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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Comments

JW~

I agree with your assessment but don't think Fabio makes it. Just not good enough at the moment.

Andy~ From the previous thread, if Boras advises Loshe to do anything other than to sign with the Phils he should be shot. He's lost A-Rod, Sheffield, and Rogers as clients because of poor advice. ANd seriously what has he done for Lohse?

Good stuff Jason, and I agree with almost everything.

I would add one question (though this is more for the season than Spring Training): Is Kyle Kendrick for real?

And how about Burrell already being in camp? If people want to question his fielding or batting approach that's fine, but I hope we stop questioning his character. The only reason this guy is not loved by Philadelphians (he never wants to sit, always plays through injuries, gives the proverbial %110, never complains) is because he was the #1 overall pick and the contract.

But as Alby (I think?) showed a few days ago, Burrell has actually been an above average #1 overall pick, and me, clout, and others have presented pretty good evidence that Burrell has lived up to the that contract.

In '08, hopefully we can stop bitching about what he can't do and enjoy another productive season from the bug guy.

bug guy = big guy...dammit, that does read funny though.

Their need for a second left-hander, especially since Romero won't be used as a true loogy, and the fact that, frankly, Castro has pitched enough in the minors, makes me think they will decide to go for it. Get him into a bullpen rhythm early and see what happens. If it fails, option him down.

Castro can pitch a couple innings for them, too.

One big question will be how seriously the Phillies, and Charlie in particular, take Spring Training this year. The Phillies have gotten off to slow starts every year under CM and I believe a large part of the reason is that he doesn't push the players enough in ST. He lets the veterans set their own pace and that's not good enough. Many starting position players do not get enough quality ABs, some pitchers and position players are not in shape, and ST becomes more like a big tryout for fringe players. I hope I do not hear another "We'll be ready when the games count" mantra again this ST.
I'm hoping the taste of the playoffs last season has the team focused right from day one of ST.
Get the key players enough quality work (not overwork), get the pitcher's roles clearly defined, get the lineups worked out, and don't worry so much about who the 25th roster spot goes to. That will work itself out.

kdon -
I have to admit that pre-beerleaguer I was in the "trade-the-bug-guy" camp. I have reformed, however, and agree with you.

I do wonder, however, if he's in Florida early to scout out the hottest local bars.

Patrone: I was kinda joking around; but you sorta made my point. Boras's old set of tactics do not seem to be working out for his clients the way they used to.

Happy days are here again.

Jason - one point of disagreement. I think Boston will pay us the $25 grand to get Holdzkom back.

George is back. Good post, as usual.

Boston wouldn't have a place for him on their roster.

Another spring training question: Is there any real competition between Coste and Jamarillo, or does Coste have the backup catcher spot nailed down? I would not be surprised if Jamarillo wins the spot and Coste is packaged in the eventual deal to get Helms out of town.

Maybe I need to read up on Rule 5 rules; I thought that after they bought him back they could stash him at AAA where he was before. I thought it was just the drafting teams that need to keep the guy on their rosters.

Dantheman: You'll see Jaramillo only if Coste struggles badly or gets hurt during the season. And I don't think they can afford to deal away catching, even a backup like Coste. Finding a team that would want both Helms and Coste is also unlikely.

Finding a team that would want both Helms and anyone is unlikely.

Andy: I just don't think the defending champs would care enough to create space for the 18th player selected in the Rule 5 draft, who was reportedly let go for character issues.

I Fabio can throw strikes, then he should make the squad as the loogy...key point being STRIKES

It is a little amusing that Burrell is derided most of all for signing his name to a massive contract. Like any of you would turn down the money he was offered. Like someone expected him to say, "You know, that's a lot of money to put on one guy... especially with a no trade clause... let's try something else."

And, of course, the numbers support the guy's been a pretty good player anyway.

I look forward to debating lots of stuff this preseason... hopefully it won't be how we can dump Pat Burrell.

Jason, I hope so. It would be great to have a plus fastball available in Allentown.

