Caribbean: Castro takes loss in battle of unbeatens

Phillies left-hander Fabio Castro started the game for the top-seeded Aguilas Cibaenas and cruised until a seventh-inning rally led to his undoing in a 5-2 round-robin loss to the Licey Tigers in the Caribbean Series. [Link]

Summarizing from an MLB.com report, the Tigres scored the game's first run off Castro in the fourth when Anderson Hernandez scored from second base on a single up the middle by Nelson Cruz. Hernandez reached base with a single to left field and advanced to second on a Castro wild pitch. After that, he cruised until the seventh when Licey scored two on a two-run double by Matt Tupman. Castro was pulled for reliever Santiago Ramirez, who promptly surrendered a two-run home run.

Castro’s final line: 6 2-3 innings, 6 strikeouts, 2 walks, 4 earned runs.

Beerleaguer: Although he took the loss, the 23-year-old lefty held own in what must be considered one of the biggest games of his life. These were the top two clubs in DWL, so the stakes were high. Established stars like Miguel Tejada, Ronnie Belliard and Edwin Encarnacion are among the players battling for bragging rights this series. There's still plenty of time for the live-armed left-hander to develop into serviceable Major League contributor, but command problems continue to limit him.

Comments

[clout]

Jason: Castro can be a nice bullpen lefty (I don't think he'll pan out as a starter because of lack of command over his breaking stuff) down the road, but as you say, command will dictate that as well.

He had a decent K/BB ratio at Reading last season (24/6) but when he got to Ottawa he fell apart (47/33).

[Andy]

The thing about Castro is he seems to be close to unhittable when he's on. He just cannot always control what he throws. It's got to be maddening for his catcher and pitching coach.

[Willard Preacher]

Serviceable LOOGY is about Castro's ceiling at this point. I don't see him getting much more than that (a la Romero). I think of him as a young, developing left handed Madson.

[Andy]

I was looking a little more at the impact of Feliz' quick at bats on the line-up, trying to figure out who eats up the most pitches for the Phils, and made an interesting discovery. Both Howard (4.19 pitch/PA - 2007, 4.09 career) and Burrell (4.22, 4.19) do very well. But there is another player on the 25 man roster who crushes them in patience at the plate (4.58 in 2007, 4.50 - career).

We are, quite simply, not Werthy.

[bay_area_phan]

Going back to the last thread, there was a debate about whether the Phillies are just cheap when it comes to relievers, or whether they genuinely believe that their bullpen is solid.

I think it's a combination of both. Ownership has set up an artificially low payroll, which forces the GM to make choices. Given these budgetary constraints, Gillick seems to think that it's a waste of resources to invest too much money in the bullpen, since no individual reliever pitches very many innings over the course of the year. If the Phillies had a talent-rich minor league system, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with this philosophy. Since they don't have any major-league worthy bullpen prospects, there's no getting around spending money to fix the problem. It's not a matter of how many innings any particular reliever will pitch over the course of the season. It's that the bullpen, as presently constituted, is going to lose them a lot more games than they would have lost by having a Helms/Dobbs platoon at third base or Jayson Werth as the full-time right fielder.

The irony is that Gillick & Amaro both acknowledged the critical need for pitching, in their comments early this off-season. How does one reconcile these comments with their complete inactivity in this area? I believe the answer is this: I am convinced that, ever since the George Bell maneuver, which was 24 years ago, Gillick sincerely believes that he has the unique ability to discern hidden talent that his fellow GMs and scouts don't see. He honestly believes that guys like Travis Blackley, Lincoln Holdzcom, & Shane Youman are going to come in and be solid relievers -- just as he believed that about Jim Ed Warden, Alfredo Simon, Julio Santana, Francisco Rosario, and Ricardo Rodriguez. If he hits a few jackpots, the Phillies' bullpen might well be better than expected. But I wouldn't count on it.

[Paul]

Castro sounds like trade bait to me.

