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Friday, November 30, 2007

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Wow, Milledges star must have really fallen in the Mets mind. More like a supernova.

That card pircture is not the most flattering angle of Carlos Ruiz. He kind of looks like Curly from the Three Stooges. I keep waiting for a comment box with "Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk" to come out of his mouth.

It's a tribute to the Topps Pete Rose rookie card, during that era when Topps was all about heads inside of circles.

I think Minaya's next move should be to put up a "FUN TIMES ACCOMPLISHED" banner over Shea.

Jason, I'm confused. Why is Estrada not going to play for the Mets?

Parker: Maybe he will, but the report is they will non-tender or trade him because they acquired Schneider.

Does Church get flipped somewhere else by the Mets now--like Oakland or Minnesota?

I can see how both sides win in this Mets/Nats deal. Milledge is a guy who may need a change of scenery (which is a little absurd because he's still so young). He's 22, and Acta and company have plenty of time to build him up (or perhaps chop him down a little...) On the other hand, I feel like Schneider is an upgrade, especially from Estrada. Church is a guy who is going to give you decent effort, and can provide some nice ABs off the bench or in a fill-in role. Considering that's all they would have been looking for from Millege in 2008, it seems like a can't miss.

From the Phils perspective it's really 6 of one, half dozen for the other. We're going to face these same hitters either way, and I don't feel like this trade makes either lineup that much more dangerous.

Also, Chooch is pretty cool. Good for him. I forget sometimes that he was a rookie.

From end of last thread:
from the district: I'm with you!

Schneider's offense is way worse than LoDuca's. In fact, even though LoDuca had a career bad year on offense last season (.689 OPS), Schneider's was even worse (.661). Schneider is a top glove man, of course, but Church is basically a 'tweener: Not enough power to play the corners, not enough glove to play CF. He's a 4th outfielder on a contending team, a starter on a bad team. And, at age 29, Church is what you see, what you get. He won't be blossoming into a power hitter.

So you're dealing a topnotch prospect at age 22 for a good-field, no-hit catcher and a 4th outfielder, aged 31 and 29. Only way this works out for Minaya is if Milledge flops.

I don't buy the NY hype about Milledge. (Rule of thumb: Reduce every projection you ever read about a Yankee or Met prospect by 20%). I don't think he'll ever hit 30 HRs or steal 30 bases and his OB will never be anything special. But I DO think he can be one of those 20-25 HR, 85 RBI, .280 guys who is an everyday player for the next 10 years. The Mets clearly did not get equal value.

my favorite part of the story is this: "The Mets proposed sending Estrada along with Milledge to the Nationals, one source says, but the Nats apparently balked at the idea."

so Estrada--who can be nontendered with no monetary expense--actually has negative value. priceless.

The Estrada trade turned out to save the Mets $2.5 million by getting some sucker team to take Mota. By the way, the Brewers are arguably having the worst offseason of any team in baseball so far.

Flores will have better numbers than Schneider ,if not this yr, certainly by 2009. He is also a league average catcher defensively. I think the Nats got the better of this deal because Schneider is on the downside and much more expensive than Flores at 4.5 Mill. Church is a nice player with no upside . what you see is wat you get . a 275 platoon OF. Milledge has all the tools and may play in Wash for the next 10 yrs with 20 HR 85 RBI and 30 steals a yr.

MG, I know that's the explanation now. but even if I buy it (and I don't) this is the Mets we're talking about. like $2.5M is going to prevent them from doing anything.

well, I mean I do buy that dumping Mota was a pretty big factor. but I don't buy that Estrada was never even thought of as their 2008 catcher.

All this nonsense makes me thankful to have Chooch.

I would bet you see a big jump in Nats' offense next year between the improvements they've made and the new ballpark, which I understand is going to be much less Grand Canyon-esque than RFK. C Flores / 1B Young / 2B Belliard / 3B Zimmerman / SS Lopez / LF Pena / CF Milledge / RF Kearns...that's an intriguing lineup.

I think the thing that makes this trade so dumbfounding is the bounty that Milledge was supposedly capable of producing via trade even at the midway point of last season. I mean the reports included some of the A's starting pitchers. Either some people were overstating Milledge's true value or there was some shoddy reporting regarding the acutal offers for Milledge. I just don't get it. If Milledge was worth that much mid-season last year, what has he done at age 22 (and only 150 AB), that suggests that he is not going to be better than Church and Schneider. Don't get me wrong, I hope this bites the Muts in the ass, but it just seems a monumental error in judgment.

Eh, doesn't exactly look that fearsome, but should have a little jump from the ballpark change.

Maybe the Mets will give us Phillip Humber for Danny Sandoval and Boxcar Joe.

"I'm a victim of soycomstance!"

ae: If that's their starting lineup, it will finish dead last in the NL in OB %. Actually, I think Nick Johnson might return at some point next year, which would help considerably since Wily Mo is incapable of hitting RHP. Dmitri would move to LF vs. RHP and Johnson's bat is a huge upgrade over WMP. A 3-4-5 of Zimmerman-Johnson-Young isn't too shabby.

Parker: Your error is in assuming that the A's actually seriously considered dealing Haren for Milledge. That was a Mets and NY writers wish. The A's might've been tempted if Milledge was part of a package but they never considered that deal straight up.

Clout - I agree with you about Milledge ceiling. Nice player who might hit .270-.280 with moderate power and some speed. Defensively nothing special either but not a Pat Burrell out there either. Basically, an above average RF who probably won't be an All-Star.