If Pat was more consistent, then our debates would be softened. He is hot or cold.

J - I think another question is can Victorino physically last an entire year in the outfield? And, if not, can Jayson Werth re-create the incredible finish that he enjoyed towards the end of last season?

Also, as I posted on the previous day's post, will the Phillies address the LOOGY situation for real in the next month? Or will we be forced to go into '08 shorthanded (Fabio Castro, Zags, etc. competing for the spot) again like last year??

Reed: As are most players. Consistency is a myth in baseball. Perhaps Burrell has shown a tendency to more prolonged hot streaks or slumps, but the baseball season is 162 games for a reason. Those things even out.

Diggtydave: No question. I have doubts about Vic also. We'll find out by September. These are strictly questions that will need to be answered by the time they break camp.

so despite the reports in the paper this morning, does anyone else think the Mets' signing of Armas, Jr. portends well for the Phillies to sign Lohse and/or Benson?

who the hell else has interest?

CJ: I don't buy that consistency is a myth. It's true that the long season does usually even out the hot and cold streaks, but there is no question that Burrell, more than most players, is given to extended streaks of extraordinarily good or extraordinarily bad hitting.

Whether streakiness is a good thing or a bad thing is open to debate. Burrell is maddening when he's in one of his extended funks. But, on the other hand, when he's going well, he makes up for a lot of other guys who aren't going well. And, even when he's in a slump, Cholly always has the option of benching him for a few days.

Cube, I still can't believe Lohse is still not signed. Each day that goes by has to bode well for a team like the Phillies who (in my opinion, maybe secretly) still have desire in signing him but have the idea of an ideal contract and are not willing to bend to the demands of a Scott Boras.
I can't imagine a guy who is in the "prime" of his career (just turned 29) would spend a year on the pine in order to make a point. The Phils should go after Lohse if possible, as signing him would be the end of a very successful off-season in my opinion.

"Their need for a second left-hander...makes me think they will decide to go for it. Get him into a bullpen rhythm early and see what happens. If it fails, option him down."

Sounds familiar to last year.

"Castro has pitched enough in the minors"

I would disagree, however, with this: 288 IP for a 23 yo is not exactly ideal.

That's only 80 more innings than Cole, who barely pitched at all and is obviously in another class.

Myers pitched 489
Kendrick (who is a year younger!) 544
Hell, Carrasco has already thrown 430 innings.

I would either hope Zagurski is healthy, or sign Villone, before using Castro. I would love to see him in Ottawa for 30 starts and see what happens.

I'd like to see Rosario & Castro make the opening day roster because, among the guys who are competing for backend bullpen jobs, I think these 2 guys have the most upside. That said, I think the last 3 spots will go to Youman and the 2 Durbins -- all of whom will eventually be demoted or placed on the DL with phantom injuries.

...there is no question that Burrell, more than most players, is given to extended streaks of extraordinarily good or extraordinarily bad hitting.

I disagree; I think that's a very valid question. what criteria are you using to say that Burrell is less consistent than "most players"?

if it's just personal observations or impressions, then fine; statistics aren't everything. but that clearly means that there is a question about your conclusion.

to expand on my point, it's obvious that Burrell was streaky in 2007. but look at his monthly OPS in 2006:
1.013 / .884 / .826 / .858 / .859 / .888

or in 2005:
.955 / .886 / .862 / .855 / .952 / .861

that looks pretty damn consistent to me.

kdon:

You ask, in my opinion, perhaps the most important question for the Phils' chances this year: "Is Kyle Kendrick for real?"
/morty

To me, if Mathieson is healthy he needs to be seriously considered for a bullpen role. The kid throws heat and can strike people out. Most teams can use a guy like that, especially one with a bullpen as bad as ours.

BAP:

Agreed about Rosario, although I might take JD Durbin over Castro initially since Castro still has options.
/morty

"Boras's old set of tactics do not seem to be working out for his clients the way they used to."

