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Saturday, March 29, 2008

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88-74. Second Place, possibly the wild card.

88 wins, out of the playoffs.

Sorry phellow Phils fans...but I see a 3rd place finish. I see the Braves squeaking out the division with 93 wins, followed by New York (91), Us (87), Washington (74), and Florida(72). Why? Well, just a gut feeling. I see the other teams improving more than we have. Also, winning back-to-back division titles sounds too good to be true. That sort of good fortune usually is not bestowed upon us.

83-79, out of the playoffs (obviously).

88 wins, NL East champs. Moyer/Kendrick/Eaton and the bullpen do *just enough* to get by. Mets get hit too hard by the injury bug, and the Braves aren't as good as people think they are.

They lose their playoff series, however, in similar fashion to last year. Fans come out in droves, owners refuse to make changes to make the team better, and continue crap all over the fans yet again because we let them.

Another slow April puts us in a big hole early. A quality second half comes up a few wins short, as the Phils finish the season 86-76, tied with the Mets but behind the Braves.

88 wins, second place but by only a hair to the Bravos. The Mets, after having to rely a whole season on players like Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, finish third with 84 wins.

The Phils lose out in the wild card race to a team from the West.

Wow, am I the only one that has any hope??? I'm going to say 102 wins, and a WS appearance.

Though I'm not exactly stoked with the current rotation/bullpen situation, there's absolutely no WAY that our pitching can take the injury bug the way it was last year, and frankly, even though we don't look great on the mound right now, we're still better than last April. With the addition of a 3B that can actually hit and a couple more pieces, I'm thinking we can get 10-15 more wins than last year.

BTW - don't sleep on Gillick's in-season moves (i.e., Iguchi, Lohse, Romero, etc.)... The end of Spring Training doesn't necessarily mean the end of wheeling and dealing.

GO PHILS!!!!

Wow, am I the only one that has any hope??? I'm going to say 102 wins, and a WS appearance.

Though I'm not exactly stoked with the current rotation/bullpen situation, there's absolutely no WAY that our pitching can take the injury bug the way it was last year, and frankly, even though we don't look great on the mound right now, we're still better than last April. With the addition of a 3B that can actually hit and a couple more pieces, I'm thinking we can get 10-15 more wins than last year.

BTW - don't sleep on Gillick's in-season moves (i.e., Iguchi, Lohse, Romero, etc.)... The end of Spring Training doesn't necessarily mean the end of wheeling and dealing.

GO PHILS!!!!

85 wins. Not enough to get it done.

83-79. Tied with the Braves for second place, 10 games behind the Mets, and 5 games behind the Brewers for the WC.

Also put me down for another 1-6 start, caused largely by the bullpen. But, unlike years past, they won't storm back to take over the division or WC lead later in the year. They'll get themselves into a quick hole & be playing catch-up all year.

And while we're making predictions . . . Cubs over the Tigers in 7, to win the WS.

Interesting yet disappointing season. Offense isn't quite as potent as last season while the pitching is actually marginally improved (in terms of runs allowed). Basically adds up to 87 wins and a second place finish 4 games behind the Mets (who win the NL East with 91 wins).

Reason I have hope - this team is so close to being a playoff team that even a little luck or a marginal move could put them over the top. Neither the Braves or Mets are good enough to run away with the East this year with 95+ wins.

"Eaton is our fifth guy," Manuel said. "He was our fifth guy going in, and no one took it away from him."

Thus ends one of the biggest obvious shams in recent Phils' history.

86-76, just missing the wild card. I'm pretty sure that's what I said last year so I'll stick with it.

More predictions:

Kendrick gets demoted to Allentown before the season's over; J.A. Happ replaces him in the rotation & is better than anyone expects.

Gordon blows 2 games in the season's first week, & lands on the DL before May 15.

Lahey is a disaster and is released before the end of April.

Rollins posts numbers very similar to last year. Howard hits .265 with 48 homers. Burrell has a career year. Jenkins/Werth give us good production. Ruiz has a break-out season. Utley has a major off year. Feliz stinks to high hell & his defense turns out to be over-rated.

Clay Condrey is the season's biggest upside surprise & winds up being moved into the set-up role.

Moyer's ERA sails to the high 5s, and he finally retires at season's end.

South Philly: You need to seek professional help for that drug problem.

Howard will have a huge year. Last year he battled through an injury for a month, then sat out another month. He's having a great spring and hitting the ball to both fields--great sign.

