Beer nuts: Marson leads Eastern League in hitting

Reading catcher Lou Marson, 21, is hitting .344 and riding a 12-game hitting streak. As the R-Phils press office reports, he would be in elite company if he can keep up the pace.

The last catcher to win an Eastern League batting title was two-time All-Star Victor Martinez of the Cleveland Indians back in 2002, when he also named EL Player of the Year. In the last 12 games, Marson is hitting .418 (18-43) with two homers and 17 RBIs, which includes a grand slam. Marson, along with outfield prospect Greg Golson, are featured in today’s Inquirer. Marson and the R-Phils fell to Erie 9-7 yesterday. They return home tonight to begin a three-game homestand with Harrisburg. Carlos Carrasco gets the start.

Errors infect Reading: The R-Phils have committed 32 errors in their last 28 games and rank next-to-last in the Eastern League in fielding percentage, according to the Reading Eagle.

Pitchers slumping: After a blazing start and call-up to Double-A, Antonio Bastardo has run into problems with his control, walking 11 in his last two starts. And in the bullpen, fast-tracked lefties Josh Outman and Fabio Castro were roughed up this week.

Triples: Last season, the Phillies ranked in the top three with 41 total triples, including 20 by Jimmy Rollins. This season, they’re near the bottom, with six total coming from six different players, none of them named Jimmy.

Swindle featured: Beerleaguer favorite R.J. Swindle is the subject of a long article on MiLB.com. Check it out here.

Win Shares added: Recently, the Hardball Times activated Win Shares for the 2008 season, the signature stat of Bill James. The Hardball Times formula isn’t exactly the same; frankly, I don’t really follow all that goes into the formula. Win Shares are a good tool for measuring overall contribution in a general sense, and it serves as an excellent resource when comparing players from others teams or by position. For example, remember all that hoopla about Pedro Feliz being the worst offensive regular third baseman in the NL last season? Well, history is set to repeat itself. Feliz’s 0.1 batting Win Shares is right at the bottom among regulars. A permanent link to Win Shares has been added to the top left sidebar.

Trust the eyes: Carlos Ruiz is hitless in his last seven ABs, but the numbers don’t reveal the whole story lately. Chooch made several outstanding defensive plays in the Colorado series and has also been the man behind the plate for the latest strong efforts by Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton. ... Speaking of Eaton, the maligned right-hander has been solid ever since Rod Barajas hit that grand slam in the second inning on May 17. Both Kendrick and Eaton have been pitching aggressively. Still, there is one school of thought that believes Eaton has little or no shot at helping them in October, so why beat around the bush and deny opportunities for prospects like J.A. Happ to develop?

Comments

[phillieanthropist]

I'm going to say something ludicrous: Maybe Eaton can be Myers the rest of the way. Myers appears not to want the job.

Separately, I think this weekend is going to show us whether we're going to get our hands around this division and step up or going to continue playing for playoff berth from middle of pack. I'd like this to be a statement series, of course.

[clout]

NEPhilaPhan: Just exactly what kind of big league player do you project Golson to be?

[NEPhilliesPhan]

You heard it here...and I've been saying it for months now...Marson is gonna be an all-star at some point. He's got ability and the drive to do it.

Outman is puzzling...he was really good his first 10 appearances as a reliever and then he got crushed last week. I'm guessing that somebody caught a sign on him or that he's tipping one of his pitches. Or he just had a bad week.

Bastardo is running into the problem of only having 2 pitches. If he can't locate his fastball he cant use it to set up his change and then he's screwed. They just sit fastball on him and force him to get it over the plate and they then crush it. If he can develop his slider he's got a shot.

I think we'll see Swindle in a Phillies uniform at some point this season...if he keeps up his performance.

[J.R. King]

No need to rush Happ into the rotation. Starters inevitably see time on the disabled list. Unfortunately, there will come a time this season when both Durbin and Happ will have to make starts.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

NEPhilaPhan: Just exactly what kind of big league player do you project Golson to be?

Optimistically...a Shane Victorino type guy who brings plus defense and a plus arm with good speed on the basepathes. He'll probably be capable of 40 SBs in the majors and a .270/.280 avg with around .320/.330 OBP with some pop. Basically a good complimentary player but not an all-star. That's my high hopes for Golson at this point. He could also very easily be the next Michael Bourn/Joey Gathright...60 SBs and a .220 avg.

[BobbyD]

it seems like the phillies will actually have some trade bait at this year's deadline, should they need it. Marson/Ruiz, Werth/Victorino, Carassaco, even Kendrick if the trade is for a top flight starter

[MG]

Agreed with King. This rotation hasn't had an injury yet and it is inevitable that eventually they will. Almost impossible to have a season where 5 guys make a majority of the starts.

