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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

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It's fitting that I am the first person to comment on this thread- No More No-Hit...music to my ears!!!

From millions to minor league non-roster invite...ouch!

I was listening to The Fan radio in Bismarck, ND, online and heard that Chris Coste will be interviewed during the 11:00 (central time, 12:00 eastern) hour.

You can listen live here;
http://www.fan710.com/main.html

Unlike Elvis, Nunez will not produce many hits in Nashville.

writing about Howard, Keith Law says "You don’t need an economics degree and an MBA to realize that voluntarily overpaying for your inputs is a rather simple recipe for failure."

but since they're the Phillies, everything they do is wrong. AWH told me so.

First time poster. Commenting on the last thread, with JMARR's post about comparing this season's rotation and bullpen vs. last season: The Brad Lidge trade was more about moving Myers back into the rotation than it was about acquiring a closer. Frankly they could also have gone after Francisco Cordero to be their closer, instead they went with a more economical move and traded their 4th outfielder.

The Phillies rotation is much stronger with Myers in it and Lidge doesn't appear to be much of a downgrade, if he's a downgrade at all (Myers getting hurt for 2 months definitely must be factored in). I agreed with Gillick when he said Myers was better than all of the free agent pitchers out there (except maybe in Kuroda's case but he had no interest in pitching on the East Coast).

Let's also not forget we didn't have Romero last year. Will he be as good as he was in '07? Definitely not. But considering how expensive the market is for reliable relievers, is his ERA is a high 3/low 4 it's still a good signing.

Good riddance. One player the Phils won't possibly miss.

Endy Chavez rule:

I bet Nunez hits .340 with 2 HR and 14 RBI during his limited time in Milwaukee.

Nunez wouldn't hit .340 in a softball league.

... With a Titanium Fungo bat in Coors Field

Something just seems right about seeing Nunez go to a team with the old fashioned logo.

If ever there was a player who was born to play in the no-power 70s and 80s, it was Nunez.

I hate to say good riddance, because Nunez seemed like a nice guy and had some talent...but...

Don't know if anybody saw, but this is the latest from Jon Heyman at cnnsi.com. Another commentator saying that the Mets might be leading the Santana sweepstakes.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/01/23/scoop.Jan23/index.html?eref=T1

I'll say it for you then KDon- goodbye and good riddance No-Hit Nunez!!!

Don't go smashing my joyous mood with rumors of Santana coming to the Mutts...damn you!

Back to last thread where they say Phils losing Geary makes the relief pitchers worse.
Geary had only a few good outtings. You got to remember he was sent back to the minors 2 or 3 times during year because he was pitching lousy. Geary sometimes gave you one good inning but next inning he got hit. I myself will not miss him

I think Geary got overused in 2006, hampering his ability last year. He'll do better in Houston.

Geary was a good pitcher. He was paid basically the minimum, and performed as well as most of the $2-4M relievers that circulate on the FA market.

If we didn't know the name, and only saw the stats, he is exactly the kind of pitcher this board would be screaming for every off-season.

think Nunez was more of a '60s-'70s throwback. c.f. Bobby Wine, A(urelio)-Rod, Enzo Hernandez, Hal Lanier...you could have yourself a long career as a nonentity at the plate.

Ae, that time stretched out into the 80s too:

You don't remember:
(549 career OPS)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bellira01.shtml

or:
of course, former manager:
(620 career OPS)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bowala01.shtml

Have to love the days when a slick SS with a 689 OPS could so this:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1978.shtml#NLmvp

Why is everyone so sure of Ryan Howard's imminent decline? Please, don't invoke the scientific method to justify the "players like Howard" rationale, because there's nothing "scientific" about a hypothesis that depends the purely subjective concept of similarity. Scientists don't jump to conclusions based on unrelated, past results.

Bill James's primary contribution to baseball was shifting the emphasis away from subjective scouting assessments, toward cold statistical facts. Those players named by BP weren't helpful in predicting Howard's numbers, so how could they help in predicting his decline?

Any tentative theory of statistical induction, such as BP's "Fat Guy" theory, is by its very nature open to abberration. If we've learned anything about Ryan Howard in the past 3 years, its that he differs from the norm.

