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Thursday, March 20, 2008

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70 percent of the pitching is either "bad" or "ugly". Even if that figure falls to 50 pct in the reg season, this eam WON't hit enough (RF,3B) to make up for it= about 83 wins max.This doesnt acct for trades, injuries, or Benson.

Happy Clout Day everyone. LOL.

Hardball times looked today at how parks affect batted balls. It turns out in '07 CBP's true HR factor was less than Toronto, the White Sox, and Colorado. It was tied with Wrigley - but I doubt people will be calling that park a "joke" anytime soon. Its linked via my name.

Anyway, spring training counts now. Time to open a Yuengling and enjoy baseball.

(gags)

On an encouraging note, today's lineup looks like the real one, and Feliz is in at 7th in the batting order.

kdon: How are you celebrating Clout Day?

Ask and ye shall receive: Darensbourg featured today.

Am I mistaken? I thought Eaton was due to start today and Kendrick was in a minor league game. Box score has Kendrick listed as SP

Don't mind me. If I checked first I would have seen this . .

"Adam Eaton was to start, but Kendrick's scheduled appearance in a Minor League game was rained out."

I guess the Phillies have nowhere to go but up once the season starts.

"How are you celebrating Clout Day?"

I don't know, maybe posters can recount their favorite instances of clout blatantly misrepresenting their opinion in order to start arguments...

Now that's the holiday spirit!

"Darensbourg featured today."

Those features are usually the kiss of death. Rationally, I'm against carrying an extra LOOGY instead of one of Blackley/Rosario/J.D., but emotionally, I'm pulling for the guy.

Sorry, possible I;m a bit grumpy because the Owls are currently laying an egg.

Since today is officially the day that we can start counting the results . . . damn our offense has been wretched.

Kdon: What are you gagging on, the Yuengling? Not all of us are lucky enough to be in Brussels, ya know.

2 innings, 0 runs, 6 ground outs. Kendrick must know it's Clout Day & he'd better start kicking it into gear.

Alby, no, I'm enjoying the smooth flavor of Trappistes Rochefort...%9.2!

The gag was an involuntary reaction to today's thread.

BAP - I think Clout meant performances from now on in ST (not retrospectively) so on that basis Kendrick looks good so far - 6 groundball outs

BAP - great minds

I am not sure if Feliz or the RF combo scares me more.

Happy Clout Day everyone

Is it a Crappy Out Day when Feliz is 'hitting'?

So, are we still panicking over Kendrick or will we toss this result out because it's against the Pirates?

The 4 innings, 2 hits, 1 walk line is nice... but what's even better is the 10 ground outs and no fly outs.

To continue my thought...

That's how Kendrick will be successful this season. Good control and keeping the ball on the ground. He MUST do that to overcome his lack of strikeouts.

And... I jinx again... the next batter flies out to center. Of course, it was a lazy fly, so it was still a good pitch.

Hey, hey... Jenkins knocks out another one.

On clout day, we know Kendrick will be fine and Jenkins was a good signing ;-)

Okay... Jenkins HR means a lot less now that Feliz followed it up with one of his own. Must be a huge wind blowing out...

So,ST results are meaningful only after today? Thank god. I guess we can ignore the fact that the Mets are 14-7 and the Phils are 6 games behind. The good news is that the Phils already have 2 hits and are therefore half way to their anticipated offensive production for the game.

My sarcastic post was responsible for the HRs. Maybe I should save my inputs for games that count.

Rita's is giving out free wooder ice today in honor of Clout Day.

I see that both Feliz AND Kendrick have flicked the switch today.

The RF combo will be sufficient. This is arguably one of the only positions the Phils have a few options. If Werth really falls off this year, I wouldn't even be surprised to see Dobbs get the very occasional start in RF if the offense needs a jumpstart vs. LHP.

Hitman: Yes, we can in fact ignore the Mets record and the number of games we're behind. If there is something that can be almost universally ignored, it's spring training records.

