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Thursday, June 19, 2008

Comments

I'm not confident the Phils could swing a deal for Sabathia, Oswalt. But they could probably compete for Fuentes, and that would not be an insignificant improvement at all.

J~

I do believe PG will do something. He knows the team is pretty much the class of the division. It's just a matter of what he'll have to give up.

The major problem I see with Oswalt is that his secondary numbers have been going down the last few years straight. Soon he won't be more than a 3/4 guy. He's not the Roy Oswalt that most people think of when they hear the name. The HRs are indicitive of his decline and its not likely a statistic that would improve upon moving to CBP.

Get Mahay. Decent and won't be too expensive.

Oswalt OPS against:

2005: .688
2006: .698
2007: .705
2008: .826

His IPs has also declined for 4 straight seasons now as well:

2005: 241.2
2006: 220.2
2007: 212.0
2008: 212.0*

*=projected.

Can we say overusage. He screams for a Freddy Garcia type of issue with his arm.

Hi Clout,

From a previous post in regards to trading Ruiz. My thoughts would be to let Marson finish his minor league season and be called up in Sept. Call Jarmillo up if a trade occured in July. Decide between the 2 for a playoff roster spot. I don't know if any of this is doable.
My biggest fear is the Phils trading Marson.
I think Ruiz would bring value because he is major league ready and would surely be attractive to someone thin in the catching department. Plus he is young.

Speaking of the trade value of Ruiz, what's the trade value of Marson? If you read Beerleaguer, you could deal him straight up for Sabathia ...

Scarily I can see Gillick's reasoning of "We have Ruiz/Coste and Jaramillo is only 25 so why not trade Marson for a pitcher...besides I'm retired in 6 months so it doesn't effect me". That terrifies me. I don't want to lose a great prospect because the FO is so shortsighted that they trade one of the best catching prospects in the minors for a rental player.

I think the Indians would have to throw in something to sweeten...

LOL...no Marson isn't that high trade value wise. You could probably get a good reliever straight up for him though. Above average defensive catching prospects who can hit for average are a rare thing and thus quite valuable. Marson, Carrasco, Outman, and one other would be a far price for Sabathia though. Thats 2 A level prospects, a B level and a throwin...pretty high for a rental player.

If Lou Marson were in the Yankees system he would be the buzz name around baseball, but alas he's only in the lowly Phils system. Marson has really come on and shouldn't be traded unless it really is for a good pitcher. Not Paul Byrd or Livan Hernandez...I said good.

I think I heard that Oswalt's K-rate actually climbed this year from the last few, but it only did so at the expense of every other stat. He worries me. I'm not sure he's the kind of arm we'd want to bring in.

Fuentes would be a very fine addition to this team.

JW: What about a challenge trade of Myers (and maybe a throw in fringe prospect) for Oswalt? The Astros save money on the deal and it alleviates the potential future disaster of the Phillies talking themselves into thinking that Brett will be a good closer in 2009 (his walk year) for $12 mil. Not sure if we could fleece Wade with this, but I'd certainly offer the trade if I worked on Phillies Way.

His increase in K/9 is about the only thing positive that can be said of Oswalt's 2008 numbers.

MPN - I was thinking the same thing.

Maybe throw in Golson so he he has his 1999 and 2004 1st round picks.

However I think the 'Stros could use some catching help so maybe throw in the rights to Mike Lieberthal as well.

Oswalt and Myers aren't even in the same ballpark for upsides though...it would have to be significantly more than Myers and a fringe prospect for Oswalt.

NEPP: Yes, probably would need to tack on at least a prospect with some upside, but (a) Brett is 3 years younger than Roy and (b) I did say that Brett and a fringe prospect would be a fleece job. Still, I should have said Brett plus a legit prospect at the outset to stave off things like JB mentioning Mike Lieberthal as part of the deal...

The old Roy Oswalt would never be available. This version scares me. Does the name Barry Zito ring a bell. And to a lesser extent Sabathia. He doesn't look like the same pitcher. At least you wouldn't be stuck with a huge contract with him.