Chase missed a month with a broken hand.

J-roll is J-roll.

We have an everyday 3rd basemen in Feliz, who plays great D and is an improvement over last year's trio--no question.

Ruiz has steadily improved each year and (I strongly believe) will impress this year.

Burrell is in a contract year and showed quite the resurgence after the All-Star break.

Victorino Playing centerfield is a defensive improvement over last year and getting at-bats every day can only help.

The Werth/Jenkins platoon is an improvement over last year (especially if played right).

Hamels missed a month last year. If he stays healthy, he will battle Santana for the Cy.

Myers is a huge asset in the rotation and has proved his value already in Florida.

Moyer will throw 200 innings (as he has for last 10 years) and keep us in games. I hope Kendrick can do the same, but we won't know if last year was an anomoly until we've experienced this year.

Eaton. Adam Eaton.

Madson, Romero, and Lidge will help solidify the back end.

My concerns include health (mostly pitchers), middle relief, and our #5 starter. The Mets and Braves have the same concern (if not greater)! Also, Chollie managed an injury-plagued team to the playoffs last year. If this team stays healthy, Chollie makes less decisions, Phils win more games.

93-69.

I was off by one game last year, which I attribute totally to the 9-8 game from September 5.

The offense will continue to roll. Although Rowand's production was fantastic last year, I do like Burrell to have a great season in his walk year. Ruiz is about to throw the switch based on a great spring. It's a 900-910 run offense. The pitching will continue to be below league average. That's an incredible statement given Hamels and Myers. Lidge will be slightly better than average, for the first time since 2005. The defense will be just a dash better because of Victorino and the lack of ham and eggers at third. They will give up 805-815 runs.

The schedule is not as forgiving as last year. The Mets, Braves, and yes those pesky Nats are improved, but the Marlins are atrocious. Three games against Boston will not help. It is going to be nip and tuck again with the Mets and Braves. The team with the best record against each other will most likely win the division. That will be the Mets, even with their dinky injuries that they will suffer all year long. But, with 91 wins and 71 losses, the Phils will secure a wild card berth in the last week. Odds of winning the division are 20%, winning the wild card 60%, and missing the playoffs 20%.

The Phils will win their division series handily, then face the Mets in an epic seven game war. Even if the Phils win this and make it to the W---- S-----, Boston or Detroit will completely rip through the NL winner.

Finally, although we may disagree from time to time, the Beerleaguer and Phils fan I disagree with the most is still a better person that most Mets or Braves fans.

Thank you very much, Jason, for this outstanding community of intelligent, passionate phans!

Holy crap... Burrell just hit a BOMB through a fierce, cold wind. 3-0, Phillies.

If it were summer, that homer would have landed in Ashburn Alley. Instead, it made it into the second row. He had excellent balance on that swing, though.

Moyer is so crafty: lulling batters to sleep by starting off with 3-0 counts.

Taking into account a 'normal' number of injuries to both pitching and position players, I think this team can win 90 games...one more than in 2007.

Reason: I think the back end of the bullpen will be better than 2007 once Lidge returns. Remember, Gordon was shot early last year, Myers moved to the pen - that hurt the rotation, and Myers was out for over six weeks.

I think the rotation shapes up similarly to last year - a little better on the front end assuming Myers and Hamels stay healthy.

The offense will probably be just as good, assuming Utley isn't out for a month, and Howard isn't lost for 2 weeks. I also look for Burrell to have a good year as well.

So, barring any major injuries, I think it shapes up to about one more win than last year.

Playoffs? That depends on what happens in the NL West.

Caveat: All win preditions are + or - 5 wins. In other words, the best of all possible worlds this team coud win 95 if eerything broke in their favor. They could also win as few as 85.

Sorry, Jimmy. I don't think 100 wins is in the cards, but I hope you and your teammates prove me wrong.

Well, I just forked out $90 to order the MLB video package, so I hope my pessimism turns out to be misplaced.

I agree with AWH's ceiling and floor. I think they'll win 91 games, outperforming themselves and their PECOTA prediction. Good enough for at least second in the division and a tie for the WC.

90-72, 2nd in NL East but good enough to win the WC.
The teams in the West will beat each other up so that no two finish with more than 90 wins.
Central has the Cubs and a collection of also-rans (I see a down year for the Brewers and Cards and an up year for the Reds), none of which will be close to contending for the WC.