Now's the time for the Phillies to get a bargain. If they disrespect Howard even more in an effort to save a couple bucks, he'll be less motivated to help them on the field. I'm aware of how MLB salaries work, and why the Phils don't need to pay him now, but its in everyone's best interest to do so.
Howard would happily sign a 7 year/$60 million dollar deal tomorrow; a deal which would look like a bargain after another couple 50 hr 150rbi years. You can think about trading him in his contract year of 2014. You'd probably close to equal value trading him then, as you would after a mediocre season overshadowed by a bitter contract dispute. Not to mention, we'd have more 6-7 more years to watch the great power hitter Philadelphia has ever seen.

kdon, it's true...but by the '80s most teams realized you couldn't actually start those guys. Aurelio Rodriguez started 150+ games in 7 straight seasons! Bobby Wine had 400+ PA five times! (and he won a Gold Glove back before it turned into the Silver Slugger II.)

as far as dubious award achievements, I think Marty Marion beats out Bowa--a .686 OPS and he actually WON the MVP. but this guy has to take the cake. okay, he was only an All-Star and not an MVP finalist. but a 37 OPS+ is just unreal.

"Howard would happily sign a 7 year/$60 million dollar deal tomorrow"

That's simply wrong.

Read the papers:

" The Phillies and Howard's agent, Casey Close, discussed a long-term deal last spring. Howard's salary matched St. Louis' Albert Pujols for the highest base total in a one-year deal for a player not eligible for arbitration.

"Once again, the Phillies are using Pujols' contract as the model for Howard. Their offer of $7 million matches the Cardinals' offer to Pujols in 2004 for the largest amount a team has offered a player who is arbitration eligible for the first time. Pujols and St. Louis eventually agreed to a $100 million, seven-year deal. Howard could get a similar contract. "

http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10592576/cbsnews

Utley settled for 7/65, and there is (mark it) ZERO chance Howard signs for less.

Howard would happily sign a 7 year/$60 million dollar deal tomorrow; a deal which would look like a bargain after another couple 50 hr 150rbi years.

you can't seriously believe that.

if the Phillies want seven years, Howard's not answering the phone unless they're talking $100M.

Ok, ae, only 'cause I'm bored:

89 WS SS: 655 OPS (Gallego), 616 (Weiss)
88: 502 (Griffin)
87: 740 (Gagne)
86: 539 (Santana)
85: 500 (Sheridan)
84: 830 (Trammell)
83: 889 (Ripken, of course!) DeJesus (658)
82: 653 (Smith)
81: 512 (Russel)
80: 622 (Bowa)

Wine = Belliard (Belliard actually has a worse career OPS!!!), so that's a push, but Rodriguez posted a *career* OPS better than 4 (or 5, depending on who you give 89 to) World Series winning shortstops.

BTW- Prior to the steroid era, the power numbers of ALL PLAYERS began to decline once they reached their mid-30s. Thats why players call the years leading up to then their "prime". This brilliant correlation of age with a gradual decline in physical performance is truly groundbreaking work, but if I may be so bold, I'd like to offer an additional finding: this "trend" applies to everyone. Everyone slows with age, not just "large-bodied" guys, but herculian and gnomish players too, as well as rogue, red mage, warrior, thief, cleric, and everyone else. One could easily find evidence that short players decline with age, and so on, because everyone does.

Inbetween Now and 1984 only 2 WS winning shortstops had OPS's above 800 (Jeter and Tony Fernandez)

Taken in with the information above, it looks like we've been talking about trading the wrong MVP (j/k)

well, kdon, comparing Aurelio Rodriguez to shortstops is pretty misleading. there's a pretty huge difference between those positions in terms of defensive importance.

I'll concede that offensive nonentities at shortstop continue to exist today (say, Royce Clayton), but the days of a guy like Rodriguez playing in nearly 2,000 games at third over 17 seasons are gone. fortunately.

ok maybe 7/60 wouldn't cut it, but I don't think they'd need to go to 7/100 either...

Besides, even at 7/100, 14mil/year still isn't bad for a top 5 offensive player. I mean- Aaron Rowand makes that much!
The only hitters who can provide his level of performance earn much more. I still think they'd work arbitration figures into the deal and lower his average salary. The Phils could probably keep Ryan Howard in town for Pat Burrell/Bobby Abreu money. Sure, those deals were ill-advised, but those two aren't close to the player Howard is.

