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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

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why, oh why hast thou foresaken us?

Is this a major league deal? If so, it's a joke. You don't give spots on the 25 man roster (which a ML contract would all but assure) to stiffs like this.

I'm sure I'm not the first to mention this, but I think J.D. is the superior Durbin. He's probably *still* a better option to start than Eaton, but that isn't saying much.

The management-bashers' case just got a whole lot stronger.

ZiPS:

Chad (in Detroit): 5-8, 5.43 62/44 K/BB
J.D.: 6-8, 5.59 86/60

My buddy texted me earlier and said Howard Eskin said the Phillies would announce the signing of Jenkins on Thursday.

kdon - i agree, cooler pants has better pure stuff and thus more upside

id rather see him get a chance then not the real deal durbin

Eaton: 8-11, 5.53 95/61

Wow, so basically the Phils will have 3 Eatons competing for the 5th spot.

I would say Loshe is becoming a pretty important target.

Two Durbins, an Eaton and a Blackley.

A Deacklin.

Have to see if the Jenkins report is correct and terms of the deal. That's positive offseason news.

Tony,

Yep, J.D. is a classic good stuff, no control pitcher. If someone is going to post a mid-5s ERA for the Phils, I'd rather it's J.D. because he can be domninant at times, but of course, I'd rather just not have a mid-5s guy on the staff.

Mazone is still the 5th best starter in the organization.

i personaly thought the durbinator turned a page last yr, especially during his shutout, he seemed to have a myers syndrome, where he got to high on his own adrenaline, when he was calmed down, while not great, he was better than decent
and he is 4 yrs younger

The Real Deal has a great curveball at times. He's interesting, I'll give him that. I'd like to see him audition for a job in relief rather than rotation because of that pitch.

Rumor has it that Gillick balked when the Orioles demanded that the Phils throw Pete LaForest into the deal for Bedard. That was a deal killer, and the Phils then went to the next option and signed Chad Durbin.

Is it unfair to say the Phillies appear to be caring more about the well-being of their AAA team than Major League team this winter? Inaugural season? State-of-the-art facility, destined to become one of the best in the minors? A 51-percent share of the club? A truckload of Quad-A players like LaForest, Youman and this?

The Mahay deal was 2yrs/8mil.

Can I be the first to say that it's terrible that the Royals signed Mahay for 2/8Mill, and we had to give 3/13 to Romero? Does anyone else realize the Royals are making better offseason moves than we are? Ugh. Chad Durbin. Ugh.

I'd argue Romero's a slight cut above Mahay, Jack. Look back at his career stats, he's not quite the dependable lefty reliever people have painted him as of late. He's had a few pretty awful years. He's also 5 years older than Romero (37 this June), so it's a lot easier to justify three years for Romero than it is for him.

my God, look at the crap that got used last year ... Condrey, Hernandez, Alfonseca, Rosario, Sanches, MESA, Kane Davis, Fabio Castro, the other Durbin, Ennis, Segovia, etc. He's gotta be an upgrade compared with a few of those jokers.

ajc, I agree...Durbin isn't any cause for a celebration, but at least he's a serviceable major league pitcher. Last year, they were relying on people like Segovia, Happ, and (the other) Durbin to start games when people went down. If what they're shooting for is a repeat of that, I'm okay with it. And if he winds up in a Geoff Geary-type role - not the worst thing in the world.

In the context of being an alternative to signing more competent and established relievers, however, I'm not condoning this acquisition. Durbin's an acceptable pickup if you're busy filling other holes, but not necessarily as an attempt to fill a specific hole.

I meant to say, if they're shooting for is to *avoid* a repeat of that, I'm okay with it.

I don't have a real issue with Chad Durbin. I hope that the Phils are counting on him to fill out the 5th starter spot but he actually does bring some needed badly needed depth.

JW called it though. Some of the moves the Phils are making including LaForest and some of other minor league veteran signings are all about putting a more viable product out there for Allentown's inaugural season. They can't trot out the same sorry bunch from last year's terrible Ottawa team.

Maybe signing these "serviceable" pitchers is just a ploy to get Charlie/the phans to accept Eaton. Sadly, right now, he is the best option for the 5th spot.

Maybe gillick's a little miffed at how the phans have derided Eaton, and how Charlie Publicly called out PG to bring in another quality starter by giving him guys like this to work with.

