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Saturday, May 17, 2008


Besides Werth, Jamie Moyer and Chad Durbin obviously had good nights. Durbin continues to impress. He pitches in every situation they ask.

As I've said before...things seem to be shaping up nicely. We have some issues, but so does everyone. As Numan would say..."excellent...EXCELLENT"...

Sorry. Off topic, but I can't let it go.

Flipper, Yes I did look at Wes Helms' 2008 numbers, including, most critically, the number of ABs, which is just 69. The other stats I looked at were his career numbers, plus his age (32 this week). From that, I concluded that: (1) he is a decent hitter who had a bad 2007 season; (2) he is off to a bad start this year; (3) he is still relatively young; (4) his bad 2007 season was more likely an off year than a permanent decline; and (5) his 2008 numbers will probably look like his career norms.

Perhaps I'm wrong in my assessment, but his stats after 69 ABs certainly do not prove it.

I think Werth is the latest example of how the Phillies as an organization, dating back years, don't do a good enough job evalauting talent, especially their own. They signed Thome for millions when all they had to do was bring up Howard. They signed Jenkins when all they had to do was send Werth out there.

Forget about Werth, what has he done lately? Let's talk about how Feliz is singlehandedly holding this team back!!

But seriously, BAP, your budgetary argument is the best anti-Feliz argument I have heard, but with the bullpen pitching so well (so far), it holds less water for me. Of course, the 2nd year would have been better as an option, but they ate Helms this year, maybe they'll eat Feliz if necessary.

Getting rid of Helms was the smartest thing they've done...he was brutal last year and fans hated him. Even if he hits for his career average, he's never been a good defensive 3B. He's a converted 1B afterall. I don't know that that justifies the acquisition of Feliz at that price but options were somewhat limited without making a major trade with prospects we didn't have. Basically Gillick got to make the decision of do I want below average offense from Helms/Dobbs or from Feliz? Feliz being better with the glove I guess made his "Hey its only 8 million that we don't need"

Personally, looking at the numbers, I don't mind Werth as a full time player. He can handle it I think. It's not as if he bat .180 against rightys. He's actually had more ABs against rightys this year (65 vs. 53) than leftys and his numbers are holding up. He's above average defensively and he has very good power. Clearly something is going on with the defensive swithch of Vic and Werth and its not because Werth is a better CF than Victorino. Any rational look at the numbers will say he's not. They must be showcasing one of them for a trade or something. UC's explanations on the subject don't hold up.

Meanwhile, clout's boy ol' Wes, whether he hits or not this year, is simply not a MLB quality 3rd baseman. Everyone said so at the time of his signing, and it proved to be true. He is a first baseman or DH.

Morty: You and the other Feliz apologists keep missing the point: It has nothing to do with Helms, it has nothing to do with the absurd statement "Oh they don't need offense so Feliz is fine."

It has to do with this: Feliz hurts the team. The handful of runs he saves with his glove don't offset the bushel of runs he costs with his bat. And there were better alternatives in the offseason. That's the argument against Feliz in a nutshell, even beyond the money.

Clout, what were the better alternatives available as free agents?

I remember hearing Joe Crede (trade), Garrett Atkins (trade costly trade), Iguchi (not feasible,), Were there any others?


I've asked you multiple times now to correct my memory of you advocating for a Helm/Dobbs platoon instead of the mostly Feliz/ occasionally Dobbs set up we have now. Till now you have declined to do so. I'll offer you the opportunity again...

but his stats after 69 ABs certainly do not prove it.

Agreed, Helms' limited ABs supports a limited argument. But we already watched him suck for an entire year - producing at a rate not unlike his numbers this year, and at lower rate than Feliz has so far.

At some point, I don't get the focus on historical stats (maybe because I don't know that stats like you do?), and base my opinion more on what I can see just from watching games. I watched Helms suck in the field and at the plate for a year. I've watched Feliz play fairly well in the field and semi-suck at the plate so far; to me, that's an improvement.

As for the budgetary argument - agreed, locking a lot of money up in Feliz is questionable - but there are just so many unknowns in how the Phils will/won't have/haven't spent their money, it all seems very speculative. What I do know is that they spent some money now on what (I feel) improves the team's chances of getting more wins this year.

