Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Minors: Phils add new coaches to development staff | Main | Mitchell Report to air baseball’s dirty laundry today »

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Comments

For that price, they can have him.

He can go to Denny's for the early bird special with that lineup. The only problem will be the conversation, unless he learns a spanish alliteration for "fence face."

No way he comes close to replicating last year's stats ever again. Outside of Philly, he is a nice player, but not a 12 million/yr player. No way.

Question: Are the Phillies better now than they were at the end of the season. I say no.

Inevitable...gotta follow the money. Hope he can get used to losing 90 games a year.

So we get a sandwhich pick and a 2nd round pick?

I think it was a 'risk' well worth taking when you consider all the things Rowand brings to the table beyond his abilities on the field. That's what makes it a good move for the Giants, who badly need a healthier clubhouse environment. Everyone knows Rowand isn't likely to perform at the level he did last season, but even if you subtract modestly from his totals, he's still a damn good player with strong leadership qualities. And for all this concern about 'reckless abandon', he's only been disabled in *one* season. The Phils play it conservatively yet again and their off-season is subsequently a giant bust - yet again. They now can do nothing which can possibly make their team stronger than it was in 2007.

I will miss him, but I never would have paid that. Thanks for the good couple of years.

I understand not paying 5 years at 12 million per, but I'll say this: we sure as hell better bust slot with those draft picks given that we don't get a first rounder for losing him...not that we will.

From last thread:

ae: Looks like a baffling move to me too for a rebuilding team. Only thing I can figure is that it's an attitude replacement for the clubhouse, post-Bonds. They'll go all kids and hope AR's attitude is infectious.

rob: Huff is a below-average fielder at all 4 corner positions. Ideally, he's a platoon DH. I don't think the O's would part with him cheaply and I don't think he's good enough for the Phils to spend much.

Congrats to Rowand. He gave us his best year. I'm sure he will get a warm welcome when the Giants come to Philly. Now the important question. What will the Phils get from his signing? First round? Second?

$12 million a year? The rumor I read was $16m/yr. Fuhgeddabaddit. Rowand's unlikely to age well, and he won't make the difference for a team on which he's probably the best hitter.

Mr J: Maybe there's another Blalock brother we could sign.

They now can do nothing which can possibly make their team stronger than it was in 2007.

RSB, that's just crazy. I completely agree with the assertion that they will do nothing to improve the team, but it's patently obvious that they could do so if they wanted to spend a little money. Rowand going off the FA market has no effect on that.

Are the Giants really 'rebuilding'? They took a nosedive last season but they have the foundation of a strong young pitching staff and some solid position players. Not a hopeless situation or a lock to lose 90 games, by any means.

ae: so what is it they could do to effectively offset the loss of Rowand? Sign a .500 pitcher for the same amount of money it would have taken to keep him in the first place?

Cain, Lincecum, Zito, and Lowry is a pretty good rotation but they're still pretty old in the field. Vizquel, Durham, Klesko, Winn, Roberts, etc.

RSB: I agree they don't need a wholesale rebuild. Not with Zito, Cain, Lincecum and Lowry in the rotation. A few moves and they will compete again. They need more though.

RSb, what exactly do you consider "solid offensive players."

And while no team is a "lock" to do anything, considering that the team lost 91 last year, and is losing the most productive offensive player in the history of the damn sport, and I would say 90-100 is a pretty good bet.

Terrible move for the Giants. Fans aren't too thrilled.

5 years at his price was too much... I'm glad I don't have to sit here 3 years form now and here all fo the "crippling Rowand Contract discussions".

Intangibles aside, his production can be replaced.

Good luck with that!

The Giants are going to be horrible! This was obviously about the money and not about Rowand wanting to join a winner.

Check out the lineup:
C- Bengie Molina
1B- Rich Aurilia
2B- Ray Durham
SS- Omar Vizquel
3B- Kevin Frandsen
OF- Randy Winn
OF- Aaron Rowand
OF- Dave Roberts

That would be an amazing lineup if it were 1998!

As everyone's said, if that's the price and years it wouod've taken to bring Rowand back, I'll pass.