Andruw Jones got a pretty good deal, considering his 2007 season.

Kdon: Fabio is someone I've been thinking about a lot lately, and if you catch me on the right day, I would agree he needs to spend the season in Allentown. I see your point on the lack of innings, but I also see someone who's been hovering around the majors for the last two. There's something to be said about a healthy, live-armed left-hander, especially one this close to the majors, playing for a team that could really use another lefty in the pen. If he throws strikes in spring, there's no way they won't keep him. I'm pulling for him.

CJ: Great post on Burrell.

kdon: Good point on Fabio. The Rule 5 year, as it often does, messed up his development. I'd like to see him pitch some AAA innings, unless he shows in ST that his command has improved. By the way, are the mussels in Brussels as good as advertised?

Jack: I hope they intend to bring Mathieson along more slowly. There's a timetable for rehabbing these elbow surgeries, and every pitcher who thinks he feels so good he can speed it up winds up with setbacks. Considering Mathieson already needed follow-up surgery to reposition a nerve -- a sign of continuing post-op pain -- I'd prefer not to put him under major league pressure this season. Groom him for the bullpen and let him come back to Philly in '09, when we'll have an opening for an 8th-inning pitcher.

Random small sample size things to think about :
Throughout his minor league career (133 IP), Zagurski has been worse against left-handers than right-handers.

Last season, left-handers had a .313 OPS vs Castro. Of course, this was with a tiny BABIP. That was only in 20 PA, though :)

Random, small-sample size thouhts : Castro's a much better bet now (and going forward) than Zagurski to provide major leauge value as a LH reliever. If you want a strict LOOGY, then he could probably fufill that role, as in the minors LH had a sub-.600 OPS against him. The problem is (as the Phils realize) strict LOOGYs are pretty much a waste of a roster space.

Alby: Agree on Mathieson.

Thank God for Beerleaguer. Phils phans are certainly lucky to have such a resource.

Baseball America listed its Philly top prospect list.

Five-Star Prospects
None
Four-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
2. Joe Savery, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
3. Adrian Cardenas, 2B
4. Josh Outman, LHP
5. Kyle Drabek, RHP
6. Travis D'Arnaud, C
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Jason Donald, SS
9. Dominic Brown, OF
Two-Star Prospects
10. Drew Carpenter, RHP
11. Travis Mattair, 3B

stjoehawk
I seem to remember Jones initially asking for more than just two years. Never the less, my point was, actually, that several of Boras' bigger guys kinda dumped him. I'm sure that there will always be players who want his swagger, and always teams interested in the players he represents. But, given Lohse's initial requests (as reported) his representation does not seem to be doing much for Lohse right now.

I meant Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America was discussed weeks ago.

Ae: Ok, it's a personal observation.

The monthly OPS does not disprove the observation because it would be highly unusual for Burrell's hot & cold swings to perfectly coincide with the beginning & end of a calendar month. Besides, when Burrell's going poorly, Cholly often takes him out of the lineup for days at a time.

If they ever devised a statistic to capture streakiness, I have no doubt that Burrell would be near the top of the list. Again, I'm not at all sure whether that's a bad thing or a good thing. And, to clear up any ambiguity, I'm a big Burrell fan, & a firm believer that the Phillies should resign him.

bap - sure, I'll concede that monthly OPS doesn't prove anything. although--no offense--I don't think your personal observations really prove anything either.

Billy Mac and all,
what happened to D'Arby Myers?

I see Castro as Romero Jr. He'll be the guy when they need an early LOOGY who can give them a little bit more than that (if needed) or when JC is unavailable. I predict he breaks camp and is at CBP on March 31.

I think Jaramillo's exclusion from any prospect lists says all you need to know about his chances vs. Coste.

ae: No argument here. My personal observations don't prove squat.

D'Arby injured(broke?) his wrist last year. Should be back for the start of this season.

"Never the less, my point was, actually, that several of Boras' bigger guys kinda dumped him."