"Well Charlie, you can Sit Eaton if you like, but you know what that means: you have to spin the Cast-off redneck wheel of fortune."

It is working...I am feeling way better about Eaton, JD Durbin and Happ right now. Thanks guys.

My only issue with this is that I still feel like we're missing a #3 starter which then pushes #3, #4 and #5 up one spot higher than they should be.

#3 and 3B 2 biggest problems.

If that seattle trade happens, look for Carrasco to be packaged to Orioles or Minnesota. Remember Silva is one of Santana's best friends and if Mets really signed Silva that could swing him to Mets... The twins should trade him to Nat'l league.

A healthy Happ will be the 5th starter next year. He has the potential, to be a very good major league starting pitcher. Hopefully, all these cast-offs and overpaid guys don't get in his way.

Young, 6'6'' lefties that can strike guys out and have won a lot of games in the minors, are not that common. Give him a shot. They gave a much lesser though of young pitcher a chance last year, and it worked out pretty well.

I like the Durbin signing, as a 11th or 12th man on the staff. Better than having a Brian Sanchez or Jose Mesa out there as a mop-up guy. This guy actually got some guys out last year, in the American League.

Still need to find another legit starter due to Eaton's mysterious health status. The Amazing Durbins and Blackley don't cut it out of the gate.

I believe Durbin will be used in the 'pen. That's what I was told from 2 different people tonight. If that's the case, I have no problem with the signing. There were messages pertaining to both Jenkins and Durbin on my answering machine when I got in. Durbin apparantly means Otsuka is out. THe Jenkins signing will be announced tomorrow or Fri. I was told that Benson may sign with the team as well. The Phils are apparantly still looking at 3B. Crede in a trade possibly or maybe Feliz. Zero interest in Ensberg. Helms will be traded if a 3b-man is aquired

Lidge, Durbin, Jenkins, Romero and other possibities. I guess that's not too bad. Not great but it is what it is.

Next 2 years:
Eaton+Carrasco+Victorino = $18 million. Ramirez+Beltre= $30 million
+ Jenkins and Lofton??
No lohse.

kdon: You can't possibly be serious about this: "Mazone is still the 5th best starter in the organization."

My guess Silva and Santana end up in Seattle. We get Beltre in a salary dump. I like it. If the Phils have decided to go for it, the also sign Lohse to 3 years+1 year.

MLBtraderumors.com is reporting that Silva signed with Seattle.

Beyond the fact that we now have another junkball pitcher primed to "compete" for that 5th spot in the rotation, I really have nothing more to add.

But I did need to test the spam filter to see if clout was right about it being, mainly, an "andy-spam" device.

Oh, and to tes my theory on what it thought the spam was: "Vic Darensbourg!!!!"

Well, clout, looks like we're both wrong. I bet that doesn't happen remotely often.

Unable to package prospects for a Dan Haren, wisely unwilling to overpay for a Carlos Silva, PG is giving Charlie possibilities and options. I got no problem with that, even if each individual possibility is debatable. Sometimes you catch a little lightning -- Werth, Dobbs, Romero -- and there is a AAA roster to fill.

Well, I have to admit, if there is a Jenkins signing announced tomorrow, the Phils have a leg up in the division race. If Crede and Benson are signed and healthy, I might even say a positive thing or two about Gillick...(wait; who am I fooling here?)

Durbin means Otsuka's out? Where's the logic in that? I'm not arguing with you, DPatrone, just management. Otsuka's a set-up man and Durbin's another Clay Condrey and/or spot starter. There's more than enough room for both.

If Dpatrone's comments were all replaced with unavoidable and never ending spam of death, lurkers would rejoice and write songs.

TJH~ Thanks for the compliment!

Tray~ Re-Otsuka: I yhink the Ohils are probably worried abiut his health and may go in a different direction.

I meant Phils. Sorry>

Who's the different direction? Who's left in the relief market that's any good?

If the signing of Jenkins is true, is it truly "good news" or a successful lowering of expectations by management of the Phillies place in the "market"?

Really? Is any of this a true effort to build a championship team? ...or is it an effort to put enough pieces in place to keep the team competitive and in the hunt for a playoff spot in order to maximize attendance while keeping profits stable?

In most sports, you can see the difference...and to me it seems the latter..and its actually pretty obvious.

What are DPatrone's credentials here? Haven't been on in awhile. Why would he have voicemails giving him this information? I realize that, if he's legitimate, he probably can't give us a perfect answer. But something a little more would be nice. As would a track record for accuracy.

