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Saturday, June 28, 2008

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Perhaps Chollie could send a complimentary bottle of scotch over to the Rangers clubhouse in honor of all of Padilla's contributions as a Phillie. That might give us a shot.

is it dollar shots night in Arlington?

From the pregame report:

ARLINGTON -- He left the Phillies in December 2005 as Vicente Padilla.

He faces them Saturday as Guillermo DeLaCruz, at least according to the nameplate above his locker at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

"One day in Spring Training, I told people, 'That's my new name,'" Padilla said, through an interpreter. "They put that name here. I keep it because I'm having better luck."

For a pitcher in the AL, Padilla has faced a weak range of teams. Here's his game log, the number of runs he gave up, and the team's league rank in RS (there are 16 teams in the NL and 14 in the AL):

SEA - 1 - 14
LAA - 4 - 11
TOR - 5 - 12
TOR - 1 - 12
DET - 7 - 5
MIN - 0 - 3

OAK - 3 - 9
SEA - 0 - 14
SEA - 6 - 14
HOU - 2 - 10
MIN - 3 - 3
TB - 5 - 7

TB - 3 - 7
KC - 4 - 13
ATL - 1 - 7
WAS - 3 - 16

So 7 of his 13 AL starts have come against the worst 4 run-scoring teams in the AL. And then he's faced WAS.

I know there's nothing to contrast this with here, but I'd guess that's one of the easier schedules, using this metric, you'd find to date.

Here's Hamels for contrast (who's faced WAS and SF twice):

WAS - 1 - 16
CIN - 2 - 11
CHC - 0 - 1
NYM - 5 - 6
MIL - 5 - 8
SD - 2 - 15

SF - 4 - 14
SF - 4 - 14
ATL - 0 - 7
WAS - 0 - 16
HOU - 6 - 10
FLA - 7 - 4

CIN - 0 - 11
FLA - 2 - 4
BOS - 2 - 2
LAA - 3 - 11

5 of his 14 NL starts against the worst 4 NL teams. But he's also faced the one of the top 5 scoring teams in either league 4 times (in 16 starts), while Padilla has faced one less.

Hamels may also have one of the easier logs of the Phils' starters since he missed PIT (3), STL (5), ATL (7), and ARI (9).

From a glance, it looks like Myers has had it the worst, although he missed BOS. Myers has faced every one of the top 10 RS teams in the NL except the Mets and MIL (and the Phils, of course.)

Anyone notice this from Zolecki (via MLBtraderumors.com) yet?

After his latest poor start, Brett Myers' future with the Phillies could be up in the air. When asked about Myers' job security, Manager Charlie Manuel told The Inquirer's Todd Zolecki: "Can I say his job is secure? I don't know what to say, if you want to know the truth. We'd have to find somebody to do his job first, I guess."

Since Myers was the starting pitcher beginning the season, and if the other teams keep the same starting pitchers in the beginning, myers will usually go against the other teams best pitchers. Definitely no excuse for Myers, but this usually with his lousy pitching gives us no chance to win.

fljerry - maybe, but that's not what I was evaluating. I was evaluating starters against the potency of the teams they've pitched against, not the quality of the opposing pitcher.

Yeah, Hamels will get more #2s against him and Myers will get more #1s, but I don't think opening day pitchers automatically face tougher offenses. Since we're playing two-four games series you'd think it would be equal, but it's not.

Padilla has faced much less potent offenses than Hamels who's faced much less potent offenses than Myers, the guy who starts just a day after him.

Sophist, did you see my post on the last thread? I crunched the numbers and, as everyone suspected, it looks like we have one of the most inconsistent offenses in baseball.

If there isn't a single pitcher in our minor league system that could can come up now to help us out in an emergency situation (and to me the Myers flame out qualifies as one), then the cupboard is even more bare than we thought. DL Myers and bring someone up. Exactly how many more hideous outings does this guy have to pitch before you make a move. Manuel says he doesn't know who would replace him? I don't care if you have to bring Wayne Twitchell out of mothballs. Get somebody. Now!

Tray - I didn't see it. I've been running errands all day. Thanks for the head's up.

