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Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Comments

We're going to tender arbitration to all of our guys, right? I don't know who Snelling is, and I'd hope we'd keep Madson around.

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I'm definitely ok with Mathieson and Zagurski in the pen. I'm more worried about Gordon than them.

From the MJS:

"Normally, when a players is designated for assignment, the team has 10 days to trade the player, release him or have him accept a minor-league assignment. But I just talked to general manager Doug Melvin and that won't come into play with either player, he said.

Wednesday is the deadline for tendering contracts for 2008 to unsigned players. Melvin merely will "non-tender" Mench and Wise, in effect releasing them. He had to designate them for assignment first, however, to clear the roster spots for Torres and Gagne.

Melvin said he didn't anticipate non-tendering any other players Wednesday but said they were still talking internally about it. I'm not sure who else they might consider unless it's reliever Greg Aquino, who made $399,000 last year and is arbitration-eligible. There certainly doesn't appear to be room for him in the Brewers' retooled bullpen but he does have a good arm."

They're taking too many chances in their pen if they're counting on Madson, who ended the year hurt, Gordon, who's old, then Mathieson, who will be rusty, and Zagurski, who's inexperienced. It's a recipe for a bad start and emergency decisions, which is what they were forced to make with Myers.

Clout

I would love to hear your prediction on Pedro Martinez for 08. A big season from him is the only way I can understand argument that the Mets have improved themselves.

Otherwise, their additions and subtractions are a wash.

Tray--- Ramirez was on the DL for shoulder tendinitis last May and had 3 DL stints in 2006. I think he's breaking down-- even if he's only 28.

Sign Wise and Ensberg and I think the off-season becomes above-average.. not good.. not great.. but at least it wouldn't suck like it does now.. Add Broussard or Monroe to that list and you "may" have a darn good off-season

from the district: Let us examine your statement about the Mets "their additions and subtractions are a wash."

Here are the Mets subtractions:
Green, LoDuca, Milledge, Glavine, Valentin. I won't mention crap like Conine.

Here are the replacements for those players:
Carlos Gomez, Schneider, Church, Martinez, Castillo.

To believe that the Mets are no better than they were you have to believe that Gomez won't put up better numbers than Green, that Schneider's defense/offense combination won't be better than LoDuca's was last year, that Church won't be better than Milledge (he probably won't), that Martinez won't be better than Glavine was and that Castillo won't be better than Valentin-Gotay.

As I said earlier, if you'd like to make a little wager, let me know.

rob: I'm with you on Wise & Enberg. For me if PG were to get Wise, Enberg and a Hawkins-type reliever, I'd be happy as a clam. Broussard would be nice if he could play RF, but I don't think he can. Monroe is a Roberson clone, so we don't need one of those.

rickyj: What factual basis do you have to believe that Mathieson and Zagurski could have good years as major league pitchers in 2008?

There are plenty of arguments that could be made that the Mets are worse, the same, or better, and they would all be valid arguments.

I dont think Gomez can get on base consistantly, I dont think schneider will outhit loducas 07, i dont think pedro starts 30+ games and i dont think castillo will start 120+ games.

I do think Gomez will fly when he does get on base, schneider will made loducas defense look horrible, pedro will have a sub-3.75 era when he does pitch and castillo will have a good opb when he does play.

So my vote would be for about even.

Clout, I have no factual basis that says Mathieson and Zagurski will be good pitchers in 2008. I can find facts that will back up the fact that they could be good, and you will respond with different facts that they will be bad and we'll both be telling the truth yet still disagree. So I'm going to continue to be optimistic about my favorite teams players and you're going to continue to bash them as we both do on a daily basis.

rob: On Ramirez, you could also note that he had shoulder problems most of last season, which may have caused the bad stats. You could also ask why in the world someone would think that a pitcher with shoulder pain and bad stats who may need surgery would help the Phils.

Hell yeah on signing Ensberg and Wise, lets hope PG has been saving his money and energy to hop on these guys as fast as possible.

ricky: I'm not bashing them. I just find naive wishing and hoping an insipid way to build a baseball team. I prefer talent, frankly, and it annoys me if the Phils don't get it. But whatever floats your boat.