I'm not positive if A-Rod did get rid of Boras. For example, there's an article from Variety.com (dated 12/17/2007) talking about his new agent (Guy Oseary) which says that Boras is A-Rod's former agent.

However, on 12/18, there are some articles (including one on MLB.com) saying that while A-Rod did hire Oseary "to handle his ventures outside of baseball", Boras was still his agent (which was confirmed by the MLBPA).

I can't seem to find anything after that to provide any additional information.

However, I did see that Jacoby Ellsbury signed with Boras during the off-season, so players aren't too put off by his off-season performance this year.

It could be argued that Andruw's contract is further evidence of Boras' declining ability to get what he wants. Granted, his performance last season probably had more to do with the short contract from LA, and he did get a high annual figure. And Boras has done this before with high-end clients who couldn't get the very long contracts Boras prefers. But it's a big risk, and given the difficulty of putting up gaudy stats at Chavez Ravine, it's no sure thing that Jones will earn over 5 years what Boras originally asked for over that period.

hawk/Alby:
Actually, my statements are probably fueled as much by my sentiments regarding Boras as they are facts. And the fact that he is so high profile means that we notice when someone "dumps" him. I'm sure other agents lose clients, too. So, hmmmm...how about: I sure hope that Lohse's long waiting period indicates that a lot of people are getting tired of the Boras act.

I'm always rooting for the Model Dictator, but I doubt Castro makes the club as a reliever. I'm picking Vic Darensbourg as a dark horse candidate to get one of the bullpen spots. JD Durbin in relief scares me, JD Durbin pitching period scares me. I still think he could contribute, but he's way too rough around the edges yet. I can't see the Phils going with only 11 pitchers, so bye-bye Snelling.

On Burrell:
I do think that using game logs you might statistically tease out some of the streaks that we have observed. For instance -

In 2007
until May 20 Burrell hit .251 getting a HR every 21 PA. From May 21 to July 1, he hit .126 with a HR every 43.5 PA. From July 1 to August 4, he hit .450 with a HR every 9 PA.

But we knew that...

In 2006, until 5/12, he hit .298 with a HR every 11; from 5/13 to 7/2, he hit .216, but with a HR every 15 PA. Then he has couple decent weeks (.303, 19), before going .221, 35 from 7/30 to 9/23.

In 2005, we also know that he raked pretty much all year. If all his years were like 2005...(add in your own appreciative sentence)

In 2004, up to 5/20 he hit .328 with a HR every 15PA. Then he went cold and til June 26, he hit .194 going 33 ABs between HRs. Then he had, again, a short hot streak lasting to 7/9 where he hit .313 with a HR every 15.7 AB. Then from 7/9 til 9/27, he hit .192 but with a HR every 17 PAs or so.

So, yeah, based on that, I'd say he's pretty streaky. There are a few caveats, however:

One is that no matter what else happens, he gets his walks. So while his BA and SLG drop during his downturns, his OBP moves downward a lot slower.

Two, sometimes his hits drop off but his HRs don't.

Three, even though there seems to be a pattern of a quick start (up to, like, mid-May), watching Burrell's streaks is only a descriptive (not predictive) process. I would not advise pulling him from the line-up from May 20 to June 20 just because he's had some bad streaks in that time period.

Four, it is good to have someone capable of cranking it up sometimes - who suddenly gets hot and mashes people. Overall, he's a keeper and I'm a convert. Hope they're able to sign him for a couple more years after this one. And I'm looking forward to a repeat of his 2005 numbers.

Carson -
I don't know what to say...you picked my guy!

We should have some kinda fantasy league where we can't pick the starting 8, top 2 starters or top 3 bullpen guys. We can name guys that we think we may get in trades, call up or bench players to all pick a team which excludes the good parts of our team. No trades, nothing. And we just look at some key statistics and add everything up at the end of the year. Kind of a value village fantasy league.