Happ has retired the first nine in order for the Pigs so far. He's thrown 32 pitches and 24 for strikes. Let's hope he cranks up a good one tonight and gets the call to the show to take Myers turn on Thursday in Atlanta.

Thanks for the work, Tray. The comparison with FLA is illuminating.

I wonder if any of the earlier studies on the correlation between RS/RA and W-L record have looked not only at the aggregate runs but at these finer grained consistency questions.

My guess is that over the course of the season the inconsistency untangles itself. It's a long season. If they continue to score 6 or more runs than the Phils 5% more often, the difference between the RS for both teams will likely erase as the percentage of our total runs those 20-run games make up decreases.

Maybe we could take out the top 3 run totals and bottom three run totals from each team and then see how they rank.

It's a joke if Happ doesn't replace Myers in the rotation. I have no idea what else Happ has to do to get his shot. And even if they feel Myers can still help them in the rotation, a 15 day DL break certainly won't hurt him.

Ah, ha. Howard is 5th behind Burrell. Otherwise, regular order. Only took 1/2 of the season.

Take out three Phils' shut-outs and 55 runs from the three top games. Take out three Marlins' shut-outs and 31 runs from their three best games.

Phils: 356 RS, 337 RA in 75 G
Marlins: 348 RS, 394 RA in 73 G

Phils: 4.75 R/G
Marlins: 4.77 R/G

X W-L based on above

Phils: .527 (85-77)
Marlins: .438 (71-91)

I take that back, Werth instead of Jenkins against a righty. Very out of character for Cholly.

For those who get channel 69 on their cable, the Iron Pigs game is on. Happ has been superb. First-pitch strikes to 12 of the first 13 batters he faced. His fastball is in the 90-92 range, but it's clearly his out pitch because it has movement and he locates it well. Most of his strikes are coming on fastballs on the outside corner.

He's got a half-azzed changeup that he throws now and again, including a couple for strikes, but his game is getting ahead on well-placed fastballs and then throwing pitches just out of the zone, including the changeup. I haven't seen him throw a curve yet.

He is showing an ability to locate the fatball low on the outside corner, then high outside just out of the zone. When he gets 2 strikes on a righty he comes inside on the hands. I've also seen him move the ball up and in and down and in. His ability to locate is excellent.

I am impressed.

Of course, the Phils deserve to have those 55 runs included as much as the Marlins deserve to have their 31. The Rockies are bad - as is HOU pitching - but no one else, I don't think, scored that many runs against them.

If I had to bet which team scores more runs total this season, or even which team will score more runs in the second half, I'd put my money on the Phils.

The book I've always heard on Happ is that he has 4 good pitches but not one single dominant pitch...thus he wouldn't translate to the majors very well. Of course the Phillies would have more luck pulling one lucky fan out of the stands for the start instead of going with Myers this season.

Vicente's location has been very good tonight. And he's looking quite trim.

Werth instead of Jenkins against a righty...that pretty much sums up the month of June for Geoff Jenkins, eh?

At least Rollins is out of the 3 hole...he's been killing them there this week.

I'm surprised the Phils haven't tweaked Happ's mechanics so as to lose his high leg kick while in the stretch. Seems like a big ol' greenlight for big leaguers to run.

NEPhan: I've only seen him throw the fastball and changeup so far. I wouldn't call either of them dominant, but his location is just so good, the hitter can't do much with them. I could see where he'd be very frustrating to hit against. He's just moving the damn ball all over the place.

Crap...the more sober he is the worse off the Phillies would be. Padilla always pissed me off as a Phillie because he had tons of ability but his personal issues and inconsistencies made us trade him for nothing in returnh.

The good:The Mets Lose. The Bad:There is a threat of rain. I'd hate to see a wasted Hamels start. The Ugly:Wheels claims Padilla throws a slurve.

The only thing keeping Happ in the minors is the size of Myers paycheck. I don't know what the excuse for Jaramillo could be.

Through 5 IP now. Happ has thrown 61 pitches, 47 of them for strikes. Cholly should've assigned Myers to watch this game.

Thanks Cole...game over. Nobody else gives a shitt, so why should he right?!

An early hole. How unusual.