What matters is how players perform... not whether they score more than the opponent. Especially considering records don't carry over into the regular season.

kdon,

I would argue that Rochefort 10 is perhaps the world's best beer. It's a shame they cost about $10-12 per bottle back in Philly. Enjoy one for me, would you? I've never actually had the Rochefort 8, though, is it as good?

As for celebrating Clout Day, why don't we all agree to post three-four curt posts in rapid succession, then not post again for one-two hours?

MG: Is that a mis-type? I'm not sure how Dobbs would jumpstart the offense against LHPs since Dobbs was awful against lefties last year and bad against lefties in his career. Jenkins' splits against lefties are better than Dobbs.

Hitman: I don't share the view that individual ST performances are only meaningful after today, but there is literally zero correlation between a TEAM's ST record and its regular season record. Yes, we can ignore the fact that the Phillies are 6 games behind the Mets, just as we can ignore the fact that the RedSox are 6 games behind the Devil Rays.

In honor of Clout Day from Jayson Stark:

"Teams that have spoken with the Phillies say they’re frantically searching for two relievers to add to their middle-innings mix. But they have so little to trade — aside from Wes Helms, who has attracted just about zero interest — they’re likely to just see what’s out there on the waiver wire or the out-of-options bargain bin. Nevertheless, they’ll almost certainly do something. One baseball man reports that when he asked a member of the Phillies’ organization this week whom the 11th and 12th pitchers figured to be, he was told: “They’re not here yet.”

CJ- Please note a strong positive correlation between player performance and team win-loss records. Regardless of whether it counts, the ST performances of the Mets and Phils are an ominous warning of things to come.

Now that the bullpen innings are here my Yuengling is going to turn into a warm Nattie.

BAP- You attribute the difference in ST records between the Phils and Mets to random variation or what? Forget about the fact that both teams gave hopeless minor leaguers their 15 minutes of fame. The Phils hitting and pitching stunk. That isn't meaningless.

I wonder who Gillick has assigned to continuously hit the "Refresh" browser on MLB.com (because the Phils aren't savvy enough to set up an RSS feed) to see if any reliever gets released?

See, we know something that Stark doesn't know:


VIC DARENSBOURG!!!

Okay. I only did that because it's clout day and because there's a feature on VD.

Besides MPN, did anyone else attend the Philly Craft Beer Festival the other week and spot Andy Musser?

Actually kdon celebrated Clout Day on the prior thread in hilarious fashion: By defending Condrey's contributions because his bad stat totals were caused by a few bad outings. Yes, the same point he derided when I and others made it about Alfonseca's contribution last season and about Joe Borowski's misleading stat totals last season and how the guy could've actually helped us.

Incidently, if the MLB.com stats are an indication, clout day arrived early for Feliz (a.k.a. Pete "Too" Happy), since he actually, accroding to those stats, saw 15 pitches in 4 PAs. For him, that's amazing. It's like, um, patience or something.

Hitman: Um... noted... but still largely irrelevant. In many cases, games are decided by players who will never see a Major League roster.

note:
clout celebrated his clout day by making his first post of the day a slam of kdon over last year's bullpen.


How refreshing.

On ST records:
I wonder if there's a correlation between the number of walks a team gets/gives up in ST and a good start in April. It would seem that teams that are taking the game seriously enough to focus on plate discipline and command might be better prepared.

I haven't taken a look at stats to see if it's there; just wondering.

Can we start an Abreu debate in honor of clout day?

I'll start, I believe that the Abreu trade was addition by subtraction. Go!

I wish RSB had lived to see clout day. Does anyone know what happened to him?

One thing that doesn't get enough talk is how the terrible drafts from 2003-2005 have really crippled this team for this upcoming season. Yeah, Ed Wade played a part by signing FAs so the Phils didn't have a 1st/2nd round pick in 2003 or a 1st round pick in 2005. Still, it looks their is only going to be one player (Kyle Kendrick) who substantially contributes this year to the Phils.

Phils' have almost no one they can count on this season from their minor league system to help them and the poor drafts results from 2003-05 are the main reason why. Gillick hasn't helped as he had raided the cupboard from these drafts by trading Bourn, Constanzo, and Maloney the past 2 years too.