Some projections:

Howard has a very solid season (51 HRs) and finishes 2nd in the MVP voting. People will still harp on his strikeouts though in one of the dumbest and longest running arguments on this board.

Jenkins posts ok numbers but doesn't distinguish himself. He will bitch to the media about playing time at least once this season.

Romero will be the Phillies' player that generates the most positive and negative comments during the course of the season on this blog. Has some real strong stretches but also has a few spectular meltdowns (including a game where he gives up a grand slam and the Phils blow a big lead).

Myers return to the rotation goes well overall (14-9 wins, 200+ innings, 190 K, 3.90 ERA) but still struggles with maturity issues in games that prevent him from becoming an All-Star.

Moyer is surprisingly effective into late May. As the temperature and season pitch count totals add up, Moyer increasingly has starts where he gets shelled. Moyer stays in rotation all year for lack of alternatives but finish the year with poor overall numbers (say an ERA around 5.25).

C. Durbin stinks although he sticks with this club out of sheer lack of alternatives. He will be given a handful of starts (7-8 starts) over the course of the season but does nothing to distinguish himself or merit consideration for bringing him back next year.

Victorino has a leg or wrist injury and misses at least 6 weeks. Phils sorely miss him as Taguchi/Werth platoon struggles.

Gordon gives the Phils one decent stretch all season (4-5 week period) but ends up on the DL my mid-May (agree with BAP on that one), doesn't give the Phils even 45 innings or finish with an ERA under 4.50.

Rollins plays in only 160 games and sees a slight fall in his numbers. Once again, though this offense will mirror what JRoll does.

Feliz won't hit 30 HRs. In fact, Feliz won't even hit more than 20 HRs. Fans will be impressed by his defense but he will become a target of the boobirds by August as his offensive output disappears for weeks on end this season.

Once again, Madson will be the most dependable arm in the pen this season but will blow the one or two save opportunities early (and prevent him from being considered as a closer).

By June 15, one of the pitchers in the Reading opening day starting rotation will get a start with the big league club. It just depends on which starter posts the strongest numbers the first 2 months of the season.

Lidge acquisition is largely a dud due to injuries and Gillick's takes a lot of heat for it. Lidge will post overall decent numbers (ERA around 3.50) but will spend a significant chunk (at least 3 months) of the season on the DL.

Coste has a subpar season overall (respectable AVG of .260 but no pop or walks) and is largely displaced by Jamarillo as the primary backup when Sept. callups come.

Finally, Phils will use nearly as many pitchers as they did last season due to injuries/ineffectiveness. Just like in 2006, the last 2 spots in the rotation are going to be revolving doors for most of the season and the middle relief will be a constant cast of changing characters.

Phils will sign a reliever who gets released in season with an ERA above 7.

Last prediction:

The Phils and numerous posters on here will clamor for the boost that Benson will give to this pitching staff. It will be much ado about nothing. Benson will return before the All-Star break, give the Phils some very mixed results, and return to the DL.

Wow, MG! All that and the Phils win 87 games.

I think if that happened you would have to add another prediction: Charlie Manuel, Manager of the Year.

Eaton will go to a sports psychologist and have him suggestion that the "BOOOOO" sounds during home games are really just cows going "MOOOOO."

It unfortunately doesn't work and Eaton is vilified in Phils' lore not so much for his poor performance but will make an outlandish comment or two he will make this season.

Eaton will though have at least one very solid start against the Mets (say 6 or 7 innings with 2 runs) and this will prompt MetsBlog/The Fan to be overwhelmed by whining from the NY metro area.

92-70, division champs, lose in WS to the Yankees.

The Phils will score runs at an unbelievably prodigious pace. The offense will put on a fireworks show of bombs and lasers that will have opponents scurrying for cover all summer.

Sorry, that last post was mine

Can we add a GG prediction for Feliz? It's not out of the question since mainstream writers are looking more and more at defensive metrics (see: Jeter).

Same team, same result: 88-74. For the second year in a row, I pick Atlanta to finish ahead of the Phillies. The Mets, overrated as usual, are in third.

The Phillies were awfully fortunate to have been in a position to reach the playoffs with under 90 wins last year. I don't expect that to happen again. There are too many strong teams in the NL West. That said, naturally they have a better chance than most to be a post-season team, so we'll see what happens.

