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Thursday, May 22, 2008

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I just don't buy the Marlins yet...if they're still this good in mid-July, I'll start to think differently. Their pitching isn't this good to sustain what they've done so far.

If I am not mistaken they were like this last year before tapering off. Last year they had Willis and Cabrera.

It's time to send Clay Condrey to the minors or release him and give someone else a chance.

There's a left-handed reliever in the Phils organization who has breezed through all levels and is only 24 years old with career minor league stats of a 9-3 record, 83 games, 166 IP, only 18 walks, 186 k's, 1.46 era, and a sparkling 0.84 WHIP. Added bonus, only 3 homeruns surrendered. His name? RJ Swindle!

The Marlins scare me just because of their record, but I don't want to believe they're actually contenders, so for now I'm calling it luck.

flipper: Once again, statistics are not mumbo-jumbo. They are a means for measuring real-world performance and, used properly, they are a lot more objective and meaningful than what you can discern by listening to the games on the radio.

Feliz has a lifetime OBP of .288, and figures to end up right about at that level this year. Pat Burrell has a career OBP of .369 but, in the last 3 full seasons, his OBPs have been .388, .389, and .400 -- and, for this year, it's at .413. If you assume a .400 OBP for Burrell this year, that means that, if Feliz & Burrell each have 600 PAs, Burrell will reach base 67 more times than Feliz. 67! Not to mention that Burrell hits for way more power, drives in way more runs, and hits far better in clutch situations, than Feliz.

But I guess none of that carries any significance, when weighed aganist your powerful mental image of Burrell staring haplessly at called strike 3 with the winning run on 3rd base.

I agree completely that Condrey needs to be gone...he is contributing absolutely nothing to the team and there are in-house replacements available in the minors...just make the move already Pat.

Great bounceback outing from Savery last night. Those already writing his baseball obituary should stop

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2008_05_21_clrafa_dbcafa_1

So B_A_P, what you are saying is that it is more helpful to get on base 41% of the time as opposed to 28%...I'm confused now. Why would getting on base as a hitter help the ballclub?

Moises Alou injured? I don't believe it.

A Mets fan friend of mine (I know, I'm sick about it, too) asked me a great theoretical question a couple of weeks ago: If an endless batting practice session was held with El Duque pitching to Alou, who would get hurt first?

Sadly, I think we all know that the session would never even get started as one or both would be hurt just warming up.

Maybe someone already mentioned this, but I actually saw yesterday that the Mets have signed Abraham Nunez to a minor league contract.

B_A_P, you are fighting a losing battle. Don't let facts get in the way of a good argument. Flipper has been facilitating the same pointless argument for a couple of weeks now. It is clear that he is either a relative of Pete Happy, was bullied by Pat Burrell at some point, or in need of being committed to an institution for lack of common sense. There is no argument here. It is like arguing that Myers brings more to the table than Hamels.

The Mets sure like to sign Phillies castoffs. Nunez stunk in Nashville. Rotoworld said he was added to mentor young players. Eeesh.

Saw this joke the other day - have to pass it along...

Q: How many Mets does it take to do the laundry?

A: Only one, but it takes all 25 to fold

ESPN announcers (esp. Sutcliffe) were all over the Mets last night for their lack of hustle and complacancy. Sutcliffe ripped Reyes for not being able to field a groundball in the 8th. On the flip side, Atlanta is ripping the ball and they (when on and healthy) may have the best offense in the NL. I believe the Braves are now 19-5 at Turner Field.

****Mets have signed Abraham Nunez to a minor league contract.****

ROTFLMAO!!! What?!?

****was bullied by Pat Burrell at some point,****

No lie, but my cousin hates Pat Burrell because Pat stole his girlfriend in a bar in S. Philly. Now that's funny...I still get on him about it.

The Marlins will begin their downturn in July. The Braves are the team to worry about. Mets are too old and not focused.

The FISH held their cards too long on Willis but adding him in the Cabrera deal was pretty smart.

It added sizzle to the deal while allowing the Marlins to wash their hands of an unexplainable declining Willis.

On a smaller scale it is similar to the Myers trip down Eaton Avenue but he never had a year similar to the one Willis had in 2005.

But otherwise they are both somewhat over-hyped and not the savvy, confident and consistent ace as once thought.