If anything, the real issue is with Myers. No longer a question of whether he can be a No. 2 starting pitcher.The question is how many more starts do the Phils give Myers before you might have to pull him out of the rotation is he continues to pitch so damn poorly.

Given that the Phils lack of options (yes I am discounting that Happ can be much better than a marginal starter), I say you have to leave Myers there until at least the All-Star break.

Gives Myers another 6-7 starts to right the ship and prove he is still will be a productive starter this year. If he doesn't pitch better by then, than the Phils might have to consider making a move at the trading deadline to bring in another starter or really rolling the dice with some internally (Carrasco?)

[NEPhilliesPhan]

I will be disgusted if they trade Marson...He could be the Phillies Catcher for a long long time. He's only 21 and already performing at a high level. We won't get anything worthwhile in return anyway for him...at best a #4 starter who will be gone in a year.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

MG: than the Phils might have to consider making a move at the trading deadline to bring in another starter or really rolling the dice with some internally (Carrasco?)

From what most scouts have said...including those of other organizations: Carrasco simply isn't ready to pitch in the majors. He doesnt have the consistency even from pitch-to-pitch to make it right now.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

For the record, when we say "pull Myers from the rotation", do we mean "make him our setup guy"? It's not his call to make, and I don't know if I care about his feelings much, but I can't see him being too thrilled about going to the bullpen and NOT being the closer.

[KevinLin]

Can we just give Swindle his shot soon? Seriously watching this guy on the OronPigs is crazy. He threw one of those 51-mph curves right down the middle his last appearance and froze the hitte, but he also froze the ump and he called it a ball. But another hitter he had down in the count and the hitter was thinking it would be the slow curve and he froze him with a "fastball". The guy can pitch, he has good control and he confuses hitters, can we please give him a shot.

[Steve Jeltz]

BedBeard:

The way the rest of the bullpen is pitching right now, Myers would be the mop-up guy. And if you think he has attitude problems now, imagine what he'd be like if was given Clay Condrey's role.

I've said it before, and I'll keep saying it until it happens: Barring a major injury in the bullpen, the only place Myers is going this season is the DL. I'm sure Ruben and the boys are thinking up phantom injuries as we speak.

[AWH the RBP]

"If I recall correctly, had you posted their numbers over the 7 games preceding Wednesday night's game, they would have showed that the Phils had not gained a game, despite outhitting Florida by 30-40. They made up exactly one game - on Wednesday night - when they had a paltry 6 hits. Funny game. Flipper's theory apparently has more validity over a short span than a long span.

On Burrell, I completely agree that the Phils should want to resign him. I do not believe that they can (or will) do so in the current market. His right handed bat and control of the strike zone are huge for them, even if he's in the middle of his annual slump. However, I think pitching is more important AND I think he will get 4 or 5 years in the AL, a time span in which 1) you can expect his fielding to decline further, and 2) you can reasonably hope to locate a younger right handed hitter."

Mr. Mulcahy, I think you missed my point regarding the stats I posted. flipper's position was that 30 hits ove rthe cousre of a season didn't make much difference. My point in posting the albeit limited stats were that 30 hits does make a difference. That's all.

As far as you point about Burrell is concerned, they are NOT going to "locate a younger right handed hitter" to replace his production at anywhere close to what they are willing to pay. Who's available or going to be available? Matt Holliday (Scott Boras)?

Yes, pitching is more important, but that ain't cheap either.

The point is this ownership/management group has a clear decision to make:

Try to win the whole thing the next 2-3 years, or let talent walk that they cannot replace fast enough or as cheaply (salaries will only go up). If they truly aren't willing to bite the financial bullet for a couple of years in order to take the WS, then 2008 is it. The window closes thereafter.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Steve Jeltz: I've said it before, and I'll keep saying it until it happens: Barring a major injury in the bullpen, the only place Myers is going this season is the DL. I'm sure Ruben and the boys are thinking up phantom injuries as we speak

They way he's pitching right now...I wouldn't want him as a closer or set-up guy.

On Swindle...I think he will be given a shot at some point but his "trick" pitch will only work so long. If you'll recall, Zack Greinke had a similar uber-curve in his rookie season...He would throw his FB around 92-93 and then come back with a 60 MPH curve that absolutely froze big-league hitters. His sophomore campaign (before his mental issues) didn't work so well. He started getting crushed when he tried the uber-curve. The point is that Swindle will likely have only a limited effectiveness (say 1-2 times before hitters start adjusting and crushing him). He would be the perfect 2nd half call up to get the most out of his abilities.