I said, solid position players. Rowand would be one of them. Winn, Durham, Molina, and Vizquel may be past their prime, but aren't too shabby. And I don't think it's a compelling argument to suggest that organization won't be better off without Bonds around.

The Giants do need more, certainly, but they're not as bad as some would portray.

I'd say theres a very good chance Victorino is the better player next season.

Here, BTW, are the OPS+ figures from last years starters (I added Rowand and subtracted Bonds):

C - 86
1B - 92
2B - 65
3B - 81
SS - 62
LF - 80
CF - 123
RF - 105

Aside from Bonds and Randy Winn (105), the only players on last years teams with an OPS+ over 100 were: Fred Lewis (103), Dan Ortmeir (107), and Mark Sweeny (102), none of whom cracked 157 ABs.

Keep in mind, OPS+ adjusts for ballpark! This offense sucks, and by adding Rowand, it will still suck. He is going from being the 4th or 5th best offensive player on his team to being the main guy.

They need a lot more pieces before even stiffing .500.

ESPN is reporting Tejada to Houston for five dudes, one dude being Costanzo the other Scott.

God, you all should be ripping the Phillies here and instead you're lumping in with the whole conservative Montgomery/Gillaro mindset - "five years is too much. five years is too much." What, and there would have been this huge impact on the team's fortunes in the deal was for four years and not five? Everyone just knows that in that fifth year, Rowand would have first hit .218 and then shattered every bone in his body on July 1? Ridiculous. If you want good players, you have to step up and pay for them. Who are the Phillies going to develop in the next few years who can step in and provide power and/or defense in the outfield? No answer. Who are the Phillies in a position to trade in order to acquire adequate positional talent in that time frame? Oh, I know - they can just always just turn to the FREE AGENT market, where everyone knows the Phillies will go after the next viable option, the way they always do.

RSB: Vizquel and Durham are very, very shabby!!!

I'm assuming you are just going on reputation, and didn't actually look at what they did last year.

I'll spare you the advance metrics that basically place them as the offensive equivilent of Abe Nunez: Vizquel hit .246 last year, Duhram .218!

ANd Molina has a nice glove, but is about the offensive equivilent of Barajas.

Even with a low standard of "solid," I would say only Winn fits the bill.

RSB, given that Aaron Rowand 2008 most likely would not offset the "loss" of Aaron Rowand 2007, I don't think it's a big deal.

but if you want a concrete strategy, how about this series of moves: sign Ensberg, Jenkins, Vizcaino, Wise, and Benson. dump Helms for whatever. you got:

C Ruiz / Coste
1B Howard
2B Utley
3B Ensberg / Dobbs
SS Rollins / Bruntlett
LF Burrell / Snelling
CF Victorino
RF Werth / Jenkins

SP Hamels
SP Myers
SP Kendrick
SP Moyer
SP Benson / Eaton

RP Wise
RP Madson
RP Mahay
RP Romero
RP Gordon
RP Lidge

obviously very little of that has any chance of happening because as noted the Phillies simply aren't going to spend money and that could easily cost more than $20M in total (maybe $5M for Ensberg, $7M for Jenkins, $4M for Vizcaino, $1M for Wise and $5M for Benson). and many of those guys you could switch out with roughly comparable players depending on your individual preferences. but I'd take my chances with a team built along those lines.

RSB, if the numbers really are 5/60, than I think the Phils *should* be ripped.

12 per is not bad at all. And Rowand makes way more sense for the Phils than the Giants. There isn't offensive player they could acquire right now that would help them as much as Rowand.

Considering that the Phils are right at the edge of making the playoffs, this would be exactly the kind of deal they should have made.

I agree - I think that's a pretty reasonable contract if that's what it is, and one which was absolutely within this franchise's ability to handle. A disgrace that this is the way they react to the windfall they raked in last season. Really, a goddamned disgrace.

ESPN.com confirms the price. $60M/5 years.

so the Phillies don't sign a mediocre defensive/average hitting 30-year-old CF to a five year contract when they have a excellent defensive/average hitting 27-year-old CF who is essentially free, and that's a "goddamned disgrace"?

of course I know how objective you are RSB, and I assume you'll feel exactly the same way when Burrell isn't resigned next year.