Ramirez is bad bad news. Safeco was a montrous park and he still got pounded. So either he's a miserable pitcher or he's damaged goods, either way = bad.

I consider minor league track records to be facts. Mathieson and Zagurski have good minor league track records. Therefore I think both can be good in 2008.

ricky: In case you're scoring at home, Lo Duca's OPS last year was .689. He was one of the worst defensive catchers in the league. Schneider's OPS was .661. He was one of the best defensive catchers in the league. Catcher is one of the 4 most important defensive positions on the field, so I'd say giving up that small amount of offense is not a bad trade.

clout-- my assertion is that he IS breaking down.. the stints he had in 2006 were due to a torn tendon in his finger and hamstring probs.. Don't know if these were "freak" injuries or if it is a disturbing unhealthy trend for him. I think shoulder tendinitis tends to exacerbate into other arm probs due to over-compensation by the person affected.

Clout what are the other of the 4 most important defensive positions on the field?

ftd, my prediction on Pedro:

165-190 IP, 15-9, 3.50-4.00 ERA, 179 K, 42 BB.

Assuming his nummbers from 2007 were not an aberration, he'll do at least as well as the above - if he starts 30 games.

As with any pitcher - Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, Tom Gordon, Brett Myers, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, Mike Zagurski, JA Happ, and Kyle Drabek all come to mind - their health will determine their overall success.

ricky, look here for a listing of the defensive L-R spectrum:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_spectrum

Wait, are we assuming Pedro's 07 numbers were or were not an aberration?

"Monroe is a Roberson clone, so we don't need one of those."

Sorry, but I beg to differ.
Look at Monroe's stats and I think you'll agree he is far from a Roberson clone.

2006: 35 doubles, 28 homers
2005: 30-20
2004: 27-18

And, this is while playing in a non-hitters park in Detroit. Yes, last year he went "all the way down" to 23&12, but I would feel much better about the '08 lineup if PG could put this guy in it.

Just my two cents ...

Moot point....Twins just signed Monroe.

Maybe Clout meant to say Werth, which would be an appropriate comparison.

ricky, yes, we are.

I now ask you, please make a prediction for Cole Hamels for 2008. Let's see what assumptions you come up with ( assuming HE's healthy).

Vikeman: I am being too harsh on Monroe. But his lifetime OPS of .749 is below average and he's a righty with no on-base skills and a high strikeout rate, which is what Roberson is. I think he'd be a downgrade over either Vic in CF or the Werth/lefty platoon in RF.

clout, I have to take ricky's side of the argument on the Matieson/Zagurski debate.

Bill James 1988 Primer #1:

"Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics."


Unless, of course, you can demonstrate to me with evidence that minor league stats FOR PITCHERS are not good predictors of MLB performance.

AWH, I was only asking because Pedro was giving up 11 hits per 9 last season and his whip was almost 1.43. I don't want to read too far into that as it was such a small sample size though. I do think that Hamels outdoes Pedro next year, and makes more starts.

Mannys used underwear are on Ebay....is that what the Phillies have been saving their money for?

Rickyj21, if that is the case I would have rather seen the Phillies at least make a bid on Manny's B-B-Q grill. I guess the price got just a little to high.

You know how quickly things get bid out of the Phillies price range.

Rowand in serious talks with the Giants, according to Comcast. He would be a perfect fit for them. The Bonds era is over. Giants need to remake themselves with better leadership. He can teach them to be winners. Credit some of those Rowand clubhouse intangibles as having at least a small part in the Phils staying at it and gutting out a division title.

Does a team with Vizquel, Kent and Molina really need better leadership and intangibles? I just don't see how that deal would be good for the Giants. They need to get young and rebuild and when the rest of the team was good is when Rowand will be at the tail end of that deal and won't be worth what he's getting paid.

I'm amused by clout's logic that we have to assume a player on the Mets or Phils will perform the same this year as last year... except for Pedro Martinez who's return will make the Mets better.

