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Friday, May 23, 2008

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I'm with him on the 25-30 HRs but I don't see Feliz getting 100 RBIs. He just doesn't get enough clutch hits for that.

I think the funny thing is that Charlie doesn't think Feliz is "aggressive" enough at the plate...he's got the lowest #P/PA in the league.

I'm glad Feliz is swinging a little better, but he's not driving in 100 runs. C'mon.

Reposting this from the end of the previous thread.

MG - regarding Randolph, I don't know if any of us are qualified to say definitively that race has nothing to do with his criticism. I think the scrutiny does have more to do with the fact that his team collapsed on him, but there also certainly is an element of increased skepticism because of his race - no question. Unless you truly believe no one pays attention to that sort of thing anymore. And why are you sarcastically calling him 'Brains'? You can question his effectiveness as a leader, but I don't understand why it would seem appropriate to question the man's intelligence. He would appear to be a good deal smarter than Bobby Cox, for one.

I'll go out on a limb and predict 24 HRs/75-80 RBIs for Feliz...along with a .305 OBP.

Buster Olney on Johan Santana:

His ratio of strikeouts per nine innings over the last six seasons has been 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, 9.66. This year: 7.79.


His strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last six seasons: 2.80, 3.60, 4.91, 5.29, 5.21, 4.52. This year: 3.87.


Opponents' OPS over the last six seasons: .607, .642, .564, .594, .616, .678. This year: .723.

******************

Apparently some scouts aren't sure he's nearly as good as he was.

"The Mets were asking around about that in spring training, about what his true [velocity] baseline was," said one talent evaluator. "They were concerned."

Said an AL scout who has seen Santana this month: "His stuff isn't even close to what it was [with the Twins]."

"clout is correct" - Andy | Friday, May 23, 2008 at 01:30 PM

Posted by: clout | Friday, May 23, 2008 at 01:35 PM

There's a first time for everything.

I said it at the time and I'll say it again. The Santana isn't nearly as lopsided as it appeared to be. He's not the same pitcher who dominated the AL for years. He's still really good but he's not lights out anymore. Between the prospects they gave up and the huge salary they gave him, I think the Mets didn't nearly come out on top as everyone was saying.

CJ: ahahaahahahahahahaha... could'nt happen to a better team.

NE: Your prediction seems reasonable, but I'm not counting out the high side now that Feliz is under the tutelage of that well known hitting Svegali, ol' Uncle Chuck. He's a a little bit dumb like a fox, he is.

You know I'd be completely happy with 24 HRs/75-80 RBIs out of Feliz along with great defense. If the rest of the offense is clicking, that's great production out of your #7 hitter.

At this point, there's only one statistical category in which Feliz is on a pace to set a career high. He's on a pace to hit into 25 - 27 DPs.

If Pedro Feliz can do 25 HR and 80 RBI (he's on pace for 23/67) and can manage to get is OBP up to about .300 (he's at .295 right now)... that would be acceptable considering his glove is a lot more consistent than what we've had.

However, he's still terrible against righties (.632 OPS). He's crushing lefties (relatively speaking with a .909 OPS). His splits SCREAM platoon.

For now, we can ride out Feliz's "hot" streak (we'll see how long it lasts). But we should absoltutely be sitting him at least twice a week against tough righties, especially when those starts come with Myers or Eaton on the mound.

Well.... I'd be very happy with 24 and 75-80 if he could crack .300 in OBP. Hard to be happy with someone who makes an out over 70% of the time. And I am kind of worried about Charlie saying that he's too defensive, but I'll assume he's not actively coaching players to take fewer pitches; if he were, we probably wouldn't walk as much.

Well.... I'd be very happy with 24 and 75-80 if he could crack .300 in OBP. Hard to be happy with someone who makes an out over 70% of the time. And I am kind of worried about Charlie saying that he's too defensive, but I'll assume he's not actively coaching players to take fewer pitches; if he were, we probably wouldn't walk as much.

clout - since you were correct about the Zimmerman trade it reminded me about something else: Marcus Giles does not seem to be having the same kind of year that Kaz Matsui is.

Tray: If I was guessing, I'd say ol' Uncle Chuck's telling him to swing like he means it.