Honestly, given my options, I rather have Jenkins (7m per) in right, an extra 2 picks in the first 2 rounds, and a good relief pitcher (4m per) and a mediocre relief pitcher (1m per) than Rowand by himself.

Victorino will play a better defensive center field, and a platoon of Werth/Jenkins would put out better offensive production than Rowand.

**I don't actually think we'll sign Jenkins, but this was to make a point that not signing Rowand isnt a disaster**

Phillies First Round Pick
Sandwich Pick
S.F Second Rounds Pick
Phillies Second Round Pick
Phillies Third Round Pick
3rd Round Sandwich Pick for Workman

Eric Burns of the Diamondbacks is a better player, and he made the mistake signing for 3 years and 30 million.

Would not have gone past 4 years and 40 for Rowand. Congratulations on your payday Aaron and thanks for your hard nosed play for the Phightin's.

ae - yeah, that'd be all well and good if they had a right fielder to replace that new CF. But they don't. And forgive me for 'unobjectively' suggesting that whoever they run out there at that position next season won't begin to compensate for Rowand's absence in the lineup.

It's just crazy how much of a difference this one career year by Rowand makes on his new contract. If he had had a year along the lines of his "career norms" last year, what kind of contract would he be looking at this summer? 3 yrs, 30 mil? Would he even be worth that much if he hit .275/.340/.440 last year instead of .309/.375/.515?
I really can't get over the fact that he easily could have doubled his money earned based on just one career year in a bandbox such as CBP.
Obviously, his defense and intangibles can't be underrated, especially in a big park such as AT&T. But come on, it really seems a bit much to me...

I actually think you'll see Rowands defense exposed in a bigger park with more room to cover. At least he wont have to worry about the fences though.

20 million here... 20 million there...

Pretty soon it starts ending up being real money.

How would Jimmy Rollins at 7.5 million per feel with Rowand batting .265 next year and making 12.5 million?

Anybody else really happy we didnt sign Rowand for that amount of cash? I would hate to see what Rowands numbers are going to be like when he's 35, which is what he'll be in his "contract year."

I dont think we can *easily* replace his power, but I think if we make a move our two garner some of it back (Jenkins? Ensberg?) then the losing of Rowand will be much more palatable.

Just my thoughts.

Can't help but to compare Rowand's deal to Torii Hunter's, Jose Guillen's and Fukudome's. That, for what it's worth, good or bad, is market value. I'm looking forward to tracking his OPS+ considering his splits of AT&T Park at 85, Dodger Stadium at 206 (!), and Petco at 22 (!!).

And RSB, "them" don't react when it comes to spending money. "them" react when it comes to maximizing profit.

SF has to leap over three 85+ wins teams. I don't envy Brian Sabean right now.

Good Luck, Aaron! I'm glad you're getting paid, because you won't see the playoffs again during your 5 years in San Fran. The division is too young and too tough.


Rowand's production CAN be replaced. The question is WILL the Phillies replace it?

Based on "them's" track record - NO.

Does Gillick have a few tricks up his sleeve?

Maybe.

Maybe he has some trades lined up, but is waiting to see who of the non-tendered players can be used to fill a hole before he pulls the trigger on the trade(s).

His options are dwindling every day, with every trade, and every signing by another team.


So, Seattle Stew, maybe you and "them" can get to work at 12:01 tomorrow morning to try to improve your baseball team, because right now it's not as good as the team that finished the 2007 season.

The Bay Area can be a very appealing place to live, so I can't fault Rowand for that. However if the Phils offered him something like 3yrs/40 million ... well, call me hopelessly naive but I do wonder whether the extra 20 MILLION DOLLARS, will leave the Rowand family that much more financially secure??
He did succeed though, in putting a healthy distance between himself and a playoff appearance.

good news: phils get 2 drafts picks from the giants. bad news: because the giants' first round pick is in the top 15 and those picks are protected each year, the phils only get a sandwich (between rounds 1 and 2) pick, not an elite first round pick, plus a second round pick.

Rowand's production CAN be replaced. The question is WILL the Phillies replace it?

