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Thursday, April 24, 2008

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Do people here really think that a 4.79 era and a 90 ERA+ is "capable".

Also do you really think he has always been this bad? His career ERA+ is 105, last year was the first in a while that he started pitching below average. This year his numbers are even worse.

Is this our new definition of capable and reliable? A mediocre pitcher that is only getting worse?

PhillR: Yes. In this day and age, he's fine. For this team, he's fine.

But I think he'll struggle today. Maybe 5 2-3, 3-4 runs.

Mediocre is the new good.

Reliable also means someone who's going to pitch every fifth game, with some idea what to expect. Moyer was the only pitcher to take ever turn in the rotation last season.

Why is Coste not getting a start today (if the lineup from the previous thread is accurate)?

I think Coste has a book signing at the Milwaukee Mall this afternoon.

I have no idea why he is not starting today. And, why is Bruntlett hitting 7th?

Going back to last night's loss, both Bruntlett and Werth struck out on pitches that were well out of the strike zone. To have so much patience for the majority of the at-bats, and then make outs (without putting the ball in play) is pretty bad. I expect it from Bruntlett, but not Werth. Feliz is a whole 'nother story, as the only pitch he smokes is a high fastball, and he proceeds to watch one go by without offering. Poor at-bats that need to be addressed and corrected by Milt and Charlie.

Phils denying report from rotoworld.com re: Rollins injury, according to ESPN 950 AM. "Completely false," they say.

Moyer is durable but, even if he were truly our 5th starter, his present numbers would be barely acceptable. I acknowledge that he's better than any present alternatives, but I don't really accept that the Phillies created a situation where a 46-year old, 5-inning pitcher, with a .326 opponents batting average is our only alternative. And, remember, in recent years, Moyer has been a great April pitcher, but has tailed off considerably later in the season. That 4.79 ERA and 1.69 WHIP probably represent the best we're going to see of him this year. He is basically a shot pitcher, who should only have been signed to a one-year contract -- if that.

jason - agreed . . . "capable, reliable and steady" are pretty mild adjectives.

Your description fits the stats, and the fact that Moyer hasn't made less than 32 starts since 2000.

as a third starter a 90 era+ is not going to cut it, but a 90 era+ is, by definition, most definately acceptable for a fifth starter, if you are aiming for league average rotation. Which I think the Phillies would be thrilled with.

there's nothing wrong with getting a 90 ERA+ from your fifth starter, or even your fourth starter. of course you'd like better, but you have to have reasonable expectations. I mean, it's not like you expect your #8 hitter to go .300/.350/.500.

Well, I'll say no more on Moyer because, if I do, I'll be putting myself in the position of actually hoping that he makes me look stupid today.

bap - Moyer has gotten hit pretty hard so far but the defense behind him has been pretty awful too. Basically had 2 decent starts, 1 mixed start, and 1 awful start. If Moyer can give the Phils more decent starts than awful starts and average near 6 innings out, then he is ok as a back-end rotation starter. Frankly much more concerned about Kendrick.

I think you guys are confusing league-average ERA with league-average starter ERA. league-average ERA in 2008 is 4.13; league-average ERA for a starter is 4.17. in 2007, league-average ERA was 4.43; league-average starter ERA was 4.64.

** off topic **
RE: Rollins injury rumor -- There are quite a few people on this blog who were ready to believe this story, because of their lack of faith of in the Phillies management regarding injuries. I won't argue that this situation was handled correctly. And certainly given how the situation was handled, even I almost believed the story.

However, I wanted to bring up how today's new media world can spread rumors so quickly without having REAL reporting. Jason is a little more than a guy with a blog. Jason will get out there and get his feet dirty with actual reporting and interviews and has access to sources of his own.

The report from "rotoworld.com" a fairly credible resource for fantasy, took a report from a Sports Blog offshoot from a music magazine that sited an "unnamed source". A whisper down the lane situation that made it to 610. It's amazing. Rotoworld is considered credible. But they took a report from a source that wasn't quite credible. Now their credibility takes a hit.

1. This was a magazine I had never heard of. Not that I know every magazine out there, but I figured I might have seen this in a club or a bar at some point.
2. The story was posted on a blog called "Off the Record" with Micah Warren, but didn't carry this guy's by-line. On two examples of the blog (one from blast magazine and one from OTR) had two different bylines. One was marked just "Perry" the other "Mike Perry". Comments from Micah Warren when folks were calling this story out, passed the buck on to the guy with the byline as the "Blog Owner" washed his hands of the story.

Terrible reporting job (by a blog or not a blog) whatever it is. I blog, but I'm not a blogger reporter. I'm a blogger commentator (and occasional joke teller). There's different responsibilities there.

I consider Jason a blogger reporter, more and more. If Jason had other writers providing stories or content with unverified sources, no matter what the byline would be, at the end of the day, it would be Jason that took the hit.

I think we're pretty lucky to have Jason around for that very reason.