Individual predictions:

Rollins: .314, 95 BB, 21 HR, 71 RBI
Victorino: .274, 10 HR, 65 RBI
Utley: .287, 24 HR, 96 RBI
Howard: .280, 51 HR, 153 RBI
Burrell: .262, 31 HR, 88 RBI
Feliz: .260, 26 HR, 79 RBI
Jenkins: .250, 24 HR, 90 RBI
Ruiz: .276, 12 HR, 61 RBI

Werth: .231, 4 HR, 21 RBI
Coste: .298, 3 HR, 23 RBI
Bruntlett: .261, 0 HR, 11 RBI
Taguchi: .302, 7 HR, 32 RBI
Dobbs: .258, 8 HR, 35 RBI

Myers: 16-12, 3.66 ERA
Hamels: 18-10, 4.14 ERA
Moyer: 9-10, 4.85 ERA
Kendrick: 10-15, 4.72 ERA
Eaton: 0-1, 21.00 ERA (released)
C. Durbin: 6-6, 3.22 ERA
Benson: 5-7, 5.06 ERA

Lidge: 3-6, 3.83 ERA, 34 SV
Gordon: 4-6, 4.98 ERA, 5 SV
Romero: 3-3, 2.71 ERA
Madson: 6-1, 2.46 ERA
Lahey: ?!?
Condrey: 0-4, 5.40 ERA (demoted/recalled 5 times)

NL winners: Atlanta, Cincinnati (yep), Arizona, Colorado (WC)

AL winners: Boston, Cleveland, Seattle, Los Angeles (WC)

World Series winner: Arizona

Oh, I forgot to make a prediction about Benson, so here it is: Benson never pitches an inning for the Phillies, gets hit hard in his minor league starts, and is released in May.

I see 100 win season with Howard smashing the homerun record. Hamels just misses 20 wins and establishes a stopper in Philadelphia that we have not seen sinse Carlton.
I see a rotation helped by the minors that is mutched malighned but seems to produce star after star along with good if not oustanding young arms (Hamels Myers Kendrick now Carpenter Carasco and Outman one of which will be instumental in achieving the above 100 win season. I see a divsion win with a final heartbreaking loss in the world series. Have fun all.

1) The Phillies scratch their way to 83 wins by playing spoiler in the last few weeks. Good enough for 3rd place in NL East.

2) Meyers has a fantastic season and gets 17 wins.

3) Hammels is used too hard, too often early in the season and breaks down, missing a month and a half.

4) Gordon fails to preserve more saves than Lidge actually saves.

5) Howard has a monster year with a .290, 58 hr, and leads the majors in walks. Less importantly (yet in an encouraging sign for his development), he fails to reach last year's K s.

6) Carlos Ruiz becomes an envied, respected catcher around the big leagues. He'll still hit in the 8-hole.

7) In no relation to the former, Feliz hits in the 6-hole with his 22 home runs and .240/.277.

8) Both Utley and Rollins have down years, buoyed largely by abysmal Aprils, Mays, and Junes.

9) Burrell continues hitting the way he hits. A slight spike in singles and home runs, as he continues to cut back on swinging at horrible pitches.

10) Victorino steals only two bases until Lopes returns, after which time he manages to overtake the league leader.

11) Manuel starts sending Eaton out to pinch hit against wild pitchers, hoping against all odds that Eaton gets nailed and has to go on the DL.

12) Kendrick lasts until the All Star Break, by which time no one can any longer justify the over-8 ERA. It later comes out that he was injured in January and failed to tell anyone.

13) Moyer has a big impact... a barely sub-5 ERA, but somehow transforms suspect bullpen arms into reliable workhorses.

14) The media takes serious note of the Phillies woes and, predictably, places the blame squarely in Charlie Manuel's lap. No one bothers firing him because Gillick is on his way out anyway. Next year (if I may be so bold), after an equally disappointing off-season, Manuel does get fired and he leaves by sharing his frustrations regarding the Front Office with the media.

15) The bench has a stellar year, allowing the Phillies to boast the highest pinch hitter average in the majors.

BAP- I am happy to learn that you forked over $90 for the MLB.com tv feed, so you won't be encroaching on your father's tv. Thank you. Put me down for a 3rd place finish. Kendrick,Moyer and Eaton plus their bullpen are liabilities too great to overcome, not to mention Monty, Gillick, Amaro and Cholly. The Mets will run away with the division, which should come as no surprise to anyone with any common sense.

