Welcome to Washington, baseball's great American melting pot. We check in with blogger Chris Needham for our annual look at the mixed-bag Nats. [Depth chart]
Beerleaguer: There was a good article last week on the Nationals' Web site about Jim Bowden having success last season acquiring bargain reclamation projects, which is a topic that always interests me. This season appears to be no different, where Brett Boone is trying to make a comeback, Odalis Perez is a non-roster invitee, and Elijah Dukes will be given a second chance despite his sketchy past. What do you expect from this season's scrap pile?
Chris Needham: Of those three, Boone's the one who has the least chance to contribute. The Nats are pretty deep (even if lacking talent) on the infield, so he'd have a tough battle. I'd expect that Perez makes the club out of spring if he doesn't blow up in spring. The team needs some depth with the starting pitching, especially with Shawn Hill's and John Patterson's injury histories. He'll be this year's warm body to mop up some innings, so long as he can keep his ERA under 6! Dukes is definitely interesting. I can't stand the move as a fan, even if I understand it as a purely baseball decision. The guy's got a world of talent. If he can just harness it -- and he'll be given every chance to contribute this year, even if he's likely starting as the 4th outfielder -- the sky's the limit.
Beerleaguer: You said last season that front office officials were quietly bracing for 100 losses, which didn't happen. Why didn't it?
Chris Needham: First, I'm not sure those expectations were quite reasonable. As bad as the pitching looked, it wasn't much better the year before that, and there WAS a lot of talent on the team -- Zimmerman, Kearns, Cordero, Rauch, etc. The biggest reasons why they didn't go down the tank was because Manny Acta leveraged the strengths of the club. He nursed the terrible SP through the barest of contributions, turning the ball over to the mostly excellent bullpen at first chance. The bullpen pitched a ton of innings, quite effectively, keeping the team in a bunch of games where the SP didn't make it out of the 5th. Throw in a surprising season from Dmitri Young, and there was just enough to be bad, not terrible.
Beerleaguer: What was your take on the Lastings Milledge deal?
Chris Needham: Thinking about the trade, even weeks later, still makes me smile. I liked both Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, but neither is truly a championship-caliber player. Schneider took a lot of credit for holding the pitching together, but the amount of credit for that increased as the quality of his bat decreased, and I was always skeptical of that because of that. I'm looking forward to seeing Milledge -- whose biggest offense seems to be cheesing off crotchety old white sportswriters and redneck former Phillies closers -- play and live up to that potential. It's likely that he's going to do as well as Church did, for a fraction of the cost, and with a potential to go beyond that in the future.
Beerleaguer: When talking about the best right-handers in the National League, should Shawn Hill be included in the discussion?
Chris Needham: The Shawn Hill who's already being sent for his yearly forearm MRI? Nope, not yet. When he's healthy, perhaps, but that occurs about as often as an Adam Eaton quality start.
Beerleaguer: How does the rotation shape up?
Chris Needham: I'm not looking at it as a rotation, but a depth chart. They have too many guys with injury problems, or who have questions about their ability to pitch in the majors. The first wave is likely to include Hill, John Patterson, Jason Bergmann, Tim Redding and recently signed Odalis Perez. The second wave likely features Philly's favorite son John Lannan, Matt Chico, Tyler Clippard, Garret Mock and Ross Detwiler. (Rubbing your hands and drooling at the possibilities yet?)
Beerleaguer: Is the bullpen still the Nats’ greatest strength?
Chris Needham: It certainly was last year. Rauch and Saul Rivera have been ironmen. I do wonder, though, if that workload is going to catch up to them one of these days. Chad Cordero seems like he's worn down towards the end in a few of these seasons. But, like the rotation, they have a lot of depth. Unlike the rotation, there's some quality depth. I'd expect Acta to again go to the pen early and often, trying to nurse any lead he can get.
Beerleaguer: What's the situation between Ryan Zimmerman and Nationals regarding a long-term deal?
Chris Needham: The team doesn't like to talk contracts in the public, and the only thing they've said is that they'd consider something like the deal that Troy Tulowitzki just signed. Given that he has much less service time and it's covering an early range of years, that's pretty laughable if that's the offer. It seems like Zimmerman's content to just go year to year, especially with Ryan Howard lugging the market up a notch or two.
Beerleaguer: Can the Nationals count on repeat performances from players like Ronnie Belliard and Dimitri Young, and what should we expect from the rest of the regulars?
Chris Needham: In the case of Belliard and Young, the good thing is that even if they don't, Felipe Lopez and Nick Johnson are there to pick up the slack. I'd probably even give that twosome the early lead in the battles for first and second, respectively.
The team seems to really be eager to give Pena 500 ABs to prove himself. Can hit hit 40 homers? Will he strike out 250 times? Will his on-base be higher than Pedro Feliz's? If you've got a fantasy team, I'd buy low on Kearns. I think he's ready for a breakout. RFK just killed him, and he struggled early in the year with the mechanics of his swing. He was much better in the second half and on the road, and I really think that this is the year he could live up to that potential he's shown in prior years.