It's not surprising that most/if not all of the Phillies bloggers all come here to beerleaguer to interact because of that trust.

Keep up the good work Jason.

*** end off topic ***

I agree, Mike - Well-stated.

Agreed, Mike. If the story is indeed false, I'd like to see some explanation from this blast magazine.

It's interesting that, in some markets, every home game isn't televised. FSN-Wisconsin isn't covering this game, which means the MLB feed is the Harry-Sarge-Wheels-TM special even though it's an away game.

Also point me in the "not-sold" on Eaton camp either yet. Kind of like driving 65 MPH on a bald tire that you have patched a couple of times. Just hope that it doesn't blow out.

Wait, so that was Dobbs that grounded into the double play? I could've sworn it was Feliz...

Also, I just wanna point out what I pointed out last night: The Brewers hit lefties better than any other team in the league. Hamels pitched well last night and still gave up 5 runs to them. Moyer is no Hamels...

To the people watching on TV :

Were those all actually balls to Weeks. On gameday some of them look like strikes.

The 3rd pitch looked like a strike...the rest looked like balls.

MG: I would argue that Moyer has been considerably WORSE than his 2008 numbers indicate. In that first game, he allowed 5 hits, 1 walk & 5 runs in the first inning, but it only showed up as 3 runs on his ERA because Utley threw a ball away on a play where the runner likely would have been safe anyhow. In his second game, his final numbers looked good, but he was literally hammered all game long &, if it weren't for about 4 great defensive plays by Victorino, he would have allowed about 6 or 7 runs. And in his third game, he got battered and was removed from the game before retiring a batter in the 5th, or else he would have done more damage. His last outing was really his only good one.

Cue clout and CJ

BAP - I agree. Hopefully his last outing is more indicative of what we'll see in the first part of the season. This is a tough lineup he's facing today, though.

Any one have a count on how many times Feliz has made an out on a soft groundball to the middle infield? I feel like he does it 2/3 at-bats.

Wonder how much longer Manuel will continue to have two stiffs batting behind Burrell?

The nice thing about this lineup is you can watch the first 4 batters then go back to work for a 1/2 hour.

red: What should Cholly do? Move up the 2 powerhouses who are batting in our 7th & 8th spots?

BAP - He could bat Utley second and drop Dobbs down to 5.

No easy innings today

Wait. I guess that would be "drop Dobbs down to 4". Nevermind.

Cheers, Mike Cunningham. Thanks.

Well, that's 3 double plays already. Pretty solid way not to score any runs...

Speaking of Moyer, although kdon denies such a thing exists or if it does it's just dumb luck, but Moyer is one of those pitchers who nearly always comes up big in an important spot.

Coste should have been starting today but I can't blame Cholly for this lineup. Not his fault that he has to start guys like Bruntlett or that guys just aren't hitting.

With the lack of offense at the bottom of this lineup and as a day game after a night game, not giving Coste the start is inexplicable. Unless he has some sort of injury we don't know about...commence with the conspiracy theories.

One day this huge black hole will have disappeared. With Werth in right, Vic in center, Dobbs at 3rd, Jimmy back, & more time for Coste we have a lineup that will put up lots of crooked numbers.

I sort of understand sitting the slumping Howard in a day game after a night game, but Suppan is a mediocre pitcher who has all kind of problems vs. lefties. Wouldn't it make sense to keep Howard in there and keep Feliz on the bench until the 7th, where he belongs vs. RHP? Rest Howard the next time they face a lefty.

Clout: Agreed. If he stank today, you sit him in Pittsburgh, not here.

Unless Moyer doesn't like to throw to Coste, I agree with Jeltzie that it makes no sense to start Ruiz in a day after night game.

I actually have no problem with Cholly benching Howard for two days. If he isn't injured, then it really is a mechanics/mental thing. Giving him a few days to clear his head isn't the worst idea.

Three RBIs this season for Jenkins. Three. Weakly tapped, pulling off the ball.

Forget Feliz or whatever, Geoff Jenkins is so far the worst move made of the offseason.

I wonder what MLB's return policy is. If it's anything like WMT, lets take Jenkins & Feliz back to where we found them. Arrghh.

Jenkins continues to do flail away at the plate. Looks like he is one of his funks that he has been none to get into periodically during his career.

I was about to write that the advocates of pulling Burrell for defense are having a good day today. But never mind.

Definitely should have waited til tomorrow to sit Howard. Especially since today seems like one of those days when the Phils decide not to hit.

I've muted my TV w/ McCarthy & Sarge in the booth at the same time. The Phills butcher the broadcast lineup every year. LA/Kalas chemistry not being used on TV.
I realize Howard needs to sit but against Jeff Supan(RH-pitcher?) Why not wait until the tomorrow vs the Bucs. Howard has a .375avg vs Suppan.
Burell having a tough day in left-must have hit the town last night.

Great work nailing the Brewers on the base paths so far today

I am a big Howard supporter usually but he was brutal at the plate last night. Two really bad Ks and two weak grounders hit right into the shift. If he had hit a few balls hard, then I would have started him today but one area I generally trust Cholly in is when his player needs a breather.

