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Monday, January 07, 2008

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Based on nothing but gut, but I have a sneaky pheeling that Werth has a very nice season next year and his arbitration price will be a bargain.

They say he's recovered from the wrist thing ...

Good job by PG on this one - Werth played a key role in the stretch drive, surprising a lot of us.

That's kinda what i'm thinking-his wrist injury is behind him, he's shown he can hit the ball when healthy and he hits in a great park with great lineup. Like most, I was really down on him for the first half of the season last year-"Werthless", etc. He stepped up. I'm not saying he'll be MVP, though.

I see that Cashman will probably be pushed out after next year.

Its debatable the work he's done in the past few years but he did fleece us on the Abreu deal and has built up the Yankee farm system pretty well.

I'd love (but don't expect) him to replace Gillick.

BedB, until he came back from the DL. the criticism of Werth was warranted, more or "less". He had hit horribly up to that point.

Alex, where did you hear Cashman is on the way out?

AWH-- I read where "Hank and Hal" Steinbrenner have diminished Cashman's power. They now have final say on all moves. Didn't see that he was "on his way out" , however

AWH: I believe I saw a piece of MLBTR about Cashman, and that there was speculation that he wouldn't return after next season because his deal will be up. Says it has something to do with Hank and Co. reducing his (Cashman's) say so. Go figure.

you got it mike....

Took the words right out of my mouth.

I'll put money down on a career season in 2008 from Werth. Which could be .295, 25 HR, 85 RBI or so.

malcolm-- no way he has enough at-bats to hit 25.. If he has 350AB.. look for 18-20 HR tops

Malcolm: Werth won't be starting vs. RHP unless someone gets hurt.

Don't forget, Werth is an above average defender with a plus arm. He's tall and runs reasonably well (24 SB vs. 4 CS in his career). Great deal for the Phillies.

For what it's Werth, he never approached a .295, 25 HR, 85 RBI season as a minor leaguer. His best season was .257, 18 HR, 82 RBI in 2002 at Syracuse.

Werth was arguably the nicest surprise on the Phils last year (besides Kendrick) but let's not go overboard. .295 AVG 25 HR? Ridiculous.

I bet that Werth falls off a bit offensively this season but still is a valuable resource to the Phils in a couple of different roles.

clout-- a little off-topic.. Do you think Theriot is a lock to start at SS for the Cubs? at least to start the year?

Remember, Werth was the fourth or fifth OF last year, and the defensive sub for Burrell was more often Bourne. This year, he's the third or fourth OF, and probably the first defensive sub in the outfield when he doesn't start. Come to think of it, he might be the first option as a pinch runner off the bench, too. I'm predicting 400 ABs, at least. God, please help Cholly figure out the double switch this offseason.

Negron was a Met 6 year free agent.

If they can get .280/12-15/50-55 out of Werth in 350 AB's, with an .800 OPS or better along with plus defense, $1.7 Mil. is an absolute steal.

Rob: Yes. Cedeno can't hit and his glove isn't enough better than Theriot's to offset the gap on offense.

Someone had told me that the Cubs were looking elsewhere for more power to replace Theriot.. I hadn't heard anything about that...

I was so excited about the Werth signing that I took a break from the campaign trail today.

Go Phils and Vote Obama (me)!

Werth was extremely lucky last year and that likely was his career year.

AWH-right, he wasn't recovered from his injury in the 1st half.

i wish we had at least a club option on a 2nd yr, incase he explodes and gets a huge deal in FA next yr

BB: Some of us won't believe he's recovered until he plays a full season without reinjuring that wrist.

On an entirely unrelated note, is anyone buying Roger Clemens' BS? I guess that tips my hand, but I'm actually more upset now that he's making these over-the-top denials. "A third ear growing out of my forehead" indeed. Nobody is that ignorant about steroids. Just as I don't believe a word of it when players say, "I never saw or heard a thing about it," I don't believe it when the denials get too fervent. I remember Rose, and I remember thinking even a guy as arrogant as Rose wouldn't be as stupid as... well, as it turns out he was.

