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Tuesday, July 29, 2008

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I'd hope that wouldn't be it, but that would be a great trade.

I would look at a Mahay/Donald trade as a typical Deadline deal.

A contending team overpays for a reliever but gains in the shortterm. Donald would be an everyday player for the Royals by the end of the season and almost definitely by next year. We'd get a good return in 2 years of a decent lefty out of the pen but 5 years from now we'd be saying "Man I wish we still had Donald...he's a decent SS/2B."

The high IP does concern me though. 37 year olds aren't known to hold up well when they are overused.

Giving up Donald wouldn't bother me. The Phils need to win now. But I don't know how many wins Mahay adds.

I hear that this is a done deal. If so, its a great pickup. Hope it didn't cost Happ.

PhilR: Actually, Jayson Stark is now reporting it's "not close." The only place where I've heard it described as a "done deal" is over in the Metsblog comments. Where did you hear it was a done deal?

Ok... so the imperative obvious statement. With Happ this means three lefties in the pen. Are we likely to see a Happ - Myers switch fairly soon?

A friend im'd me. He may have gotten it off of Metsblog though.

What do you bros think we need to give up for Teixera? His AVG and OBP are better as a 3B than as a 1B.

We could send some minor league dudes for him and then have a switch-hitter at 3B instead of Pedro Puhlease hitting -.500 against righties.

Maybe even Puhlease + some dudes for Teixera.

So... if other teams are willing to pay a higher price for Mahay, does that mean we're being unreasonable if we, as Beerleaguer members, suggest Donald is too much to give up for him?

From Ken Rosenthal: "The interest in Mahay has intensified, and other teams are willing to pay a greater price than the Phillies. The Rockies, at least for the moment, are not discussing deals involving closer Brian Fuentes. The Orioles so far have been unsuccessful in their quest to acquire a young shortstop for closer George Sherrill."


So other teams have stepped into it...teams that can easily outbid the Phillies.

"A friend im'd me." This is worthy of a new thread!

CJ: Yes

Frankie: Teixeira hasn't played third since 2003 and was AWFUL (worse than Helms on his worst day). He'll never play third base again.

Deutsche- Mahay's splits indicate he is pretty damn good against lefties too. He will be one of our better relievers regardless of LH/RH.

Is giving up Donald that big of a loss to the Phils? The addition of another left-hander like Mahay will hopefully grant us another October, which should convince the FO that spending money on talent instead of bums like Eaton is a good idea.

mlb trade rumors says they are not close, take that for what it is worth. stark was the original start of the rumor it seems

Rosenthal says the Phils inquired about Maddux before dealing for Blanton. That's the first I've heard that.

world series, here we come! at the outset of the season i thought we were one piece away and the one name i have been focused on is tim mahay! having followed his career closely, i can say that mahay brings the winning attitude and spirit that this team sorely lacks. he is the missing piece. neither a top-flight starter nor a matt holliday-type player can provide this team with what mahay brings to the table.

is it too early to start camping out on broad street?

****Is giving up Donald that big of a loss to the Phils? ****

No, its not a loss at all this season. It would begin to hurt us next year and in 2010 when he would have somewhere to play everyday.

****is it too early to start camping out on broad street?****

The parade for the Philadelphia Soul would probably get in your way...;)

Though from what I understand it isn't going down Broad street (which apparently reserved for real championships.) I've never understood how they call Philly a city of losing when we've had so many Wings, Phantoms, and now the Soul championships...

Nutbag: RON Mahay. According to Google, Tim Mahay runs a class operation riverboat service. Though I must admit, in the grand scheme, the acquisition of either might represent similar likelihoods of reaching the WS.

All in all I still remain cautiously optimistic. A John Maine injury paints a little bit of a different picture in the East.

NEPhan, was Donald going to be our answer to third base? Or are you talking about a post-Rollins future?

****A John Maine injury paints a little bit of a different picture in the East.****

How seriously is he injured though? I thought it was just a minor injury.

