Rumor: Closer Kobayashi may elect to stay in Japan

Several reports have surfaced regarding the availability of Japanese free agents. I asked Wayne Graczyk, baseball columnist for The Japan Times, for a report on the two most likely arms heading to the States.

I had the privilege of meeting and attending a few games with Graczyk during my trip to Japan this summer. Something of an institution in the Japanese baseball scene, and regarded as the English-speaking world’s media gateway to Japanese baseball, Wayne served as sports editor of the Tokyo Weekender from 1977 to 2004, covers the Yomiuri Giants for Nippon TV and, since 1976, has compiled the Japan Pro Baseball Media Guide. One of his other responsibilities involves translating quotes from the North American players to the Japanese press. He’s done this for a number of years.

Hiroshima Carp starter Hiroki Kuroda and Chiba Lotte Marines closer Masahide Kobayashi are mentioned most as two pitchers who could be pitching in the Majors next season. According to Graczyk, they’ve lost a little luster.

“Kuroda has lost something and is not as sharp as last year,” he said. “Lost some velocity for sure.” As for Kobayashi, “Not certain if Kobayashi wants to go to the majors,” he added. “He is a good closer and word is he wants to file for free agency, but stay in Japan with one of the three Central League teams in the Kanto area -- the Giants, Swallows or Yokohama BayStars.”

Besides Kuroda and Kobayashi, a number of others may be prepared to make the jump. MLB Trade Rumors enlisted the help of a couple of writers to outline three others, including SoftBank Hawks forkballer Kazumi Saito, Chunichi Dragons ace Kenshin Kawakami and lefty closer Hitoke Iwase, also of the champion Dragons. Graczyk reminds us that some of the best talent to emerge from the Far East weren’t well known stars before leaving Japan.

“Okajima was a situational lefty with the Giants and Fighters, and the Red Sox scouts apparently saw something that convinced them he would be a good middle reliever or set-up man in the majors,” Graczyk said. “How right they were.”

Links: Graczyk's archived columns; MLB Trade Rumors Japanese scouting report

Comments

[Willard Preacher]

If he can pitch like he can eat hot dogs, we need to land this Kobayashi guy.

[AWH]

Well, the Yankees just decided that someone with Abreu's production level is worth $16MM/yr.

That should help to set prices in the free agent market, as players (esp. OF) will be compared either favorably or unfavorably with him.

[ae]

AWH, I'm sure you will perceive this as me getting on some kind of elevated horse, but:

the Yankees picking up Abreu's contract will have virtually no impact on the free agent market. A) it's $16M for one year, not multiple years. B) it's actually $14M if you subtract the $2M buyout they would have to pay. C) Abreu is not a free agent - there's no negotiating an option. D) the Yankees have essentially an unlimited payroll, so picking up any player's option is pretty much a no-brainer for them. E) I'm pretty sure that if the Yankees had declined his option, they would have also forfeited any compensation picks (Abreu is Type A).

[ae]

not to put down Jason's sources, but if MLBTR's translation can be believed, Kobayashi did indeed file for free agency today.

[CJ]

ae: All your points are valid, but that won't stop an agent from saying, "My player is as good as Bobby Abreu, and he's making $16M."

For instance, OPS+ comparisons last three seasons:
Abreu: 114, 126, 126
Burrell: 127, 122, 128

If Burrell were a free agent this year, I think there's a good chance his agent would be looking at what comparable players are making.

(Disclaimer: I'm not saying Burrell and Abreu are equal players. I'll let you decide who's better. I'm just using it as an example.)

[CJ]

ae: Jason's source said Kobayahsi WOULD file for free agency, but likely stay in Japan and play with a different team.

[ae]

CJ, only if the player's looking for a one-year deal. and MLBTR's post specifically says Kobayashi is interested in the MLB (although as I can't read Japanese I can't interpret exactly what that means).

[CJ]

I translated the page using babelfish and got this:
"The Lotte Co., Ltd. Kobayashi elegance English pitcher (33) on the 2nd, the reporter you interviewed at the Chiba marine stadium, "the free agent (FA) submitted the application to club. As for domestic all club of course, including also American measure, we would like to try hearing the story of the place where it shows interest ", that you expressed, you stated that the FA right which this season is acquired is used formally. Club side "we would like to have remaining behind. Until you decide, exhausting sincerity, we would like to discuss ", (club section Department Manager Honda) with you endeavor to dissuasion. "Thinking of the age aspect, it decided Kobayashi elegance. Reserving (declaration) when it is next year, growing older, also performance falls. You thought "that we would like to declare quickly even in order to raise feeling that you explain. After 23 "at the time of use it tried not to think in total 250 saving which is approached. It is there is prejudice in stopper, but there is no thought "of being only that, that and so on you spoke. Kobayashi elegance listed this season 27 saving, the season when the self has extended professional baseball longest record of 20 saving to 7 consecutively. As for total record in 9 years 36 victory 34 defeat/miss 227 saving and earned-run averages 2. 79."