Pedro has pitched a TOTAL of 160 innings the last two seasons because of injuries. That's 30 fewer that "injury prone" middle reliever Ryan Madson.

Anyone banking on Pedro Martinez to suddenly replace what the Mets got from Tom Glavine is wishing on a star.

"I just don't see how that deal would be good for the Giants."

Nothing has been reported on what the Giants are offering.

The Giants are the only team reported to be offering Rowand 5 years.

Ricky - Kent hasn't been a Giant since 2002.

You're all over me like white on rice, ricky21. Kent is on the Dodgers.

Haha, sorry bout that J. No disrespect meant, just tryin to keep you updated.

And yeah, I'm a jackass as far as the Kent comment.

Kent? Been a Dodger for a few years now...

Signing Rowand would be a good second or third step toward turning things around up there and away from the Bonds era. I do think Burrell will end up there next year, too.

CJ: It's absolutely true that Pedro has been hurt the past 2 years. But everything I've read says he is now healthy. Do you know something I don't?

AWH: Pitchers are always more unpredictable than hitters (see Gavin Floyd as the latest of a long line of great stat minor league pitchers). But, again, I have no factual basis to support ricky's claim that Mathieson and Zagurski will be quality major leaguers this season. Obviously, we'll find out who's right and who's wrong if those 2 open the season with the Phils.

Regarding Matt Wise, I seem to remember him as a RHP who actually faired the same - if not better - against Lefties as he does against Righties due to his very good change-up that drops off the table low and away from left-handed hitters. I thought he is actually very similar stuff-wise to Scott Linebrink with his off-speed stuff and sinking action on all his pitches.
If my memory serves correct, I would definitely like this guy in my 'pen, even if only as insurance or as a 6th/7th inning guy...

League's worst bench?
Snelling, Dobbs/Helms, Roberson, Bruntlett, Coste

Honestly, could Tomas Perez make this squad?

Calling possible non-tenders -
Ensberg, Crede, Mench, Broussard

Tomas Perez's career OPS+ numbers:
'06 - 32, '05 - 47, '04 - 67, '03 - 87, '02 - 91, '01 - 103, '00 - 48, '97 - 38, '96 - 64, '95 - 62

Seriously, how did he last 10+ years in the majors? Who wants to take a wager that he winds up on the Mitchell report for his 2001-03 years?

clout: Well... not sure how many times I've heard repeated that the best indication of future injury is past injury.

Besides, I can't uderstand why anyone would get behind a 36-year old pitcher coming off major surgery.

It seems that Wise is somewhat effective against both RH and LH, but he may have more of an advantage against lefties. Perhaps the changeup?

Wise's career splits
v. RHB
721 AB, 6.95 k/9, 3.07 BB/9, 2.26 K/BB, 1.34 WHIP, .260 BAA, 115 OPS+

v. LHB
594 AB, 6.86 k/9, 2.90 BB/9, 2.36 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP, .225 BAA, 81 OPS+

Rowand's not going to put butts in the seats out there in SF. 5 years would be another bad Sabean move.

Rowand will never see the playoffs again if he takes the deal from the Giants, assuming it's monerarily the best one out there.

Assuming the 5-6-7 sports in the bullpen belong to Condrey, Mathieson and Zagurski, I'd say we have three spots to fill, because all three of the above could get/stay ready in Allentown. (I realize Condrey would have to clear waivers, but do you really think that would be all that unlikely?) Wise seems like a prudent choice, but he'll probably have several teams after him, and he'll want a big ballpark to build up his value.

Wise's problem was that late in the season he hit someone in the face. From that point on he seemed to lose his nerve somewhat and posted a 7.5+ ERA the rest of the way. A little bit of head work and he might be back to being a sub-4.00 guy who can pitch an inning or three every week and handle lefties.

Prove you're a real GM and do it, PG.

no, clout, i am not a betting man.

I stand by my belief that the mets haven't improved themselves, but we'll just have to wager bragging rights.

