NL East: Braves quietly flying under winter radar

While the Mets make headlines - and the Phillies make predictions - the Braves have made an assortment of moves designed to win right now.

The Braves would never publicly declare themselves the team to beat. Their modest approach stays consistent every season, even during their unprecedented run of 14-consecutive division titles. Last year, they tried to limit their playoff drought to a single season by aggressively adding Mark Teixeira, Ron Mahay, Octavio Dotel and Royce Ring in a flurry of deadline deals, but to no avail. They faded from contention, finishing 84-78 and out of the running.

Frank Wren, pulling the strings in his first off-season as Atlanta’s GM, is trying to insert his club back into the conversation. It hasn’t worked, at least in the Northeast.

So let’s pay a visit to our southern rivals, starting with a list of departures. The Andruw Jones era is over. If they’re losing Andruw of two years ago, it’s a loss. If they’re losing the 88 OPS+ Andruw of 2007, it’s a gain. He stank, and it killed them. The Mahay and Dotel rentals expired. Shortstop Edgar Renteria, who they didn’t need because they have a rising player in Yunel Escobar (.326/.385/.451, 319 ABs) was traded for a pair of prospects, including Dutch right-hander Jair Jurrjens, who’s in the early running for a spot in the rotation.

Tom Glavine returns, so besides Greg Maddux, the glory days are partially back. They also made – in my opinion -- the finest “small splash” of the entire off-season when they brought in lefty Will Ohman, who they acquired along with Omar Infante, for a prospect. Rotoworld said they would take Ohman, who’s owed $1.6 million this season, over J.C. Romero. And very quietly, the Braves acquired Mark Kotsay from the A's for Joey Devine, Jamie Richmond and cash considerations. Kotsay is trying to overcome back issues, and if you’re looking for great numbers the last couple seasons, you won’t find them, but something tells me Kotsay is just what they needed to run the show in center and breathe new life into the clubhouse. If he can’t go, another new pickup, Josh Anderson, can.

Kostay represents another winner to go with the preexisting pile of heart. Teixeira settles into his final arbitration year and the latest speculation finds that the slugging first baseman is looking to hit the open market next winter. Chipper Jones remains Chipper Jones, posting the greatest National League season no one talked about whatsoever (.337/.425/.604, 29 HR). Is Jeff Francouer overrated? There’s plenty of time to figure that out; he’s 24. Catcher Brian McCann, who tallied 42 total home runs the past two seasons, will be 24 this month.

Their starting rotation is comparable to the Phillies. Very solid at the top with Tim Hudson and John Smoltz. Crafty and ancient in the middle with Glavine. A little smoke and mirrors at the bottom in Chuck James. A question mark at fifth starter. They’ll experiment with Rafael Soriano at closer and surprising righty Peter Moylan at the setup spot until left-hander Mike Gonzalez returns, expected to happen by mid-season. If they can pull it off, like they hope, they are a dangerous group.

More than one writer says the Mets and Santana will face immense pressure to rebound from last season’s collapse, and the Phillies always have pressure to win, especially following a rare playoff berth.

The opposite can be said of Atlanta, where Wren is blending established stars with new leadership, budding talent and veterans with something to prove, with just a fraction of the urgency seen in Philadelphia and New York.

Comments

[dajafi]

Texiera and Hudson are solid and some of their young guys and role players will step up. But with Larry, Smoltz and Glavine all aging and likely to decline, miss time with injury or both, the Braves' shot at winning the division is bound up in Francoeur and McCann emerging as all-star types. I think they will and it'll be a three-team race... assuming the Phils' pitching holds up.

[Len39]

Great blog, I totally agree. I really think the Braves will be just as much competition as the Mets. I think the big thing people are overlooking is Texiera being in Atlanta for a full year. I remember that series at the end of last year at CBP where Texiera launched one in every game. This guy could be a real Phillies killer especially with a huge contract on the line. The pitching seems solid enough too and they have some players on the rise. The Braves definitely could win the division this year.

[thrillhouse26]

I'm not sold that Escobar is an upgrade or replacement even for Renteria's #'s and CF should likely be a bad(worse) spot this year as well. I'm most worried about Tex for a full season in the NL putting up Howard-lite numbers in his walk year.

I totally agree with Jason about them being the under the radar dogs even more so with Johan splashing the news.

[Rob]

The Phils are looking hard at Odalis Perez. Anyone think he could beat out Eaton for NO.5?

[Andy]

Rob -
Odalis Perez = Adam Eaton

[mm]

I was actually suprised that no one else in Philly or NY made any mention of the Braves and I'm happy you did J.

Besides the Kotsay Accquistion(which i'm down on, but makes some sense considering what they gave up and that its a mostly cash deal) i think the braves have had a solid off-season.

It's actually a shame that Atlanta could care less that they have had a committed ownership for so long that actually cares about putting a winning product on the field.

I still hate them, but i commend their solid baseball operations. They generally seem to get the upperhand in most of their trades, or at least, fair value. And they draft extremely well.