That should clear it up.

[clout]

I'd like to see them roll the dice on Saito myself.

[CJ]

At least one Yankees fan thinks Mike Lowell is a bad option...

This is a fascinating blog post that makes some really compelling points.

Excerpt: "How did he manage to hit a whopping .373/.418/.575 with 73 RBIs at home? By spraying the crap out of the Green Monster. Nearly all of his Fenway Park extra-base hits seemed to be a product of that wall. Meanwhile, on the road, Lowell hit just .276/.339/.428, numbers much more in line with his career stats and 2006 numbers."

The post includes a great hit chart. Would some of those hits off the green monster also reach our left field seats?

[Ben Keeler]

I also dont think the Yankees picking up Abreus option will effect the FA market any

[Andy]

clout - you've mentioned Saito before and he is interesting. But he's truly rolling the dice. His pitching is the stuff of legends, unbelievable off-speed and breaking pitchesd by all accounts, with pop on his fastball and (unheard of for most Phils) great command. But he also has been seriously injured and may still be. Count in the $30 MM posting fee and whatever he'd want as a salary and it gets dicey (as in rolling the...).

If we were the GMs or owners it might happen. I'm not sure our bunch will take that kind of risk. They are risk averse, to a large degree (which doesn't stop them from getting burned by the occasional Freddy Garcia).

[MG]

Great post JW. Much more interesting than anything covered by the Philly sports media in regards to the offseason in the past week or so.

[MG]

Latest news on ARod from ESPN:

"But team executives were told, sources say, that in order to arrange a meeting with Rodriguez, they would have to be prepared to make an extension offer that would take the third baseman's deal up to a total value of $350 million. That means that the offer the Yankees intended to propose would have been more than $100 million short."

Pardon me for my following social rant but this story just disgusted my father and I so much I had to comment.

This level of unwarranted greed disgusts me and it is not because I am one of the proletariat hordes who wants to overcome the ruling bourgeois.

Where are the national media guys bashing ARod and Baras? You hear it a little here and there but not really. Have we become so jaded and insular as a culture that this kind of greed no longer demands a social response or at least an inquiry into what kind of society we are becoming?

The most ironic part is that many baseball fans decry the "lack of competitiveness" and the "inequity of resources" between teams like the Yanks/Red Sox and the Royals. If anything, baseball has become much more socialist in nature over time and the luxury tax has been a significant hindrance on large-revenue generating teams. I find it oddly and sadly amusing that fans in most American sports clamor for equality yet espouse a completely different message outside of the sports medium. Ironic indeed.

[AWH]

MG, and I was accused by 'from the district' of registering too much "righteous indignation".

I'll provide some help for you:

ARod and Boras are greedy.

Other players are greedy, too.

Owners are greedy.

The media understand that.

Billionaires are negotiating with millionaires to divide up the $6+ billion(and growing) in spoils of MLB revenue.

Why do you care who gets to keep it?

Lastly, there are many fans of American sports who clamor for equality and decry the greed, and do the same outside the sports medium. They call themselves socialists.

[MG]

AWH - This has nothing to do with being a "socialist." That is a term that is thrown away way too often and in situations where it doesn't apply.

I care because this effects something that I derive an interest in and I guess it just offends me on some basic level. Plus, I am willing to bet that even people in the baseball world are pretty shocked by ARod's wanton greed.

I also care about the ARod story so much because I get sick and tired of hearing about how ARod cares about anything but money (which is 100% bullshit) and criticizes the fans/media get on him for his lack of performance/things in his personal life that may effect his baseball performance.

If he expects such a high salary, then he should be expect that he will be a lightning rod for controversy/criticism when he is performing.

[Parker]

Seattle did not pick up the option of Jose Guillen. He seems like an interesting option to play RF (assuming he is even somewhat affordable while addressing pitching and 3B). He has been a headcase in the past, but I don't think he is even in the same universe as Milton Bradley. Whatever problems he used to have seem to have been put behind him in recent years. I think he might be worth a look, and considering where he is coming from, I think Gillick probably will.

I also think that the speculated potential sale of the Phillies was actually the Phillies talking to Scott Boras about signing A-Rod.