See, I live in a world where Geoff Jenkins gets injured in May. It's Phillies world.

Also, love the new Mandel-bag, where he lets us in on his notorious drinking habits (and his love of the freakin' Steelers possibly.)

"I didn't see Moyer going nuts in the crowd, as I was busy getting "ready" to attend the Steelers' game at Heinz Field."

Love it when generic MLB beat writers try to be cool! (Of course, I know one of the Mets MLB beat writers, and he's 'cool.' But whatever.)

Malcolm: Where do you find Mandel's blog?

It's his mailbag (thus Mandel-bag) on the Phils site.

Some of you guys don't believe the sky is blue.

BedBeard: Some days it's gray.

And some days it's red and some days it's purple...why...it's like a rainbow....maybe the Phils will find their pot of gold at eh end of one in 2008.

#6 might get the extension he's looking for if they find a pot of it.

Of course, if the Mets get Santana it will be a chamber pot that's found.

BedBeard:
In the PG school of GM acquisition, the light over the desired player is always blue.

Alby, we're in total agreement.

Clemens is basically "doubling down".

By this time he has had extensive discussions with his attorneys to plot out their strategy.

Here's the show: There is no physical evidence to implicate Clemens (needle with DNA, failed urine test, etc.), so it's basically McNamee's word against his.

This lowers the stakes. What I mean by that is absent any evidence other than McNamee's word that he used steroids, it is unlikely that Clemens could be convicted in a court of law for perjury. So, he can basically lie to Congress under oath, and lie on the stand during the law suit he filed.

That's why it took so long for him to mount such a strident and agressive defense. His legal team was analyzing and evaluating the downside of his basically coming out and denying it to the end.

IMO, if he was really clean he would have gone nuts publicly the minute the Mitchell Report implicated him. That very day. He didn't because he circled the wagons with his lawyers to weigh his options and strategize.

I have to give him credit for this well orchestrated and rehearsed denial, but it rings hollow upon analysis.


AWH: Good post. One question Mike Wallace didn't ask is, why would you go to your conditioning coach for an injection of lidocaine? How many personal trainers administer prescription anti-inflammatories? Wouldn't it be smarter to have the team physician or your personal doctor do this? I mean just to be on the safe side? If you were looking for an anti-inflammatory on a sports injury wouldn't you go to your sports medicine guy? They'd do it with no problem. So why go to a non-medical guy? What's the valid reason for avoiding the doctor? Unless, of course, the conditioning guy has something the doctor won't give you.

http://hamareasports.blogspot.com/

Another Phillies blog!
interesting issues discussed

Thanks, AWH. It's always nice to have a good, logical argument on hand to back up my prejudices. I just never liked him, but I admit I was biased from the start -- he's from Texas.

That Clemens interview today was pretty pathetic. Kind of get a pretty good picture of a true person that Clemens is - a big-mouth, eco-centric buffoon who belittles those who question him.

Lidocaine isn't exactly Sodium Pentathol folks. Its a pretty standard Pharmecutical thats prescribed to hundred of millions of people. It comes in many forms, an injectable form just happpens to be one of them. Why bother with a doctor when you can have pretty much anybody do it.

But of course, I don't believe it was lidocaine, just like i don't believe pitchers get BETTER after the age of 38. I also don't believe that the Yankees and Astros would have continued to pay the Rocket the gross sums of monies he demanded, had they both not known he was juicing.

What pisses me off about the Steroids Scandal most of all, is the OWNERS and MANAGERS are getting a pass on this.

It was like when Enron's CEO tried to claim he didn't know what the accountants he was paying were doing. He was the CEO-He knew what was happening and was completley happy they were doing it.

They HAD TO have known WHO WAS DOPING and WHO wasn't. And Bud Selig can cry me a river, after he explains, with a polygraph, that he wouldn't have done anything, legal or illegal, to get fans back into baseball after the strike.

A Roided up Sosa/McGwire dog and pony show was the form they chose. Either way...it all stinks.

At least we can all take solace in the fact that no matter what, the phils still would have sucked, even if every Rico Brogna and Ricky Botallico on the team, was on the juice.