If only we had such committed ownership...

On an aside, i couldn't help but chuckle at the headline "CBP has Feliz ready to grab a bat". It should read "CBP has Feliz ready to grab a bat...and put it back down after a GIDP."

Since the Phils are all about PR and Marketing how about for 2008 we have "Who wants to be the Phillies 5th Starter".

They can bring in College Kids, Indy League Journeymen and other amateur/semi-pro Pitchers and do a reality TV show around it. They can have the Ball Girls audition to be the hostess, and have a panel of judges: I'm thinking Wild Thing, Lefty, and Larry Andersen.

It could be on CSN or 17.

[Andy]

"They can bring in College Kids, Indy League Journeymen and other amateur/semi-pro Pitchers..."

Maybe they could even bring in Vic Da...

Nevermind.

[GM-Carson]

Odalis Perez would purely be an insurance policy should Adamn Eaton not be ready to go. Also, my guess is Perez could be had for about 2 mil and maybe the Phils think he could be a 2nd lefty out of the pen.
However, lefties have actually been slightly better off of him over his career (.763 OPS vs. lefties/.748 OPS vs. righties).

[Andy]

Along those lines, though, we might have a poll as to which Rule 5 sticks the longest - Blackley - the junk-balling Australian (not that that there's anything wrong with that, bloodstripes) lefty potential starter, or Holdzcomb the fire-tossing, head-case, possible bullpen filler.

Since I like Holdzcomb's potential better, I'm betting he gets offered back first.

[Andy]

Carson - yeah; I looked at his splits. Not much to be gained there.

With two (2) Durbins, do we need more Eatonesque insurance for Eaton?

[Rob]

The only reason I saw Perez as "better" than Eaton is because at least he WAS good in the last 5 yrs (see 2004 stats) Eaton, on the other hand has NEVER been any good (unless you consider 4.08 "good" in the NL

[DPatrone]

Odalis Perez??? A Major League Deal??? They're kidding right???

[Andy]

Rob. Actually, it's sort of my bad. Saying that anyone is "equal" to Eaton is underestimating their ability. Worms have better arms.

[Dull]

I like Odalis simply because he has a history of a ground ball pitcher. With the addition of Feliz at third makes Perez more effective in a Phils uni. Eaton and Chad Durbin are fly ball ptchers and only parks with 385 ft. power alleys and hign fences on the road can help them! Oh! that right the Nats will no longer play at RFK this season.

[Andy]

Dull, I like your reasoning. The Phils absolutely want to stock up on GB pitchers. Unfortunately, however, Odalis Perez is much less a GB pitcher now than he used to be. His GO/AO ratio between 2002 - 2004 was 1.62; that would be excellent in the Zen. Since then, however (2005 - 2007), it was 1.18. Moreover, his K/BB rate has drifted steadily downward (3.07 in 2002 to 1.28 last year - mostly because he is missin far fewer bats). I wish we could get the 2002-03 version of Perez. But the 2007 version is not much of an improvement over Eaton.

[Andy]

Odalis Perez??? A Major League Deal??? They're kidding right???

Ask your source. Bet the answer is: "No."

My source (the FO's MO) says: "Ruben Gillbuckle is convinced that Odalis is the new Real Deal."

[Jon]

The Phillies are complete and total fools if they bring in Odalis Perez! I can see taking a chance on Benson, but Odalis has sucked big time for a number of years now! Management should have opened their wallets a long time ago with regard to the #5 starter (or comptetion for that spot), as well as for the #2 left-handed reliever option!

[Jon]

More on Odalis "I totally suck" Perez:

Last year in 137.1 IP, he gave up 178 Hits and 50 BB!!!! It's amazing that his ERA was only 5.57!!!!

[bay_area_phan]

Oh good. Now that I know that we might get Odalis Perez, I no longer feel badly about the fact that the Mets got Santana.

[DPatrone]

Andy~
"Odalis Perez??? A Major League Deal??? They're kidding right???"

Ask your source. Bet the answer is: "No."

I haven't talked to him.He did tell me Feliiz was gonna sign. But we all knew that. I'm more concearned about zero intertest in Helms and Stan Hochmann's comments about trading for a starter on DNL the other day

[Rob]

Jon-- that's a WHIP of 1.66.. Eaton's WHIP was 1.63.. Again, why SHOULDN'T he (Andy help me)--- compete for 5th starter?? Like I said Eaton has proved middling to terrible his entire career.. Perez has SOME good years on his resume'..Also.. he's only 30

[bay_area_phan]

Ok, now that I got my obligatory potshot at management out of the way, here's my more reasoned analysis.