Somebody on this team besides Utley or Burrell needs to step up.

McCarthy is so generic. He's a more likable version of Scott Graham.

I have an XM subscription this year, and I find the radio team of Franzke/Andersen to be solid. But the TV rotation is just cockamamie.

Is it me or is McCarthy just generally annoying? Never understood all the excitement about him coming back here this offseason.

McCarthy is very good on radio, but not much different than Franzke at straight-up play-by-play.

This is a spot where Coste should be in there. Could have given the bottom of this weak lineup a boost.

The bottom half of this lineup makes one yearn for the days of David Bell and Sal Fasano.

Why is Ruiz bunting w/ 2 outs no-one on?
Did he think Moyer was going to drive him in? Very dissapointing year for ruiz so far

Ground bunt? Are you kidding me?

I like Tom McCarty. And I love Andersen and Franzke together.

No HR = no offense. Good thing this team is leading the league in HRs (largely due to Utley) because otherwise they have no bite.

At this point they should just stick with Harry and Sarge.. they are the most likable and I think would grow a better rapport given time. Alternatively, a more critical Wheels would suffice... but stop this chinese firedrill every few innings.

Basically half the lineup hitting .230 and below on a given night.

TM is criticizing the decision to bat Kendall 9th in the grounds that he's now leading off for the second time. "Imagine what he'd have done with those men on base." Tom, that's the whole point! They want him to lead off innings.

Pointed about last night but the Phils are getting below average production at every position right now besides LF and 2B (where they lead the NL by a wide margin).

If not for a few unlikely comeback wins because of the strong bench production, this team would be 3 or 4 games below .500.

Werth has done okay in CF.

Brunlett, Feliz & Jenkins & Ruix all in the same lineup? It's the Mendoza Squad.

Is this game setting up for another Phils' late rally? It has that feel.

Just okay, JW.

werth just crushed that ball

werth's mom is hot

Werth can hit a few righties. Jenkins will be seeing spot duty when Vic returns.

Yeah I'd say Werth has been ok...

Are people still complaining about home runs?

Wouldn't be surprised if Werth keeps hitting like he has that he gets a number of starts in RF in place of the slumping Werth. Cholly kind of hinted at that yesterday in his press quote and you kind of get the feeling that Cholly really likes what Werth brings to the table.

Should Werth start over Victorino most days when Vic gets back?

Time to start thinking about making Werth the everyday RF when Victorino comes back. There's no comparison between his production and Jenkins'. And this coming from someone who has long doubted Werth's ability.

I'm not watching the game at work, but I actually like the chemistry between McCarthy and Sarge. Sarge is pretty funny. I'm beginning to like the "goodnight irene" call even. He just needs to compliment it with a "come on eileen" call, sort of like Harry's priceless "straight down the middle for a ball" call. That one always slays.

Last comment made no sense. When Victorino gets back I wouldn't be surprised Jenkins if riding a lot more pine if he doesn't start to hit a bit.

Seems a few of us had the same thought at the same time...

Tray - No. Victorino still brings really solid D in CF and the Phils could desperately use his speed in the lineup. If anyone's playing time decreases, it will be Jenkins which is fine. Jenkins is a role player at this point in his career and shouldn't be starting everyday anyways.

Well, it will likely be one or two more innings before the Phils get a guy to second again.

I can't wait to see Howard brought in as a late-inning defensive replacement.

Even though they tied it, I have a bad feeling about this one.

While Suppan has been a bit better than Bush did yesterday, it is not exactly like the Phils are doing themselves any favors either.

The truth of the matter is Jenkins hasn't done much of anything since last May. Defintely nothing Dobbs couldn't do.

MPN - Goodnight Irene / Come on Eileen... that's good stuff there.

When you have a 55 year old pitcher backed by the Mendoza Squad, a victory would be a complete gift.

So with just 89 pitches, I guess Moyer goes out there for another inning?

Moyer has been "capable, reliable, steady."

This defense is much needed with Moyers on the mound. Some of it he provided himself through pick-off moves.

Nice effort by Moyer today. Now lets get some runs

Yeah, you can't argue about the job Moyer has done in this one. His best start of the year.

So would Howard be available as a pinch hitter? Or is he totally out? Not that he would do any better as a pinch hitter the way he's been striking out...

How about a 3-way, 2-position platoon with Victorino, Werth, and Jenkins. Jenkins would always be in right of course

Looks like Moyer will lead off the next inning unless Ruiz gets a hit here. Gordon is warming, but I think that's only if Ruiz pulls it off.

. . . And he doesn't

Carlos Ruiz realizes that the rule is three strikes and you are out, not three pitches and you are out, right?

8 pitch inning. Way to work the count guys.

Brewers have also really helped out Moyer by some really poor baserunning. Having four guys erased through 6 innings is not exactly ideal including 2 pickoffs.

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