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Wednesday, May 14, 2008


Trade him to a contender than face him closing in the playoffs. That'd be Phlly luck for you.

Here's the other point. $12 million is a lot to pay Myers in 2009 when Hamels' arbitration looms, and with raises coming to many other players.

Weitzel- your memory and my memory must be the same in regards to Phillies starting pitchers, because it seems Kendick, Moyer, or even Eaton at times suffer from lack of command and early runs but end up notching an okay performance. (Obviously this doesn't happen every game, as evidence by their inflated era's).

I think I would only do this if you are going to definitely sign Lidge long-term and are getting a no question #2 in return.

10 million a year seems pretty expensive for a closer, especially with injury problems. That would be tied for 5th highest in the league. I doubt his trade value as closer would be very high at all...

Relief pitchers
The highest-paid relief pitchers, by average annual value:
Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10)
Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)
Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)
Billy Wagner, $10,750,000 (2006-09)
Eric Gagne, $10,000,000 (2008)
Francisco Rodriguez, $10,000,000 (2008)
B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)
Jason Isringhausen, $8,000,000 (2005-08)
Todd Jones, $7,000,000 (2008)
Brad Lidge, $6,350,000 (2008)
Danys Baez, $6,333,333 (2007-09)
Trevor Hoffman, $6,333,333 (2006-08)
Chad Cordero, $6,200,000 (2008)
Tom Gordon, $6,000,000 (2006-08)
Kyle Farnsworth, $5,666,667 (2006-08)
Octavio Dotel, $5,500,000 (2008-09)
Brian Fuentes, $5,050,000 (2008)

I know RSB will chime in favor of moving Myers. I have to say that if the Brewers did offer a young starter and another decent 1-2 prospects, I would be very tempted to move Myers at this point. Maybe a gamble but at this point the likelihood of Myers being here after 2009 is pretty remote and better to get some players who will help the Phils sooner than in 3-4 years.

Still willing to see where Myers stands around Memorial Day (should have had 10 or 11 starts under his belt by then), but I have to say I am thought he would at least post solid numbers as a 2 (my prediction I think was an ERA around 3.85 with 13-14 wins).

MG: "I know RSB will chime in favor of moving Myers."

Only if we can get CJ Henry in return!

I'm not quite ready to endorse the idea of trading Myers. If teams perceive Myers as a closer, then what caliber starting pitcher would be equal value in a trade? Dave Bush? Jeff Suppan? Nate Robertson? Jarrod Washburn? I know Myers has stunk, but I still think he has more upside than anyone we would get for him in a trade. I agree with MG: Memorial Day would be a pretty good time to take stock of the situation with Myers. For now, I think the Phillies have to hope that he straightens his act out. We already have 2 starters, in Moyer and Eaton, who are strong candidates to be replaced.

The huge flaw in Everett's thinking is that with Gallardo out for the season, the Brewers cannot afford to give up any of their major league pitchers or near-ready minor league pitchers. So you're talking a prospect that's 2-3 years away. A quick look shows only one legit prospect who fits that description: Jeremy Jeffress.

He's a 2006 1st rounder, a hard-throwing (97 mph) righty (in contrast to the tons of finesse pitchers in the Phillies Pharm system) who is working on his curve and changeup.

The bad news: He's currently suspended for multiple positive tests for marijuana.

Bottom line: There is no other pitcher in the Brewers system worth talking about and the Brewers can't afford to trade a major leaguer, so this is absolutely not happening, at least where the key guy coming here is a pitcher. And, if it's not a pitcher, why bother?

I think clout has got it 100% right in his analysis above. So, the question then: what do we give up for a replacement starter? a cut has to be made somewhere.

It may be fun to bat around the idea of moving Brett Myers for a solid package of prospects and/or young MLB talent, but it's not going to happen during the season. I look at Myers and see a heap of potential, but for the most part unfullfilled potential. Everytime he takes the mound I think this may be the day he figures "it" out and everything falls into place.

Hamels is good too, for giving up some early runs (usually homers) and then settling down for the next 6-7 innings.

The other consideration is that the Phillies could very well have major bullpen problems next year, with Lidge and Gordon both prospective free agents. I was never all that enamored with Myers as closer, but he may be the best option they have next year. And, even if the Phillies do resign Lidge, Myers could at least take over Gordon's setup role.

Couple of commments on Trading Myers:

1. What's makes anyone think that another team would want Myers as a closer? He wasn't even that dominant in the role last year when he had his fastball and now he's hit or miss at even breaking 90 MPH with it.