I would still like to get your take on Pedro's numbers in 08, obviously you think they will be better than Glavine's last year . . . but how much better?

the one clear upgrade is castillo, but they had him for 50 games last year too so im not sure how much that extra obp is really going to upgrade the lineup

And this little ditty comes from John Heyman at si.com, when discussing the Cabrera/Willis trade:

" The Tigers were right to ignore baseball's ridiculously arbitrary slotting system, whereby teams use a player's draft position as the guideline for what his signing bonus should be. By ignoring it, Detroit was able to sign the better prospects and put them in a position to make this trade. The Yankees also have wisely ignored MLB's bonus recommendations. And now the Mets' Minaya told Baseball America and Newsday they may have to rethink their resolve to stick to the system. Being what Minaya called "good citizens," has cost them big time."


Amazing, isn't it. A small market team in a position to make a major trade because of the superior talent they had from the draft.

Paying above slot seems to be a lot less expensive than signing the Adam Eaton and Wes Helmses of the world.


One wonders whether the Phillies are smart enough to learn from oher teams' successes and/or failures.

Ensberg is not what's needed here. They should look at Pedro Feliz or, if they want to take a chance, Joe Crede. Crede has real pop in his bat and he can play third well enough that the pitchers won't mutiny. But they have to do something, and soon.

I'm no huge fan of Ensberg, but I don't think I can conceive of any way that Feliz or Crede is in any way a better option.

um. that's some redundant redundancy.

NY Daily News says the Mitchell report will name 60 - 80 players. Wow; a little more than I expected.

Fukudome signs with the Cubs, by the way, as per mlbtraderumors
4 yrs/50 mil apparently...

Looks like the phillies are going after bobby kielty to platoon with werth.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071211&content_id=2322817&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

"Looks like the phillies are going after bobby kielty"

I couldn't be any more underwhelmed if the Phillies announced they were bringing Sil Campusano out of retirement.

Say, fans, looking ahead to the highlight of the off-season, anyone care to speculate about ex/current Phillies who might be in the Mitchell Report? Parker, you for one surely must have some choice guesses.

I really can't figure out why the Phillies never went after Fukudome (I mean, aside from the obvious constant stinginess and refusal to consider foreign players). he's almost certainly better than anyone in next year's FA class, and somebody is going to have to take Burrell's spot in 2008.

although seeing as how they're interested in Bobby Kielty for this year, I guess that means Emil Brown '08 constitutes an "upgrade".

man, I am typoing it up everywhere. I meant 2009 in that last post, not 2008.

They're interested in Kielty to platoon with Werth? His numbers against right-handers are worse than Werth's ...

According to this source, the Phils just lost out to San Diego again:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/weblog/2007/12/fukodome_to_cubs.html

Iguchi signs with the Pads.

Bobby Kielty? We may as well just let Joe Thurston platoon with Werth. Seriously.

I don't see why they don't sign Shawn Green. He puts up great numbers against righties, is experienced, and still has a pretty good glove.

San Diego can give Iguchi the keys to second base, the Phillies can't.

Gooch and Fukudome - the decent FAs are dropping like flies.

What do Gillick and "them" do for their next act, trade for Santana?

I would join in the chorus of boo-hoos for Iguchi, except the Phillies have the best second baseman in the game on their team right now and locked up for a significant period of time.

Can we get a better link on the Kielty story, please? Thanks.

Never mind, I got it. Wow - Ed Wade has big balls for trying to pry Outman or Carrasco for Luke Scott. Those fans down there will eventually catch on to what we already know...

kielty sucks. also,. i'm glad gooch isn't coming back. he's overrated and i wouldn't be surprised if helms has just as good a year as he does in 2008. lastly, i think kuroda will do what so many japanese pitchers have done before him...fool hitters for a while because of a funky delivery, and then struggle. i'm not too upset about not getting him.

it would be nice to get wise though.

Yeah, here's a better link, sorry it got cut off.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071211&content_id=2322817&vkey=
hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

Wasn't aware that Ramirez had serious shoulder problems, just thought he had a really fluky season (even his peripherals weren't half as bad as the end result). Sorry. Clout, I would take your bet on the Mets, but I'm convinced that they'll add a pitcher or two, in which case they might be improved. Not to mention the chance that they'll trade for Santana or whomever midseason. But if they keep the roster as it stands, I'd be willing to bet that they'll win fewer games than they did last year, sure. Everything that they've done is more or less a wash and Alou, Perez, and Hernandez won't be as good next year.