On another note: Was Ed Wade this stupid when he was our GM? He's still thinks the Astros are in Buy mode and has been rebuffing all offers for Tejada. Considering what he could probably get for him in the trade market from the BoSox, I find this ludicrous. Something like Masterson, Lowrie plus another prospect would be entirely reasonble but instead Easy Eddy Wade is trying to acquire bullpen help. What the heck is he smoking? Everytime I read anything about him I keep having horrible flashbacks to the Schilling and Rolen trades...

****NEPhan, was Donald going to be our answer to third base? Or are you talking about a post-Rollins future?****

There have been some discussions about Donald's ability to play 3B after Feliz is gone. Supposedly he has the arm for it even if his range isn't the best (though Feliz isn't known for his range either). There is also the possibliity of him taking over 2B if and when Howard departs via trade/free agency and Uts has to take over 1B for him.

I know you are being facetious but I think a guy like Mahay would have a major impact. Lets face it, our rotation 3-5 is not going deep too often. If we can actually rely on our BP for 3-4 quality innings a game, then a weak rotation doesn't matter so much.

A bunch of Mahay's and a Lidge can make almost any pitching staff a playoff contender.

Sound the trumpets a deadline deal featuring a young prospect for a lefty reliever! It's like Phils GMs look at a sheet for how to do the job:

1. Draft athletic HS player with 1st Rd.
2. Don't hype prospects, in fact, bash them.
3. Be aggressive during Rule V draft.
4. At the trade deadline, add lefty reliever.

I would do this deal. I'd part with Donald before Marson and Carrasco. Hopefully it gets done.

Donald is 23. He's not "young."

Donald may not be "young," and Mahay certainly isn't. But it does seem to be a worthwhile trade for both sides.

The Phils should have just signed Mahay this offseason, as many BeerLeaguers including me suggested. Mahay for Donald does seem fair though, considering Mahay's contract for next season.

Donald has the highest OPS of any prospect in our system.

He's not "old".

Is it just me or does it feel like we are chipping away at our farm system little by little to bring in average players (i.e. Blanton, Mahay, Grabow, etc.)?

Instead, we could've offered 1 or 2 prospects from the Blanton deal + Donald + Marson OR Carrasco OR Happ to get a star like Sabbathia.

Doesn't make sense what we are doing. Mahay and Blanton are not difference makers. Sabbathia is.

Brewers are interested in Arfur Rhodes. C'mon, Gillick, get off your duff and grab him.

Joe- I doubt with the current GM and front office that the Phils will ever be the team trading for a difference maker at the trade deadline. Sure we'll trade away difference makers (Schilling, Rolen, Abreu), but Lohse and Moyer as about as big-time as you'll see Patty G go.

Meh. I'll take what our relatively weak farm system can get us.

Joe:

1) The Phils offered more players to the Indians than the Brewers did, but have no one in their system as good as LaPorta.
2) The Indians were clear that they wanted a position prospect at the center of the deal. I doubt Cardenas or Donald... or even Marson would have made a difference.

Joe-
The problem with parting with the prospects for Sabbathia is that we'd be giving up those prospects for a 2-month rental.
The FO would never pay what it takes to keep him here.

Donald-for-Mahay works for me.

If the A's are willing to trade Duchscherer, why didn't the Phils go after him instead of Blanton?

"The problem with parting with the prospects for Sabbathia is that we'd be giving up those prospects for a 2-month rental."

that's very true and something to consider heavily, but Sabbathia has proven to be a "difference maker". Do you want to win or is being 2nd rate still good enough?

Alex:

1) It's not clear that Duchscherer is actually on the table right now... although with Beane, he'll always listen.
2) It's not clear what kind of value Duchscherer actually has. This is his first year as a starter after 4 seasons as a reliever. Obviously he's been great this year, but you'd be buying high if you dealt for him. His value may never be higher.

at this point, i would take a 2 month rental like Sabbathia to try and win the World Series RIGHT NOW, rather than have guys like Blanton and Mahay for the next 2 or 3 seasons....

to me, that is a no-brainer.