CJ: That's what the pro Feliz argument has been saying: this guy can get you 25/ 80 and provide a very solid glove. I know those are just numbers, and not a very deep picture, but they still count nonetheless. I'd be disappointed by 23/67.

"I think the funny thing is that Charlie doesn't think Feliz is "aggressive" enough at the plate...he's got the lowest #P/PA in the league."

Agreed, but there might be some truth to what Charlie is saying. Based on data from b-r.com (and obviously, there's a small sample size impact here), Feliz is at a career high for called strikes.

Morty: Yeah, I get the pro-Feliz argument. I just think the hope that he can someone get to 80 RBI or approach .300 when this season ends is a pipe dream.

The only way he gets his OBP up is to sit him more against righties.

You left out the best part...

"Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Santana has allowed 44 home runs -- most in the majors."

****he can someone get to 80 RBI or approach .300 when this season ends is a pipe dream****

Well he averaged 83.75 RBIs his last 4 seasons with the Giants and he's currently sitting at a .295 OBP so I don't think a .300 OBP is a "pipedream" at this point.

Perhaps Charlie isn't talking about agressiveness as far as pitch selection, but more of a mechanical agressiveness in the actual swing?

We all know he's not the most articulate guy in the world, often times his statements need to be decoded. Maybe we can higher Billy Wagner to be our translator once his teamates run him out of town.

I think "from the district" has it right on interpreting Cholly's meaning of "aggressiveness" for Feliz's hitting. That is at least the second time -- first a couple of weeks ago by someone in the Inky or DN on Phily.com -- he has been quoted as saying PF has to be more "aggressive" at the plate. I puzzled over it the first time; and now seeing it again, it has to mean something about the mechanics of his swing.

My favorite Pedro Feliz stat is still the one that Andy uncovered, which said that, during the first 3 weeks or so of spring training, Feliz had only taken like 2 or 3 pitches. Unfortunately, that stat turned out to be some kind of record keeping error which wasn't really true. But, even if it wasn't true in a literal sense, I still like to think it was true in kind of a metaphorical sense. Therefore, it remains my favorite Pedro Feliz statistic.

I agree with the "mechanical" interpretation of Chollie's remarks. I'm getting the impression, from actually seeing his approach, that Feliz does not handle high stress situations as well as others. His swing loses its authority and he ends up not hitting the ball as hard as he might otherwise - hence pop-ups and weak grounders. Just an impression there.

The stat which is interesting for him (beyond the 25 GIDPs he's trying for) is the 15 Ks. Incredibly, abnormally low.
(Heck, Chase Utley oughta get that many tonight alone. (Trade the worthless bum!))

And hey, if Feliz can approach his Fresno numbers from his last year in the minors he could be a certified killah.

Every ounce of my feeble intellect tells me it's not gonna happen, though. Especially when he's seeing 3.1 P/PA.

BedBeard: I asked the question because you posted this:
"Pat's bat would fit right in as DH in Tampa next year..."

So who replaces him here? Do you think guys with .900+ OPS are easy to come by?

BTW, BAP is right and NEPhan is wrong: Burrell will get $14M or higher. He may not get the years he wants though.

Why does Cholly even make foolish statements like "I think Feliz has a chance to hit 30 HRs and drive in 100 RBIs?"

Feliz has never come close to hit 30 HRs (22 career high) and his career HR/AB are pretty pedestrian. It is not like Feliz hit 20 or 22 HRs with 400 ABs. It more like 550-600 ABs which is really pretty moderate power at best.

I don't hate Feliz but he is a poor hitter. No patience, doesn't make contact reliably, doesn't have good bat control, and tries to pull every pitch he swings at.

That said, Feliz has value to this team but he shouldn't be starting every game. Said the first week of the season, say it again: Dobbs should start 1-2 times a week at 3B and Feliz should be out the rest particularly against LHP.

A lot of what Cholly says is meant to motivate players. Feliz is probably a guy who has a better attitude when praised. There is no rational reason, and no rational person would think it, to believe that Feliz can drive in 100 runs batting behind Burrell and Howard.