Based on "them's" track record - NO.

that is exactly my point, although it would seem that RSB disagrees.

You know there is a very good chance that even if the Phillies resigned
Rowand they wouldn't have been able to replace Rowand’s production.

Alden,, once again, for the slow people like you:

"It's not the money, stupid!"

It doesn't matter if it's $1 Million or $50 Million or whether it adds up to "real money". It's about doing something to make the baseball team better.

If that means spending money, so be it. If it means making a trade, so be it.

If it means trading an expensive player for a bunch of cheap prospects and THE TEAM IS BETTER - then do it.

Get it?

Really?

Do you?

That's all anyone here really cares about - making the team BETTER. Right now it's not.

The difference between you and the astute posters on this site is that they understand the realities of the marketplace.

You obviously are comfortable with having an embarrassment of an owner like Jeffrey Loria, since you either don't understand or care that this group of "them" do care more about money than actually winning.

Move to Miami, Bozo!

Oh, and Alden, to answer your question about how JRoll would feel:

I think he would feel great, because he'd know he'll be due for another big payday when his deal is up. He's an MVP. If the Phillies try to extend him in a year or two he'll make Rowands deal look shabby.

Or, did you not think that far ahead (as usual)?

Bottom half of the lineup is pretty bleak:
Burrell
Werth
Dobbs/Helms
Ruiz
Howard will BB 200 times and K 200+. Where will the runs come from?

I disgree that the Phillies either CAN or WILL suitably replace Rowand's production, even if that production were to decline by a full quarter next season. Rowand had 72 extra-base hits next year from the right side. The Phillies won't be seeing those again anytime soon.

Rowand's departure also means that the Phillies will have little choice but to re-sign Burrell after next season. Barring a vintage-2003 bomb, Burrell is almost certain to command at least $12 million a year. He is nowhere near the asset that Rowand is. Nowhere NEAR.

Five years ago, nearly to the week, the Phillies' fan base was stunned into submission at the news that the team had won the Jim Thome sweepstakes. Now it's all come full circle, and we know to view that as a circumstantial fluke. It's reverted all the way back to Business as Usual. What I keep thinking of is Billy Wagner's assertion that Phillies are concerned only with being 'good, not great'. Boy, does that ring true right now.

"72 extra-base hits next year"

Uh, last year.

RSB, we knew what you meant. And as to your poat - SPOT ON (except for what Burrell will command in the open marketplace)!

Good one B Dub!

Just to avoid some possible screaming matches, can we distinguish between two separate debates.

Debate 1: Should the Phillies spend more than the $100M that appears to be the artificial cap...and

Debate 2: *Given* the fact that the Phils *will* not spend much over $100M, what is the best way to allocate that money.

It seems that AWH and RSB's anger is over Debate 1 (D1). If that's the case, than I think you are both expending a lot of unnecessary energy - almost no one here disagree with this.

However, people like ae and Alden seem to be arguing debate 2, that Rowand simply isn't worth that kind of money to a team with a fixed payroll.

Basically, the people yelling about D1 don't want to hear about D2, because they think it somehow substantiates the imposed cap. Well, it doesn't - you can agree that the Phils should spend more *and still* think that Rowand would not have been a good signing.

The runs will be there, brio, even with no additions the 2008 lineup is equal to or slightly worse than the 2006 lineup that lead the NL in runs.

Again, RSB, you are assuming that '08 Rowand will duplicate '07 Rowand with that 72 figure. Based on his age and track record, don't be surprised if many here don't want to make that assumption with you.

I'd be willing to put a decent wager that a platoon of Werth/Jenkins would exceed 72 extra base hits.

My answers are:

D1 - Yes, up to $105 miilion.

D2 - Whatever logically improves the run differential from +71 last year to at least +100 in 2008. The only team that did this in the National League last year is Colorado, with a +102. I don't care if it's done either by pitching or batting.

This was inevitable. Still think it was a stupid signing by Sabean who suddenly had made a serious of horrendous the last two offseasons.

