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Saturday, January 26, 2008

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thanks for all the inside scooping. much appreciated this time of year.

Nice post. Frankly I concur with the Phils opinion about the Japanese pitching available. They've already got a bottom-feeder signed for 2 more years (Eaton) so why add someone who would require a similar commitment and perform the same?

Now, if we're talking adding a bullpen pitcher, maybe, but why would you send scouts to Japan to look for middle relief?

They weren't going to get Kuroda unless they overpaid for several reasons (still think the biggest reason was cultural comfort). An Asian pitcher is closer to home on the West Coast but I would imagine they would feel much more at home in a city like SF, Seattle, or even LA where there are much larger Asian communities.

Since it was evidently clear the Phils weren't going to do that, it makes sense that Kuroda went to a team on the West Coast with a pitching-friendly park.

Arbuckle has a point about the Japanese pitchers available not being much better than the 11th or 12th pitcher on this roster but he is kidding himself if he thinks:

1. The Phils have any kind of pitching depth whatsoever in their organization (disregard the misguided posts by SirAlden who would have you think the Phils have a number of stud prospects who will help this team in '09).

2. The Phils current pitching options for the last spots on their MLB roster are as weak as anybody in MLB. Condrey? Blackley? C. Durbin? "Real Deal"? Maybe they discover a dime in the rough with Blackley but where is the upside with any of these guys and I don't think a single one of these guys will give you even league average numbers over a season.

How could I forget that the Phils also acquired Youmans, Holdzkom, and Bohn along with still having guys like Rosario, Ennis, and Anderson?

Like I said - "ZERO" pitching depth right now with this club. If Eaton or one of their key relievers Madson/Gordon/Lidge open the season on the DL, this team will struggle to get out to a solid start in April.

C. Durbin could be an important guy for them. When they got him, we all thought there was a chance they'd still get someone else for the pen or rotation. Hasn't happened. Ideally, Eaton figures it out and gives them something close to average as the fifth starter. Then, C. Durbin becomes Geary, or even Madson when Madson first came up.

MG: I agree with your point about the bullpen depth 100% but I'm not sure I'd include Chad Drubin in with the other dreck you mentioned. I think he's a bit better than that, albeit no great shakes.

MG: Right on. We have a couple guys that "may" be able to help in '09'. Our staff, including Eaton are going to need to stay extra healthy. Look at what the Mets are offering for Santana, a bunch of prospects not thought of as great by anyone other than Mets fans and we don't have anything that comes close to what the Mets have, Phils need real pitchers not cast-offs and Rule 5s. Let's get Benson, Lohse and trade some prospects for a real another reliable relief pitcher.

Benson?

With Lohse not getting the long term offers he would want, is there any chance he might take a high paying one year deal, say 9-10 Million, and try free agency again after putting up a good season? Throw in a player option for a second year, and he would have to think about doing it.

If I had to guess, I'd say that the phillies make one of two moves (or maybe both) a couple weeks into spring training. These would be signing Benson to a low-base deal and trading for Crede. My logic is this, Benson hasn't wowed anyone but he also hasn't prohibited his signing, he simply is progressing more or less as schedueled and no team is yet ready to take the risk of signing him. However, he's been linked to the phillies more than anyone and if we got lucky we might even sign him to a minor-league deal. My guess is that the earliest we'd see him pitching for the phils is late april, early may. As for Crede, if the price is right and his back is okay than i could see it happening, but I wouldn't see it as too terribly likely to happen.

In response to Weitzel's post about Golson and Manuel, I thought Manuel's analysis of Golson's struggles was one of the most sincere and insightful answers to the question of Golson's problems.

they pretty much have no choice but to sign lohse, why can't they see that?

"(disregard the misguided posts by SirAlden who would have you think the Phils have a number of stud prospects who will help this team in '09)."

Repost my posts that support this statement MG.

You can't. You are a PUSSY INTERRUPTED. Go root for another team.

hey lech tizdayen
some of us understand the tribal tongue
you're lucky you're a phils fan :)

The Phillies minor leagues are recovering from the last three destructive years of the Ed Wade regime.

The talent is now at AA Reading.

SirAlden: Please supply a roster of Reading, since that's where the talent is, grouping which players were drafted under Wade and which under Gillick. I thank you in advance.

This team isn't making any additional moves unless they it is signing a guy to a minor league deal. That is the real shame because they might just might be able to sign Lohse to a 1-yr deal with a mutual option.

