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Saturday, July 12, 2008

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Good report by Zonca, well worth reading. Down at the bottom he notes that Gillick, Arbuckle and Green were in attendance. I'd say the odds are strong Myers will return after the break. The focus has shifted to Eaton today.

No question here. Assuming a competent FO, Eaton earned his spot out tonight and Happ comes in. I can't afford to have Randy Johnson (the hitter) dominate a member of my starting five.

Didn't see the new thread posted. Repost:

THe Dude with a reasonable post, though I doubt we can fall into any full time options, especially with the recently signed Feliz and Jenkins blocking the way. Here's hoping--we desperately need production from RF and 3B considering what we're lacking from SS and CF compared to 2007.

I'd add enhancing the bullpen to the fallback wishlist. Gordon and Seanez are finished and won't make it through the year. I can't believe we have to buy Gordon out for next year, but it's getting tough to see a reason not to do it prematurely.

It's sad that we're looking to bring Myers back not because he's wowing us with his rehab but because Eaton's become so intolerable that even a burnout looks good. Note that no matter what kind of spin you put on this report, Myers struggles in the early innings, even against AAA opponents. I'm not excited.

Anyone see that according to MLBtraderumors.com that Burnett has a no-trade to 15 teams and the Phillies are on that list? Here's where the ballpark hurts you, maybe even more so than with free agents.

I also find it sad that, after the dust settled, our once prospective "ace" turned in a career that could be at best described as average. At this point, I think he'll become some other team's Tom Gordon--the 2005 version--and with the same life expectancy from that point, meaning I think he'll be out of the majors before his mid-30s.

id rather have condrey every fifth day than eaton or myers.

Whelk: Just a small correction, AA opponents.

But with a guy like Myers you need him to think that he is awesome. Hopefully, this will be an example of mind over matter.

"We fixed it, all better now!"

Which is an easier match up for him - Florida or New York? I guess the Mets, in the sense that they don't hit the HR as much as the Fish. I can never gather stats to prove a point. But I do remember Myers got hurt (physically, not mentally) last year playing Florida.

BENTZ: Is that true? Are the Phillies on his no trade clause? If so that ticks me off. I think that should be something that should be excluded as an option on a contract. No player should be able to refuse to go to another team. I can see maybe a time restriction on being traded for a period of the life of the contract, but to completely exclude certain teams. I don't know, maybe it is fair. Maybe I'm just ticked off that no decent pitcher will ever sign with this team, and now they can't even get decent pitchers through trades, unless they are rookies/haven't signed a deal (BTW: no team is actually trading any of those guys). Ugh!!! I hate the Bank (at least when it comes to getting pitchers).

BENTZ: Is that true? Are the Phillies on his no trade clause? If so that ticks me off. I think that should be something that should be excluded as an option on a contract. No player should be able to refuse to go to another team. I can see maybe a time restriction on being traded for a period of the life of the contract, but to completely exclude certain teams. I don't know, maybe it is fair. Maybe I'm just ticked off that no decent pitcher will ever sign with this team, and now they can't even get decent pitchers through trades, unless they are rookies/haven't signed a deal (BTW: no team is actually trading any of those guys). Ugh!!! I hate the Bank (at least when it comes to getting pitchers).

Man, I thought I took every precaution to avoid the double post there. I guess there truly is no precaution that can be taken. Sorry.

BENTZ: if the ownership is smart, they'll start pushing the data that our ballpark's pitching disadvantage either does not exist or is at least totally overblown. A pitcher's HR totals will rise, but his ERA will remain flat.

Sorry, jhart, they're so similar these days I get them confused. But you're right: Myers is even more underwhelming than what I conveyed.

Fish now leading, greeaaat!

Wow he did well against a AA lineup...this is our Opening Day starter...sorry but that is pathetic...almost as pathetic as Eaton was today.

On Myers: Bash me later

I generally have a lot of problems with Myers. That being said, if Myers comes back from this and is Ace (B) as opposed to Ace (H)amels, then I'll be thrilled.

It is a long way from that happening at this point, but I think that it is possible. I think that if Myers commits himself to it, he will be good. He could be really good if he is mentally there. I like Brett's competitiveness. The guy is a bulldog out there. His problem has been confidence due to lack of commitment to his task. If he is finally committed to being a starter, he could be anywhere from average, to dominant.

I'm going to make a bold prediction that Myers comes back and is dominant, and wins over the fans again, for the first time, again. Myers has a chance to be a bad boy hero if he comes in and helps battle the Mets and Fish for the division. I think, he's gonna do it. *****
*****I still want Burnett if the FO somehow can convince him to waive his no trade clause.