Sabathia is a no brainer. The Phils just didn't have a prospect like LaPorta to get it done.

Alex: With you on that. Just don't fully get the "I wouldn't do that deal" opinion.

I 1 million percent agree! But this ownership is so worried about keeping OUR money we spend in their pockets. They have no guts to "waste" money on a rental

you have it all wrong, guys. sports, like economics, is all about the margins. if you can improve along the margins by adding lots of mediocre players (loshe last year, blanton & possibly more this year), that will be your ticket into the post season. if you were paying attention to the world of sports you will see that this strategy has paid off for the new york knicks. they loaded up on lots of mediocre, marginal talent but now its starting to pay dividends. just yesterday they traded renaldo balkman for taurean green, bobby jones (not the former 76er bobby jones) and draft picks. the strategy worked. the knicks are now in the clear. its almost like you guys don't know how sports works. an ace like sabathia will never lead a team deep into the post season. sometimes the best move to make is not to make a move at all.

I understand the desire for Sabathia, but it's different for fans and management. While the fans want success ASAP, management needs to plan ahead.

Emptying the cupboard for a guy like Sabathia is an incredibly risky move. Yeah he's a great pitcher, but the playoffs are too much of a crapshoot to mortgage your future on. If you win a WS, great. It was worth it. But if you don't (which is much more likely)? Your ace leaves via FA, and you have no farm system. You get two draft picks, but that's not a lot.

The knicks???? You try to persuade us your right by using the knicks? They are still stuck deep in cap trouble and are going to STINK for the next 3 years at least. And just to let you know the Brewers as of now can beat us in a 5 or 7 game series because their Top 3 Starters for series CC, Sheets and whomever they deceide to use as 3rd is WAY better than our Hamels, Moyer, Blanton combo

No, no, no, I wouldn't like this one.

Ron Mahay has had a very good first half. His age combined with his workload to date are enough to worry me. His numbers show a few flags as well.

He would have the lowest ground ball rate and highest line drive rate in the Phillies bullpen, and highest fly ball rate of anyone not named Tom Gordon. To his credit he has kept the ball in the park, but I'm afraid that wouldn't translate from KC to CBP.

He has allowed 36% of inherited runners to score, slightly more than next highest on the Phillies, from Madson.

He has enjoyed a .273 BABIP against, which is low for a slightly below-average Royals defense.

I really like Donald, and my opinion is that if he's blocked on the Phillies, they should give it a year until he's a ready-now prospect and get more in return. I know it's no sure thing, but the trend is certainly up with him.

Me thinks Poster Nutbag is being sarcastic.

"Sometimes the best move to make is not to make a move at all. "

Perhaps best evidenced by the 2008 Boston Celtics.

Casey: He's 23 and playing in Double-A, and having a great year. He's a ready-now prospect whose value is probably at its highest.

"Sometimes the best move to make is not to make a move at all.

Perhaps best evidenced by the 2008 Boston Celtics."

They made their big moves in the offseason.

Of course... just a concise comment on the overly-general comments that championships come through marginal moves.

How does this sound for a deal? Trade Donald for the lefty from KC, then try to swing a deal for Dontrelle Willis, who by the way is Jimmy's good friend from home and maybe that will get him straight and a change of scenery will help Dontrelle. Then move Myers to set up man and Happ to the bull pen.

Now all of a sudden our starting rotation is Hamels, Moyer, Willis, Blanton, Kendrick

I understand the desire for Sabathia, but it's different for fans and management. "While the fans want success ASAP, management needs to plan ahead.Emptying the cupboard for a guy like Sabathia is an incredibly risky move. Yeah he's a great pitcher, but the playoffs are too much of a crapshoot to mortgage your future on. If you win a WS, great. It was worth it. But if you don't (which is much more likely)? Your ace leaves via FA, and you have no farm system. You get two draft picks, but that's not a lot.
"

Well reasoned post. The thing is, you have to consider who is the team thinking of making the move. Will you be competitive w/out making the big trade, competitive next year, how's your farm system, your opponents' /system?