No-Hit Nuni... What a worthless investment... Beat it ya bum!

Geary certainly struggled early in the year but I bet that was due to a heavy workload in '05 and '06. I am willing to is effective in Houston this year if he isn't overexposed.

Put it this way - would you rather see Geary out there in the 6th inning or the likes of Durbin, Condrey, etc.? That is where the Phils will miss the 50-60 innings that Geary gave them just as they missed Fultz's averages numbers last year.

This signing might be the most exciting off-season move from my perspective, as it GUARANTEES that Nunez will not be in blood stripes next year!!!! I was starting to sweat with each passing day, dreading that I might read about Nuni signing a minor league deal with the Phightins.

Good luck to Nunez. Despite being an automatic out he definitely helped the team defensively and I remember Nunez stopping some opposing rallies when Jamie Moyer was on the mound. He made a lot of good plays. Hopefully Bruntlet can replace his glove or we can sign Feliz for a year. I am glad to see Geary gone, he brought nothing.

Fair enough ae. Since we had mentioned Bowa and Marion, and I knew Wine was a SS, I didn't realize the original A-Rod was at 3b.

But hell, the guy finished in the top ten in extra-base hits...twice!

Comparing him to Nunez isn't fair...and, BTW, my original point about no-hit players in the 80s stands ;-)

Kdon: You have a blind spot when it comes to Geary. As far as I know you're the only poster here who ever thought the guy had the talent to be a playoff caliber setup man. The reality is that he's an average middle reliever.

Perdiction: Nunez will not go north with the big league team at the end of spring training.

clout, we agree on Geary.

BUT, name more than one average middle reliever on the Phillies staff right now.

Nunez's defense is completely overrated. He can't play SS anymore and he was only an above average defender at best at 3B using just about any defensive stastistic out there. I don't understand why people act like he was Scott Rolen/Mike Schmidt defensively.

I don't think Nunez is coming north, either. I don't see any way he outplays the other utility candidate in ST, and I have no idea who that player even is.

Jason: It's Craig Counsell. Nuni is fighting Joe Dillon to be the first backup utility guy called up if an infielder gets hurt.

Yup. Nunez has no shot.

Counsell? No shot. Nunez might never appear in a MLB game again if that is the case.

The thing that drove me nuts about Nunez is that he didn't even do the fundamental things well. Speed issue aside, Nunez couldn't even be counted on to lay down a sac bunt or move over a hitter if he was a PH. No reason to employ a guy who can only play two defensive positions and doesn't bring another single useful attribute to the table.

Gas Can Gordon? Gas Can Lidge? Nope Gas Can Geary feels better. My guess is that Lidge even in a year like 2006/2007 will be better than Geary. I still think the trade to give up Victorino clone and Geary for Lidge is still a great trade.

I do agree that Charlie over-used Geary but c'mon guys like Geary are a dime a dozen...

USA Today's Sports Weekly is reporting that the Orioles are asking Michael Costanzo to report with the catchers for spring training.

They also featured the Phillies in this week's issue. The prospect list will not surprise anyone here. They also report, a la Clout, that Gordon is the set-up man going into the season, but don't cite anything definitive for that information. We all look forward to what you'll report from baseball town JW!

Six years, $31M for Troy Tulowitski. What do you all think of this?

JW, did you get invited to media day? You should have.

ae, I just caught your post above. Please show me where I wrote "they're the Phillies, everything they do is wrong".

Because you cannot, please refrain in the future from childishly misrepresenting my position.

Comparing Geary to Lidge is ridiculous and people are missing the point. The point is that Geary is a better option than what the Phils are going to throw out with the back end of their bullpen. I would be shocked if the likes of Condrey, Durbin, etc give the Phils even close to league average numbers for relievers.

Mike H - smart move by the Rockies!

Tulowitzki gets financial security...the Rockies get him at below what he probably would make the last couple years of the contract.

MG, correct.

That was my point above when I asked clout if the Phillies had more than one middle reliever who was league average. The only one who even qualifies as average is Madson, assuming you categorize him as middle relief. Condrey is prone to the occasional meltdown, which hurts his stats, but I still wouldn't view him as league average.

The rest are all 'a hope and a prayer'.

Nunez is the Brew Crew's insurance in case an infielder gets injured. That's all.

Good luck to Abe. Nice guy...no hit.