Oswalt would likely be much cheaper (prospect-wise) than Sabathia but more painful when you're carrying his $16 million salary in 3 years.

The old Roy Oswalt would never be available. This version scares me. Does the name Barry Zito ring a bell. And to a lesser extent Sabathia. He doesn't look like the same pitcher. At least you wouldn't be stuck with a huge contract with him.

What about Rich Harden? He has better stuff than all of the above. Big injury risk, but he is a legit #1 and hasn't thrown many innings.

Would we have what it takes to get it done?

donc: This version of Roy Oswalt does not scare me as much knowing that he'd probably be amenable to being coached by Dubee and mentored by Moyer. Oswalt could transition to more of a finesse pitcher and do fine... plus I don't think CBP would be in his head too much considering the unfriendly confines of Houston's stadium (particularly the short porch to LF).

I took a peek at Bedard's splits and they don't look so great to be honest.

His home/road split is worse than Brett Myers:

Home: 2.30 ERA
Road: 7.40 ERA

His K/BB ratio took a huge dip this year and is down to 2.00 on the season down from 3.88 last year (his supposed breakout year). His K/9 numbers are way down from last season as well and are now more in line with his career numbers. Everything in his numbers suggest that last year was an aberration and that he's not a top of the line guy. I really think the Mariners got fleeced on this one.

According to most baseball sources, Billy Beanes pricetag for Rich Harden is said to be astronomical. Way to high considering the injury risk. He's content to sit on him and simply pick up his option year next season if he stays healthy...if not that, take the compensation picks.

All this talk about trading for a starting pitcher scares the hell out of me. We're really talking about guys like Oswalt (declining numbers, big contract), Bedard (declining numbers), and Rich Harden (big-time injury risk).

C.C. Sabathia is down so far this year, but coming off consecutive seasons of ERA +'s of 140+. Of course, I can't imagine we have anywhere near the ammunition to trade for this 3 month rental.

The more I think about it, the more I want this team to seek out bullpen help (lots of lefties available) and dip into our minors if necessary for starting pitching (Happ for starters).

CJ: since his rough start, Sabathia is actually leading the league in ERA over the past 10 starts or so. He's completely turned it around since the first 2-3 weeks.

We already have a very good bullpen...it doesnt help if you're already out of the game in the 4th innning though.

CC Sabathia
April: 7.76 ERA, 5 GS
May: 2.44 ERA, 6 GS
June: 2.74 ERA, 3 GS

cy: Don't get me wrong, if there is a decent chance Oswalt can return to form I'd open the vault for him. Maybe a change of scenery would help and no, I'm not worried about CBP either. It worries me that he's been on the slide for the better part of two years now. And that's a lot of money he's owed over the next three years. Its probably a moot point. I don't see Gillick or any of the braintrust putting their heads in a $15,000,000 noose. His stuff was seriously wicked a few years ago though.

Sorry, I meant a $45,000,000 noose. What's $30,000,000 amongst friends.

Our last trade for a washed up Astros pitcher worked out alright.

What usually happens around the trade deadline is that the teams that are on the fence between buying and selling take a hard look at their situation, and err on the side of holding onto their players. Lots of big names are getting tossed around right now but, come the end of July, I suspect that guys like Sabathia, Harden, Cook, Lowe, and Maddux are all going to stay put, as their teams realize that, just because you're 6 out on July 31 does not mean that you're out of the playoff race (That's clout's cue for his weekly tirade about the Abreu trade).

More often than not, the only starting pitchers who change teams at the trade deadline are mediocre, back-of-the-rotation types who probably wouldn't be of much help to the Phillies (i.e., Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Bronson Arroyo).

Actually in Bill James's Goldmine 2008, he concluded that championship teams have better back of the rotation pitching, not front of the rotation pitching.

NEP: Like I said, Sabathia sounds great, but do you honestly believe that 1) the Phils have the prospects to get him or 2) that we would empty our already thin farm system for a 3 month rental?

And we are in first place right now with our starting pitching and have rarely been out of it by the 4th inning. Our bullpen has been absolutely essential to our success and considering so many of our relievers seem to be pitching over their head, it seems like upgrading the backend of our bullpen would be a great idea.

