe more. They gave up Adam "not Pacman" Jones, the O's current closer (his name escapes me), and a stud pitching prospect.

I guess it all depends on how you value Jones, and how that other pitching prospect works out, but at this point, you would have to say that the O's got the better of that deal. However, If Bedard were starting the All-Star Game and the M's were in contention, I think that whole scenario would be cast in a completely different light.

But look at the upside of both risks, clout.

Optimistically, getting Bedard and/or Burnett could (1) ensure the Phils get into the playoffs - very likely, and get them deep into the playoffs - maybe even bring a WS.

The upside of not trading for them will mean (1) good chance of getting to the playoffs but not advancing, (2) two players that might be fairly good pros in a couple of years.

Trade 'em.

flipper: You could replace Eaton with "Sergio" Garcia and you wouldn't hear a peep from me.

If the Phils are on Burnett's no trade list, that's easily taken care of. If the Phils and Jays can agree on a pacakge, then this is what should be done: Burnett is under contract for 2 more yrs. @ a total of 24 mil, Correct? So, if the Phils get him, can't they negotiate an extension with him if he's willing to waive the opt-out clause? That seems logical to me.

The Phils did the right thing with Lidge and if they get anyone, starter, reliever or bat, they must negotiate an extension woth the player if need be to make the trade worthwhile. If they can't do that, there is no sense in making any deal.

Also, there is NO WAY Gillick should be allowed to make ANY deal with the M's involving our top prosects if he's going to be the next M's president. The Phils should get something in writing to protect themselves here. To me, this is a conflict of interest on PG's part. He's knows exactly
what he's gonna do after this year. Retirement is not in his plan I believe.

What if the Mets signed Garcia and he pitched well?

CJ - Yeah the Rockies supposed demands for Fuentes are nuts. Is he a quality left-handed setup man? Sure. There is no way though he is worth an organization's top prospect or top two prospects. If the Rockies can get a legit arm for him and a decent positional player prospect along with along second-tier prospect, they should be more than happy.

Parker: Given how awful Bedard has been, saying the O's got the better of the deal is a no-brainer. But franbkly even if Bedard were a 20-game winner this season, I'd say the O's did better. Jones will be a very solid above-league-average outfielder for the next decade, Tillman is a hard throwing closer with a good curve and the other 2 pitching prospects weren't too shabby either.

I love Met fans telling me what I can complain about on the Phillies board...

Do the Rockies seriously think they can get an organization's top 2 prospects for a set-up guy who lost his closer's job within the last year or so?

I would hold on to Marson b/c the phils catching is poor right now and it looks like his type of bat is the kind the Phils need.

However, if we're talking about a good starting pitcher in return, i'd be willing to discuss Carrasco. Trying to make a deal w/out him is a good move by the Phils, but to not make a good deal b/c of what he could be scares me.

I don't know much about Bedard, but we have definitely seen cases of seemingly unmotivated players, all of a sudden really motivated when playing for a contending team in all sports.

I don't know anything about his injuries or past injuries though.

All the articles I've read on this ownership group (Middleton aside) state that they are extremely risk-avoidant, which is fine for a Mom & Pop operation, but probably--scratch that, definitely-- not the best outlook to have when you are running a professional sports franchise.

It's all risks and odds with sports. Signing Brad Lidge to a 3-year deal didn't seem like a big risk to me. It seemed to be a no-brainer. I'd like to see them finally take a risk and take advantage of a weak NL while it's still possible.

I think the report was the Ownership was willing to take on a "big contract". I guess that contract would have to expire this year(per the interest in CC and getting Burnett to get rid of the other 2 years)

Marson's main selling point is his offense. I'd say that catcher is the position where the importance of offensive skills, vs. defensive skills, ranks lowest.

Trade him.

Good offensive catchers don't come around that often.

Keep him.

BobbyD wrote: "What if the Mets signed Garcia and he pitched well?"

I have the answer: Gillick signs him and he won't pitch well!

I'm imagine this has been shared before, but what are the reports on Marson's defense? I'm inclined to keep him as it seems we need a new starter, but I'd be less inclined to keep him if he's just another Johnny Estrada.

Average defensively, but he's only been a full time catcher for 3 years or so. That part of his game needs some tightening. I wouldn't write him off as a "offense only" guy yet.

I don't know about keeping Marson. On one hand, I think his upside is probably a .750 OPS guy in the majors, which is solid but not great. His downside could be never making it.

On the other hand, if we trade for Bedard or Burnett, that salary most likely will not just be absorbed. Especially if they are given an extention, it would probably confirm that Burrell is leaving, unless some other high-salary player (Myers, Howard) gets traded.