The fact is, the Lidge trade and Romero re-signing have masked the reality that this season's bullpen will probably be even worse than last year's. Unless they make some kind of trade to improve the bullpen, you can almost guarantee that they won't make the playoffs.

Not to beat a dead horse into the ground, but Geary actually pitched pretty well for the Phils down the stretch in August and Sept. I am positive he would have been on the postseason roster instead of the likes of Alfonseca if he had been healthy.

Geary's workload in '06 was criminal and I am willing to bet he rebounds with a decent '08 season. In fact, my first preseason prediction is that Geary finishes the season with a better ERA and pitches more innings than Gordon.

Not to jump on the trashin' Abe bandwagon, but JW's comment about his uncanny rally-killing ability was on the mark. Nuney just didn't have any speed. For a lefty bat, I was amazed how long it would take him to get to first. Course, he couldn't pull a ball to save his life so all the DP's were 6-4-3 variety....
Also, agree Phightins will miss Geary. He was the kind of gutsy reliever who would come in and dare to throw three straight heaters (surprising velocity, I might add) past Andrew Jones. Sometimes, like last year, he got burnt. But I liked his 'go after em' approach.

I personally will miss Gas Can Geary, he was a source of much pleasure beyond his performance on the mound. We're working on an ode to him over on my blog.

AWH, you're priceless. accusations of "childish misrepresentations" coming from a guy who interprets a post about Boston's contracts as praise for the Phillies? yep, you got it.

I've been busy and out of the BL loop for the past few days. I'm glad to read that Nunez will be somewhere else besides Clearwater this spring. I'll need to check my blood pressure as I'm sure it's lower now that I can rest assured that No Hit Nuni is really gone. I wish him the best, but he has to be somewhere else, and now he is! I am happy. Now, if we can just get a starter and a third baseman.....

On Geary, I think he was an overused "one year wonder". I don't expect him to be much of a contributor for Uncle Wade's new team.

Here's some really bad news via Rotoworld:

"The Giants are no longer interested in signing Pedro Feliz."

I got a bad feeling about this.

Nunez is a career utility man, always has been, always should be. You put him in the field for his defense, not his bat. Which is precisely what he was used for last season. Any team that uses him as a starter is asking for trouble, but as a bench player? You can do worse. Problem was the Phillies overpayed for what they got (surprise surprise).

As for Geary, we're talking about a reliever with average stuff. He never had any kind of pitch that could blow away a hitter. Gordon has a fastball and curve. Madson has his change. To be a setup man, you have to have a great out pitch; Geary didn't. He was effective when his location and control was impeccable, which in '06 was the case. In '07, that was not the case. If he doesn't locate, he gets hammered.

That's why he was good down the stretch; the Phils sent him down to the minors to hammer out the kinks so to speak and he came back able to pitch. But the man's a career middle-reliver, period, no ifs ands or buts. Lidge, by contrast, is a bona-fide closer or setup man. We get a guy we can use as a closer, an utility defenseman who replaces Nunez for less than half the cost, and seriously bolster the rotation, and we only give up a middle reliever, our 4th outfielder, and a middling prospect who strikes out way too much? I'll take that deal any day.

"As for Geary, we're talking about a reliever with average stuff. He never had any kind of pitch that could blow away a hitter."

That's just it. It's not overuse as much as talent with Geary.

AWH: There really is no disagreement on the Geary issue. He is a major league average middle reliever. My only beef is with posters like kdon and others who portrayed him as a lot more than that.

His lifetime OPS of .798 vs. lefties is just not a number that an above-average reliever allows. His OPS of .744 vs. righties is beter, but again not elite.

Tom Gordon, by contrast, has splits of .672 and .690. Big, big difference.

JW: Exactly right!

Feliz will end up desperate LF-- (He's already scramblin' trying to get new agents to hammer out a 1 yr deal w/SF)That'll drive his price/# of years down..and..VOILA! He's Gillick's kinda guy...

clout, the SF Gate said today that the Giants submitted a 2-year deal to Feliz and he turned them down...

LF= Lake Fred, of course!

Feliz is an out making machine, both defensively and offensively. However, only one of them are a good thing. He was foolish to turn down a 2 year deal from SanFran.

