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Monday, March 17, 2008

Comments

When did Victorino become overrated and troublesome?

I do not feel Victorino is over-rated or troublesome. I love him. His defense and speed are huge assests and we need him in our outfield!

He's a lot to handle ... Maybe it's not the best word.

Closed door meetings? He sounds like a handful. You hear things, too. And he's overrated. There's no question.

The combination of Victorino's speed and throwing arm makes him among the best fielding CFs in baseball. As a hitter, he is undisciplined and has not learned to lay off bad pitches and take more walks. He is an extraordinary base stealer, so he needs to work on his OBP. To describe him as overrated and troublesome is totally inaccurate.

as always, the term overrated depends on whose rating him.

If the contention is that we could receive more value for him than he is worth, I could buy that. There's a lot of teams out there looking for a guy who can steal bases to lead off for them.

But then we don't have a centerfielder.

Problem is....he's only overrated by the Phils. I believe that the rest of MLB has him rated just about right. In other words, very little trade value.

If the Phillies are presented with an opportunity to greatly improve their pitching, Taguchi, Snelling, Werth would take turns in center field next season.

An outfield of Burrell, Jenkins, Taguchi, Snelling, and Werth...what are we the Baltimore Orioles? C'mon now!

Weitzel,

As you know, I normally agree with you on most accounts, but we absolutely NEED Vic. Swapping out a strength to cover a weakness, while making that stength then in turn become a weakness is unwise in my opinion.

GM...And Vic changes your equation?

What about the Pirates as a trade partner? Marte and one of their CFs in a package deal?

Trading Victorino would be idiotic. It would have made more sense to trade Rowand at last years trade deadline or sign & trade him this year to get the pitching we needed. Now Rowand is gone and soon after replaced by Jenkins but still no pitching rotation acquisition. The Phils should have sucked it up and re-signed Lohse when his price tag went down.

What other teams need a center fielder? Wasn't the center fielder market open this winter with Torii Hunter, Rowand, Andruw Jones, etc.? I'm trying to look at this from an outside-in perspective and can't think of any other team that would want him for pitching.

The Phils FO must be really high on Werth if the situation is at this point.

B. Myers is the Phillies significant upgrade to our rotation but only if we'd kept Lohse and dumped that other bum whose name escapes me at the moment

I agree w/Mike. I am not at all against trading Vic. And I'm okay w/ Werth, Taguchi, Snelling. Just don't think Phils have anything to put into a packjage.

J....Regarding Snelling, it looks like you're hinting at keeping Snelling over Coste.

I don't think a guy becomes troublesome because of one ten-minute meeting, but depending on what we could get for him you'd have to consider it.

Does anyone really know what that ten minute meeting was about? It could just be that someone in the ownership group or front office has a daughter who's been "doin' the hula."

He's a lot to handle, not troublesome. Poor turn of phrase. Forget I wrote it. Forget about it.

As far as center field being weak this winter, 1/3 of clubs aren't players in the free agent market because they can't afford it. With Vic, that wouldn't be an issue.

When they lost Vic to the calf injury last season, I don't recall the offense going down the tubes.

There'a actually a free agent CF still unsigned who can be as productive as Vic next season ...

E3- Howard flat-out missed a catch on a pick-off attempt from Durbin. Ugly.

anyone know if this one is televised?

It is- Comcast SportsNet

Gillick is like the guy who is failing a course and now trying to cram before the final in order to pass.

What I don't understand is if the Phils are so intent on not taking any substantial salary on how are they going to add a player like Fuentes?

If anything, they are likely are going to tinker like they have the previous 2 seasons and make a minor deal or two before the start of the season. No chance a guy like Fuentes ends up here.

Howard pulled a few of those bone-headed mistakes last season on pick-off throws too. I love his offense, but I hate his defense, he literally looks lost out there sometimes. He can't start the double play either, which irks me.

Weitzel, you're entitled to your opinion on Vic, just expect to be questioned about. Lord knows I voice me opinion enough and it doesn't always meld well with others'.

I've heard a few Phillies announcers discuss how Howard's defense has improved since last season.

I don't think we'll ever have a gold glover there, but it's nice to hear he's working on it.

CJ- they said the same bullshit lie last season too.