GM-CARSON - If Swindle should somehow get called up the Phils they would have two Indy League alumni on the major league team. Not sure if that is something to brag about however but newsworthy.

I'm beginning to think that the Marlins really bent the Tigers over on that Trade. Willis is done and Cabrera's not looking too hot either (especially for what they're paying him now)

WP: Flipper's argument on Feliz really isn't appreciably different than the arguments advanced by others on this board -- i.e., he's not as bad as people make him out to be; his defense makes up for his offense; we had no better alternative; he's had some big hits; he should at least be given a fair chance. None of these arguments is entirely unreasonable, but the difference with flipper is that he repeatedly links his pro-Feliz arguments to nonsensical attacks on Burrell. That's a good way to lose any semblance of credibility.

Coste is a great Indy league graduate and Swindle may be too (hopefully!).

Sutcliffe was making me sick last night talking about the Mets. At the beginning of the game he was slob-knobbing them as the best in the NL East and probably the NL, then by the end of the game he was bashing them.

What are the odds of the Phillies resigning Burrell? Considering they need money for pitching and he's gonna be on the downside of his career, we they really do it?

Sure, there is legitimate insight/debate on Feliz's perceived value. I find it ridiculous, however, to compare his value to Pat Burrell of 3 years ago.

Couldn't agree more on the complacency/lack of urgency of the Mets. They just look like they'd rather be somewhere else. I don't know if it is still shell shock from last season, age, or whatever. Regardless, doesn't that fall on the manager? I think Willie's days are numbered. It's Omar's fault that they don't have a reliable backup for Alou (who is actually hitting well on the off-chance he's not on the DL), but I think Willie has to shoulder the blame for the complacency (Beltran, Delgado, etc.). Someone has to go to "shake things up." Not that I want to wake them up in any way, as I'm enjoying this.

The chances of re-signing Burrell are slim and none. I'd like to see it happen, but I think he'll need too much money to make it work for us. It will be very hard to replace his production.

I certainly wouldn't be heartbroken if Condrey got sent down but I have no problem keeping him on the squad until he starts being awful in close games or someone like Outman pitches too well to be kept down anymore.

NEPP: You mentioned excitement about Benson bc the Phillies "need pitching", but I don't necessarily agree with you that broadly. I certainly agree that pitching could be better, and it's always good to have depth, but I'd only get excited about Benson if you feel the FO is ready to permanently part ways with Eaton. Other than acquiring a clear cut #2 starter(which is highly unlikely), Kendrick and Moyer have been fine, and we really have no choice but to hope that Myers gets better.

Brian: The FO will not cut Eaton loose and admit that mistake...Benson could easily slip into the rotation when one of the current starters goes on the DL. Its bound to happen eventually...there is no way that they'll go all season without one of the five going down. I'm just praying it isn't Hamels. Benson, when healthy, was a legit #3 starter in the majors. If he can even approach that level, I'd be stunned.

Did I mention that Colon pitched great last night and that the Phillies easily could have targeted him instead of Benson this winter?

Randolph is definitely in trouble, but the Mets will need to do more than just change managers. That team needs an overhaul. It's largely the same group that went down the tubes last year and they just haven't psychically recovered from it. They look as decrepit and worn down as Shea Stadium itself.

But then there's the fact that they really aren't all that good to begin with. The front end of their rotation, Wagner, Reyes, Wright, Church, and Beltran - that's a good enough nucleus. But there isn't a whole lot to like about the rest of the team. They should be better than .500, of course, but to me they've never looked like a team that could even win 90.

I'm not about to write off the Marlins as a mere early fluke - not until they prove otherwise. It would be a mistake to take them lightly. In this depleted division, they're dangerous. If they started losing games, it wouldn't surprise me, but neither would it if they kept winning.

This still should be the Phillies' division to win. I have limited faith that they'll actually seize that opportunity, but they strike me as being in a better position to come out on top than anyone else in the East.

I think that Randolph is being unfairly criticized because he's black...