But our rotation simply needs much more help. I mean, we could shore up the pen, but they ARE performing well already. In the end--Bill James be damned--I just can't see a LOOGY being the difference between winning and losing a World Series.

baxter: Two questions come right to mind. First, what did he mean by "championship team?" Does that term encompass division champions, or just World Series champions? Second, when you say that championship teams have better back-end starters, who are you comparing them to? Do you mean compared to other playoff teams, or do you mean compared to non-playoff teams?

There is no question that, in the regular season, it is a big advantage to have good back-end starters. Many teams use inexperienced prospects or borderline major leaguers as their 5th, and sometimes even 4th, starter. If you can trot out reasonably competent major league pitchers for the back spots in your rotation, you stand a good chance of being very competitive in the regular season. But, once the playoffs start, that 5th starter's spot becomes 100% irrelevant, and even the 4th starter's spot takes on very little importance.

The Phillies already have reasonably competent back-end starters in Kendrick, the 2008 edition of Adam Eaton, and even Brett Myers. Upgrading from Myers to, say, Randy Wolf, may marginally improve their already good chances of making the playoffs. But it will do nothing to improve their hopes once the playoffs actually start.

I agree with strengthening the bullpen. Romero's clock is going to strike midnight sooner or later, as is Durbin's. If a bullpen piece can be had on the cheap, it would be worth getting. A starting pitching upgrade would help more but would also probably kill the Phils' farm system. I disagree with those who say to go all-in for this year. Consider that it is not all too uncommon for a last place team to beat a first place team in a series, off the top of my head this year the Red Sox were swept by the Jays earlier this season. When the talent gap is closer, at is in the playoffs, the outcome of a single 5 or 7 game series is almost random.

More rumors from MLBTR-
The Phillies have already inquired on Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo, and Jarrod Washburn. Stark sees Bedard joining that group, but believes it'd require Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo.

Ryan Freel is drawing strong interest; Stark names the Phillies, Braves, Mets, and Marlins as suitors.

Here's what Jayson Stark had to say:
• Phretting in Philly: With the help of a number of clubs that have spoken with the Phillies, we've assembled this shopping list of starting pitchers it appears they've at least kicked tires on: Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo and (surprisingly) Jarrod Washburn. Bedard just hit the market, so you can add his name any minute now.

But those same clubs say the Phillies might have the hardest decisions to make of just about any team with win-the-World Series upside. If they go for it now -- and decimate their still-thin system to deal for a big-name rent-a-pitcher like Sabathia or Burnett -- this might be the only year they'd be capable of contending.

To make a trade like that, they'd probably have to give up both of their two most advanced starting-pitching prospects, Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo. So if they lose Brad Lidge and their rent-a-starter to free agency, and Jamie Moyer retires, Brett Myers doesn't rebound and Adam Eaton's first half turns out to be a mirage, the Phillies' pitching staff next year would essentially consist of Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, an uncertain Myers and seven question marks.

"So that's a tough call," said one NL executive. "Do you say, 'Go for it, and the hell with next year'? Or do you think big picture, but maybe not have enough [pitching] to win this year? It's a scary choice to have to make."

***Personally I'd like to not trade away all of our prospects because we don't have many, especially not at the price of a Washburn or Arroyo. Bedard or Sabathia would be worth a real long look, but they'd likely only be rent-a-players, same with AJ Burnett who continues to underwhelm.

re: Myers -
he's staying in the rotation and not being traded. why would the Phils add another righty to the BP? and who would take him at this point? It's better if the Phillies hope he gets his mental game together along with improved control of his breaking balls. He seems to have forgotten how to throw his curve ball effectively since going into the BP last year. hopefully, he'll relearn it by the All-star break and stop relying on his fat fastball.
when he's back to where he was during the 2005-2006 season, the Phils will have their #2/3 starter.

