Friday thread: Phillies say 'no thanks' to Lohse

Pat Gillick confirmed a New York Post report that says the Phillies are out of the running for free agent right-hander Kyle Lohse, who pitched for the club last season. [Link]

Phillies assistant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told the Post that the club would not go beyond three years for Lohse, who went a combined 9-12 with a 4.62 ERA with the Reds and Phillies last season. The Mets are said to be offering the four-year deal he’s seeking.

Beerleaguer: If the Mets want to take it to the Phils, using four seasons of Kyle Lohse as their ammunition, bring it. He’s an average pitcher … The deal for Chad Durbin is one-year, $900,000. At that price, he was worth a shot. … Expect only 'small splashes' between now and spring training. I’d love to see just one more strong offer for someone who could legitimately fill the set-up role, but time is running out. … I keep reading John Parrish's name. This one has 'Phillies' written all over it. Parrish is a 30-year-old fringe LOOGY who had elbow ligament surgery two seasons ago. He’s a product of the Orioles system from back when Pat Gillick was there. He’s pitched for Baltimore and Seattle. They could probably get him at a minor league rate. And he's from Lancaster, Pa. John 'Small Splash' Parrish.

Comments

[SirAlden]

Agreed. Lohse is not worth 10% + of the payroll for 4 years.

The Phillies outsmarted Boras and refused to get into a bidding war.

[Rick]

What does LOOGY stand for? Lefty off of good year?

[GM-Carson]

Reposted from last thread-

On the 12th day of the season,
the Phillies gave to me...
12 over-produced Jim Thome bobbleheads,
11 painful Freddy Garcia starts,
10 measely rbi from Rod Barajas,
9 errors from Wes Helms at 3rd base,
8 inches of Greg Dobbs' sideburns,
7 straight wins over the Mets,
6 fingers of Alfonseca,
5 Pat Burrell illegitimate kids,
4 walks for Chris Coste,
3 playoff losses,
2 middle fingers for Jose Mesa,
1 Ryan Howard stolen base,
and 0 homeruns from No-Hit Nunez.

[GM-Carson]

Reposted from last thread-

On the 12th day of the season,
the Phillies gave to me...
12 over-produced Jim Thome bobbleheads,
11 painful Freddy Garcia starts,
10 measely rbi from Rod Barajas,
9 errors from Wes Helms at 3rd base,
8 inches of Greg Dobbs' sideburns,
7 straight wins over the Mets,
6 fingers of Alfonseca,
5 Pat Burrell illegitimate kids,
4 walks for Chris Coste,
3 playoff losses,
2 middle fingers for Jose Mesa,
1 Ryan Howard stolen base,
and 0 homeruns from No-Hit Nunez.

[GM-Carson]

dangit, sorry for the double post...oh well, double the fun I suppose

[michaelmc]

LOOGY = Lefty One-Out GuY

In other words, a lefty specialist you stick in against a guy who can't hit lefties, and then pull for a more versatile reliever.

[GM-Carson]

LOOGY= Jesse "the enternal" Orosco

[AWH]

Bob Ford's column in the Inky closes like this:

"What remains troublesome is the notion that the Phils will be missing this last, vital piece not because they don't like any of the pitchers enough, but because they don't like them well enough to pay the market rate. Gillick agrees that Lohse or Hernandez could be the right guy, but neither will be at the right price, apparently.

The Phillies are so close to greatness, with an exciting, explosive everyday lineup that doesn't come along very often. It would be a shame if they reach May and the season loses its wheels because Eaton isn't any better, because Kendrick can't recapture his rookie magic, because Moyer finally slams into the age wall, or because Hamels becomes injured again. All of it could happen, some of it certainly will.

Guarding against that in December might be expensive, but it can be done. In May, it will be too late - and too bad."

I think most on this site share the sentiment.

My holiday wish is that the Phillies mgmt act before "the window" closes.

[clout]

All I want for Christmas is a setup guy.

[Dan]

did anyone see the poem in the paper written by Charlie Manuel in the 70's???? It's about Harmon Killibrew...it's pretty clever, i was surprised he knew how to rhyme and not start sentences with "you know, like uh..."

[Andy]

On Feliz and RISP:
Actually, last year Feliz had monumental RISP production (an OBP of .357) (For him to have an OBP over .35 is like anyone else having one over .6.) Over his career, his RISP is uninspiring (an OBP of .294 - what's up with that? Oh, right: no-walk Feliz.) But he truly has over-performed when runners are on second or third (including with the bases loaded.) If he could pretend, every time he's up there, that runners are on second and third, he would be okay.