I still think that Eaton is going to start the season on the DL, C. Durbin will be your 5th starter out of camp but will get knocked around in a few April starts/get shifted back to the bullpen by May.

jo mama: tov lada'at sh'ata mevin, heshem sheli stam b'dicha

Does anyone know where the Phils farm system ranks in recent rankings?

Ahhh Beerleaguer. I just spent 25 minutes on hockeybuzz.com arguing with a bunch of Vancouver fans who are saying Downie purposely went head first into the boards the other night against the Penguins.

Anyway, SirAlden c'mon no need for language like that here. I agree with many on this blog and throughout baseball that the Phillies farm system is pretty empty. I hope you are right with your feeling that we have some great guys on AA but realistically if one of the Carascos, Saverys, Drabeks, etc. make it to the major leagues and is an impact pitcher then we'll be doing well.

Slocs - Agreed. I don't think the guys at AA or below with help this season but I am willing to bet that at least one or two guys get "rushed" to the Phils this year by June due to Gillick's inability to get the pitching help the Phils needed this offseason. Happened in '06 with Hamels and Mathieson and last year with Kendrick and Zagurski.

jo mama, good call.

sporadic posting from yokohama begins now! ok so i just moved from west phila to yokohama japan. everyone here says they should kept iguchi. its funny. anyway, go phils.

Is it officially agreed that Bill Conlin has gone completely insane? Please read his latest article...

He throws this in out of the middle of nowhere

"While we're on the subject of money, an avalanche of bad paper written by greedy lenders now caught between the devil and tanking subprime insurers is transferring the recession we already are in into something deeper, nastier and more global. The Central Bank of China or Japan probably owns your mortgage. Call the Dell Computer Help desk in India and they'll explain how it works. Then drive your Kia to the nearest Russian-owned Lukoil station and fill up with gas from a country that wants us to vanish into the sands of history."

Good luck to Mike Lieberthal in retirement.

Sir Alden: The "last three destructive years of the Ed Wade regime" were what brought us most of those guys at Reading, of whom you are so enamored -- i.e., Carrasco, Outman, Marson, Golson, E. Garcia, Slayden. They're also what brought us our No. 3 starter (Kendrick); the two key pieces we used to acquire Brad Lidge (Bourn & Costanzo);a likely member of our second half rotation in 2008 (Happ); our future backup catcher (Jaramillo); & 2 likely members of our 2009 bullpen (Zagurski, Bisenius).

The truth is, neither Gillick nor Wade deserves much blame or credit for our draft picks of the last 5 years. The draft is mostly in the hands of the scouting department, which has largely been the same under both the Wade & Gillick regimes. The GM might have some influence when it comes to the overall draft philosophy, but it's difficult to detect any significant philosophical differences between Gillick & Wade when it comes to draft picks.

MG Spoketh: this team will struggle to get out to a solid start in April.

Right, because we're so used to ole cholly's teams starting out of the gate really quick and being 5 up by the end of may.

:-)

I don't think the Phils will necessarily get out a slow start in April - they just need Eaton and the especially the trio of Gordon/Madson/Lidge healthy. Phils might even get away with Eaton starting the season on the DL because they won't need a 5th starter that many times in April.

Not to get to off topic but to Jo Mama and AWH, if you are truly offended by my choice of moniker I apologize, but seriously...lighten up

However, I really don't know how much grief I should be taking for my moniker from someone who calls himself Jo Mama...

Reading Zolecki's interview with Jenkins today, let me reiterate my thanks for Beerleaguer.

Why is it Jason can have 7-10 relevant stories about the Phillies, while all the Inky can produce for its Sunday edition is Jenkins talking about his fantasy football league?

Why not a story investigating the remaining 3B FAs? Pitchers? I'm okay with a feature every now and again, but give me something interesting.

...or a history of arbitration cases similar to Howard's...

...or an analysis of the production expected from Werth/Jenkins vs. Rowand...

...or, God forbid, an investigative piece on the Phillies financial situation; the revenue from the new park, the impact on the local economy...

I was very harsh to Mike Lieberthal during his final seasons in Philly- he was sucking up 7.5 mil the last 3 years, but I wish him well in retirement, and overall I have fond memories of him.

The fond memory of Mike Lieberthal I have is that when he came up, we never made the playoffs again coming off a WS appearance. When he left, we made the playoffs.

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