re: Bedard
Last year was definitely not an aberration. What was an aberration was staying healthy so as not to miss a good chunk of games. Unlike most of our starters, he is a swing-and-miss pitcher with a nasty nasty breaking ball that makes good batters look silly. The problem is that he loves strike outs and isn't that efficient with innings. But while that was a huge problem in Baltimore where the BP was relatively bad to AL East hitters, here he'd be handing the ball over to a solid BP. He wore out a bit because of that bad BP and threw more than 100 pitches in 90% of his games. And as a I said previously, he usually becomes unhittable starting in July through the rest of the season. Since he had a late start this year, and the Phils pick him up, he'll start producing in August. He's a bit like Utley personality-wise in that he doesn't really like doing anything but play baseball, but I'd bet that he's going to be a big-time difference maker down the stretch if he's on a playoff-bound team.

re: Harden
Beane is apparently asking for A LOT because Harden is relatively cheap for 1.5 years. And when he's healthy, he's simply one of the best, if not the best, pitcher in baseball. He also is one of those rare pitchers that doesn't seem to need a lot of games to get up to his top gear. If the Phils get him somehow, they should lock him up in the training facility and not let him out until the postseason. I also think he'd be a good fit for this clubhouse.

re: Oswalt
I've got concerns about Oswalt. He's become inconsistent, trending downwards for the past year and a half. He used to be able to go consistently deep into games, but now, he's getting hit hard and tiring early.

re: Sabathia
CC used to be an injury risk. And still is. He's probably suffering from a CY hangover and hasn't been taking care of his body as he should've been. Seeing that he's the first starter on the trading block that teams are going to bid for, some poor team is going pay way too much for him and end up having to deal with his lazy ass.

Derek Lowe would be awesome for the Phils. But why the Dodgers would give up their #1 starter in an up-for-grabs NL West race while undermining Torre's short-term and long-term prospects in his first year at the helm, I have no idea.

Looking at PG's record, I'd say that we are going to pick up a TOR reliever and maybe a starter from the AL West who will become our #2/3. Of course, I will hold out hope that they upgrade to Atkins (no offense to Feliz, who has met expectations), but that's not as big a priority as the other needs.

timr: Again, we're not talking about a LOOGY, that's not what Brian Fuentes would be.

Who do you suggest we trade for to shore up our rotation and how do you suggest we go about getting that pitcher?

Bedard will not be a rental player, he's got another year on his deal..

bob: Where are you getting that information on Bedard? According to his career splits, August is his worst month, posting a 4.86 ERA. His best months are May, June and July while his worst are March, August and September. Last year, May was his best month and August was his 2nd worst (he didn't pitch in September). In 2006, August was his 2nd worst month. There simply doesn't seem to be any perceptible 2nd half emergence from Erik Bedard.

And Bedard may "only" cost Carrasco and Bastardo? I'd do that. A lot of people think Carrasco's ceiling is of a #3 starter, which isn't bad at all, but isn't "can't miss prospect" territory and some say Bastardo may end up a LOOGY type.

Bedard hasn't exactly been around a long time. Looks like he got his stuff together in 06, which isn't that long ago.

Bed Beard: You think Bedard's season thus far is an aberration? Last year he had a 4-to-1 K to walk ratio... this year it's 2-to-1. His K/9 fell from 10.9 last year to 8.3 this year. His ERA is a career low 96. He's averaging just 5.2 innings per start, down a full inning from last year.

If we believe it's aberration, then you deal our top two pitching prospects for a guy who may give us just a year and a half before hitting the market.

I also believe our top two prospects, while nice, aren't that special, so if you can get a Bedard for this season and next at the least, it's probably worth doing, since most thing our window may not be open long.

I can't really get too excited about Washburn. His horrible 2008 numbers look anomalous on the surface, but he's also 34 and really hasn't been anything more than a back-end starter since he was still with the Angels. If that's his upside, what's the point?

Arroyo is a curiosity to me. He has been a solidly above average pitcher for the last 4 years and, in 2006, even looked like he was on the verge of stardom. This year, however, he has just been putrid. Kind of leads me to wonder if there's an injury issue.

Arroyo is under contract through 2010. He'll make $9.5M next year, $11M in 2010, and has an $11M club option in 2011. The contract could be either a plus or minus to the team that gets him. It's a plus in the sense that he'd be no mere rental; but it's a major liability if he keeps pitching as he has done this year. My guess is that the Reds would give him up for relatively little, just to get rid of his contract.