But he won't. He will suck. And his defense is over-rated. And I will puke every time he swings at pitches out of the strike and taps them to short for an inning- ending double play. Every time.

Please don't do that to me.

[AWH]

"The Phillies outsmarted Boras and refused to get into a bidding war."

I know we've recently had discussions about civility on this site. I recognize that sometimes posters here, myself included, go a little over the top. However, I cannot let the above comment go unanswered.

Alden, I am now convinced you must work for the Phillies. Nothing else can explain the sheer vacuity of that statement. You just don't get it.

First and foremost, building a winning/campionship team is not about outsmarting Boras. It's about building a winning/championship team. The two are not the same thing. They are neither tied together nor mutually exclusive.

Second, even if it were remotely relevant, it's an erroneous statement. This is the Giles/Montgomery Phillies. Based on their track record the last 25+ years in the largest monopoly baseball market - they don't outsmart anybody.

How's that for civility.

[Andy]

"All I want for Christmas is a setup guy."

You mean for the Phils' bullpen, right? I mean, otherwise, I'm beginning to worry about you...

[loctastic]

Lame. I like Lohse. I disagree with J, they'll regret not signing him. Especially when they play the Mets.

Stupid Boras and his hardball negotiating tactics.

[rickyj21]

Andy, I wasn't trying to argue for signing Feliz in any way. The statement that the platoon outperformed Feliz last year was untrue. That was the only part of my argument.

[GM-Carson]

How I see the Phillies 2008 roster as of today:

Starting Lineup:
1. Jimmy Rollins (S)
2. Shane Victorino (S)
3. Chase Utley (L)
4. Ryan Howard (L)
5. Pat Burrell (R)
6. Geoff Jenkins (L)/Jayson Werth (R)
7. Greg Dobbs (L)/Wes Helms (R)
8. Carlos Ruiz (R)/Chris Coste (R)

Bench:
Eric Bruntlett and Chris Snelling. Crackhead, Chris Roberson, is left like a booger on your finger- ready to be flicked off.

Starting Rotation:
1. Cole Hamels (L)
2. Brett Myers (R)
3. Kyle Kendrick (R)
4. Jamie Moyer (L)
5. Chad Durbin (R) or Adam Eaton (R)

Bullpen:
1. Brad Lidge (R)
2. Tom Gordon (R)
3. J.C. Romero (L)
4. Ryan Madson (R)
5. Clay Condrey (R)
The last 2 spots in the 'pen will be some combo of Chad Durbin, Adam Eaton, JD Durbin, Shane Youman, Mike Zagurski, Travis Blackley, Lincoln Holdzkom, or Fabio Castro. If the bullpen stays this way, I will give Sir Patrick an atomic wedgie so bad that he'll need his underwear surgically removed from his anus.

[Andy]

"Durbin, who made 19 starts and 17 relief appearances last season for the Detroit Tigers, will compete for the fifth starter's job"

Anyone know how to contact Zolecki? He forgot to put the quotation marks around the word "compete." (i.e. Durbin will "compete" for the fifth starter's, etc.)

Maybe his editor mistakenly removed them...

[rickyj21]

Lohse depends on the price. I think if he could be had at the rumored 4 year, $9 million per, then that'd be a great deal and he would have nice trade value when our prospects filled all the spots in the rotation and there was no room left for him.

[GM-Carson]

<"All I want for Christmas is a setup guy.">

"You mean for the Phils' bullpen, right? I mean, otherwise, I'm beginning to worry about you..."

*Hey, as the song goes- put on your gay apparel.

[Andy]

Carson, to let you know - I am somewhat offended when you call Roberson "crackhead." It sounds a little mean-spirited and racist.

I really don't want to slam you for it or make a big thing; just letting you know. That's all I'm gonna say.

How is it, incidently, to have a kid at Christmas time? Pretty fun, huh? (It get's better as they get older, too.)

[GM-Carson]

Andy- I had no intent to offend, and just to let all know, I'm an equal opportunity hater- I make fun of everyone- sexual preference, religion, ethnicity, handicap...it's just life, no racism in my soul. We were born the way we are, out of our control, but in my opinion there is no reason we can have fun with it.

[Andy]

ricky - Thanks.
I really was just checking on the Feliz numbers with RISP cause you can get them on his B-Ref splits page. I was surprised by his numbers last year.

Still, his overall RISP numbers are pedestrian (for him!) which means he must have sucked especially bad before last year. Moreover, if the Phil's do hire him as the 3B, I will need some advice on how to clean puke off my keyboard for when I watch on gameday.