Let's face it, Myers will be back after the break, so we have to hope for the best. hell, I drafted myers on 2 of my teams because I thought he could be above average. Hopefully he's been humbled and in October this will be part of the drama looked back on. Fact of the matter, I would take Brett Myers over Adam Eaton any day of the week. Even further, I would take Happ over Eaton any day of the week. If you have any respect for your fan-base, get rid of eaton...at the very least DL him and move on. There is no better time than now to admit that we are in first place by a thread and look like the 3rd best team in the NL East for the last week. If eaton is on this team after this break, fans should not show up for the 1st home game after the break.

Pissed about being one of the 15 teams for Burnett NOT to go to. F him and f his marlin heritage. If they are going to get someone, it is Bedard because it seems like Bedard wants to be a Phil. How bout a L, L, L, R, L staff?

Roll the dice on Bedard IF you are going to do something.*

* at ther very least, make eaton go away

Happ should be added to the 25 man roster the day after the All Star game. Eaton has reverted back to last year's ineptitude, so if this FO doesn't send him down to AA, AAA or the DL, they will show us that all they care about is packing the stadium and running to the bank with our money. Keeping Eaton proves that winning is not important but that the salary they are paying him has to be justified by his remaining with the club and pitching every 5'th day, which is an absolute L every time he is on the mound. How can they justify keeping him with the parent club? This is why the cheapness of the Phillies makes me ill.

MLB Trade-rumors:

They say that Burnett's, no trade list only includes a "handful"of teams, and the Phillies may or may not be on it. There is no certainty there. So there is still breathing room.

All one has to know is Myers gave up a HR on the first pitch of the game.

Sweet quote by Randy Johnson should not go unnoticed:

"Watching me hit and run is like watching Manute Bol shoot a three pointer, I guess. It just isn't a pleasant sight."

New metric: wins over average?

If this already exists, I've never heard it brought up.

After making the statement that Myers' career was average at best, I started moving his data around to see how that was true from various angles. I was preparing to counter the notion that he was above average by definition because of his .535 win record. Calculating the figure over 162 games projects an 85 win season, which is pretty much what the team has delivered during his tenure.

Thus, if you wanted to measure a pitcher's performance by how many games he wins but wanted to at least partially neutralize the effect of offense, you could create a Wins Over Average stat calculated by (pitcher_win% / team_win%). On a team heavy in offense, this would also neutralize the effect of "unnecessarily" good pitching, e.g. having a 2.x ERA pitcher on a team that routinely scores 5+ runs since, in that scenario, you could theoretically expect similar results from 3.x and 4.x ERA pitching.

For 2008, Wins Over Average
by MLB record, by games started

Myers: 0.466, 0.438
Hamels: 1.118, 1.176
Moyer: 1.064, 1.078
Kendrick: 1.355, 1.373
Eaton: 0.559, 0.828
Happ: 0.000, 1.863

Analysis:

This stat actually makes Myers and Eaton look a bit better than some others, but, at the same time, shows how totally horrendous Myers has been. 0.438 "wins over average" in games Myers starts means we're essentially forfeiting by putting him out there.

The figures on Hamels and Moyer are about what one suspects, but, whoa, check out Kendrick. While the objective is to neutralize run support, in Kendrick's case, we may be illustrating it.

It'd be interested to run this calculation through some successful pitchers' careers and see what figures arise. There are complications such as injuries, trades, partial seasons, etc. which I am not prepared to deal with, but, with this small sample set, it seems a decent illustration of where our wins are coming from (and where they aren't). Done right, this could be a sort of BABIP for pitchers' win records.

Um, in my final paragraph I meant to say either "I'd be interested" or "It'd be interesting" but I can't tell which.

Also, I meant to say that the stat makes Eaton look better, not Eaton and Myers.

I ran Jamie Moyer, a 2006 "scrapheap" acquisition through this metric.

Using full season win averages and MLB win records (because I didn't feel like trawling through six years of gamelogs), Moyer's Wins Above Average (WAA) by season (all 25+ games started):

2000: 0.872
2001: 1.187
2002: 0.955
2003: 1.157
2004: 0.540
2005: 1.003
Six season average: 0.952

However, in 2006, despite a respectable 101 ERA+, Moyer managed a 6-12 record, or a WAA of 0.623. On a 78-84 Mariners team, you'd expect around 9 wins with Moyer's 2000-2005 0.952 WAA, so one could say he was "due" for a correction.

Once traded to the Phillies, his WAA shot to 1.361, using Phillies' full season figures and Moyer's MLB win record with them.

anyone else worried that myers relied too heavily on his breaking ball in a AA start? Wasn't his problem his this whole time his inability to rely on his fastball. When he was pitching well in the rotation a few years back he used to throw a ton of fastballs the first few times through the lineup and then start mixing in his curve and the like to give the lineup a different look after they'd seen him a few times. He threw 50% breaking balls in this start and proclaimed himself ready to go. I don't think he was truly looking to improve so much as to dominate against much weaker competition so he could punch his ticket back to Philly. I think he's gonna come back and if he's lucky have a couple of decent smoke and mirror starts, but in the end, nothing will have changed.

lekh tizdayen, I noticed that, too. I'd bet minor leaguers are more readily fooled by junk and would rather see the fastball. I agree with your assessment: nothing has changed.