Morty: Check out Feliz's HRs per AB. 20 HRs is a nice number until you realize it takes 550 ABs to get there and the guy makes outs in 72% of all ABs along the way. But whatever floats your boat.

Of course if the Phils get enough hits and walks (and runs, of course) (I figure a team OBP of about .440 would do) to guarantee Feliz the number of ABs he needs to get to 30 HRs, I would take that too.

RSB - The NY media is brutal to every manager that isn't winning (particularly when expectations are high this season and after coming off a season where they had an epic collapse).

Randolph was trying to hide behind the race card. Doesn't hold water largely though (especially with Minaya's support) and it is why he did an about face so quickly.

I call Randolph "Brains not because of his intelligence but because of his repeated questionable game strategy. Why I call Manuel "Cholly" all the time too. I feel that both managers leave a large amount to be desired with the way they manage certain aspects of their in-game strategy. No reflection on their overall intelligence.

My statement is exactly what it is, you're reading into it. I didn't say he doesn't fit in here, just that I could see Tampa going after him in the offseason. Posters above my comments talked about who would go after him and/or who could afford him. That's it.

I don't see the Phils offering him much of an extension, as some writers have already state (randy miller). But, I'd love to see him extended for a year at 14 mil, if he'd do it.

NEP: Pedro Feliz has broken .300 in OBP just once in his entire career... back in 2004 when he had an OBP of .305. Even that number is terrible, but it's the best he's done. To suggest that suddenly, in his 9th season in the league, that he'll hit a magic number he's hit just once is a pipe dream.

Prior to this completely uncharacteristic three game stretch (7 hits and a walk in 14 PAs), Feliz's OBP was .270. I have a feeling Feliz will be closer to .290 than he will be to .300 when this year is done. UNLESS, as I suggested, Feliz starts playing a lot less against righties.

One thing that perplexes me:

- Cholly's seeming love to get Bruntlett into the game. I know he has value as a guy who can play multiple positions (average at best it seems) but beyond that I don't what Bruntlett brings.

Afraid with Werth going down (or as the Phils say "day-to-day" for the next 2-3 weeks) and Burrell starting to slump a bit, you are going to be a lot more of Bruntlett.

When all is sad and done, Burrell with end the season with numbers around where he has the past two years. He might talk about saying in Philly but he will with the team that gives him the longest contract in terms of years (and that means dollars too).

Why I kind of took Rowand with a degree of salt when he said he wanted to play for a "winner" and then signed with a team (Giants) that has no realistic shot of winning the NL West for at least 3 years.

****NEP: Pedro Feliz has broken .300 in OBP just once in his entire career... back in 2004 when he had an OBP of .305.****

I'm basing my best case scenario on the fact that he's coming from a pitchers park to a hitters park...

BedBeard: I agree with you 100%.

The zen master is up to his tricks trying to trick Feliz into believing he is Ryan Howard. He probably is also trying to hypnotize him during team meetings as well.

On the Burrell contract issue, the other thing I have noticed is that people are talking about him like he's 38 years old and nearing the end of the line. He'll only be 32 when next season starts. He could easily have 5 or 6 more very good statistical seasons. Compared to the other top FA outfielders on the market (Abreu, Ramirez, Griffey, Ibanez), Burrell looks like a spring chicken. That will only make him that much more attractive.

MG: Rowand is a good model. He's a supposed "character" guy who said he had a great time playing in Philly and playing for a winner. When push came to shove, he wanted the big deal more than playing for the right team at the right time.

Not every athlete makes that decision, but the vast majority do.

Last misc. point:

Now that Werth is "day-to-day" (Phils speak for out 2-3 weeks), Taguchi should see his playing time really increase and might even get the occasional start again and largely being buried the past 3 weeks on the bench.

My bet is that unless Taguchi starts showing something as a PH or playing more reliable defense consistently over the next 3 weeks, he will be released by the mid-to-end of June.

MG - One can only hope.

NEP: In his first 45 games, about half of which were played at home (a hitter's park), he had an OBP of .270. He's finished a game with an OBP over .300 just three times this year.

We know what we have in Pedro Feliz. A guy who's going to deliver an OBP over .300 is NOT part of the deal. Unless, again, he starts sitting against righties a lot more often.

