Madson restoration among keys to upcoming season

Ryan Madson’s season was cut short July 29 when the iron-man reliever blew out his shoulder after seasons of abuse. The 27-year-old will look to reclaim the seventh inning.

Injuries happen anytime, but with Madson, one could see it coming. Considering the over-the-top delivery, the gradual wear and the fact that he had been heavily taxed immediately after his trip to the DL, a blowout was inevitable. Madson told reporters his shoulder had been bothering him a couple of days before the injury, but thought he could pitch through it. Although he felt a tear, the injury was diagnosed as shoulder soreness. If the Phillies had advanced to the NLCS, Mad Dog was expected to be available.

Looking back through the archives, I forgot about the Jayson Stark tidbit, reported the night after Madson’s injury, that said the Phillies had been trying to trade Madson. That's probably out of the question now. He’s eligible for his second arbitration and the time to trade him would have been earlier in the fall. Plus, they’re not in a position to deal out bullpen.

When things go badly for Madson, he suffers from equal parts bad command and limited repertoire (his lack of a third pitch hurts him more as a starter). I didn’t like what I saw from Madson early in '07 when he, along with the rest of the bullpen, blew several games. It might have been a case where the Phillies had the wrong man for the job.

His season was largely considered a disappointment, but his numbers actually compare favorably with previous seasons, including 2005. In 56 innings, he finished with a 3.05 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 43/23 K/BB ratio, including a very solid July before the injury. His total Win Shares actually stack up well with guys like Rudy Seanez, Matt Herges and Doug Brocail. I’ve always considered Madson to be an unlucky pitcher and I remember a couple games when he was burned on good pitches. Nevertheless, he's been around the block and experienced hitters know what to expect.

Madson is at his best when he’s assigned a clean seventh inning role. Mixing him into the eighth and ninth iframes, and fiddling with left/right matchups, is a little sloppy. With a rotation half-filled with six-inning pitchers, the seventh inning is a critical spot for Madson and the Phils. A healthy Mad Dog would go a long way in setting an early groove.

Comments

[elliott]

Is madson considered ready to go at this point? has he had any reported setbacks?

[J. Weitzel]

Haven't heard, and you won't hear. Last season, I was dying to know the status of Gordon. Between Madson, Gordon, Hamels, Myers, it's worth a winter update.

[GM-Carson]

Ryan Madson may very well be an unlucky pitcher, but dammit he pisses me off. I remember him blowing both of Cole Hamels first 2 MLB starts, then I remembering him losing both games to start this season. So yeah, that's unlucky, but it also means he's doing something wrong. I'd love nothing more than for him to come into this season settle into his role and pitch phenomenonally, but I don't have faith that will happen.

[Reed]

for better or for worse, he was our most dependable and effective reliver about a month before his season ending injury. I thought the loss of him was the nail in the coffin, but we all know how that turned out. I felt as if he regained his rookie form and more importantly for him, his confidence.

If he repeats his 2nd half showing (injury free) our bullpen is in a lot better shape than we think.

[Lake Fred]

I'm not ordering any Madson stock from Smith Barney. I don't have any faith in him. Trade him to Baltimore for Bedard.

I stumbled across this pricey item today: A 3 car Phillies HO train for the low (satire) price of $210 plus shipping. Here's the link: http://www.collectiblestoday.com/ct/product/prdid-48163.jsp?_baseball/_prod/_17/_/_6/_/_/_Y&endeca=true&abbr=hw

[Reed]

Howard headline on MLBTR

[Lake Fred]

In the last thread, MG wrote about Clement signing with St. Lou because of their pitching coach. Maybe the Phillies ought to dump Dubee and spend their money on hiring an attractive quality pitching coach to lure quality pitching to sign with the Phils. That would be a better spending of their money than dumping it on turds like Adam Eaton.

[Lake Fred]

I left a comment on one of the threads on Carson's site and saw comments from Sir Alden. So that's where he's been hiding!

[Reed]

I think Leo Mazzone is unemployed and I wouldn't mind him looking over Hamels, Outman, Savery, Drabek, Carrasco et al.

[J. Weitzel]

Rich Dubee isn't the problem.