It's probably a minority view, but I won't be offended if they sign Odalis Perez. The Odalis Perez of a few years ago was exactly what the Phillies needed -- a durable ground ball pitcher, who doesn't give up many homeruns & posts a very respectable ERA. Of course, he hasn't been that pitcher since 2004 &, over the last 2 years, he wasn't appreciably better than Adam Eaton. Still, considering he's only 30, I think it would be a worthwhile gamble to sign him. The downside risk of signing Perez is no more than it would have been for, say, Matt Clement, who I also thought they should sign. And, like Clement, Perez does have an upside -- perhaps even more than Clement, because he's younger & less injury-riddled.

Conclusion: I'm on board with signing Odalis Perez. In fact, I'm not only on board with it; I actually want it to happen. That should come as good news to all of you who DON'T want it to happen because, historically speaking, whenever I've wanted the Phillies to do something, they've never done it.

[elliott]

So does anyone really think the mets will sign lohse now? what do you think will happen with him? do you think we may still be interested?

[GM-Carson]

If the Oh-Dallas signing is for about 2 mil, I'm ok with it.

The big question is who gets traded?

Right now Helms and Snelling are both without a spot on the 25 man roster and we also need to make room on the 40 man...hopefully Gillick has something creative planned.

[bay_area_phan]

As for the Braves, I'm not terribly impressed with their off-season haul. For sure, their best move of the "off-season" was the one they made last year: bringing in Teixeira. Other than that, they signed a badly fading pitcher in Glavine, lost an offensive player with vastly more upside than the thoroughly mediocre Mark Kotsay, lost 2 very solid relief pitchers, & lost one of the league's better shortstops. Escobar's minor league numbers were good last year but color me skeptical that he can come right in & adequately replace Edgar Renteria, on either offense or defense.

I thought the Braves would make a much bigger splash this off-season. From their comments, they certainly sounded like they were going to go out and spend money. But they didn't. This is, more or less, the same Braves team that faded so badly down the stretch last year -- minus Jones, Renteria & two relievers. It's difficult for me to see them being much of a force next year.

[clout]

If the Phillies offer Odalis Perez a guaranteed major league contract, it will explain quite a lot for me. It will show that the disastrous string of bad trades and bad FA signings over the past 3 years is not the result of bad luck.

[Rob]

clout-- IMO, the only way Perez gets here is via ST invite. I would totally agree with you that ample psychoanalysis should be provided to any and all Phils' execs who toss real money at a pitcher like this.. While I believe he may have SOME upside, hell, let him prove it.

[AWH]

Jason, good post.

The Braves concern me because of something no one here has mentioned yet, and you didn't reference in your thread:

Bobby Cox.

IMO, he's hands down the best manager in MLB the last 15-20 yrs. He get's the most out of his talent, keeps his team loose, and is a very, very good in game strategist.

If you were asked to pick the winner of three realtively equal teams with Randolph, Manuel and Cox as the managers, who would you pick?

The Braves have some talent, and Glavine comes back a a #3, not a #1 which was forced on him last year. They may not win the division or make the playoffs, but they will have an impact, and perhaps determine the division winner by who they beat more, the Phillies or the Mets.

[bay_area_phan]

I'm not thrilled with the idea of a guaranteed contract to Odalis Perez either. I'd much prefer a minor league contract, but that would only be doable if there's no other team that's willing to offer him guaranteed money.

Let me be clear: I don't really think Odalis Perez is an acceptable "solution" to the Phillies' pitching problems. However, I think he'd be a decent risk, given the present options & management's self-imposed budget. I still think the Phillies are ignoring an even greater area of need than starting pitching -- namely, the horrendous bullpen.

[clout]

BAP: Just to correct one thing in your post, Odalis wasn't appreciable better than Eaton over the past 2 seasons. He was slightly worse. His ERA+ past 2 years is 74 and 84. Eaton's was 73 and 90.

Perez K/BB ration last season of 64/50 in 137 IP suggest that he doesn't have either stuff or command. When he was good he was striking people out and his ratio was decent. His WHIP last season was 1.66, adding further evidence.

He's had injury problems and that may be why he no longer has either stuff or command. A guy like this is worth a look-see on a minor league contract with invite to ST. But only an incompetent would sign him to a major league contract.

[bay_area_phan]

Clout: Is he really any riskier than Matt Clement, who we both wanted the Phillies to sign?

[clout]

Speaking of the Braves I'm surprised no one has mentioned Brandon Jones. he will go a long way toward dictating the Braves fortunes this season. He's 24 has a broad set of skills and put up an OPS of .875 in AA. They promoted him to Richmond, where he hit .300 with slightly less power.

He's a lefty and would be a big upgrade over Kotsay or Anderson if he's ready. I'm not sure he can play CF, but they could move Francoeur there and stick him in RF. If Jones makes it, the Braves lineup would have strong offense at every single position, 1 thru 8.

[AWH]

As far as O Perez is concerned, I'm OK with it as long as it's not a MLB deal.

From the experience the Phillies had last year it should be abundantly clear to everyone that depth in the pitching staff is necessary. I don't like typing it, but someone on the staff is likely to go on the DL in 2008. Perez would add some needed depth, even if he's stashed in Allentown.