We still have our Pride Dammit! .

I loved Jayson Werth's gutsy performances late in the season, how he got fired up, swiped 2nd and 3rd, but let's not fool ourselves and think that the man is going to breakout for 25 homeruns...c'mon now.

anonymous, why go through the trouble of obtaining the lidocaine illegally (no one has claimed Clemens had a 'script') and doing it in your apartment when you can have the team doctor or trainer do it right in the training room?

But you're right. The owners and managers should not get a free pass. I'd love to have Dodgers' management get subpoenaed and have to answer questions as to why they didn't do anything when they found out LoDuca was juicing. Oh, that's right...they traded him when they found out he STOPPED.

MG, one of the writers on foxsports.com had a great article about Clemens basically saying he had the personality of a bully - BEFORE he responded to the Mitchell Report. Yesterday Clemens proved him right.

What I like about Werth is his all-around skills. Surpising speed, fine outfielder, good arm, can play all three OF positions. Actually, with Victorino's howitzer and exellent play in right last season I'd be tempted to 'speriment with Werth in center, a kind of Dale Murphy throwback, but the Jenkins signing kinda stymies that. Still hoping Werth gets at least 400 AB.

SWH, stop stealing my initials!

The posters who seem sad that Werth isn't going to play everyday and are hoping for an injury (to Jenkins? to Burrell?) so he gets 400 or more ABs all need to do this: Look up his career OPS+ vs. RHP. Please do yourselves a favor. Thank you.

I guess Werth-less is now Werth-$1.7 Million. That's a lot of money for a platoon player, but I guess I'm living in the past as far as salaries go. Ryan Howard is werth a lot more than $1.7 Million. How much will he get? What will PG peg as Howard's werth?

On the Clemens thing, it's all over the media here in Houston. His press conference was broadcast live on the local news radio stations and it was all legal mumbo jumbo. He's guilty of juicing and everyone knows it. His lawsuit will shut up his trainer and it becomes a "He said, She said" story. The local Houston radio is not sympathetic to the home boy, they're looking at his performances back to his Toronto days. Clemens is now Texas BBQ, on the slow roast media rotisserie.

From Rotoworld:
"FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal says there are indications the Orioles and Mariners are closer to terms on an Erik Bedard deal.

Rosenthal believes the Mariners are willing to give up Adam Jones, Jeff Clement and third baseman Matt Tuiasosopo for Bedard. The Orioles, though, could prefer Tony Butler, Chris Tillman or Carlos Triunfel as the third player. The two pitchers might be put on the table, but we doubt the Mariners would part with Triunfel, probably not even if Clement were taken out of the deal. Clement would likely move to first base if sent to Baltimore. Some believe it's where he belongs anyway."

Is it me, or does the Jones, Clement, Tuiawhatever offer seem sorta, um, "light" for Bedard? If that's what the O's are willing to take, should not the Phils be taking a fresh look at what they might be able to package off to Bal'more?

Andy: Clement is the best catcher prospect in baseball and Jones is what Golson would be if he had a clue. That said, I agree that's not enough for one of the best lefthanders in the game, a guy likely to be a stud for the next 5 years at least. By the way, either Clement or Jones would rank as the #1 position prospect in the Phils system (and probably #1 overall). The Phils have nothing remotely close to those two so I'm not sure how they could top the offer without including major leaguers.

Regarding Clemens and Lidocaine.

Lidocaine is not an anti-inflammatory, it's a numbing anesthetic, all of us have probably had it administered when we go to the Dentist. Now here is the fun part. When you go to the Dentist, where does he inject the lidocaine? In your mouth of course! Lidocaine is a LOCAL anethetic. If you inject it into your butt, it will just make your butt numb and do absolutely nothing for your joints! So, what would be good to inject into a large muscle? Let's see? How about a Steroid! Clemens is lying and it's getting obvious now.

clout -
I actually was thinking major leaguers. I know we still love Vic, but something like Vic, Cardenas and, say, Harman - toss in a very young pitching possibility like Bastardo - it's at least comparable. I guess the question I'm asking is if the Orioles continue to look to trade Bedard, and the price seems closer to what the Phils could do, at what point should it be revisited?