[PB]

Is anyone else concerned that whether Myers is in the starting rotation or not, he has almost no movement on his fastball?

[NEPhilliesPhan]

On Myers FB: YES

[RSB]

Conlin: "Greg Golson, No. 1 [draft pick] in 2004, is batting .320, stealing bases at Reading and is enduring the Big Chill of the Service Clock Stonewall."

Yup.

[Dull]

Steve Degler was saying last night that Golson is hitting something like .470 when he puts the ball in play. For example last night he had two hits and three K's swinging. With two strikes in the count he must swing at anything to avoid being called out on strikes.

[ml]

Saying Swindle is only a trick pitcher is either uninformed or inaccurate. He throws five pitches, all for strikes and neither of his two Ks the other night came off that pitch. He threw various pitches the other night at 52 mph, 62 mph 66 mph, 71 mph, 77mph, 81mph and 84 mph. That's a 32 mph difference from one end of the scale to the other. All of the pitches are moving and the majority of them come in on the black. If that is a "trick" pitcher, then I will take an entire bullpen of them.

[bay_area_phan]

dull: When you strike out 170 times a year, you pretty much have to hit for a ridiculous average on balls put in play, if you want to be a viable player. It's kind of like the Ryan Howard/Jim Thome formula. The difference is that Howard & Thome are always going to hit for high average on balls put in play, because they hit lots of balls over the fence & hit the ball extremely hard. Golson, on the other hand, does not have all that much power, so it's hard for me to believe he can sustain anything remotely close to his present BABIP -- even at the AA level, let alone the majors.

[bay_area_phan]

AWH posted this link near the end of the last thread, but it demands to be reposted. It's a long read, and it doesn't really tells us anything that most of us didn't already know, but it does confirm all of our worst suspicions about the space that the Phillies' owners are in.

http://www.phillymag.com/articles/the_phantom_five/page1

[baxter]

Golson's current numbers as a 23 year old at Reading(.325avg .361obp 6hr 16sb) look awfully similar to Victorino's numbers as a 23 year old at AA Jacksonville, but I don't they're comparable players. Victorino has a .400 OBP and Golson is a free swinger...

The Rays are currently showing how outfielders with range can help a pitching staff...Werth-Golson-Victorino could probably cover as much ground as their trio

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Yes...he throws 5 pitches but how many of those 5 are plus pitches...the curve?, the FB for its movement? He'll likely get his shot and hopefully he doesn't get crushed when it happens.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I think Golson is still 22.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I don't remember who it was, in fact, I think it was someone who doesn't post here regularly, but he(?) was touting Swindle before he was even signed by the Phils, saying "they've gotta check out this guy in Newark!!". Granted, he hasn't been to the majors yet, so the jury's out, but the mystery poster was dead on regarding his ability.

[Mr. Mack]

- From yesterday's thread, in reply to poster Mike Cunningham on the Pat Burrell not being re-signed comment I made...I didn't read it, I heard it on both Sports Radio stations. Once from Gillick and once from Amaro. They both said it was unlikely that Burrell would resign because they were going to have to let someone go in order to keep some payroll stability in order, and PtB being the older player and a defensive liability would be a likely casualty. They also felt that he would not take less money to stay here, and that might be all they could offer him (both interviews were in early April) Besides that, mid season extensions are not a Gillick trade mark either. Jesus, do you want me to date the interview time too, just to satisfy you? Just because you don't hear it or read it yourself, doesn't mean it wasn't stated. FYI: I'm not a poster who makes up crap to get my points across. I do this for fun, not to get into heated debates with guys who enjoy the same Phillies team as I do. I repect other opinions, even if I don't agree with all of them.

- Wow, Padilla must be off the sauce with his numbers looking good so far this season. He is on the same "All Head Case" team with Myers though. No telling when he well self implode.

- Another Ex-Phillie watch...Aaron Rowand BA .341 /OBP .410 /SLG .545 /2B 15 /R 24. Seems so far he is earning his paycheck for SF.

- Myers has, I thought, has shown some slight improvement the last couple of games. In my opinion, his start against the Fish tonight will go a long way in determining if the last couple of games were just me hoping he is looking better or if a trip to the DL is not far fetched. Maybe a 2 week trip to phschyologist's couch is just what he needs instead.

[Sophist]

You have to at least give a guy like Swindle the chance to fail or succeed in the big leagues.

