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Tuesday, December 04, 2007

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Baggage with Kris Benson... Are we talking about his wife again? Paging Dr. Carson!

For Ricky on the last thread:

It seems like you took your math classes at the same university that gave Sir Alden a law degree. OPS is NOT a percentage. It is the SUM of two figures, one of which is a percentage (OBP), and one of which is a weighted average of total bases/at-bat. The fact that both of them come to numbers that you can round to three decimal places has no bearing on the equivalence (or lack thereof) of a tenth of a percentage point in each.

If you want to compare the relative impact of the two numbers, you're going to have to correlate each to a common figure (WPA, for instance) and based on your regression assign a weight to each value. Maybe someone would like to perform this analysis, but something tells me it won't be you, Ricky.

McLouth - no thanks, really.
Benson - if the workout is good, sign him.
Feliz - too many holes, forget him.
Livan - not interested with this park.
Jenkins - much better OF option.

For 2008, McLouth = Michael Bourn i.e. speed, defense, versatility, LHB . . . a "hobbit" with upside. See http://www.maroonedonfedst.com/?m=200708

I don't mind him as a fifth OF or 24/25th spot on the roster. Does he come w/o Benson and instead w/ free agent signings Kuroda and Jenkins?

so...

Ruiz
Howard
Utley
Feliz
Rollins
Burrell
Victorino
Werth/McLouth

Helms/Dobbs/Coste/Bruntlett

Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Kendrick/Benson

Lidge/Gordon/Romero/Madson/Mateo/whoever x 2

zzz

Take out "Feliz" and insert "Crede".

well, I might upgrade that to only two Zs.

If the Phillies want to guarantee another slow start, then McLouth is the guy for them. A nice McLouth/Werth platoon should be good for a lot of early grumbling.

Since we are talking about the Pirates again, lets bring Marte back into discussion. He could probably be had for a mid-level prospect. Why not let John Russell pick one of his guys from AAA last year. Hell, I'd even give him "Fat Mike" Zagurski for the experience and effectiveness that Marte brings. He would be an awesome #2 left-handed reliever.

hard to believe that Washington could be trotting out a better outfield than us. admittedly, they've got some high-risk guys, but it's not that much of a longshot.

Here's your lineup when Moyer meets Hudson:

1. Rollins
2. Victorino
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Burrell
6. McLouth
7. Ruiz
8. Bruntlett
9. Moyer

Top-heavy, ain't it?

If there must be a platoon situation, I would rather have Werth/Podsednik/Dobbs and the third base situation fixed (perferably Crede or Blaylock or Tejada if possible) than Werth/McLouth.

Or I should do Smoltz, because Burrell sits against Smoltz.

Podsednik brings less to the table than Feliz.

ARRRGH! Just hell with it!

Let's re-sign Rowand, trade everything for Bedard and sign Blalock. And let's get Fukudome and Kuroda!

I'm sorry, but I'm sad to see other teams discussing Bedard and Cabrera, etc., while we go after Nate McLouth and Kris Benson.

Jason, that's truly depressing.

Burrell finally took him yard last year. Manuel will play him every game against Smoltz, regardless if he goes 0 for his next 30 against him.

SIFL, you're an idiot. Don't just assume you know what I meant and go off on a tangent. I know exactly how to calculate OPS and RZR and I understand what is and isnt a percentage. What I meant was the percentage difference between the platoons OPS and Feliz's OPS and the same with RZR (ie. difference over the total, which is, oh, a percentage)

And I actually could do the analysis with WPA, but my point isnt to get deeper and deeper into stats and expand this into a big deal. The point was to show the difference in offense is incredibly small compared to the difference in defense.

ae: I bet Cholly would distribute the resources this way against Smoltz.

1. Rollins
2. McLouth
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Dobbs
6. Victorino
7. Ruiz
8. Bruntlett
9. Moyer

Magical, ain't it?

Magical as the man himself...

Jason, that lineup is sure to produce 2.89 runs per game.

ARRRRRRGGGGHHHH!

Seriously how is Lester, Crisp, Masterson, Lowrie much better than Savery, Victorino, Carrasco, Donald, Outman?

It just seems like the Twins have some huge crush on Lester and I still can't figure out why. And while Lester would trump Savery, Vic is better than crisp, Carrasco is better than Masterson, Donald and Lowrie are even, and Outman comes as an added bonus.