[Parker]

Wow AWH throwing around the "Socialist" tag, I think that is taking over the line. In the words of Seinfeld: "Not that there is anything wrong with that", but I wonder if "socialist" was the appropriate term.

[AWH]

Parker, I didn't say ALL fans, I said "many".

Fact: There are socialists in the USA (and elsewhere).

Fact: Some of them are baseball fams.

I was referring to them. Please explain why that is "over the line".

[AWH]

P.S. I merely pointed this out in response to MG. I did not editorialize.

[Parker]

AWH, I was mostly just kidding, although I must admit, I kind off thought it interesting to see "socialist" posted this morning. Canada is a nation of social healthcare, which is obvously an idea founded in socialism. Its not like it is a naughty word, but I think that the term carries a lot of baggage, possibly from misunderstanding of its true meanings, and association with various dictataorial regimes.

[s97]

Why do we care who keeps the money? Because both sides expect us to keep filling the trough, and to provide bigger troughs. There's no perceptible concern about the long-term issue of what it's doing to the fan base and the future of the sport.

How much do we pay for the privilege of parking at the ballgame? How much does it cost to sit 500 feet away from the diamond? How easy is it to watch CSN on something other than Comcast? How much is a beer and a hotdog at the park? Why are we (or the visitors we advertise for) expected to fund stadiums? How much does a 'replica' jersey cost? How much does it cost for the ability to watch an Astros-Pirates game online or on cable?

More importantly, which has been higher - the general rate of inflation or the baseball rate of inflation?

Do you want a sport where the in-studio audience is corporate partiers who pick up tickets as a handout for doing business, or people who bleed pinstripes day-in day-out? Do you think that the school kids of today will find the same loyalty to the sport that their parents did, or will fractionalized interest apply to pro team sports as well?

You're a family with 3 kids. Gas prices are eating a chunk out of your budget. How many times a year will you continue to drop $180 bucks for an evening at the ballpark? If you live in Plymouth Meeting, do you decide to drop that on the Phils-Brewers, or less than half of that on the Iron Pigs? Which will make your family happy?

Why have the minor leagues boomed? Because people found they got the basic ballpark experience they wanted without getting hung up on the travel time and price-gouging. For the casual fans, which outnumber the loyalists, the product on the field doesn't matter that much. MLB differentiates in just two areas to them: the bandwagon when a big-city team is a winner, and star name recognition at the game (not the performance, just the 'I saw' part).

Otherwise, it's heading for the same fate as hockey where there's a small core of loyalists who can't recognize that the enthusiasm in the building is apathy when you get to the street.

That's why we should care about the money.

Rant off, flame on.

[Reed]

Our starting catcher in 1986 and current AAA manager finally gets his shot:

According to the Beaver County Times, the Pirates could name Triple-A Ottawa manager John Russell their replacement for Jim Tracy as soon as Monday.

Russell, 46, was on the Pirates staff in 2003-05. He's reportedly being picked over White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, Dodgers bench coach Dave Jauss, Triple-A Indianapolis manager Trent Jewitt and Cleveland third0base coach Joel Skinner.

[Andy]

We've talked about A-Rod possibilities and how it might shape the market. Here's a new scenario, given Bora$$'$ overwhelming greed - what if no one springs for $35 per year for a player who will never agian have the year he had this year, which was better but, incidently, not THAT MUCH better than anybody else. What if no one pays him 35 for 10? Will he sit out? Will he come down in his price?

Gosh, Bora$$ listed the $350MM as his floor price. He wants even more than that.

I uderstand prices are going up. But really, whoever puts that kind of money into one player is dooming their team to years of mediocrity.

[clout]

Jim Tracy and Grady Little are two of the worst managers in history so it's nice to see them gone and at least one new guy get a shot instead of the same old recycled garbage.

[AWH]

s97. it's about choices, isn't it? Before TV, at one time, minor league baseball was bigger in this country than it is today.

If it's coming back because MLB is pricing itself out of some households, then that's a good thing. Kids can get the experience anywhere.

My point is that MLB prices are going to go up anyway, regardless of whether players make more money or not. You're arguing over the split.

Owners aren't financially stupid. They make money, regardless of what they tell you, and THEY'RE GOING TO KEEP RAISING PRICES WHETHER OR NOT THEY HAVE TO PAY THE PLAYERS MORE.

If players damage their collective image through their greed and the fan base erodes because of it (remember the strike), then it will eventually cost them money.

Let them split the money any way they want to.

All I care about is that the team I follow and watch tries as best they can to win.