BAP - I don't know if you meant it by what you said, but HR don't count in BABIP since they aren't put in play.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

BB: I think Golson is still 22.

You would be correct...he turns 23 later this year. They might have been referencing BP which goes by calendar year for age.

[Sophist]

Mr Mack - It's interesting that after a quotation about the Mgt. concern for "payroll stability" you once again tout Rowand's 5 yr/$60M deal as a good investment.

It's not 1 yr/$12M or 3/$30M. It's 5/$60M.

His 2007 WARP is triple what BP.com predicts for 2009. They thinkhis VORP will be about 23 this year; 6.4 in 2012 when he'll be 34.

[bay_area_phan]

baxter: Yes they would cover lots of ground, but please tell me that you're not actually advocating a starting 2009 OF of Golson-Vic-Werth. That would be the worst hitting OF that any major league team has fielded in the last 25 years.

Some perspective is in order. Last year, Golson struck out 173 times and walked just 23 in 594 PAs. Assuming the same No. of PAs this year, he's on pace to strike out 160 times with 35 walks. That's extremely modest improvement. His average is .325 only because he has an unsustainably high BABIP. By season's end, his average will be .275 at best, and no one will be talking about him as some sort of future starting outfielder.

Golson's only value to the Phillies is as trade bait. Maybe there's some gullible GM out there who will see his speed, defense, & improved batting average, & be willing to give up something of value for him. But the Phillies had better act quickly before that batting average starts to fall.

[bay_area_phan]

sophist: Actually, I was not aware of that, but that makes sense. I'm a little embarrassed to say that I actually don't know where to find stats like BABIP. I have always computed it by hand -- and the way I've done it is by subtracting strikeouts from ABs, and dividing that number into the number of hits. So, by my methodology, homeruns actually DO count in BABIP.

[Jonesman]

If anybody is obsessed with politics and baseball like me some pretty cool news came out today. My favorite anonymous political pollster/statistician Poblano has revealed himself to be Nate Silver of BP/PECOTA fame. Check it out:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.html

[baxter]

Sometimes high school position players develop plate discipline later in their career. Pitch selection is a skill often learned from college coaches.
Take Rollins for example- early in his career, his strikeout and obp numbers weren't better than Golson's...
I disagree with the notion that Golson doesn't have power. I think he could hit 20-25hr annually...Not great, but he's not a Bourn/Glanville type of CF...If Golson gets stronger and improves his pitch selection, he might even be a 30-30 guy in his prime.

[Sophist]

BAP - baseball-reference.com lists a player's BABIP under his Splits on the player page.

My new favorite online stat tracker is hittrackeronline.com, which tracks all kinds if cool statistics for HR: true distance, standard distance, speed off the bat, etc..

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Wouldn't Golson have been in the same class at Rice as Savery? I think i heard that somehwere.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Baxter: I disagree with the notion that Golson doesn't have power. I think he could hit 20-25hr annually...Not great, but he's not a Bourn/Glanville type of CF...If Golson gets stronger and improves his pitch selection, he might even be a 30-30 guy in his prime.

He is scouted as having power (part of those 5 tools he supposedly has). I think it will develop along with his pitch selection.

[clout]

BAP: That's exactly my point about Golson (from prior thread). NEPhilliesPhan calls it "tremendous strides" but your description of "extremely modest improvement" is more accurate especially considering he's repeating the level.

Regarding the absurd comparison of Golson to Victorino, you only need to look at one stat: K/BB ratio.

Victorino's minor league career K/BB ratio was 2/1. He struck out 100 times only once in 9 seasons.

Golson's career K/BB ratio is an astounding 5/1. He's struck out 100 times EVERY full season he's played. He only played 47 games his first year and was on a 150 strikeout pace for a full season. He's on track to K more than 150 times this season.

Golson and Victorino, my friends, are night and day.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

To clout: Regarding the absurd comparison of Golson to Victorino, you only need to look at one stat: K/BB ratio.

It is not an absurd comparison...both are plus defensively, plus arms, and plus speed. Both are athletes first and ballplayers second. Neither will ever hit 40 HRs though Golson will have more than Vic. That was my comparison.

Fact: Golson has a 70+ arm, Golson has 70+ speed.

Golson strikes out far more but he'll also end up with more power than Vic in the end.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

He got 158 ABs in AA last year. While he's returned to AA this year, it's not like he had a full season there. I don't want to be a reflexive Golson defender-he's got big holes to work on, but the nail shouldn't be put in the coffin yet. I do agree with BAP-he could be solid trade bait, at the right time.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

That's basically all I'm trying to say...Phillies fans tend to be either way too up on their prospects or super down...there's never a middle ground.

