Beerleaguer: Shallow pitching depth will doom Phils

The key to the Phillies' season isn'€™t the pitching staff as it sets up today. It's the last line of defense once those critical pieces fall off the board.

The Phillies spent spring training sorting out their pitching, auditioning about two-dozen candidates to fill two holes in the 'pen and rotation. Until Friday, the team decided only 10 nominees warranted jobs in the Major Leagues. The manager remains mostly noncommittal on his fifth starter, while the club bolstered the bullpen by acquiring a Double-A player off waivers.

Under normal circumstances, it isn'€™t a big deal. Many teams face questions and take chances around the edges. But the Phillies aren'€™t a normal team. The Phils were forced to use 28 pitchers last season, setting a franchise record. When it comes to pitching, they can't seem to find the answers.

All of the same problems threaten them again in 2008. They face doubt in the back of the bullpen, where Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson ended the season hurt, while Tom Gordon, age 40, will be asked to pitch through a torn labrum. In the rotation, there’s general concern 3-through-5 (though I'€™m not worried about Jamie Moyer) while the club’s best pitcher, Cole Hamels, has never been healthy for an entire season.

Smooth sailing is highly unlikely, even assuming these pitchers pitch like the Phillies want them to pitch. Lidge, who will return April 5 at the earliest, lost the closer job the last two seasons in Houston, and it wasn't due to injury. Kyle Kendrick, not blessed with great stuff, is now a familiar foe to opposing hitters. J.D. Durbin and John Ennis were better options than Adam Eaton at the end of the season.

But we know all that. Yet somehow, they captured the division. It took out-of-their-mind, over-their-head hitting to do so. Career years abounded, and that will be the difference between the 2007 version and the one that will finish 85-77, out of the playoffs and second to the Mets in a watered-down, aging NL East. It will resemble '06 more closely than '07. One can only ask so much from these gutsy, resilient players, but it never gets old asking for the little extras from ownership to fortify this excellent nucleus with championship-caliber support.

Community predictions: Readers are encouraged to continue sharing their thoughts on the 2008 season. Results will be posted later today.

Comments

[GM-Carson]

I know many of us hate Pat Gillick and the front office, but I honestly can't believe they're heading into the season with that cast of misfits as the pitching staff. It's a slap in the face to the good guys like Utley, Rollins, Howards and company. All this offense needs is mediocre pitching, yet Gillick and his lapdog Amaro have assembled one of the worst staffs in all of baseball.

[a fan]

world

[a fan]

series

[a fan]

champions

[a fan]

goosebumps.

[king myno]

Carson,

The word "assembled" seems to imply that they carefully constructed it with skill and expertise. I'd say instead that they "used salary limitations as an excuse to hurl a bunch of crap at the wall and see which parts would stick," but I've never been into the whole brevity thing.

[curt]

There will be days we miss Jose Mesa.

[kdon]

Well put Jason.

It's amazing, but if someone had told you at the end of last season that Adam Eaton would be the 5th starter, *after a ST where he had a 7.11 ERA and gave up 30 hits in 17 IP*, you would have said the offseason was a disaster.

Don't forget, it was almost universally believed that the Phils would dump Eaton, or try to trade him, or something, and he is still here. It's the biggest embarrasment on the roster, followed by Lahey and Helms in a distant tie for second.

Having Eaton as the 5th starter is an insult to the rest of the team.

[BENTZ]

Third place in the NL East - 84 wins on the season. Just not enough pitching. Atlanta pulls it out over the Mets in the end with around 91 wins - I'll give the Mets 89. Dodgers win the wild card in a close race over Colorado and the Mets. Brewers and Phillies 6-8 games out of the wild card. Arizona wins the West and the Cubs the Central. Arizona beats Atlanta and Chicago beats LA in the playoffs before the D'backs beat the Cubs in a 6-game set in the LCS. Arizona loses the World Series to Cleveland in 7 games.

[curt]

One day during the dog days the Cubs will score 30 runs against Happ--Condrey--new guy--new guy--new guy--Madson--Gordon.

[J. Weitzel]

Under 90 wins will be enough to get it done in the NL East, like last year. An 88-win Mets team could be enough for a playoff berth.

[kdon]

And here is a question for the bullpen/rotation argument.

If the Phillies were to sign Kuroda (or another #3 level starter) today, what would you do: move Myers to the pen or kick Eaton out of the rotation?

I know my answer.