Back on March 15, Charlie had to have a talk with the team about flipping the switch. This was pretty well reported in the media. Since then, I've pencil whipped their stats from then. Some highlights, not including today's game

Burrell 7/22, .318, 5 walks.
Feliz 7/32, .190, 11 Ks, 21 LOB. Human Out Machine, yes, but he also had 9 RBI.
Howard 7/31, .226 6 R, 15 Ks
Jenkins 11/29, .379, 5 RBI
Rollins, 7/29, .241
Ruiz, 9/27, .333, 4 R, 4 RBI
Taguchi, 6/18, .333, 4 R
Utley 6/24, .250
Victorino 10/33, .303, 6 R, 7 RBI
Werth 4/26, .154, 9 K

Pitching:
Condrey 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 3.00 ERA
C. Durbin 8 IP, 4 H. 3 ER, 4 BB, 4K, 3.38 ERA
J.D. Durbin 7 IP, 11 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 14.14 ERA
Eaton 13 IP, 20 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 4.85 ERA
Gordon 4.1 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 2 HR, 15.37 ERA
Hamels 16.1 IP, 16 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 13 K, 3 HR, 4.47 ERA
Kendrick 10 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 4.50 ERA
Madson 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 0.00 ERA
Moyer 9.2 IP, 14 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 K, 1 HR, 2.93 ERA (Not including today)
Myers 12 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1.50 ERA
Romero 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 1.50 ERA

87 wins, second place in the NL East. Braves return to their traditional first place.

Is anyone else watching this and sharing my feeling of utter revulsion?

Boy, this team sure looks ready to come confidently charging out of the gate. As usual.

100-62

Greatest Phillies Team Ever.

I'm sharing the revulsion, but not the utter. Kind of like how you see a dead animal and expect the stink of it, but it doesn't hit you for the first three seconds. Anywho, no clue how the second out was a strikeout. Some of the flattest, movement-less pitches this spring...

Mike: In other words, he pitches kind of like an ex-catcher, who has recently been converted to a pitcher, and who has only pitched 178 innings of baseball in his entire life. Sounds like just the kind of guy the Phillies need to solve their bullpen problems.

We have a bingo, BAP...

I'll go with 87-75 and third place.

86 - 76, a few games behind the wildcard winner.

88 wins and a wildcard berth.

Any advancement in the playoffs will be determined by moves made at the trading deadline or any minor leaguers that really step up during the regular season.

I'm drinking the Flavor-Aid.

94-68

The Phils get off to a surprisingly good start in April ending the month at 18-10. This sets the tone for the rest of their remarkable season.

The Phillies complete the MVP trifecta, as Chase Utley wins the award he would have won last year had he stayed healthy. In fact, the entire offense is explosive this year and is far and away the best in the National League (but still about 50 runs short of the Yankees in the AL).

The Phils 5th starter is predictably bad for the first 2 months of the season, but the Phillies win a lot of 10-7 ball games so it's not as bad as it could have been. Benson then comes off the DL and is effective as the teams 5th starter the rest of the way. Hamels and Myers are as good as advertised and manage to stay healthy all year. Hamels just misses winning the Cy Young (which ends up going to Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks).

The Phillies bullpen takes shape after Lidge returns from the DL and ends up being a positive for the team; he ends up pitching 67 innings, striking out 83, and saving 48 games. Of course, Gordon's shoulder really is hurt and he eventually goes on the 60 day DL, but the other relievers step up (mainly Madson and Romero) and the team doesn't miss a beat. Fabio Castro is shockingly good when he returns from the DL.

Gillick makes several acquisitions throughout the season, 1 or 2 of which actually pan out.

The Phillies win the NL East with with a healthy, if not comfortable, margin. The Mets finish 5 games back and the Braves 7.

This Flavor-Aid is delicious.

So the Jays requested the DH for the series and are hitting their relief pitcher in the top of the 8th??

I wouldn't read too much into Romero's striking out the side just now, especially with joe l's comment being correct. But that is a 1.28 ERA since March 15th. With a "quality start" from the starters, we might see Madson and Romero as the bridge more often than Romero and Gordon or Madson and Gordon. Matchups will dictate, of course. But gone are the days of Joe Table and El Pulpo. We can all be thankful for that...

WHY WASTE WORDS -THE 2008 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES WITH BE THE WORLD CHAMPIONS-PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I HAVE BEEN A PHILLIES FAN FOR 48 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

88-74 tied for the division, win the playoff game to win the division, while loser goes on to other one-game playoffs in a wild and wacky few days. DBacks happily sit and wait for their first opponent.