Lastly, everyone (all the writers and pundits) have assumed that Boras "knew" he had a deal at $300 - 350 million before Rodriguez opted out. I'm starting to wonder. His image was hurt by the timing of the announcement, and the Yankees (who usually set the market) seem to be sticking to their guns and telling Boras to "stick it". And it's coming from Steinbrenner - not Cashman. They won't be used to drive the price up. The Red Sox probably aren't going to participate - their fans would go nuts. Simply, a team has to look at whether they can duplicate that production for $30-35 million/yr, and spread the injury risk over several players.

At first I thought he could do that kind of deal, but now...I'll lay even money it doesn't happen.

[clout]

Parker: Jose Guillen lifetime OPS: .772, lifetime OB .325. Lifetime K/BB ratio: 4/1.
Is that better than a Werth/Bourn platoon? I say no. Werth/Bourn are also better defensively. I think we can upgrade, but a high strikeout, low OB corner outfielder who's had attitude problems is not the way to go.

[AWH]

"whoever puts that kind of money into one player is dooming their team to years of mediocrity."

Andy, I agree. As I posted before, since free agency began, only once has a team with the highest paid player ever won the WS. It just seems to suck up too much of a team's resources.

[Andy]

Let me try to be calmer in how I say this:
Is Alex Rodriguez 75% better than anybody else playing? 'Cause that's what Bora$$ is asking.

If I were anyobody's GM I would, without collusion, just say no. If everybody is wise and sensible will: 1) Bora$$ come down in his price? or 2) Bora$$ claim there's collusion? or 3) Alex sits for a whole year like J.D. Drew?

A useless "if" I know, because there is bound to be one knucklehead GM who is okay with ruining his team for years to come for the sake of a one-time "coups."

On Guillen: (yikes) here is the argument about team morale again. It might be okay with saying he's over his problems, but he's had a lot of problems.

He has nailed the ball at CBP though.

[Andy]

yikes I thought I closed that tag.

[TBex]

Just one quick comment about the whole Arod thing. "Greed is good...Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit"

haha yeah so Arod's asking price is indeed disgusting but I'm more inclined to agree that its just billionaires and millionaires splitting up the pie. The kind of thing that turned many fans off in the 1994 strike.

[Andy]

TBex - Gordon Gecko is not a good role model. In fact he goes to jail in that movie.

My main point is that $35MM per year denigrates and insults everybody else. Manny Ramirez, who has been a key contributor on two WS winning teams (whom I would not really want in my OF, by the way) will get a league premium $20MM next year. I need someone to tell me how A-Rod's contributions to his team/the game are worth 75% more than Manny's.

(That's actually rhetorical, howqever, since we know that no one player is worth 75% more than every other player.)

I want the Mets to sign A-Rod. They might bash the heck out of us next year; but over the next 10 years, we will begin to whoop them pretty consistently.

[RSB]

Jose Guillen is more trouble than he's worth. Character is important to the make-up of a team; bring in one bad apple and he can offset the whole cart. At least the Phillies seem to have had enough sense to realize this. Besides, a lefty-hitting outfielder would make much more sense considering the presence of Jayson Werth.

There will be one or two teams stupid enough to go after Rodriguez, but most will note that he's been as far as the ALCS just once in his career and wisely back away. I would not say that Rodriguez is over-rated, but the importance of a guy like him to a *team* is over-stated. Did the Rangers get an ounce better for having imported him? Did the Yankees? Did the Mariners not go out and win 116 games the year after he left? He's a homerun hitter. When homerun hitters aren't hitting homeruns, they usually don't do much to help you win games. Rodriguez's defense and baserunning skills are decent, but nothing a litany of others don't do just as well or better. Great hitter, but that's it. No leadership qualities whatsoever. And as a person...well, is he a person? He strikes me as the archetypical 21st century android-athlete - I don't know if I've ever seen a player who was more blatantly money-motivated than Rodriguez. And he isn't worth half of what Boras is asking.

[ae]

I think you guys may be reading too much into this $350M story. in the first place, it was leaked by Yankees sources, who don't want to look bad in the press and may have overstated the situation. and in the second place, if Rodriguez just doesn't want to play in NY (because of the pressure, or because he doesn't like his teammates, or whatever), he and Boras could have just made an absurd demand, just to see if they'd match it.

if anything is an affront to baseball, it's Sammy Sosa reportedly asking for $7M a year. now that's just crazy.

on Guillen, I think he's going to pull down a much bigger contract than what we should be looking to pay. he's only 31, and he's been very productive in 4 of the last 5 years. he's going to be looking for a multi-year deal as a starter, not a cheap contract to platoon with someone.