If the Phils could trade Victorino for Fuentes, I would do it in a heartbeat. This trade rumor tells me that the Phils have almost no faith in their bullpen going into the season.

Fuentes would not only solidify the setup role but it would help the bullpen by moving Romero back to a primary situational reliever and Madson as a 6th/7th inning guy.

Sign Lofton then and call it a day. If not, you could always swing another minor deal with the Pirates to get one of their no-hit CF like Duffy.

I love at having Victorino for the next 4 seasons as a very good thing. Trading him for Fuentes who will be gone following this season doesn't make sense to me. Not only that, why would the Rockies want Vic? They have Holliday, Hawpe, Taverez, and Spillbourghs already, while Cory Sullivan to spare.

I would love to see Fuentes here (even though there is no shot it happens). He annihilates lefties, has put up very solid numbers the past 3 seasons, and more importantly he has not been abused with an excessive workload the past 2-3 years.

Howard has trouble starting the DP, eh?

And on cue... Ryno turns a tough broken bat double play.

What do ya know, Carson? Howard just turned one.

If the Rox make a deal using Fuentes, surely they'll be looking for a second baseman and not an OF.

Maybe we could trade them Casey Smith!

Weitzel - I like that deal.

Seriously, though; if we're gonna trade Vic, look at the Pods. They have Edmonds starting in Center and a whole buncha relief pitchers who are decent.

I get so tired of the "Howard is the worst defensive player" ever argument. First, he is definitely below average but he is not the worst 1B in the league. He also did have not a worse defensive season last year than in '06.

Fans just like to harp on things at times without being truly objective.

Chooch comes through with two outs. He's had a really nice spring.

If they were going to trade Vic, then they should not have unloaded Bourn.
Simple as that.

Now if you want to harp on Burrell's defense in LF you will get no argument for me. His defensive stats have slipped across the board and almost every defense stat shows Burrell was arguably the worst LF in the NL last year.

In re: Vic to the Pods....Joe Thatcher, for instance. (The Pods would do that as fast as the Rox would go for Casey Smith, though.)

Andy Marte reminds me of something I wanted to post...

He's TERRIBLE with a glove apparently... and Cleveland is worried about making him their regular third baseman because of that. Sound familiar?

I never once said "Howard is the worst defensive player". I did see his defense is bad though, and he often appears lost and for the most part has a difficult time starting the double play. I prefaced my statement by saying I love his offense, and overally I love having him on our team, but I'm not to sit back and kiss his ass and act like he's perfect because an improved campaign on defense would be greatly welcomed by me.

Wow... after those two plays, maybe they'll be interested in Wes Helms as a defensive replacement at third.

Crazy Jon - you are, of course, completely right. "Shoulds" don't always work with Gillick, however. (Like "We should get relief pitching during the off-season." "Any third baseman we pay for should be able to hit." "We should get some value when we trade top-line OFs to the Yankees." And so on.)

Sorry, Jason, when I read "you hear things," I have to wonder what sort of things you've heard. You can't back away now that you brought it up... can you?

Gotta say, with the "everyday players" line-up that Chollie posted today, I find Feliz batting sixth ahead of Werth to be especialy troubling. It appears, now, that Manuel is seriously considering that spot for Senor Out.

Finally ... offense!!!

Alby: Well, how about every time Wheels says Victorino is a handful during broadcasts. Once a week at least.

Heads up baserunning by Ruiz there. Nice to see the Phils getting around the bases today.

"If the Phils could trade Victorino for Fuentes, I would do it in a heartbeat. "

This is just crazy. Jason and MG you are waaay overvaluing bullpen talent.

Discounting service time, what would Fuentes get on the open market. $5M per season, $6?

What about Vic? Take a look at the contracts that Matthews Jr. and Pierre got, 9-10M! A starting CF (even an average one) is simply worth way more to a team than a good eighth inning pitcher. It's not even close.

It's unblievable that we would want to trade a young, inexpensive player at a crucial defensive position for a set-up man. Just nuts!

Victorino to the Mets for Joe Smith and Aaron Heilman?

I know it's not likely since they're in the same division, but I think it's a good trade for both teams.