I thought the elderly didn't type like small children. There's no way Childers makes the team, is there?

RSB's prediction is my favorite. 88-74 with our pitchers accounting for 81 losses. That should be interesting.

Someone give McCarthy a hat out there!

The Phils and Mets battle to the last week for the division title. Mets take it with 90 wins and the Phils finish 2 back with 88 wins. The Braves finish third with 82 wins.

The Phils end up tied with the Rockies for the wild card and defeat them in a one game playoff.

I'll say Ruiz has a breakout April and Charlie doesn't bump him from #8 until late May.

Joe K - when Holiday is called out at home for missing the plate when he actually touches it, Kharma's a bitch

Brian - ha ha, whoops. The pitchers' W/L totals add up to 80-81. I guess things are either better or worse than I thought.

Alright Alphonse! Good stuff man, like to see the enthusiasm. If you were a fan of this team in the late 60s and early 70s, God bless ya.

84-82 3rd place. too little pitching- too many K's

I guess Don's predicting a 3-way tie for first in the NL East (with all 3 teams finishing at 82-80), the Phillies losing the 1-game playoff for the division title, then dropping into an 8-way tie for the WC, winning the first 2 games of the 8-team WC playoff, and finally losing in the one-game WC final. That's the only scenario I can think of in which a team finishes at 84-82.

Oh . . .and the team that beats them in the WC final would have to be another NL East team, thereby leaving the Phillies in third place in the division.

84 wins. Offensively we will score a lot of runs but will also leave some off the board as I think Cholly will use Feliz in the 6-hole for too long.

All of this will be moot though as the pitching will give up too many runs. Moyer's ERA will be over 5, Kendrick will have the sophomore jinx and be demoted at some point, Eaton will be Eaton. We will see plenty of different pitchers starting in the 4th/5th slot to no avail. All of that points to the bullpen being over used and ineffective the last two months. Gillick won't be able to pull off the necessary trades/signings to make us better.

Regardless, it will be a treat to watch Rollins, Vic, Utley, and Howard again. I am expecting 55 HRs from Howard, 25 from Utley and Rollins.

After this game today I don't have much optimism. 86-76, tied for second in the division. People clamoring for the Eagles in late July. No WC and the Tigers win the World Series.

91 Wins. Phils win the division.

I've been a combined 4 games off in the past two season when predicting the record.

2008 record for the Phils- 82-80.

NL East:
1. Mets
2. Braves
3. Phillies
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

Obviously no playoffs for the Phils, they're pitching is going to kill them.

90-72, second place to Mets, wild card winner. Win first round of playoffs. Lose in an exciting NLCS.

Wow, I just finally read over all the predictions thus far and I'm the one predicting the worst outcome so far...ouch.

If the bullpen stands as is, 86 wins, no playoffs. Addition of a setup-quality arm to the bullpen: 90 wins.

Clout- I'm shocked by your prediction, I thought you'd be closer to me. I know our offense is awesome, but the pitching is horrendous, possibly moreso that last season.

Unless Manuel regularly bats Feliz 6th vs. RHP, in which case 84 wins even with the bullpen upgrade.

that last post was mine. Carson, I think the pitching could be worse but an addition to the bullpen would make it better.

92 wins. And I'm not that worried about this team this year. I love what we have at the top of the rotation and our lineup is the best in the league. I think Moyer and Kendrick will be just crafty enough. I think our bullpen will be better than last year and Lidge will have a very good season. I think we'll pick up enough help here or there to fill the major holes. We win the East and lose in the NLCS.

I liked and trusted Kendrick last season. When he came up he gave us what I expected from him (actually a bit better in terms of era), but I think he's a trainwreck waiting to happen this season.

