Beerleaguer: Readers pessimistic about playoff return

The results of our community poll are in and the always popular “88 wins” is indeed where the average reader sees the Phillies finishing the season. Unfortunately, most readers believed they would not have enough to return to the post-season. Roughly 60 readers were polled, with 102 and 80 being the highest and lowest win totals issued. (Radio: Phillies trivia and discussion this morning on WEEU. Call 1-800-323-8800 to participate.)

Comments

[E]

color me shocked

[Lake Fred]

I was out of the computer loop the last four days, so I missed out on predivting, but I feel like "85" is the number of wins. I see the Phils struggling to be above .500 all year. .500 = 81 wins. I suspect that in 4 of the six months of the season, they'll play one game over .500. That's where they'll end up at 85 wins.

What gnaws at me is that the Phils should play .500 ball against everybody, then maul patsy teams like the gNats, Fish, Pirates, Giants, etc. Win consistently against those teams and 95 wins would not be unreasonable, except....it won't happen!

[Tim from Williamsport]

I'd say 90+ wins if they didn't have that blackhole known as the 3-5 starters in the rotation. Not to mention the bullpen is going to see alot of pitchers going on the DL I think. This team is indeed a sinking ship. Such a shame with the monster hitting the lineup.

[clout]

kdon: Brian Mazone? ROTFLMAO!!!!!

[bay_area_phan]

I missed my chance to predict a darkhorse. I don't know how dark any of these are, but I'm picking the Mariners & Padres in the Western divisions & the Brewers for the NL WC. I could also see the A's and Nationals being far better than anyone expects, though neither will make the playoffs.

The biggest flops: Arizona, Colorado, Cleveland, Anaheim, and the Phillies.

[Andy]

clout - it's even more fun if you fall off your chair first - FOMCROTFLMAO!!!!!

Jason - saw you're unrealistic appraisal of the Jays. I don't think they have the hitting to knock off the likes of the Sox. Boston continues to be mean, with good veterans and an unbelievable bevy of strong kids in the farm system. Tampa Bay will be fun to watch, though. I love the rotation they look to develop over the next 2 - 5 years.

Since it's opening day, here's my opening day 2008 official joke:

Helms and Eaton walk into a bar...

the concussions put them on the 60 day DL and the Phils win the division.

(You could try that with Giles, Gillick and Amaro, too.)

[Andy]

Oh, yeah, last thing: shout out to our boys, the Gnats for starting off Atlanta like they finished the Mets. Good job, guys.

Now...um, it's time to revert to your career norms.

[Mike H.]

Don't laugh, but do you have a standard deviation on your 60 predictions? This year seems all over the place.

[CY]

My Preditions:
NL
East - Mets
West - DBacks
Central - Brewers
Wild Card - Phillies (89)

AL
East - Sox
West - Seattle
Central - Detroit
WC - Cleveland

[J. Weitzel]

Andy: That's what this time of year is about: unrealistic fantasy. Since I don't see the Phillies getting it done, I'm channeling my optimism onto another team, one with no baring on the NL East of Phillies. Go Jays Go.

[DPatrone]

Phans~

Per MLBTraderumors.com:

I'm in a prognosticating mood; here are three July trade deadline predictions.

Phillies acquire Joe Blanton for Carlos Carrasco and Adrian Cardenas. Pat Gillick's last hurrah.

Now phans, I'll believe it only if it happens of course. Since PG didn't complete the puzzle in the off-season once again, I have lots of doubts that he'll be able to pull off a major trade during the season. I don't think he really cares, since he's stepping down as GM. There were obviously chances to do something over the weekend but we know the story. He has shown that he tinkers rather than thinks big ("little puddles" rather than "big splashes").

But really, they'll be out of contention by then IMO so a major trade at the deadline won't matter. Help needs to be brought in sooner rather than later. I also believe that's too much to give up for Blanton.

[Malcolm]

On PN I have these predictions:

NL East - Mets
NL Central - Cubs
NL West - Dodgers
NL Wild Card - Braves

AL East - Yankees
AL Central - Indians
AL West - Mariners
AL Wild Card - Tigers

NL - Mets d. Cubs, Braves d. Dodgers, Braves d. Mets
AL - Yankees d. Tigers, Indians d. Mariners, Yankees d. Indians
WS - Yankees d. Braves

Why the hell am I going with the Braves? I guess it's a Wild Card thing.