This Rangers team looks a lot like what we expect from the Phils from year-to-year since 2003 (with the strange mild surprise of this year):

Offensively: 2nd in AVG, 1st in Runs, 2nd in OBP, 1st in SLG, 1st in OPS, 9th in SB.

Pitching: 14th in ERA, 13th in BAA, 14th in OPS, 14th in WHIP, 11th in QS

fuzzy: I noticed that too. Of course the fact he's a lefty makes it tougher for base stealers.

****NEPhan: I've only seen him throw the fastball and changeup so far. I wouldn't call either of them dominant, but his location is just so good, the hitter can't do much with them.****

That's his MO...location location location. His fastball is supposed to have some good deception becuase of his delievery (that leg kick probably) If he can do that, he can succeed. He supposedly throw a slider and a curve as well but neither are good.

F*CK...come on Cole you're all we;ve got in the rotation.

GM - The Phils went down without a run in the first yesterday, and still managed to score 7 runs in the game.

Syracuse is a pretty good team also, so it's not like he's facing a lousy team like, well, the Iron Pigs.

clout:Thanks for the Iron Pigs heads up. At least I'll have something to watch.

I should probably switch to the Iron Pigs game blog. Is there one?

**** I don't know what the excuse for Jaramillo could be.****

The fact that he's no better than Ruiz in any aspect of the game and it doesn't make sense to change catchers mid stream during a season if you don't have too. He's purely tradebait at this point.

> Of course the fact he's a lefty makes it tougher for base stealers.

Good point. Maybe his leg kick is not as much of a liability as I imagine it to be.

Sophist- no offense, but Gabbard doesn't hold a candle to Padilla. The Phils could very well tee of on Vicente now, but my guess is that they won't and even if they do Hamels pitching like crap (he's allowed to after all, because they don't score enough for him even when he pitches well). I have a very negative outlook, but it's warranted.

Oh and the team the Phils face tonight may be even better than those rankings show: Chris Davis made his first start of the year yesterday.

fuzzy: I'm old enough to have seen Juan Marichal in his prime. His leg kick was unbelievable and batters couldn't pick up his pitches at all. When someone got on, he had a little slide step that kept the speed guys honest.

I think anyone who's been a Phillies fan for any length of time tends to have a very negative pessamistic outlook...its just part of growing up in Philly I think.

Yeah, Gabbard's not very good. Padilla isn't as good as his numbers this year, though.

PLus, we've seen Hamels pitch 7 or 8 perfect innings along with one bad one a few times this season. Those could easily be the only runs they score.

I don't have a problem with your negative outlook, but "game over" is a bit much.

what's the over under on the Feliz GIDP to kill the rally?

Holy Heckamecca, a hit with the bases loaded. Was that the Phils?

I mean Werth not Feliz...typed the wrong name.

Sophist- "game over" was how I felt before the game even started, so it's not Cole's fault, it's the entire team's fault.

This looks like the Vicente Padilla I remember (not so fondly).

Carson - you're just a fairly unreasonable person then, but that's your choice. Not that the Phils haven't deserved it.

And now it's 3-2 Phils.

The scrubs come through

One of the things to like most about Hamels is that he occasionally has a rough start but often settles down to pitch well. As I write this we take the lead. I can't believe Coste swung at that pitch.

The Phils have had some weak/lucky hits this inning, but after these past two weeks let's just call it reversion to the lucky mean.

What's Coste swinging at?

Somehow Coste missed a pitch that passed over the bill of his helmet.

"fairly unreasonable person"...not sure how to take that statement. Is that ment to be an insult?

I believe Padilla's eyes are spinning counter-clockwise in his head. He looks like a mental patient.

Are we at the point where bashing the reigning MVP is allowed? He's in quite the slump the last few weeks.

Just a joke, Carson. I don't know you at all (outside of BL), so I wouldn't take the liberty to insult you personally.

But saying a game is over, especially one pitched by Hamels, before it starts is an unreasonable thing to do.

But I sympathize with your Phillies pessimism.

---

Rollins is having yet another unlucky streak this season. His BABIP this week is .158.

Bashing of J-Roll and Howard is definetely allowed. They've both had great seasons in the past, but are not doing what is needed this year and since this year is what currently matters...bash away.

I love how we have the guy hitting .311 in the 9 hole.

