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Saturday, May 24, 2008

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Jason: Looking at Allentown, there's not a single position player on the roster worthy of a call-up. Not one.

Reading offers more potential. Golson's numbers are a bit misleading. He's still striking out at an enormous rate and his K/BB ratio (the single best predictor of MLB success for a hitter) remains atrocious. Slayden's K rate bothers me too, although he's a better bet than Golson at the moment. The 2 guys whose stats suggest they could hit now at the major league level are Marson and Donald. But both have defense issues and neither plays OF.

Bottom line: The Phillies have no major-league ready outfielder in their system right now. If Werth is out for any length of time, they will need to make a trade for an outfielder.

clout: is the bit about k/bb predicting major league success just an opinion, conventional wisdom, or a sabermetric thing? I seem to remember a bill James article saying that the best predictor of any major league star was the corresponding park adjusted minor league stat.

Anyone have an idea how Chris Snelling is rehaping?

Embarrassing (again).

I am serious when I say, that I would rather have Eaton or Hamels up there hitting, then that tool Bohn.

It was bad enough they promoted the guy ONCE. Now, they do it again? If you are hitting .160, you probably ought to be worried about getting released, and not packing your bags to suit up for the defending NL East champions.

Why not bring Brandon Watson up from AAA? He is hitting .300 He has some major league experience. He can play a decent CF (probably better than Taguchi can).

And, what's the deal with the "40 man" anyway? The Phils are short a few on that 40 man roster. Why not promote a Watson or a Golson, and put him on the 40 man roster? Heck, you just flat out dump Bohn off of it, and you would still be at the same number of players. Is it a financial thing? Most other clubs are at the 40 man limit.

I just don't get this organization sometimes. I think the only organization in baseball Bohn gets "promoted" to the big leagues with, is this one.

This is definitely a loss. I am concerned that the Phillies will let Burrell go and count on Werth and Victorino to start next year. Are either of these guys durable enough to play a full season?

http://myteamrivals.typepad.com/phightin_phils_phorum

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scary thing is, Cholly will use this guy just about every game.

Watson should be the call-up.

What IS the deal with Snelling...and Rosario?

I think Bohn's numbers may be a little decieving. The beginning of the year everyone at Lehigh Valley couldn't hit...they had a sub .200 team average for a long time. Lately they have been turning it around and actually look like they deserve to be getting paid to play basebal...maybe not at the major league level but at least looking like professionals. But I will agree Watson does look like a better promotion then Bohn.

Why not Watson? He's a good organizational kind of guy afterall. What is Pat's obsession with Bohn?

I agree with NOT bringing up Golson...his K rate screams he is not ready...although he has really really cut that down in his past 50 ABs or so.

Clout: Agreed outfield doesn't look so hot anywhere in the chain and I don't think Brandon Watson is the guy either. Would it have been better to promote someone like Donald and just roll with what they have in OF, keeping in mind Bruntlett and Dobbs can also play there? Wouldn't hurt to give Donald a little audition like they did with Harman. Who knows - maybe he gets a couple key hits and improves his trade value.

To Clout: Pat won't make a trade...at least not a legit one to fill a temp. OF spot in his eyes.

****Would it have been better to promote someone like Donald and just roll with what they have in OF, keeping in mind Bruntlett and Dobbs can also play there?****

Might have made sense but all 4 infielders are clicking right now..even Feliz so he wouldn't get much if any playing time. If Feliz wasn't hitting then maybe he could get some reps in but with Feliz actually hitting fairly well it doesn't make much sense to sit him for a rookie who is also worse defensively.

Slocs mentioned in the last thread that now is the time to trade Vic. This incident clearly shows that is not the case. If Vic were gone and no competent OF came in return, we'd be looking at an everyday OF of Burrell/Taguchi/Jenkins with Dobbs and Bruntlett (and Bohner too I guess) sprinkled in. Not a good situation.

The Phils simply don't have the OF depth at the moment to dump Vic. If it's something they want to explore in the offseason, that's fine but they may need to overhaul the entire OF at that point anyway depending on what happens with Burrell.

I smell Kenny Lofton waiting in the wings if Werth is out for an extended time...


...maybe he wouldnt' be a cancer this time.

Jason: Donald would be my choice too, although, like Watson, he'd have to be added to the 40-man roster, which starts his arbitration clock ticking. At the very least he'd be a decent PH off the bench and getting his feet wet isn't a bad idea.

The Phillies have 4 openings on the 40-man roster.