2. No team would ever give up a #2 pitcher for Brett Myers (a middle rotation guy at best).

3. Teams that have a #2 or #3 guy to give up don't need a closer because they aren't going anywhere or they already have one. Milwaukee doesn't have anyone to give up with Sheets an impending free agent and Gallardo out for the year and every other team in contention that may need a closer already has one or wouldn't be able to afford losing a starter anyway.

4. No one is gonna offer a package of prospects for Myers that would immediately help the Phillies this year anyway and they need to make a run now...not 2 years from now.

I think everyone is hugely overrating Brett Myers trade value. He's never really been a dominant pitcher and he has a poor reputation outside of Philly as a wife-beater (untrue but it stuck) and as being lazy.

Untrue? What did I miss?

NE: I agreed with every word of your analysis until you made the ridiculous assertion that the wife-beating allegation was untrue. The incident happened right in public and was reported by numerous witnesses. The fact that the DA dismissed the charges does not make it untrue. It clearly WAS true.

It does seem that the Phils are down at least a run in every game esspecially at home.

If Myers can be traded as a closer what about the Indians. They've been closing by committee recently and have several young pitchers who are major league ready.

NE, ditto to bap on the wife-beater rap. He may not be a wife-beater anymore, but he did it.

As far as him being lazy is concerned:

Just look at his waistline!

So, I agree with you, except on the w-b rap.

The Phillies would only get fair value for Myers if another team was convinced they could work with him and convince him not to be such a knucklehead.

Yes, Brett, you're a knucklehead for showing up overweight, not doing what the coaches suggest, and ultimately wasting your talent.

It's just plain stupid!

b_a_p, very valid points about next year's 'pen, although I see an even bigger temper tantrum coming if Myers was to be asked to be Lidge's set up man (what other set up men make $12MM, anyway?).

While I think that the starter "preparation" and work ethic isn't quite Myers' forte, I believe that his biggest infatuation with picthing out of the 'pen is actually the notoriety of being the bad a$$ closer, and pitching 3 outs, racking up saves, building some sort of reputation that can be used to leverage another big payday.

When it comes down to it, I'd bet you Gordon would much rather be closing, too. He's just mature enough to realize what is needed of him and what his talent at this stage of his career is able to provide.

Myers is not going to be a setup man here.
You said it right-"what other set up men make $12MM, anyway"

Everyone is making decent points about Myers. Fact- he sulked when put back in the rotation. Fact- he beat his wife, but charges were dropped. Fact- he seem all too caught up the pageantry (music, goatee, fist pumps) of being a closer. Fact- he doesn't take coaching well, often not agreeing with the gameplan set before him in terms of how to face batters and how to condition. Wow, how is it that I still like this guy and root for him to succeed?

The sad truth about Myers is that he just doesn't have the mental makeup to fully realize his potential as a dominant starting pitcher. He just doesn't do the work he needs to. He whines and complains too much. He says stupid things to the media. He goofs off during his off days. He comes off as a petulant child, flouting the game plans put in place for him by Dubee, et al., all while smiling to the coaches' faces, saying he will do the work required of him.

That said, he has amazing stuff, and he was a team player by going to the 'pen when the Phils needed him in a pinch. Quite simply, he should be a closer. Starting pitching is just too strenuous mentally for him. I can't see what the Brewers could give in exchange, but if he's not moved this year, I'd like to see him back in the pen next year.

Brett Myers is unfortunately a mental midget...many players are, it's just in their personality.

I agree with most of the comments here about Myers' trade value (particularly his salary as a closer vs. starter) and the likelihood of his getting moved in season are pretty slim a best.

At this point though, I doubt Myers will ever "get it" in a Phils uniform. Going to be really interested to see what role he plays with the Phils next year or if they don't just decide to move him this offseason.

The one thing that has not been mentioned is what effect pitching hurt potentially had on Myers' arm and just the issue of him already having logged a bunch of innings on his arm already since he came up so early. That compounded with Myers' age might mean that he is no longer the flamethrower that he was earlier in his career.

The question is Myers' capable of making the pitching adjustments and training regimens sacrifices necessary to remain a hard thrower over the course of 6 or 7 innings. Ultimately, I would have to say no.

Incredibly, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we pick up Gordon's $4.5mil option for next year. If he keeps pitching the way he has it's obviously a no-brainer.