BAP - Burrell certainly could have another 4-5 decent statistical years as a hitter but it will be in the AL though. I will be stunned if any NL team offers him a 3 yr deal at big dollars.

You compare him to Carlos Lee when I think a more apt comparison might be to Aubrey Huff. Huff was coming off some pretty decent offensive season when he signed with the O's in 2007 (3 yr/$20 M) and had a couple of teams interested.

Problem was the most of the NL teams weren't crazy about Huff because he is a defensive liability everywhere and his numbers weren't spectular as a 1B. See the same issues with Burrell although he is a better offensive player.

You can move Burrell to 1B maybe but he really is a poor defensive LF. With gradual shift you are starting to see from some teams emphasizing defense and small ball, I just don't see how you give Burrell a long-term deal with figuring that he will primarily be a DL for most of the contract.

Burrell as a right-handed DH hitting out of the NO. 5 or 6 hole on a AL team is where his future lies.

I hope the Phils make a run at him because they need his bat in the lineup but it will be really hard to justify signing him for large dollars over a guy like Lidge.

Biggest problem with Gillick's tenure in the near future is that he has left potential messes to the tune of over $20M next year (Jenkins, Feliz, Eaton) that will really limit what the next GM of this team does this offseason.

Almost inevitably means that Burrell or Lidge (maybe even both) might be gone next year and you still have to deal with a number of other important issues too. The Phils' GM spot is not going to be an easy one to take and savvy baseball people recognize this. Will just make it that much more difficult to bring in a really decent candidate.

Biggest problem with Gillick's tenure in the near future is that he has left potential messes to the tune of over $20M next year (Jenkins, Feliz, Eaton) that will really limit what the next GM of this team does this offseason.

Almost inevitably means that Burrell or Lidge (maybe even both) might be gone next year and you still have to deal with a number of other important issues too. The Phils' GM spot is not going to be an easy one to take and savvy baseball people recognize this. Will just make it that much more difficult to bring in a really decent candidate.

But Huff had two really mediocre years before he signed the contract. Burrell's 2007 was good and his 2008 looks to be even better.

Feliz is still a better option then Helms. And that's why he's here. Agreed? That said, Dobbs should get more AB's too.

About Burrell: I don't feel the Phils will offer him anywhere near 14 mil a year
(though they absolutely should). They are committing a big blunder here. His production will be almost impossible to replace and they certainly can't replace it for less money.

MG: Although he's a fellow Hurricane, Huff isn't a good comparison to Burrell. His OPS+ from past 3 seasons is 98, 108, 103 and he's at 97 this season. Also, he's a worse fielder.

Burrell's OPS+ past 3 seasons is 128, 122, 127 and he's at 150 this season. That's a sizeable gap.

DPatrone: That's a false comparison. If Feliz were simply replacing Helms, we'd be seeing Dobbs get more at bats against right-handed starters (which is what we should be seeing!!!). Instead, we get to enjoy watching Feliz hack away to the tune of a .238/.279/.352 in 111 PAs. He's gotten just 62 ABs vs. lefties where he's got a line of .276/.323/.586.

Dobbs, in 63 PAs against righties, has a line of .339/.375/.492.

The job Gillick did with the bullpen and bench coming into this season is head and shoulders beyond what it was in his previous two seasons. He has gradually, but markedly, improved the fringes of the roster during his tenure, and it's turning out to make a huge difference. Realistically speaking - other than some of the notable mistakes he's made on the FA market - it's the one thing he can be appropriately judged on, since he inherited an organization with such little depth that it's severely limited his ability to make impact trades. The bullpen and bench were the areas in which he maintained an ability to maneuver, and he's finally gotten it right.

DPatrone: If that was the only option, agreed. But it wasn't. In fact, Helms has never been the everyday thirdbaseman. The Feliz apologists keep beating that false straw man. It's pretty clear that Dobbs should be starting against all RHP and Feliz vs. lefties.

CJ~

I said Dobbs should be getting more AB's. But, if I recall Feliz was brought in to be the starter (for his defensive ability more than anything)) and last year's starter basically was Helms. That's taking absolutely nothing away from Dobbs. If I were Uncle Cholly, I'd find a way to get him more. Problem is, he is their best PH off the bench no question and we all know how Cholly thinks (or doesn't for that matter).