Mets. 8 straight.


best staff in the league

Philly is an honestly is terrible.

please show me one team that can win a title.

GMEN super bowl champs.


hamels then??????????


hahaha

lets go mets.

lets go new york.

Multiply WAA by 100 then express it as a ratio to ERA+ and call the result WINS+. 1.0 means your starter is winning as many games as his ERA+ says he should. Less than means he should be winning more games; greater than means he should be winning less. This metric will probably fall apart with "super productive" pitching. For example, Pedro Martinez's 1.74 ERA in 2000 was enough for almost three starts on average, but you can't forward the remainder. Smoltz's 1996 season with an ERA+ of 149 has a WINS+ of 0.852, which is still a fairly strong correlation. Some adjustment to WAA is probably needed to make this a more consistent calculation.

2008 WINS+ by MLB record:
Myers: 0.621
Hamels: 0.810
Moyer: 0.950
Kendrick: 1.369
Eaton: 0.658

Analysis:

Hamels had some wasted gems this year, so his low ratio is not surprising. Moyer again offers what's expected, and Kendrick seems to win more often than his ERA+ would indicate at the same rate his WAA indicates. Despite their poor pitching, the offense seems to show up only about 63% of the time (give or take) for Myers and Eaton starts. Looking at their game logs reveals a bunch of starts with three runs or less with the expected result of Myers' log being more extreme.

I have never been to this site before because I am a Met fan, and secondly I do not spend my time on blogs. I am not against blogs at all, I do understand that they can be a useful tool in allowing the anti-social to have some sort of pseudo community, which is great. Some people need that, don't take it the wrong way at all. But, I have seen blogs before and when I came here to read how upset the Phillies fans are about losing all this ground in such a short time, I could not believe that most of the posts are personal attacks on Met fans (likely teenagers with nothing better to do) who are only trying to get a rise out of angry Phillies fans and don't care if they wind up right or wrong (and they probably are posting under different names to appear like a lot of people)... I was at the Mets blog, and while there is some personal attacking like any blog, there is almost no Phillies talk, it's mostly about their own team, and the attacks are minimal. I don't understand the negativity amongst Philadelphia sports fans, and I think they deserve to go another 25 years without a single championship. Based on this small sampling and the crowds at the ballpark, they seem overall angry and sad at their own lives and I suppose it could be the environment but cities like Detroit and Pittsburgh don't have this problem. So maybe it's the lack of a successful team for so long. I don't know. I've lived in NYC and that city is paradise in comparison. Philadelphia sports fans need to grow up.

Sorry for posting on a Brett Myers post, but since I won't be coming back to this blog anytime soon I wasn't going to wait for an appropriate spot, tho based on your anger I'm sure one would have come sooner than later.

Greg, that post doesn't seem to make much sense. Are you talking about the Mets fans insulting the Phillies fans on this site because I don't think Phillies fans are trying to get a rise out of angry Phillies fans by insulting Mets fans, that makes no sense.

lekh, whelkman: You have it exactly backwards. You WANT Myers to throw breaking stuff. His out pitch is his killer curve. He is not, never has been, a fastball pitcher. He uses the fastball to set up his breaking stuff. His out pitches are the curve and his cutter. He's got a slider too, but it isn't very good. You want him throwing the fastball in a good location to get ahead then coming back with curves and cutters. The reason he was going bad WASN'T his fastball. It was his location, which was terrible. He couldn't throw anything for quality strikes.

This is from last night's game account (emphasis mine):
"Unofficially, he threw 60 fastballs and 58 breaking balls, but just 33 fastballs after the second inning. His fastball stayed consistently in the 89-92 mph range, with a high of 95 in the first inning (which wound up a single).

Nine of his 10 punchouts came on his trademark breaking ball."

Big game today and we have the right guy on the hill. Win today and all will be good (more or less), first place going into the all star break (only the 10th time in team history). Lose and its a very long week.

Let's go Phils!

I have a feeling we won't be seeing Swindle for very much longer, but before he goes it's worth posting this comment about his baseball antecedent, Stu Miller, possibly the softest tosser in history (although he was righty and Swindle lefty):

"I still don't see how Stu Miller threw the ball that soft and got it to home plate. It was unbelieveable. If it wasn't the best change ever, it was one of the best. Because hitters knew what was coming and they still couldn't hit it. Then he'd jam them with his 75 mph fastball." -- Frank Robinson, quoted in the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers.