I heard on the radio that a Phillies farm club (the Iron Pigs?) received flack for their proposed mascot named Pork Chop as being politically insensitive. Will they be forced to stop selling hot dogs, too??!!

I'm way down south, this is out of my media range. Any more news about this? Will Osama make a declaration against the Iron Pigs?

Apparently it is derogatory to hispanics. WHY? not explained in the article...I guess that would not be PC.

ae: true, but I would only get podsednik if you could get a third basemen better than feliz so that you could platoon him with not just werth but also dobbs. Podsednik would be cheaper than McLouth. I wouldn't want a platoon in the outfield, but if there must be a platoon and the third base and pitching situations can be fixed as best as possible, it wouldn't be too bad.

rickyj, Jason Donald just posted a .877 OPS as a 22-year-old at single A. Jed Lowrie posted a .862 OPS as a 23-year-old at AAA. there is no comparison there.

Someone needs to shake Pat Gillick and tell him that there's no cheap way to win a division two years in a row.

typhoon, Podsednik also can't play right field; he doesn't have the arm for it.

ricky - Savery cannot be traded yet.

Ricky: Agreed. Lester is a nice commodity. His ceiling is a No. 3, but he's more figured to be a No. 4. He has command and can go six. Basically, he's Kyle Kendrick.

So a Phils offer of Kendrick, Victorino, Mathieson and Cardenas would be exactly the same as what the Sox are giving up.

"Kendrick, Victorino, Mathieson and Cardenas"

If that would work, I'd do it in a half a heartbeat.

The bidding on Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda continues to spike, with one source speculating it will take an offer in the range of five years and $50 million to sign him. (via)

now that's just crazy.

Malcolm - that is not at all a comparable deal.

McLouth? Feliz? Benson? I should just coming to BeerLeaguer until the Winter Meetings over. It is too depressing.

I had a bad feeling that Feliz is destined to be a Phillie in another week or so. He fit in their price range and contract length (say 2 yrs/$7-$8 M). It will be amusing though to see how the Phils spin the Feliz signing as an upgrade at 3B.

It Feliz becomes a Phillie, then should just give the Nunez's old number. That way you would initially know you could get up and walk away from TV when he comes up to bat.

If the Phils are determined to add a Pirate to the roster, I prefer they'd take a flyer on Zach Duke. Yes, there are a lot of negatives with him (with the refuse bin the Phils shop in, that's to be expected), but I like to think of him as the Phillies' version of ex-Buc Oliver Perez -- buy low, keep your fingers crossed, and maybe you get lucky.

And, yes, the nurse should be by with my medication any minute now...

I'm defecting to Red Sox nation. Adios.

Jason, you screwed up on the batter order, remember catcher always bats 8th

ae: I'll give in on that, since Lowrie is proven in AAA; still, if that's what the Sox are going to give up, we're not that out of reach. We could put together a deal for Santana.

We could have Yogi in his prime and he would still bat 8th.

Malcom,
we won't pay $150 million for 6 years after and thus Santana won't waive his no trade clause.

The thing is we can offer a better deal than the Dodgers for Bedard and take some salary off their hands like Huff (lefthanded bat for rightfield) or Mora. We should be willing to trade anyone but the big five (Hamels, Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Myers). That means everyone including Kendrick, Madson, Carrasco, Outman, Victorino, Ruiz, etc. I say the same for Haren.

If we're gonna get Feliz and McLoser, then maybe it's time to revive the Ryan Howard trade talk...along with the Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley trade talk. (And the Cole Hamels and Brett Myers trade talk) (and so on)...

It'd be time to really begin work on the second 10,000.

"If Feliz becomes a Phillie, then should just give the Nunez's old number. That way you would initially know you could get up and walk away from TV when he comes up to bat."

MG, that was the "Line of the Week." Great!

Truly. Just like Wolf wanted to go to Petco, McLouth is much better suited for the Pads than the Phils. He can patrol their OF and steal bags. Send him there, not here. Think we can get him and flip him with a prospect for Chase Headley?

Anybody here interested in Edwin Encarnacion? He's only 24 makes about 500,000 and is an averageand IMPROVING defensive 3B. anybody know what the Reds are lookinf for? He and Josh Hamilton are being shopped a little at the meetings. And God knows, Gillick LOVES to trade with the Reds....