Not that he's any good but watch for a guy named John Parrish from Seattle. I wondering if they're signing fringe guys to try to make a trade for Crede or another 3B-man.

Good questions, 102. It's good news insofar as we were hearing rumors about Bobby Kielty and Mike Cameron, but you're absolutely right.

Thanks RSB. I guess I'm just sick and tired of hearing the "golly gee...its SOOO hard to get the players we want" garbage from our GM's. Its not supposed to be easy dammit!! That's why you get paid the big bucks and we sit here post on websites.

If I were part of management and read a comment of one of my GM's pretty much saying publicly that he can't figure out how to get the players he wants and needs to build a championship, then I'd call him into my office and ask him why he thinks he should have continued employment in my organization ...since...after all...that's your job.

Watching the slingbox just now (yes Kells, I got it). Ron Burke says Phils asr still negotiating with Durbin (I tend to believe the reort of his signing) and that if he is signed he'll probably be given a relief role with a chance to start. Gillick says they're not in on the Loshe market "at the moment. No interest in Prior. Will wait and see on Benson as he's only throwing "76 MPH".

DPatrone-great buy on the Slingbox you won't be dissapointed. It saved me while living in Hoboken.NJ w/ Yankee nation.
I caught Ron burke;s report also. Dissapointed that Loeshe isn't an option.
Gillick is usually pretty honest..ie Rowan.
hopefully Jenkings sighning is announced tomorrow.

It appears Jenkins and Durbin will get done.

Jason, given the injuries that plagued the Phillies last year, all of the AAAA signings are probably to build some internal depth as much as to get the Iron Pigs off to a good start. If someone gets hurt and they have serviceaable depth in Allentown, they they won't be pressured into a bad trade.

I like the Durbin signing as a depth builder. It is apparent that with Durbin, and their interest in Benson, that they do not expect Adam Eaton to be healthy and/or effective in 2008, or that the injury risk is very high.

It was nice 'no win' ya, Adam!

Section 102, great post. You're right - it ain't supposed to be easy.

BTW, Jason, please note in my post above that I was actually complimentary.

Unbelievable, isn't it!

I'm convinced that the Beltre rumor is unlikely but with Seattle trying to get Bedard/Santana. Asking for Victorino and Carasco might be the final pieces needed to get a deal done. At worst Seattle saves $6 million and obtains two more sp.

The phils get better
- Beltre (major upgrade at third)
- Ramirez (has ok numbers in the NL)
- The Mariners take Eaton and his salary.
- The Phils get to trade Wes Helms

lineup:
Rollins
Utley
Beltre
Howard
Burrell
Jenkins
Werth/Snelling/Lofton(?)
Ruiz

Best infield in baseball.

2 Durbins too many. Seriously, this is a retarded signing.

Hey Carson, they could have signed Kip Wells, but I'll bet CDurb was cheaper.

Wells just went to colorado for 1yr /3.1mm.

I'd rather not have Chad Durbin than have Chad Durbin, but hey, maybe he'll be useful some way some how...lets only hope.

A Geoff Jenkins signing announcement would bring holiday cheer to me today though...c'mon Favre!

After the Jenkins announcement, listen for news about Cameron. If the Phils are still interested in him, I think Victorino is in a package for Beltre. That would set up a nice outfield for the M's with Ibanez and Ichiro. You know Vic make sense for them because he's almost Japanese.

"Vic make sense for them because he's almost Japanese."- wow, that was dumb. Made me laugh though.

By the way, Gillick already shot down the Cameron interest.

RofA: Vic is only Japanese if they win World War II.

Just looking for laughs...if Cameron is out of the picture, he was noise for the Jenkins discussions. Sure like to get Beltre though. Come on PG let's get it done!

Jason, this SPAM filter is a hassle. Anyway Typepad can add some code to "registered" users? Oh...and can we add spell check for DPatrone? Just kidding, Dom.

any way...and grammar checker for me?

I don't know if this has been posted but I just saw the Jenkins deal is rumored to be a 2-year deal with an option year worth around $13 million dollars.

What the Phils should do is try and flip this Durbin off to the Bucs for Marte. Sad thing is, they probably won't even contemplate that as a possibility...

BTW, I REALLY hope the Phils do indeed land Jenkins over Cameron! A press conference tomorrow would be a wonderful thing!