[clout]

ricky: The platoon had better OPS than Feliz and that's the single best measure of offense.

[GM-Carson]

I've always been a huge fan of Christmas, and having a baby makes it all the better, especially when I never thought it was possible.

[rickyj21]

Clout, barely. Come on, you can't tell me that the difference between a .722 ops and a .708 ops truely negates the miserable fielding.

If someone has a copy of last years fielding bible, or can point me to a website with the stats from it, I'll be happy to run the numbers to prove out this offense vs defense thing. Or we can let it go, since none of us like the platoon or Feliz and arguing the lesser of two evils is just depressing.

So among the free agents left, who should we be looking at for the bullpen. I think we need a legitimate set up guy for when Gordon goes down and well, for when he's healthy as well.

[GM-Carson]

"Or we can let it go, since none of us like the platoon or Feliz and arguing the lesser of two evils is just depressing."

*Amen to that. I hate the idea of Feliz in Phils pinstripes, and a Dobbs/Helms platoon is sickening.

[Malcolm]

I'd hope the Phils aren't done with the starting pitching race. Benson wouldn't be bad. Nor would any of the low-cost, high-reward guys out there. There are a few.

I have to resign to the fact they're probably done with the bullpen. It'll be Lidge/Gordon/Romero/Madson/Condrey/Youmans/Durbin, or something like that, with the young guys poking their heads through every once in a while.

Urgh. Lightning in a bottle?

[rickyj21]

Has anyone heard anything concrete on whether they are planning to use Mathieson as a starter or a reliever?

[clout]

Malcolm: Does that look like a playoff-caliber bullpen to you?

[Dantheman]

Baseball Prospectus's transaction column yesterday suggested that Detroit should muscle in on our talks for Crede by offering Inge, who has no obvious role after they acquired Cabrera. He strikes me as being an upgrade in the same sense Feliz would be -- decent glove, and poor hitting. Any interest?

[rickyj21]

Inge is very very expensive plus would cost something in trade.

[Malcolm]

Clout, no, that doesn't look like a playoff-caliber bullpenn.

Of course, don't forget we made the playoffs with this lineup:

Myers/Gordon/Romero/Alfonseca/Geary/Mesa/Condrey

So, yeah. They need another back-end guy. Gordon won't pitch all year. Romero won't be Romero 2007. I'd laugh if Youmans was anything close to a good LOOGY. Don't get me started on "The Fake Deal."

I'm just saying they don't seem to be going for the big bullpen chips remaining. Which sucks, but is reality.

[Dave Kingman]

Does anyone really think Lohse is a number 3? The Phils already have enough number 4/5s in Moyer, Kendrick, Eaton. He is not worth the money or years he is going to get.

[AWH]

loctastic, I agree with you to a degree. While I'm not totally sold on Lohse (they don't want to give him 4 years because they expect the youngsters to be ready before then), I don't want him on the Mets.

Simply, if he goes to the Mets, stabilizes their staff and they win the division and the Phils don't make the playoffs, then the Phillies haven't "outsmarted Boras" or anyone else.

They will have outsmarted themselves.

I wonder what Alden will say if that happens?

(While I don't think Lohse is at the same level as Dice-K, overpaying for Dice-K was the difference between winning the WS or finisheing second in the division for the Red Sox, IMO.)

[CY]

PLus, Inge is not very good.

Has anyone thought about bringing in Cantu to compete. He would cost us next to nothing, an I would be surprised if he isn't better that Helms. But who knows, I haven't seen the guy play in a while, and getting cut by the reds can't be a good thnig.

[Tommy Hutton's Wristbands]

Wait. Does Burrell REALLY have 5 illegitimate kids?!!

[RSB]

Carson, I loved your '12 Days of Phillies Christmas'.

On the subject of cheap humor, I'll report my latest baseball dream. This stuff is too bizarre to make up.

I don't know exactly what year this game was supposed to have been taking place, but the Phillies were in their circa 1989-91 road uniforms, with the Independence Hall patch, playing in the Astrodome. In the game itself, however, with the Phillies trailing in the middle innings, Wes Helms rips an ringing RBI double to move the Phils within a run; and, not content with that - he *steals third base*! (Mike Lieberthal is the Astros' catcher.) Problem is, the next hitter is Tim Gradoville. (????) Apparently the Phillies are going through an extreme catching crisis and have to leave Gradoville in to hit. He manages a puny jam shot grounder that squibs up the first base line, and Lieberthal's only play is to first base. But ay caramba - Gradoville runs inside the line and Lieby's throw hits him in the hand and breaks it. He's called for interference and the run is nullified. The Phillies go on to lose by one run.