Andy: Good post. And I agree with the observation that Burrell's streakiness is "descriptive, not predictive." Obviously, you don't go pulling him from the lineup when May 20 rolls around, just because that's about the time that he has encountered past slumps. On the other hand, when he has gone a good 10 or 12 games without hitting, then I do think it's appropriate to get him out of the lineup for a few days. Although he may still draw walks and hit the occasional dinger, I'm not sure that's enough to make up for all the outs that he makes when things are going poorly.

I agree Castro did a premature internship in the bigs which hurt his development.

However one would hope it might have been offset with a more confident and poised pitcher whose adjustment period should be shorter or behind him.

Hopefully Moyer or Dubee can work some magic with the mental part of his game and get his control under CONTROL.

As YOGI said "Baseball is 90% mental. The other half is physical."

But then again we might have two Mitch Williams in the bullpen.

I see Ed Wade's going for Chacon.

I see that Livan has signed with the Twins. He was never really a good fit for us anyway.

JW - Great post. Cover more with a few hundred words than the Daily News/Inquirer seem to do with a week's worth of articles.

Still disagree about C. Durbin beginning the season in the bullpen. The Phils just don't really have another viable starter right now unless you think Eaton is really going to be healthy or that a guy like Blackley get put into that role.

I am pulling for Castro too. Everyone knows this bullpen needs another LOOGY with decent stuff. Still, think he would be better served starting everyday in Allentown (just go give him innings/work).

Besides Lidge, one of the overlooked questions has been Gordon. I wonder how much they are going to utilize him in spring training. I would give him work but touch him with feather gloves.

stjoehawk: So BA doesn't list Golson in the top 10 either. I see the so-called experts are finally catching up with me.

On Baseball America's early draft preview they have an article predicting that this year teams across baseball will ignore mlb's recommended slot bonuses in a much greater scale this year. While I would love to think that the Phils will change their ways & go after the best available player (not the most sign-able) player... The cynic in me says this could throw the phils even further in the back of the pack in player development through the draft. Figuring that the phils will likely stick to their thrifty player development tendencies while other teams bolster their farm talent by upping their willingness to sign top talent.

Its been said before, but it would be nice if they invested more in player development so that they didn’t have to sign the (insert your favorite lack of organizational depth signing: Rod Barajas, Adam Eaton, Wes Helm, etc…). I know we have a good amount of players on the current roster, but we typically don’t seem to fill holes well from within (w/ all due respect to Kendrick’s ’07 year)

I know the focus has been on the 2008 team & spring training, but I saw that on BA today & thought I would chime in.

Andy, good points on Burrell. I too am rooting for a return of the ’05 pat the bat.

JW, I don’t chime in often… but I love the site. Its great to have spot to read phils talk year round.

D'Arby Myers, hailed by SirArden as one of the great can't miss prospects drafted during the Gillick era, is a 20-year-old outfielder with 2 seasons experience.

He has yet to get a single at bat above the low-A NY-Penn league, where he will start his season this year.

His career SLG so far, is .352, which is hard to do. You really, really need to have no power whatsoever to have a career SLG of .352. Abraham Nunez, the official World Standard for total lack of power, had a career minor league SLG of .342. Oh, and Myers K/BB ratio isn't good either.

The chances of Myers ever being an everyday major league player are, in my opinion, remote.

"I would agree he needs to spend the season in Allentown. "

Good point, Jason. Spending the year in Ottawa wouldn't do him much good!

"By the way, are the mussels in Brussels as good as advertised?"

I had some a few years ago and they were great. Unfortunately, now they aren't in season so they are so-so and waaay overpriced. I'm sticking with the bier and frites for now.

"Castro's a much better bet now (and going forward) than Zagurski to provide major leauge value as a LH reliever."

I would disagree with this, or at least the "much" part.

Even though Zagurski has always be old for his level, and has only pitched 37 innings above A-Ball, his numbers are sick.

133 IP, 108 H, 167 K!, 49 BB, 2 HR (not a misprint!) 1.18 WHIP

Castro also put up good numbers at A ball, but I find it hard to believe he has "much" more of a live arm than someone with a career 11.38 K/9.

