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Wednesday, May 14, 2008


To me anyway, it seems painfully obvious that the Phillies are a starting pitcher away from having a very respectable chance of going deep in the postseason.

In a previous thread I proposed (as a debating point) Howard for Lincecum. Today on the announcers suggested similar (though less extreme) ideas, including the phils trading to san diego and.. seattle? for pitching.

anybody with some realistic ideas of who we might want to trade away and for what? if bruntlett can indeed play outfield if absolutely necessary (and, frankly, he's probably shown more than so so), the sacrifice might have to be werth.

If Myers doesn't turn it around, trade him to a team that wants him as a closer. Get a #3 starter in return.

If they wanted to trade Myers, now would be the time to do it. They could sell him pretty high to a team that needs a closer.

I interviewed Phuture Phillies during the offseason and he told me to keep and eye on Lou Marson. I saw Marson play a couple weeks ago and he is a very solid defensive catcher and his bat/batting eye is turning into an assett as well. I'd gladly take a Mike Lieberthal type career from him, albeit Marson is far better baserunner (thankfully!).

It's good, because Jason Jaramillo hasn't done squat, and he's too old and spent too much time in AAA for his .192 BA not to matter. It took him forever to start hitting last season, too. Have to assume his stock is dropping hard with Marson hitting.

I also saw Marson play and the guy definitely has a stick. Unlike Lieberthal, who tried to pull everything, Marson sprays the ball around the field and makes a lot of contact. I'm glad to see he's only 21 because he seems a little skinny, like Benito Santiago-thin. I hopes he's wirey strong or fills out a little.

A Mike Cameron type career for Golson? That strikes me as rather a stretch. Not only has Golson shown no indication of having Cameron's power, but he most certainly does not have -- and will very likely never have -- Cameron's plate discipline.

I can see Marson has a #2 type hitter in the bigs.

Here's one problem with trading Brett Myers to a team that needs a closer. Most teams that are willing to trade a #3 Starter don't really need to get a closer. Closers are a high priced commodity that you only need if you're a good ballclub. Rebuilding teams (teams with #3 starters to get rid of) don't need closers nor are they usually interested in them or Myer's high salary (over $7 million last I checked)

On Marson, I like Marson alot...I really hope they don't do something stupid and trade him for a rental player this summer in a weak attempt to make a playoff run. He could be really good for a long time and the Phillies will need a good starting catcher in a year or two when Ruiz enters his decline phase (downside of starting your big-league career at 27).

Golson really need to start taking walks or he won't amount to much in the majors.

Another Reading player who isn't mentioned, but who I rather like, is Jeremy Slayden. The Phillies don't seem to hold him in very high regard, perhaps because he's supposed to be horrible on defense. What he CAN do, however, is hit -- as he has demonstrated at every level. If you're an outfielder who can hit, you can help a major league team.


I agree that a little "thinking outside the box" is needed to get us another high-quality starter. Otherwise we're in the same position this year as last year, and next year and beyond, which is unacceptable given the talented young nucleus. What about, and this is just to get the conversation going, trading Howard to some down-and-out team for its best starter and a young picthing prospect or two? I know that with Howard slumping this wouldn't be the ideal time to trade him. This, of course, also means we would have to resign Burrell. What about moving Pat to first and playing a platoon of Dobbs and brunlett or even So in left, or play Dobbs at first. Dobbs can flatout hit and just needs a home in the field. Am I crazy?

What about trading Burrell for a serviceable starter since we're losing him next year, anyway? Put Werth in left and hope Jenkins gets his s&*t together.

Does Jaramillo have any trade value remaining?

Not ready to give up on Myers yet. Although if he doesn't appear able to get it together in his next couple of starts, something has to be done.

My gut tells me that we'll see the KK of the 1st inning last night more often than we'll see the KK who settled in after that. We can't afford too many question marks in the 3/4/5 spots in the rotation.

The Phils have enough offense to offset the loss of Howard. Look at what Werth and Dobbs would produce with more at-bats, which a trade of Howard would give them. The bench, though, would take a hit, but maybe one of those sad-sack teams like San Diego would want to give up an expensive aging veteran like Giles (he who has never swung at a pitch outside the strike zone) along with a top hurler.

Am I crazy?

J: I agree with you on Myers. I don't think his trade value has necessarily dropped this season because the Phils can still spin him as a closer. We might be able to get a decent starter in the last year of his contract, a Lohse-type.

I'm surprised more people haven't been talking about trading Myers. There seem to be a lot of Howard-haters on this site who resent him for irrational reasons. But with Myers, you have a guy who could really add more value to a different team, who doesn't fit into our plans if we can re-sign Lidge, and who is the sort of guy I (I won't speak for anyone else) don't feel proud of having on this team.

Drago sounds overly optimistic on all four. Golson in particular. I like b-a-p's holding up of Mike Cameron, who has only had one season with more hits than strike-outs (and a lifetime .340 OBP), as a disciplined hitter - when compared to Golson. Kinda shows the level to which we sink when talking about Greg "Please, Be a Fastball" Golson.

Why would you trade Myers for a Lohse type? the goal should be to get someone better for god's sake.