The Phils' current window will not be open that long. Especially, considering the Mets new stadium/$ coming in with their TV deal and the Marlins young and poised to be in the mix for years, the Braves having money to turn it around and of course, the rest of the top NL teams making big moves. To keep nipping around the edges by adding small parts won't do much.

This isn't going to get it done...we fiddle while the Mets and Brewers get set to make deals...the Mets get Church back in 2 weeks and he's going to make a huge difference.

****Trade Donald for the lefty from KC, then try to swing a deal for Dontrelle Willis,****

Starts puking repeatedly...please feel free to check out DTrain's splits the last few years even before he fell off the face of the earth in Detroit. Their locking him up makes our Eaton contract look like genius.

Kerr: That's wishful thinking about Church. It's certainly possible, but I have my doubts that he'll be a big contributor for the rest of the regular season and possible post season. We all thought he was fine a few weeks ago and then he had to stop playing again.

If he stays healthy, that's the big deadline acquisition the Mets needed. If he doesn't, they're in trouble. Tatis may hold his own in LF, but Endy Chavez should not be starting in anyone's major league outfield.

Celtics also added 2 stars.

no, no, no. the boston celtics are not the model you want to look at for winning a championship. you want to emulate the dallas mavericks' and the phoenix suns' of the world. see what happened when phoenix got shaq? no ring. dallas mavericks and jason kidd? no ring.

I see his stats, but he didn't want to be in Detroit because he was in the back end of that rotation and here he will have a comfort level with Rollins, thats my whole point. Eaton was a bust a mile away, Willis is at least worth a shot and at a cheap price

mvptommyd: Is this statement supposed to get people excited?
"Now all of a sudden our starting rotation is Hamels, Moyer, Willis, Blanton, Kendrick"

No to Dontrelle.

Compare to current rotation of Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Kendrick dont you think it's an upgrade?

Pete Happy to the DL. Discuss.

Dontrelle's numbers weren't atrocious because he was mad about being a back-end started.

His numbers sucked because he's just not that good anymore. He had one great year, and has gotten worse... much worse... every year since.

DID Feliz get put on the DL? I can't confirm that info anywhere. Or is that just your wishful thinking?

On Willis:

Having the Fish throw him into the M. Cabrera deal=Good Idea

Locking him up before he even pitched in Spring Training=BAD IDEA!!!

that one year was one hell of a year . . . just shows you how thin that line is between dominance and incompetence

according to the illustrious Allentown Morning Call, he was placed on the DL today. Cervanek called up.

Yea I agree, he had only one or two good seasons because he doesn't know how to pitch. He tried to blow his fastball by everyone and aftere one or two seasons the batters pitched up how to hit it. If we got him Moyer could teach him how to pitch using all of his pitches. Kind of like what Moyer is doing to Kendrick. Kendrick is a kid with average stuff, but Moyer is teaching him how to be effective. If you don't believe me look at Kendrick's last starts.

Cervarnek="some dude"

Just realized Nationals have worst record in MLB. Anything less than a sweep here would be disappointing...

Kind of sucks Donald is in China. With Pedro on the DL, it would have been nice to give him a look for few games. Although I'm not sure he's played 3B at all this year so I'm not sure you'd want his first games there to be in the majors.

Anyway, Feliz on the DL doesn't exactly mean the sky is falling. Split some starts between Dobbs and Bruntlett and Pedro probably won't miss more than 10 games or so if this is retroactive. I doubt Cervanek plays a role any more important than So Taguchi's.

Cervenak=Organizational filler who's been great against lefties this year with the IronPigs.

I assume this means that Bruntlett/Dobbs will be our everyday 3B?

this deal isn't terrible. hopefully it would put Happ in a starters position with 2 lefties left in the pen. I'd much rather trade donald the marson or a pitching prospect. My biggest concern with the deadline coming up is that we are going to f ourselves by selling out our young pitching. KK gave me faith in our young pitchers last year and I think Happ can do some reassurance(is that a word?) this year if he gets a shot in the rotation.