Maybe the draft picks the Phils have been stocking up on since 2006 may help them down the road in 2009 and beyond but that isn't much conciliation for the 2008 season.

MG: Excellent post. This Stark item is just absolutely mind-blowing: "Teams that have spoken with the Phillies say they’re frantically searching for two relievers to add to their middle-innings mix."

Beerleaguers have been clamoring for relief help since the season ended. Nothing was done. No free agents signed. No hurt relievers brought in for a look-see. And now all of a sudden it's an emergency? This is just nuts.

I for one definitely miss RSB. He was a great contributor and observer.

Hitman: Here are the spring stats of the Mets' core everyday players. Reyes' OBP is barely over .300. Wright has knocked in 3 runs all spring. Beltran and Delgado are both hitting below .200 with 1 homerun. Moises Alou is 0 for 10. Luis Castillo is hitting .125. Pedro has pitched all of 4 innings. And the ERAS of Santana & Perez are in the high 4s.

ST record may be correlated to ST performance, but you have no idea WHOSE ST performance it is correlated to. And you surely can't believe that a veteran player whose ST stats are way out of line with his career norms is more likely to perform in line with those spring stats than with the career norms?

Andy, what an idiotic post. By looking at your boy Feliz's OBP over the last two years, you can easily tell that even if he did walk more this spring training, he would still revert to his career norms and be horrible again. Now, do you have any statistical analysis do back up your outrageous assertion?

Happy Clout Day!!!!

ZT: Better yet, let's start a debate over whether Antonio Alfonseca was a net positive or a net negative last year, & whether he out-performed Brian Sanches. kdon, I nominate you to lead off the debate.

Here's a Value Village pickup for that #5 starter role = Jon Patterson, recently released from the Nats.
Spring numbers equally as bad as Kendrick's, but Patterson has a little more experience.

"How are you celebrating Clout Day?"

I don't know, maybe posters can recount their favorite instances of clout blatantly misrepresenting their opinion in order to start arguments...

Like the 50 or so times clout has said I said Burrell's career was finished last season, when actually I spent all spring defending him to RSB. Whose posts are greatly missed, by the way. As for today's game, the way our bullpen is shaping up, Condrey might be our fourth best reliever. Maybe we should give Coste a try; as davthom used to frequently remind us, he threw a solid two innings once in the minor leagues.

Does this sudden bullpen sramble have anything to do with Lidge being farther behind schedule than they're letting on?

Patterson should be picked up immediately... if they don't the Phils have problems.

J.: What are you insinuating? The FO would never lie to us about an injury.

Royce Ring, Brandon Medders, Dustin Nippert.. Any interest in these guys being the phantom 11th and/or 12th pitcher?

Why did the Nats release Patterson?

I almost forgot!!! HAPPY CLOUT DAY!! (Sorry .. not caustic enough) ;)

jack-- all was said was that he wasn't "progressing " fast enough plus low velocity

Patterson: Wow, you cannot be serious. This is a pitcher who barely registers 33% on the ground outs to total outs ratio. This is the same pitcher with a K/BB ratio last season of 0.68. Every trendline on his stats points in the wrong direction.

The Phils already have problems. Why make more of them?

JW--- FWIW, Lidge struck out 3 of the 5 batters he faced in an intrasquad game today.. He's slated to debut Sunday

John Patterson is like an older SP version of Dallas Mcpherson. Great potential but always hurt, though Patterson has "done something" at the ML level.

I mean the Nats have no pitching and they're cutting this guy. Besides cost I can't see a reason why. I don't think he's going to sniff 2005 type numbers anytime soon.

Mike H: Whom do you suggest the Phils' pick up that's reasonably available?

Patterson is out because his velocity is way down for a veteran. Their rotation is going to be Hill, Bergmann, Chico, Lannan, and Redding. He'll probably end up with the Marlins.

JW - Nah I think the Phils just realize that every holdover or FA reliever they have brought in has shown nothing this spring and that the giant fork sticking out of Gordon's shoulder is a real problem too. Notice how those complete BS articles on Gordon's supposed health in late Feb. have melted away as spring training has progressed and the results have been dismal.