Lastly, Jason referenced the acquisition of Ohman, who was brought in as insurance in case Gonzalez is completely healthy. Gonzalez was brought in specifically because of Howard and Utley (much like Dennis Johnson was brought in by the Celtics to stifle Andrew "The Boston Strangler" Toney), and Ohman will fill that role until he's back.

[clout]

BAP: Yes. Because with Clement, he was pitching well before his injury. Perez has been bad even when healthy and, when both pitchers were at their peak, Clement was better. Plus Clement has had surgery. If Perez's poor record lately is because of an arm injury, he hasn't addressed it yet.

[AWH]

That should have said:

"in case Gonzalez 'is not' completely healthy."

[Ski Bolton]

I just don't see the braves competing with the mets and phils. Their rotation is more stable now with the additions of glavine and jurrjens, and the possible return of mike hampton. Besides hudson though, most of these guys don't go real far into starts anymore, and I'm skeptical that they'll get a young guy to go 6+ innings every time out. That's alot of innings for a pretty lousy bullpen.
I don't think kotsay and escobar will be able to replace the production of the guys they are stepping in for.

[Morty]

clout:

it's not bad luck.
/ morty

[AWH]

Ski, agreed, but you forget they're going to have a full season of Tex's production at first base, which will replace some of the production lost at the other positions.

And despite a low BA against the Phils, he's .925 OPS against them, with 13 RBIs in 12 games.

I'm not cowering in fear, but the Braves will, as I said, have an impact.

[bay_area_phan]

Clout: I would agree that Clement was ever so slightly better than Perez when both were at their best. But ever so slightly.

You have a point about Clement having addressed his injury & Perez, not so -- but, then again, we have no idea whether Perez has had the types of injuries which need to be addressed, or whether they can be cleared up with rest. Clearly, you don't sign a guy like Perez (or, for that matter, Clement) without watching him throw & doing your homework on his health situation.

My bottom line is this: In an age of $20M per year contracts, the $1M or $1.5M they'd have to pay on a one-year deal to Perez is pocket change. If he doesn't work out, you waive him & move on. I just don't see that kind of contract as a significant risk.

[diehard]

wow odalis perez, when i read that i literally jumped through the ceiling of my house with excitement, i personally still think the Phils should look into signing Bonds as he is the only player left as a FA who would significantly help us. I hope Pat Burrell continues how he ended up but over the years he has shown he is not consistent for a whole year. Here are his BA month by month last year. .292/.179/.129/.435/.290/.209 So next year if Pat has those months where he hits below .200 again, like he did in 3 out of the 6 months, then we are in trouble. Remember how much more dangerous our lineup was with Burrell hitting. So with Rowand gone, does that mean if Burrell doesn't hit for 3 of the 6 months again, do we leave a hitter who hitting .200 behind Howard or Jenkins? There is no pitcher out there who is going to make us feel that much more confident about our chances. And for the record I am not a big Bonds fan but a huge Phillies fan and would rather see the team win with criminals than lose with nice guys. We've already been through the Rico Brogna/Doug Glanville era and it's time to take the next step and Odalis Perez is not the answer

[Jack]

If that's their last move to improve their pitching, then signing Odalis Perez is terrible. Get a real pitcher in here please.

"when both pitchers were at their peak, Clement was better."

Perez' 2 best seasons: 126, 126 ERA+

Clement's 2 best seasons: 120, 112 ERA+

Perez at his peak was better than Clement at his peak, but neither are anywhere near it now, and have shown nothing in the last 2 years (Clement did not even pitch last year). I can't imagine either pitcher improving our team this year.

[Jack]

Diehard- Batting Average is a pretty useless stat to use to measure offensive ability. Here is Pat's OBP by month:

.447/.360/.276/.564/.368/.376

Pretty much every month except June Pat had a very good or at least above-average OBP. I think his production is the least of our worries.

[bay_area_phan]

diehard: Your post reminded me of a printed quote from the coach of our terrible high school baseball team: "We have a bunch of really nice kids on our team. Now what we need are some juvnenile delinquents who can play baseball."

As for Bonds, I would be lying if I said the thought hadn't occurred to me. But he can barely move anymore & would give us 2 of the worst defensive outfielders in the history of baseball. Not to mention the 3-ring circus he would bring with him.

[diehard]

as far as 2 of the worst defensive outfielders in the history, we only have to play one at a time, and yes Bonds is worst in the field than Burrell, but Barry always hits righties a lot better than Burrell. .283/.486/.587/1.073 compared to Burrell's .257/.391/.489/.880. My point isn't that Burrell's offensive production is our biggest concern because I'd much rather spend money on a starter who you know will be good (and not hope he is). But if Burrell struggles and need to sit down for a week or 2 like he did at times last year then who hits behind Howard... Jenkins? Werth? Utley? Feliz? Rollins? there is nobody to give Howard protection when Burrell doesn't play.

