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Monday, July 28, 2008

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Trades... so scary. I would really like to see the Phils pursue a legit #2 starter so that our rotation of the future could be:

Hamels
#2
Carrasco
Happ
Kendrick

It's crazy.

I had a post with Manny in the title, and I've never seen so many hits on a goofy article.

It's fun toying with search engines.

Didn't even get a chance to talk Blanton today. Pretty lackluster so far.

It's kinda nice not even getting into Blanton...it's like he doesn't exist and the trade didn't happen.

It would be hard to complain, but it doesn't make a lot of sense. I assume the trade wouldn't involve dealing Burrell - that would be madness.

Here's how the lineups would break-down compared to what the Phils do currently:

Against LHP

Burrell - .954
Vic - .842
Werth - .999 (Manny is only .749 against LHP. This is new. Since 2006 he's 1.016 against LHP.)

RHP

Burrell - 1.000
Vic - .751
Manny - .977 (Jenkins is .732 this year and .869 since 2006)

Obviously there are more PA against RHP so it's not as if the adding Manny as a platoon with Werth would only improve the team in 50% of their PA. And there's always that chance that Manny's numbers against LHP this year are a fluke. My guess is that an introduction to the NL would really pop his numbers.

... and we didn't get to Utley's hip, Feliz's back, either.

Manny Ramirez + Jimmy Rollins=Kindred Spirits.

It would assure either instant World Series Gold, or a completely disastrous clubhouse mix.

Then again: Manny + Albert Bell + Cholly=WS appearance

Maybe Jimmy should just cork his bat and beef up. Phillies should also sign Jason Grimsley to sneak into the clubhouse and destroy all the evidence before the league could investigate further.


Yeah, let's get Manny. Then we'll have the Sixers go get Iverson back, and the Eagles can woo TO back from the Cowboys and we can just be showboat/headcase/punk central.

Manny is what, 38 years old? What is it about this team and aging ballplayers? It's like anyone under the age of 25 is krytonite as far as Gillick is concerned. If Manny is picked up by the Phils, he will hit .220 next year and be injured for at least 2 months.

CJ, what legit #2 starter is out there?

He's 36, curt.

Any interest in catchers? There are reportedly a few out there, including both Laird and Saltalamacchia in Texas.

Sophist: So we're talking about taking on 6.6 million in salary for two months and platooning the guy? I think the answer is that against lefites, Werth plays in center and Vic sits. The offense from that outfield would be unbelieveable, but the defense would be so amazingly bad that even Clout might admit that it made a difference.

If the headcase/punk wins me a world series/Super Bowl, so be it. I'm tired of being an also ran, runner up and watching other city's teams win.

If the headcase/punk wins me a world series/Super Bowl, so be it. I'm tired of being an also ran, runner up and watching other city's teams win.

It would be hilarious to see Burrell in right and Man Ram in left. Victorino would have to cover a ton of ground out there. And it would be awefully tough to pitch to Utley-Ramirez-Howard-Burrell 4 or 5 times a game. All in all it's probably not worth your catcher for hopefully the next 10 years for 2 months of Manny. That said, marson could end up sucking.

J - Well we'll need one if Marson is shipped out in the next few days. Is there one out there older than 35 that we can target?

Tony D: AJ Burnett will likely be a free agent this offseason.

Can you imagine Manny's reaction if he were told he'd be platooning with Werth? LOL

If the phils aren't done dealing, I'd like to see them add a catcher with a BA. of above .210. That'd be nice.

Blanton blows, but the Phils are 2-0 in his starts.

Jason: I'll say it before someone else does...

Let's deal for Salty from the Rangers and when Marson is ready to come up it'll be time to ship out Howard and move Salty to first.

Can someone explain to me why the Braves were shipping out prospects to get Jason Bay? The Pirates owner vetoed it... so the Braves are pretty lucky.

Did everyone see the Ibanez rumor from Hagen? They scouted him in Toronto. Keep your eye on that one. He seems like a better fit for the Mets, though.

Yorvit Torrealba is said to be available. Iannetta is getting a lot of playing time.

There's a ton of good free agent pitches after this season, and the rotation CJ proposes amazingly costs less than $30 million, with the #2 TBA taking up 2/3 of that money.

Jack: You keep distorting my views (as usual). Defense is important. And RF is an important position. Where we differ is on whether thirdbase is the most important defensive spot on the field and whether Pedro "Gold Glove" Feliz's defensive magnificence offsets his legaue worst offense vs. RHP.

P.S. And trading Kendrick wouldn't get you off the hook for predicting he'd have a bad year.