[kdon]

Final points of anger.

1) The Phillies are about to enter the season with the best offense in the NL, and one of the top 1-2 starter combinations.

2) The rest of the team, the rotation 3-5, and the pen, are some of the worst in the NL

3) Ed Wade is responsible for almost all of point 1

4) Pat Gillick is responsible for almost all of point 2

[don schell]

kdon
Ownership may be responsible for point 4.

[J. PETERSON]

Going over some of the opening day pitching assignments posted on MLB.com. Happened to notice two opening day starters, Odalis Perez (Nats) and Livan Hernandez (Twins), the Phillies gave a pass on when they (the Phillies) had the chance to bring them to spring training for a look see. Couldn't have hurt to see how well these vets matched up against Eaton. Instead, we have our hopes pinned on reclamation project Kris Benson. Can't help buy feel this is going to be a long, long, very long, season.

[curt]

As a P.R. gimmick, management signs Julio Franco out of the Mexican League so he can retire as a Phillie, and he leads the team in hitting in Sept.

[Tim in DC]

Kdon

To your Kurdora-Myers question, I'd prefer to leave Myers in the rotation. The Phils need the quality innings.

[Tartan69]

kdon - I never really thought of Ed Wade that way. Very good point.

I'll lay money that Carrasco is in the rotation before the end of the season.

[brio]

Until ownership changes hands or changes its collective minds, the Phillies will never win it all. They simply must pay top dollar for top pitchers or else the best offense in modern history will not be rewarded with a ring. We saw it w/ the Eagles' strong defense years ago that was never complemented by a strong offense. What top-flight pitchers will be FAs after this season?

[curt]

After a 5-0 start with the Iron Pigs, the Real Deal is recalled to replace the Bad Deal, who is placed on the 120 day DL.

[J. Marz]

Just wanted to let you know that inside sources have the phillies trading for Robinson Tejada for future considerations and player to be named later. The brass believes he could fill in nicely as the 5th starter for the month of April until Benson is ready. Then can move into the long man role

[J. Weitzel]

It wouldn't surprise me if that Robinson Tejeda rumor proved to be true. He's out of options in Texas. It's something I've thought about ever since I read he was on the bubble.

[curt]

After Robinson Tejeda is acquired for Victorino and Carrasco, Gillick reveals to frustrated fans that the Phils have made the highest $$ offer to 45 different FA SPs since CBP opened, with only Eaton taking the cash.

[kdon]

"We saw it w/ the Eagles' strong defense years ago that was never complemented by a strong offense."

Brio,

Nice comparison there. You didn't happen to read Phil Sheridan in the Inquirer today, did you?

[kdon]

Tejeda is probably better than Eaton, but not better than the current AAA crowd that could fill in now.

Last two seasons:

169 IP, 193 H, 92 BB, 109 K, 27 HR

Call me crazy, but I like to stay away from pitchers who give up lots of hits, have no command, don't strike anyone out, and are prone to the long ball.

[curt]

With a line like that, the man was born to wear the red pinstripes.

[Brad]

This is my first post here but love reading this blog. Figured I'd throw in my predictions. Completely agree with kdon's earlier post, especially points 1 and 2 about the one of the best lineups and 1-2 at top, and of the worst 3-5. For that reason, I would predict 86 wins for this team. I can see that improving if they make a mid season trade or bring up a minor leaguer and they get lucky like they did last year.

I see the Mets winning the East with 91. Not as high on Braves as most, see them with 81-82.

Wild card will go to a team out West. I am leaning towards Padres or Dodgers, whichever does not win division.

[Iceman]

Haven't been back since the playoff series -- needed a Phillies detox. With this pitching staff, I might need another 6-month break.

Since that's not going to happen, mark me down for 85 wins, missing the playoffs. They hang around until the last two weeks and fade thanks to an unreliable bullpen...in other words, after last year, back to reality.

Also, I just wanted to say that I'm personally offended as a fan that this is the pitching staff we're bringing to Opening Day one year after a division championship and a failed playoff run. Absolutely no effort was made to make the bullpen better, and the fact that Adam Eaton is still our fifth starter after showing nothing promising in Spring Training is an insult to the team, as well as to the fans. I wonder if everyday players even speak to the guy.

[Dave X]

Mets : 92-70
Phils : 89-74 (WC, tiebreaker won)
Braves : 88-74
Nats : 74-88
Marlins : 65-97

NL Central : Cubs
NL West : Dodgers

AL East : Yankees
AL Central : Indians
AL West : Mariners

[AWH the RBP]

don schell:
"Ownership may be responsible for point 4"?