Somewhere along the way, I'm sure I saw a game just like this...further proof that I'm haunted/possessed by having grown up a Phillies fan.

[Dan]

CY, you may be a better fielder than Cantu....

[Dan]

the poetic stylings of Charles Fuqua Manuel (this is actually pretty clever, ill give him that)...charlie wrote this in the 70's, not sure why the paper ran with it today...

It was a warm day in August when history was made,

And the fans in the boxes were looking for shade.

The bases were loaded, it was the last inning.

From the sound of the crowd, you knew we weren't winning.

When out of the dugout came No. 3,

The last hope for the Twins it was sure to be.

Now legend tells of Casey at the bat,

But today it was the Killer who tipped his hat.

Cursing and swearing came from the stands,

When Harmon was waved back by Rigney's hand.

An astonishing look came over the Brew's face,

When Rigney said, "Manuel is taking your place."

A disbelieving look as he turned around,

Placed his bat in the rack without a sound.

Then from the bench came No. 9,

Who'd been warming the pine for a long, long time.

As he stepped from the dugout came a yell from the stands,

"You can't hit, Manuel, the Killer's our man."

Never before in history had they pinch-hit for the Brew,

Especially with some hillbilly hitting .182.

This was a mockery, a dirty rotten shame,

To pinch-hit for a man who's a sure Hall of Fame.

But Charlie heard not a word as he strode to the plate.

He only noticed the crowd's eyes; they were filled with hate.

"God, help me this one time," kept going through his mind.

"If I ever get a hit, let it be this time."

Jim Palmer looked in and thought, "This should be a cinch,

I'll throw three by this rider of the bench."

Down came the ball with a little white glare,

As Manuel stood watching for he knew it was there.

"Strike one," came the call from the man in blue,

And four pitches later it was 3 and 2.

Now everything rode on the very last pitch.

Would Charlie stay a poor boy or would he suddenly be rich?

The crack of the bat and a long drive to right,

The back of Blair's uniform is the only thing in sight.

The roar from the stands gave a deafening scream . . .

Then Charlie fell out of bed, it was only a dream.

[GM-Carson]

Our old buddy Doug Glanville weighs in on the Mitchell Report- http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3162061

[Reed]

I think Flash has more illegitimate kids. I think Flash has like 12 kids with like 7 different moms.

[Baron von Hayes]

Hey Carson, "crackhead" is offensive, and probably racist. Not to make a big deal out of it, but given that it also isn't actually funny it can't hurt to just omit going forward. Your call, though.

[GM-Carson]

I get the point- my "crackhead" comment was uncalled for. Once again, didn't intend to offend, I truly apologize if my unfunny slang was taken that way. I'm not trying to start a race war or anything, I was wrong, let's move on...

[DPatrone]

Maybe we'll get all of the things we want for Christmas: A starter, A reliever, and a 3b-man. And then the partridge in a pear tree.

Gillick says all of the above as far as players is "more unlikely than likely" before ST. Translation: "I'm working on it but I'm not telling anybody anything". That's what I meant by my "smart like a fox" comment yesterday. Example: 2 weeks agao PG said Jenkins was too pricey...then he signs him for what he wants. He was targeting him all along, whether Rowand re-signed or not.

[Baron von Hayes]

Carson, my apologies, it's over...I misinterpreted your last comment to mean you were going to keep it going. Thanks for being open minded about the content being placed on the board. It's what makes this a great site, and keeps me reading every day.

[Jack]

Clout- I did some research, and according to Baseball Prospectus, Feliz was worth more runs last year than the Dobbs/Helms platoon. I'll be the first to admit that my method is nowhere near scientific, but here's what I came up with.

I used Fielding Runs above Replacement to measure defense and Batting Runs above Replacement to measure offense, so that there would be a similarity between the two metrics (both measure a player's worth relative to an average replacement player).

Feliz in 143 games at 3rd: 5 Runs on offense, 27 on defense (worth 32 runs above replacement player)

Dobbs in 68 games at 3rd: 12 runs on offense, -3 on defense (worth 9 runs above replacement player)

Helms in 68 games at 3rd: -1 runs on offense, -3 on defense (a whopping 4 runs BELOW replacement level)

Therefore, by my calculations, the Dobbs/Helms platoon contributed a total of 5 runs above what a replacement level player would have last year, while Pedro Feliz contributed 32 runs above a replacement level player. DEFENSE MATTERS. At least according to the leading independent statistical research website on the planet. But I guess Clout knows more than they do.