Basically, Arroyo is kind of like another Brett Myers -- high upside, high salary, terrible 2008 performance. He's only 31 and I have to think he still has some good years left in him. Assuming he's not injured, I'd be in favor of taking a flier on him, in the hopes that he can return to last year's form -- ideally this season but, if not, then maybe next year. He may not be the near-certainty that Sabathia or Aaron Cook would be, but he does have the potential to be a No. 2 starter and he could probably be gotten without having to give up the crown jewels of our farm system.

"thing"=think

I can't imagine the Phils taking on Arroyo unless the Reds take a lot of his salary or take Eaton or something. He's just not much of an improvement on anything.


**the fact that he had flashes in the past are intriguing, so I can understand why there's some interest, i'm just wary of hoping guys magically turn it back on, when we're looking for someone down the stretch to solidify the rotation. Seems like it'd be a typical Phillie move-trade for a guy yo u hope gets it all together, when other teams trade for guys who do have it togethe,r already.

Lurker here. Reading the talk of how to phill out the back half of the season with a quality pitcher has made for some interesting specualtion.


I think the A's are only three games back of the halos in the division, and the wild card spot should be within their grasp as well. So, if the Phillies do their job this weekend that gap may vanish altogether.

I am wondering if Beane is really going to be doing any bartering come the trade deadline?

I am very leary to make those sorts of deals. I am much more interested in building a system that could put us as *possible* contenders for several years, than to blow the whole wad on one year, and have to suffer throgh 5-6 years of terrible baseball.

Go for a guy whose got good groundball tendencies, but isn't lights out. If he's got decent control and can get hitters to put it on the ground, he'll be able to walk away from the phils in a couple of years and make alot of money, because he will win games in CBP.

Jeremy Guthrie comes to mind as just that type of pitcher. I would throw in Cabrera as well, but the O's may want a little too much in return for him.

Jason: "Speaking of the trade value of Ruiz, what's the trade value of Marson? If you read Beerleaguer, you could deal him straight up for Sabathia ..."

Not if you read Clout's comments on Beerleaguer!

BB: Except that I genuinely doubt that anyone who really has his act together is actually going to be traded. And, in the off chance that they are, I genuinely doubt that we would have the prospects to get that pitcher.

Fact is, our choices are probably going to be limited to the Bronson Arroyos and Jarrod Washburns of the league. That being the case, I would prefer them to set their sights on someone with upside. Arroyo does come with a risk, because of his contract. But how big is the risk, when you consider that, come next year, the Phillies are going to have to replace at least one, if not two, starters? We know the Phillies aren't going to go after CC Sabathia caliber starters, which means they're going to be targeting middling starters like Adam Eaton. Surely the salary risk with Arroyo is no greater than the salary risk with this type of FA pitcher.

BedBeard: I'm with you. Stark acts like giving up Carrasco & Bastardo would be giving up the family jewels. I don't think so.

"I am much more interested in building a system that could put us as *possible* contenders for several years, than to blow the whole wad on one year, and have to suffer throgh 5-6 years of terrible baseball."

Well, thats really the crux of the matter. But having watched the Eagles "contend" for five or six years w/o winning it all, and having already suffered through so much bad Philly baseball in my lifetime, I am sort of okay with selling the farm to try and win it now.

Kris Benson's line tonight at Single A Clearwater:

1 IP, 3 hits, 3 homers allowed, 2 walks, 5 runs, all earned.

Can we stop writing posts about him now?

Jayson Werth is going to be at VF outlet in Wyomissing on Saturday. Anyone going for autographs?

Was Benson doing his Myers impression?