It would be interesting to see what kind of BS they try to spin if though if Lidge is really hurt. That will be two years in a row the Phils have egg on their faces.

One thing I don't understand is the seeming fanaticism by the Phils to have Lidge ready to pitch by Opening Day. I know they want to get out to a good start but is it worth risking Lidge's health for just a few extra games in April?

RSB is really missed. Could disagree with him and yet it would be civil.

Well, Patterson IS a good pitcher when he's healthy. But that's like saying that Pedro Feliz is a good hitter when he works the pitcher deep into the count.

Given the uncertainty with Benson, Patterson would be worth a minor league contract. But I think the Phillies have already spent all they plan to spend.

Patterson has tried anything sort of voodoo to deal with his injury woes and no dice. Pass here.

Patterson is a very talented pitcher whose career has been wrecked by injuries. Over the past 2 years, he's had shoulder surgery, elbow surgery and forearm surgery for a nerve impingement. The Nats aren't exactly loaded with talent. If they thought he could recover, they would've kept him. Some guys have surgery and just never make it back.

I'm not sure who is still "reasonably available." My criteria for signing any pitcher is this: 1. A groundball out to total out ratio of at least 40%. 2. A groundball out ratio lower than a flyball out ratio. 3. A K/BB ratio of at least 2.50.

My rationale is based on the obviously diminished margin for error for pitching in CBP.

BAP - "Given the uncertainty with Benson, Patterson would be worth a minor league contract. But I think the Phillies have already spent all they plan to spend."

You hit the complete nail on the head. This supposed interest by the Phils to suddenly get another reliever or two has a huge caveat - the player must either be a near minimum veteran league salary figure or even better yet a minor league deal.

The Phils will get nothing for the bullepn besides table scraps before the start of spring training just as Eaton is going to be the No. 5 starter if he isn't on the DL.


Mike H: "My criteria for signing any pitcher is this: 1. A groundball out to total out ratio of at least 40%. 2. A groundball out ratio lower than a flyball out ratio. 3. A K/BB ratio of at least 2.50."
- Looks like we would never be signing any pitchers under your regime, as these pitchers are never reasonably available. I guess you are satisfied with status quo.
I'm not.

Brad Lidge's lifetime GO/TO ratio is 39.6%. His lifetime K/BB ratio is 3.30. I don't know who "we" is, as I am not part of Phillies management, but because of those stats, I know what Lidge is capable of and was satisfied with bringing him in.

It must make you feel good about yourself to put words in my mouth, Jon. You asked the question. I am, without question or doubt, and have clearly demonstrated here for months, that I am not satisfied with the status quo. You could look it up.

Hey y'all. I truly appreciate the acknowledgement. I've missed Beerleaguer a lot. Jason's been trying to get me to come back, but I don't know.

See, I think bringing Feliz in was a good move, so I think maybe this isn't the best forum for me...

Happy Clout Day all.

Patterson has been battling arm problems for 2 years since his strong 2005. Must be same problems. Might be worth a flyer but we need someone who can actually pitch NOW.

Mike H: All's I'm saying is that if you're going to shoot down someone's comment, at least provide an alternative solution (even though in the spirit of Clout Day, not providing an alternative solution may be acceptable for today only).

Sorry, Jon. I don't have a spare hour to look up who is still marginally available or on the bubble. Like the Phillies, if I had done this in November or December, I would not be in the predicament I am in now.

:-)

RSB - Diversity encouraged. Actually I have come around a bit on the Feliz signing for this year at least (2nd year guaranteed was a bit hard to swallow) as long as his defense as good as advertised. Actually wish the Phils have spent the money on pitching instead of signing Jenkins though.

I've got the perfect 11 and 12. Their names are Jose and Antonio. Any takers?

As much as it as come in vogue to criticize Feliz, the fundamental issue is that Gillick's signings of Eaton and Gordon are what has really crippled this pitching staff. Likely to get almost nothing from two guys who are being paid as a decent back-end starter and a guy making elite setup/low-end closer money. $14M wasted.