On Wise, he looks okay on paper but I don't know what to make of a pitcher who "goes into a funk" because he hit a batter.

And on Feliz vs. Ensberg, Feliz is the vastly superior fielder if I'm not mistaken, and though he gets on base at an abominable rate, he's hit 20 home runs the last four years in a pitchers' park. I don't think he'd be the worst guy to have in the world as your 7 or 8 hole hitter in CBP.

"I'm no huge fan of Ensberg, but I don't think I can conceive of any way that Feliz or Crede is in any way a better option."

Well, if Crede is healthy, he is a much better option than Feliz.

Crede is younger than Feliz.
Crede has more power than Feliz.
Crede strikes out less than Feliz.
Crede is a better fielder than Feliz.
Crede has won a ring, Feliz has not.

Crede is the type of player that Philly fans would like. Doesn't mind getting dirty. Wears the pants up around his knees. And, got a lot of key hits down the stretch for the Sox during their playoff run.

"Say, fans, looking ahead to the highlight of the off-season, anyone care to speculate about ex/current Phillies who might be in the Mitchell Report?"

I don't know how in-depth the report will actually be (as in, if a name is not on the list, does it mean the guy was actually clean???).

But, I would not be surprised at all if Thome's name is on there. Abreu wouldn't shock me either.

There are supposed to be "some big names" on the report. Guys I could easily see being named...

Tejada
Pujols
Eric Gagne
David Ortiz

And, of course, Rod the Bod Barajas (just kidding).

But, thats just idle speculation. None of these guys may have done anything wrong, and a few guys you wouldn't guess in a million years might be on it. Should be interesting.

I think the following moves would instantly make the phillies the favorites in the east and are at least somewhat realistic and won't cost too much.

Sign or trade for Crede
Trade for Luke Scott - I'm sure Wade has his eye on some other players he drafted
Sign Matt Wise

We would still need a starter and another bullpen arm (maybe Kris Benson or a Mussina trade if the yankees eat some salary) and I think we should sign any japanese reliever, doesn't matter who.

Our lineup would then look as follows:

Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Crede
Scott/Werth
Ruiz

Our Bullpen:
CL Lidge
SU Gordon
MR Madson
MR Romero
MR Wise

These moves are not unrealistic and the phillies would still have some money to spend.

Another day. Nothing. That is all.

Crap. Even if the Phils sign another Snelling or Youmans it would be at least something to talk to about.

Saw Gross's article on Rowand put his house up for sale in Delaware Co. Guess a movers sighting would make it official.

Ed Wade's price for Luke Scott was Carrasco or Josh Outman. I would be stunned if PG pulled the trigger on that.

Mike H: Where did you hear that? That seems like a lot coming from Wade. Maybe we could do Cardenas and Happ, but I wonder if that'd even be worth it. Luke Scott would be the ideal platoon partner for Werth in RF though.

On a related note, I think our best chance of using Carrasco and Cardenas to get a good pitcher is for Snell, since the Pirates are years away from competing and Snell isn't as good as Haren, Bedard, etc.

Count me as someone who has no interest in Nate McLouse - below league avg even a a platoon.. Another Value Village player who will be out of MLB in 1-3 yrs.

Count me also, as someone who has no interest in Value Villager Luke Scott. Not enough AB to make me feel comfortable, though he would be slightly above avg as a platoon.


Scott Lauber is reporting on his blog that the Phils have no interest in Kevin Mench - becuse of his salary level. What else is new. Also, his power production has really dropped since '05. Will he be named in the Mitchell Report?


I was looking at the available list of FAs this morning and thinking about who it on whom be worth to actually spend money.

If, indeed, the Phillies still have $8-10mm to spend under the "cap" that "them" have set, are they holding out and trying to get a pitcher on a shorter term deal than he's looking? Are they keeping their powder dry in hopes that someone like Lohse will back off the number of years he's seeking?