[B-Mac]

Seems like Eric Chavez is on the market, wonder if he is on the Phils radar. Wonder what kind of prospects would have to be in the deal to make the deal work. Maybe something like Drabek , Madson and Jamarillo for him?

[Crazy Jon]

Madson's the perfect 7th inning guy, when healthy.
It's when they moved him to the 8th inning where he got psychologically screwed up.
Hopefully he returns to health and shores up the 7th inning for the Phils.

[MPN]

With the money left on Chavez' contract I wouldn't give Billy Beane anything more for him than a slightly used Majestic replica Phillies jersey, non-personalized. He's a huge health risk (3 surgeries this offseason!).

[GM-Carson]

Eric Chavez has good D and a plausible bat, but he's got over 30 mil coming to him in the next 3 seasons, so the A's would have to eat some of that contract and not want much in return for him- especially because of the injury woes.

[Dallas Greens Jock]

Also Chavez stats have been declining the last couple years. Since there hasn't been a Feliz VS. Helms/Dobbs arguement in awhile how about a Chavez VS Feliz VS Helms/Dobbs? I would live to read about it.

[Andy]

My question about Chavez would have to do with who's not on the Mitchell report. He played beside Tejada when Tejada was having his monster years and wasn't injury-prone til more recently. Without HGH he might be a fixture on the 60-day. (Conjecture of course.) That bein said, a healthy Chavez kicks crap out of Feliz in every respect.

He is, however, yet another LH bat.

[Gman]

JW, Dubee is most certainly a problem. No pitcher gets better under his guidance. I never see a guy struggle and say that he worked with Dubee and was fixed. He is every bit the problem Manuel is and them not firing him last year was a horrible decision. Manuel fought for him, because he's the only guy who agrees with how Manuel butchers the pen.

[Dave X]

I don't think anyone here would argue, that only from a offense/defense standpoint, that Chavez is well above Feliz and a Helms/Dobbs platoon. Whether the salary is worth it is another question, and you can be sure Oakland isn't eating any of it.

I also think Madson is a very useful reliever. He's a slight groundball pitcher who's basically average with strikeouts, walks, and HRs. Thats nothing special, don't get me wrong, but it does make him the 2nd best pitcher in our bullpen.

[jim]

the problem with madson is is head. he does not think out there. in his mind he can blow the ball by a hitter. he throws everything right over the heart of the plate. if he had better command and could paint the black he would be extremely effective.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Pitching coach is overrated.

[Mike]

BB: Were you referring to Dubee or the position in general?

[Mike Cunningham]

If that arbitration number is correct for Howard about $7M, how does that affect the entire budget?

Wouldn't it make sense to get him signed until a year after his expect free agent deal and save money this year? Something like 3 to 5M for 08 and then escalate.

I ask this before it turns into the folks who will think it will be more cost effective to trade Howard.
SCOTT LAUBER -- Huge raise on the way for Howard

[Mike Cunningham]

@Gman -- incorrect: Brett Myers.

Myers languished under Kerrigan.

[CJ]

What about Kyle Kendrick? Does Dubee get no credit for that miracle?

But like BB says, the pitching coach is generally overrated.

[kdon]

I think you can argue that Madson doesn't have good enough stuff, but this "he's ok for the 7th, not the 8th" stuff is silly.

His reputation for blowing games is inflated from Hamel's first start and opening day of '07 (and the latter was as much Myers's fault as Madson's).

I think if used properly, he'll be the second best pitcher in the pen next year, and possibly the best.

[Billy Mac]

I am with Gman and LF on the relative merits of Rich Dubee. Moyer is the unofficial pitching coach on the team by the way. All of the young pitchers give credit to Moyer not Dubee when it comes to approaching hitters and game plans. It is amazing Dubee kept his job when they jettisoned minor league coaches like Dancy, Bombard, and Varsho. Look how Lopes improved the running game. Leo Mazzone would help the Phillies.

[Mike]

From MLBTR:

"There are rumblings that the Astros are considering bringing Freddy Garcia back. "

Shocking...

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I mean the position itself. Some are probably better than others, sure, but I don't know what people expected from Dubee last year, when he was working with injured/old guys.