Drago is wildly optimistic on Golson and Donald. Donald just doesn't have the glove to be an everday SS at the major league level. He does have the bat to be a decent utility INF, however, the kind with just enough glove to fill in at 3-4 positions and be a nice bat off the bench. (I suspect he might even have enough glove to play 2B everyday for a mediocre team).

Golson is much improved but the correct comparison for his ceiling is Corey Patterson, not Mike Cameron and even that's a reach. Look at Cameron's stats at the same age. His K/BB was slightly under 2/1. Golson's is WORSE than 4/1. No comparison. Not even close. Not to mention Cameron played in The Show that year. And sharply improved his K/BB the following season.

Harman is another offensive-oriented utility guy, not as good as Donald.

Marson is the best of the bunch. I have read that there are questions about his defense, not so much his arm but his footwork and mechanics on both blocking balls and putting himself in a position to throw out base stealers. Perhaps Jason can get Drago to address these issues.

I did some thinking about the Galvis vs. Naylor prediction made by clout yesterday and, actually, I agree. Both are still remote, but age does make a difference. Because the system is working with more years, Galvis gets some time built into his "ifs." Like "Maybe if he can put on some muscle..." or "Maybe if he can learn to hit it in gaps..."

Naylor, four years older, doesn't have as much time to work on stuff. He needs to move up two levels and show the same kind of command and results. I still think it's a possibility, but, actually, more remote than the possibility that the 18 year old A+ level Galvis will learn to hit.

Being Australian, I think Naylor's age(going on 22) is a bit overblown. It's a fair point to an extent, but Aussies are a bit behind American kids on baseball development time.

BedBeard: True, but if he's still in Triple A at age 27, no major league team is going to look at him and say, oh, he's Aussie so we should ignore his age. His window is not big.

Andy: Excellent post and analysis.

bed's beard -
Yup. I understand that. My concern isn't what he's doing against the competition, it's about the amount of time he has left. He just started full A ball this year. If it takes him a year to get through A+, then AA, then AAA, he'll be 26 before his Major League debut. Other words - he has to skip a level sometime, the sooner the better.

I seem to remember that my first post about Naylor was something along the lines of "I'm interested in seeing what he'll do at Reading." (Because he could implode there, or he could dominate.) It would be nice if he worked through Clearwater in 2008 so he could come to PA by the beginning of next year.


I'm not a Howard hater by any stretch. But you're going to have to trade something of value to get the type of quality starter we desperately need in the rotation, and probably a lot of it. Howard is all of that wrapped in a 270-lb. package. What else would you do? Trade your gold-glove winning, MVP shortstop? Your second baseman who is perhaps the best hitter in baseball? Trading Werth or Victorino ain't gonna get it done.
I've seen the Phils management over the years identify their core nucleus as untouchable and protect them to a fault, while always coming up short in the pitching dept. All I'm saying is we have a player in Howard who we still hold all of the strings. He's not going anywhere without management's consent for the next three years after this season and he can't veto a trade. What's more, he is entering the prime of his career NOW and the years that would be tacked on to a long-term deal would most likely yield diminishing returns.
That all said, I wouldn't trade him for an Andy Ashby, Kevin Millwood-type short-sighted deal. It would have to be a gift that keeps on giving.

I too like Jeremy Slayden. Was he acquired from the Padres a few years back for Aquillno Lopez or is my memory not serving me correctly?

Jeremy Slayden was drafted by the Phillies in 05' I believe.

Been a big Golson fan and still am but was disappointed last night. He struck out in the top of the 9th just after Donald drove in Moran from first on a beautiful hit and run line drive double to left to take a 3-2 lead. Then in the bottom of the 9th Overholt gets a pop fly well behind second basecaught by Donald. Never have I seem a SS go so deep into center field to make a catch while the centerfielder stood around and moped. It was Golson's ball all the way.

The best place to look to trade Howard is the Angels. Garret Anderson is mid 30's, final year of a large contract and has been slowing down, especially his power numbers. Vlad has been in a power slump this season. They need a big bat in their lineup to compete with the Yanks, Bosox, Tigers and Rays(?). Howard can play first and dh for them.

The Phils ask for one of the three young starters (Santana, Weaver, Saunders), Kotchman to replace Howard at first, Brandon Wood to play third and either Dustin Mosely or another pitcher from the Angels farm to work the bullpen.

It's a win-win.

If the Angels weren't really willing to cough up a huge amount of money for AROD or any of the other sluggers they've pursued, why would they be willing to trade for Howard who's gonna want a HUGE contract in another year or so that will lock him up til his mid-30's.

The gave Torii Hunter $90+ million this year and Garry Matthews $50 million the previous year. I don't think they want to spend that kind of money on a 35-36 year old declining Garret Anderson. That money would go to Howard.

So what if Naylor does not get to the Phillies until he is 27, he would still have about 7 years.

Anderson is making 12.6 million this year and Howard will make around that or more next year even if he just goes to arbitration. Long term he's said to want something in the Miguel Cabrera range to start (7 years/150 million) discussions on a deal. As they just signed Hunter and Matthews to long term deals and I believe Vlad's contract is coming up soon (after 09 there is a club option at $15 million for next year but then they re-negotiate), I doubt they have the money to lock Howard up.

They also need to sign impending free agent K-Rod to a deal. And then there's their pitching to consider...that's more money in the near future that they'd have to dish out.

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