Feliz's career numbers (pulled off MLB)
288/433/252 OBP/SLG/AVG

HR/RBI/SO/OBP/SLG/AVG last 3 years:

20/81/102/295/422/250 2005

22/98/112/281/428/244 2006

20/72/70/290/418/253 2007

Yeah, guy's a very poor hitter. Granted he's got pop in his bat, and they might need some right-handed power because Rowand left, but there's no way in hell he should bat anywhere higher than 7th or 8th in any lineup. His salary was 5mil/year with the Giants in 2007, and he'll want more, which he doesn't deserve at all.

Let some other suckers take flyer on him, though I can't imagine who might want him. If Gillick offers him what he made last year, that's too much.

If Feliz turned down a 2-year deal from the Giants, then he has as much difficulty with rational thinking as he does with hitting. It's the last week of January. Pitchers and catchers report in 3 weeks. Anyone who doesn't have a team at this point is in serious danger of not having one at all.

I'm betting the front office gets a last minute urge to address third base. Defensively, what they have now is inadequate and a deal to Feliz would probably round out their budget.

Dark horse prediction - Pedro Feliz will be having a press conference at CBP this time next week.

Just like last year though with Barajas, Feliz will be a bust and the Phils would have been better off signing another reliever and saving some cash flexibility for the trade deadline.

My point exactly JW.. He'll be pawned off to the media as a HUGE BARGAIN.i.e. "See how smart we were for waiting for the market to "settle" and therefore we got a steal"..

There aren't many buyers for players like Feliz, either. On contending teams, third base is typically filled. For free agent third basemen, Philadelphia must be at the top of the list.

The amazing thing is that the Phils really are down to a choice between Helms/Dobbs and Feliz.

Even factoring in Feliz's extraordinary defense, either one of these scenarios would likely give the Phils the worst production (offense + defense) in the NL.

Since I haven't hear a thing on Koskie since the Brewers declined his option in October, I'm assuming he won't be ready to start the season. Damn!

I'm working up some questions for today's Q&A. Interesting stat: Shane Victorino only had a .725 OPS at home last season. Kinda shocking.

MG on Nunez: "I don't understand why people act like he was Scott Rolen/Mike Schmidt defensively."

Because his colleagues at 3B fielded at a level rarely seen since the retirement of Dick Stuart, the original Dr. STrangeglove.

good luck in milwaukee nunez

I think Shane will continue to improve. I'm looking for a .280+ avg. 15+ hr, 45+ sb, 100+ runs and an OPS around .760.

OPS should have read .780, not .760

Carson: Did you ever get that steak dinner from Clout? You won that bet, correct?

No steak dinner from Clout. I told him he could have bought my kid a Phillies momento instead, but nothing...

I almost predicted Jimmy Rollins run total too. I said the outrageous # of 150, and was vehemently shot down, but he came close with 139, and I think that total would have been higher had not for the time he spent in the ill-advised 3-hole in the lineup.


Nunez doesnt have a shot. remember HGH and roids are banned from baseball.
Too bad he couldnt have stayed on them at least thru his time in Philly.

I seem to remember ol AlPujols endorsing Nunez when he came to Philly. hmmmm......

Feliz turning down a 2 yr deal can only mean he will be in Phils pin stripes this year. It may not be the most popluar move but it may happen. A 1 yr-deal + a player/team option. Can that be any worse than Helms? It means Dobbs goes to the bench which can only make the bench stronger. An who knows, maybe it's true that Helms will be sent packing for relief help although I can't imagine who we could get for him.

What about Crede? We love trading with Kenny Williams and if Crede is healthy, could be great on our team.

Nunezs' trademark double play grounder to short will not be missed! I can't think of another MLB'er in history who was as bad at hitting as he was...

I like Dobbs and believe that he can make a difference with this club.

Helms should be arrested for stealing his salary from the Phils!

If Helms is traded, the Phils will probably be content to just find a team that will take his salary ($2.9 million).

Still completely against signing Feliz. Besides defense and the occasional HR, he brings nothing to this team. Do the Phils really need another slow-footed, aging veteran who SLG percentage has been declining for the past couple of years? No. Even the Giants, a team desperate for offense, displayed minimal interest and that should speak volumes to you.