Given that we are already in pink unicorn land, I just wanted to mention that MetsBlog is POed that "they are not getting their ace" and settling for Livan. We're looking at a rotation over there of Pedro, El Duque, Livan, Maine, and Perez. So, please, climb off of the Ben Franklin and put down the whiskey and Vicodin.

There's two trains of thought right now for me.

The Sox got Matzusaka and Drew last year, and they weren't the ones responsible for the Sox winning the division. More responsible were Pedroia, Ellsbury, Papelbon and Delcarmen, young kids who they brought up through the system.

Then again, even more responsible were Beckett and Lowell, who were acquired after the Sox grit their teeth and gave away a very good prospect (Sanchez) and their best prospect, who, by the way, is Hanley Ramirez.

That's the problem. Bedard and Mora could be our Beckett and Lowell. Then again, they can be our Matzusaka and Drew. Or, worse yet, they can be our Garcia and Helms. We can definitely give up Carrasco, Madson and Victorino for them. But what's that cost?

Tis the game.

rob-
hmmmmmm....
depends what they want.

He's got a little pop, a little speed, is righty. He would fill the hole, free up Helms for that (pink unicorn-like?) Farnsworth deal, and allow Dobbs to reacquaint himself with PH/fill-in/bench duty (maybe even some LH RF time).

Definitely better than Feliz.
And better than the current platoon.

McLouth aside, the best nugget up top is that Dontrelle is now involved in trade talks after the Marlins were supposedly keeping him. Phillies need to get in on that.

If you believe Ken Rosenthal, and the Marlins/Tigers megatrade is still in the works, that would free up Brandon Inge. Any interest? If so, what would it require to give up?

rickyj: Your problem is in trying to compare the pct difference in a dubious defensive stat with OPS. They are not of equal value, so you're comparing apples and oranges.

Mike H -
150 K vs. 120 Hits Brandon Inge?

He'd still be better than Feliz, but I think I'd rather look at the Encarnacion thing.

Brandon Inge is 30-- so no upside.. He is Pedro Feliz w/ less glove and MAYBE less BA and power

Call me a Pollyanna, but I like McLouth, depending on what we'd give up. He's not an everyday player, but he can do a little of everything, is cheap and at age 26 might someday develop into an everyday player. Sort of a lefty version of Werth with upside (which Werth doesn't have). If we can't afford Jenkins, he's not a bad fallback. I wouldn't deal one of our top prospects for him, though. Golson? Gone in 60 seconds!

By the way, OPS comparison for 2007:
The unloved McLouth: .810
The worshipped Victorino: .770

It's not McLouth I'm mad about; it's the fact that McLouth is news of the day for the Phils. Maybe someone will agree with me here - a team that won its division and is literally a likely contender to win the World Series next year, and we're getting in on the Nate McLouths and Kris Bensons of the world. Meanwhile the Yanks and Sox are interested in every player that comes through the turnstiles, and the Dodgers, Mets and Angels seem to be in every rumor as well.

Of course, we can't buy into any of these rumors (Lowell showed us that), but I wouldn't mind seeing "the Phillies have huge interest in Miguel Cabrera" or something like that. Just humor me or something.

Malcolm: Who cares about being involved in rumors? We were rumored to be interested in Alfonso Soriano and a lot of good that did us. I'm more interested in what they actually do than having them tied to players they'll never get.

Why have we glossed over Miguel Cabrera? Is there any way we could push for him? Or will the Marlins not consider a same-division trade?

Inge's lifetime OBP .304-- Feliz .288 Plus Inge makes 5 mill/yr wheras Feliz may get 3.5- 4 mill/yr. On balance.. both options kinda suck.. which means we'll probably end up with one of them.. Outside the box: Why not do Kendrick and Madson for Encarnacion? Do Helms for Farnsworth .. and you've probably saved more cash to sign Aaron and Lohse. This may create severe brain cramping for Amaro and Gillick...

ESPN is reporting that Dontrelle and Cabrera to Detroit will be completed by tonight.

Clout: I saw that, too, when researching McLouth - the small difference in production between Victorino and McLouth.

They just announced on espn that it is pretty much official - Cabrera and Willis going to Detroit for Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin.

I think good news for us (and the rest of the NL east), as we will have 18-19 games against a weak lineup from last year minus their best hitter. Also, I hated having to face Willis before, and it will be nice not to have to face him several times each season.