[Jack]

Paul- Castro sounds like he should be back in the competition for a bullpen spot to me. I know he has struggled in the past, his command being the biggest issue, but you simply don't give up a talented lefty arm, especially when you are selling low like the Phils would be right now. You give guys like this plenty of second, third, and fourth chances to make an impact in your bullpen, especially when your pen is as weak as ours. Does anyone disagree that Castro has the potential to be way better than Youman, Condrey, Blackley or any of the other garbage that's in the back of the bullpen now?

[Paul]

understood, and to an extent, i agree.
But Youman Condrey and Blackley sound like trade bait to me, too.
Hes seen the field only in blowouts or in situations where Charlie was out of options. (the crazy Nats two years ago)

Im just tired of hearing about his ceiling and seeing his basement.

[Andy]

Jack - how about phrasing that:

Would anyone not fail to disagree that Castro does not have less value than Youman, Condrey, Blackley etc?

That way we can be clear about our answer.

[Jack]

Paul- Um, what do you expect to get for Youman, Condrey, or Blackley? Not to be harsh here, but do you not understand how trading works, that other people have to WANT what you have in order to make a trade? I mean, maybe we could get like 5 g's and some frequent flyer miles? And you usually wanna deal from a position of strength, not total and utter weakness, like dealing the dregs of our bullpen would be. Say what you want about Gillick or Amaro, they seem to understand this much at least...

[bay_area_phan]

Jack: Yes, for what little it's worth, Castro certainly has a higher ceiling than any of those guys. He's also incredibly wild & has never shown even the slightest sign of improvement in this area. If he can ever improve his control to the point where it's merely crappy, instead of atrocious, then he might deserve a spot in the back of our bullpen.

[clout]

I want to repeat my post at the end of the last thread since it's pertinent to this discussion:
I agree 100% with Tray. The Phillies are quite happy with their bullpen as is, from Gordon as setup man down to Youmans and Condrey in middle relief. They think this is a championship caliber bullpen.

They think last year's numbers (the blown saves, the 4.50 ERA (4th worst in the NL), the .800+ OPS in the 6th and 7th innings) was a fluke.

Here are the bullpen ERAs of the 4 NL playoff teams last season plus the Padres, who are still waiting for Holliday to cross home plate:
Padres 3.06
Cubs 3.76
Rockies 3.85
D'backs 3.95
Phillies 4.50

Bullpen problem? What bullpen problem?

[clout]

Jack: I agree with you on Castro, but before I throw him to the major league wolves I want him to show me that he can repeat that Reading K/BB ratio in Triple A. If he can't, he stays in Allentown until he can or becomes a 6-year minor league free agent, whichever comes first.

[Paul]

People WANT what you have in order to trade?
Never in a million Abreu years would I have Abreu thought that. At least Gillick and Amaro know that much, though....
But I agree with you once more, 5K and some Flier miles are a good start.

[ae]

Gillick sincerely believes that he has the unique ability to discern hidden talent that his fellow GMs and scouts don't see.

I think that's probably a very good point, b_a_p. also worth noting that Gillick (or whoever's doing the scouting) actually has come up with good longshot players on offense - Werth & Dobbs being the most obvious examples. and when you compound that with the implausible success of Romero last year and brief intervals of mediocrity from Alfonseca & Mesa, I'm sure those guys have more than enough evidence for their own brilliance.

[Dan]

sorry, cannot get excited about Fabio Castro news while my office window gets bombarded with "ticker tape" aka full sheets of paper from the broadway parade down below...

i feel like McNabb after the rams game...watching the on field celebration to feel what its like...too bad it only took him three more tries

WHEN IS OUR PARADE??????????????

[J. Weitzel]

Here's a philosophy I agree with: winning breeds winners. Having a state-of-the-art facility in Allentown should help make Triple-A a viable place to prepare talent again, instead of loser, no-hope places like Ottawa. It's going to feel a lot more like the big-league experience. I'm anxious to see players like Castro, Outman, Happ and Jaramillo continue to grow there.

[The Prince of Darkness]

Never, Dan. Never.

[Andy]

Jason, I grew up in Allentown. What leads you to believe it is not a "loser, no-hope place"?

Allentown put the AL in ALPO.

(Of course I realize you're talkin' about that nice new stadium and not the Lehigh Valley's dingy county seat itself.) (I already have friends asking when I'm coming into town for a 'pigs game.)