And Beerleaguer's favorite projection system, ZiPS, has Zagurski projected as a full run lower than Castro (4.00 to 5.02)

I agree with Jason: If Castro throws strikes in spring training, he'll make the team. Odds of that happening: Less than 50-50.

If J.D. Durbin makes the team, that means the team has serious problems. I'm an optimist. I don't think either he, Jaramillo, Snelling or Condrey makes it.

Helms will be traded for non-prospect minor league filler with the Phils eating half his salary.

D'Arby Myers is going into his age 19 season.

Clout: By process of elimination, do you believe Rosario has the inside track to a bullpen job?

clout - How about Helms to Yanks for CJ Henry?

I know nothing about Myers except what I see on his Cube page, but I see one very impressive season and one not very impressive season after a broken wrist.

I'll withhold judgment for now (though the plate discipline is a concern).

Helms will be traded for non-prospect minor league filler with the Phils eating half his salary.

Do we have to take filler? Isn't "future considerations" available?

Distirct:

Hey, my nephew turns 16 this year, should we sign him up?

I will also reserve judgment on Myers. As with all the HS tools guys the Phils have drafted, you usually need several years before you know for certain they're gonna flame out. And every once in a while one of them turns into Michael Bourn.

from the district: He turns 20 this year, but you're right, not until December.

Jason: I think there will be a surprise. Either an acquisition or a Rule 5 guy or one of the minor leaguers.

kdon - I was merely correcting clout who said that he was 20. But if your nephew can play third base, I certainly wouldn't object.

I agree with your anaylsis of Myers. 179 horrible ABS at age 18 in low A is no reason to write off a prospect, especially when that prospect had a pretty darn good age 17 season in the Rookie League the year before.

However, Clout is also not really wrong in saying that his chances are remote. After all, most prospects chances are remote.

kdon: He had fewer PAs in his "impressive" season, only 135. Last year, at a higher level, he had 190 PAs.

kdon: You stole my comeback line.

I agree that the past argument of "we should just cut Burrell" has been proven to be a stupid one. Many here (specifically clout, of course in his usual exasperating way) have done a good job of explaining why. But just bc our emotions took us too far in one direction, you can't completely ignore what spurred those emotions in the first place.

For example, CJ says:

"It is a little amusing that Burrell is derided most of all for signing his name to a massive contract."

That's simply wrong. While there will always be envy and that has certainly played a part in this saga, Burrell is derided mainly because he hasn't lived up to his potential and the expectations inherent in the Phillies offering him that contract. And those expectations were not unfair. Look at other players who in their age 23, 24, and 25 seasons put up OPS+s in the area of 106, 110, 146. Most of them didn't throw out 90 and 107 the next two years. Burrell was one of the greatest college hitters of all time, showed superstar potential in his ascension into the big leagues, performed at that level for a full year, signed a contract commeasurate with that expectation, and then proceeded to fall off of a cliff... probably costing the Phillies at least one playoff spot in the process.

He has bounced back to be a valuable player to any big league team(although he is tailor-made for CBP), but doing things like hitting .200 for two consecutive months can cause fans to become frustrated, and in the case of Philly irrationally so, especially when you've showed the tendency to fall apart in the past. As I've said, good arguments can be made about his free market value at this point relative to his contract(although Matt Stairs and the less than $2 mil he'll be making next year might have a counter-argument). Many have underrated things like his OBP and what his ability to take a lot of pitches does. But just because we've now recognized that value and accepted him for what he is, doesn't mean it isn't still disappointing that he didn't become the elite talent he was projected to be, and we gave him long term security to be… and July and August of last year showed he had the capability of being.

Can we trade Helms for Some Guy?

from the district: Do you think it's possible to tell the difference between those that have remote chances and those that have much better chances?

clout - yes I do. But it would be impossible for me to argue with the statement that his "chances are remote," because they are remote.