Back on topic, I'd say Werth is getting exactly the right amount of playing time at the moment. No need to change what is working. Rotating the hot hand of Werth, Vic and Jenkins through the CF and RF spots is a good problem to have, and would be even better if Jenkins began earning his contract.

You and the other Feliz apologists keep missing the point: It has nothing to do with Helms,..

Clout: The problem is that you can't make your argument in a vacuum. If you say that the plus/minus for Feliz is negative - OK. But if his plus/minus is less negative than the alternative, it's an improvement.

I think that, at least arguably, he's less of a drag on the team than what they had last year. What were the better options?

Sorry for dragging this off-topic. Clearly the Feliz discussion has been going here for a while, and I'm sure you'll have the opportunity to lampoon me for defending him later in the year.


It will never end. Apparently, the Phillies will go nowhere with a good field, no hit 3rd baseman who has moderate power. Never mind that the most credible alternative was a 3 way platoon between 2 no field, moderately good, at best, hitters, and another average fielding, mediocre, at best, hitting player: the troika of Helms/ Dobbs/ Brunlett. Your continued inability to understand this fact demonstrates your laughable abilities as a baseball observer.

flipper: You talk about stats as if they're some kind of academic mumbo-jumbo that is divorced from the real world. They are, in fact, a way of measuring what is happening in the real world. In the vast majority of instances, they are a lot more reliable than the "I know what I see" argument, since they are completely, 100% objective & they don't have selective memories. Our discussion about Pat Burrell is a perfect case in point. Another case in point are the stats clout posted the other day about Feliz's productivity in clutch situations. My "I know what I see" perception -- like that of many others -- was that Feliz has sucked this year but has come up big in a lot of critical situations. But his stats in the clutch irrefutably prove that I DON'T know what I see -- and neither does anybody else.

To be sure, there is no shortage of completely meaningless statistics out there, plus a whole lot of others which purport to be a lot more meaningful than they are (if you're reading, that caveat is directed at you, PhillR). But, used properly, stats are a lot more accurate gauge of a player's performance than one's subjective perception.

Great night for Werth, and he deserves credit, but I'm not ready to jump on the bandwagon. I'd like to see a couple of more months of this type of production at the plate before I'm convinced.

He certainly has come a long way from June 2007 (.235 BA) when he was consistently (and properly) referred to as "Werthless".

However, Jason, as you point out above, he is not a one dimentional player. He fields and steals, and can throw runners out. He rarely has a bad AB.

Yes, he is a nice COMPLIMENT to Burrell's RH bat. The Phillies have been vulnerable to LHP precisely because they haven't had TWO RH bats like Burrell and 'potential' Werth in quite some time. If the Phillies lose one of those bats in the offseason it will be the "same old, same old".

Also, Jason, I would change the language of your statement from "cannot keep Burrell" to "WON'T keep Burrell".

I have posted this before and I will do so again:

The window of opportunity for this team to win it all (I refer you to the extensive discussion previously engaged in on this blog) is the next couple of years.

That window, IMO, includes Pat Burrell, because he is the only proven RH power bat in the lineup. Jason Werth (still unproven, but the potential is there), if what we have seen this year is indeed the "real" Jason Werth, is a necessary compliment to Burrell.

In short, no Burrell weakens the lineup to the point that the window closes. Even if Werth proves to be an adquate "replacement" for Burrell's RH power, one RH power bat in the lineup has not been sufficient in the past, and will not be in the future. It's too easily pitched around by a LHSP.

The pitching has not been good enough to overcome, and it's unlikely this Phillies organization (don't have a good track record at the MLB level with pitching) will be able to put together a pitching staff good enough to overcome the lineup without Pat Burrell.

IMO, the Phillies need to bite the financial bullet for the next couple of years. The "businees model" that Dave Montgomery talked about at Drexel the other day won't win a WS.

Players win, not business models.

I agree, AWH. I'm a convert on Werth. I had no idea what Gilliick was doing when he signed Werth, but I'm happy to have been wrong. On offense, Werth is kind of like Pat Burrell light -- the key word being "light." Given 550 PAs, I think Werth would hit around .260, draw 75 walks, slug around .450, & hit 20 homers. Those aren't bad numbers, but they aren't Pat Burrell numbers. I am all for resigning Werth to play RF, but that's in addition to, not instead of, resigning Burrell to play left.