Where to start:

1. Overpaying Zito by $30 million?
2. Sign washed retreads like Roberts and Aurilia last year to more than 1-year
3. Chulk-Accardo trade
4. Foolish extension to Ray Durham

The Rowand signing is very similiar to last year when the Giants were getting desperate and completely overpaid for Zito. Why sign a 30-year CF who is going to be past his prime when this team might be a legit contender in 2-3 years down the road?

Better to suck it up for one more year and make a legit run at a superstar next year. There is no way the Giants contend with their lineup of punch-and-judy hitters next year.

Well, if you want to talk D2, please prepare to justify the prospect of Ryan Howard taking up nearly a fifth of that allocation by 2009 at the latest.

I am sad to see Rowand go. His production from last season will be sorely missed even if he won't have duplicated it here this year. Phils are now an injury anyway in the OF from having one of the worst OFs in the NL. Even Burrell, Victorino, Werth is league average at best. Who plays CF if the Flyin Hawaiian goes down?

I am sure Sir Alden is overjoyed with the draft picks though. That might pay big dividends in 2010 or 2011. I can't wait.

Hard to find a silver lining the last month with the Phils. Not a single move of substance.

Phils look like they are content to lean on JRoll, Utley, and Howard to really carry them this year on offensive. Hope they are up to the challenge.

kdon, you've got me wrong. I am on record here pretty clearly if you read my previous posts.

I DON'T CARE how much the Phillies spend or what any individual player makes or whether "them" pocket $1 or $100,000,000 at the end of a season.

To parapharase a previous post of mine:

All I care about is that the team I root for and follow makes a legitimate (read that as 'not lip service') attempt to win.


For 25 years we've gotten mostly lip service from "them". Either that, or they just aren't that competent. Or maybe it's a little of both.

My fear right now is that 2007 was a "lightning-in-a-bottle" event just like 1993.

The way this off-season is unfolding, and "them's" track record , I'd estimate that fear has a better than 50% chance of happening.

If they go into 2008 with this group, they won't make the playoffs.

well, for whatever it's worth, I think I've made it pretty clear that I don't think Howard is going to be worth 20% of this team's payroll.

and kdon, I don't think that's my argument. I'm not necessarily saying that Rowand is or isn't worth 5/$60M. I am saying that the fact that he isn't going to be on the Phillies this year is not in itself the problem. to quote myself: "I completely agree with the assertion that they will do nothing to improve the team, but it's patently obvious that they could do so if they wanted to spend a little money."

"Well, if you want to talk D2, please prepare to justify the prospect of Ryan Howard taking up nearly a fifth of that allocation by 2009 at the latest."

RSB, this is exactly why I don't think they'll be ale to sign Howard long-term. He will be traded just like Cabrera before he becomes a FA.

ae, correct. But with "them" it's not about spending "a little money", it's about trying to find "value", as evidenced in their signing of Nunez, Helms, Eaton, and others.

It's the frugal Philadelphia Quaker mentality.

Crazy ass day, I agree with Clout, MG and BAP while AWH, RSB and Alby are on my crap list.

Starting to wonder if I'm losing it or if "them" are slowly getting to me since I actually tried to figure out how to fill all our holes with only $10 million.

AWH - While I am as frustrated as you, this team isn't a flash in the pain like the '93 team was. Even now, they will have a decent chance to contend in a water-downed NL East next year as long as they don't endure a litany of injuries to almost every key player again.

They just will be hard pressed to win 88 or 90 games though and will need some breaks to do so.

By the way... from the Astros fans' perspective down here in SW Louisiana... most can't believe they mortgaged their farm for an aging SS who's range is dimishing and who will likely be on the steroid report.

They can't figure out how they'll field a minor league team, and with their pitching outside of Oswalt, they're not sure they can field a major league staff.

Ed Wade strikes again....

Joke of the day, from Metsblog...

Comment by metsrbest
2007-12-12 16:58:49
Now if we can only somehow get Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out of the NL East we’ll really all be set!

Oh, if it were only that easy, fellas...

I don't agree, RSB, that Burrell is "nowhere near the asset that Rowand is, nowhere NEAR." He's a better hitter than Rowand, a vastly more disciplined hitter, and though he's a worse fielder, anyone watching the Phillies day in and day out could tell you that, a few highlight-reel catches notwithstanding, Rowand's far from being a Gold Glover himself.