Chris Needham is the author of Capitol Punishment, a blog about the Washington Nationals.
Bar none, this is the strangest assortment of players in baseball. This is the Ellis Island of baseball, players from all over the map, not geographically, but all took different paths. You got some reclaimation projects, some minor league journeymen like Redding, a criminal in Dukes, raw talents like Milledge and Pena, has-beens like Boone, blue chippers like Zimmerman, old pros like Young. Very good bullpen. Always a tough series.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 10:40 AM
Needham gives a good interview. Nice balance between optimistic hopes and realistic refusal to drink kool-aid. He should be a regular beerleaguer (if not already).
Thanks JW.
Posted by: Andy | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:05 AM
Really like the job Acta did last season. An eclectic mix of talent to say the least. Some payback due for throwing at Utley. Andy, from previous thread - Feliz comes as advertised. He's a hacker. He can drive the ball, but seems to have same approach regardless of count or situation.
Posted by: Billy Mac | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:07 AM
This year's Nationals team reminds me of Major League - getting guys from all over the place (including jail) and trying to mix them together. Barring something totally unforeseen they won't contend, but will be much closer to the top 3 teams in the standings than they will be to the Marlins. Pesky team that definitely hurt the Phils, Mets and Braves. Phillies won the season series vs. the Nats 12-6 last year. The Mets split with them 9-9, but obviously lost 5 of 6 in the final few weeks.
Posted by: BENTZ | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Should say "pesky team that could hurt the Phils, Mets and Braves'
Posted by: BENTZ | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:31 AM
I'm looking forward to watching the Nationals this year (as a DC resident). if they weren't in such a competitive division, they could be an interesting dark horse for the playoffs.
of course, pretty much everything would have to go right for them to even finish at .500, but for a second division team they've got a surprisingly deep roster. and Acta is quickly becoming my favorite manager in baseball. comes off as very smart in interviews and players really respond to him.
also, they should have a big impact on the division race. I don't think they'll be pushovers, even if/when they struggle. that's one reason I think the NL East winner will end up with fewer victories than a lot of people think; without a Pittsburgh to beat up on it would be tough for an East team to win 100.
Posted by: ae | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:32 AM
ae: What about Florida? They look rather weak.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:34 AM
I guess I'm always gunshy of counting out FL, since they always seem to come up with quality pitching out of nowhere. but yeah, they don't look very good on paper.
Posted by: ae | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I am interested in their new yard, especially compared to RFK. It looks like an incredible facility and will keep an eye on how it plays.
Although Matt Chico does not make me drool, he was able to shut down the Phils on the second to last day of the season when they were pretty red hot. I was impressed.
Posted by: Mike H. | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:40 AM
ae: They definitely have talent. You can't deny that. They need someone to step up in the rotation, and I don't know that Olsen is the guy. They could also use a breakout season or two from guys like Hermida and Jacobs. Ramirez is a scary hitter, no matter what.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:40 AM
Wow - didn't realize Hermida finished with an .870 OPS. Not bad. Hmm. Maybe I'm underestimating them.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:42 AM
What I wonder is if the rag-tag rotation approach by the Nats will work in their new ballpark this season. RFK covered up some pretty lousing starting pitch the past few seasons for the Nats. If the Nats new stadium even plays offensively neutral, you are going to see a ton of Nats' starters with ERA well north of 5 (and even some 6s).
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Many baseball/fantasy analysts are predicting Hermida for a "break out" year.
Posted by: GM-Carson | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Marlins will be the worst team in the NL and among the worst in the NL (vying with the lifeless Pirates and offensively-inept Giants). Their offense won't be as good as last year with Cabrera's departure and my money is on the the Marlins' for having the worst starting rotation in baseball. Mitre is penciled as their No. 1 and tall-stiff Mark Hendrickson is penciled as No. 3? Ugly.
Only way it is not is if Olsen can rebound from injury problems and Miller can show that he his stuff is not completely overrated (i bet he posts an average year for a back-end rotation guy but nothing to write home out).
The only way the Marlins avoid a 95+ loss season is if their underrated bullpen comes through with another solid season and if they get a rebound from Sanchez and/or Johnson in the second half.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 11:53 AM
I really think the Nationals are a front line starter away from being a contender.
They have a really good bullpen. They have a line-up that could a ton of runs and they have depth as Needham pointed out. Johnson and Belliard could start for some teams and they are bench players.
They have some decent starters in Chico and Bergmann. If Hill can stay healthy he's a good pitcher.
I don't think they'd win the division but I could see them getting 80-85 wins in a season with a top starter
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Offensively inept? But they have Aaron Rowand!
Snort.
Posted by: Mike H. | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Death to Lannan!
http://allswingsconsidered.wordpress.com/
Posted by: costesflamingbat | Tuesday, March 04, 2008 at 12:12 PM