I say trade the farm system for a top notch starter if you can. I'm not talking about a good #3 guy, I'm talking about a Sabathia, Harden type. You have to go for it now. This is a team with two former MVPs, a MVP contender this year, a bonafide ace, an all star stopper, an overachieving bullpen, good role players and a nice right handed power hitter in LF. The opportunity to win is now. The one thing this team is lacking is that #2 starter. Right now we will get killed in a 7 game series since most teams will have 2-3 good starters to throw at us. Lets say we face Arizona in a 7 game series and they throw Webb, Haren and Johnson at us or Boston and they have Beckett, Dice-K, Lester and Schilling. What are we going to counter with? Hamels and then pray that everyone else has good nights. This is our chance to win and its time to go for it. It is very realistic that we will lose Lidge, Burrell and Gordon to free agency and then trade Howard this off season. All the parts are in place now so its time to throw caution to the wind and go for it. The city is behind this team and we want a parade dammit. You have rare opportunities when this kind of team is all in place so you have to take advantage of it now. Making the playoffs isn't good enough this year. We need to win it all while we have this team.

How about that Russell Branyan? He hit his tenth home run of the season tonight, making it three straight games with a homer and eight in the month of June.

Jason: Yet another thirdbase option from last off-season.

The Indians acquired Sal Fasano today. There goes our chance to deal Marson for Sabathia.

If Fasano still has some degree of value, Jaramillo's gotta be able to get you something in return.

i think it's important for the phils to stay positive. but man, when you don't cash in breaks like the phils have been getting (STL playing without Pujols, Isringhausen or Carpenter, or the BoSox missing Papi, Youk, Dice-K and a bunch of others) it's disheartening no matter how you look at it.

bedard might be had on the cheap (relatively speaking of course) because the new GM may not feel that attached to the deal that got Bedard to SEA.


BB: He could probably get you Sal Fasano

Some cheesesteaks, a few cases of Tasty Cakes and, some scrapple would get you Fasano.

Len39-Completely. If the Phils can get a Sabathia or a Harden, then you go all in if the current team stays as relatively healthy as is. Basically, this team has a window of being pretty damn competitive until 2010. After that, this ownership either needs to pony up the cash to keep the team's core or cut bait.

At the opposite end, don't see how trading for a guy like Washburn makes any sense.

In the end, I bet the Phils go the bullpen route and acquire another really decent arm. Probably would take a decent package but the bullpen looks like where this team will make its play if in the playoffs. Just hope the starting pitching is tolerable and the bullpen can take make it a 6 inning game.

According to phuturephillies, we are in competition with the Padres to sign pitcher Adis Portillo, a 6'3" 16 yr old that already throws between 90-93 and has a good feel for a curve. He's generally considered the second best latin pitcher available after the impressive Michel Inoa, who has limitless potential and is likely to be signed by the A's or Yankees for upwards of 4 million. Portillo should cost somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million. His command has been described in various articles as terrible and outstanding, so good luck trying to make sense of it. I've also read that he has tremendous poise and feel for pitching and that he gets scared on the mound so again, good luck making sense of it. Bottom line is that its good to see the phillies make an attempt to acquire some high end talent (though one could dream they make a run at Inoa). The only caution I would have is the last time we spent this kind of money in Latin America it was on C-Rod. And what about those 2 Korean pitchers...either way though, its their money and I think they should spend more so I can't complain. Seems like a good move, though reading the reports on Inoa make me wish they'd be even bolder, doubling the investment but getting a much greater prospect and ensuring a higher probability that the money spent will become a major leaguer, and a dominant one at that.

Gillick's proved to be at his best during the seasons, as opposed to the time in between. This, combined with the fact that it's being reported that they're looking at and inquiring about bigger names, leads me to believe something big is going to happen in 5-6 weeks. It's not an upgrade on Eaton, Myers, or Kendrick *specifically* that is needed, but one of those three, pick any you prefer, needs to be upgraded on in order for this team to make any kind of impact in a post-season series. Should be interesting to see who they come away with, because it's sounding like they're fairly determined to get an arm.

Not that either is likely, but would it be better for the phillies to trade for Sabathia or Harden? If we get Sabathia it should only be with the intention of signing him (which in of itself may or may not be such a good idea). If we signed him it would give us an outstanding rotation but we'd probably have to trade Howard (which in of itself also may or may not be a good idea). However, if we loaded up on young MLB ready talent from a Howard trade that included at least one good hitter and one good pitcher we would have an even stronger rotation but a much weaker offense as the loss of Howard cannot be understated. He is still by far the most important piece in the lineup. If he hits, the other team is helpless.