Both seasons are small sample sizes. The fact of the matter is that this kid hasn't played very much professional baseball. I certainly don't feel confident in judging him based on looking at the statistics gathered from 400 plate appearances when he was ages 17 and 18 respectively.

His age 17 season was encouraging, his age 18 season was really bad, but again under 200 plate appearances in both cases. So I would argue against writing him off just yet.

from the district: Not sure what "writing him off" means. In my opinion his performance in his first 2 years supports my conclusion that his chances are remote. There are a number of kids that age about whom I would not say that.

Do you think he's one of the Phillies Top 10 prospects?

Clout -

no I do not.

Brian G: No one is denying that Burrell's bad seasons didn't live up to expectations. But in the last three seasons, he's been a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy with and OPS+ over 120 each year.

Seems a little strange to still be hating a guy for what he did 5 years ago.

It's true, his low average has kept him from putting up monster #'s, but he still ranked third, sixth and fourth of all LF's in baseball in OPS the last three seasons.

from the district: Sounds like we agree.

sweet.

FWIW, Shane Victorino said during the Winter Tour that Travis Blackley was a tough pitcher. He faced him quite a bit in the PCL. Maybe Blackley will be the second lefty. I bet he's given a very hard look.

clout, and from the district:

Why don't you guys, along with Pedro Feliz, get a room together? Geez, talk about a lovefest.
/morty

MINNEAPOLIS - Right-hander Livan Hernandez and the Minnesota Twins agreed Tuesday to a $5 million, one-year contract that could earn him an additional $2 million in performance bonuses.

My main reservations with Blackley are that 1) both times he's been called up he's been smooshed; and 2) he has never really been a relief pitcher (at a professional level).

On the bright side, it would make bloodstripes truly ecstatic if Blackley stuck; and he seemes to hit pretty well - maybe even better than Feliz.

Sorry district, thought you were trying to defend Myers on age alone! I basically agree with your point, Myers has a remote chance to make the bigs like anyone in rookie ball, but he did do some good things in his rookie year.

I have no interest in continuing the argument however; I can picture clout in two months turning this into, "well kdon thought Myers would be a seven-time MVP."

My nephew is actually a LOOGY...well, not really, he starts but I think he tops out in the mid 70s.

There are a couple of toolsy tall guys on the team, though, so maybe the Phils are interested in them.

comparing Burrell to Stairs--a 40 year old platoon 1B/DH who was on a minor league deal as recently as '06?

guh?

"Not sure what "writing him off" means."

To "write off" in the business world means to admit that an investment will not ever make a return and to put it in the "losses" column of the ledger. Colloquially, it means to "give up." If this is how district meant it, then I agree that it is too early to "write off" Myers.

his chances are remote. There are a number of kids that age about whom I would not say that.

I'm curious clout, who are the 19 year olds in the Phils' system whose chances are not remote?

People keep worrying about the Mets signing Lohse, that is clearly not happening.

As Minaya sees it, he has 6 starters:
Santana, Pedro, Ollie, Maine, Hernandez, Pelfrey.

He has even said "This is the rotation we are starting the season with.".

If the Phillies really want Lohse, they can have him.

If he's not one of the Phillies top 10 prospects, he must really suck, as the Phils farm systems tends to bite the proverbial "big one."

kdon: I would agree. However, I disagree that ALL players in rookie ball have a remote chance. Some clearly are showing potential, while others, like Myers, are not.

ae: I don't contend it's a perfect comparison by any measure. My only point was that Stairs is another poor fielding OF and had a 138 OPS+ (admittedly mostly against RH's), and only got about 2mil. So Burrell, while much much younger and more consistent recently, still might not be a $14mil a year commodity.

But thank you for picking out the most marginal point I made to summarize the validity of my post.

Andy: If you limit it to the Phillies, that's easy: None. Their best prospects are all 20 and older.

Brian G: You don't think Burrell would be able to get $14M a year on the open market? Interesting.

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EST. 2005

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