Bed B, I don't think anyone was necessarily writing Savery's obit', I just think people were reacting to those on this board who thought he was some kind of "sure thing", merely because he was a first rounder.

b_a_p:
David Cohen, over on TGP cited an interesting study done on BP about a strong correlation between runners LOB and scoring runs. Teams that score a lot of runs apparently also leave a lot of runners on base. I guess that means if they're not getting on base thay can't score. [duh]

Don't tell that to flipper, though. In his world OBP doesn't matter.

In case anyone is interested, after about 1/3 of the minor league season, here are some pitching and hitting stats, from some of the Phils lower level players. Some are doing very well and some are not...


PITCHING-


Happ (AAA)- 10 games, 1-4, 57 IP, 48 hits, 26 BB's, 66 K's, 0 saves, 3.45 ERA

Swindle (AA, AAA)- 17 games, 2-0, 24 IP, 12 hits, 1 BB, 27 K's, 0 saves, .74 ERA

Carrasco (AA)- 9 games, 3-4, 55 IP, 49 hits, 22 BB's, 55 K's, 0 saves, 3.44 ERA

Outman (AA)- 12 games, 1-2, 39 IP, 39 hits, 20 BB's, 43 K's, 0 saves, 2.54 ERA

Castro (AA)- 11 games, 3-0, 36 IP, 28 hits, 22 BB's, 36 K's, 0 saves, 3.50 ERA

Bisenius (AAA, AA)- 9 games, 0-1, 11 IP, 11 hits, 11 BB's, 11 K's, 0 saves, 7.25 ERA

Overholt (AA)- 17 games, 1-1, 21 IP, 11 hits, 9 BB's, 21 K's, 9 saves, 2.08 ERA

Carpenter (AA)- 9 games, 2-5, 50 IP, 66 hits, 20 BB's, 36 K's,, 0 saves, 5.54 ERA

Bastardo (A, AA)- 9 games, 4-1, 53 IP, 39 hits, 18 BB's, 67 K's, 0 saves, 2.10 ERA

Savery (A)- 10 games, 2-4, 57 IP, 67 hits, 24 BB's, 49 K's, 0 saves, 4.71 ERA

Garcia (A)- 9 games, 5-1, 56 IP, 57 hits, 16 BB's, 49 K's, 0 saves, 3.54 ERA

Harker (A)- 13 games, 3-1, 20 IP, 21 hits, 8 BB's, 14 K's, 0 saves, 1.31 ERA

Naylor (A)- 10 games, 4-2, 67 IP, 45 hits, 15 BB's, 71 K's, 0 saves, 2.55 ERA

Brummett (A)- 6 games, 3-0, 37 IP, 28 hits, 10 BB's, 36 K's, 0 saves, 1.95 ERA


HITTING-


Watson (AAA)- .306 BA, 44 hits, 0 HR's, 7 RBI's, 2 SB, 8 BB's, 16 K's

Jaramillo (AAA)- .190 BA, 26 hits, 3 HR's, 10 RBI's, 0 SB, 13 BB's, 23 K's

Golson (AA)- .325 BA, 54 hits, 5 HR's, 25 RBI's, 14 SB, 11 BB's, 49 K's

Marson (AA)- .325 BA, 39 hits, 1 HR, 25 RBI's, 0 SB, 26 BB's, 28 K's

Donald (AA)- .305 BA, 36 hits, 2 HR's, 19 RBI's, 4 SB, 20 BB's, 26 K's

Harman (AA)- .206 BA, 14 hits, 2 HR's, 19 RBI's, 4 SB, 20 BB's, 26 K's

Slayden (AA)- .282 BA, 42 hits, 4 HR's, 31 RBI's, 0 SB, 15 BB's, 37 K's

Cardenias (A)- .333 BA, 26 hits, 1 HR, 4 RBI's, 1 SB, 8 BB's, 10 K's

Taylor (A)- .342 BA, 55 hits, 7 HR's, 32 RBI's, 5 SB, 15 BB's, 33 K's

Brown (A)- .276 BA, 50 hits, 4 HR's, 21 RBI's, 9 SB, 18 BB's, 32 K's

Bay Area Phan is the top contender for the Lake Nostradamus Prediction of the Year Award for his prediction of two Ryan Howard Homeruns. How can anyone predict that a sub .200 hitter get two homers in a game? Simply amazing.

I hate the Fish. That's my comment on this thread header.