MG, unless they make the playoffs again............................................... they are no more than the '93 team.

RickyJ: "...his [Carrasco's] K rate was actually the same as Pattons at equal levels at equal ages...could you look at stats before running your mouth?"

Carrasco:
Rookie League: 6.38
Low A: 7.04
Mid A: 8.98
High A: 6.85
AA: 6.27

Patton:
Rookie: 10.29
Low A: skipped
Mid A: 10.75
High A: 9.06
AA: approx. 6.8
AAA + MLB: approx. 5.0

Right. Glad he's not your boy. What were you saying about running my mouth?

Keith Law on the Tejada trade:

"Houston is probably two more moves away from reaching .500, and they've already sacrificed a good chunk of the tradeable assets in their farm system in making this trade. What's more, by 2010, this could easily be one of the worst teams in baseball, with little help coming from the farm, Tejada probably gone to free agency, and two 34-year-old bats in Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee making a combined $33 million."

If Rowand was so valuable many teams would have been after him. They weren't. 60 million Dollars for someone who is a good guy is insane. Has had 2 really good years and 4 really really average years, and is below average in all fielding range Saber's.

Would be a good signing at 30 Mil for 3 years, as Eric Burns, and average signing at 40 Mil at 4 years. 60 Mil is 20 Million too much.

Carlos Carrasco is no Tim Lincecum, but SF and the Jays were talking a Rios for Lincecum swap before they signed Rowand....any chance Phils jump in there with Carlos and something else and go after Rios?

wishful thinking, huh?

San Francisco is in an unenviable position: Barry Bonds is leaving and there are no other assets to market. Someone speculated Rowand has been brought in to set a tone in the clubhouse, and I think that's exactly what they'll need. The Mitchell report is going to set off a stink bomb in there, and they're going to need someone with Rowand's combative but positive attitude to deal with it.

I'm not at all sure it will work out that way, but I imagine that's what Sabean has told himself to justify the signing. They have some good young pitchers; Sabean (or his successor) will sink on swim on whether they choose the right ones to trade and the right ones to keep. I can see Rowand being part of a winning team 4 years from now, though likely in just a supporting role. Maybe it'll be at too high a price but criminy, who knows how much outfielders will be making by 2012?

Mike H, Howard will wind with either NY team or Boston, as they'll be the only teams willing to pay him, IMO.

Delgado will be older and retired, Giambi will be gone, and 1B in Boston has been a revolving door for years.

All three of those teams will welcome the opportunity to put 45-55 HR and 120+ RBIs in their lineups.

Torii Hunter just got 5/90, but is nowhere near the run producer that is Howard. Yes, he plays a much more important defensive position, but I'll bet Howard's offense balances out Hunter's defensive superiority. Howard wants a 9 figure contract, and unless he gets hurt he'll get it somewhere. "Cadillacs are down at the end of the bat." [Ralph Kiner]

I just don't think "them" are willing to make the commitment, so I think the window is going to close on this group of core players faster than most realize.

Phans~

The Rowand signing doesn't shock anyone, does it? We knew it was going to happen. Whether it was the Giants, KC etc., it doesn't may=tter. He's officially gone now so that's that. His father lives on the West coast and his mother here. He supposedly really liked Philly and wanted to stay but "them" has/had other ideas.

I have no problem with Vic in CF (younger, faster, better arm). The thing is, now 3B and RF MUST be upgraded offensively. IF (and I doubt it) that happens, then Rowand's departure shouldn't hurt much. If it doesn't happen, then we're in trouble.

We know SOMETHING will happen. But we don't know what or who. We all know the reason(s) why they get players here or to stay. Trying to sign guys away from better orgs. such as Boston is virtually imopossible. And to retain our own "them" will have to really overpay. They did for Romero. They won't for anyone else, anywhere.