It takes something to get something. Victorino has upside and some tools (speed, arm) and he is cheap which makes him our most valuable commodity who isn't named Kendrick and isn't untouchable (Howard, Rollins, Utley Myers or Hamels).

If we can get a good relief pitcher or a number 3 starter for Victorino and prospects, I think the Phils have to do it. Remember a good starter helps the Pen because going 7+ innings rests the pen.

Rico Brogna: you are way overvaluing Victorino

jason - lots of problems with the site the last couple of days. I use firefox... Right now it just loaded all three columns in one long column

"If we can get a good relief pitcher or a number 3 starter"

Again, this is silly. A number 3 starter is waaay more valuable than a good relief pitcher.

Vic is far too much to give up to get a bullpen arm, and not nearly enough to get a good number 3 starter.

Yeah I guess I might be. Plus, the Mets might not want to deal two arms that both have roster spots. They have a surplus, but would likely only deal one arm.

I think Heilman would be a better fit. He hasn't started in a year or two, but he'd be our #4, or a great setup guy. Nice to have some flexibility.

Slocs, no he isn't. The Mets wouldn't do that trade because they already have a good center fielder, but talent-wise that is more than a fair deal.

Heilman's a solid bullpen arm and Smith is a question mark.

Vic is a 28 yo player making near the minimum who will get 550-600 ABs, score 100 runs and swipe 50 bags.

Nice to see the Phils jumping out to a big lead, and good to see Chase crush one early. And Eaton with three shutout innings? Could the luck of the Irish be with the Phils this St. Paddy's Day weekend?

On Vic: On balance I vote no. Positives are base stealing ability and speed on a team that seems to lack a little of that; some upside on offense if he becomes more disciplined at the plate; near Gold Glove potential in CF?; fits in well with the current outfield configuration and platoon; possible leadership potential if he can mature and accept responsibility as an everyday player (Phils may need an additional outgoing personality there to offset Rowand); good salary situation. I sense a chance for him to become one of the team's real true core as an everyday player at a key position. Some people grow up and rise to that occasion.

Cons are: a bit injury prone; too many of the above are hypotheticals assuming he matures as a person and player. Some people never do grow up and reach their potential. Not sure what the closed door meeting was about other than reading between the lines that Cholly might have been hammering on him to get more focused, which doesn't bode well. I had not been aware there was a problem. And every day of ST as the staff gets lit up, the need for pitching which everyone has been seething about all winter, is underlined.

Yes the Mets have an incredible CF, but they also have an aging Alou in LF. Having 2 backup OFers (Vic and Endy) that can play all 3 OF positions is big.

Plus, Vic is capable of being a starter, and Endy is much better suited coming off the bench.

I think the Mets would be interested.

Bourn homered this afternoon for his second of the spring - I wonder if it wasn't an inside-the-park HR.

kdon - In Fuentes case, I didn't know he was a FA this upcoming year but you are consistently undervalue bullpen guys. It is ok to fill out 1 or 2 spots in the bullpen with guys who might be a stretch. Not like the Phils who will probably have 3 or 4 guys in the pen coming out camp who are marginal.

Taking the Orioles approach of signing 3 or 4 relievers last year was foolish. The Phils' approach this offseason was just as foolish (just as it has been the past 2 years).

The problem though with this pitching staff though go back to the fact that Gillick's signings of Eaton and Gordon have been incredibly poor moves that have handicapped this team from a fiscal and performance standpoint.

Now, at this juncture it is too late to really make a substantial move or do anything. Gillick and Co. better hope that another starter from the minor league system bails them out again this year and that the Phils get lucky on one of the inevitable waiver wire relievers they pick up.

It is just highly unlikely the Phils will have a starter from their minor league system make a huge impact on their season for the 3 year in a row or that the Phils will be able to find another reliever like Romero off the waiver wire.

Right now this team looks like an 85 team win max. Going to take a couple of lucky breaks on the pitching front and a historic season from one of their offensive players (Howard or Utley) for this team to make the playoffs again.

One of the things that might be a bit overrated is Victorino's "Gold Glove" ability in CF. I think he will be a good CF this year (with a better arm than Rowand) but I don't know if his range in CF is Gold Glove caliber.

Sadly I could see Howard hitting 60 HR this year if he stays healthy all year and this team still might not make the playoffs because of their pitching. That is sad.