It's pretty clear that Dobbs should be starting against all RHP and Feliz vs. lefties.

I agree, except Feliz should also always start when Kendrick and Moyer start, or when, as on last night, he has great career numbers against somebody.

Since this is a blog, and we're apparently into conspiracy theories, I found the piece on Feliz today - written by an MLB writer I don't recognize - to be a little odd, considering this Zimmerman rumor I keep hearing about. Don't know if I buy the Zimmerman report, but I also don't buy the authenticity of this report. It's not like Feliz is setting the world on fire. He's got a few hits lately. Back on the back worthy, but not feature worthy.

The only way I could see Burrell getting 14mil/year is on a 2 year contract, or to an AL team for 3 years, but that's only if he finishes up this year with his OPS closer to .950 than .900.
I've said before, he's tailor made for CBP, so it makes sense for us to offer him more than any other NL team.

Huff was coming off 2 average to slightly above average years before he signed and probably isn't the most apt comparison to Burrell.

I could see Burrell getting a 3 yr/$33-$36 M deal but I would be really shocked if it was an NL team. Something like 4 yr/$40-45 M for an AL team sounds about right.

Huff was coming off 2 average to slightly above average years before he signed and probably isn't the most apt comparison to Burrell.

I could see Burrell getting a 3 yr/$33-$36 M deal but I would be really shocked if it was an NL team. Something like 4 yr/$40-45 M for an AL team sounds about right.

RSB - Gillick has made some savvy moves to improve the bench but the bullpen has been more dumb luck than anything.

Seanez was signed last minute (because Gillick refused to acknowledge the back end of this bullpen was very marginal), Romero was a lucky pickup, and Gordon has been shockingly healthy & pitching like it was 3-4 years ago when he was on the Yanks.

One bullpen move you have to give Gillick credit for is the Lidge trade which was really his call and has turned up aces so far.

The important thing is that on the larger moves (Eaton signing, Garcia trade) Gillick has largely missed and it has prevented this team from really becoming a clear cut favorite.

Clout~

Not disagreeing at all. But that's Cholly's decision. Right, wrong, or indifferent.

The bigger questions are what to do about Myers, getting Lidge and Burrell re-signed and maybe getiing someone to replace Werth is he's going to be out a while.

RSB: I agree with your assessment of Gillick, but it omits one huge area: Trades. While it is true that the lack of depth limited the number of trades he could've made, he still must be judged on the trades he DID make.

We've put together our take (admittedly from a Marlins-biased perspective) on each team's odds of taking the NL East. You can read our explanations here:

http://thesouthfloridafan.blogspot.com/2008/05/nl-east-inside-look.html

Here were the final probabilities:

Marlins: 25%
Braves: 30%
Phillies: 25%
Mets: 18%
Nationals: 2%

We'd love to get your thoughts.

Tray: I agree with you on the numbers thing, like last night, and with Moyer who gives up lots of hits. Disagree on KK, however, unless you can show me he allows more balls hit to 3B than anyone else on the staff.

Seanez and Romero could be luck or it could PG thinking he wasn't going to go and sign a FA who costs decent money and could end up crapping the bed, when there's always a vet out there who's cut/released/otherwise on the market. It's more common to happen that way in football, where it makes more sense, but there's something to be said for just being patient.

And who cares if Romero is luck, he's worked out splendidly so far. So that move goes in the "good move" column. Credit where it's due.

RSB:

Agreed about Gillick really hitting the smaller moves over the past 1 and 1/2 years. Both the bullpen and bench have been strengths since the 2nd half of last season. The Lidge move has really worked out, with the obvious Myers exception. Dobbs, Werth, Romero and Durbin have been very valuable, and Jenkins may yet show himself.

Clout: you gotta be kidding me. Why not show me his stats weighted for park factor, and then bring it back. I like Dobbs' bat a lot, but not at 3rd base more than twice a week. And you've consistency ducked your off season advocacy in favor of the status quo Helms/ Dobbs platoon.

clout: To be fair, when Huff was a FA, he was coming off seasons with OPS+'s of 135, 145, 124, 98, 108.