Another thing we don't know really is to what extent any negotiations with anyone progressed. Gillick, while I'm not defending him is pretty good at not letting on to what he's trying to do, or if he's trying at all. But when he called the resigning of Rowand a longshot, he was telliung the truth. In most cases with players it's ONLY about the money. The Phils made a value judgement in Rowand's case and while I don't disagree with that decision totally I can't say I agree either. Vic will be a fine CF'der. What the Phils do in other areas will determine if their value judgement was correct. Apparantly they're not the only team that thought 5/60 for ARow was too much.

I doubt Gillick can improve the team but we shall see. We'll have lots to talk about either way.

Sorry I meant "Can't get players here to stay".

Alden, by your logic any arbitrary salary level set by YOU would be a good signing.

Is this team as good without Aaron Rowand? Yes or No? It's a very simple question.

Have the Phillies been successful in improving the team? Yes or No? Another simple question.

Are their options dwindling while Gillick and "them" sit around and wait for 'the market to develop'? Yes or No? It's a simple question.

The Phillies don't need to be the Yankees with an all-star at every position. If they're just league average around Utley, Howard, Rollins and Hamels they'll have a shot ever year. But they're not. Not in RF, not at 3B, not in the bullpen and not in the rotation.

How would you fix it, genius?

When is the earliest that Ryan Howard could become an free agent? I'm thinking it's after the 2011 season, but I may be wrong in that.

I don't know if this has been posted here yet, I didn't see it, but Jerry Crasnick lists the Phils' lineup as the best in the NL, without Rowand.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove07/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3151453

Only if you are going by the singular metric of OPS can you claim that Burrell is a better 'hitter' than Rowand. He's a better walker - that's all. Rowand strikes out about as much and has slightly less homerun power but hits tons more doubles, and has a lifetime batting average (which still factors significantly when evaluating HITTING ability) 28 points higher. Defensively, there's no comparison; I know he isn't as good as his reputation, but Rowand is certainly an above average defensive outfielder, while Burrell doesn't touch average. As a presence in the clubhouse, there's no comparison. I stand by my claim that Rowand is a far greater asset and investment than Pat Burrell.

"Only if you are going by the singular metric of OPS can you claim that Burrell is a better 'hitter' than Rowand. He's a better walker - that's all."

So to paraphrase, the only reason Pat Burrell is considered better is because he gets on base more often?

I'm with you, RSB. I can't believe so many people are happy the Phils passed on Rowand. Was he overpaid? Who cares? The simple fact is Rowand's departure leaves yet another hole in their lineup and I don't see a righthanded bat on the market who can fill it. And, as an added bonus, next year they'll have two holes in the outfield once Burrell leaves.

The Phils have an amazing young core for the next four years. They have a chance to become the class of the National League if they surround these guys with talented role players. Yet they just let one of the best righthanded bats on the market walk out the door.

The Phils are worried about overpaying in 2012. I'm worried that by 2012 the Phils will still be without a championship despite having Utley, Howard and Hamels in their prime.

Bottom line, Rowand had a career year. I would be surprised if he ever has a year like he did in '07. Let the Giants foolishly overpay for him. Of course, the Phils probably won't do much to replace him. Best of luck Aaron, however I won't miss your candy arm or your mounting strikeouts (especially as last year wound down).

Now only if the Phils would sign Jenkins, Wise, and Vizcaino. Then trade for either Rolen, Crede, or Blalock. That being said, they will probably only do one of those three (if that)... Effin' cheap bastards...

I never thought I'd actually write the following words, but SirAlden is right. 5 years, $60M for Rowand is insane. Although I do think last year was an anomaly of sorts, I was still in favor of resigning Rowand on the theory that he's a lot better than Jayson Werth & a lot better than just about any other available outfielder. Still $60M for Aaron Rowand is nuts, by almost any measure. Even if the Phillies boosted payroll by the $15 or $20M I'd like them to boost it by, a 5-year, $60M deal to Aaron Rowand would STILL be a poor use of resources. I suspect this may be another case like the Zito deal, in which the Giants wound up essentially bidding against themselves. No one else seemed too interested in giving Rowand a 5-year deal.

You will never hear me begrudge a player his right to play for the highest bidder. But I think it's ironic that Rowand has cultivated this image of being a team-first guy who is "all about winning" yet he wound up choosing a team with one of the more hopeless situations in all of baseball.