Someone please alert me if something is seriously flawed with my methods ( I don't doubt some part of it is). I'm sure I can find a more thorough way of proving the point that defense is more valuable than Clout believes (and that Dobbs/Helms sucks, although that's a whole different point..)

[Andy]

Actually, Dom, I agree that Gillick is smart like a fox. Only for me it means that he acts like his brain is the size of a little orange animal with a bushy tail. And, since a blind squirrel can sometimes find a nut, I will grant that even a dumb fox can sometimes catch a rat.

[Andy]

Actually, Jack, we wouldn't even need to have anyone bat. We could just put great defensive guys out in the field and, when they saved all those runs, like the 27 that Pedro got his team, it would not matter that the team didn't score at all.

[Andy]

Actually, I just realized that I, actually, began two posts in a row with "actually." Can you actually believe that?

Incidently, Jason, the spam filter actually seems to be working better.

Actually.

[Phrustrated]

Funny thing about the crackhead comment... I haven't spent time with Robey and he actually does an EXCELLENT Dave Chappelle impersonation and what is one of Dave's most well known characters? Tyrone Biggums, the crackhead...

[Phrustrated]

Funny thing about the crackhead comment... I have spent time with Robey and he actually does an EXCELLENT Dave Chappelle impersonation and what is one of Dave's most well known characters? Tyrone Biggums, the crackhead...

[Jack]

Andy, I assume your being ironic and mocking Clout's position on this, correct? You can't honestly think what you said is supposed to be an effective argument.

[Mike H.]

Clout - Does Otsuka qualify as a setup man for you?

[Dave X]

Well, Jack, the problem lies in that last year Helms and Dobbs weren't deployed as a platoon, at least until the end of the year. For the first few months we were forced to see Helms struggle greatly vs RHP, which dragged down his production greatly (OPS+ of 68 overall last year). Also worth consideration is the fact that Nunez got the most ABs during the season, and that BRAR and FRAR (FRAA has the highest correlation to postseason success while OPS's is about zero) are sort of proportional counting stats, in that the more ABs a batter recieves the more positive or negative their BRAR and FRAR will be assuming a constant rate of production.

So assuming that Helms and Dobbs are deployed strictly next year there would be a natural rise in their production, however, it wouldn't be the .800 OPS that both of their splits added together would indicate, it would be somewhere in the .700's since platoons never work to 100% efficiency. I believe it was gone over in depth in Baseball Between the Numbers about how platoons - particularly the right-handed (Helms) side - are rather unpredictable and random.

[brio]

So I suppose Gillick will be satisfied signing a surgically-repaired arm to a 1-year deal while keeping his fingers crossed all season. What a great way to build a championship-caliber team! Sheer genius.

[bay_area_phan]

Jack: I think Andy's mockery was more directed at the ridiculousness of trying to pinpoint the precise number of runs that can be saved by having one defensive player instead of another.

[Jack]

BAP: Fair enough. As I fully admitted, this was a rough look, and defensive metrics are, I think, by nature, somewhat less developed and complete than offensive metrics. However, it was simply a way of using one tool to refute Clout's point that Helms/Dobbs OPS being higher means they are automatically more valuable players. The fact is, defense does matter, and there is a legitimate argument to be made that, especially in this offense, a great defensive 3rd basemen is worth more than Helms/Dobbs (who aren't exactly Albert Pujols with the bat...). Is anyone else even willing to admit that its a possibility? Come on.

Dave X, you are right in the counting nature of the stats, but Helms/Dobbs combined played 136 games at 3rd, and Feliz played 143 games, so they are roughly equal. In fact, Dobbs and Helms should be getting an advantage because I used their overall batting stats, which are aided by the games the played at first/left and pinch hitting.

[CJ]

Dave X has the most valid point (and he stole it right out from under me). The offensive production of Dobbs/Helms was greatly affected by two factors:

1) They weren't a true platoon for much of the year. Using them appropriately will improve their offense.
2) Nunez dragged down our 3B production even further.

I just won't believe that Feliz's slightly above average glove will have enough magic to overcome his god-awful offense.

[dajafi]

I wonder if we're looking at last year in reverse. Twelve months ago it looked like we had six starters; ultimately, just two of them made it to the end of the year. We only have two starters I trust now, plus the motley assortment of Moyer/Kendrick/Eaton/Durbin/Durbin/Blackley/Happ/who knows, plus later Carrasco/Outman/Carpenter/Savery. If we get two pitchers from that first pile, and one more from the second, OR trade in-season from that group for the equivalent of Lohse 2007, I'm not sure we won't come out ahead of last year's rotation.