[clout]

NEPhilliesPhan: Speed, glove and position work as a comparison. The bat, which is a fairly important component of being a major league player, doesn't remotely work as a comparison. You seem to ignore the significance of a 5/1 K/BB ratio.

BTW, it's worth mentioning another 5-tool Phillies first rounder: Reggie Taylor. His minor league K/BB ratio was better than Golson's.

[clout]

BedBeard: No one's nailing his coffin. He's too young. But his stats to date NOT project him as a successful everyday major leaguer and his progress has been slow. If you have evidence to the contrary I'm all ears.

[bay_area_phan]

baxter writes: "early in his career, [Rollins'] strikeout and obp numbers weren't better than Golson's."

Um . . . are you sure about that? In 2,245 minor league ABs, Rollins had just 265 strikeouts. He had 223 walks and an OBP of .329. In his first 3 years in the majors, Rollins struck out over 100 times (which isn't all that bad when you have 628 ABs in a season), & had strikeout to walk ratios of about 2 to 1.

Golson has twice as many minor league strikeouts as Rollins had in his entire career -- despite nearly 400 fewer ABs. His minor league strikeout to walk ratio is more than 5 to 1, and his OBP is .310. Oh, and by the way, Rollins was already the Phils' starting SS when he was Golson's age.

It is possible that Golson could substantially improve his batting eye over time? Sure, it's possible. But it isn't terribly likely. When you're striking out 170 times per year, barely drawing any walks, and not hitting for any power, it's a pretty good indication that you just don't have the basic skill set to be a major league hitter. Frankly, I think clout's comparison to Corey Patterson is pretty generous -- as Patterson isn't all that bad an all-around hitter.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

All I'm saying is Golson, more than anyone, shouldn't be rushed and he's just 22.

[J. Weitzel]

I like Golson more and more, but let him be. He's having a good season for once. If the Phillies don't want to start his clock, that's fine. He has a future, but would serve almost no purpose on the current team, and Werth will soon return. Where would he play? You sit Vic for Golson? No way! Do they really suffer from having Bohn and Taguchi on the bench? No.

[lekh tizdayen]

As much as I'd like to see the phillies resign burrell, with guys like Michael Taylor and Golson in the minors, there are some potential replacements. An outfield of Jenkins, Vic, Golson, and Werth to start next year is not ideal, but i wouldn't be surprised to see Taylor in the bigs by mid-2009. He's a college product and he's tearing it up in Lakewood. He could easily finish the year in Reading. Golson and Taylor will not come close to replicating Burrell's numbers, but signing Burrell to a four year deal ain't the best idea either. I just wish we could sign him to a two year deal with high salaries a la Andruw Jones, that way we could get rid of him as Hamels is starting to get paid. If they get rid of Burrell they better intend to keep Howard for a while. I also think that if we sign burrell for a longer deal that it should be front loaded so we can trade him easier later. It just seems a waste to let him walk...

[NEPhilliesPhan]

****An outfield of Jenkins, Vic, Golson, and Werth to start next year is not ideal,****

I don't see us winning many playoff games with that outfield next year...where's the Right side power in the lineup?

[mike cunningham]

@MR. Mack -- if you heard that on Sports Talk radio than I apologize. I still find it hard to believe that both Gillick and Amaro would BOTH say they won't be signing him. And it didn't hit the papers, blogs, or tv. But I'll defer to you.

[from the district]

I get why people don't like Golson on this board, but it often times goes overboard. Like BAP claiming he is hitting for "no power"

He is 14th in the League in slugging and first on his team. He's only two points behind Jason Donald in OPS (19th in the league).

I realize that a lot of this is inflated by his high average and BABIP . . . but at some point one will have to recognize that he his hitting well this season, despite the fantastically bad strike out and walk rates.

[The Theory]

"For the record, when we say "pull Myers from the rotation", do we mean "make him our setup guy"? It's not his call to make, and I don't know if I care about his feelings much, but I can't see him being too thrilled about going to the bullpen and NOT being the closer."

If I were in Gillick's shoes and reached the point where I decided Myers was not going to be effective starting, this is what I would do.

1) put him in the bullpen.
2) Give him a couple of closing appearances and hope he is successful.
3) If he is successful try my darnedest to extend Lidge. With Lidge extended, I shop Myers as a top-notch closer as there has got to be a team in need of a good closer. If Lidge does not extend, I'd make Myers just be "ok" with whatever bullpen role assigned to him with the promise he'll be closing next year.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'm sure Lidge would be thrilled to be bumped from the closing role, which he's flourishing in again, so Myers can be put on display as a closer, so he can be traded.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Yeah...that sounds like a great idea...or not.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Yeah...that sounds like a great idea...or not.