That's another myth: Howard was in Single A(?) striking out a ton, but showing power, when they signed Thome. I'm sure he was on our scout's radar, but I don't think anyone expected him to be what he's become

BB is right. Howard was nowhere near ready for the majors the year Thome was signed. If they projected Howard to be as good as he turned out, they could have signed someone to be a stopgap at 1B for a couple years instead of Thome. That would have taken some clairvoyance though, as Howard clearly far surpassed everyone's expectations his first two years in the league.

You can't make major league roster decisions based on a guy's performance in the Florida State League.

My issue with the attacks on Feliz is that it seems like they have been going on since the season started, and even before. All of the exacting science of the stats notwithstanding, there is also a human element here. If he ends the season with the numbers he has now, ok, then he can join the long list of 3rd basemen that Phillies fans love. But I would give the guy a change to adjust to playing with a new team in a new situation.

you people bitch and complain about everything. enjoy the season.


People are so dug in to their position regarding Feliz, it's comical. Almost seems that some don't want him to peform well and others have their head in the sand that he's not going to have a career year here b/c of CPB/great lineup around him.

BB- the problem people have is not so much his average or home run percentages (either of which might be helped by CBP or the line-up around him.) It is the other stats that give a bigger picture to his plate approach that we don't like: the horrific OBP and the number of pitches per at-bat he sees. Both are very low, and neither will be helped by a change of team. And I don't know if I've seen a specific stat on this, but boy does he enjoy grounding into double plays.

Bap, at some point I think you've got to just conclude that Helms is washed up. Some players go downhill at an earlier age than others. Look at Jason Kendall, or Richie Sexson or Jose Vidro or Andruw Jones. It's not as if he's just hitting the ball at people or in a bad slump, his bat speed has gone way down. As for Feliz, I think all parties would agree that Crede's a better player (though his 2007 was awful) but he had major back problems, leading many scouts to wonder whether he'd come back with diminished range, cost more, and Kenny Williams's asking price was pretty high. Reportedly he wouldn't do a deal with the Giants because they wouldn't give him Noah Lowry. Then there were Wigginton and Ensberg - neither one's hitting at all. Clout mentioned Cantu a little while ago, and he's hitting a little more than Feliz, but he's not nearly as good defensively. So who should we have signed? Clout says he costs us "a bushel of runs with his bat," but for that to be true, there's got to be some third baseman out there whom we could have signed who's producing a bushel-full of runs more than Feliz. Who is this man?

Beard, I totally agree. I am old enough to remember Schmidt's first year in Philly (and no, I'm not comparing Feliz to Schmidt!) and a lot of fans thought his career was over before it began, and that even though he was arguably one of the best 3rd baseman ever, the fans always had problems with him (I won't even go into Dick Allen). After all the comments made about Helms/Nunez last season, I would have thought that fans would have given Feliz a chance. Wrong again!

And while i'm on my tangent, PhuturePhillies website moderator sums up the Savery situation the best:

[phuturephillies Says:
May 17, 2008 at 2:36 pm

If there’s one thing I’ve learned since I started following the minors is that you shouldn’t get too excited or too down on a guy over one month’s worth of action. Everyone was ready to send Bastardo into the Phillies rotation, and he’s come back down to Earth a bit in Reading. Everyone needs to relax. To puff out your chest and say “I told you he was overrated” on May 16th, in his first full season, is about as shortsighted as it gets.]

morty: Your obsession with Helms causes you to be incapable of understanding English. This is the 5th time I've answered your question: Neither I nor anyone else advocated bringing back Helms. We advocated for an upgrade. Among the names I mentioned in the offseason were Mike Lowell, a free agent, Joe Crede, who was shopped by the Sox, Morgan Ensberg, a free agent, among others. The Marlins signed Jorge Cantu for one third the contract Feliz is getting. There were alternatives. Feliz was the WORST possible option. But now that he's here, he should be in a straight platoon with Dobbs.

Honestly, I've never seen a player as bad as this get so much knee-jerk support from the likes of you, Jack, tray and others. Burrell never got one-tenth this support when he was slumping last season. The man-crush on Feliz by you guys is one of the great mysteries of Beerleaguer.

