Report: Vic out, Werth in as starting center fielder

Manager Charlie Manuel tells Randy Miller of Phillyburbs.com that Jayson Werth is now a starter, leaving a disappointed and scuffling Shane Victorino fighting for playing time. [Link]

Victorino his hitting just .235/.296/.322 on the season and has been hobbled by a calf injury, while Werth excelled in center during Vic’s stint on the DL and is hitting .272/.348/.544 with nine home runs, three of them coming in Friday night’s breakout performance.

Beerleaguer: The trouble is, the last two games have demonstrated why Werth began the year in a platoon situation in the first place. Werth went hitless with five strikeouts in the last two games, each started by right-handed pitchers. Now, the Phils draw three righties in a row against Washington. So the timing is questionable, plus, they could use Vic’s wheels behind Myers, who’s given up plenty of deep drives this season.

Or, we could take it with a grain of salt and look at the situation as having three very good 4th outfielders, with playtime being granted to the hottest hitter. There’s nothing wrong with having a healthy competition. The list is long with players who’ve been challenged to perform, stepped into starting roles and punched the gas. David Dellucci did it. Victorino did it. Nevertheless, in Cholly’s defense, Vic has looked out of sorts since opening day. He hasn’t been getting on base nearly enough to justify more playing time, especially at the top of the lineup, where Werth’s patience is an asset.

The Rod Barajas Series: Because of the delays, I missed much of the game. Fortunately, Hall of Fame poster MG provided a first-hand report:

- Bad series. Phils need to take 2 of 3 against a team with a pedestrian offense and not facing Halladay as a starter. Phils have already failed to take care of business against some weaker opponents this year with favorable matchups. Let's hope it is not the start of a trend.

- Feliz was shockingly patient at the plate today. Actually took some pitches including 2-first ball strikes on his first two AB, held off some bad pitches, and got jammed on a really good pitch with the bases loaded.

- I understand Cholly felt he had to go with Durbin for another inning because of the bullpen's heavy usage over the past two days. Once again though, Cholly was behind the curve with his bullpen. When Durbin lost Scutaro on 3 straight balls that missed the plate badly, he should have had someone ready to go to replace Durbin. Instead, Gibbons PH with Overbay and Durbin hung him a fat meatball on the inside of the plate. You could tell the instant it left the bat that it was crushed.

- Dobbs is the best Phils' PH of the past 25-30 years. Just gets locked in and drives the ball well. Maybe only Greg Gross could be considered a better option.

Today’s number: 24.5. The percentage of fly balls allowed by Brett Myers that have sailed over the fence.

Comments

[clout]

I found this statement from MG very strange: "When (Feliz) cools off, Dobbs needs to be starting at 3B a few times a week."

Feliz is 5 for his last 27 (.185). How cool would you like him to get?

[J. Weitzel]

Phillie killer Tim Redding tonight.

[EastFallowfield]

Not facing Halladay as a starter didn't mean much yesterday when he threw almost 3 innings of key relief. Considering we faced their 3 best pitchers in the same game we did fairly well.

[clout]

I really have no problem with seeing what Werth can do against 3 mediocre righties: Redding, Bergmann and Hill. If he performs as he has throughout his career against righties, say 3 for 12 with no extra base hits, then I'd probably drop this little experiment and put Vic back in CF and Werth in RF, where they belong.

[Willard Preacher]

Phillie killer Bret Myers tonight, also.

[GM-Carson]

I've been pleasantly surprised by Charlie Manuel's decision so far this season, but naming Werth the starter is CF is just plain dumb. I love Werth for what he is, which is a great platoon outfielder or league's best 4th outfielder...not a full-time player though.

[Willard Preacher]

I'm not entirely sure that looking as the situation of having "3 very good 4th outfielders" is a good thing. I'd prefer sound 2nd and 3rd outfielders (especially when Burrell begins slumping).

[GM-Carson]

This is not the smart thing naming Werth the starting CF. Werth kills lefties (.321/1.107 this year, .290/.902 career), but not so much against righties (.236/.734 this year, .248/.748 career) which he'll mostly be facing. Bad Charlie, bad.

[bay_area_phan]

Too much is being made about Werth's failings against right-handers. His OPS against right-handers is better than either Jenkins' or Victorino's. If Werth continues to struggle against right-handers, it would certainly be a significant factor in determining his role for 2009. But, for 2008, the Phillies have no better alternative.