[baxter]

Golson strikes out more than Rollins, but he gets on base more than Rollins did early in his career.
I think you're dismissing Golson far too quickly. A year ago, we never would've predicted he'd have a .330avg and .361obp at Reading. Even with the strikeouts, those numbers are very impressive.

I don't think Werth/Jenkins/Golson/Victorino/Dobbs would make a terrible outfield...for a year, at least. None of them would hit 30+ home runs, but all of them could hitting 15+, with a solid average, great team speed and excellent outfield defense. That outfield would probably put up middle of the pack numbers, which with our infield, would be fine.
I like Burrell, but I'd rather spend that money on pitching and Ryan Howard. Under different ownership, Burrell would stay.

[AWH the RBP]

"...If Golson gets stronger and improves his pitch selection"

IF,

IF,

IF,

IF,

IF.

BTW, I think some of you have it wrong. No one on this blog "doesn't like" Golson, or "hate" him either.

It's just that based on his minor league performance so far, we question whether he'll truly be of any value at the MLB level.

We also feel he's being groomed as a potential OF replacement for Burrell, and he has NO SHOT of ever being as productive at the plate as Burrell is. NONE.

If they do not bring Burrell back it will be because of money, period. All the other excuses - declining range in the OF, doesn't do the winter tour, etc. etc. etc. - are exactly that.

I challenge anyone who posts here to come up with a scenario where Burrell is not here in 2009, and they are remotely as productive from the right side of the plate, and not prey to good LHP.

[Sophist]

If Myers continues to struggle, and you want to package him as a closer (hopefully for quality SP, I'd assume), I don't think you'd need for him to show his stuff as a closer again this year. I think you sell him based on his last years' performance. But what do I know.

I think a package involving Myers/MiLB prospects, is the Phils' best bet to get qualtiy SP from outside the ranks. I'd rather give Happ a shot first, though.

[AWH]

Also, please answer the challenge with a payroll number that is less than you project Burrell to earn in 2009.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

W"e also feel he's being groomed as a potential OF replacement for Burrell, and he has NO SHOT of ever being as productive at the plate as Burrell is. NONE."

Next year-NO SHOT. Ever? No idea.

[Morty]

If you have a goal of winning the World Series, you resign Burrell. If you have the goal of remaining in competition for a playoff spot, while ending the year in the black, you do not.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

If Burrell wants 4 years of 13-15 per, what do you do?

[Morty]

Instead you pencil in a starting outfield of Werth, Vic and Jenkins, with Golson as your 4th man.

[Morty]

BB:

Unless, you plan to sign Matt Holiday, or can pull of some other blockbuster replacement, you throw your budget out the window and pay him. The Phillies have no one in the minors or on the ML roster to replace him.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

There are NO other LF available via free agency that are legit replacements...you sign him and bite the bullet on the money.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

that sounds great on paper(blog), Morty, but few NL teams, if any, would do that. I hope they can bring him back for next year, at least. As much as we perceive to know what the Phils are thinking, we DON'T know what PtB is thinking.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

I think Pat wants to stay in Philly but he's not gonna take a significant pay cut to do so. He's vetoed enough trade possibilities to show that he likes Philly.

[bay_area_phan]

baxter: Maybe this is a conversation that should be postponed until about September. If Golson is still hitting .300 then you'll have a far stronger case that he has made substantial progress.

Someone also brought up Michael Taylor, who is hitting .361 at Lakewood. I'm a sucker for stats, so Taylor is a more interesting prospect to me than Golson -- though Lakewood is a long way from the major leagues (and clout will point out that he's much too old for the league he's playing in). Unlike Golson, Taylor rarely strikes out and looks like he could be a good hitter. His stats were certainly nothing special in 3 years at Stanford and, for a guy who is 6'6, 250, he has shown a woeful lack of power. But his power numbers have gone up this year, and his average has soared. A guy like this, who has already mastered the fundamental skill of strike zone management, stands a much better chance of long-term improvement than a guy like Golson -- even if he's starting off far behind Golson in terms of age. I would certainly like to see what he could do at the next level.

[baxter]

btw- Phillies are #2 in ESPN's new power rankings

[Bedrosian's Beard]

From what i've read, Taylor will be promoted after the draft. Additionally: He was a top 10 prospect coming out of HS, but committed to playing at Stanford, where he did ok, but changed his swing. He's gone back to more of his old swing and is paying dividends. I agree, he could be the real deal, more than Golson and needs to be moved up.