Starting line-up:
1. Rollins – .280/25/85 125 runs scored -- .775 OPS
2. Victorino -- .290/20/75 500 ABs 45 SBs -- .750 OPS
3. Utley -- .325/32/120 55 doubles -- .950 OPS
4. Howard -- .275/53/145 200 strikeouts – 1.000 OPS
5. Burrell -- .260/30/110 500 ABS -- .900 OPS
6. Jenkins -- .260/23/80 475 ABS -- .800 OPS
Werth -- .270/15/60 300 ABS -- .825 OPS
7. Feliz -- .265/25/85 .300 OBP -- .725 OPS
8. Ruiz -- .270/13/70 125 games 25 GIDPs -- .725 OPS
Dobbs – .280 25 pinch hit RBIs
Coste – .230 8 HR 38 RBIs

Pitchers
Hamels 17-8 3.10 ERA 215 innings/200 strikeouts
Myers 16-10 3.40 ERA 240 innings
Moyer 11-13 5.10 ERA 190 innings
Kendrick 7-11 5.40 ERA 150 innings
Eaton – 4-8 5.50 ERA 120 innings
Benson – 5-3 4.30 ERA 100 innings
Lidge – 2.80 ERA 38 saves, 5 blown saves
Gordon 4.75 ERA 40 appearances
Romero 3.80 ERA 75 appearances
Madson 3.25 ERA 65 appearances
Final record – 87-65; 6 games behind the Mets; 3 games behind the Braves
The story of the season will be the lack of starting pitching after Hamels and Myers; and the lack of any reliable relief pitching other than Lidge and Madson, who will replace Tom Gordon as the set-up guy when he is ineffective and then winds up on the DL in July, not to return and subsequently retiring. Eaton will spend substantial time on the DL and will be replaced in June by Kris Benson, who will be a serviceable 5th starter. The team will break 900 runs scored but will remind people of the 1930 Phillies for their prodigious offense and lack of pitching.

91 wins and NL East champs, 1 game over Braves and 4 over Marlins and Mets. Chase wins MVP, with Howard 3rd (Holliday finishes 2nd to a Phillie again), and Burrell 6th in the voting. Despite the pitching questions, I've got a good feeling about this team - solid core players, intangibles, and leadership.

JAS- liked the way you went and predicted everything, but since I only see 60 wins for the starting pitchers you listed, where are the other 27 wins that you predicted going to come from...the bullpen?

Damn I need to get on the happy train to looneyville with the rest of you predicting all this overcoming the pitching woes stuff.

They're an 85-88 win team, 3rd place out of playoffs. They just don't have the pitching. Blame Gillick and the FO for that.

91 wins. Division Title.

East: Phils
Central: Cincinatti
West: Rockies
WC: Diamondbacks

East: Red Sox
Central: Tigers
West: Mariners
WC: Indians

WS - Tigers defeat Phils

Seriously. Mets don't make the playoffs.

Leave it to clout to give 3 different win totals for his prediction.

...though I agree hitting Feliz 6th is foolish.

Cole and Brett will combine for 35 wins but Johan Santana wins the Cy Young. Ryan Howard will be robbed of the MVP despite deserving numbers (50+HR, 135 RBI). The FO will struggle to fill all the pitching holes as injuries occur, but the stars will carry the load and lead the Phillies to a 90 win season and a Wild Card berth.

it's been a long offseason, too long!

prediction: phils miraculously improve on last year's win total, taking 91 games with the suspect staff and ridiculous pen....yet miss the playoffs, coming up a few games behind the mets while a team from the west steals the WC after the mets and phils beat each other up. overrated braves lose 85+ games.

other random predictions: carlos has a breakout year, kendrick does okay for a few starts but gets hit hard when the weather warms up and is sent down for a spell, adam eaton continues to 'feel great out there' while his ERA lingers around 6, jroll and/or pat burrell start slow out of the gate and some genius on beerleaguer advocates trading him for middle relief and moving feliz to SS...

No Fultz for the Phils. Crap. He signed a minor-league deal with the Tigers.

I thought about it before looking at anyone else's, just based on "gut feeling."

88 - 74, second place

In the NL East, with the West so strong, that means no play-offs.

I also expect that not making the play-offs will keep Howard from winning the MVP again, despite a monster year. Next year, the OF will be Jenkins-Victorino-Werth.

RSB:
So far this, for me, is the highlight of this thread
"Eaton: 0-1, 21.00 ERA (released)"

(Although, if Bruntlett outhits Werth, I'll begin looking for Jeltz to be voted into the HOF and Nader to be President.) (And a healthy snowfall on Satan's stoop.)

Yes, GM-Carson, 27 wins from the bullpen, which may actually be low. If you eliminate the top five winners from last year's team (Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Kendrick, Lohse), they had 37 wins from others.

Thanks for the compliment re: predicting everything. I plainly have gone out on many limbs here by doing so. Although, as I was doing it, I felt like I was being quite conservative because I didn't really pick many career best years or career worst years. Seriously, how much courage does it take to predict, for instance, Burrell -- .260/30/110 500 ABS -- .900 OPS? That's basically what he's done each of the past three years, right?