[diehard]

We wouldn't need Barry to come in hitting 70 homers or even 30, just having someone as insurance in case Burrell doesn't hit all year

[diehard]

Plus I don't think there is any argument that if we platooned Burrell/Bonds or gave Burrell more starts because of Bonds' health, then whoever didn't start would be a better option off the bench than Snelling or Helms, whoever is still here after spring training

[bay_area_phan]

Ok, diehard, you just lost me. You want to take one of our best offensive players & turn him into a platoon player?

[John D]

Barry Bonds won't sign with any team to be a platoon player or a backup. The only thing bigger than Barry's head is his ego.

[diehard]

Not a strict platoon, because Bonds might not be able to hold up playing everytime they throw a righty, but give him occasional starts against righties who Burrell could struggle against. The point of a platoon would be to increase production, doesn't matter how you increase it. Bond's numbers against righties are significantly higher than Burrell's and last year Bonds even has a higher OPS than Burrell (.991 to .950). I know the higher OPS against lefties would be because of all the walks Bonds gets, but Barry's SLG is only 11 points lower (.532 to .521). I would almost have to assume that while AT&T Park is a good park for a LH hitter, Bonds would just benefit from not having that huge right center.
Imagine a game started by Smoltz, if you could replace Bonds with Burrell, it just means that Utley and Howard would get more pitches to hit and in a close game that could mean the difference between winning and losing. The fact that Burrell's a FA after this year makes me want to do it even more because with the way the market is going and the Phillies lack of acceptance of this, it is no lock we sign Burrell anyways so why not go for it this year, and if Pat doesn't want to share time then he isn't any more a team player then Bonds. I just want this team to win sooo bad and I'd hate to be sitting here in June wondering why Burrell can't hit a slider and running a lineup out there with Jenkins hitting behind Howard.

I know the idea sounds crazy but there is no pitcher left out there who could potentially increase our chances of beating the Mets or Braves (sorry Lohse). But adding Bonds to the lineup on somedays would make the pitcher have to work so much harder to get through the lineup, and why not make Smoltz, Hudson, Maine, or Pedro work that much harder. Burrell can offer protection behind Howard when he is hot, but he is a streaky hitter, who's streaks seem to be months at a time.

Again I'd much rather have Pat Burrell and avoid Bonds if I felt we could, but Burrell has shown that he has weaknesses, especially against good right handed pitchers, and I really believe that going to a team with Rollins (who would definitely enjoy the extra media attention), Utley, and Howard, that Bonds would understand he isn't the whole team like he was in SF and wouldn't have to try to do as much all the time.

[diehard]

John D I understand it is not likely Bonds would agree to this, as this is more hypothetical than anything, mainly because I doubt the Phillies would even consider something like this because of the baggage he could bring. And they are more worried about the PR than wins/losses I feel sometimes, but if Barry has no other offers from a contender (or anyone else for that matter), why not see what it would take to bring him in, doesn't hurt to ask. Maybe deep deep deep deep down he actually cares about winning a World Series. Signing Bonds would also tell the rest of the team, hey the Mets signed Santana, here is what were doing to win this year. Hate him or not, Barry would sell more tickets and merchandise for management. And if he helps us get to the World Series, it gives us that much more money to be players in free agency next year. And if we don't make the playoffs then I don't see how replacing Bonds with Snelling makes us worse and we probably weren't going to make it anyways then.

[bay_area_phan]

diehard: I regard this blog as sort of a marketplace of ideas and, on that theory, the idea of signing Barry Bonds was worthy of about a one-paragraph post. But, since there are are about 8 zillion reasons why it would never happen, I think it's time to move on to a new subject.

[diehard]

The post above where I mentioned Bonds has a higher OPS than Burrell (.991 to .950) i forgot to mention that was their OPS against LH last year.

[diehard]

BAP, I understand but I feel that talking about Bonds and what he could do for us even though it won't happen, is just as important as discussing Odalis Perez.

[Andy]

b-a-p:
I believe you meant 8 "gazillions"

[diehard]

Plus the fact we had no shot of signing A-Rod didn't stop people from posting on here about what he would/could do from us, but I understand that this website should be more for transactions that might happen, I do love reading this and hearing people's thoughts about topics they might consider useful, and I think he would help this team on the field, and I didn't think in a paragraph post I could fully explain why I think that, because it I did it in a paragraph, all I would have definitely got is that I'm crazy (which I'm not ruling out), but at first glance there doesn't seem to be a fit for him, but I am just not completely convinced Pat Burrell has turned his career all the way around and can be counted on to be a consistent performer this year.

[Andy]

I'm wondering what's gonna happen with Helms. Surely they cannot be planning to keep him on the 25. But it sure seems less and less likely that anyone will spring for his contract.

To anyone who is willing to pay him, I feel reasonably sure that the Phils would trade Helms and two dozen donuts for a dozen donuts.

[Andy]

(They'd trade him for "future considerations.")

[diehard]

The 8 gazillion reasons are mostly off the field issues, and all that would get overlooked if we win a World Series.