****The incident happened right in public and was reported by numerous witnesses. The fact that the DA dismissed the charges does not make it untrue. It clearly WAS true.****

Oh I know...I was actually living in Boston when it happened and got to see all the interviews about it on NESN. It was meant to be more tongue-in-cheek than anything referring to the charges being dropped.

I admit when I'm wrong, and I've been dead wrong about Tom Gordon so far this season (aside from opening day of course). If Gordon stays "healthy" all season long and keeps racking up the holds and has an era aroud 3.5-4, the 4.5 million dollar option will be an easy decision.

Carson: At what point do you give up on Myers's potential? Maybe he needs a change of scenery. Maybe he needs to go somewhere that needs him. But right now we're wanting him to be a #2 starter, and he's not living up to it. We don't even need a #2 in return, a #3 or #4 would be just fine, as long as it freed up a bunch of cash and gave the FO some wiggle room to make another move at some point this season.

****If Myers can be traded as a closer what about the Indians. They've been closing by committee recently and have several young pitchers who are major league ready.****

Interesting idea actually. Problem with the right now is two-fold:

1. CC Sabathia is a free-agent next year and they don't know that they will be able to resign him.

2. Carmona has been very erratic this year.

Combined, they might not want to get rid of a younger starter with the uncertainly they are facing in their rotation.

Of all of the current Phils, I do have the hardest time rooting for Myers. He just strikes me as the stereotypical athlete buffoon who never grew up and gets by when he is younger just because he is so ridiculously talented.

This is some of the best, well-reasoned, level-headed discussion we've had on BeerLeaguer in awhile.

I don't know that it's preparation more than attention span. I think he has a hard time sticking to a plan and establishing pitches, as we've discussed earlier. He'd rather be a closer because a closer can mix it up for an inning. The velocity issue is another problem.

GM: "This is some of the best, well-reasoned, level-headed discussion we've had on BeerLeaguer in awhile."

You're wrong. You have no idea what you're talking about. You choose to ignore the facts in front of you. I can't believe you'd even weigh in on the relative quality of this discussion.

Myers did reach his potential. In 2006 he was a top 30 starter in MLB based on ERA, and he did that pitching at CBP. So that's a #2 starter for a playoff team. That's all we need him to be again. Whether his closer foray last year either hurt his arm or his head enough to prevent him from reverting to that is up for debate.

Heard someone WIP talking about Floyd and his potential. That is a completely different situation though than with Myers.

I already think the argument about Myers' "potential" has been pretty much answered. Guys in their 6th or 7th season don't really change all that much. You have a pretty good idea of what is ceiling is as a starter.

Maybe I wrong and another organization would get Myers to become more dedicated to his craft and make better adjustments including using his curve more and trying to challenge hitters less with his fastball but I doubt it.

Pretty obvious that Dubee doesn't think highly of Myers at this point and if you read between the lines of what Cholly says about Myers you get the impression that Cholly is just trying to make the most of a difficult situation.

Gordon is hands down the surprise of the season. Howard hitting .160 is much less of a surprise than how Gordon is missing bats. He's over halfway to his 2007 strikeout total.

I agree about Sabathia and his pending free agency. The Phils should propose a trade of Myers for Sabathia.

Would the Phils management be willing to pay that kind of money?

So Dubee and Myers don't get along...Myers needs to swallow his pride and listen to the coach. Doesn't matter if he thinks Dubee is wrong, that's what you have to do as a ballplayer.

"You're wrong. You have no idea what you're talking about. You choose to ignore the facts in front of you. I can't believe you'd even weigh in on the relative quality of this discussion."

CJ - when you post stuff like this it just shows what an idiot you are! Clearly there is no place on beerleaguer for senseless sarcastic comments meant to denigrate our meaningless squabbling over trivial matters! The next thing you know you'll be comparing Anna Benson to Hot Heidi!


Joe K: Putting aside that that trade is unrealistic, as far as Sabathia's impending free agency. I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole... or more precisely a more than a 4 yr contract. I think the Indians are handling it perfectly (4yrs/68mil offer, I believe). A pitcher his size with that much tread on his tires would scare the living daylights out of me as a GM.

Incidently, since I will be out until well into the game chat tonight, I'll have to say this now...
Myers - hah! Who'd want him? He's worthless. Especially against the Braves. Especially at CBP. Especially in the second week of May in leap years. Worthless.

And the Phils' lineup? So what if they got 13 hits off a lefty last night. They probably used them all up for the rest of the month. All of them, worthless.

(Parker, got anything to add?)