But I figured that there's no money involved, and I want to look back at the end of the year to see how wrong I was. If past accuracy had anything to do with future credibility, Ray Didinger (of whom I am a big fan) would never have a job discussing the Eagles. I figure that you'll all (except maybe clout) give me a break when I prove horribly off base. So there it is . . .

What if Feliz hits 7th but the moon is in the seventh house and Adam Eaton breaks out in hives? Seriously... pick a number!

84-78, third place.

East (in order): mets (94), braves (90), phils (84), nats (80), marlins (69).

pitching staff: 2nd worst era in the league.
runs scored: 3rd in nl.

myers, hamels, gordon, madson, and eaton spend time on the dl.

moyer and kendrick have era's over 5.

j-roll hits no higher than .275, no more than 15 hrs.

Surprising that, with all the pessimism we usually have on this board, no one has predicted a losing record. I mean, with a few injuries & a couple breaks that go the wrong way, it certainly COULD happen.

I think we were waiting for all the Mets trolls to come on board and say the Phillies were going to go 0-162. At least I was.

I was waiting for bruceg to say it

Agreed RSB best comment possibly overlooked by most.

"Eaton: 0-1, 21.00 ERA (released)"

Probably best comment I have read in the past 2 weeks.

Long live the ABE!

Here's how the 08 regular season plays out:

As March came to an end this team was riddled with dissension and indifference. Even Charlie's most eloquent opening day speech ever could not motivate them. One Beerleaguer even posted that it was because its top paid players this year, Burrell $14 million and Howard $10 million, were not its most valuable players and were over paid. On the other hand Rollins and Utley, got off to slow starts which they carried over from spring training. Another Beerleaguer posted that the reason for the slow start might have been that the team had it with Adam Eaton whose $7.65 million 08 salary was higher than the 08 salaries of both Utley and Rollins and he was only a few dollars short of being the team's highest paid pitcher. Eaton continued to embarrass himself with his efforts and his stupid remarks in which he continued to praise himself in post game interviews even though his ERA hovered around 7.00 requiring the team to score at least 8 runs every time he pitched just to have a chance to win .

By July 4th the Phils finally got over .500 after placing Eaton on the 60 day DL and the GM told him to stay away from the team for the rest of the season. One Beerleaguers posted that it was Gillick finest move in his three year tenure and would only add to his Hall of Fame credentials. To replace Eaton, Andrew Carpenter was recalled from Reading and Chris Coste became his designated catcher. He turned out to be an innings eating, work horse who gave nothing but quality starts the rest of the season though Gillick still complained about his weight. At the same time Rollins and Utley got contract extensions thanks to the intervention of John Middleton who tapped into some of that cigar money but said he would only do it one time. The team started to roll with an incredible second half.

During the final week of the season Charlie was forced to use a three man rotation because of injuries and the lack of budget flexiblilty because Kris Benson was signed back in May and lasted just two starts before his labrum tore for good and he was helped off the mound with Anna in tears in the stands. Myers, Hamels and Carpenter all took the ball on two days rest to key a sweep of the three games series with the Braves who they had to beat to stay in contention for the division title. Then they won two more against the Nats. Some Beerleaguers posted that Carpenter's extra lbs. and Hamels' chiropractor allowed them to have the stamina to work on two days rest. In the must win final game of the season J-Roll singled, stole second and scored on a frozen rope single by Utley which gave the Phils the lead in the bottom of the 8th. Then Howard and Burrell struck out to set a team record in K's in one season to end the inning. Brett Myers was called upon to pitch the top of the 9th as an emergency closer and again retired the Nats in order to clinch the NL East and a playoff spot before 45,000 screaming fans at the Bank. But the victory celebration was low keyed because the team leaders, J-Roll and Uts, grabbed the stadium mic and told the team and fans no excessive celebrations and Harry the K not to sing this time until they actually win the World Series.

87 - 90 wins. If the bats heat up in April and we get off to great start.

Dull -- does Cholly pinch hit this year?

I predict by end of season the phils and everyone on here will be saying we should of resigned Rowand since Jenkins & werth combined will break Howards strike-out record and will not get 20 hrs between them.
Meantime Rowand will have a good year in San Franisco hitting over 300 and driving in more than 100 runs. Homers will be in low 20's.
Phils end of 3rd with 83 wins.

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