Well, I just woke up and my weekend is already off to a bad start. Calling up T.J. Bohn in late May is absolutely disgusting. It's the move of an organization that has many other agendas besides winning. With T.J. Bohn and a washed-up So Taguchi, this is the worst collection of backup outfielders of any team in the major leagues -- and there isn't a close second.

Slayden or Watson would have made way more sense. So would Javon Moran, who, in nearly 2000 minor league ABs, has a .297 average and a .353 OBP. And so would Jason Donald. With Bruntlett capable of playing the OF, there was no urgency that the call-up be an outfielder.

I agree with the sentiment they should have probably just called up the best player and not worried about it being an outfielder. With Dobbs and Bruntlett capable of loggging some innings in the corner spots, you already have six people capable of playing OF. And I'm pretty sure Coste spent some time in the corner spots in the minors as well so if you exhaust the bench that's another guy who you could probably throw out in left for a couple innings in a pinch.

erich: Those two notions (K/BB ratio and park adjusted minor league stats) aren't contradictory. John Sickels thinks of all the minor league stats K/BB is most predictive. Obviously you have to look at the whole picture, but if you were to rank minor league stats, he'd rank that as most important.

Of course, none of these is remotely a sure thing. I always think of Brian Hunter, whose park-adjusted minor league stats AND his BB/K ratio screamed that he'd be a very good everyday player at least and possibly a star. The dropoff between his minor league and major league stats was breathtaking. He seemed to lose all sense of the strike zone in the majors, then get it back whenever he was sent down. He wound up being a well-below-average player.

NE: The Phillies won't pay Lofton what he'd require, and he doesn't really fit the bill. Burrell & Vic can play every day but Jenkins is hapless against left-handers. So what the Phillies need is a right-handed bat to start when Jenkins doesn't. Given his performance to date, do you really want So Taguchi as the other end of the platoon? That's what you're going to get for the next 2 weeks.

This is a real blow. Given the Phils' BS translator on the extent of injury (initially he was "day to day") I am willing to bet that Werth won't be back until the end of June. Say June 20th or 21st?

Kind of curious not a peep about Snelling. Must be really hurt to not even get a mention.

The one thing I hope is that Cholly doesn't insist on pulling Burrell from games in the 8th inning and inserting Bohn.

Said yesterday but Taguchi has a real opportunity here after being buried on the bench since Victorino came back.

If Taguchi doesn't start playing more consistent defense and at least hitting .250 or so, my money says he will be released when Werth comes off the DL.

Fernando Tatis homered for the Mets last night. Shows how much depth they have at the moment.

Credit has to be given to Gillick for filling out a capable bench but he also has to take some heat for not signing a single capable roster player at Allentown.

Saw the R-Phils play twice this week while I was home visiting my parents and I was not impressed either. If this team represents the creme of the talent crop in the Phils' system, they are going to be very hard pressed to get any help from their farm system this year and next year too.

MG: Agreed that Taguchi has been irrelevant and has a chance here to get some more playing time and finally show something.

But if he doesn't when Werth comes back do you really release So and keep Bohn on the roster? I think you're probably better off burying Taguchi back on the bench and letting him play D for Burrell once in awhile.

The other option of course is that maybe a month from now they think someone like Golson or Slayden will be ready for a look. Maybe they just want to get those guys another month's worth of minor league ABs. Hard to say.

At least Bohn has better facial hair than Werth...

AAA doesn't really represent the creme of the crop in minor league ball much, anymore. AA does. However, you're right, Allentown is terrible.

Had Golson been pitch running rather than Bruntlett=tie game. Of the top 10 in EL hitting Marson is second at .344 and leads with a .457 OPS. Golson is 10th at .320 with a .356 OPS.

you might as well give Golson a shot to see what he can do at MLB level. He's only gonna get a handful of AB's at best and can be used for running and defense in late game situations. It's similiar to the call up of Michael Bourn a couple years ago.

Not bringing up someone who isn't already on the 40-man makes complete sense from a baseball and business perspective. None of the other guys are major-league ready, they SHOULD be playing everyday and none are going to do enough over what Bohn would do over a two week period. We have four(ish) OFs so unless one or two are out for the season, why waste an option/arb year on a guy who isn't going to play much anwyay when you dont need to here in May?

That being said, I would have opted for Snelling and yes, having a horrible AAA team/roster is still Gillick's fault.