I have my tickets for tonight's Phillies game in Minute Maid Park. I went cheap and bought upper deck seats right behind home plate in Section 419, second row. Look for me on high pop fouls behind the plate. I'll be wearing my red Phillies shirt and cap. My daughter will be wearing a Chase Utley jersey and an old Phillies cap. My wife will be wearing ....normal clothes. She'll probably bring a paperback romance novel to read while Eaton Crap pitches!

No, there were some who already called him a "Bust".

NE, I partially agree with that.

After all, RSB is right. The steMs were overrated to begin with. (The NY media is, IMO, the guilty party.) I'm not ready to write them off yet, though. They may still be heard from before the end of the season.

But, it's not Randolph. You can't make chicken salad out of 'you know what'.

well, then they were wrong.

As far as Pat the Bat, I think he will be signed. Remember, this is the guy who has refused many trades out of town when his career and the team were at their lowest point. Now that they are winners and he hears cheers rather than jeers, I expect the Phillies to steal him at a very low price.

I predict 3 years $20 million and it gets done in July.

Marson, Golson, Carrasco and Cardenas are legit prospects...some of the others will definitely help the club such as Outman, Garcia, and maybe Bastardo

So, Burrell will take 1/2 of what he's making now, for the next 3 years? I don't think the phils will give him a multiyear deal.

****I predict 3 years $20 million and it gets done in July.****

I'd be very happy with that type of deal for Pat...Hell get him a 1B glove so he can sub in there occasionally when he loses even more mobility. Its worth that much to have a legit Right handed bat in the lineup.

Jeff - While Pat the Bat won't command $14 million a year like he's being paid now, you think his agent would let him sign for a little more than $6.5 million a year? I think that is highly unlikely. More like a $30 million contract with it escalating through the years. But the Phillies will use the dollars it would have spent on Pat for a No. 2 pitcher. Next year's OF will be Jenkins, Victorino and Werth with Golson coming off the bench.

Denny B., thanks for the minor league stats. Swindle's numbers are unbelievable!

>unexplainable declining Willis.

Oh, its explainable - he was a young slider pitcher with a funky delivery. it has TommyJohn written all over it.

A second thanks to Denny for the stats. One line that jumped out at me was Jaramillo, who at one point in the off-season was seen as having a shot to beat out Coste for second-string catcher this season. At this rate, he may have to wait as long as Coste to make the big leagues.

BAP,

Since you addressed the issue on this thread, I'll cross-post this comment (and add some more at the end):


ok. 30 more hits over the course of a season is about one additional hit every five games. Does that have an impact? Sure, but it's not a difference that makes a huge distinction between one team and the next.

What I'm saying is that when you make post after post focusing on stat comparisons between two players, you lose a sense of the real impact of what the stats represent.

AWH, when you multiply that times 8 players to give a sense of the real impact of such statistics, I think you are essentially agreeing with me. Of course a 50 point difference in BAs, for example, for an entire team is incredibly significant. My point is that when you focus so much vitriol on Feliz for his low OPS, you're losing the forest for the trees. Replacing one player with a relatively low OPS with another that has a higher OPS has a limited impact. It's important, but it's importance in terms of real outcomes ain't all that great.

My sense is that when you don't like a guy, for whatever reason, it's easy to fall into the trap of justifying that dislike by focusing on stats in a way that over-inflates their real meaning.

Of course, when it comes to Burrell, everything I said is a bunch of crap. Every time he strikes out with men on base is rock-solid proof that he's a stiff.

----

First, I never made a case of a direct comparison between Burrell and Feliz as hitters. Clearly, Burrell is a better hitter than Feliz.

Second, even when you take the getting on base stat: 67 more times means getting on base what - one additional time every 2.5 games? Yeah, every little bit counts, I get that - but even if you replaced Feliz with a guy that produced like Burrell has averaged out over his whole career, one additional base runner every 2.5 games is just a limited impact - especially when mitigated by better defense.

3 years 20 mil ain't happenin, but I could see 2 years 20 mil, which is about what Jermaine Dye got last year. I'd be very happy if we did that.

And someone ripped me as a Burrell hater for pointing out during April that he normally(last 3 years) starts off hot and then slumps in May and June. Unfortunately I was right. I wonder exactly what makes him follow this pattern.