And yeah, I would lead with Victorino and accept the possibility that the Phils might be a little weaker in the line-up and in the field if they could have three legitimate starters at the beginning of the rotation. Bedard would make them real contenders in a way that Victorino will not.

Still, you're probably right. Even Vic is not enough to swing that deal.

In re: Clement, however, I gotta see some more info, cause his B-Ref numbers didn't jump off the page at me. And if Bal'more would shift him to 1B, then he's no longer the best catcher prospect.

Tbone -
Maybe Clemens was getting the Lidocaine because, for him, all of those guys in the clubhouse and press corps were just pains in the ass.

Andy,

That's gotta be the post of the day!

Hi All,
Avid Phillies fan from across the pond here. And not just a Phillies fan, but an actual die hard Pat Burrell fan. I like the way he represents philadelphia sports - mediocre and frustrating at times, introspective, occasiony outstanding, to whom when (if!) victory comes it is as much relief as exhilaration. i've liked the guy for many years since early in his career i watched him ground out softly in a pressure situation to a chrorus of boos, run out the ground balll-hard-nevertheless, and then curse himself out as he headed back to the dugout. my kind of player. in fact, i even have an idea for a pb player's fan group for the 700 levelists. it would be just one guy dressed completely anonymously, clapping politely and waving a generic banner that just says something like 'Baseball' or 'Go Team' on it. The title of the fan group would be the equally generic 'Pat's Fan Group'. But, I dont think people would get the irony and maybe even view it as some sort of insult.

On to the question: what are the chances that this guy would be back after this year? Let's say he has a stellar year - an all-star year even. Do players agree to lower contracts? Would the phillies consider him for what was unthinkable before - a top money contract again? Or in all likelihood a good year by pat just going to get him on a faster train out of here.

Also, i am not 100% of his status at the end of this year. Do the phillies have options on him for after this year or would it basically be renegotiate from scratch?

there's nothing id like to see more than pat burrell win the WS and break the championship drought. then again, the last player that i pulled for like this was lindros, which sort of gives away my penchant for tragic characters (though by the end of the lindros thing i had lost sympathy for him).

Tbone: I think that is the first post I have ever read that employed dental anasthetic application. Good observation. That had not occured to me, but it is true. I don't remember the specific reason that Clemens claimed that Mcnamee injected lidocaine in his butt, but if the reason was to reduce joint inflamation, that is not a good reason. Combining that fact with the fact that Clemens recieved the injection from a person who does not have a medical degree (Clemens denies that he knew this), and it is very fishy. Another key point is that Clemens claims that he never puts anything in his body that he does not keenly aware of its contents. If that is true, then why would you 1.) Let anyone other than a medical professional administer the medication 2.) Allow the person injecting you to supply the medications without any research into its contents. You would think that a guy so concerned with what goes into his body would at a bare minimum, supply the medications to a non-medical professional who is administering the drugs. Basically, Clemens is just creating another source of denial. If in fact it is proven that McNamee did administer steroids via Clemens keister, then Clemens can always deny that he knew what was being injected (Although this is directly contrary to his statements of scrupulous knowledge of the products going into his body). Someone should do some research on the affects of steroids and HGH on the brain because Clemens sounds like an idiot. His representatives are not adequately preparing him or there are too many lies to hold in place because the amount of contradictory statements is mind boggling.

Pat Burrell's Contract is up this year Dickie Thon, you can see it here.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/philadelphia-phillies_18.html

The market has come up to what he is being paid. He does like to play in Philadelphia. We would have to sign him again, he can be a free agent. Most believe he will go to an AL Team to be able to DH, because of the bone spurs in his foot which were operated on, have slowed him.

I think a lot a fans would like to see him resign if he does well this year. He had matured these past 3 years and really works the count and is able to take walks.

Here is hoping he will stay.

the next GM is Amaro. don't bother to speculate about anybody else.

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