[Andy]

diehard:
In 2007 Bonds received $15.8 MM.
I would ask how you intend paying him, but we all know
#1) There is no good answer and
#B) The Phils would never seek a way to meet his demands - even if they agreed that he was worth it (which I don't think they will)

Please, please, please, do NOT type out a four post, seven paragraph each (average) answer to that question.

It might be fun to see Bonds out there. He might be productive. He probably would sell tickets. He would provide RH pitchers with all kinds of problems in our line-up. BUT it's not gonna happen. Simply.

[diehard]

Bonds isn't getting 15.8 million next year from anybody, so you would settle on something far less than that. Small base salary with incentives that trigger with both a minimum number at bats (lower number since not part time), and performance in those smaller number of at bats

[diehard]

meant lower number of at bats since part time

[bay_area_phan]

diehard: While we're on the subject of signing Bonds, I'd like to propose that we trade Zagurski and T.J. Bohn for Roy Oswalt & Lance Berkman. My proposed trade is no less implausible than our signing Barry Bonds.

[MG]

Odalis Perez. Just what the Phils need-Another pitcher who can't even remotely find the strike zone with any kind of consistency. The kicker to boot is that his K/9 rate has dropped off a cliff too since his fastball has lost 3-4 MPH (probably upper 80s at best) and his out slider is no longer has the sweeping action which once made it his out pitch. So basically he is a poor candidate for a long-relief spot in the pen too.

Plus, on top of it Perez is a douche bag. He pouted quite verbally when the Dodgers moved him to the pen two years ago. The real kicker was this though:

"[Perez] stopped his O's 45's program, in which he bought 45 tickets for inner-city school children to attend his starts, after losing his starting job. He said he would not reinstate the program now that he is starting again because he felt he never got enough credit from the club or the public for his charitable contributions.

"When you spend your own money you want to be recognized for that," Perez said. "I don't want to be a hero, but just pay more attention to what I'm doing. People don't want to give me the recognition for it."

In fact, they were only too happy to trade him for nothing (Elmer Dressens) to baseball Siberia in KC.

Besides all that, I guess it wouldn't be the worst thing if the Phils can structure a deal where Perez gets a minor league deal and then gets an additional bump if he makes the club out of spring training/incentive-upside potential. If he gets a guaranteed contract, this will be a bad-signing.

[diehard]

BAP, i get the sarcasm of the proposed trade, but while unlikely of us signing him it would only cost money, and maybe not too much if there are no other offers. which is only way of him agreeing to this because he would take a starting job anywhere over sharing time here. But if all it takes is money I just wish Phils would look into what it would take. And if its unreasonable, then walk away and let him retire, but I feel he is is only player out there that could make our team considerably better. If Pat Burrell doesn't hit next year and we have no other options it will make it pretty hard to make the playoffs.

[Bob]

just like when people were complaining about the feliz signing i ask, how would signing odalis perez hurt?

[Rob]

MG--since when did being a douche bag stop the Phils from signing (or retaining) anyone? Myers, Rolen, Mateo,Terrell, and Iverson to name a few.. Believe me, as in any sport , if you can REALLY play, that gets overlooked..Doesn't make it right. It's just the conditions , as fans, we all live under..

[Rob]

whoops i meant Philly teams.. not phillies

[Morty]

Wait, we just signed Ped-ro Ped-ro Feliz, and that's not enough? Now we need Bonds as well?

Well, I for one, am insulted on Pedro's behalf. And I would like King B to apologize.

BAP:
Great trade! But are we getting enough value back? Maybe we could ask Houston to pick up some salary?
/Morty

[Andy]

"if all it takes is money I just wish Phils would look into what it would take"

If the Phils looked into it and decided it was beyond budget, do you really think they'd publicize the fact that they were thinking about him? In other words, they might have.

But I doubt it. Because while he will not command $15.8, he is completely, totally, fully aware that, as far as ticket sales and marketing are concerned, his value has little to do with actually job performance. If Bonds (stays out of jail and) signs somewhere, I am willing to bet that it will be for (well) more than is currently "available" within the constraints of Philadelphia's budget.

Especially because we need to save a few bucks for mid-season acquisitions of a fifth starter, two middle relievers and a position player of some sort.

[fake King B (probably Andy)]

I'll apologize for King B and for "Fake Clout," but not for anyone who ever signed Terrell Owens.

[rustystaubsillegitmateson]

hey when are you guy's gonna dig up the carcass of al holland he could be your ace lol btw r.i.p tug mcgraw - a true met if there ever was one

[MG]

Bob - Because giving Perez anything other than a minor league contract is just foolish. If the Phils are going to have to drop $1 M or $1.5 M, I would rather have them use that money on a minor league contract for a veteran reliever/two and save the remainder if they need to take on some salary in a trade.