Should the Phillies have any interest in Carl Pavano, who the Yankees are attempting to remove from their 40-man roster?


lekh, count me as someone who would be interested in IaN Snell. The price will probably be too high, though.

I just checked - he was drafted in the 26th round by the Bucs, despite his being right in the Phillies back yard.

There's that scouting department again!

Snell would definately cost a lot but a solid offer of Carrasco, Cardenas, and Outman would probably at least merit discussion. As far as Luke Scott, I think he's Ryan Church with a slightly higher ceiling and in addition he probably doesn't deny evolution. Scott can get on base despite a lowish average and has a ton of power. A full season of him and Werth could be expected to provide something like .265/.350-.370/.450 at a minimum, ideally out of the seventh hole. They could easily hit a combined 25 homers and they can both run a little and field the position. I wouldn't trade a top pitching prospect for Scott, but come on, this is Ed Wade we're dealing with.

also Snell is reported to hate playing in Pittsburgh because of the losing and he also dislikes the city as a whole. Pirates fans (Bucco Blog) seem not to value him very highly, whatever relevance that merits, and I really think the pirates are one of the few teams that should be interested in solid prospects that are two years away. They will not be contending for at least 2-3 years and getting two solid pitching prospects and a potential Utley-like second base prospect is a decent hall for a pitcher that's good, not great, and a year away from arbitration.

the info about Wade's demands for Scott was in the same item as the Kielty rumor:
Phillies: Seeking a left-handed bat to complement Jayson Werth in right field, the Phils have turned their attention to switch-hitter Bobby Kielty after their inquiry into the Astros' Luke Scott elicited a turnoff of an asking price -- either Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman, both prime pitching prospects.

I'm also not a big fan of pursuing Scott given that price. he'd certainly be an upgrade, but he's also going to be 30. I wouldn't give up any high ceiling prospect for him.

Mitchell Report: I'm hearing a lot of information suggesting that this report may contain mostly informaton obtained from the Mets clubhouse attendant who was running a drug ring out of the dugout during the 80's. He was "The Doc's" Doc, I guess. If this is the case, I would be rather disapointed in the results, if it is solely based on this information. I cannot believe that is true. However, there is some indication that it lambasts trainers and clubhouse officials, while leaving front office personell rather untouched. This would also be very dissapointing. That would merely confirm my suspicion that baseball will point the fingers at the smallest/easiest possible target, and hope everyone buys what they are selling.

Here is a good question: Was Mark McGuire's trainer the only guy who knew what was going on? Apparenlty not, Canseco seemed to have a good bit of knowledge that was apparently a badly kept secret. The only reason he went out with the information is that he had nothing to lose and everything to gain. Canseco has few worries about being blackballed from baseball, as it is probably safe to say he was on the verge of that already.

I expect to see a list of non-surprises: Grimsley, Canseco, Palmerio's of the world. I also suspect there will be a few guys that have been out of the league for a while that used to be big names such as, Juan Gonzales, Albert Belle, and the like. I would be shocked if the list includes any current players that most of us are familiar with, aside from the necessary familiarity of knowing that we would not want them to play on the Phillies.

I look for the Abraham Nunez type players as the representetives of the current players. Probably mostly Latin American fringe players. It would be very easy for baseball to blame the trainers and then also point the finger at a "Developing Problem (Not my words or theirs, but something that I would not be surprised to see)" within the subculture of Latin American players. Then baseball could easily shift the focus of the problem to cracking down on the importation and access to PED's coming in from foriegn countries. This would clearly skirt the bigger issues, and would fit perfectly into a mold of diverted attention, used to mask the truth.

All in all, I would be subjectively happy if they just drug the Mets through the mud. It is wrong, but it could not happen to a better group of guys. If they are going to tell only partial truths, I would rather have the fingers of suspicion fly in the direction of the Mets. Besides, with all of the great things going on in NY (Isaiah Thomas, The Knicks, The Jets, Madison Square Garden, Hank "Yeah I don't even believe my BS" Steinbrenner), it would fit right in. Stay classy NY.