Among the relievers, meanwhile, I think we're set at the back end with Lidge/Madson/Gordon/Romero. There will be a second lefty from Youman/Castro/Zagurski/Mazone/Blackley. Then there's a group of guys who could be good longman options with upside of a little more: Mathieson/Rosario/Durbin/Durbin/Bisenius.

The Phils don't have many sure things on the pitching staff: Hamels, Myers, Lidge, Madson, Romero maybe. But they have a lot to choose from and a sufficient number of options that if anyone's failing, they can try something else. Not the worst way to build a staff, and preferable to overpaying for the likes of Lohse.

[Jack]

CJ: Nunez's stats have nothing to do with the stats I provided. They are completely independent to the players involved (Dobbs/Helms), not to the overall production of the position.

Do people really think that Dobbs/Helms are that good offensively? They are not. Feliz is worse, but he is way better defensively. I'm not saying Feliz is the answer, but the fact that so many people on here hate him, but support Dobbs/Helms, is ridiculous. We need an upgrade at 3B no matter what, because the fact is Feliz, as terrible as he was offensively last year, was still overall better than Dobbs/Helms once you factor in defense. That's terrible.

[A Modest Proposal]

I'm thinking that we should remove Willie McCovey from the Hall of Fame and replace him with Bobby Wine.

[clout]

Jack: Garbage in, garbage out.

[kdon]

dajafi, I don't think we are looking at last year in reverse, I think we are looking at the 2006 Phillies.

That teams had mostly awful pitchers in the 4 and 5 slots (Floyd, Madson, Mathieson <8 starts!!> for the first half of the season.

Of course that year, we had a young man named Cole to step in, and added Wolf and Moyer down the stretch.

Unfortunately, we don't even have that this year.

Without doing more to address the rotation, this team isn't a playoff team. Based on ZiPS, all the prospective 5th starter candidates have 5.50ish ERAs, and both Kendrick and Moyer project to around 5.00.

[SirAlden]

We need not one but two good arms for the bullpen. Akinori Otsuka, and Damaso Marte or better.

What I feel many people do, who have truly suffered with Monty-Giles: the worst ownership in baseball for over 25 years is that they take their anger, from their lost childhoods, of some of the worst teams ever fielded, and pay it forward and drop it onto the current GM Pat Gillick.

I am not asking you to agree with me, all I am asking is that you are open minded about what I am saying, and then we can agree to disagree.

I believe that Gillick is an adult, and is wise in the ways of baseball, he will not get caught in a bidding war, he swoops in as he did with Mike Lowell, and says, we will give you a 4th year in the contract, yes or no? He does not stand around the bar all night buying a semi-pretty girl drinks because she is the only girl who looks half decent that evening.

His technique with Lohse, is the same, 3 years 30-36 million, 4 years so you can go back to the Mets? Respectfully, no thanks. If the Mets had really offered 4 years 40-48 million, he would have signed already. Just saying no is being an adult, and Lohse may still come back, remember Lohse is not the second coming he is a so-so 4th-5th starter, 3rd in a career year.

I also believe that Gillick does not have absolute power, he must cajole the very same idiot owners who gave us 25 years of misery.
Gillick clearly has two budgets, the stay within the lines budget which he quotes in the papers to keep the owners calm, and he has the GOTO budget if he comes up with something amazing. He has already overpaid 4 + 7 million for Romero and Jenkins in 2010, which is very risky indeed, that 11 million could be used toward a quality 1-2 Starter when he becomes available.

I would hope that more often, that people would imagine they were working for the Idiots Monty/Giles, and separate Gillick from them is all.

We need 4 things. We need 2 relievers, a 3rd baseman either Crede or Beltre, and a 1-2 starter (which it looks like we will not be getting). I believe we will get 1-3 of these needs filled.

As a Boy Scout the first rule is to leave the forest better than you found it. I believe Pat Gillick has clearly done this.

We also have 6 picks in the top 3 rounds next year. Watch to see if the next GM is allowed to go over slot by the Monty-Giles.

[Wayne]

GM Carson, I found a problem with your roster you have 26 players.

[clout]

Mike H: Yes, a healthy Otsuka would qualify.

[clout]

"As a Boy Scout the first rule is to leave the forest better than you found it. I believe Pat Gillick has clearly done this."

Phillies wins in the 3 years before Gillick arrived: 86, 86, 88.

Phillies wins in the 2 years after Gillick arrived: 85, 89.

This is the equivalent of a Boy Scout picking up a single gum wrapper in a 1,000-acre forest.