The disheartening thing is that you can pretty assume the Phils know that Eaton isn't healthy/won't give anything this year. Basically, the writing is already on the wall for the No. 5 starter spot:

1. Eaton is hurt/injured in spring training and starts the season in extended spring training or on the DL.
2. Durbin/Happ/or whatever other scraps the Phils bring in compete for the No. 5 starter spot. Said it a month ago, but I almost guarantee you C. Durbin is the No. 5 starter coming out of camp.
3. Durbin will generally fair poorly as a starter (ERA around 5.00) and the Phils will fiddle with this spot in the rotation for at least April. Eaton may come back in May but my bet is that they come up one of their better pitching prospects by mid-to-late June. Take your pick. It will be the one you are performed best at Reading probably.

[MG]

This is the real kicker about Eaton - if he was healthy he could be a serviceable enough starter (4.50-5.00 ERA) but the Phils got stuck with an Edsel that they can't even get to run.

[rustystaubsillegitmateson]

sorr y guys low blow. i will be honest with all of you as a met fan i personally won't dismiss the phils and atlanta if and until your teams get eliminated from contention thats how i was with the braves in '06 and thats how i will be in '08 because until we are the nl east champs the phillies will be the team to beat only bcause u were last years nl east champs

[ae]

just like when people were complaining about the feliz signing i ask, how would signing odalis perez hurt?

because the Phillies' rotation needs reliability, not another million-to-one shot. currently there's question marks at virtually every spot in the rotation and bullpen--and not the normal kind of question marks that every player has, but serious doubts regarding their performance in 2008.

this is why Perez hurts the team--because instead of spending the extremely limited budget on a reliever or starter who can be counted on for reliably averageish performance, you're spending as much as several million dollars on a guy who's probably an 80% chance of sucking tremendously, 19% chance of being mediocre, and 1% chance of miraculously becoming a decent pitcher once more.

[rustystaubsillegitmateson]

why not take a chance on garcia or trachel ? trachel is a bulldog he just was aloof in the 06 playoffs

[MG]

It is funny how Gillick is steadfast about signing pitchers to long-term deals (which I agree with in most situations) but has been content enough to sign huge injury-risks like Eaton and Gordon to middling deals that really handicap the Phils' payroll and pitching staff.

Unfortunately, I think you will see an exact repeat of last year when these two guys ineffectiveness/time on the DL really hurt this pitching staff. If Eaton and Gordon had even been league average and healthy respectively, this pitching staff would have been a lot better.

The Phils have and will likely sell the same line of crap this year about Eaton and Gordon.

[Dull]

It sure worked with Romero last year. When a pitcher is suddenly reduced to being out of a job and having only a chance to make 6 figures instead of 7 a veteran with some gas left in the tank reaches back and gains a little more focus. The economy for an unemployed starter is not that great in the DR or PR. Perez must realize he has only one more chance for a seven figure contract. I'd sign him and put him in the starting rotation mix. With options left don't be surprised if Kendrick gets hit in ST that he is optioned to AAA to start the season. Last ST Gillick showed no hesitation in screwing the team's leading hitter from 06.

Perez's last appearance was a 5 inning shutout win:
"Perez did not pitch after Aug. 18 when he won his eighth game with five shutout innings at Oakland. He sprained his left knee during a stretching routine the next day at Oakland." MLB.com

[diehard]

Obviously my idea of looking into signing Bonds is being mocked with BAP coming up with a BS trade proposal. My main point is that if Pat Burrell doesn't do what we are all hoping he will do then the strength of our team, the lineup, is going to drop significantly in production. We essentially would be losing the Burrell from last year and Rowand. This could lead to Howard breaking Bonds' IBB record. So I am just suggesting that the Phillies need to have some sort of alternative plan besides Pat Burrell, and I would love to hear who everyone else thinks that we could have hit 5th incase Burrell struggles. (which wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world) We signed Jenkins to platoon with Werth to make up Rowand’s production, which is fine, but we have not accounted for the fact that Pat Burrell might not repeat what he did from July on for all of next season.

But after thinking about it and reading what others have written here, I realized I made a mistake. I was suggested signing Bonds before I remembered that Kris Benson, Steve Trachsel, and David Wells are still unsigned. If I had remembered that earlier, I never would've suggested looking into replacing Snelling with Bonds. I overlooked the fact of how much more important it is to add crappy pitchers as insurance to replace our Eaton/Durbin/Durbin/Blackley combination of crap than to even suggest having insurance for our LF, #5 hitter, and only viable option to protect Howard. I also forgot that Pat Burrell has been consistent year in and year out and has never been known to follow up a good year with a bad one.

[J. Weitzel]

Everyone is making excellent points on Perez, including ae and the reliability issue, and MG and his declining stuff. It's Feb. 3 and besides Lohse, most everything is bottom barrel, including Perez. I'd prefer Trachsel myself, because you know what to expect there and the No. 5 spot would basically be set and stable. I have a feeling he wants no part of CBP because his name hasn't come up at all.

Agree with MG: The writing is on the wall with Eaton. It's looking more and more like he's not in the running. The Rule 5 pick is a longshot. And Durbin, frankly, is needed just as badly for the bullpen.