Honestly, I don't understand how this Helms for Farnsworth thing has lived on so long. I'm sorry, Is Brian Cashman an absolute moron. No matter how badly Farnsworth performed in NY, he can net more than Wes, Can't Field, sometimes can hit, Helms. I don't think Brian Cashman gives a crap if Girardi and him are buddies or not.

So much for D-Train.

CJ: I'm with you on that totally, but we have to be careful. I'm not saying we should get Cabrera, or even Bedard; what I'm saying is we shouldn't be happy with patching up this team with the Nate McLouth's of the world. Yes, it worked last year, but I can't begin to think we've improved on last year's club. We haven't made up for losing Rowand, and we haven't fixed the bullpen.

It's just hard for me to sit back and watch this all unfold, especially when the names are getting tossed around and our team isn't any part of it.

"I wonder whether defending division champs should be getting involved in players like McLouth, but hey ... that's just me."

Well put, Jason. I was looking around for the article where an NL executive made the comment to ESPN that the Phils are essentially a few stars with c grade talent. Gillick needs to step up and find a way to surround that talent with players who can produce. Sure, it's easier said than done, but why aren't we thinking creatively about resigning Rowand and, when is range for CF ends, we move him to the corners? Heck, there'll be an opening in LF next season and can easily flip him and Vic.

Scary as this might seem...I was in Vegas over the weekend and the Phils are 13-1 bets to win the World Series (5th overall I think) and tied with the Mets and Cubs at 5-1 to win the National League. So your points about taking Value Village guys to fill slots when there are bigger and more valuable fish in the sea is well taken. I think the Nationals are 130-1 and right now they may have a better (at least higher ceiling) OF than the Phils. Fortunately, to this point, all the big-time talent is either staying or moving to the AL, but you can't count on that happening for long...

Pat Gillick has said that Gooch has changed his stance on 3b. I say bring back the GOOCH!!!!!

Dave Dombrowski is one shrewd GM. I tip my cap. Willis is going to love pitching in that park and with Pudge again.

Jerry Crasnick (ESPN) reports Kip Wells' agents are shopping him as a setup man trying to shape him in a new role since his 7-17 season. He's apparently a hard-thrower, according to the report.

Does it make any sense? Is he even an option?

From Zo's Blog:

"Pat Gillick just told reporters at the Opryland Hotel that they might have an opportunity to bring back Tadahito Iguchi next season -- and to play third base.

More to come later."

Sorry if this has been posted here already, but Zolecki is reporting that Iguchi is reconsidering the move to 3B.

http://blogs.phillynews.com/inquirer/zozone/

We absolutely need either one more BIG bat (assuming OF) or one more IMPACT pitcher (SP). It is absurd to think that the talent on this team will once again be forced to fight for a playoff spot, instead of fighting for a WS title.

We have 5 untouchables. That leaves 35 pros and the whole farm that must be made available in order to significantly improve this team.

Make. A. Move.

12:43 p.m., from Jayson Stark
• The Phillies and Ryan Howard's agent, Casey Close, plan to meet and resume discussions about a long-term contract for the slugger. Those talks broke down in spring training, and the Phillies ended up renewing Howard's contract for $900,000. This year, Howard is arbitration-eligible and hopes to get a deal done similar to the one Albert Pujols (seven years, $100 million) signed with Cardinals in 2004.

You mean the alleged impossibility of Iguchi playing third?

Frankly, I would be stunned if he doesn't get a 2B job somewhere. He would have seriously fallen through the cracks. I would take him over Casillo.

"I wonder whether defending division champs should be getting involved in players like Nate McClouth"

Every team, division champs or not, is going to have players of this caliber on their team (or worse).

A 26 year old who posted .258/.351/.459 13 home runs and speed is all of a sudden beneath us?

I think all of us want management to make every move, big or small to improve the team. McClouth is better than some of the guys on the roster currently. Whats the big deal?

Iguchi willing to play 3rd, finally some good news. If we sign him it could help with Fukudome and/or Kuroda as well.

Hey if we can sign Iguchi, it may be a blessing for us to sign Fukudome and Kuroda!
We can have a Japanese team

My problem with McLouth is that we need some actual power from an OF acquisition guy. We just got Snelling. We still have Vic. We still have Roberson (ich). We have about five guys in the minors who fit the same model, too. (Berry comes to mind.)

And McLouth's OPS is partially based on a HR year like he's never ever had in his pro career. Ever. Even in the minors.

I do not believe he has Vic's long term potential with regard to hitting.