We all know we arn't ever gonna get a pitcher like CC cause we have a tight grip on our wallets so lets have some faith in our youth and make the reasonable additions where we can

cue the posters complaining that Feliz wasn't DL'd sooner so theycould have pulled Donald back from the Olympic team to sit and do nothing for 3 weeks, instead of participating in one of the world's oldest traditions.

Mike C.: I don't know if that was directed at me, but that's not what I they think they should have done even if Feliz was DL'd two weeks ago.

Donald earned a spot on that team and deserves the honor of playing in Beijing. He probably would only start a couple games with Dobbs and Bruntlett capable of playing 3rd.

I'm just saying that a month from now if Feliz went on the DL, he'd be the guy I'd call up (not Cervenak).

Either way, it's not going to make or break the season.

If the Phils were serious about Donald getting anything more than a Sept callup, they would have let him play at least few games at 3rd at Reading.

Man, Feliz should have been DL'd sooner so they could have pulled Donald back from the Olympic team to sit and do nothing for 3 weeks, instead of participating in one of the world's oldest traditions.

mike c: One of the world's oldest traditions? What would that be, playing a baseball game that no one really cares about in a commie country? If that's so important we should just send all of our prospects to Cuba.

I hardly count olympic baseball as one "the world's oldest traditions"

Randy Miller was a guest host on WIP today with Glen, and I always thought he lent a lot of credibility until today. When discussing Donald, he said that he's really not that great of a prospect and can't play SS and he's blocked at 2B. That part is fine, but when he said that 19 year old Freddie Galvis is the best SS prospect in our system (also fine), and that scouts inside and outside the organization say he is as good a fielding SS as Omar Vizquel (who probably will be on the HOF), he lost me.

I was listening to Miller too and almost spit out my coffee when he said scouts compared Galvis to Reyes and Rollins.

The Doctor,

They say Galvis is THAT good of a fielder.

I could care less about the Olympics. If one of those guys gets hurt over there, i'd be disappointed.

If the world's oldest traditions date back to 1988, then Olympic baseball qualifies. 1984, if you count demonstration sports.

But seriously, I'm sure it's a good break from the monotony that can be minor league bus trips and it's a pretty sweet trip. Better than spending a weekend in Altoona, at least. It would have been a d*ck move for the Phils to pull him off the squad to ride the pine at the Bank for 2 weeks.

In fact, wasn't there a report on Philly.com about how Phils scouts think that if they needed a DEFENSIVE SS, they'd call him up right now. Although, he'd be completely overmatched at the plate.

If the world's oldest traditions date back to 1988, then Olympic baseball qualifies. 1984, if you count demonstration sports.

But seriously, I'm sure it's a good break from the monotony that can be minor league bus trips and it's a pretty sweet trip. Better than spending a weekend in Altoona, at least. It would have been a d*ck move for the Phils to pull him off the squad to ride the pine at the Bank for 2 weeks.

The Doctor: I agree with you, I think Randy Miller said a bunch of things that was off in credibility today and that being the biggest point of his. I was with him when he said he is on the same level as rollins and reyes but when he compared him to Omar I lost him as well.

His dream is to be in the majors, not Bejing.

BedBeard: He's going to do both.

True. I guess i'm just speaking for the way I feel. I'd want to be on the bench, now, but whatever.

Prostitution is the world's oldest tradition.

I'd like to see Cervenak get a couple starts at 3rd just to see if you can do something worth something.

Bed Beard- according to Conlin we've also got the second coming of Scott Rolen and Daryl Strawberry down on the farm, so I don't know what the hell everyone is so down on our minor leaguers for.

Oh I think Conlin's is getting a little loopy again. Hurry get the meds!

St. Louis- baseball haven or baseball PED zone?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3509546

zomg must be Tatis

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