[kdon]

Jack,

That was a thoughtful and well researched point. Unfortunately, clout never got past the OBP chapter of Moneyball, so he won't understand it.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Feliz made up for his awful bat with the glove. 3B is an important defensive position, and the defensive difference between Feliz and Helms/Dobbs is enourmous.

By most accounts (scouts and stats), Feliz is one of the best defensive 3B in baseball, while Helms and Dobbs are two of the worst.

Considering that Dobbs/Helms didn't actually hit all that well, Feliz probably is a better option.

[Mike H.]

I wanted to establish the benchmark. Thank you. Merry Christmas, Clout.

[rickyj21]

Jack...Don't bother trying, stats are the only thing that matters...except when it comes to proving that Feliz is better than Helms/Dobbs. There is a level of hatred for Feliz on this site, that I have never seen before for any other player.

The point is still simple. Feliz would have been an overall upgrade over our miserable platoon last year. Break-even offensively. Huge upgrade defensively.

No one knows what this year will bring though. Helms/Dobbs could become a great offensive platoon. I think its safe to say that the defensive misery is gauranteed to continue. Feliz could become even worse at the plate, but its reasonable to expect his defense to stay above average. At that point, maybe the Helms/Dobbs platoon would be the better of the two. But for last year, its not even close enough to be arguable.
So while its cool to say Feliz makes you want to puke, I don't disagree, don't just flatly state that he was worse than our platoon, unless you're only looking to damage your credibility.

[MG]

SirAlden: I usually disagree with your posts but I think you are pretty dead-on a couple of points including what the Phils ideally need yet this offseason and Gillick's dealings with ownership.

Only real thing I disagree with you about is that I don't think Gillick as quite as savvy or dynamic as maybe you think. Guess though it is really difficult to tease out what Gillick's is trying to accomplish behind the scenes and what players the Phils actually acquire.

His seeming insistence to acquire players who formally played for him and some of his comments last season lead me to believe that he is viewing his job as the Phils GM as a nice temporary gig. Doesn't have to fix any real substantial problems and make any profound changes. Really get in, get out, and collect some nice bucks to pad his retirement.

[clout]

kdon: That is rank speculation on your part. The flaws in the fielding stats have been pointed out numerous times on this site and the posts above are just the latest. Stats can't quantify everything perfectly and some of them are pretty lame. ZiPS projections for pitchers, for example, and fielding stats that attribute to the fielder things he had no control over.

As for thirdbase being an important defensive position, I agree. But it's not nearly as important as SS, 2B and CF.

[clout]

ricky, Jack, kdon et al: Perhaps Gillick will sign Feliz. Then let's see how things play out.

[MG]

dalafi - I don't understand your logic about the Phils' pitching. I would make the case that the Phils have less overall pitching depth than last season particulary in their starting rotation.

Even in the bullpen, I think they don't have set at the back-end as you think. Call me crazy but I think the most "sure-thing" from a performance perspective at this point is actually Madson if he can stay healthy.

Gordon is a train-wreck waiting to happen, Romero might get exposed if he is used more against righties, and even Lidge has not been lights out as a closer the past 2 years. Plus, you basically have a ton of pretty unattractive options to fill out the last 2-3 spots right now in the bullpen.

My takeaway is that any team that is desperately scouring the waiver wire for pitching help is well suited in that regard and this is the most obvious sign.

[bay_area_phan]

Jack: I agree with you to a point. Defense may be difficult to quantify but that doesn't mean it's not important. Here's the problem, though. Because it's so difficult to quantify a player's defensive contributions, it's treading on some pretty speculative territory when a team signs an inept offensive player on the theory that his defense will save more runs than his offense prevents.

Your premise is that the number of runs that Feliz would prevent, and which Dobbs/Helms wouldn't prevent, exceeds the number of additional runs that the Phillies would score with Dobbs/Helms in the lineup. That may or may not be true. Without more empirical evidence to support your premise, I'm unwilling to take the leap of faith by bringing in a guy who I know for a fact is a lousy offensive player. Besides, I also think his defense is significantly overrated.

Ricky, Jack, you have my permission to continue to rave about Feliz. Really, feel free.

Nunez career OBP - .313

Feliz career OBP - .288

Just come up with a nickname for someone who is worse when batting than "No-Hit."

[Dave Kingman]

Nothing to show for the Abreu and Padilla trades. The so called "great" Thome trade left with nothing of value (unless you believe Castro will be anything) Rowand gone Gio Gonzalez traded back to CWS. Gio without a doubt would have been the best Phillies prospect and probably able to help by the middle of next season but he was lost because Gullick never thought to have an MRI done on Garcia. Sir Alden, please don't tell me that the Abreu trade was done to free up salary. Look how that was used; Garcia, Eaton, Helms and Barajas. Boy, is Gullick shrewd!