[Sophist]

Baxter - They're #7 on BP.com.

[Mr. Mack]

I stated: "Another Ex-Phillie watch...Aaron Rowand BA .341 /OBP .410 /SLG .545 /2B 15 /R 24. Seems so far he is earning his paycheck for SF."

So Sophist, where the heck did I say anything about we should have signed Rowand for 5yr/$60mil? I said so far he was earning his paycheck. Lighten up dude. If it's a fight your looking for, try tuning in to the MMA Network TV debut on CBS. It should be pretty violent by all acounts.

[RSB]

AWH - how can you possibly make the claimn that Golson has 'no shot ever' to be as productive as Burrell? For one thing, he's 22 and in AA. For another, he's a completely different type of player who has the ability to exhibit a far greater variety of skills than Burrell. It is really a stretch to claim you can *know*, at this early stage, just how Golson will project as a major leaguer. Not only does there exist the possibility that his strike zone knowledge will improve as his career goes along, but there is also the *probablity* that his power will improve as he matures. He might look like a Mike Cameron from here, but I see no reason to disallow for the possibility that he could become a Torii Hunter. Or, yes, he could turn out to be Reggie Taylor. You don't know - you *can't* know.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I guess when someone posts an "ex phillie watch" it's to prove their point/rub it in/whatever else, not "hey look at him doing well". Good for Rowand.

[baxter]

nothing against burrell; i'd just rather keep howard. you know the Philles won't keep them both.

[Andy]

Florida's last seven days in statistical review:
Hitting
Season
BA .260 OBP .326 SLG .453 OPS .779
Seven days
BA .227 OBP .322 SLG .427 OPS .749

Pitching
Season (52 games)
BA .259 OBP .337 SLG .404 OPS .741
Seven days (6 games)
BA .268 OBP .346 SLG .469 OPS .815

The season's numbers are fairly pedestrian to start with. Lately, they've been worse. The Phils should be looking forward to their arrival.

[BENTZ]

I found a reference to Val Pascucci on mlbtraderumors.com...he recently signed with the Mets and is playing at New Orleans. Here are his numbers thus far:

21 G| 79 AB | 23 H | 7 2B | 7 HR | 16 RBI | .380 OBP | .646 SLG | 1.026 OPS | .291 AVG

Uh yeah, that's a little better than he was doing with the Pigs...if he gets called up and hurts the Phils this year...

[Mr J]

What I have learned from following the Phillies for the past 55 years:

The season is long.....

Baseball is a game of streaks....

To project a season on May 30th is kind of foolish, but still a lot of fun.....

[NEPhilliesPhan]

**** He might look like a Mike Cameron from here, but I see no reason to disallow for the possibility that he could become a Torii Hunter. Or, yes, he could turn out to be Reggie Taylor. You don't know - you *can't* know.****

Mike Cameron was pretty damn good in his prime...gold-glover and all.

[Andy]

Phils last seven days in statistical review
Hitting
Season
.267 .341 .457 .798
Seven days
.315 .392 .534 .926

Pitching
Season
.267 .334 .419 .752
Seven Days
.280 .330 .425 .755

Over the course of the season, the hitting has barely outstripped the pitching. More recently, while the pitching has been, um, weak (.280 BA against? Yikes!), the batters have, evidently, entered "hittin' season." (Or something.)

The Phils' pitchers should use the current FLA slump to their advantage.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

The Phillies absolutely OWN Mark Hendrickson as well. In 2 starts against us, he's 0-1 with a 12.60 ERA and a .462 BAA.

So I'll go out on a limb and say a 2-0 shutout by the Marlins tonight...

[GM-Carson]

Personally I can't wait for the Great Rock 'n' Roll Swindle to take his tour to Philly.

[Andy]

NEPhan - I agree. Maybe 7 - 0, though. Uggla goes 6 for 4 with 7 HRs.

[Tray]

RSB, I know very little about projecting minor league players, but I think the statheads' argument is that strike zone knowledge is one of those things that usually doesn't improve.

[bay_area_phan]

If Golson looked like Cameron, I'd be a little more enthusiastic about him. To me, he looks like the offensive equivalent of Jose Hernandez, with much better speed but less power. And the idea that Golson could turn into Torii Hunter is far-fetched, to say the least.