[The_GodfatherSJP]

Okay Clout, the most important stat for offense as a whole is this: RUNS. Not RBI, not OBP, not SLG, RUNS are the most important measure of an offense. The more runs you score, the better your offense is, period, because you need to score to win the game.

By that measure the Phillies far and away had the best offense in the NL last year. The Mets scored 804 runs, the Braves 810. Now before you go A-HA! Braves scored more runs, here's the monthly breakdown:
Month Mets Braves
Mar/Apr 140 138
May 120 125
June 108 108
July 123 159
August 161 149
Spet/Oct 152 131

Mets beat the Braves every month except May-July, where it's close in May, tied in June. But who was injured for the Mets during that time? Alou missed about 50-60 games during that time period. Beltran, it should be noted also was hobbled by a bad quad (or hamstring) the entire month of June and into the All-star break but kept playing through it. The Braves, on the other hand, lost Jones for stretches during May and June, which is why their run production is lower during those months.

But look at the last two months, where the lineups are similar to what's going to be there on opening day. Mets outscore the Braves, when the former has Castillo and the latter has Teixeira. Moreover, this is when Lo Duca is hobbled by a bad leg and misses time from July-August, and Delgado only plays 13 games down the stretch. The Braves, by contrast are missing Renteria, but that's when Escobar, whom you're so high on, is playing.

Bottom line, Mets scored more runs down the stretch. More runs = better offense.

[Mike H.]

Sorry, Godfather. You're half right. Runs are merely the output of getting on base and hitting extra base hits. It's pretty well documented that OPS correlates the best with offensive success.

[GM-Carson]

The guy I wanted for our 'pen, Rudy Seanez, just reupped with the Dodgers for a measly 550k.

I really hope Thee Model Dictator finds his stride in Triple A this season and can be used for tradebait or a reliable pitcher in '09.

[Dull]

Interesting. Why not put Castro into the 5th starter mix. He seemed to get stronger as the game went on until he hit the wall in the 7th. Castro struck out the side in the 5th and picked up another K in the 6th. Then tired in the 7th. Reads like Q.S. material to me. Fabio gave up only one run with 6 Ks after 6 innings. The old Kendrick six innings, three runs or less "quality start". But it appears like with KK you'll need to bring on pen after that.

[Alby]

Paul: "Im just tired of hearing about [Castro's] ceiling and seeing his basement."

Isn't it a little early to give up on a 23-year-old whose development was interrupted by being a Rule 5 pick a couple of years ago?

[J. Weitzel]

A quality start in the Caribbean Series is different than one in the Majors. Caribbean is an all-or-nothing situation against lesser opponents, in a less-disciplined environment.

In the majors, you need six innings of good pitching every day. Fabio could give them that occasionally, albeit unpredictably. However, he could just as easily last two innings and murder the bullpen, which you absolutely, positively cannot afford. It kills your bullpen and screws your team for days.

If they want to stretch him out in a minor league rotation, I think it's fine. I actually prefer that because the repetition would help him lock into a release point. But unless his command changes dramatically, he's a future situational left-hander.

[clout]

Godfather: I agree that when looking at the whole team, runs is a prtety good measure of an offense, but it's not perfect. A team with a better offense might NOT score more runs than a weaker team (i.e. differences in number of innings played, quality of interleague opponents, luck etc.) Team OPS is a better measure.

Also, I'm not sure you can cherry pick one part of the season and say that it proves the Mets were the better offense. Who were the Mets playing in that stretch? Teams with good pitchiong or team with bad pitching? That factor alone makes a comparison unfair unless they played identical opponents.

The fact is, the Braves had better offense at 6 of the 8 positions once Tex & Escobar joined the team.

[Jack]

Clout- Agree that Castro needs to start in the minors, either in a starting role or a relief role where he is pitching most days. However, if he shows good control and command, the team should not hesitate to bring him up, as he already has service time and is on the 40-man roster, and because presumably Youman/Condrey/Blackley/garbage will be hurting the team. Or Flash will be hurt.