Nick:

1. Snelling is injured.

2. Bohn is hitting .167 at AAA. And you think these other guys won't do much better than him?

3. What evidence is there that Donald, Slayden, Moran or even Watson are "not major league ready?" They're all playing at high levels of the minors & they're all playing well at that level.

The Phillies have reasoned that it's better to call up a completely useless player than one who might contribute, since the completely useless player can just be waived before he becomes arbitration eligible. That's a bizarre line of reasoning for a team that is supposed to be a playoff contender.

Bohn was coaching first base for the ironpigs last night i guess because he probably already knew he was being called up.......but this is the best the phils can do?

Great point, Dull. I truly don't see what it could hurt to give Golson a taste of the bigs for two weeks, get him into a few games late, use him as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement. Werth comes back, Golson goes back to playing every day in Reading. This is the conservative, cautious approach, whereas the main point should be, **who can best help this team right now**? How the hell does it help this team to have a .160 AAA hitter with middling peripheral skills instead?

They did get Iguchi last year which was a great acquisition, so maybe they'll surprise us and bring in someone werthwhile.

RSB and the others who think Golson is ready for the majors:

You need to take a deeper look at his stats. He strikes out once every 3.4 ABs. His K/BB ratio is 5/1. He would be destroyed at the major league level. He has shown some progress this season and ought to continue playing every day trying to develop better plate judgment. Bringing him up now is a terrible idea as it will take away playing time, it won't help the big club and it could undermine his confidence.

The comparison to Bourn works in terms of speed and defense, but offensively, there is no comparison at all. Bourn's minor league BA and OB were far superior and his SLG was just a bit lower, which is hard to believe since Bourn is devoid of power. And Bourn's K/BB was 2/1 instead of 5/1.

JD: I like that all of your posts are always optimistic and supportive of the team and its management. It's good balance. I get the feeling the Phils could run off 10 straight losses and you'd be posting about how well some of the guys are doing.

Clout, if I haven't given up on this team by now, I probably never will, so I might as well find something positive. However, if they were in last place 20 games behind, I may not be as charitable, but you're probably right. Anyway, I find it impossible to root for any other team.

clout: I *don't* think Golson is ready for the majors, as a hitter. But as someone who could play serve as a better pinch-runner and defensive replacement than any other option presently on the roster, I don't see what it hurts to take 2 weeks away from Golson's minor-league development. It would give Golson an early taste of major-league atmosphere, which also can't hurt anything.

I sure hope Charlie doesn't bring bohn into EVERY SINGLE FREAKING GAME this time around! His defense was suspect then, and his hitting doesn't inspire much confidence now. Bottom line, the Phils need to leave Burrell in games. Bohn shouldn't be starting in AAA, let alone being a bench player in the Majors. I agree with Clout that Golson should have gotten the nod for defense and baserunning purposes. It's really pathetic that Bohn is the best option in their minds right now... Heaven forbid they swing a trade for some minor league depth...

Bohn- shouldn't be on a MLB roster.

Taguchi- worthless thus far.

Condrey- give a 2nd lefty a chance out of the pen instead.

Madson- I hate him!

I'd rather see Watson than Bohn and I don't see why the Phillies just add Watson to the 40 man roster. This isn't like bringing up a prospect Golson or Donald or Marson who are good but still need time to develop. Bohn shouldn't even be on a AAA team let alone a 40 man roster. Taguchi may actually play better with some more playing time. He had a bad start, but he's a better player than this.

Craig Breslow, a left from the Indians bullpen has been DFA'd. I would like the see the Phillies get him, hopefully with him becoming a free agent instead of having to make a trade. Brandon Medders has also been DFA'd and might be worth looking into. He is a righty and has some command issues, but is younger and has better numbers than Condrey.

philsphan: Either Breslow or Medders would be better options than Condrey. Breslow's walk rate is worrisome, but Medders is a no-brainer. I don't think he'll make it very far through waivers. He's a very solid middle reliever.

Must be nice to have so much depth that you can afford to DFA a guy like Medders.

Vicente Padilla is 6-2, 3.33 ERA.
Gavin Floyd is 4-3, 2.93 ERA.
Bobby Abreu is .292, 118 OPS+.

Who'd we get for them again? I forget.

"It's the move of an organization that has many other agendas besides winning."

If any of the beat writers had a set of nuts, they would ask Gillick or actually, one of the numbnuts like Montgomery how in the f-ing world you can justify calling this guy up. Twice. It's beyond a joke and a huge disservice to the fans. Phillies fans-true Philles fans-should have been angry the first time this tool got recalled. Now we should be furious.

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