Helms actually did hit LHP pretty well last year. If Cholly would just platoon players in situations where he should (still don't understand why Cholly gave some many starts to Helms against RHP), then the Phils would get some decent production numbers out of 3B. The reason the numbers have been so bad the past 2 season was in large part to No-Hit. Plus, this team is only going to win if they outscore people again this year. Because the Phils refuse to upgrade their pitching, they are going to play in a bunch of slugfests again this year and need to score runs.

Crede is definitely available and will get moved before the start of spring training. He seems appealing on the surface and his salary (1 yr/$5.1 M) is in line with the Phils.

Granted I really haven't seen Crede play but if you look at the numbers I don't see a player who is much better offensively than Feliz. Plus, the White Sox are supposedly looking for something decent in return (e.g., Lowry from the Giants). Are the Phils willing to give up a few prospects including at leas one really decent prospect like Cardenas or Carrasco for Crede?

Crede would be my choice too. But if he's healthy, we probably wouldn't be the only team after him. Feliz is healthy where Crede may not be.

Lowry for Crede? Even Brian Sabean isn't that dumb.

I don't get support for Crede over Feliz. Aside from his career 06, he is clone of Feliz...low batting average and not much plate discipline.

Career OPS+:
Crede: 92
Feliz: 84

Considering that Feliz has more pop and is equal (if not better) defensively, I don't see why you would trade a top prospect for Crede when you can just sign Feliz.

Pedro Feliz wouldn't necessarily be our everyday 3B. Last year, Wes Helms showed that the David Bell clause no longer applies. Feliz's scouting report says he can struggle against RHP, so this could end up just being an upgrade to the platoon.
Since Feliz and Dobbs both play multiple positions, they'd only be an injury away from being on the field together.

I just like Dobbs in the lineup, especially against RHP. Dobbs has knack for keeping rallies alive, and the Phillies simply win when he's in the lineup. On the other hand, Feliz's rally killing tendencies have been well-documented...

I'll put it this way:
Feliz=(Dobbs+Helms)
Feliz>Helms
(Dobbs+Feliz)>(Feliz)

I know, I know, Feliz plays better 3B, and for that reason alone I'm completely opposed to the Phils signing him to a 1 year deal. I just know the Phils win games that Dobbs starts, and I like when they win games...

Feliz would be a horrible mistake. MG has it right, the Phils will have to win by scoring runs. Feliz's horrible OBP and ridiculous career 5% walk rate will kill rallys just as fast as No-Hit Nunez's groundballs ever did. Feliz is Nunie minus the ability to walk (Abe walked 10% in last 3 yrs) plus some power! Pat Burrell gets his ass booed constantly and he hits 30 HRs and at least walks all the time w/ a great OBP, can you even imagine the boos that will reign down on Feliz when he is batting .240 and Ks twice a game? Helms and Dobbs are in no way David Wright, or even Adrian Beltre, but they are cheap (and we're already paying 'em) and used in the platoon effectively (might be asking a lot) they could equal one average 3rd baseman (like Kevin Kouzmanoff or Ty Wiggington). Helms had a pretty horrendous year in '07, but his BABIP (.300) was below league avg. and his walk rate and walk/K were down from his career numbers. If we just see a little regression to the mean, Helms should have a better year. Dobbs on the other hand had a pretty solid year and besides the low contact rate it pretty much lines up with his career peripherals so you can expect more of the same. So, in summation, Helms back to respectable and Dobbs continuing what he started last year batting against pitchers they have positive splits against versus a guy with a career 3.3 Ks per every walk on a team with limited quality pitching in a small park... I'll take the 2 scrubs we already got any day of the week.

kdon: You don't think there's any difference between OPS+ of 92 and OPS+ of 84? Also, what's the basis for believing that Feliz is a near gold glover?

Before any malcontents start to believe this Howard falling apart hype:
per plate appearance.
HR/PA R/PA BI/PA 2B/PA BB/PA K/PA
2006 0.082 0.148 0.212 0.036 0.15 0.26
2007 0.073 0.145 0.210 0.040 0.17 0.29

Let's see, thats a 1% decrease in HR, 2% increase in walks and 3% increase in Ks.
Given the injury, the crazy overshifts, the elevated finesse on pitches he sees, I don't see that his sophomore slump was that spectacularly bad.
I think he comes to camp this year with something to prove and is again a strong MVP candidate.