Quick game: Everyone guess the FIRST person called up from the minors during the season. At some point, probably in April, there will be a transaction in which the Phillies call up a player from either Double A or Triple A. Who will it be? I'll start it off by guessing Castro (although I think J.A. Happ is probably the odds-on favorite to make the first spot start). I predict a bullpen injury and Castro is the first guy to get that call (although I think Mathieson will replace him around June/July). When April comes around, we'll take a look in the archives, find this thread, and see who wins!

[Jack]

Quick note: The game is for first person called up during the season from the minors. That means if Jaramillo or anyone else makes the team out of spring training, they are disqualified. Only for guys who start the season in the minors.

[The_GodfatherSJP]

I wasn't cherry picking. The lineups for the final 2 months of 2007 are similar to the lineups for 2008. I'm arguing they're a better indicator for how the teams will perform this season, and also to show that the Mets, when healthy, scored more runs on offense than the Braves.

[Andy]

Jack,
It's almost sure to be a pitcher, with preference for someone who's pitched in the majors; since the bullpen needs LHPs, it'll probably need to be a lefty. They will be reluctant to call up anyone with no option years left. On the 40-man roster, there is one LHP who is down to one option year - and so would be the logical choice for multiple bus trips between the Lehigh Valley and Philly.

In other words, you already took the best choice, Jack. By my best reckoning (and I am wrong more often than clout) it's Castro.

But just to make it interesting, however, I'll take someone else. Hmmmmm...I guess, if he doesn't make the team out of ST (and since he has 2 option years left, they'd drop him down faster) I'll take Zagurski. He'll be sad to leave the promise of funnel cakes from the Great Allentown Fair; but he'll return to the Show for infrequent LOOGY duty.

[kdon(in Brussels)]

"A team with a better offense might NOT score more runs than a weaker team (i.e. differences in number of innings played, quality of interleague opponents, luck etc.) Team OPS is a better measure."

Wait, what?

All of those things you mention would affect OPS too, no?

The whole reason that OPS (and OBP) started to become more popular statistics was *because they correlated better with runs.*

When Mike H says:

"It's pretty well documented that OPS correlates the best with offensive success"

the "offensive success" he is talking about is runs. There is no abstract "offensive success" that OPS measures better than runs...runs *are* the standard.

To find the best offensive team, you simply look at runs scored and adjust for ballpark and competition.

[The_GodfatherSJP]

Kdon, thanks.

[Dan]

is Mathieson expected to start the season healthy? I think they are counting on some of the young guys (Zagurski, Mathieson) to contribute in the pen...or will at least give them a legitimate shot in ST..that would explain why theyre not wild about signing a proven reliever

ughhhh, the lets go giants chants from city hall are making me sick!!!!!!!!

[Andy]

Godfather - "The lineups for the final 2 months of 2007 are similar to the lineups for 2008."

How did you factor in Church, Schneider and Kotsay?

And, (both sides here) how do you factor in age? Francoeur, Teixiera, Johnson, Reyes and Wright will probably all improve; Delgado, Jones, and Alou will, meanwhile, likely decrease in ability.

It's one thing to argue who had the better offense last year. In that case you cannot separate it out by months. (You might say that the Mets had a better offense in September 2007, but that becomes a little meaningless.)

Since (I seem to remember) the discussion began with a statement that indicated weakness in the Braves line-up, I think we can conclude that there is no such weakness. Using many different measures, I get the idea that the teams each had potent offenses; it seems to be the hallmark of the NL East right now.

[Andy]

Dan:
hop a ferry; it's quiet over here in SI.

[J. Weitzel]

Andy: It has more to do with the facility than actual town. When it opens, Coca-Cola Park promises to be one of the best in the minors. New cages, clubhouse, training room, etc. And tons of fans, unlike Ottawa.

[Jack]

Andy, if you wanna predict Castro, go for it, multiple people can select the same guy, makes it more fun that way. Anyway, I like the Zagurski selection just as much, seems like they preferred him at points last year.

Who wants to be bold and predict a major leaguer who starts the season on a rehab stint and then gets called up? Gordon, Lidge, Eaton, Madson all seem like possible candidates...