I have to agree with MG. Who is going to replace Rowand's production? Certainly not Feliz or Jenkins. Lidge is a question mark, but adding Myers to the rotation is a definite upgrade.

I guess the team doesn't look THAT different than last year, but the Mets are getting Santana, a healthy Pedro, and a healthy Duaner Sanchez. They have drastically improved. We can't count on them to have another collapse. The odds of it happening last year were minuscule, and it's not going to happen again.

Rico Brogna,
as a mets fan...

that trade would never happen... Heilman is an integral part of the bullpen, victorino is would be a bench player, and smith..yea hes a question mark, but they wouldn't trade a big piece of their bullpen for a backup outfielder

Rico - Mets have their issue too but I do think they will improve their win total by a few games this year. Say 92-93 wins. Let's leaves the Phils scrambling for the wildcard and it is likely going to take at least 89 wins.

I just don't see that happening but it is a long season with plenty of twist and turns. I personally though the Phils were done a couple of times last year including when Utley went down in July.

Slocs - You commented in the last thread that "The FO penny-pinching costs more money in the long run as well as takes up valuable roster spots." I have been echoing your exact sentiments for quite a while now, but being blamed for negativity.

This is how I see things...

- Please, someone on this God's green earth please tell me why Pat Gillick is still here? He has already stated that there is a 0% chance that he will be back next year. Why not send "Stand" Pat, Eaton, and Helms all packing, eat those salaries and get rid of the bad karma. I know they can't spend that money, but just write off those bad moves so that they can move forward. Those losers are what is keeping the Phils from improving, at least from a money standpoint. Basically they are wasting $10-$11 million this year because of Gillick's bone-headed signings. That money could be better spent on some other quality, proven commodities (free agents). You never mind if a FA get's injured, but signing two over-priced, warm bodies to fill a temporary need, is just bad general managing.

- Rowand's leadership is a gaping hole, since the entire club talked about how important his role was in the clubhouse, as well as on the field. I know Victorino is his replacement, but do you honestly feel that the RF platoon is better than last year? CF itself, with Vic playing there is really no better off, let alone improved. So on a whole, the outfield is not better than last year's, including the loss of Bourne. The combination of fielding a team that is no better than last year's and a woeful pitching situation does not bode well for a season full of promise. I know I am beating a dead horse, but the self imposed, Joe Banner-like salary cap, has handcuffed this team from improving significantly over the '07 model. Such a shame, considering that the FO knows this but will insist on selling us an inferior product and put their own spin on things.

"that trade would never happen... Heilman is an integral part of the bullpen, victorino is would be a bench player, and smith..yea hes a question mark, but they wouldn't trade a big piece of their bullpen for a backup outfielder"

Backup outfielder? Come on. Respect the guy. And on the Mets, he's your current No. 2 guy. Even healthy, he's at the worst the No. 3 guy and everyday right fielder.

Malcolm,

I truly think hes a backup, or platoon guy at most. Church is still a question mark, at least to me...so if Alou is healthy, hes obviously the #2. Church hit in a horrible hitters park, so i'd like to see how he does at Shea. I will give you that victorino is an obvious upgrade against lefty pitching than him, but by no means ideal for the Mets.

So, I am respecting him, but I truly see him as a bench player if the mets are truly healthy, and maybe a platoon

Victorino for Heilman, you must be high? Victorino is a fourth outfielder at best while Heilman is one of the best set up men in the league let alone add Joe Smith to the mix, I'm assuming that many of you are either filled with anxiety or just simply joking around but seriously you need to cut that out. I'm not saying the man is not productive, Shane is a scrappy player and extremely versatile, but seriously no one in the Majors thinks as highly of Vic as you philly fans. I personally think, just like the consensus in philly, that the FO made a HUGE mistake on neglecting to sign Lohse especially at that bargain.

Victorino for Heilman, you must be high? Victorino is a fourth outfielder at best while Heilman is one of the best set up men in the league let alone add Joe Smith to the mix, I'm assuming that many of you are either filled with anxiety or just simply joking around but seriously you need to cut that out. I'm not saying the man is not productive, Shane is a scrappy player and extremely versatile, but seriously no one in the Majors thinks as highly of Vic as you philly fans. I personally think, just like the consensus in philly, that the FO made a HUGE mistake on neglecting to sign Lohse especially at that bargain.