[clout]

Predicting baseball is always a longshot because no one can predict injuries. But if there's anything I feel close to certain about, it's that the Wild Card will come from the NL Weat.

[clout]

Or maybe even the NL West.

[Mike H.]

Personally, I like the Omaha Barnstormers in the NL Corn division.

[Andy]

Jason - I'm doing the same, but, as you might guess, with the Rays. Love the young pitching.

[bay_area_phan]

Believe it or not, Cholly's got Feliz hitting 6th:

Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Feliz
Werth
Ruiz
Myers

My tummy tells me we're looking at a rainout.

[Andy]

Gotta watch out for those Weatie teams, they eat the breakfast of champions.

[Andy]

While the teams in the East, mainly, lap up the swill of despair.

[Andy]

b-a-p:
If there is no rainout, my over under on Werth leading off innings - 3.

[jobbers]

Should he have gone for Jenkins over Werth even though the Nats have a lefty pitching. Werth has done nothing in ST, Jenkins has been hot the last week or so

[clout]

Batting Feliz ahead of Werth is idiotic. Typical.

[Andy]

jobbers - Werth has slightly better speed, which is a good thing, since he'll be leading off so many innings.

[bay_area_phan]

jobbers: No. Jenkins has been hot because he hasn't had to face any left-handers. Jenkins can't hit lefties; Werth can't hit right-handers. Unless someone gets injured, Cholly should play this as a strict platoon all year long. The only way I would ever deviate from that would be if Werth is hot & Jenkins is cold -- in which case I might give Werth some starts against right-handers. I would never start Jenkins against a left-hander.

[Alby]

My question, or perhaps a better over/under wager concerning Feliz: How many GIDP will it take before Cholly realizes that 6th is not where Feliz belongs?

[Sophist]

Alby - re: hitting 6th - with the spring Ruiz had, I wonder what the chances are that we see him hitting 6th at some point this season. Or is a catcher in the 6th spot just unheard of?

[Morty]

If everyone stays healthy, the Mets have to be the favorite, but I don't see that happening.

[Morty]

BTW, nice to see some Afro-beat creeping into your music, JW.

[Zach Morris]

Last minute mlb.tv help, anyone?
I've had the service for the last two seasons, but now, when I click the link for a feed, nothing happens. The link seems to be a javascript pop-up thing, and I have javascript enabled and pop-up blocker turned off. Nevertheless, I can't get the window to pop up in firefox or IE.
Can any tech dudes help me out?

[Zach Morris]

Follow up -- this is an example link. Glad I tried to take care of this before game time.
javascript:void(playMedia2({w_id:'637293',w:'reflector:28460',pid:'mlb_lg',gid:'2008/03/31/kcamlb-detmlb-1',fid:'mlb_lg400',cid:'mlb',v:'2'}))

[Steve Jeltz]

Personally, I'd bat Jenkins/Werth 6th, Chooch 7th, and Feliz 8th.

But I'm still convinced the Phils ordered a whole bunch of pre-printed lineup cards a couple years ago with the catcher in the 8th spot and their budget restricts them from ordering new ones and moving the catcher up. That seems like the most logical explanation to me.

[JZ]

Why I love the beerleaguer... all this chatter about GIDP and then, well, what we all know:

Feliz grounded into a double play, shortstop C.Guzman to second baseman Belliard to first baseman N.Johnson, Burrell out.

Ha! Fire Cholly!*

*Don't fire Cholly.

[Slocs]

Huge

[Ken]

Hey. I am a long time lurker here on this blog. But I can't help myself.

I found a very good analysis of the Nationals on http://www.ballssticksstuff.com/

Click, or copy and paste, http://www.ballssticksstuff.com/2008/03/advancing-the-w.html, go to the second post by Squonk64, and get a decent laugh. Not a great one. But I must admit, comparing his analysis of 'The Nats' to the blogger's, he seems to know his stuff.

And as he said near the end, unless you understand both mascosts (Teddy for Washington, the Phanatic for the Phillies) you might not get the joke. But I got a chuckle out of it.