Burrell's last five have been 90, 107, 128, 122, 127. We'll see how this year ends up.

BB: I agree. Some criticize Gillick for his value village philosophy, noting how few actually work out and calling the ones that do luck. But that's the whole point. Even if only 10% have worked out, it's still better to spend the money to discard Shane Youmans, TJ Bohns, and Travis Blackleys after short tryouts when it comes along with dirt cheap and very strong contributions from Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth, Chad Durbin and JC Romero(temporarily). When you have no depth in the minor leagues you have to adjust your GM strategy accordingly. It sure beats dumping 10 mil on Eric Gagne or Octavio Dotel.

Morty: Why wouldn't Dobbs play more than twice a week if we get a healthy dose of right-handed pitchers? Which part of Feliz's split vs. righties do you like?

Morty: Find one single post where I said the Phillies should keep a Helms/Dobbs platoon. You can't. Your argument is so weak you have to make stuff up. I wanted an upgrade at 3B and listed a bunch of players I thought could be had. I also said Feliz was the WORST available option. This was before they signed him.

As for park factor, while HR per AB doesn't reflect that, there is a stat that does, and conveniently, it is the single best offensive stat. It is OPS+. And Feliz's OPS+ last season was the WORST in the NL last year for everyday thirdbasemen.

The Zimmermann rumor makes absolutely no sense. None. Whatsoever. Did I say zero?

Why would Washington even think about trading him? What else does that team have going for it, to lure people into a new stadium?

Why would they trade a young star to a divisional rival, especially one that couldn't offer an equivalent return if you gave them five years to do it?

Jeez. Think about it.

clout: Calm down. I don't have the time or inclination to do through 100's deep comment pages looking for your posts. I told you several times that it was my recollection that you preferred the status quo of Helms/ Dobbs to acquiring Feliz, that you thought a Helms/ Dobbs platoon would out perform Feliz. I asked you multiple times to clarify that, and this is the first time you've done so. That said, I'll take you on your word thats you didn't. Just relax a bit, will ya. This is spoused to be fun.

As someone in DC, Zimmerman's not even bringing anyone to the park, but you're right RSB, trading him will make them even worse, unless somehow, they got an overwhelming offer, which the phillies should only make for a pitcher.

SFF;

I know you love your team but you can't seriously think that the marlins have the same odds to win the East that the Phillies do. Everything would have to fall exactly right for the Marlins for them to win it. Seasons like 1997 don't happen that often.

One thing though.... Dan Uggla is clearly a better second baseman than Chase Utley. Utley couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag! They'd send him down to Scranton but the Iron Pigs have been playing better lately and the Phils don't want to mess that up. DROP UTLEY!


(c'mon Chase! 3 hrs tonite!)

Florida fan: Here is what would make me take the Marlins seriously: If they get Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson back before the end of the season and they pitch like they did before surgery. If that happens, the Marlins would have the best pitching in the East, which could offset a weak offense. Without that, you don't have the offense to contend all season.

For the record:

I'm the one who said a strict right/left platoon of Helms/Dobbs would be better for this team than Pedro Feliz. The only caveat however was that it would be tough to have two platoons if the Phils were committed to Jenkins/Werth in RF.

I still believe that a strict platoon of Helms/Dobbs would be offensively superior to Pedro Feliz and that the the difference would NOT be offset by what Feliz brings to the team with his glove.

Feel free to disagree. What's not in dispute is that Pedro Feliz is a bad hitter.

With the exception of the last post, it's nice to see a little objectivity here regarding Feliz. No, he isnt Mike Schmidt, and maybe he isn't the best the Phils could have acquired, but he is hitting well and we can only hope that he can continue the improvement. I know this is painful, but if your gonna bag on him for not performing, then give him a little credit when he does. (What's not in dispute is that Pedro Feliz is a bad hitter..great way to begin and end a discussion!)

OK, commence complaining!

MG-
"Will just make it that much more difficult to bring in a really decent candidate."

Seriously, if any body other than Amaro is the next Phils GM, I will be absolutely shocked. Oh they might put on the dog and pony show like they did before they hired Uncle Chollie, but I can't see it going any other way.

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