They did offer 4 years and 50 million dollars to a 34 year old for 3b, pretty much going against their long term/age theory in signing people. So looking at that, it seemed the Phillies were doing whatever it took to get a good 3b. Of course I can't really go back in time and see who else was available and also as not being a GM for MLB, I can't see everything they saw.

If we all keep saying that the 3 million dollars Feliz is making this year and 5.5 million next year stopped the Phillies from getting pitching, (this argument has been brought up so let's squash it) does that mean if Lowell got signed the money he was making would of prevented the Phillies from doing anything else this past offseason and the next three years? Obviously not, they still would of made the same little signings they did this year for pitching because there wasn't crap available except for trades if you had prospects.

Plus, I had read people on here before post that the Giants offered less money to Feliz that's why he came here..the Giants offered more guarenteed money than the Phillies, and let's be realistic..The phillies are probably not going to pick up that club option for a 3rd year, it was just to make him feel he got a 3 year deal, plus he was mad at the Giants.

And you know Gillick, he probably thought for some reason that with Charlie Manuel being here with his all formidable gut and super power secrets of hitting in his head he could turn Feliz into Mike Schmidt, obviously won't happen, but maybe they just assumed change of scenery/Manuel could of made Feliz into something average compared to what he is now, in my opinion, a good fielding 3b that won't get on base ever but will hit enough home runs to shut people up.

I don't think it's knee-jerk support for Feliz so much as it's saying that such polemical, abject criticism of the move isn't really justified here. If it's an upgrade, it's a a very slight upgrade, If it's truly a downgrade, then it's only the slightest of downgrades. Feliz is not a net negative. A net negative can neither hit nor field. Clout, your argument is that his solid defense can never make up for his awful offense. But it does to some extent. If he were Abraham Nunez, it wouldn't. But Abraham Nunez will never hit 20 homers and drive in 70 runs. This all-out denial is enough to warrant calling your objectivity into question.

They made an offer to Lowell. They had nothing left to trade for Crede. Ensberg sucks worse than Feliz and you know it. And no one would possibly have defended the Phillies if they'd gone for Cantu over Feliz. NO ONE. Good for the Marlins, they're getting some offensive production from Cantu, for now. I would not have considered him a better option back in March and it's pure hindsight to suggest that he was. The options were a repeat of the three-headed mediocrity that played third base last season, or a somewhat more adequate two-headed partial platoon. It's not hurting the team so greatly that there has to be this ridiculous debate every single day. Let it go already.

That being said, I don't care who is here and what there name is and how good they used to be, if someone else is sitting on the bench that could give the Phillies a better chance to win no matter what game it is, that person should be playing that day. This is somewhat frustrating to me daily with the lineups Manuel makes but he is a MLB manager and I'm not and I have to assume most of the time his judgement will be better than mine.

Clout: Honestly, I've never seen a player as bad as this get so much knee-jerk support from the likes of you, Jack, tray and others. Burrell never got one-tenth this support when he was slumping last season. The man-crush on Feliz by you guys is one of the great mysteries of Beerleaguer.

I will not speak for anyone else, all I am saying is give the guy a chance! If by the end of the season he hasn't put up Ty Cobb type numbers, then fine. (And people were wrong about Burrell, too, but there is a lot more history involved where he is concerned)

It sure looks like Werth is supplanting Victorino in centerfield. Quite a show on Friday.

As I've said on other threads, I'm thrilled PtB has proven me wrong. I've never had anything against the guy personally. However, he *appears* to be a totally different guy up there at the plate, from mid last season onwards, then he used to be. While his numbers did tend to end up similar each year, his at bats truly were hard to watch, at times- perhaps, not as bad as Howard flailing at pitches when he's struggling, but there wasn't a whole lot of confidence in PtB. He's changed something-hats off to him.

Prediction: Victorino traded within the next month and a half.

BB-regarding Vic, I hope you're wrong!

No way they trade Vic during the season. It kills the OF depth. If Werth or Burrell had to go on the DL, you'd have both Jenkins and Taguchi starting everyday. No thanks.

I think what you will see is the Phillies let Pat Burrell go then move Werth to left field. I am not sure it is a good idea but bet it will happen. fans will hate me for this but I think you resign Burrell and trade Victorino for pitching help. They would just need a right handed bat to platoon with Jenkins.