I don't mean to be harsh on the guy. If we don't trade him, I'm all for letting him develop on his own timetable, & maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised some day. But when people start talking about him as some sort of replacement for Burrell -- or even Victorino for that matter -- they need to be hit with a strong dosage of reality. Saying that Golson has the potential to turn into Torii Hunter because he's athletic is like saying that the 300-pound girl in your senior class might turn into Christie Brinkley because she has a nice face. It COULD happen, but you're sure as hell not gonna start dating her in anticipation of that day.

[Morty]

BB:

I know I know. However, in the past decade we've basically seen 2 main methods to win. First is having a killer farm system which allows you to control young inexpensive talent, and the second is to spend like crazy. The Phils had a farm system (Hamels, Myers, Utley, Rollins, Howard, Burrell) pay major dividends, but don't have it anymore. So it leaves them with spending big dollars for established veterans if they want to contend for the World Series.

Alternatively, they could trade their established talent to replenish the younger, cheaper talent, but that is known as "rebuilding." Personally, I don't want to see rebuilding when we already have such talented players in place. Furthermore, I don't trust the Phillies' brain trust to manage such a rebuilding.

[Sophist]

Bed - that's how I read it. Especially with the comment about how he's earning his contract so far. Seemed to be a not-so-veiled reference to the arguments here that he wasn't worth it.

In any case, Mr Mack, not every time that I reply in an argumentative fashion am I looking for a fight. I'm merely engaging your comment, which I don't think is a stretch to interpret as I did. You've made similar comments about Bourn before, and I believe Rowand as well.

-----------

Since the 20th the Marlins have played the DBacks, the Giants (who have good pitching), and the Mets (ditto). All three good pitching teams. They faced Owings, Webb, Haren, and Santana in that time. Yeah, they beat the first three, but they didn't exactly produce all that well. They won those games by pitching well.

The Phils have played WAS, HOU, and COL, with most of their offensive damage coming at the expense of one HOU starter and COL.

I wouldn't read too much of a Marlins' slump into the last 7 days' numbers, though I'd rather be the Phils right now.

[Sophist]

Pitching Ranks

(Staff ERA)

ARI - 3
NYN - 7
SFG - 10

WAS - 11
HOU - 12
COL - 15

(OPS Against)

ARI - 1
NYN - 6
SFG - 10

WAS - 11
HOU - 16
COL - 14

(WHIP)

ARI - 1
NYN - 6
SFG - 14

WAS - 13
HOU - 11
COL - 15

[Dave X]

Strike zone knowledge can improve, but if he has a hard time against minor league pitching, it'll be even worse against major league pitching. He's only 22 though, he should be given at least this year and next year to work out on becoming a better player. As someone mentioned earlier, his BABIP is really high (.424) and no one, not even Ichiro, has levels that high. Once that starts to come down to earth, his stats will start to go down to his career levels. He definately is not a replacement for Burrell.

[clout]

Dave X: Strike zone knowledge can indeed improve, Rollins being a prime example. But Rollins never started remotely as deep in the hole in this area as Golson. And while it can improve, strike zone knowledge is one of the more difficult skills to master. Let's see how he does this year, his second in AA, and then see what he does next year in AAA. Nothing is impossible, but if I had to bet, at the moment I'd say the odds are against him. I may feel differently by season's end.

[Mr. Mack]

How can the Marlins, with a paltry payroll, have a first place club coming around the first turn? Good scouting and keen talent evaluator's, that's how. We all thought that Joe Girardi was a genius (okay, at least I did!) when he guided this club a couple of years ago. Why not steal (pay them more money) their GM (Michael Hill), their Head of Baseball Operations (Larry Beinfest) and their Head of Scouting (Orin Freeman)? Who the hell are these guys? I don't know, but they always seem to have a good young club with some quality players, something that the Phillies currently lack. The Phightin's lack of attention to their minor league situation has truly put them in a tough situation when needing to replace anyone at the big league level.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

If we traded away Utley, Rollins, Howard and Hamels we'd have some great young prospects too. That's basically what they did after 2003 and then last winter...

[AWH]

RSB, I guess I should have stated "he has no shot to replace Burrell's production during the years this current team's 'window of opportunity' will be open".

You are correct, EVER is probably too broad a statement, but if I were a betting man and I had to place a wager today, I would place my money on "no shot ever".

BTW, what's with the asterisks? You're the only person I've ever seen use them. Are they gramatically correct?

[AWH]

"Phillies' brain trust"

Morty, nice oxymoron!

[Morty]

AWH:

Indeed.

[Tray]

RSB's asterisks are the functional equivalent of italicization. They used to bother me, but they're a lot less annoying than Davthom's double hyphens in the middle of every sentence.