[clout]

BAP: So you've given up on Vic and Jenkins for the year?

[Willard Preacher]

I'm scratching my head wondering why, if Cholly insists that Werth should start, he needs to play center field? Where is it written that he can't play RF as a starter?

[bay_area_phan]

Werth's Nos. against right-handers (the guys he can't hit):

.236/.317/.417 (.734 OPS)

Jenkins's Nos. against right-handers (the guys he supposedly hits well):

.279/.315/.375 (.690 OPS)

Not to mention that Werth steals bases, plays much better defense, and does not have to be removed from the game as soon as the opposing manager brings in a left-hander.

[clout]

mw217 had a good post on the last thread about some of the good performances at Reading. I'd love to see them move Jason Donald to 3B. He doesn't have the range to play SS at the big league level and there's, um, a guy kinda blocking him there anyway. (He's also made 6 errors in 31 games, which projects to 30+ Es for a full season.)

If they shifted him to 3B (he's got the arm to play there) and he could maintain his .409 OB for a full season of AA, he would be a very intriguing option next season.

[Steve Jeltz]

Werth looked bad yesterday, so kind of a strange day to make that proclamation. And I agree with WP, if you're making him a starter I prefer the idea making him the starting RF with Vic getting more playing time than Jenkins.

Vic has shown signs of coming around in the last week. I think he needs more consistent playing time.

[markL]

That number on Myers is the most alarming stat I've seen in a while. Really worried about tonight's matchup, with Redding on the hill, who for some reason always seems to mystify the Phils.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: If Vic or Jenkins starts hitting, then we can talk about more playing time. In the meantime, I'm totally on board with a Jenkins/Victorino platoon (though Vic should certainly play CF on the days that he plays).

I fail to understand all the hang-wringing about how Werth shouldn't play against right-handers, when Jenkins is doing even worse.

[clout]

BAP: Jenkins and Vic are off to slow starts, no doubt. The question is whether they revert to career norms. You apparently don't think so. But if they do (and odds say they will) here's the comparison:

Jenkins career OPS vs. RHP: .877
Werth career OPS vs. RHP: .748
Victorino career OPS vs. RHP: .728

Not much diff between Vic & Werth but huge gap with Jenkins.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Redding mystified the Mets last week, too.

[clout]

BAP: And just to be clear, I DO favor starting Werth against these next 3 righties and sitting Vic so you and I are agreed on that. And, if he has success, I'd keep playing him. But I think the odds are against it.

[bay_area_phan]

The guy who writes PhuturePhillies.com did a write-up on Donald about a week or two ago. He also felt that Donald should be moved to third. One of the posters asked him if Donald had enough offense to play third and the guy responded, more or less, by saying that he couldn't possibly be worse than the third baseman the Phillies have now.

[bay_area_phan]

I do think Vic will revert to something along the lines of his career norms. I'm less certain about Jenkins, considering that he is nearly 34 and seems to be on a clear downward plane. I don't expect him to slug .350 all year, but I question whether his overall offensive output agains right-handers will be better than Werth's. But if he starts to hit, I'll be all in favor of giving him more playing time.

[clout]

BAP: Donald would be a perfect compliment to the offense. He doesn't have Feliz's 1 HR/per 28 AB power but an OB near .400 at the top of the order is something this team has needed for a long time. I'd like to see him cut back on his Ks, however. He walks a lot, but strikes out way too much for a non-power guy.

[J. Weitzel]

I'm anxious to see if Jenkins, who hasn't had much of a chance to get into a true rhythm, can get something going this series. The next three games will go a long way in showing what Jenkins can contribute to this team. This is the time of year players must start doing it. They also get Oswalt in the Houston series, so it's another big test. Dobbs should be given opportunites as well.

[Lake Fred]

Still smarting after the Barajas pasting we took in the last two games. Tonight we face the gNats, who we should beat every time we face them, but don't. We start Adam Eaton II tonight with Bret Myers. The negadelphia in me fully expects a third straight loss. When will we see Happ?

[J. Weitzel]

With the pitching in somewhat disarray, one wonders if a roster move could be upcoming. Josh Outman is on a roll. No walks, no runs and nine strikeouts in his last five appearances, 7 IP, out of a lights-out R-Phils bullpen. I wonder if it’s time to begin some on-the-job training, especially with long-inning guys like Durbin a little gassed.

[MG]

Clout - Feliz is cooling off a bit from earlier this month but he looked decent at the plate yesterday. None of his usual horrendous swings and misses trying to pull pitches.

I wouldn't mind seeing Dobbs though get a start or two this week at 3B against the RHP the Phils will face. He is locked in at the plate.

[JD]

I like seeing Vic and Werth in the lineup together with Vic in CF. Does Cholly have personal issues with Vic?

[Steve Jeltz]

I'm a big advocate of a phantom injury DL stint for 1 or 2 guys to get a look at Happ in the rotation and/or Outman in the pen.

I'm thinking if Myers lays another stinkbomb tonight, you can put him on the 15 day for something brain-fart related. Of course, Eaton is a perennial contender for being stashed away for a couple weeks as well.

At some point, Gordon is going to need a mini-rest too. I'd maybe do it around the All Star break so he doesn't actually have to miss too many games and give Outman a quick look.

[Jimmie J.]

I like Werth but only in a platoon roll. Victorino or Jenkins should be starting against RHP. I think Burrell can use a night off too.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

JD,

I think, at least, anecdotally, Cholly isn't the biggest Vic phan.

[MG]

Jenkins has been a real dud this year from an offensive perspective. Hitting at a respectable average but that is concealing a ton of issues including:

- Ridiculously low OBP because of a walk rate that is below even his below-average career numbers.

- Anemic SLG due to 6 XHB. 2 HR is a disappointment but the lack of doubles due to a ridiculously high percentage of balls he is hitting on the ground. Phils didn't sign this guy to be a singles hitter who plays decent defense on the corner.

- Don't believe in "clutch" hitting but Jenkins is probably one of the last guys I want to see up there right now in a key spot. Maybe slightly over a guy like Ruiz.

[Anon]

On Werth in CF:

- Werth had a great play yesterday tracking that ball down in the gap in the 4th and even Victorino wouldn't have nabbed Stewart's double in the 6th to the gap in right CF.

However, he misjudged two balls off the bat and turned what should have been routine plays into more adventuresome outs. Also, Dad and I noticed that his positioning was a little odds at time given the indication of some of the guys up there. Tough to say though if that was a managerial move or just Werth.

Been saying this for weeks but Werth is not a natural CF and it is kind of foolish to make him learn on the job during the middle of the season. Something that should have been explored more in spring training.

I can see starting Werth more in CF with Victorino's offensive struggles. It makes no sense though to start Werth in CF though when Victorino is in RF.

[J. Weitzel]

MG: What did you see from Seanez yesterday? Seanez was a good veteran signing, but to me, he's been smoke and mirrors.

[MG]

Last two points:

- Pitching has been in a bit of disarray to the starters. Team ERA is up nearly a full run this month and due to some poor starts by Myers and Eaton. Phils really could have used the 6+ innings that Kendrick might have given them yesterday.

- Phils have been careful about using Seanez (really trying to avoid using him on consecutive days which is wise given his age) but he get hit really hard yesterday. Even his outs in the 6th were hit pretty hard. Wonder if the slightly increased workload is starting to catch up with him a bit. Wouldn't be shocked if Seanez remains somewhat effective for the 1st half of the season but hits a wall in July. Happened last year in LA and wouldn't be surprised it happens in Philly once it gets warm/muggy.

[Anon]

JW - Seanez was still throwing at a pretty decent clip (fastball was around 92) but missing with his offspeed and getting behind early in the count to a bunch of hitters. Still a useful guy to have in the bullpen because he throws hard but the fastball gets smoked when he has to throw it when he is behind in the count.

[J. Weitzel]

That's what I could see, too, with Seanez. That's how it went down with Alfonseca last season, although he had a foot injury or something.

[Niefy]

I feel like Jason Donald is only getting this much attention due to the lack of other minor league talent in the Phillies System, especailly infielders.

His minor league stats up to double A look strikingly similar (or worse!) than Greg Dobbs':

Dobbs A and AA: .289 avg Hr every 34.5 AB's

Donald A and AA: .292 avg Hr every 53.6 AB's

Also believe it or not SB's from their time in A and AA is more or less a push.

I don't think Donald is really worth this much hype.

[J. Weitzel]

Niefy: You are correct, and it speaks to the sorry state of the minor leagues in terms of position talent. You could actually make a case that Donald is the best position prospect in the system right now, although I would say it's Marson at this point. Donald is old for Reading, doesn't have great power, but looks like he could be - exactly who you said - a middle infield version of Greg Dobbs.

[J. Weitzel]

On a related note, the team released Juan Tejeda, a veteran who's been playing first base for Reading for a couple seasons. When you talk about the weakest position in the organization, look no further than first base. It's atrocious.

[bay_area_phan]

Niefy: Besides the fact that Donald is a couple years younger than Dobbs was when he posted those AA stats, how is it a negative that Donald's minor league numbers look similar to Dobbs'? If Dobbs could field, there would be little debate that he's a much better third baseman than Feliz.

[bay_area_phan]

Donald strikes me as sort of the offensive equivalent of what Chone Figgins was before last season -- only without Figgins' speed. He should hit for pretty high average (.280 to .290-ish), & draw his fair share of walks. The Phillies' lineup could use a few guys like that.

Whether he can play third base is questionable, however.

[JD]

BB, considering Cholly's comments, it would seem that you're right.
"Right now, [Werth is] definitely one of our starters," Manuel said. "Why shouldn't he be? We're trying to win."
Is Cholly saying that if Vic plays, that implies the Phils are trying to lose? Strange..

[J. Weitzel]

A guy like Donald falls under the trade bait category.

[Sophist]

Good Q&A on BP.com with Outman. Smart guy, that Outman.

http://baseballprospectus.com/
article.php?articleid=7537

[Niefy]

Not a negative per se, bay area. Just, to be blunt and concise: nothing special.

[GM-Carson]

Anyone else as worried about tonight's game, and this entire series for that matter, as I am?

[johnnysanz3]

It's getting obvious to me in my opinion that Manuel doesn't like Victorino. He sticks with Howard and Burrell through long horribly bad slumps (although they don't have another option really but still) and sits Victorino instantly when he's hitting around .230 and he missed 2 weeks to a calf injury. Plus Werth has 2 errors on the season already, other plays that aren't errors but were misplayed, Vic has no errors and has taken away base hits in CF. Plus Victorino has had 2 seasons of .280/.350 (avg/obp) baseball with the phillies already. Home runs seem to come in bunches or be streaky with lots of players, is Werth really going to end the year with 38 home runs and Jenkins with 8 home runs?

[RSB]

Manuel is all about going with the 'hot hand' which only makes sense to a point. And furthermore, outside of Werth's mammoth game Friday, he has *not* been particularly hot.

I completely agree with those who say the Phillies should be breaking out a new CF/RF alignment every night according to recent performance and the opposing pitcher. There is no reason to lock into a pattern here. Werth has the best numbers by far over Victorino and Jenkins, but Victorino outshines either on defense by plenty. If you're going to sit anyone, sit Jenkins. He gives you the least out of the three of them. His one asset is power, and he has a measly 2 homeruns this year. It wouldn't take long for Victorino to match that total.

Victorino's also been a disappointment at the plate this year, no question, and I'm sure Manuel's fed up with all his wasted ABs, but two facts are being ignore here in the present alignment vs. RHP: one, Werth *cannot* hit hard stiff from a righty. Cannot. How can Manuel not see this? Two, Victorino, even as flawed as he is, gives you so much more than Jenkins, it isn't even funny. I've got to think Jenkins is getting the nod here because of the contract he signed. It *does* work that way. Look at the Dodgers, being forced to hurt themselves by continuing to run Andruw Jones out there when there's at least two better options. You do not bench a free-agent signing before the all-star break.

What's the most games the Phillies have won in a row this year, 3? This win two-lose one, win one-lose two mediocrity has been going on all month. One does detect a sense of complacency. Time to start showing a more unified team effort. Getting Myers in gear would be a great start towards that end.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

My first thoughts when reading the article: Big mistake by UC. Vic is a better defensive CF than Werth and its not even that close. Vic will also start hitting at some point...he's a career .280 hitter afterall. His range in CF compensated for Burrell's lack of range in LF. Werth is pretty good in center but Vic is better. I would rather have heard that Werth is now the starting RF but i guess Charlie really has something against Vic.

On Donald: He's good but he still doesn't project as a star. He also doesn't have a position to play as both 2B and SS are blocked. They should try him at 3B in Reading to see if he can handle it because he has no future in Philly otherwise. (barring a trade of Howard and moving Utley over to 1B).

You gotta think that the Phillie are desperately shopping for a starting pitcher.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Today’s number: 24.5. The percentage of fly balls allowed by Brett Myers that have sailed over the fence.

~shudders~