It's worth mentioning that the lineups last night did not include any hitters that are playing in the Futures game, most notably LaPorta. To put it in perspective, the R-Phils were without Marson, Donald, Golson, etc...

Oen more comment on Myers: In his last major league start he threw 66 pitches, 33 strikes and 33 balls. Last night, he threw 118 pitches, 72 strikes and 46 balls.

Like all breaking ball pitchers, when he can throw to his spots, he wins.

Greg: WTF are you talking about? The Philadelphia Soul are in the AFL Bowl. We Philadelphians are more than content with our city...

and now joking aside....


it's easy two cheer for a city that has 2 times the chance of winning because you have 2 teams per sport.

And why I HATE NY fans... they come out to CBP and fill our seats and talk so much sh!t because their park is a POS and everything is obsurdly overpriced.

Hope the Mets are enjoying their series with the retards of the west... Phillies will make their way out there eventually.

Not sure if anyone's posted this yet: Phils are looking at Fuentes (from philly.com)

The Phillies are trying to make their already formidable bullpen even stronger.
A source close to the situation said the Phillies are trying to acquire Colorado reliever Brian Fuentes, a 32-year-old lefthander who is 1-4 with a 3.50 ERA and 14 saves. He is to earn a little more than $5 million this year.

The Rockies have asked the Phils for righthander Carlos Carrasco or catcher Lou Marson, both of whom are at double-A Reading. They are regarded as two of the club's top prospects.

The Phillies have turned down the offer, but the teams still are talking, the source said.

The Phils have a best-in-the-majors 2.70 bullpen ERA, but they are looking for another lefthander to take some of the load off J.C. Romero.


call up happ, send down eaton.
if myers doesn't work out, call up carasco, myers to the bullpen.

no prospects lost. and honestly, happ and carasco can't do any worst than myers and eaton have done so far.

Oh and let myers come out to something heavy metal. every inning. should help him get his rock star feeling back.

Would be nice if Phillies can get Fuentes without giving up Carrasco or Marson.

I think Bedard pouts a lot because he is on crappy teams, orioles/mariners. He could be one of those cases where he gets motivated playing for a contender.

I realize, don't feed trolls, but this is astounding:

Greg:

"I could not believe that most of the posts are personal attacks on Met fans..."

which is followed by:

"[Philly fans] seem overall angry and sad at their own lives and I suppose it could be the environment but cities like Detroit and Pittsburgh don't have this problem. So maybe it's the lack of a successful team for so long. I don't know. I've lived in NYC and that city is paradise in comparison. Philadelphia sports fans need to grow up."

I guess consistency is not Greg's strongest mental characteristic.

I appreciate the post from "greg" the mets fan, even though I disagree with his premise and the fact that his primary purpose is to insult BLers (and Phillie fans) en masse. Unlike most of the Mets fans who visit this site, he manages to string together sentences and, yes, even a couple paragraphs. He may be right that most of the baiting posts from mets fans are the work of teenagers. If so, it doesn't bode well for the state of education in the NY metro area. I tend to believe they are the work of liquored up morons who bray like jackasses when their team is going well, and like to start fights for fun. We have a number of those in our camp but you don't find them often at this site. I like this site because the discourse is fun and mostly intelligent (sorry, clout, not going to call my cyber compadres "idiotic".) The discussion here sounds like most Phillies fans I know, more knowledgeable about baseball than the average fan, opinionated, mercurial. I don't know why you bother to respond to the bait from the trolls who blow through here. They'll be here when the mets win and they'll shrivel up under the couch like dust bunnies when they lose. It's the internet. You can't dump your beer on them or punch them in the nose if they don't knock it off. So, why bother?

I think the report on Myers is moderately encouraging. At least he's addressing his issue straight ahead. He needs to establish his fastball early and he's getting killed becuase he used to rely upon speed and movement more than location. The breaking ball, especially the big curve, was always his best pitch. Once he figures it out, he should be okay.

I hate the thought of selling a promising potential SP or catcher on a lefty specialist. Seems way too shortsighted for the value. I would love Fuentes or Damaso Marte, but not at those prices. I haven't really seen Bedard but all the descriptions make him sound worse than Kris Benson in his "prime." Burnett is intriguing, but the price will probably be too dear. It's looking more and more likely that they won't make a big splash before 7/31, and that maybe they shouldn't, either. I wouldn't be disappointed if they went with another scrap heap reliever to work along with Romero and experimented with Myers, Carrasco and Happ to cover the rotation, with one of them filling in to cover Gordon - either by taking the 8th or as part of a committee of setup guys. Another bat on the bench wouldn't hurt, either. I think Eaton is soon to walk the plank, but maybe he can move to long relief.

"I haven't really seen Bedard but all the descriptions make him sound worse than Kris Benson in his "prime."

not even close. Bedard was a Cy candidate last year and has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Benson needs to improve quite a bit to become as good as Bedard.

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