RSB:

Stick around. It's a bit wonky around here for me as well, but once the season begins, the games start being played for real, not on a computer. Funny things happen, as you well know. I also think Feliz was a slight upgrade.

MG:
Could not agree more. Awful awful signings. Gillick was trying to save a buck and buy value, instead he bought disaster.

Best day of the spring for Phils, with the offense hitting, kendrick looking sharp, and Lidge looking great, occurs on Clout Day. Coincidence? I think not.

On Clout Day, what better gift than the gift of RSB. A monumental day in the history of Beerleaguer.

Diversity encouraged, indeed, and we shall all do a better job enabling readers with "alternative views." That's what this is about, not reinforcing dominant ideologies.

So let's raise a glass to RSB, Clout, Pedro Feliz and Bobby Abreu! Cheers!

PhilliesRed:

The Rochefort 8 is really good, my favorite so far, but I haven't tried the 10 yet. And it's only about 1.50 euro here (which may be 10-12 bucks pretty soon!)

"By defending Condrey's contributions because his bad stat totals were caused by a few bad outings. Yes, the same point he derided when I and others made it about Alfonseca's contribution last season and about Joe Borowski's misleading stat totals last season and how the guy could've actually helped us."

Your in poor form today; celebrating too much. This one is easy.

Borowski's explosions (unlike Condrey's) came in important games, blowing 3 and 4 run save opportunities. Alfonseca's totals, OTOH, were not from a few games but a long protracted period of suckitude.

FWIW, I did admit several times that given the injuries to Gordon and Geary's ineffectiveness that Borowski could have been helpful. I still think the guy is a stiff who got a bunch of cheap saves, but that still would have helped last year.

Morty - Gordon signing will have been ok if he gives the Phils even an adequate year (say 55-60 innings of 3.75-4.00 ERA) but if not this signing has been a really dud. Basically 4 decent months over 3 years will be tough to defend.

"See, I think bringing Feliz in was a good move, so I think maybe this isn't the best forum for me...

Posted by: RSB | Thursday, March 20, 2008 at 04:04 PM "

Oh no, what have I done!


...good to see you back

Happy Clout Day!

(Or as I like to think of him, Mr. Bickerson. There's also a Mrs. Bickerson and a L'il Bickerson...)

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the Nats RELEASED John Patterson:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2008/news/story?id=3303667

It seems that their one and two starters will be Odalis Perez and Tim Redding! I can't wait for opening day...

MG:

I think a lot of fans would be ecstatic with those results for Gordon. Of course that would still leaves us needing a repeat from Romero. I would also be ecstatic if Eaton could give us an ERA closer to 4.5 than 5.

Here's hoping!

Kendrick pitches well... Feliz gets a hit... RSB posts! Everyday should be Clout Day!

Not that its anything but trivial, but there is an AP report on Foxsports.com about Lidge's outing that refers to Costanzo as a former first round pick. If i'm not mistaken I thought he was a third rounder in a year the phillies had no first or second round picks, like Tim Moss in the second round the year before. Those were some great draft picks, huh...

kdon: Wrong, yet again! Go back and look at Borowski's record. He converted 45 of 53 save opps in leading the AL in saves. His ERA was bad because of 3 appearances (in which he gave up 14 earned runs). So let's review: Excellent work in 66 appearances, blowing games in 3 appearances in kdon world equals "explosions (unlike Condrey's) came in important games." Too funny!

I've posted the Alfonseca numbers so many times here and it so obviously proves you wrong that I won't embarrass you again unless you ask me nicely.

kdon: Oh and to knock down yet another silly statement from you: "I still think the guy is a stiff who got a bunch of cheap saves."

35 of his 45 saves were with 1-run or 2-run leads.

We should totally have an Impersonate Another Beerleaguer Poster Day.

I'll take bruceg.

Hey lekh - No matter that the headline from that story reads...

"Phillies closer Brad Lidge looks sharp in first action since surgery"

No real news there, I guess...

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