You know last year when Phils signed Helms to be our third baseman, I believe most here thought it was as good as we could get. I myself saw him play in Florida and I thought he would be a good hitter in CBP. We at that time thought he would be a regular at 3rd and not be platooned. He started out horrible batting against both lefties and righties so that actually brought his average down considerable. Now if he platoons I am sure he will have a lot higher average with power this coming year. What I am saying forget Felix and lets go back to Dobbs and Helms with defense thrown in the late innings (naturally if we are winning)

Clout:

Yes, there is a difference between an OPS+ of 92 and 84. But do you think that difference is worth trading a top prospect like Carrasco? Go back and read the context of the comparison.

Your obviously being disengenous about why I think Feliz is a very good defender. I know you don't believe in defensive metrics, despite the fact that almost every major league team uses *some* version of zone rating or plus/minus, but I know you do know that Feliz does quite well in all of these.

If you don't want to believe in them, that is your prerogative, but don't pretend you don't know they exist.

Weren't/Aren't the Giants trying to get Feliz to try a different position?

Just checked out Feliz's hitting chart on MLB.com (see it here http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=150268&statType=1)

First thing that immediately sprang to mind: He's a pull hitter.

2nd thing that immediately sprang to mind: most of his ground outs were in double play territory (looks like Rowand's hit chart in that way actually)

3rd thing: he splits his ground outs/fly outs evenly, and it seems that roughly 30 of his 80 fly outs are deep in the outfield.

I'm getting that old sinking feeling. The guy is 32 years old, his prime is over, he's a dead-pull hitter who can't get a walk, AND he'll want more than 5mil/year? Uh-oh.

I don't care if his defense is good. It doesn't make up for his offense. Here's Helms' numbers last year, projected over the number of AB Feliz had (decimals rounded), assuming slight uptick in OBP/SLG

HR/RBI/SO/OBP/SLG/AVG
10/78/123/300/370/248

Worse in the power department and slightly worse in run production and SLG from Feliz:
20/72/70/290/418/253

Now, take Dobbs' numbers at Feliz's AB
17/95/115/330/450/272

Dobbs projects as a better 3B than both of them. Dobbs' numbers are almost entirely against right-handed pitching, so they may drop some next year, but it's still a good baseline. Now, here are Helms numbers against lefties projecting using Feliz's AB again (152AB total)
4/25/34/346/444/282

Combining these numbers together projected over Feliz's AB again you get:
21/120/149/334/448/275

Now, is that superior to Feliz's line? Yes, in the OBP/SLG/AVG portion. Do I think the platoon will net 120RBI's and 150K's? No. Not even 100RBI (K's might be in the 120-130 range though). But it's still a better line than Feliz's, AND we're not paying David Bell's salary again.

So Pat, if you're reading, DON'T DO IT!


I still believe the Phils should pursue Dallas McPherson. Even if he falters, a platoon of Dobbs and Helms is better than going everyday with No-Hit Feliz. Too bad the Phils don't seem to share this same view, which is a little bit surprising because he definitely would come cheaper than ole Pedro.

I've been a pretty strong supporter of the idea that we should not pursue Feliz - but something occurred to me this afternoon that has changed my mind.

Who are we on Beerleaguer going to fixate on as the biggest problem on the team this season? The biggest mistake made by Gillick? The one guy on the 25 man roster that draws all of the ire of Beerleaguer?

Barajas - Gone?
Gas Can - Gone?
(My Favorite) - Nunez - Gone?

Honestly --- we need Feliz or we have to hope Pat B. duplicates his .201 8HR pace through July 1st so we have someone to jump all over ....

Let's just sign Pedro and get it over with.

Godfather,

I don't think you will find anyone here who will argue that Feliz will *hit* better than Dobbs/Helms, especially if the latter two are platooned properly.

However, Feliz is a top 5 defensive 3B, while Helms and Dobbs are two of the worst.

Furthermore, if Cholly uses Bruntlett like he used Nunez (Moyer starts, defensive replacement), than those numbers will come down some. I don't think I can handle an entire season where Cholly is using 3 players for one position. It kills the bench.

But if Feliz is signed, Dobbs can do what he does best, which is be the number one PH off the bench.

Think of this way: when a RHP starts against the Phils (which, you know, happens a lot), the bench will most likely be:

Werth
Helms
Tagucgi
Bruntlett
Coste

That's bad.

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EST. 2005

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