As for Harden, its obviously all about the injuries. Beane wants a ton for him. But Harden would probably be more likely to sign a team friendly deal, relative to the payday Sabathia is in line for. Hamels-Harden would be about the closest thing to Koufax-Drysdale you could hope for in today's world of 7-inning gems. That is too tempting not to consider, even if costs us some prospects we don't want to lose, like Marson, Taylor, Cardenas, Carrasco, and one of Happ, Outman, or Bastardo, which could be Oakland's starting point. Maybe we only offer 3 of the top 4. The indians, on the other hand, may be more inclined to take a mix of young vets and prospects. Vic has been mentioned in several mainstream writings as a potential target of the indians. Perhaps Myers could help solidify their bullpen. So maybe Cleveland would go for Myers, Vic, and either Cardenas or Carrasco. Would that be enough? too much? The phillies are in a better position to make a big move than they have been in a long time. Lets hope they at least consider knocking this one out of the park.

Just a little follow up, as if I haven't written enough, there have been rumblings that the phillies draft strategy belies a preperation of depleting the system in a trade. Also, if we trade Vic, Werth would be the starting CF. We've been mentioned in rumors for Ryan Freel. If we got him in a seperate deal we could likely trade Vic, as the dropoff would be neglible. We could also call up Golson for defense and DFA Taguchi.

Good morning.

Nothing to contribute to trade talk, but I sure would hate to see Vic go.

It's solstice today, the longest day of the year. Out here it began to get light a bit before 5, and there will still be a little light until 10 or so.

I hope the Phillies and all you Beerleaguers will have a good one. Maybe the time off will have freshened up the Phils, but of course Beerleaguer never sleeps...

Go Phils!

Bedard's problem is injuries, not a talent drop-off. He has hip problems, which is something that I think any team should be leery of trading for when it is a make or break situation.

Sabathia: he would be great, but would cost a ton. I don't see this as a realistic possibility.

Oswalt: I think he is done. I personally think Myers has more upside than Oswalt at this point. His physique is not suggestive of long term success for a power starting pitcher, and his stats this season have indicated as much.

A.J. Burnett: Best option in my book. The guy is a flamethrower (98 MPH). He has been down this year, but the Phils would only need him to get hot for the post-season (A la Marlins WS victory). He also has a devastating curveball and a wicked slider. Burnett, barrring, injury would be the cheapest option, and most conducive to the Phillies needs. Having a fireball RH starter is really what the Phillies lack in their rotation right now.

Arroyo: He never has been any more than a #3 starter (possibly 4 or 5). The only reason that he has been touted as a #2 is that he has been pitching for the Reds who, up until this season, were devoid of any decent starting pitching outside of Aaron Harang.

I wonder what Burnett would realistically cost. I do like the idea of having someone who throws gas in the rotation.

On another note, an unsigned Phillies draft pick who the "oxymoron" refused to pay over slot had this type of day in the best college summer baseball league in the country:


"PITCHING: Brandon Workman (Texas) struck out eight in six shutout innings in Wareham's win over Bourne."


Link here:

http://www.capecodonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/a
rticle?AID=/20080619/SPORTS/806190315


You can follow prospects and college players in the Cape league at

www.capecodonline.com

Grand Pappy Moyer announced at his charity event yesterday that this season will not be his last and that he loves playing baseball in Philly. That means the ball is now in Patty G's court to re-up the extreme veteran lefty.

Also, I did a Phlashback Phriday on my blog today about Lance Parrish. He was an Angel and a Phillie.

From what i've heard Workman had a pretty poor year for the Longhorns. That's a good start, though.

Has anyone heard any possibilities of skipping Myers in the rotation this time around? Or at least flipping Hamels and Myers so Hamels gets an extra start before the all star break? With the day off I though this would get some discussion, but I haven't heard anything.

Russell Branyan's streak will not continue. He is the Bobby Estalella of 3B. He gets really, really hot for a period of time and then pitchers remember the holes in his swing and he cools off.