JD: Frankly, there's a HUGE difference between Pat Burrell and Pedro Feliz. Pat Burrell was treated unfairly despite his consistent production. Apart from his bad 2003 season (90 OPS+), he's been very productive including three consecutive seasons before this one of OPS+'s above 120.

Pedro Feliz isn't going to be "given a chance" because he's performing exactly as we expected. And he's doing so because we knew he would do so. His career OPS+ is 84. The three seasons before this one, his OPS+'s were 85, 79, 81. His OPS+ so far this year is just 77. We KNEW his bat would be this bad. Everyone KNEW. This crazy idea that he would suddenly start hitting better because of the ballpark or because of Charlie Manuel after 7 full seasons is crazy.

The Phillies chose to give a two year guaranteed contract to a third baseman with an above average glove and the worst bat in the league for his position. It was a terrible, terrible decision.

Some will say third base isn't our biggest problem, and that may well be the truth, but it doesn't mean it's NOT a problem. It is. It's undeniably so. If the basis for comparison was Charlie's terrible handling of the three-headed monster last year, than ANY player would likely have been somewhat of an upgrade. But we should NEVER have to settle for that. No other team in baseball would have given a player this bad a two year contract. NO ONE. And yet the Phillies did.

That's the point here. It was a terrible decision. Just terrible. If you want to defend by saying it was better than last year... go ahead. Adam Eaton is pitching better than last year. Is that acceptable to you?

RSB: Please don't perpetuate the lie that the Phils had no alternative but to sign Feliz and play him every day.

Crede 129
Dobbs 117
Lowell 108
Cantu 100
Feliz 77 (141 ABs)
Wigginton 65 (57 ABs)
Ensberg 52 (69 ABs)

CJ, "No other team in baseball would have given a player this bad a two year contract. NO ONE. And yet the Phillies did."

The Giants offered him 2 years for more gaurenteed money than the Phillies according to SF's local media. Feliz declined because he was upset at the Giants for the way it was handled.


I don't think that's a bad idea to do during the offseason (assuming they can re-sign Burrell), I just wouldn't trade Vic during the season.

I think you could probably package Vic and a couple prospects for a #3 starter. They'd also have to sign someone better than So to be a 4th outfielder/potential platoon player.

johnnysanz3: I'd love to see a source on that. When the Phils signed Feliz, it was reported that the Giants had offered him a one year deal.

Clout, you are spot on on pretty much about everything, but why include Crede and Lowell in your list of people...The phillies did offer lots of money to Lowell, and no one in the MLB traded for Crede for a reason, high asking price, and coming off back surgery. Cantu you have a good point, I don't know where he came from and why he wasn't pursued by more teams..maybe something we don't know about but GM's were afraid about?

johnnysanz3: I found the article... and it helps support my case even more. He had turned down the Giants offer already. That meant there was NO other competition for Pedro Feliz. The Phillies were bidding against themselves and still offered a guaranteed second year and an option season.

NO OTHER TEAM in baseball would have done that. Not a one. The Phillies were bidding against themselves for the worst offensive third baseman in baseball and some say it's a good deal.

Considering starting pitching is a problem now, if you want to win, you may have to trade vic soon.

There was a report of Feliz turning down another offer to come here-on I don't remember if it was for 2 years, though. We may never now.

Clout: About the other third basemen options, I would have loved to have traded for Crede instead of signing Feliz. We already have Dobbs. Lowell we made a big offer to that he rejected in order to take a smaller offer to stay with the Red Sox. Buster Olney reported that, as did other respected reporters. That takes care of the three above-average hitters on the list.

Jorge Cantu has been solid so far this year, but he was coming off of 2 years with OPS+ of 80 and 79, and has played way more 2nd base than 3rd base in his career, meaning he is most likely a defensive liability (I haven't seen many Marlins games this year and haven't checked his defensive stats). Ty Wiggington and Morgan Ensberg are awful. Dallas McPherson hasn't sniffed the majors yet. Wes Helms is a joke.

I would much rather have Crede or Lowell playing everyday than Pedro Feliz, and I would like to see Dobbs get some more starts, although I think Charlie uses him pretty well to maximize his skills. That said, you present it as if those guys were all readily available and the Phillies simply chose not to get them. We have no idea if they considered trading for Crede or not, and we know they made a very good offer to Lowell.