This sudden interest in marginal outfielders like Kielty and Mench is very scary. I don't see how either one is a fit. They would be arbitrary selections based on low cost.

I wonder if they took a look at Snelling, who's forever injured, and decided he isn't worth a contract.

It's shaping up to be a different club next season, one that could score significantly fewer runs. Better get used to it.

I have a "weird guess" on a former Phillie who could be on "the list" .. How about Scott Rolen? I know he hit over 30 HR in "post-steroid" 2004.. but his career has been fraught w/ injury ever since..some production dips also.

J, but everyone thought the Phils would score fewer runs this season. Scoring fewer runs is only dissapointing in terms of degree. The Phillies left every NL team in the dust this year, if they fall of a bit from that total it is not devastating unless the pitching is equal or worse than last year. I think that as the season begins, the pitching staff (Barring injury) will actually be better than last seasons starting staff. That is hard to fathom looking at it on paper, but the amount of serious injuries that the Phillies sustained last season was rather remarkable.

The injury problems of last season have sort of been casualy brushed over in the months after then end of the season. I don't know how everyone feels about last season, but I recall feeling like the 2007 Phillies might have been the most unlucky team (as far as injuries) in a long while. Making the playoffs was a monumental victory given the circumstances. I think a healthy team would win more games, assuming that they can get some kind of bat to at least somewhat offset the loss of Rowand. Rowand, while putting up good numbers, made an extreme number of defensive gaffs in the early season and a few in the postseason. He also swung the bat at times like a drunk guy at a fast pitch, over 40, softball game. I'm not saying he is easily replaced, but there are some parts of his game that are not worth what he is bound to be paid.

ae: Scott for Outman or Carrasco, no way. Perhaps JA Happ or Mathieson plus a lesser prospect would do it. While I like Outman and think he could be good, his control sucks right now and I wouldn't hesitate to trade him for an established pitcher (Snell), but for Scott the price is prohibitive. Still, Scott is the best of any platoon partners mentioned yet and I hope the phillies continue to pursue him.

I'd give up Mathieson for a starting fulltime 3b, but not for a platoon partner for right. I still think he has the potential to be our best long term reliever.

Rickyj21: you're right, Mathieson does have the potential to be a great reliever, but right now he's coming off an injury and had a horrible era in his only mlb experience and never had much control to begin with. He has a very good fastball velocity wise, but it doesn't move much and his secondary pitches leave something to be desired. If he could get us Luke Scott than I'd do it in a second. He's nowhere near the prospect that Carrasco and Outman are and the chances of him postively affecting the phillies in 2008 are minimal. Yes it'd be a risky move but its got Ed Wade written all over it (except that he's not a veteran relief pitcher overused in previous years and just about to kick the tire...but he is coming off an injury).

from the district: You seem to have a Pedro fixation just like you have a clout fixation. Read my entire post. I am saying that the total affect of all the Mets moves makes them a better team than they were last year. Try again to understand this:

Let us examine your statement about the Mets "their additions and subtractions are a wash."

Here are the Mets subtractions:
Green, LoDuca, Milledge, Glavine, Valentin. I won't mention crap like Conine.

Here are the replacements for those players:
Carlos Gomez, Schneider, Church, Martinez, Castillo.

To believe that the Mets are no better than they were you have to believe that Gomez won't put up better numbers than Green, that Schneider's defense/offense combination won't be better than LoDuca's was last year, that Church won't be better than Milledge (he probably won't), that Martinez won't be better than Glavine was and that Castillo won't be better than Valentin-Gotay.

Injuries which we cannot predict aside, the Phillies should have one more month of production of Utley vs the good production or Iguchi, and one more month of Howard.

The Loss is Rowand vs Platoon Lefty/Werth, the loss of which should be offset by Utley/Howard. Does anyone believe that Rowand would equal his production if he played for the Phillies this year?

So as I see it, does the addition of a Crede, and a well crafted bench make-up for the loss of production from Burrell/Rollins, or any injury?

I do not see us scoring 100 less runs. We will see who is at 3B and the Lefthanded Rightfielder platoon spot.

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EST. 2005

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