If the Gillick rumors prove to be true after this season and the Phillies work out a deal with Seattle before the deadline, MLB should step in and 'award' the Phillies the player with no compensation. I know that it would be unprecedented, but Bedard might be damaged goods for all we know, and MLB being so cautious with cheating these days, who knows? Gillick has no reason to make a deal in the Phillies best interest if he is planning a move back to Seattle. Ship him and his Hawaiian shirt collection off to the Left Coast and be done with him.

If that's accurate then I'm on the "keep him" side.

I think having his current team win the WS is in fact, in Gillick's "best interest".

When it comes to Bedard.. first you have to decide how good you think he is and how can you think he can be here. If you decide that he will be a legitimate 2 or 3 starter for the Phillies this year and in the future, then you trade Carrasco for him if that's what it takes to get it done. I don't give a damn about what Carrasco may or may not do in a year or two.

Does anyone really want Bedard or Burnett? Im all about winning a championship this year, but seriously, do we want those guys? Am i supposed to feel good when we trot out Bedard to face Sheets, Sabathia, Harden, or Zambrano? I would have dealth the prospects for a shot at Harden or Sabthia, but come on, AJ Burnett? The guy has an ERA in the 5's! Thats ADAM EATON territory. I realize he is the the AL, but still, thats pitiful. Bottom line is unless the hitting gets hot in the playoffs, the phillies are not a world series team. They also aren't a world series team with Bedard or Burnett or both. The cubs and brewers pitching is way too good for us to try to out-pitch them in a series. I think they should hold onto their prospects, hope the hitting gets hot in october and if it doesn't then we still have a good farm system to build on. I hate the idea of giving up alot for NOT GOOD pitchers like Burnett or Bedard so we can still lose to the cubbies anyway. Just doesn't make alot of sense.

Seth Schaffer from MLB.com was just on the radio and he says the Phils are the #1 player for Burnett right now. He says the Phils want the Blue Jays to pick up between $8 million and $12 million of the $24 million Burnett will be due if he decides NOT to opt out.

Jack G: That's the big question. Who is the real Bedard? This year or last year? Good guy or bad guy? In the offseason almost everyone wanted Bedard.

I don't think that the Phillies will make a trade for Bedard because of these tampering issues. If the Phillies do make a trade with Seattle, it will probably be for Arthur Rhodes (hey, he's actually having a good year and he is a lefty reliever who could be had cheaply) and/or Jarrod Washburn, not for Bedard.

But what if Gillick is tampering the other way around? Let's say that he manages to convince Seattle to take Golson and a bunch of mid to low level prospects for Bedard because he thinks they have a high upside. Gillick then says that he will most likely get involved with Seattle starting next year as a top executive in their organization to gain their confidence that he is trying to help his current team win and help the team he will work with in the future (Seattle). Then next year Gillick could just stay retired and Seattle would be stuck with crappy prospects after they have given away top prospects to get Bedard and Bedard himself!

That said, I doubt that Gillick is tampering in any way, but I don't think anybody here would complain if he was using his Seattle connections to help the Phillies in an unfair way.

Also, would Seattle want a catcher? They just signed Jojhima to a big 3 yr extension. Sure he isn't having a good year but they put a lot of money into him. Plus they have a top catching prospect in Jeff Clement who is more MLB ready than Marson. Clement has already seen MLB time as a catcher and as a DH. I think that Seattle would be more interested in pitching (every team is) and power hitting corner outfielders/infielders.

Jack G is right.

We should give up now. Why bother trying to improve our team when there is NO WAY IN THE WORLD we can compete with the Cubs or the Brewers.

I think we should trade away our top players for prospects that will be ready to win in about 6 or 7 years when all the other good pitchers in baseball will be washed up.

Man the Brewers are the '27 Yankees now. Forget the Mets, the Brew Crew is coming!!!

Jack G: Bedard would be our #2 or #3 here (in the theory that we'd split our lefties) with Cole as the undisputed #1. With that line of thinking our rotation might look like this: Hamels, Myers, Bedard, Kendrick, Moyer. That'd be pretty strong in my book. Seattle is a bad situation right now. They spent a slew of money and the team is a sinking ship with all sorts of finger pointing and scapegoating. Bedard sounded okay to me during his interview with Mike Miss.

As for tampering, this is getting almost comical. We're talking tampering on the basis of hypothetical third party gossip? Really? If one wants to engage in wild speculation on this matter, I still think the theory that Arbuckle and Amaro are fanning these flames in order to maintain prospect inventory for their turn as GM to be just as compelling.

MPN: Big assumption that Brett Myers will be a #2 starter when he returns. I'm not quite sold on that... although I'm hopeful.

Jack G - No one would be talking about Burnett if his only value came from his performance this year or if his ceiling were a 5+ ERA.

Burnett's been an above average SP for 8 years. Before this year, he had 4 straight years of 110+ ERA+ pitching with an ERA under 4 in each. He struck out 198 batters in 2005 and 176 last year.