On January 31, 2008, Feliz signed a two year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.[3] Feliz was offered more guaranteed money by the Giants but was alienated by the way the Giants treated him during negotiations.[1]

That was from Wiki, and the link for that information is from the SF chronicle.

An industry source told The Chronicle that Feliz's offer from the Giants was worth more than he will get from Philadelphia if the deal is formalized.


Ok, now that you corrected yourself that no other team but San Francisco offered him the money it sounds good.

What other options were there besides Feliz? Were there better deals out there that the Phillies turned down just to get Feliz? I wonder what would have happened if the Phils did nothing and we had another season of Nunez/Helms/Dobbs.

I am not defending the Feliz signing really, just saying I didn't see the other options but Cantu, and I didn't hear about him then, of course I don't research as much as others. And teams bid against themselves every year and will do it till the end of time. That being said, he's getting paid too much, but it didn't affect the way the Phillies will spend their money on pitching.

He's a starting 3b making $4mil a year. While he's not the most skilled 3b, by a longshot, $4mil is nada mucho these days.

johnnysanz3: He had already turned down the Giants. There was NO competition. None. Not a single other team in all of baseball looked at the market and thought, "You know, I'd really like to sign that Pedro Feliz guy." None.


Because he's a bad baseball player. His above average glove doesn't come close to making up for his bat. In case you need a reminder:

.234 BA, his worst since 2001, his first season
.280 OBP, his worst since 2003
.418 SLG, his worst since 2002
77 OPS+, his worst since 2002

A team made up of 9 Pedro Felizes would have a winning percentage of .279... the worst of his career.

Oh, and his 2nd in the league in GIDPs.

So, there it is. Defend away.

BB-Good point. Of course, I would rather the Phils had signed Lowell but that wasn't happening, so it's moot.
Nice to see with such a bad signing that somehow the Phils are in 1st place on May 17th.

JD: Nunez would never have been a part of this team, with or without Feliz. Bruntlett was signed to be our utility infielder. Had the Phils elected to go with a true Helms/Dobbs platoon, there likely would have been no late-inning defensive replacement at third base.

JD: Phils are in second place. Their win percentage is lower than the Marlins.

The Phils may win the division in spite of Feliz. They won in spite of some bad players last year. That doesn't mean we should consider Feliz acceptable. Just as we don't consider Adam Eaton acceptable.

I'm just saying it is too soon to judge Feliz in individual terms or as an impact on the team. Yes, they may win in spite of him, but I'm sure you could find players on every championship team that you could say that about. So what? I want the Phils to win, so as long as he's on the team, I have to root for him to perform.
Regarding Eaton, I agree.

JD: I'm curious. Why is it too soon to judge Feliz but not Eaton? Do you not have enough evidence on Feliz? He's been terrible for four years. His production thus far is about as good as it's going to get.

I guess I want to see how he performs with the Phillies. Maybe all things even out in the end, but some players get traded and play better with a different team and sometimes they're worse (i.e. Helms). Transitions are harder for some players than others, and we all know Philly isn't the easiest place to play. Again, I am not defending his performance, but it is too soon to give up. With Eaton, I have hoped that he would turn things around from last season, but I have seen little evidence of that. Hr may be one of those guys that would pitch better elsewhere, or maybe he has lost it entirely. I don't know.

JD: I guess I consider 42 games (a quarter season) more than enough time for Pedro Feliz to show us what he's made of.

I know I'm not going to change anyone's opinion on this. It's not like Pedro Feliz's terrible career numbers are a secret.

The people who defend Feliz are likely doing so only because their basis for comparison is a dreadful handling of a platoon last year. Compared to any other regular third baseman in the league... well, you do the math.

The phillies may have bid against themselves and paid him too much, but nobody else in the league really had as bad 3b production as the Phillies last year and maybe they figured they had to do something, they did throw lots of money and years at Lowell so they were willing to spend. Looking back now the only option the Phillies had realistically was Feliz or Cantu, the other few are worse than Feliz this year, Lowell declined, and White Sox were asking too much for Crede. Looking back now we can say they should of signed Cantu. But the notion that they had like 40 other options to sign at 3b is getting a little tiring to hear.

I don't want Feliz to be an everyday player, I rather see him platoon with Dobbs but it's up to Charlie to figure that out, and I think he will.

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