"may be"? I suggest the following edit:

Ownership IS responsible for point 4.

[MPN]

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-dodrep30mar30,1,2967815.story

LA Times is reporting that the Dodgers may still be interested in Helms, or possibly Eric Hinske. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

[Dull]

The key variable is when Eaton is exorcised from the 25 man roster. If he had been canned by opening day then they would have gone a J-Roll 100-62 and win the division. But Gillick said NO. If they get rid of him by mid May then a 90-62 record is likely and a wild card berth behind the Braves. If Eaton lingers and it is later into the dog days of summer before he is DL'd then no playoffs and an 83-79 record is likely as they fight for .500 most of the season. Let's hope Eaton's finger,back, shoulder or leg give out ASAP! Certainly Chad Durbin and Andrew Carpenter Right Now! are more effective than Eaton will ever be as a 5th starter.

[bay_area_phan]

It's funny that people should bring up Tejeda because that's who kept coming to mind as I was watching Kyle Kendrick's success last year. Much like Kendrick, Tejeda was a guy who came out of nowhere to have a solid rookie season for us, after mostly being unimpressive in the minor leagues. And I distinctly remember having the exact same feeling about Tejeda's rookie season as I had about Kendrick's: that we had just witnessed his career year & he would go on to be a below average major league starter.

Although Tejeda was actually worse than Eaton last year, he IS capable of giving you about 6 to 8 good weeks, if you catch him on an uptick (which is more than can be said for Eaton). Problem is, when he crashes, he crashes spectacularly. Were it not for the fact that Gillick already traded him away once, Tejeda would fit the profile of the kind of pitcher Gillick loves to target: a hard thrower with no command, who could potentially turn the corner some day, but has shown absolutely no sign that it will happen at any point in the near future.

[drake]

i think we should all find e-mail addresses for gillick, amaro, and arbuckle and flood their e-mail boxes with the story about the astros eating 6.5 mil by releasing woody williams every time adam eaton takes the mound.

[kdon]

bap, I agree on the Kendrick/Tejeda comparisons. It's odd that while the latter was flipped for spare parts (Delluci) the former is being counted on to play a major role in the rotation.

[Slocs]

drake: EXACTLY.

Kline was released so even if we get him, we can't dump Helms.

Lets just hope Happ or someone gets off to a fast start in AAA.

[brio]

kdon:
yep, but you could also make a case for the Flyers lack of commitment to get a solid goaltender and the Sixers a dominant center.

[MG]

Why does anyone assume the Phils would outright release Eaton this year with over $16M on this contract? No team in MLB would do this.

It is annoying though that the Phils automatically handled him a job in the rotation given his horrendous performance last year and this spring training.

That said, what it is incredibly frustrating for me is to watch the Phils refuse to sign any additional help for the bullpen or that they invested in Benson in lieu of Lohse just because Benson has a much cheaper price tag if he doesn't work out.

I am almost convinced this season is going to play out like 2006 in that if the Phils even had average starting pitching in the 4/5 slots, they would be a pretty sure bet to make the playoffs.

[MG]

Two reasons why the Mets win the division:

- Maine and Perez in the 3/4 slot is much better than anything the Phils and Braves are going to throw out their respectively in their rotations.

- Mets have the likes of Smith (a guy I really like) and Wise to send out in the 6th/7th. The Phils have a pitcher claimed out of AA, Condrey, and Durbin.

[wally]

Maine will probably be in the 2 slot by the end of the year, and he's really not all that much worse than most number 1s.

[Bob]

Put me down for 85 wins. Too many things have to go right for the Phils to make the playoffs this season. Every game with the Mets should be a wrenching bloodbath, and the combination of the Mets' motivation to avenge last year plus Santana will tip the balance to the Mets this time around. Atlanta will also stick around to add to the Phils' problems at least in the first half of the season.

Sorry to be pessimistic. I like CJ's view a lot better and hope he's nailed it.

[Tim from Williamsport]

I say they win between 83-85 wins and finish with no playoffs. It should be the tenth wake up call for management to pony up some cash and get some GOOD pitching before the unbelieveable hitting lineup they have right now goes south. Unfortunately after Gillick leaves Amaro will pop a few more holes into this sinking ship known as my beloved Phillies.