I suspect this is going to turn out to be one of these deals where no one's happy. The Phillies will be unhappy when they realize that Jayson Werth isn't Aaron Rowand. The Giants will be unhappy when they realize they're on the hook for $60M to a guy who hits .275 with 16 homeruns and a .325 OBP. And Rowand will be unhappy when he realizes that the Giants have the worst starting lineup in baseball & will very likely lose 105 games next year.

Patrone, nice post. Let me address some items.

Yes, I like Vic in CF too. But the problem with upgrading the offense at 3B and RF is the Phillies have sat aroud and fiddled while their options have dwindled.

You're right - they'll do SOMETHING, but what is available to "upgrade" offensively at 3B over a Helms/Dobbs platoon. It's been debated here a lot, with no consensus that any addition will actually be an upgrade.

RF? How are they going to upgrade what they got from Vic/Werth combined? In 2007 they got 20 HR and 95 RBIs from them.

Bullpen? Except for Lidge, missed opportunities so far.

Rotation? A disgruntled Myers is an upgrade, but there are still question marks and no depth. None of the FAs excite me, and they don't appear to have what other tems want in a trade.

They are going to have a hard time making any real improvement from this point.

OK, fine, the money is insane. Now who replaces him? It's all well and good to balk at the money, but you have to fill the hole. You're basically substituting Werth for Rowand. And as I wrote weeks ago, we're counting on a full season from a guy who hurt, actually rehurt, his wrist last season. When/if he goes down, he'll be replaced by a for-now-unknown scrubeenie. The money's not valuable unless it's spent on something else.

"And, as an added bonus, next year they'll have two holes in the outfield once Burrell leaves."

JR King, they're counting on Golson to fill the void. They won't say so, because they don't want to subject themselves to ridicule, but IMO, that's the plan, or prayer, whichever you prefer.

Might be absoluetly nothing to it (I hope not), but anybody think it might be more than a coincidence that Rowand finally signs the big contract, the day before the Mitchell Report comes out?

Not that something that may have happened years ago,will effect any of these clubs signing those players now. The clubs and most fans don't seem to care that much.

So Rowand gets on base less, and he takes fewer total bases, i.e., has a lower slugging percentage, and he hits fewer home runs, and he drives in fewer runs - but he gets more singles and doubles... so he's a better hitter. Or just as good as Burrell, you didn't specify. OPS is a good stat because it combines all these stats, meaningless on their own, like doubles and singles and home runs, into a meaningful number. Saying someone hits more doubles and singles and is therefore a better hitter even though they don't stack up as well in any meaningful statistical category is like saying, yes, it's true, Player X scores more points than Player Y at a more efficient rate, yes, he takes way more freethrows and makes more threes, but look, Player Y hits way more mid-range jumpers and more shots just inside the three-point line! That means he's a better all-around player! No... it just means they make more mid-range jumpers and shots just inside the three-point line.

ah, I don't buy the Golson theory. I'm under no illusions about the general incompetence of management and stinginess of ownership, but I don't think either party is so catastrophically stupid as to hand Golson a starting job in 2009.

Alby: I don't disagree with you. But you won't get me to fault the Phillies for not giving 5 years, $60M to Aaron Rowand. On the other hand, since they knew they were going to lose Rowand, we can certainly fault them for not having an alternative plan. Why they didn't aggressively go after Fukudome is beyond me. He was exactly what they needed. They should also be following the Padres' lead & trying to land Jason Bay, who would also fit the bill. And if they really insist on using a RF platoon, the least they could do is find a fairly dynamic platoon mate to go with Werth. Luis Gonzalez would be good. Shawn Green would be good. Geoff Jenkins would be better than nothing. Bobby Kielty would NOT be good.

Alby, you just made one of the best comments I've ever read on this blog:

"The money's not valuable unless it's spent on something [or someone] else."

Of course "them" probably see it as more valuable in their own pockets.

Rowand got more pitches to hit in our lineup than he's bound to get for the Giants, given the fact that their lineup is atrocious. Amazingly enough, he may be the best hitter on that team. Methinks he'll be lucky to bat .255.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG