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Thursday, May 22, 2008

Comments

From the last thread:

I'm pretty sure Burrell's played long enough that his clutch stats (men on base, close and late, etc.) are pretty much the same as his career numbers. That's sorta what happens when a player has a long enough career. He's pretty much .260/.375/.480 in all of them (and has racked up thousands of PA in most of those categories.)

I don't see a category on B-R.com for "game-winning hits" though.

Burrell's numbers in the last 28 days (105 PA): .198/.371/.358

Gotta love that OBP even when he's not hitting. Although his OBP the last few seasons has been closer to .400, his career OBP is still .369.

June, not May, is actually Burrell's worst month of his career by far:

March/April: .282/.381/.500
May: .268/.395/.525
June: .222/.322/.418

Let's hope he's getting his June slump out of the way in May this year.

Burrell's career clutch stats probably mostly come against RHP. I don't have PA for each, since my source, B-R.com doesn't list them, but it would be a good guess since he bats 20 points higher against LHP, gets on base about 4% less often against LHP and his SLG is 50 points better against LHP. His clutch states are closer, it looks to the naked eye, to his RHP stats:

vs LHP .277 .414 .542
vs RHP .258 .378 .495

Yet another good reason to bat him 4th between Utley and Howard.

Utley's career splits:

vs LHP .277 .361 .487
vs RHP .308 .388 .568
Split -.030 -.028 -.080
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Howard's:

vs LHP .245 .349 .539
vs RHP .284 .403 .637
Split -.039 -.054 -.098
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

bisenius is disappointing so far but his line is funny with 11 hits, innings. Ks and BBS

kind of odd

There's not really a single player on the IronPigs who is a legit prospect. Pretty much only Happ and maybe Swindle should even have a shot at the Majors this year barring major injuries. I'd love to see Blackley or Kline turn it around but I'm not hopeful on either.

Chase's LHP splits are slightly skewed by a learning curve:

2008 (92 PA): .278/.359/.620
2007 (233 PA): .318/.427/.500
2006 (249 PA): .301/.394/.463
2005 (155 PA): .219/.348/.469

Hopefully he can continue that progress this year.

Happ and Swindle should get shots at some point this year. I imagine Happ by necessity since someone on the staff will get injured.

Overholt is getting a lot of attention, but he sounds like Yoel Hernandez.

LV aside, it's been a positive season for the young prospects. Brown, who's 20 and a HS draft pick, is doing rather well in Lakewood considering he had all of 411 pro ABs coming into the season. Nothing not to like about a 6-5, lefty-hitting outfielder with speed and about three more seasons to develop.

Jaromillo will almost certaintly be a toss-in of a trade at some point this season. Between Ruiz/Coste and Marson at AA, he is expendable but still viewed as a viable backup catcher in the Majors.

I wouldn't be so quick to toss Jaramillo out with the trash. He can become a backup for them. I'd rather fill that position internally than pay Gary Bennett or someone to do it.

I'm not tossing him out...I'm thinking of it as using excess at one position to fill another void...Ruiz can be the backup to Marson just as easily as Jaromillo.

I'd like to see Castro bring down his walks. If he does, I want him to get anotheer chance in the bullpen once someone goes down out there.

Castro's been getting killed ever since they moved him to the Pen in Reading.

The prospects look good now, but its hard not to remember even a few years ago, where people like Tim Moss, Jake Blalock, and Scott Mitchinson were considered in the Phils' top 10.

A good point, Dave.

I think Marson is the real deal...that Carrasco, Golson, and Cardenas each have a chance at a good MLB career and that several of the others can and will contribute if healthy.

Marson has really blossomed in the past 2 seasons into a legit star in the making...he's a 4 tool prospect at this point.

I can see from reviewing these stats that Jaramillo bought the "Ryan Howard's Secrets to a Better Batting Average" training DVD set.

Swindle does have amazing splits, but I'm still mighty skeptical that his 55 MPH curveball is going to fool big league hitters for very long. However, it might take one or two times around the league for hitters to catch onto his gimmick, so I can definitely imagine him having some early success. If my theory is right, the time to call him up would be around August, so as to get optimum value from what I believe will be his brief success.

The Uber-curve worked for Greinke in his first year...then got crushed his second...now he no longer throws it.

I agree with BAP's take on Swindle, he will probably have good value when first called up, so save it in case someone like Madson or Seanez takes a trip to the DL and we need to patchwork the later innings a bit.

I'm a big Joel Naughton guy. Would be nice to see a Marson/Naughton, right/left hitting duo behind the plate some day. He has been hitting around .300 most the year, and has thrown out something like 16 of 37 base stealing attempts this year. He has been the primary catcher with Lakewood while serving as fellow Aussie and Blue Claws No.1 and ace Drew Naylor's catcher there. Naylor lead all of minor league baseball in strike outs this season.

I like that Dominic Brown turned down a scholarship to be a WR at U. of Miami to sign with the Phils.

I never get why guys would choose Football over baseball. I played both in HS and personally I'd much rather play baseball and attempt to make millions than football where the average career is much shorter and the risk of injury much higher...

BedBeard: Dom Brown is a rare case of the Phils paying above slot. He fell to the 20th round because everyone thought he was going to play football at Miami. But the Phils paid him way over 20th round money and he signed. He is similar to Golson, except with a much better learning curve. Frankly, I like his chances of being an impact player some day better than I like Golson's.

Another is Jiwan James, who was slated to play WR at u of Fl. Phils grabbed him and he's pitching, but not too well, in Low A. He was a two way player they chose to utilize as a pitcher.

How about that Michael Taylor, I remember being psyched about this pick in the 5th round last year and then dissapointed when he showed nothing in his first brief minor league season. All the sudden the light has come on for this kid (whether he reverted to his old swing or whatever) and he's mashing. I think he is by far our best offense prospect based on potential alone. He's huge, can run, and he can really really hit.

Taylor was HIGHLY touted out of HS, but was considered unsignable, so he went to Stanford. He does have the kind of tools the Phils like. I like what i'm seeing so far.

Not sure if this was brought up yet, but Philadelphia Magazine has a big article up about the Phillies ownership group.

http://www.phillymag.com/articles/the_phantom_five/

(found via
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/attytood/Revealed_The_Phillies_owners.html)

"The prospects look good now, but its hard not to remember even a few years ago, where people like Tim Moss, Jake Blalock, and Scott Mitchinson were considered in the Phils' top 10."

But those 3 were not prospects, they were canaries in a coal mine to show us how bad the organization was at the time. The Phils have developed an amazing core of top-flight players this decade but the drop-off beyond that has been pretty severe. It looks like they are building nice depth, even if the top level is devoid of prospects.

Edmundo, great line: "they were canaries in a coal mine to show us how bad the organization was at the time." I guess Adam Eaton is an $8 million a year canary!

The batting prospects are watching the ML Phils too much - TOO MANY K's

If trashing Burrell at beerleaguer will bring him out of his slump, will doing the reverse have the opposite effect on Feliz?

Do you think it's just coincidence that Feliz is hitting (a bit) better since I started posting in defense of him here?

Can someone explain to me why Gordon is batting?

Just checking to see if this thing is on.

Just checking to see if this thing is on.

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