Ranger right-handed lineup not nearly as impressive as the one they put out there last night.

Sophist- I'm choosing not to take it as an insult. I wish I had a better feeling about this team right now, but that's all been flushed down the toilet with every mounting loss. A good 3 game win streak would even me out just fine though.

Just keep Jimmy's BABIP in mind.

Wow, anyone else see the radar map near Arlington at the moment?

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/
map/interactive/37121:20

Why did they start this game?

Rollins is batting something like .216 for June...its been a very rough stretch...moving him to the 3 hole this past week was quite perplexing.

Happ has succeeded at literally every minor league level and, pitching at the highest level of the minors, is having one of the best seasons in the entire Phillies organization. Let me put it succinctly: if the Phillies don't think he has shown enough to warrant a shot at Myers' job, they have their heads up their asses. This is basically a reprise of last year's Chris Coste/Rod Barajas scenario, where they signed Barajas and kept himm on the roster for about the first 3 or 4 months of the season, when everyone except the people who run the Phillies realized that they had a better player at Triple A.

I'm going to go drink some beer, hopefully when I return a win is secured. If not, I'll just drink more...Yuengling Premium on tap baby!

1. Nice inning by Cole.

2. Bad inning for Iron Pig defense.

3. Is anyone else the slightest bit disturbed by the thumbnail image used in the Yardbarker "sports injuries" link?

good choice carson

To BAP: Hopefully they reach an epiphany and DL Myers tomorrow and bring up Happ for his next start. I don't think I can handle another pathetic Myers outing and his required temper tantrum after getting pulled.

In the last 28 days, Jimmy's BABIP is .214.

His career BABIP is .298.

Carson:Very disturbed.

Is a cycle just as natural if it goes HR-3B-2B-1B as 1B-2B-3B-HR?

About time!

What a bolt. Why do I forsee us taking the lead and then the game gets rained out.

I cant believe this game is prob going to get rained out

That's my second favorite Chase homer this year, only to his critical homer(s) against the Mets on ESPN.

The radar looks pretty nasty for the stadium...what a waste.

Off the wall comment: the Phillies NEED to resign Burrell...his OBP alone makes him the most valuable righthanded bat on the market this offseason.

I know predict a tornado and a plague of locusts. That was massive.

I chose Wedding Crashers over the Phils tonight. First time in my life, literally, that I've chosen some other sort of TV over the Phils when I have a free night to watch. I justify it by comparing it to a player trying to break a slump by wearing a black thong, a la Giambi. So far so good.

Oh, and I also picked up Padilla and started him in my FL out of spite. The equivalent of a reverse jinx.

Think we can have 'em just bunt back to the pitcher until the game becomes official?

The correction in Padilla's ERA has come quickly. Now only if the game can be official...

Well, it is an hour earlier in Dallas as well, so if it does rain they have more time than you'd think to delay it.

But it's not raining yet.

Great...just waiting for the rain to come now...no way this game becomes official.

Pete Happy grounded into the DP in hopes of accelerating the game's pace to make it official.

Saltalamacchia could've beated Feliz down to first on that DP ball...

beated? *sigh*

About every 4 or 5 days, Howard has a nice game -- invariably against an ineffective pitcher who everyone else is pounding too. Naturally, he'll go 0 for his next 15, starting tomorrow.

Pedro has to pick up the slack for Ruiz tonight.

Yeah, I was certainly rooting for that GIDP.

That's the first time Feliz made me happy with one of his patented GIDPs. keep that game moving PEdro.

Pete Happy an homage to Chooch

Nice inning Cole.

9 outs to go, and 6 belong to the Phils, til it's official.

Happ's line so far:

7 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K's


And, as usual, no run support.

God I love to watch this kid pitch.

Looks like a good night for the Phils to gain on everyone else too.

Braves lost, Mets lost, and the Marlins are down 6-1 to the DBacks with Webb on the mound.

A large thunderstorm approaching tthe stadium according to doppler.

Jimmy showed an appalling lack of patience considering how wild Padilla is right now.

Is Padilla doing this on purpose?

I'm hoping for a rain delay at the worst. It's only 7:04 in Dallas.

can't understand why Rollins can't bunt?

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