[Jack]

Dan: Or come up to midtown. Other than the occasional painted face and stragglers from the parade, street looks pretty normal to me.

[clout]

kdon: How does OPS increase (or decrease) simply because you play more innings than another team?

[ae]

the problem with both runs scored AND team OPS is that they're park-dependent. OPS+, or away R/G, would probably be better. look at the 2007 NL results - Colorado is second in runs scored, but their away runs per game and OPS+ only rank 5th.

admittedly away R/G is also slightly flawed, since it can get skewed based on the imbalanced schedules and the characteristics of other parks in the division. but you get the idea.

[clout]

kdon: Do you think the Mets are a better offensive team than the Braves?

[The_GodfatherSJP]

Definition of similar: having a likeness or resemblance, esp. in a general way.

I'd say returning 13 out of 16 guys from each lineup (the only changes ARE Schneider, Church, and Kotsay) qualifies as SIMILAR.

And the discussion began with me saying the Braves offense was weaker than the Mets and Phillies. I still believe that is the case, because they lack an established hitter to lead off. Healthy, the Mets are a better team offensively.

NOTE, I said HEALTHY. With Alou out of the lineup and any other injuries they suffer, the Mets are not better. But that's true for any team.

[MG]

JW - I don't know if Allentown will make that much of a difference in player development. The biggest advantage is that players can be shuffled on a daily basis if the Phils are home or in NY. Plus, you have a better chance of signing of a veteran player to play in Allentown (East Coast) vs another a very boring city in Canada.

[Dave X]

For what its worth, Dave Pinto from Baseball Musings plugged in projected lineups and ran their seasons a bunch of times. While it doesn't get rid of park concerns, it found that the Phils and Braves were close and the Mets were projected to be substantially less of an offensive force. Obviously a lot can change - injuries, platoon effectiveness, trades, etc., but its interesting nonetheless.

[The_GodfatherSJP]

Dave X, where's this website address? I'd like to check this out for myself.

[MG]

Reason I am worried about the back-end of the bullpen is that I think C. Durbin is coming to come out of came as the 5th starter (due to Eaton's health issues).

If that is the case, the Phils likely have 3 bullpen spots to fill. Figure they will try to go with a situational lefty. That means that Zagurski or Castro get a shot (even though both aren't ready and would be better served starting the year in the minors).

Other two spots to open to the flotilla of mediocre arms. I would imagine Condrey has an inside spot on one spot unless he pitches very poorly in spring training/gets hurt. The other spot - I have no idea but no real good choices. Maybe one of the Rule V guys shines in spring training.

Regardless, I think that this team is going to lose a bunch of games again due to having 3-4 games in their pen with ERAs over 5.00/marginal stuff. Plus, you compound the fact that Cholly will probably be inclined to pushing his starters more. That is bad news for Moyer (and Kendrick) as the season wears on.

[MG]

This emphasis on the Phils' offense is overblown. How many runs can the Phils score to offset there below average pitching? Somebody mentioned here the Phils will score even more runs this year. I say that is BS. If anyone the Phils are likely to have a slight decline due to losing Rowand's numbers and a slight decline from a couple of players including JRoll, Werth, & Burrell.

If the Phils are going back to the playoffs, it is because their pitching staff markedly improves from last year and posts an a staff ERA around 4.25. They might get a slight bump on defense from Victorino moving to CF and Feliz at 3B but that is not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things. Maybe 10 runs over the course of the season. Now if the Phils had a stellar defensive LF and a really good 1B, then it might mean more.

[ae]

the Phillies posting a 4.25 ERA is virtually impossible. that would've been the 6th best ERA in the NL last year (better than LA and NY, two teams who will have a much, much, much easier time posting a low ERA than any Phillies team), and probably no worse than fifth in ERA+.

[bay_area_phan]

It's a bit difficult to predict the first call-up when we have no idea who will win the last 3 spots in the bullpen -- but I'll take that as part of the challenge. I'll say Condrey.

[Dave X]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024600.php

Marcel had about a .59 correlation with actual OPS in '07 (the highest being BP's PECOTA and ZiPS at about .62). So there's still a lot of room for error here. It sees more of a decline from the Phils than a rise from the Braves.