What the Phils should do is try and flip this Durbin off to the Bucs for Marte. Sad thing is, they probably won't even contemplate that as a possibility...

I'm assuming by "they" you mean the Pirates. or do you think there's actually demand for 30-year-old substantially below average pitchers?

Spam filter is as bad as ever so TypePad lied. I'll try breaking this up into short bits:
Carson: "By the way, Gillick already shot down the Cameron interest."

I have not seen that reported anywhere, but if you are right, my esteem for Gillick has jumped considerably.

Part 2
I am unimpressed with Chad Durbin, but those who think JD Durbin is better are wrong. JD has better stuff but no clue on command. A pitcher with great stuff and no command is like a great hitter with no bat.

If the Jenkins singing is true I think it is a pretty savvy signing.

If Jenkins and Werth are healthy all year, their platoon should put up better numbers then Rowand in SF and I would guess close to what Rowand would have done if he were back. All at half the cost.

B Dub = Admitted non-believer in Rowand as a consistent star player since 2005.

Part 3

The Phils needed a veteran swingman who could be stashed in the 'pen (and be an upgrade over the garbage middle relievers) until needed. Frankly, I would've preferred Julian "Lizard Face" Tavarez in that role, but he would cost $3.8M and the Phils would have to trade for him (although the Sox have said it wouldn't take much.) So, I can't complain about the Durbin signing as he is a big upgrade over the dreck in AAA (except for Happ) that would have to be employed otherwise. I'm probably alone in this, but I don't want JD Durbin, Zack Segovia, John Ennis, Kane Davis, Anderson Garcia or Brian Sanches touching a baseball for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008.

Part 4
And last season gives me hope that Chad Durbin has maybe a 10% chance of turning into Jeff Suppan.

For Slocs and others who are looking for Horacio Ramirez to help the Phils (should the rumored Beltre deal happen), you should note that Ramirez pitched much of last season with "pain in the back of his left shoulder" and spent some time on the DL. He also showed a loss of velocity on his way toward compiling a 7.16 ERA in 98 IP. The Mariners would have to consider themselves very lucky to find a taker for this damaged property.

The Bucs wanted Durbin (the new one). Throw in "Fat Mike" Zagurski with Chad for Marte. Would they bite? I don't know, but they are the Bucs. They get the cheaper lefty bullpen piece (plus Russell has seen Fat Mike in action) and a potential back-end of the rotation starter.

Jon: Under the previous idiot GM, the Bucs might've gone for that lopsided bad trade. Not now.

Phils do get Jenkins!

Hot off the press as of 10 minutes ago:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3162819

We got jenkins, per mlbtradrumors

2 years for 13 mil with a vesting option for 2010 that could bring it to 20mil

Not ecstatic or anything, but he should help replace Rowand's lost production. Hopefully he'll improve on last year's .317 OBP. 2 years for 13 million isn't so bad.

Well a preliminary agreement anyway.

The Phils all but have this guy!

This is a great move with losing Rowand a couple weeks back! I too believe that a Jenkins-Werth platoon will out produce Aaron's numbers in San Fran.

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Jenkins/Werth
Dobbs Helms (hopefully Crede or Beltre)
Ruiz/Coste

Nice!

The Phils need to upgrade third next. THey need to find a way to get Crede or Beltre here. I'd also like to see Benson signed and see the team acquire at least one more decent piece for the bullpen (ideally two, but management won't go for that).

Its the first solid FA signing of the offseason for us. It definitely helps with OF depth and a Werth/Jenkins platoon is actually a pretty darn good outfielder. I am especially happy with the price that we got him at, I definitely think that was the best case scenario. I still just wish Ensberg was going to follow, but apparently the FO hates him.

clout -
1. "Lizard Face"? I thought I was the one who made up bizarre nicknames and you were too stodgy to do that kind of stuff. Are you getting funny in your old age?

2. A pitcher without command is not like a batter without a bat, it's like a batter who cannot tell the difference between a fastball and an offspeed pitch - i.e. Greg "Gimme a Clue, Please" Golson.

FINALLY! a FA signing that matters AND improves the team..If The Beltre deal gets pulled off, I may actually look into tickets... I actually think Ramirez isn't as damaged as you may think.. He had shoulder tendinitis.. not a serious condition UNLESS you alter your throwing motion and screw up something else in your arm.. I think his 7+ ERA is due to the tenderness produced by tendinitis..