****But the Phillies will use the dollars it would have spent on Pat for a No. 2 pitcher. ****

There will be several of them available too. Such as Odalis Perez, Oliver Perez, Burnett, Derek Lowe, John Garland and of course Sabathia and Sheets who will be too expensive for the Phils. I have a list somewhere of all the 09 FO's that will available.

I saw this touched on in the game chat last night, but I had to put my 2 cents in. As philly fans we are very lucky to have the broadcast crew we have. Bob Carpenter and Ray knight are dreadful. I am stuck in South Central PA and I only get games on CW57 and CN8. Carpenter and Knight were discussing how bad the Phils outfield arms are when all 3 last night were probably above average. And then the ultimate insult was Zimmerman being a better fielder than Schmidt. Please!

I know Harry is slipping a bit but I have been listening to him since 1975 and rue the day he is not part of the broadcast. Wheeler is an ass kissing company man but has been around a while too. He is a good analyst. Mccarthy is OK but seems to try to hard. I listen to the radio a lot and LA is fun to listen to. Sarge is Sarge he is bearable.

I get Pirates, Orioles and Nats games every night and some are OK but the Phils are the best. My father used to turn the TV down and listen to the radio in such cases. Now I know why.

****Of course, when it comes to Burrell, everything I said is a bunch of crap. Every time he strikes out with men on base is rock-solid proof that he's a stiff.****

Yes, because Pat Burrell is the only player to do that...Riiiggghttt.

Thanks for the pro-Marlins post! We just want to be taken seriously, and thank you for all the participation yesterday.

You might enjoy our followup post here:

http://thesouthfloridafan.blogspot.com/2008/05/its-always-utley-in-philadelphia.html

We'd love to be interactive with you guys in the future.

2008 RISP: 12 of 38 (.316 AVG/.391 OBP) 2 HRs, 20 RBIs. Not exactly horrible numbers for Pat.

I see Derek Lowe as someone the Phils will target this offseason and probably in-season.

Flipper, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

A little Billy Madison reference from Brian G

Remember how obnoxious Mets fans where when they signed Santana? I love it.

Thanks for the warm wished, Brian.

Derek Lowe scares me...He'll be 35 next year and he's been getting killed after a decent start. Something serious could be wrong with him (9.28 ERA in May)

flipper: Forget Feliz. Let's focus on Burrell. You admit he has "good numbers," but your position is that he sucks with men on base. Yet his career numbers in literally every on-base situation (men on base, RISP, RISP with 2 outs, bases loaded) are better than his his career numbers in general.

So, if you acknowledge that Burrell has good overall numbers, and those numbers are better still in on-base situations, please explain how you arrive at the conclusion that he isn't good with men on base?

B_A_P: Does your head hurt from slamming it into that cement wall in front of you?

We've got a Rollins-Reyes-Hanley debate started here if any of you guys are interested:

http://thesouthfloridafan.blogspot.com/2008/05/its-always-utley-in-philadelphia.html

Ok. There's two parts of the answer, BAP, one rational and the other emotional.

Over the years of watching Burrell, it has seemed to me that he's come up small at a lot of crucial at bats - when the game really seemed on the line. When you say that he hits better with runners in scoring position than he does normally - that doesn't really necessarily indicate anything about his performance in crucial points of games. RISP could hide coming up small at crucial times if he hits well with runners on base only when the team is well ahead or well behind. I'm still asking for one of you stat geeks to give me Burrell's numbers on game winning hits. How would they compare with other players who have similar #'s of at bats, hitting in the 4 or 5 slot in the batting order? I'd wage that Ortiz has had almost in one year as Burrell has in his career.

The other part of what I'm saying is that being a fan is all about reacting emotionally, probably irrationally, to one player or another. Maybe I'm completely wrong about Burrell's performance at crucial points in games - but I'm emotionally scarred by the times he has come up small. (Don't worry, no suicide watch necessary). I think some folks are reacting pretty emotionally to Feliz, and justifying that reaction with stats as if it makes their reaction "rational." My proof is that the real impact of some of the stats seems more limited than the level of vitriol.

But hey, I am a world-class idiot, so what do I know. And the though me "taking Clout's breath away" is more than just a little disturbing.