Actually, responding for real -
I would be really careful about trading Myers at this point. I'm not sure anyone is likely to offer - or yield - a package close to his value.

Then again, I'm not sure anyone really knows his value. Right now he's not been pitching particularly well. But he can be filthy if not malevolent. He has abominable presence with the press, but seems to function reasonably well with his team-mates. He does not seem to care much about working on his craft, but he has an incredible competitive desire to win.

I don't think we should trade Myers. He won't stay this bad all season, although he might not return to 05-06 form. He's giving up a lot of homers - even more than he normally does - and once those go down, his ERA should drop as well. Of course, if the additional HRs are a result of changed throwing mechanics, they might not go down as much as expected.

Dave X - I don't have the specific pitching data but all of Myers peripheral stats really aren't that bad or out of line from his career stats. The thing that has killed him this year he giving up HRs by the truckload.

If he is able to tune that down to his career levels, his ERA would probably drop a run and he would start picking up some more Ws.

Why does everyone keep saying that Myers is horrible in CBP?

Here's his 2008 Home/Road split:

Home: 3.00 ERA
Road: 8.18 ERA

He's actually been really good at home this year.

He's on pace to allow 49 HRs this year...there is no way he allows that many. He has to improve at some point this season.

What's the over/under on days before we see J.A. Happ? I'd guess he'll start a game within a month. Depending on how that goes, it might make the Phils more comfortable with the idea of moving Myers.

Anyway, with our bullpen, I don't even care who starts for us!

**** don't have the specific pitching data but all of Myers peripheral stats really aren't that bad or out of line from his career stats. The thing that has killed him this year he giving up HRs by the truckload.****

That's a pretty accurate statement...His K/9 rate is right on par for his years as a starter...K/BB is about the same (a tad lower but still respectable), #P/PA is the same, as is #P/IP.

His BAA against his 20 points above his career average and about 40 points above his peak seasons and his HR rate has skyrocketed (I see these as related) Basically he's just leaving too many balls out over the plate and he's getting killed because of it.


I only said that because that's where he's pitching tonight.

I bet Chipper has at least 13 RBIs tonight. In the first inning. Escobar will lift his career average over .400 befor the 4th. And Matt Diaz will hit three grand slams. In the seventh.

sifl: I'm almost hoping for a strange rain-out scenario that forces us to find an emergency starter. We could try out Happ in that situation.

To Andy: My apologies.

Funny thing is I think Brett actually gets pumped to pitch in front of the home crowd...he's got a great ERA over the past 3 years at CBP (3.95 I believe not counting 08). He actually seems to like pitching there.

P.S. Am I the only one who hates Larry "Chipper" Jones?

It seems to me like Myers is a guy who really needs a change of scenery and might thrive on another team. The problem is getting equal value for him in a trade. They'd really need to find someone similar who has the talent but needs a change. I don't know who that is, but I'm sure that it's not Barry Zito. He just sucks now.

On a (somewhat) unrelated note, Myers strikes me as the kind of guy who will make something like $50 million+ throughout his baseball career yet somehow end up broke when he's 50. I'm convinced he's that stupid.

I can't stand Larry Jones.

The notion that we should trade Myers is a bad one - we need pitching and he's not even close to our worst starter, or at least I don't expect him to be over the course of an entire season. Moreover, we are unlikely to find a partner who will trade major league caliber pitching (instead of prospects) to get pitching. Everybody in the race needs arms.

To me, the most likely scenario that brings a starter here is a trade with someone in June who is looking at finishing out of the race who has a starter going into free agency that they can't afford. To get that starter, the Phils probably need to do a three-way trade moving Burrell (they can win without him, but not without better starting pitching, last year notwithstanding) to an AL contender looking for another bat, and that AL contender needs to deal its prospect(s) to the also-ran for its rent-a-pitcher.

Is everyone, like me, horrified to see what kind of pitcher Brett Myers will show us in the playoffs? Assuming the Phils get there.

Flamer Jones sucks!!

Btw, I would look into trading Myers. If you could pry Manny Parra from the Brew Crew (yes, I know if '08 numbers aren't that great, but he did look pretty decent when called up last year) along with maybe another bullpen prospect or two, I say go for it.

Of course the Phils won't do this. They tend to overvalue their own and end up with a handful of beans to show for it.

I, too, loathe Larry. That's why he's gonna hit seven HRs tonight, if you know what I mean.