I love the Jenkins signing. However, I don't know how I feel about sending Vic in a deal for Beltre.

If Gillick gets Beltre here, even giving up Carrasco and Vic, and it will become very, very difficult to say anything bad about him ever again.
Rollins, Utley, Beltre, and Howard should have Managers buying adult diapers for their pitching staff - cause it sure as heck is gonna scare the s... (well, you get the runny brown picture).

Mike - write yourself a batting order with Beltre and no Vic, then one with Vic and our normal 3B options. Imagine yourself as a LH pitcher. Which one do you want to face?

Mike-- Beltre will be 29 in April.. He averages 23 HR in both Dodger Stadium and Safeco.. Can you imagine how that translates to the Zen? He looks to be average defensively.. someone correct me if I misinterpreted his defensive stats. Vic is a fine player.. but you cant trade dreck for a 25-30 HR 3B

Who plays center in this brave new Vic-less world?

I like the Jenkins signing. I will echo what was said by another upthread...his platoon with a finally-healthy Werth will replace Rowand's numbers.

What is this Beltre rumor people are mentioning? Who is rumored to be going for him?

on second thought, it looks like Beltre has excellent range.. His errors are probably of the throwing variety... clout--- have any input as to Beltre's defensive skills?

I'll throw my Mariner opinion out there and say M's would have very low interest in Victorino. Adam Jones and Ichiro are both CF-ers though Jones will play in right. Ibanez is a popular player and much needed LH bat besides Ichiro. Balentien is also a nice prospect though I know little of him. I imagine he would start over Vic as well.

If Vic is supbar in the NL for a RF-er he isn't going to do much better as an AL LF. So barring a trade of Ibanez or their 2 OF prospects in Jones+Balentien, Vic only makes sense if they immediately flip him as well.

rob: I think Beltre is an excellent defensive thirdbaseman. Throwing errors are one of those things that go up and down each year, but he's sure handed and has fine range.

"Rollins, Utley, Beltre, and Howard" has an MLB team ever had such infield vs. outfield disparity in talent?

Yes Beltre is an above average fielding 3B with a strong arm. Most errors are probably of the wild throw variety. Of all the broadcasts I watched a consistent theme was slurping of Beltre defensively.

As the 3B market is so weak as well an SEA having no immediate replacement for Beltre he is probably unattainable. This time last year he was rumored to be a contract desired to be dumped but I think that changed big time.

Don't get me wrong, I like Beltre, but as Tray said "who plays center?" If Cameron is out of the picture then you're just replacing a hole at third with a hole in center. I guess they could go get Lofton. On the other hand, if Eaton is involved in that deal in any way I'll change my tune.

thrillhouse: I'd love to have Beltre, but I have to agree. Looking at this deal from the Seattle side, it makes no sense. Which is why it won't happen.

Crasnick says that by committing to Jenkins, that does end the Phillies pursuit of Mike Cameron and makes Vic the everyday center fielder.

Evidently, those who know him consider Jenkins a stand up guy with a great work ethic. The OPS consistency and extra 10 points was good enough for me, but this is icing. Or gravy. Or both.

And MLBTR calls it "uninspired", for whatever that's worth.

If Vic does get dealt, is Lofton an option at that point?

I think alot of the Jenkins love is an assumption of a return to career numbers vs RHP. I thought all along that potentially he could just be declining early and if .800 OPS is your good split side your not a massive upgrade.

Now I think the numbers will be better than that because of the park but I wouldn't be shocked if it was closer to .800 than .900

I like the Jenkins addition. But at 6.5 million, that's a lot of dead presidents for a platoon player. But Dom should be happy that the Phillies finally overpaid for a FA. Not let's get Beltre.

And MLBTR calls it "uninspired", for whatever that's worth.

That guy seems to have a noticeable anti-Phillies bias.

I have little hope that a Beltre deal will be accomplished. That said, if it takes Vic, Eaton, Carrasco and throw in Helms to fill the SEA 3b hole. I'd consider it. As to the CF hole, I'd like to see them give Werth a chance to play everyday. Hand Jenkins the RF job. Adjust the lineup based on the starting pitcher.

Write this down- I agree with clout on the Durbin signing. He is depth at the position.

I think the Phils can make it work with the double platoon at least til the All-Star Break and then they can worry about looking for trade candidates. Something might pop up between now and then.

Trading Victorino and bringing in Cameron weakens the outfield while strengthening the infield so it's a lateral move maybe.

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