Victorino for Heilman, you must be high? Victorino is a fourth outfielder at best while Heilman is one of the best set up men in the league let alone add Joe Smith to the mix, I'm assuming that many of you are either filled with anxiety or just simply joking around but seriously you need to cut that out. I'm not saying the man is not productive, Shane is a scrappy player and extremely versatile, but seriously no one in the Majors thinks as highly of Vic as you philly fans. I personally think, just like the consensus in philly, that the FO made a HUGE mistake on neglecting to sign Lohse especially at that bargain.

Victorino for Fuentes? Sounds alot like the Rowand for Linebrink all the idiots were calling for last year. just like last year, you don't ship out your starting CF for a middle reliever.

I'm sorry, but if you're referring to Shane Victorino as a "4th outfielder" you must be of the retarded persuasion. If Vic hadn't been injured for a month last season, he had went for 100+ runs, 45+ steals, 15 homeruns, all while playing sparkling defense. I know he has his faults (namely plate discipline), but you need to get a f'n clue before rearing your ugly head in here with such ignorance again..."4th outfielder"- dumbass!

1) Love that the Phils are still using Queen's Flash theme song for Flash.

2) Nice to see Flash throw his curve. It was sick. Of course, the next one he threw was terrible. And of course, he then gives up a home run and a deep fly ball. Oy vey.

3) I just don't see the Phils getting a frontline bullpen arm. They won't trade Victorino (maybe last year when they still had Bourn) and they consistently overvalue the guys they have in the farm system.

4) Maybe on Bizaro-world Victorino wouldn't start for the Mets...but we don't live on Bizaro-world. Victorino becomes the defacto starting rightfielder on that team, would the Phillies trade him (which they won't).

5) I'd like to see the Phils pick up Fuentes, but I just don't see the Phils being able to make that trade. If the Rox would take the blocked Casey Smith or Adrian Cardenas, however, I'd make that trade in a second.

who gives a @&$! about Kyle Lohse? You would think this guy was contending for the CY Young. he thought he was worth alot more than he was and he's still overpaid at that "bargain" price. he's not even good. phils made a run at him, he thought he was worth more...adios. they're not going to beg him to sign.

CC: We tried to re-sign Lohse and for $7MM per year, but he declined. His fault.

I still don't get this "Vic is a fourth OF at best" talk. I'll say he's definitely an appropriate third OF, but he showed last year he was and is an effective everyday player.

I wouldn't trade Vic. They have nothing suitable to take his place. I don't want a Burrell/Werth/Jenkins outfield with Taguchi and Snelling next in line. It's too late now to fix the pen. Time to groom the kids and hope two pan out into good relievers.

How 'bout them Phightin' Phils? They're on their longest winning streak of spring training. To paraphrase Ernie Banks, let's take two (in a row).

Here's a link to some guy who thinks Lohse should sue Boras. That would be so much fun.

http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=1117

Whoops. Me spell Bizarro the right way. Me so smart.

Healthy Pedro: I'll believe it when I see it. Yes, I've watched his ST starts, too. Great springs are fine, but when you have to overrely on shoulder-tweaking pitches over six months, all baseball fans have the right to be skeptical.

Rowand's production will be made up by Burrell in his contract year, so that he can make the big bucks as a DH in the AL, and having Utley for the whole year. Barring no injuries, of course. The question we should ask is who makes up J-Roll's expected downturn in production.

Pat Gillick is following and executing orders from Monty and the boys upstairs. Don't shoot the messenger.

Was Rowand more vocal last year to "inspire his teammates" or to pump himself up to have a big season in a contract walk year? Two people really know the answer to that question, but it's worth mentioning. The paper would like you to think his leadership is a missing slice of the pizza. But where is his leadership in taking the big money in San Francisco? It's a fine line. The paper is trying to spin it one way, incorrectly, in my opinion.

MG - disagree (mildly) on Vic's range. I think he'll cover a lot more ground in CF than Rowand did. Rowand got his trophy mostly on reputation. (It also didn't hurt that he had a good offensive year, too; which shouldn't matter but does, in the end.)