Not to rain on the parade of all the wheelers and dealers, but no team is ready to do a block-buster because nobody is out of contention yet. The only way someone will be interested is if they think they're getting a steal. Which they might be if the Phils are their trading partner.

Second rainstorm on the marching band: the Phils are not going to trade for pitching prospects. They think they have them. The FO thinks we're chalk full of prime beef hot-tossers.

Andy- I must ask, what's up the Moravian Open Door link you have going with your name?

I thought with the way he was performing this year, I wouldn't have to pull this back out:

Pat Burrell has a FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE.

Thank you...moving on...

Andy - I hope part of that reverse psychology works. Matt Diaz is one of "Those Guys" who always kills us. I wouldn't be THAT surprised if he did have three dingers tonight.

Carson - my favorite charity. Since I don't have my own website, and it's not obtrusive, I thought I'd use it for a good purpose. It's a non-profit that helps older, formerly homeless people get their act back together so they can live independently. Good place.

CJ - you forgot to use the html tags; I believe you meant to say that PtB has a

{But correct me if I'm wrong.}

Andy: Yes, you're right. I'm also working on a font size tag that will make it look huge.

C'mon Jason, put up the game talk header. This one has been in the dumper for awhile.

Her's some ideas for future header topics:

Let's trade Feliz.

Let's trade Werth.

Let's trade Chooch.

Let's trade Coste. (That'll get Davethom back!)

Let's trade Kendrick to Japan, ha, ha!

Let's stand pat. That's sure to be controversial.

Let's demote Carson and make clout the GM.

What's more fun...seeing the Rox continue to lose, or seeing the Muts continue to lose?

Walrond had another good start last night, they may bring him up instead of Happ.

I'm not at all in favor of trading Myers during the season. You might get prospects for him, but you aren't going to get a better return to insert immediately into the rotation. That might sit well if the Phillies were playing like San Diego, but obviously they're going to contend all year and weakening the roster while the season goes on isn't defensible. Myers is still one of the strongest pieces of the rotation, and I don't think his ERA will be hovering around 5 much longer.

In the off-season, however, considering the contractual situations (his and others), recognizing that some other team will over pay for him in another year but that the Phillies absolutely should not - *that's* the time to whisk his frumpy ass out of town. You almost never make a trade for fair or equal value on both ends during the regular season. The winter is the time to talk about it.

I see Myers' problems as fluky-the result of a high HR rate (2.14/9 IP) that won't last.

Yes, he's alwyas tended to give up the long ball (31 in '04 and '05, 29 in '06), but his rate this year, given that his stuff is still good enough to maintain a K rate (7.5/9 IP) near his career norm, means there's little to worry about. Myers will be fine.

How about Chad Durbin to the rotation and Brett Myers to the bullpen? C. Durbin has said before that it is preference to pitch in the rotation and while he didn't have a great spring training, he has pitched very well this season. Myers wants to be the bullpen, so this move would make the two of them happy, although Myers still wouldn't be the closer.

Another possibility is putting Happ in the rotation, trading madson for a LOOGY, have Myers replace madson's spot in the bullpen, and sending condrey to AAA.

Yet another idea is that if one of Eaton/Moyer/Kendrick is a huge problem and needs to be quickly replaced, C. Durbin and Happ could both be in the rotation with Myers in the bullpen who could start if needed.

Brett Myers' performance -- downright ugly! He either struck guys out (he recorded 6 strikeouts in his 4 1/3 innings) or got pounded. Two bombings in a row. I think that I'd go for a deal to market Myers as a closer off of last year. Maybe they get starting pitching prospects.

Brett Myers' performance -- downright ugly! He either struck guys out (he recorded 6 strikeouts in his 4 1/3 innings) or got pounded. Two bombings in a row. I think that I'd go for a deal to market Myers as a closer off of last year. Maybe they get starting pitching prospects.

It's obvious they've ruined Myers by switching him back and forth. He needs a fresh start. I think the best route is a three way trade. Myers to a team that needs a closer for prospects and the prospect to the A's for Joe Blanton and Blanton to Philly. Of course, Lidge has to be resigned to unload Myers.

Yes, because we all know how the A's love to be duped on trades...What do you feel Myers trade value to be? He's a struggling middle-of-the-rotation pitcher who is owed alot of money this year and especially next year...not exactly blue-chip trade bait.

We wouldn't be able to get a trade that gives us Joe Blanton without tossing some legit prospects in and that would mean getting rid of someone like Carrasco and/or Marson which would be a big mistake. Our farm system isn't exactly overrunning with talent the last I checked.

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