[Billy Mac]

JW, Good analysis on Madson. I think at times he must tip his change up, as batters seem to sit on it. He had a good curve ball, which was a real knee buckler, but he couldn't command it, so he abandoned it. As you noted, his delivery looks like it puts a lot of strain on his elbow and shoulder, so frequent trips to the DL wouldn't surprise me. Like nearly every relief pitcher we have, he has question marks. But he is one of better relievers which speaks volume for the state of our relief corps.

[dajafi]

Madson's season "disappointing"? His ERA+ was 151, and for the last eight games/12.1 IP he was available, he didn't allow a run.

I'll take that kind of disappointment, thanks very much.

[bill perry]

For the BeerLeaguer Guys: Do any of you have any idea what ever happened to career Phils minor leaguer mid '80's-early '90's Al LeBouf?? My business partner played college ball with him @ Eastern Connecticut State U. Thanks...keep up the great work!

[PhillieVic]

Matt Smith DFAed

[Billy Mac]

Although Smith had TJ surgery, I didn't see this happening. Expected TJ Bohn or John Ennis to be let go first. Down to 40 on roster now.

That leaves minor league catcher Jesus Sanchez and right-hander Carlos Monasterios as the remaining pieces for Bobby Abreu.

[clout]

kdon: Your problem is that once you take a position, even when the facts show you're wrong, you don't back off. Your insistence that Madson is a quality setup man is just the latest example. You're STILL trying to defend your statement that you wanted Geary and Madson as setup guys last year and the likes of Matt Smith and Zack Segovia in the pen. You got the pen you wanted at the start of last season and it was a DISASTER.

[clout]

The Matt Smith move is fine with me because he can't pitch until late in the season so it's unlikely anyone will claim him on waivers. Plus he's a very mediocre talent.

[MG]

Pitching coaches are overrated in general and I get the sense that Dubee is neither a distinguished pitching coach/horrendous pitching coach. I would argue that Kerrigan is a decent pitching coach during his tenure in Boston but just didn't mesh here.

The issue will once again come down to the Phils appararently trying to get by with very marginal talent in middle relief and at the 5th starter spot.

Can't really fault Dubee all that much if guys like Rosario or Durbin can't throw strikes with any kind of consistently. Where I am going to watch for Dubee's influence is the following:

1. Making sure that Cholly doesn't abuse the bullpen guys but Madson/Gordon in particular. The Phils were pretty good at keeping Gordon's pitching count to a bare minimum in Sept. and he responded fairly well. If I see Cholly trot out Gordon for 25+ pitches in an April game I am going to go nuts.

2. See how Kendrick responds to a second year. Kendrick will probably need to make adjustments this year as hitters in the NL become more familiar with him and the advance scouting reports get better. Dubee will play a big role here in helping Kendrick make adjustments.

3. Helping Myers back to the rotation. Dubee will help with Myers making adjustments but I am more concerned with how Dubee helps Myers' in-game mentality and psyche. This is totally from antetoal evidence but Dubee's doesn't seem to have a great knack for timing the appearance of his mound visits. I will be very interested to watch how this goes in Myers' first 4 or 5 starts.

If Dubee is somehow able to figure out how to get more out of the likes of the Amazing Durbins, Rosario, or the rest of the flotsam the Phils are going to employee in middle relief and as the 5th starter, more power to him but I won't place blame on Dubee. That one is on Gillick and the minor league system.

[MG]

I don't get all the appararent apathy/hate toward Madson as a reliever. Yeah, as a starter he was an unmitigated disaster but he has been pretty effective as a reliever during his tenure as a Phil. Dominant setup guy - no but more than capable reliever who can give the Phils a quality 65-75 innings out of the pen.

[Jim J]

I watched Rich Dubee down here with the Marlins for a couple years. He did do a very nice job with the kids they were bringing up.

[clout]

MG: As several posters have noted, Madson is a fine 7th inning guy. Not a setup guy as some have fantasized. Not a closer. Not a star. But a perfectly fine 7th inning guy who can alternate with Romero depending on the righty-lefty aspect of the opposing lineup. That's actually the part of the bullpen I feel most confident about.