[Dave Kingman]

Forgot to mention the phillies will still be paying part of Thome's salary next year.

[Angus]

Pretty amusing post so far, from Christmas carols to boy scouts...I personally think that this guy Feliz is a bum and would be pissed if they signed him. I live in NYC and got to see alot of Yankees games this year. That Betemit is not bad with alot of pop. I wonder if we could swing a Farnsworth-Betemit package for Hems-Eaton or something like that. Thoughts? I know what your going to say, he is fat and slow with no range, but I think he could rake at The Zen.

[rickyj21]

Clout, how many times did I say I wasnt advocating the signing of Feliz, that I was just arguing with your offhand blanket false statement that the platoon was better than him.

However, at least we'd only have to complain about half of Felizs game, rather than offense and defense of the platoon.

[rickyj21]

I would absolutely love Feliz, but I can't imagine the Yankees would be willing to give him away.

[rickyj21]

That's supposed to say Betamit!!

[JB]

clout - like another poster it is unusual to side with SirAlden but I need to question your analogy:

"This is the equivalent of a Boy Scout picking up a single gum wrapper in a 1,000-acre forest."

The Phil's did get to the playoffs last year although no credit should be given to Gillick's work.

This accomplishment was under his watch which is a tremendous positive difference to what happened the three previous years.

[Dave Kingman]

It was only a "tremendous positive difference" because the Mets choked. Do you think 89 wins will win the division in 08? Do you think this team will even win 89 in 08 with only 2 good starters, one who has a significant chance to miss time due to injury and the other who wants to be a closer?

[Andy]

But Kingman, we also have Vic Darensbourg.

[Andy]

(You know: and Blackley and Mazone and two Durbins. Without Gillick we might not have had any of thosed guys.) (Except Mazone, who really came back cause he was tired of eating seaweed in his stromboli.)

[Andy]

ricky, how can you doubt that the Yanks would much rather have Helms than Betemit? After all Helms is better in the following categories:

.

.

.

.

.

(and so on)

[rob]

I thought Darensbourg was a smelly cheese.

[JB]

Dave Kingman - just stating the facts, not justifying or qualifying them.

If the METS choked then maybe the Phils were the better team?

[Dave Kingman]

Who cares who plays third, unless this team gets a legit number two/three starter and two BP arms they will not make the playoffs.

[Mike]

For what it's worth, Zolecki thinks the Phillies are done this offseason. There was a comment fro PG in his blog entry today that was disheartening.

[Dave Kingman]

JB, yes the Phillies won the division, but which team do you believe had the better talent? Should Gullick get credit for this? I actually would be more willing to give Manuel more credit for holding this team together after the Garcia disaster.

[Alby]

Amid all this unusual agreement with SirAlden, I'll toss in a quibble: "that 11 million could be used toward a quality 1-2 Starter when he becomes available [in 2010]."

That's not true even today; Silva's signing puts the price of an inning-eater at $12 million per. That will be up to $14 million by 2010, when a top-level starter will probably command more like $17-$18 million. I hope I'm wrong, but over the past decade I've usually been wrong on the low side when looking a few years out like that.

[rob]

UM, Kingman..? The Phils had more talent man for man especially in their line-up.. Pitching gives a slight edge to Mets.. primarily because of Billy Gag-ner

[Dan]

Betemit could be had....think he was brought in as insurance in case A Rod opted out and didn't return...people dont like somethin about he's bounced around quite a bit for having potential...seems lazy...he only hit like .225 last year

Rob, I think Wright, Beltran, Reyes, Delgado, Alou, Lo Duca and Green match up pretty well.

[Grumpy Gramps]

Kingman, from May 1st to Sep 1 the Phils were 1/2 game better than the Mets. [p 60-40 vs. m 60-50] If you wish to backtrack to the last part of April after the Phils poor start, then it's even more slanted to the Phils. Talent and fringe players tell over the long hall. We can leave the Mets September swoon out of it. Of the players you mentioned the only one I'd like is Wright.

Happy Holidays to all the B/L's

[Grumpy Gramps]

Sorry for the typo
Phils 60-49
Mets 60-50

[Andy]

rob:
Darensbourg is a very well-aged cheese.

[rob]

Have you noticed Kingman, that Shawn Green is way below avg for a corner OF? only slightly better than Helms-Dobbs... Also Alou is verrry good---- for about 325-375 AB a yr. Hey there was only 1 game difference between them... There's lots to nit pick