"Jeltz for the Hall" - maybe in the same Bizarro World where Jeltz makes the HOF they actually do spell it "Bizaro."

Hey,

I am undoubtedly one of the best baseball players to ever live who was born in France.

That's all I've got.

GM Carson, I sympathize the fact that you lack wit or conceivable thinking and have to resort to name calling. Calling me a dumbass is hardly deteriorating but I did get a good chuckle thank you very much. Ignorance? your IQ must be as low as your standards, what ignorance have to do with me calling shane a "fourth outfielder?" Really please elaborate on that one. Typical unedumacated silly fan.

Observations on the box-score.

1) I've been kidding about Vic Darensbourg, but he's worked himself into serious consideration. Yikes! Think about what that means about our bullpen. (As if we didn't already know.)

2) Did Jorge Julio really, truly, perform that amazing pitcher's feat of getting 4 Ks in just 1.0 IP? Who did he toss one by, so wildly, that they made it to first?

Look, Larry Steven Jeltz... you did have two home runs in that game against the Pirates where Jim Rooker said "Pirates have a 10-0 lead. If they lose this, I'm walking back to Pittsburgh."

That's all!

Nothing else!

Good day, sir!

:-)

It is nearly impossible to hit 40% of your career homeruns in one game...unless you're me.

Andy: Do you really think the Bizarro's spell their own name correctly?

PS What's keepin' Jeltz out of the hall? Other than his terrible offense and defense...he is easily the best Frenchman to have ever played the game and he had jheri curl to die for. I wonder why Soul Glo never had him become their spokesman?

Andy, I know, when I saw that I thought of you.

In re: Rowand's production

1) Rowand's production would not have even been "made up for" by Rowand this year. He will never match the numbers he had last year. (Just guessing; but willing to bet.)

2) The difference between his numbers last year and that of the RF platoon, if the players live up to their ability, will not be that great. Jenkins/Werth may even produce more runs than ARow07.

3) The Phils OF defense, for what that's worth, will be better with Vic/platoon replacing Rowand/Vic.

4) We do not need to worry about replacing Rowand's 2007 production nearly as much as worrying about replacing the probable production of the 2008 bullpen.

(Besides, according to the kool-aid, Feliz has a lot more "pop" than the 2007 infield Cerebrus.)

Snelling struck out and took first on the past ball, btw.

Church had 19 Win Shares last year in 470 ABs.
Shane had 12 in 456.

Victorino would be the 3rd OFer until Alou came back, then he'd be on the bench.

I'm not trying dwell into the Phillies troubles, but Brian Fuentes is not as good as advertised. Mind you, yes he would be an upgrade to what you have now and certainly last year, but the man was demoted from closer role because he was prone to the long ball. I was dumbfounded on how he made last year's all star team instead of Maine when his record was somewhat mediocre. The Philly brass would not be so stupid as to trading Shane, who is under control, for a one year rental who is really not all that great, but Gillick does have that signature reputation for going after those 1 year rentals.

Andy: Vic Darensbourg is this season's Antonio Alfonseca.

Yes, Rowand's production does need to be replaced if you plan on the team having similar success as last year.

He had 23 Win Shares last year. Only 15 OFers in the majors had 23 or more. There is no way a Jenkins/Werth platoon comes close to 23.

The "trade Vic for pitching" idea is bizarre for 2 reasons:

#1. In RF, Vic was near the bottom of the league in overall value. In CF, he's in the top 5. In other words, even if he doesn't improve at all, he's way better this season because of the position switch (defense is far, far more important than in RF and he offers better offense than most CFers.)

#2. The Phillies pitching problems could've been solved by signing Lohse and a couple of the 30 or so FA relievers who were available this offseason. This was not done. To now trade one of your starting position players to try to fill those needs would be height of ass-backwards thinking.

Frankly, Gillick has made his bed and now must lie in it. I don't think they have enough pitching to make the playoffs. Maybe something can be done in-season to change that.

Rico: Even Rowand himself won't come close to 23.

clout does that mean he will be sprouting an extra digit on each finger?

Let's be frank, we stink so far. I'd trade Victorino just to shake their sh*t up. If you can get a capable OF and a SP you have to consider it. Kendrick had another whack start against some Double-A hacks.

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