Sorry, got to learn how to type. I meant to say "the thought me...."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3407930

Sounds like Randolph's about to get canned...I'd rather he stay on as Mets manager as new blood might energize the team to make a run...

flipper: I would have been with you a year ago, but Burrell has been much better in the clutch since then. You seem to have a very short memory; what about the homers he hit in April - the one to tie the game in the 9th against Houston, another to win a game in the 10th vs. SF? They don't get any bigger than that.

So flipper...
I thought dolphins were supposed to be smart not necessarily emotional.

How bout those one's he hit off Wagner last year?

Yeah. Gotta admit he had some huge hits last year and at the beginning of this year. But that doesn't quite get him out of the hole he dug in my book. If he doesn't tank this year, as it appears he might be doing, I'll have to throw the book out.

Interesting comment from "Rumblings and Grumblings":

Who's No. 1: Ask most people to name the best left-handed pitcher in the National League, and they'd answer Johan Santana. But a scout who has seen Cole Hamels twice this month has a different answer: "Hamels probably has better stuff than Santana," the scout said, "because he's got a better breaking ball. The only thing that's keeping Cole Hamels from being a premium, premium guy is health."

"I thought dolphins were supposed to be smart not necessarily emotional."

So I'm not the only one on this board old enough to know who flipper is?

I know this isn't a very bold prediction, nor does it take the brainpower of a gray sea mammal, but I do not buy the Marlins as a gate to finish first place team. Merely look at how many of their players have career year numbers to this point (some amazingly so), and you can pretty easily see that there will be significant tapering off in their future. Given the age of the players, well, it may be rather substantial tapering off.

I'd say the only thing keeping Hamels from being a premium, premium guy is Cholly sending him out for the 8th inning when he's already at 100 pitches and leaving change ups up in the zone to Rich Aurilia. If you take out those two things his ERA would be under 1.

In re: the Burrell/Feliz comparison
A line-up of all Felizes (try to hold your vomit for a minute) based on his 2008 OBP of .286 would send 38 batters up during a 27 out game. They would see a total of 117 pitches. Based on the .213 runs per plate appearance he has produced over his career they would score a paltry 4.03 runs per game - well below league average.

An all Burrell line-up would send up 46 batters, would make the other team throw 195 pitches and would score 5.36 runs per game.

I'll take the all-Burrell line-up.

If flipper would like to run the stats on an all Ortiz line-up, I'm willing to listen.

(The all Feliz line-up, on the field, would be considerably better than the all-Burrell line-up; but that's not the comparison being made by Mr. Bottlenose.)

Brian G -
Rich Aurilia must die.

I'm pretty sure Burrell's played long enough that his clutch stats (men on base, close and late, etc.) are pretty much the same as his career numbers. That's sorta what happens when a player has a long enough career. He's pretty much .260/.375/.480 in all of them (and has racked up thousands of PA in most of those categories.)

I don't see a category on B-R.com for "game-winning hits" though.

Burrell's numbers in the last 28 days (105 PA): .198/.371/.358

Gotta love that OBP even when he's not hitting. Although his OBP the last few seasons has been closer to .400, his career OBP is still .369.

June, not May, is actually Burrell's worst month of his career by far:

March/April: .282/.381/.500
May: .268/.395/.525
June: .222/.322/.418

Let's hope he's getting his June slump out of the way in May this year.

"Flipper's argument on Feliz really isn't appreciably different than the arguments advanced by others on this board -- i.e., he's not as bad as people make him out to be; his defense makes up for his offense; we had no better alternative; he's had some big hits; he should at least be given a fair chance. None of these arguments is entirely unreasonable..."

BAP, you better hope clout was not reading this thread and that heretical statement.

Burrell's career clutch stats probably mostly come against RHP. I don't have PA for each, since my source, B-R.com doesn't list them, but it would be a good guess since he bats 20 points higher against LHP, gets on base about 4% less often against LHP and his SLG is 50 points better against LHP. His clutch states are closer, it looks to the naked eye, to his RHP stats:

vs LHP .277 .414 .542
vs RHP .258 .378 .495

Yet another good reason to bat him 4th between Utley and Howard.

Why? Its not like Left right Left makes a hell of alot more sense than Left Left Right in the middle of the lineup or anything...

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