(He may be faster, though. Those 22 SBs came against 1 CS - imagine what he'd do with Lopes tutoring him.)

I'm shocked Iguchi couldn't get a job at second. Kaz Matsui got a three-year deal, for god's sake. Kaz Matsui!!! but if he has the arm to play third, I'd love to see him back here.

rethinking the McLouth situation, I'm not quite so down on it. some good arguments on the pro side. I think my concern is more in terms of the whole picture...nothing wrong with McLouth on his own, but when it's just one of four of five lateral (or semilateral) moves it's a lot harder to swallow.

fljerry - If Gillick convinces Iguchi to play 3B, signs Fukudome and Kuroda, I'd revise my opinion of him upwards. Even if all three bomb out, he would have actually taken a risk with good potential upside.

from the district, sure, every contender does have players like McClouth on their roster, but the WS Champs limit the number of those players while maximizing the number of B grade talent.

ae
How about semi-lateral semi-moves?

Just assuming Iguchi does play third, Where will he bat in our lineup? Hate to see
Vic not being the second batter.

I think I'd have to assess those on an individual basis...

There are issues with bringing back Iguchi, Gillick said on Comcast. Remember he was released by the Phils because he wasn't a true free agent ... there are some hurdles there.

so Jason - we'd have to surrender a pick to ourselves AND we'd get a sandwich pick?

The Marlins will receive lefthander Andrew Miller, outfielder Cameron Maybin, catcher Mike Rabelo and three minor leaguers.

I would calm on the "Iguchi makes it easier to get us Fukudome and Kuroda" talk.

Unless Gooch is used as a middle man to goad them into thinking paying less for guys pays off, it has no effect.

Here's a question...we had Iguchi the 2nd half of the season and were still trotting Helms out at 3rd base. Why the hell didnt we try iguchi at 3rd then. I guess we could assume he'd want an entire spring to get used to playing a new position.

I'd just be happy to stop arguing about Pedro Feliz and yet still have a 3rd baseman that can field.

J Don't understand what you mean hes not a true free agent. If hes not then he still belongs to the Phils????.

Ricky - Iguchi playing third was brought up lots a times when Utley came back from Injury.
I even brought up to let Utley play third, but this was turned down by just about all on here.

I NEED Gooch back. Make it happen Gillick!

Rob, nice call on the Encarnacion thing. I hadn't though about him in a while. I don't necessarily think the Reds want to get rid of him, but they do have depth at the position and seemed to have a few issues with him last year.

He struggled defensively early last year and was demoted to the minors. Later in the year he improved his defense to the point where he was making gold glove caliber plays look routine. He also has a good deal of power. He has major upside and I think he will be one of the top 3B in the NL in a couple of years. It would be nice if the Phils could pry him away from the Reds, but I have heard nothing about it thus far.

Inge is not a good option, although he is great on defense and has prodigious power. The only problem is swinging a wooden stick and actually making contact with a white ball. When he does it is something to stare at, but he only does it about 25% of the time.

fljerry: The issue then was that Gooch hadn't played at all at third base for a very long time. It made no sense to trot him out there with no idea how he'd perform in the middle of a playoff race.

ricky: We didn't put him at third, because he didn't want to go to third.

The Reds managers seem to absolutely hate Encarnacion, but I'm not sure if Reds management sees things the same way.

What about Troy Glaus? He should be in Gillick's price range after surgery and a down year.Better than what we have.

Iguchi has only been in the league for a couple seasons after signing as a free agent in 2005. At the end of this season, there was a stipulation that the Phils could either extend him or he would become a free agent. There are no draft picks, etc. involved. Iguchi said he'd rather test open waters to find a 2B job, so he was not extended.

Rickyj21: Iguchi seemed pretty hard on his stance about not moving to 2nd and for good reason. He's good at second and there should be plenty of talk about signing him. However, I read the trade/free-agent rumor sites constantly during the day and I haven't seemed him mentioned very often. Perhaps he isn't finding the free agent market to his liking. I was truly surprised that the Astros threw money at Kaz Matsui over him. So, saying that he is open to 3rd gives him many more options. Lots of teams are looking for talent at 3rd, the Phils, Angels (especially now that Cabrera is gone), twins, and some more...

since Iguchi was not extended there could be problems? Doesn't really sound like a problem to me since he can sign where ever he wants. I'm sure theres a way around this.

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