This is for lekh and the numerous other Beerleaugers who've said that Golson should be called up. Please answer one of these two questions:

1. Do you think Golson is major league ready, including his bat? If so, please explain why.

2. If you don't think he's ready, why in the world would you want to interupt his development by bringing him up and having him sit on the bench?

Brandon Workman 2008 Longhorn statistics

ERA - 5.06
I.P. - 53.1
BB - 20
SO - 49
H - 58
BAA - .279

those are only current as of June 1.

Tough dilemma. One thought. If the FO is considering selling, as has been rumored, does that mean (1) they go for it all this year, hoping for deep playoffs and possible series appearance, thus creating more value? Or (2) do they figure on a more measured approach under the philosophy that a buyer would see more value in a team that had a two or three year window remaining.

Is a team that is right now, today, at its peak, but which has mortgaged its future, worth more than one that still needs some work but will be a legit contender for a while and can be improved?

Lakewood won 5-0.

* Julian Sampson, after reading my words of encouragement, tossed 6 shutout innings.


(phuturephillies.com)

-AJ Burnett makes around 45 million over the next 3 years, so how is he the cheapest option? Because Toronto wants to get rid of him? Every team he plays for is always trying to get rid of him. Doesn't that scare anyone? Great stuff, terrible attitude. How would he react to getting booed? I'm not sure I want to trade our best prospects just to find out.

-Bedard has the highest bust potential. I don't trust him, but if his price tag is relatively low, go for it. Last year was an aberration. He won't

-Bronson Arroyo I like, because he's a gutsy pitcher with a big curve. He's always been clutch, so I could see him pitching really well down the stretch. No, he's not a #2 pitcher, but I think he'd pitch as well as guys with 3x higher trade value. He's also fairly dependable, signed for a few years, and doesn't get hurt.

-Sabathia would be the kind of move that has ruined the Mets franchise. The Phils ownership must decide ahead of time whether they're willing to open their wallets and built a team that will contend for the next 5 years. If they aren't willing to increase payroll about 40-50 million dollars, they shouldn't even consider Sabathia. THINK LONG-TERM, PLEASE. We'd like to watch baseball beyond this year.

-Derek Lowe made sense before Kuroda and Penny(not to mention Jason Schmidt) got hurt. The Dodgers could still trade him, but I doubt the Phillies would give the Dodgers what they'd want. The Dodgers would love to get their hands on a slugger, and would probably overpay for one of ours. How about Burrell(+Myers if need be) for Lowe+Kemp/Ethier? I'm strongly in favor of keeping both Howard and Burrell for the forseeable future, but if the Phillies decided to cut payroll, the Dodgers might be their best possible trading partner. The LA Dodgers have unlimited funds, great prospects, expendable young position players and have desperately wanted a power hitter for years. They would probably give a substantial return for Howard,(or even...gasp! Utley), as in 5 very good young players: Loney, Broxton, Kemp, Elbert, Baez. Not suggesting we should do it, but the Dodgers would probably give us much better value, in a blockbuster trade, than the Yankees or Red Sox. Back to reality.

-Jarrod Washburn? If the Phillies are scouting Washburn, its probably with Bedard in mind. I'm all for buy low/sell high and think he could be a decent #4/#5 starter or lefty reliever in the National League, but he makes 9.75 million, so there has to be more to it. The Mariners probably want Bedard's suitors to take on an additional salary, like Washburn's or Beltre's. Since Beltre's salary is just absurd, the Phillies might consider Washburn as an alternative.

-Roy Oswalt, another "buy low" candidate. Despite his off year, I'm all for getting Oswalt. Ed Wade is familiar with our prospects, and will see value where other GMs don't. Oswalt's pitched better on the road all year, and I think he could rebound on a contending club. His velocity was down early this year, but has climbed back up. Unlike Burnett, Bedard or Sabathia, Oswalt is an intense competitor with pin-point control. For that reason, I'd consider him a better bet to sustain performance regardless of velocity.

My order of preference: Lowe, Bedard, and Oswalt. Forget Sabathia, Arroyo, and Washburn. Hopefully one of the first three listed end up here.

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EST. 2005

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