[fljerry]

Why is everyone stating that the Mets may get ARod. They are set at third short and have a good second baseman in Castillo. Where will Arod play or who on the team now will be moved?

[malcolm]

ae: Think you hit it on the head with the story leak. AROD and Boras are taking a beating for how they put this out during the series and the Yanks are trying to pile on. My question is the contract that Alex got last time was because of Boras saying he had a phantom offer. That caused the Rangers to overbid by $100 million? What I wonder is if he will be able to pull that trick on anyone again. Someone will pay for him but i'm thinking AROD gets less then $30 mill/season.

[ae]

fljerry, Castillo is a free agent, and he's also not actually that good. (i.e. Wright + Reyes + Rodriguez >>> Wright + Reyes + Castillo.)

[ae]

I agree, malcolm...I think there's just not going to be that many teams that can bid on Rodriguez. but I would bet that somebody (Anaheim) will find a way to pay him 10/$300.

[Andy]

fljerry, ae - I'm still guessing that he'd play 1B and they'd find someone to take Delgado. But frankly, I only said that cause he'll ruin whomever takes him and it might as well be someone to our benefit.

[fljerry]

I didn't realize Castillo was free agent but I've seen him down here in florida and thought he was a decent second baseman. He's a definite 300 hitter and lots of speed. To me he would be a perfect 2 hitter on that team. Hes a great bunter and beats out lots of infield hits. Can't believe they will not try to resign him.

[AWH]

As far as the Mets signing ARod is concerned, let me ask:

How much of an upgrade is he over David Wright? I'm not asking whether he's better (of course he is), but HOW MUCH of an upgrade is he?

He wants $30MM/yr or more. Is he really worth $25+MM more than David Wright?(DR, BTW, made $1.25MM in 2007). Is he that much better a player? Is he going to give his team that much better a chance to win?

The more I think about it, I think Boras is engaging in wishful thinking. The contract he negotiated before was way over what the market was (dumb Hicks), and I think malcolm's question is rhetorical, in that I don't think any owner or GM is going to let Boras "pull that trick" again.

It's not going to take collusion for ARod to get less than $30mm. It's just going to take understanding GMs saying: "Scott, the last contract isn't relevant - your boy was way overpaid then, and I'm not going to look like a fool by overpaying now. BTW, Scott, how many WS winners has he played for?"

It will be interesting to see where he winds up, and how much he gets.

[Andy]

Y'know, getting back to the top of the thread; what chance do we have at Fukudome? He might be an interesting replacement for Rowand (with Vic moving to center).

[Andy]

'course he is a lefty.
And west coast teams (usually) go buggy over Japanese ball players.

[Malcolm]

The Malcolm with a capital "M" checking in:

It would be an intriguing show of protest toward the system and the agent/player-led rules of the offseason if every team ignored A-Rod and denied him anything. Imagine what could happen from such a demonstration.

Of course, someone will pay what A-Rod is looking for, or at least close to it, and the system will continue to get worse.

[AWH]

Going back to the previous Vic/Bourn thread, the Astros are reportedly interested in acquiring a CF, but Rowand, Hunter and AJones may be out of their price range.

Not being a minor league guru, do the Astros have anyone in the high minors the Phillies would want in a trade - players for whom the Phils would/should be willing to give up Vic or Bourn?

[Sixto Lescano]

It will be interesting to see how Boras plays this. The one thing he has on his side is the battle for LA going on between the Dodgers and Angels. Both teams could afford to pay AROD and the winner would own the town and headlines. LA seems like a perfect fit for him considering the easy going attittude.

[elliott]

andy, your right. a-rod is not 75% better than anyone else...not even close. the market for him is utterly ridiculous.

he sucks in the postseason. also, and no one is talking about this, he's 32! how can anyone be comfortable signing him to a contract whereby he could be 40 and making $35 mil. a year. unless he's jacked up, history tells us his performance will certainly decline by then.

[Parker]

Yeah, maybe Guillen is not the answer, then again I was not suggesting that RF was a huge need. he did his .362 against LH pitching last year with a 1.049 OPS clip. That will earn him some money, headcase or not.

[Andy]

AWH - I looked a while back and only saw Troy Patton, who's not even worth the loss of Bourn. (Their system looks worse than ours.)

We might, however, swing about 4 or 5 early draft picks, since Wade is the Houston GM.

[Andy]

AWH - I looked again. Don't they have Hunter Pence in Center? He had a pretty good year.