I know its only been 8 innings, but Blanton looks awfully familiar. Is he the poor man's Adam Eaton? God I hope not but is there anybody out there that isn't scared to death of that possibility. I know it wasn't a popular trade, but could those chickens be coming home to roost already? This FO doesn't seem to give a rat's a** about pitching. They continually go the cheap, bargain basement route when it comes to arms. Unbelievable. That's the kind of stupidity that is almost impossible to overcome.

There's no DH in the National League. There's nowhere for Ramirez to play here. You can't move Burrell to right field. It won't happen. Besides, the nosedive of Carlos Ruiz has all but mandated that Marson is an untouchable.

What else could be expected from Blanton *other* than lackluster?

The Utley hip problem is the usual Phillies injury mystery. I wonder if there's an organization in sports - hell, a company in the world - that is less straightforward about anything than the Phillies (both players and management) are about injuries.

I wonder if there's an organization in sports - hell, a company in the world - that is less straightforward about anything than the Phillies (both players and management) are about injuries.

Hey, if this was hockey, Utley would have a "lower body injury".

Don't get me wrong, if these deal happened I'd probably be swept up in the initial excitement. But it would be a really bad deal.

Also, it won't happen--I don't believe that the Phils suddenly don't mind taking on that kind of contract.

Burrell has never played RF and Manny hasn't been there since 2000...Defensively, that has disaster written all over it.

I heard someone make a comment on WIP that if we had Burrell in left and Man Ram in right, Victorino would be like a video game blip in center. He's certainly get his exercise out there.

RUTS beat me to it--any NHL team is way more elusive about injuries. Also, the New England Patriots and a few other NFL teams.

I'm not a Manny fan, but the guy is a GREAT hitter. I'd be cool with Burrell in RF, Vic in CF, and Manny in LF, with Werth serving as the backup to all 3. If the Phils could unload Jenkins to the BoSox while including Marson and that be that, with the Phils picking up Manny's option next year to replace Burrell, it seems like a deal that could be a World Series winner, especially if Gillick goes for anothe reliever too.

If we got Manny, I'd leave Burrell in LF. He may be slow but he knows how to play there, especially in CBP. No reason to downgrade two OF positions when you only have to downgrade (albeit seriously) one.

This is the point in the conversation when a 14-year-old Phillies fan takes a break from XBOX to mention that Pat Burrell used to play third base in college.

Jack: Absolutely classic. Just vintage Clout. He whines about you distorting HIS views, and then goes on to imply that you think third base is the most important defensive spot on the field, when of course you have never said anything even close to that.

What a shame that it all comes down to the headcase/punks of the world. I'm always up on my high horse saying "we don't need this jerk or that convict or whatever". In the end I am coming to realize that I have been missing the point. In this day and age it seems you just about have to sell your soul to the devil if you want to win a championship. It seems almost impossible to avoid these poisonous players and still compete to win it all. Manny is a sick hitter, and a complete idiot. But I guess you have to consider it if you want to win. Yecch! Oh well, at least TO still doesn't have a ring.

@RSB -- why does it matter whether they disclose Utley's injury or not?

No one here has made a reasonable argument.

Injuries are disclosed in football for ONE reason and one reason only. Gambling purposes. The NFL won't say it. But that's the only reason you get a detailed medical report. The NFL will say, so everyone plays on a fair playing ground when preparing. But it's only about gambling.

If Utley has a nagging injury, that's not bad enough to sit, and not harmful enough to cause future injury. Why does it matter that @RSB get a text message alert that Chase Utley doesn't feel well today.

Mike C: It doesn't matter, but it gives some people the ability to complain about another thing regarding management.

Yea, the 3-time champion Patriots have been listing Tom Brady with a non-existent injury for a few years now. They've also, at times, done things like put their entire roster as probable for a week at a time. That was in response to the Falcons, who said Vick was going to play, and then 30 minutes before game time said he was actually out.



If it happened, and it won't, I don't think you can platoon Ramirez. His numbers vs LHP are down but thats 79-PA aberration. The fact is he's a right handed hitter who, throughout his career, has been solidly better vs LHP than RHP. If you want Werth's bat in vs LHP, see if Manny can take grounders at first.

As for trading Marson, I would consider him untouchable. To Me, Catcher is one of those spots, that if you have a Major League Prospect in there you keep him or trade for pitching, NOT for an aging headcase of a power hitter.

How long would it take Manny to figure out that there's no door in Left Field at the bank for Manny to take cell phone calls.

Plus Manny hits well with 2 strikes.

Mike C.: it's just the usual contradiction between mgmt. and player that irks me. One party says yes, the other says no. Get on the same page, at least. You never know who's telling the truth. I wouldn't claim that it's 'necessary' for me to know one way or the other, but obviously the health status of one of the best players on a team I care about enough to follow on a daily basis is something that concerns me.

Mlb.com has an article claiming that Roy Halladay may be on the block. If he is traded, the Phillies have to get him.

Does Victorino, Myers, one of the catchers (Marson or Jaramillo) and Carrasco or Happ get you in the conversation?

Halladay is 31 and locked up through 2010. You’d bring up Golson or trade for someone to play center everyday or platoon with Jenkins. I’d personally give up both Carraso and Happ for him. I guess the real question is do they have any interest in Myers?

Forget about Manny. It will not happen.

here's the link -
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080728&content_id=3211613&vkey=trade2008&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

I would trade anyone for Halladay.

I would trade the entire Reading Phillies roster for Halladay.

Halladay has been 6 1/2 wins better than Blanton this season, according to BP.

I'm 99.9% sure we don't have what it takes to land Halladay. But if we're making an all-in offer, it would've been nice to throw in Cardenas and Outman, no?

I would trade the deed to the reading phils for Halladay

Re the Utley injury: he's hurt but doesn't want to come out and say so because it looks like an excuse for poor play so Gillick "leaks it" and then lets Utley deny it so as to save face...or he's not hurt but Gillick's saying he is to take the heat off of him while he tries to get his swing back.

Utley seems pretty prideful and although he is prone to streakiness, I feel there must be some truth to the injury fo rhim to have been this bad for so long this season. I am going with Theory A myself.

I'd trade anyone too. I'm just wondering if the Phils have enough to get him. I think they do. I think the 4 for 1 above could be sweetened to be enough.

Would you trade Rollins to get Halladay?

Now a guy like Halladay... is where Marson could come into play.

Halladay and Hamels would be an amazing 1-2 in the rotation.

Make it happen, Pat!

I agree with what everyone is saying.. there aren't any untouchables in a Halladay trade. Marsen, Rollins, whatever. I would try like hell not to give up Rollins cause their lineup already has too many holes. But anyone in the minors is fair game. Anyone.

I would trade the deed for the entire city of Reading for Halliday.

Clout: Kendrick has had a somewhat better year than I'd predicted. Honestly, I thought he'd have an ERA around 5, instead it's 4.70 (if I remember correctly, I offered to set the over/under on it at 4.75, taking the over, and you declined).

But you think Kendrik has had a good year? His ERA+ is 95, and again, I've laid out the case that it's generous, considering he leads the team in unearned runs allowed, and his peripheral numbers all indicate he's been lucky to "only" have a 4.70 ERA.

He also has rarely pitched deep into games, going only 8 innings more than Brett Myers, who most people want to ship out of town, despite having 3 more starts. He has only gone past the 6th inning 5 times. He as actually put the most usage on the bullpen per start of any of our pitchers, going only 5 and 1/3 per start, as opposed to Adam Eaton, who has averaged 5 2/3 per start, and Brett Myers, who goes 6 IP per start (Moyer and Hamels have obviously been better than these guys in pretty much every category). According to The Hardball Times, he has had less value this year than Chad Durbin, despite pitching 65 more innings.

Kendrick has, amazingly, been probably our 3rd best starter this year. But he has been nowhere near a "good" pitcher. It speaks mostly to the horror show that has been Adam Eaton and Brett Myers that Kendrick is our 3rd best pitcher. He would be a 5th starter on other contenders (Cubs, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Brewers) and a 4th starter on the others.

I don't advocate trading Kyle Kendrick- a 4th starter being paid pennies is worth more than he would bring back probably. But let's not pretend like he's a good major-league pitcher. He's below average no matter how you cut it, and I don't see where the case can be made that he's getting better, or will get better.

Jerry: Rollins for Hallady? Throw in David Eckstein and you've got a deal.

Haven't you heard- he's a scrappy winner. Our MVP shortstop is just a guy who fills a stat sheet.

The Phils would need to give up a lot more than Rollins for Halladay.

Eckstein? I had forgotten that Toronto was the latest stop in his right place/right time career. Way to build a left side of the infield for the future there, Jays.

Jack: So a guy who's 18-9 in his first 41 starts with a career ERA+ of 106 and has held righties in his career to an OPS of .661 is not good?

Obviously the guy has had a couple of bad starts this year, but he's also had quality starts in more than half his appearances. The team is 14-7 in games he starts this year. It's his 2nd year in the league and he was rushed from Double A. Despite that, he's been a pretty steady guy on the mound.

But I guess he's not very "good."

Jack: If Kendrick hasn't been "good." Then how would you describe Pedro Feliz's year thus far?

Dave X, clout -- I don't actually think the Phils would platoon Manny in RF, if they acquired him without giving up Burrell, Vic, and Werth. First, it's likely that his numbers against LHP will only get better this year especially if he switches to the NL. Second, I posted those numbers mostly to imply that Manny is more than the Phillies need. Considering their other weaknesses and how much he'd cost, I'd honestly use that value to upgrade the rotation and just roll the dice on Jenkins reverting to his 2006-7 numbers against RHP.

Jenkins is a guy who we don't spend a lot of time talking about, compared to Feliz and Kendrick, but who's just as interesting and important. The Phils have twice as many total PA against RHP than LHP (2777 vs. 1324), which limits the value of Werth's stellar numbers against LHP.

Jenkins by year against RHP

(30) 05: .307/.384/.538
(31) 06: .306/.381/.490
(32) 07: .262/.326/.482
(33) 08: .252/.308/.425

That is pretty painful and not a good sign.

Why would the Rockies trade Fuentes now?

They are in it. They just blasted the Reds in 3 straight, and are only 5 or 6 games out, of a awful division. If anything, they will likely add a pitcher, instead of deal one. Fuentes is a important part of their pen.

In case anyone was wondering...

Outman at AA Midland- 3 2/3 IP, 7 hits, 5 ER, 3 BB's and 1 K.

Cardenas at A Stockton- 43 AB's, 13 hits, 1 HR, 6 RBI's.

Spencer at A Stockton- 35 AB's, 15 hits, 0 HR, 4 RBI's.

Our focus should be on a Halladay type deal (if possible). Manny is tempting, but starting pitching is what this team needs most. I wouldn't trade Marson for Manny, but like other posters I would trade him in a package for Halladay.

Although Jenkins is hitting .250/.325/.528 in 40 PA in July. Last year he declined drastically every month. This year he's alternating his good and horrid months.

denny b.: You're right. The Rockies aren't dealing. Six games out in that awful division is nothing. They're just starting to get healthy again and their 9-1 in their last 10. They're not out of it and they'll get two draft picks when Fuentes leaves anyway. They just have no incentive to deal. They'll make their run this year, let Fuentes walk in the offseason and trade Holliday for prospects over the winter while his value is do high. They're in a good spot right now.

Phils need to make a trade. I say get Manny if it requires Marson, what the heck. The lineup would be sick (as long as Chase gets back to form) Manny and J Roll would eventually implode, so what. For now, this would make legitimate the team and give them a real chance to go to the WS. Wouldn't that be phrikin nice? come on.
If they wait on Marson, then what? by then, they will lack in other areas of the lineup. Then they will have other excuses.
Stop making excuses. Make a big necessary move. Manny or Halladay. Bring it Bytches !Bring a title to Philly. Make the moves. Deal with the consequences later.
We need a title. NOW.

I would trade the deed for the entire city of Reading for Halliday.

Should've just stopped at the Reading Phils. :)

But we just got a title yesterday!

TK - wtph

? color me clueless ?

The Philadelphia Soul! Arena Bowl Champs!

Yes, I'm being sarcastic.And I pretty much agree with you.

gotcha !

sorry, baseball on the brain.


"3:06pm: GM Pat Gillick says the Phillies have no interest in Ramirez. He makes the fairly obvious point that the Phils don't have an open position for Manny."

from mlb trade rumors

Regarding Jenkins :

I was reading on the THT about him, and how there were all sorts of red flags last year. The 20 point batting average drop despite having a normal BABIP indicated a potential loss of bat speed, and although his OBP fell his SLG went up. This was due to a number of HR that were hit just over the fence. Since, naturally, if a player is declining their power will also decline, what you see this year is those homers not going over the fence - even at CBP - and a further deterioration of batting average. He's only 33, but its not completely uncommon to see players be done this early.

talk Manny Ramirez net Kevin Millar
talk Roy Halladay net Freddy Garcia

Are there any prediction markets re: Manny signing a contract with the Mets in the off-season? Seems to the right person at the right time.

How about Harry Kalas for Halladay. Seriously though, it's too bad we jumped the gun and shipped off Cardenas. A Cardenas, Donald, Golson, Carrasco, Marson package could have done the trick.

Dave X - I was just glancing at his LD%, GB%, FB%, BABIP, etc. year by year and that sounds about right. His numbers this year and last for LD%, GB% and FB% are all about the same. But his BABIP was much higher last year .304 vs. .279, and his HR/FB was much higher as well: 18.3% to 12.3%.

All of his batted ball stats are within a percentage point of last year's stats.

His Ks are down. Lord knows we all hate Ks.

Doubt it. Don't you think that Toronto would want at least one player with proven big league ability? It's not KC, you know.

Not Harry, but I WOULD throw in Wheels.

Manny and Halladay are pipe dreams. Randy Winn and Paul Byrd could be an ugly reality.

Jack: You know the rules, no talking about Kendrick or Rollins. They are sacred golden idols, that must be worshipped unconditionally, less you receive a severed horse's head in your sheets in the morning.

Hey, with the way the "oxymoron" thinks about the players in their farm system, they should be ale to get Halladay for "some dudes".

'able' to get

"Lest" you get.

GM: I'd actually like Winn, but I think even he is too expensive for ownership's frugal tastes. He is making $8 mill. this season. That is about $7.5 mill. over what they have any intention of spending in picking up a contract.

I wouldn't mind replacing Taguchi or Jenkins with Randy Winn.

I would trade clout for Halladay. Probably would have to throw in GM-Carson too.

From BP.com:

Hewitt's entry into the game was well-publicized; he was the best athlete in this year's draft, a player that some scouts scored as a perfect 80 on raw power, speed, and arm. The only problem was that nobody really thought he was a very good baseball player yet. Nevertheless, the Phillies love athletes, so they took him with their first-round selection, and so far he's exceeded expectations. After a two-hit game on Friday, Hewett went 4-for-7 with two doubles and his first professional home run in a Saturday doubleheader, raising his debut-season averages to .333/.385/.583. He also drew his first walk of the year (it took him ten games) and made a couple of errorless starts at third base, a 'read and react' position that might work better for him than those requiring game instincts.

------------

Randy Winn 2008 vs. RHP: .280/.348/.370

40 points higher OBP than Jenkins. Not stellar, but I'm guessing he'd be cheap (in terms of what you'd offer) because his contract is so expensive. That's a pretty crappy OPS though. I guess he does play half his game in SF.

Check out the Phils depth chart. Somebody's missing at Starting Pitching....HMMM...

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=phi

Randy Winn? I wouldn't mind replacing Taguchi or Jenkins with Jimmy "the Toy Cannon" Wynn, and he's 66.

Anybody want to place any bets that the Sox let Manny walk and go hard after Burrell in the off season? I can just see it happening and it makes me sick to my stomach.

Winn has 20+ SB this year as well, and he's batting .287/.359/.413 away from SF. Sounds pretty good. Doubt the ownership will pay all his salary though, which I'm guessing is the deal SF wants to make.

He's cold in July (.200/.260/.214) but his OBP in May and June was over .380.

Dave X:

No, no. I'm not worried about Jenkins. Even players at age 36 or 37 regularly regain their bat speed and revert to their norms at totally unpredictable times, despite clear indications to the contrary over the period of several months. I have complete confidence that he will be jacking HR's everywhere in no time at all. Just look at what Carlos Delgado and Fernando Tatis are doing. 40 is the new 30.

Tony D- according to Jason Weitzel (GM of this site) I'm off limits in this trade market, too good to part with I suppose.

Jack: For a guy who criticizes others for ignoring context you commit the same violation. Kendrick is a good back of the rotation starter. Just as Rollins is a good shortstop. If you compare Rollins 97 OPS+ to all the league's hitters he doesn't look so good. But that's a dumb exercise. He should be compared to other shortstops. And Kendrick should be compared to others of what he is: A 4th or 5th starter. As such, he's pretty good.

I bet even your little yappy lapdog Brian G knows that.

Its interesting that that depth chart doesn't include Myers, but still has Eaton in the bullpen. Although it says its been updated today, Eaton's inclusion does lead me to doubt it as a useful barometer for anything.

"Check out the Phils depth chart. Somebody's missing at Starting Pitching....HMMM..."

Yeah, but they also still have Eaton in the 'pen. Odd that Myers isn't listed. Was he listed yesterday?

I think some people have a mistaken opinion on what Kendrick should be. He is essentially your 4th or 5th starter.

Of his 21 starts this season- 11 have qualified as "quality starts." Do you know how many teams in the league would take that from a guy in Kendrick's place.

Kendrick is fine for what he is. A fine, steady guy at the back-end of the rotation.

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