Let us pray that the Freddy Garcia rumor is just unfounded speculation

CJ: Fair enough and true. I almost put Kendrick/Myers in the #2 and #5 spots. I too hope that he can return to some semblance of league averageness with occasional bouts of pitching brilliance.

I'd imagine the Mets are looking at Freddy Garcia for Pedro Martinez insurance and nothing else.

the mets have el duque for pedro martinez insurance

Well then the mets are probably looking at Garcia as insurance for their Pedro insurance.

"the mets have el duque for pedro martinez insurance"

That's one of the funniest things I've read in a long time.

That's like saying my backup plan for this '77 Ford pickup is my '76 Ford pickup.

That's like saying if my Apple IIG breaks down, I've still got my Commodore 64.

That's like saying that if Gordon breaks down, we can acquire Arthur Rhodes as a backup.

Arthur Rhodes replaces Tom Gordon = only in Philadelphia.

I think the Phillies will get neither Burnett nor Bedard. Both have been injury plagued and represent a lot of risk. Someone just used the term risk averse. That describes the Phils to a tee. I love Burnett's arm, but if by some miracle he did become a Phillie, I bet his arm would fall off upon arrival at CBP. More likely we end up with something in the Randy Wolf, Paul Byrd category. Hell maybe we can coax Terry Mulholland out of retirement while we're talking about Phillies retreads. Freddy Garcia? I just threw up in my mouth.

Jose Reyes: "That's like saying if we trade Allen Iverson, we still got Chris Weber."

Huh?

Click on this link: Funny.

Ah, I see summer school is out for the day. The Mets trolls have returned. They'll be here until Mom makes them turn off the computer for dinner.

Tatis - You did. It was a very nice performance by the Mets. Reminded me of the mid-year series last year when the Mets took 3 of 4 from the Phillies at CBP.

You remember 2007, right? The collapse & whatnot? The Phillies really sh*t on you guys huh?

Phillies fans, let's be honest. Your team is going down. You guys caught us last year, but then just did a major first-round let down. This year, we have Johan and a new Pelfrey (who has a better ERA than 4/5 of your starting rotation). Delgado is coming around, Wright and Reyes are awesome, and our bullpen is filthy.

Just give up guys.

The definition of "sh*t on" is described as "what Pat Burrell does to the Mets"

or "What The Rat will end up doing to the Mets playoff hopes"

A Paul Holmgren style fleecing is what we need (to pull on someone else).

Churchill: You're right. I, for one, surrender*.


*I don't really surrender. The Mets bullpen is anchored by a guy who doesn't do well in big spots, and Carlos Delgado is not "coming around." And Jose Reyes needs to tuck his shirt in and Christ, would it be possible for Oliver Perez to button his?

Wow! Muts fans have as little class as their team. Whoda thunkit?

Re: Pedro+Duque

That's like saying my backup plan for this '77 Ford pickup is my '76 Ford pickup.


Hm, more like saying, 'my backup plan for this '80 Porsche is my '93 Hyundai.'

That's like saying my backup for Beerleaguer is ESPN!

Oops! My bad. I forgot, ESPN rarely covers the Phillies!

Come on guys i dont think you can compare the back up for Pedro being El Duque any other way... simply stated, that truely is the worst way to express it..

Allow me to disagree with doubleh who said the Phils off-season decision to acquire Lidge was a "no-brainer" not fraught with risk. In fact, it was very risky. Risky because Lidge had been bad for two full seasons (Bedard and Burnett have been bad for only half a season). And risky because Lidge only had a year left on his contract.

Clout: Quick correction- Tillman is a starting pitching prospect (and a damn good one). I think you meant that Sherrill was the closer the Orioles got for Bedard.

Sadly, I think this trading deadline is going to be a repeat of the past two years - the Phils are going to be linked to some big names but will ultimately be reduced to second-tier players again.

I do think the Phils are going to get another starter and maybe even a lefty arm for the bullpen too. I just don't think it will be a Burnett/Bedard for the rotation or a Fuentes for the pen either.

clout: Actually, she said signing him to a 3-year deal was a no-brainer. At this point, I'd say it was pretty close to a no-brainer. He's been as good as good can be.

Trading for him, on the other hand, was very risky. It was a risk that paid off.

As crazy as it might seem, it also wouldn't totally surprise me if Gillick trades for an outfield bat if the right opportunity comes along.

Jenkins has basically struggled for all season except for a 3-week stretch and Taguchi hasn't even been "so-so" (bad pun but I had to do it). Plus, Snelling hasn't been able to say healthy enough to consider as a potential contributor to the big league club.

Fans are fans but I can't belive one measly 2-week stretch of good ball in 3 months is enough to get Mets fans excited.

They're not fans. They're morons.

Jack: Correct. Sherrill, not Tillman.

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