As much as Perez appears to be fading, he's another option with experience, and relatively young, and as Dull said, in a desperate situation to salvage his career. If they spend even a single cent more, it MUST be on pitching.

I wouldn't have the same level of opposition to this signing as many of you have, especially if he could be had for a minor league deal, which I have serious doubts about. Frankly, I closed the book on the off-season with the Feliz signing, so anything else feels like a bonus.

[clout]

Jack: Perez had 2 good years, Clement 3. Their career ERA+ is close, but Clement wins there too: Clement 96, Perez 94. Clement is better.

[clout]

Bob asks, "just like when people were complaining about the feliz signing i ask, how would signing odalis perez hurt?"

Well, Bob, for one thing there's a limit on the number of players who suck that you're allowed to carry on your roster.

[clout]

Talking about ways to get more production out of LF on the Phillies is like standing next to your million dollar house as it is fully engulfed in flames, and noting that your rosebush is singed.

If the Phillies don't upgrade their bullpen, they will not make the playoffs, even if they sign Bonds. And folks, I'm sorry, but replacing Myers with Lidge is NOT an upgrade. It is a lateral move at best for the team which last year had one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

[bay_area_phan]

Diehard: The premise of your "sign Bonds" argument is that Burrell's 2008 production might be less than we all hope/expect. The same could be said of anyone, including Chase Utley & Cole Hamels. But, when you plan for a season, you've got to make reasonable projections about how your players will perform. In the case of Burrell, those projections couldn't be easier since his numbers are absolutely remarkable in their similarity from year-to-year -- -- except for the occasional year when he out-performs those typical numbers.

[Jon]

The Phils just need to suck it up and bring Lohse back. I wouldn't even care if they signed Benson. Perez just flat-out sucks.

It is out-right ridiculous that a team who FINALLY made the playoffs after a 14 year absence, has even the slightest bit of interest in the trash pile that Odalis Perez has become.

[Andy]

there's a limit on the number of players who suck that you're allowed to carry

clout -
Is that a MLB rule or a Bill James one?

[Andy]

diehard:
Over a season long period, few players end up as consistent as Burrell. He will hit 28 - 32 HRs. He will drive in 90 - 110 runs. He will bat .255 - .280. He will walk 100 times. His OPS+ will be in the 120 neighborhood. He will crush the friggin Mets. And he'll drive the women wild.

It's what he does.

The only way to stop him from doing those things would be to platoon him with an option who might not do as well.

[Andy]

Jon:
I agree.

I do not like Lohse as a #3. But as a #5 he is so much better than any of the reclamation projects slated for ST that (shot of a trade) (yeah, right) there are no other palatable options.

[clout]

If Barry Bonds plays this season it will be as a DH in the AL.

[Morty]

Burrell will also pay cab fare for women to drive to the closest Planned Parenthood the next morning.
/morty

[Jon]

With the Odalis money, I'd rather the Phils address the bullpen and go after Seanez. If they are still concerned with the #5 spot, sign Benson or Chacon (who is flexible as a starter or reliever).

[Jon]

Andy, Lohse is the best option, but also the most expensive. As much sense as he makes, Phils management seems bent on letting him walk (even if it is to the Muts).

[diehard]

The manner in which Burrell gets to his numbers I see as the problem. With Rowand gone, if Burrell isn't hitting there is zero reasons why teams will throw Howard a pitch in the strike zone. If its not Bonds who is signed then I would feel much more comfortable with another player on the team who could hit 5th in case he struggles/injured and I don't know who else that player would be.
And as far as Burrell being consistent year in and year out, why were the Phillies/fans wanting to get rid of him so bad before last year. Then he puts up the same overall numbers last year as in previous years, now we should keep him?
Pat Burrell is the key to the lineup this year, and with nobody else to hit behind Howard, he better hit. If he doesn't the only other player available would be Bonds and thats what Im trying to say. If we could've added another big bat and he played another position (CF,3B) I would be perfectly content going into the season with Pat Burrell in LF, but if he gets injured or struggles at all it completely changes the lineup.

[Andy]

Morty.
FOTFLMAO

touche.

[diehard]

By manner in which he gets his numbers I'm referring to having 3 good months and 3 bad months. During the bad months Howard won't see a strike.

[Tim in DC]

there's a limit on the number of players who suck that you're allowed to carry

clout -
Is that a MLB rule or a Bill James one?

Andy-

It's and MLB rule, and the limit is 40.

[Andy]

Tim.
Funny, man.

This blog (as that Mets troll said the other day) is the tits today.

[Tim in DC]

there's a limit on the number of players who suck that you're allowed to carry

clout -
Is that a MLB rule or a Bill James one?

Andy-

It's and MLB rule, and the limit is 40.

[Jeff]

Guys, do to popular demand, here is the next film:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkLOiYQobSw

[Tim in DC]

oops, sorry for the double post. Not quite sure how that happened. I'll just blame Eaton.