That is of course given that Milledge matures which is a huge question mark. Lets recap:

1. Had numerous issues his rookie season of immaturity including not running out plays, showing up only a hour before games, and displaying immature reactions on the feed.

2. Mets asked Milledge to play winter ball last offseason and he refused. Instead he stayed in Florida to train and the Minaya personally checked in on him twice a month.

3. Milledge once again had issues again last season with immaturity. A big deal was made about the rapping controversay but I bet the Mets were more concerned about his immaturity on the field including showboating and not running hard at times again.

More importantly, does everyone forget that Milledge was the likely the guy who triggered the skirmish with the Marlins on Sept. 29th by acting like a total jackass and standing at the plate for a good few second when he hit his second HR of the game? That skirmish arguably fired up the Marlins (who were in the process of losing a 13-0) and helped them to kick the Mets' ass on the final day of ths season.

Milledge obviously has talent but any time has a player continually has on-field issues with immaturity that should be a big warning sign. Maybe Milledge changes but you never know. I think Minaya remembered the BS that Reyes and Milledge pulled and decided that one of them had to go (obviously wasn't going to be Reyes who is more talented and at a more difficult position to replace).

Milledge is the perfect risk though for the Nats who desperately need offesnive talent that will be cheap for a number of years.

2.

I'd rather face Church than Milledge. Not one of Minaya's finer moments.

The addition of Church to the Mets reinforces my belief that the Phils need to add another LOOGY to the pen.

BB, clout - well, I didn't say good, I said intriguing. I think they're certainly going to be better than dead last in the league next year.

I think Milledge's maturity "problems" are exactly the same as Bobby Abreu's laziness "problems." in that they're largely nonexistent, endlessly harped upon by fans who instinctively dislike the players for no tangible reason, and could be easily neutralized by a remotely competent manager. not to say that I'm a big fan of Milledge, but you don't trade young cheap talent like that because you think he's not a terribly nice young man. that's dumb.

ae: I agree.

What's striking to me about this trade is the realization that it apparently only takes 350 big league ABs for a "blue chip" prospect to lose his blue chip status. If Milledge were as highly regarded today as he was a year ago, it wouldn't at all be out of the question to see him as the centerpiece in a Johann Santana or Eric Bedard trade.

There's a lesson here & the lesson is that some prospects are for keeping & some are for trading. It was evident from Milledge's minor league numbers that he was not going to be an instant hit at the major league level. The Mets should have traded him before the other 29 GMs had a chance to see that, despite his physical tools, he was a long-term project. The Phillies have a few highly regarded guys in their minor league system who probably fall into this same category.

ae-I agree, as well. Milledge isn't as much as a "problem child" as some make out. Yes, there was an "incident" or 2, but I don't think he's really a Dmitri Young jr. or something. Not the worst move for the Mets, but a good move for the Nats, I think.

I just read the Phils plan to tender both Snelling and Julio Mateo, leading me to believe Gillick thinks they'll be on the 25-man roster. Mateo has pending legal matters, but depending on the outcome he could end up being a good relief pitcher for us.

Phils won't be offering Freddy Garcia arbitration at the risk of him accepting, which he probably would considering his banged up state. That means no draft pick compensation for him. However, the Phils will get some comp for Fence-Face.

By the way, I've been a fan of Chooch for quite some time now, and I'm gald he's getting the recognition he deserves. He's very solid defensively, will continue to improve in calling games and handling a staff, and I still think he has more potential offensively. I know he's not young, but he still has room to grow and that great news for the Phils.

I don't really care as much about off-the-field incidents unless they are really serious. Another thing when a player has repeatedly shown that his attitude/preparation effects his performance on the field as in Milledge's case.

I love this trade for the Nats... Milledge has been holding his own as a 21 and 22 year old in the majors. We've been hearing about him forever, but he's still very young. His minor league OPS was around .850 despite being much younger than his peer group at every stop... Carlos Gomez is only one year younger, but has been putting up worse stats and is apparently a blue-chipper

Willie Mays went o for 24 when he first came up. Look how he ended up. Can't give up on Milledge

Clout: actually I didn't make any mistake, someone else might have, but I never made any comment as to what Milledge's true value was. I merely relayed what I heard on TV/Read. Not a big deal, I just find it interesting to see that you stated that it was my error. If I make an error, I'll be the first to admit it. I won't have to wait for you to tell me.

AWH, how bout Ray King? He's a Nat again. Nats had a big & fat day.

The fat guy seems to get our lefties out. Unless I am completely wrong because I didn't look up stats.

Reed I love the double disclaimer. Not only did you state that you could be wrong because you didn't look at the stats, but you also said that "the fat guy seems," leaving open the possibility that he does not actually get them out.

Parker: You're right. The error was by the reporters who said that the A's were willing to deal Haren straight up for Milledge. Your conclusion, in light of that, the Nats deal is "dumbfounding" would be correct if those reports were true. But they weren't. Milledge's value, in my opinion, didn't go down much at all since last season. He more than held his own this year. The character stuff is immaturity and only gets mentioned because he's black. About the only negative thing from a baseball standpoint that emerged this year is that CF is not his long-term position, although a lot of people already knew that.

Imagine being a Mets fan and hearing one day that Lastings Milledge is worth Dan Haren or Johan Santana... and the next minute he's dealt for a no-hit catcher and a 29-year old 4th outfielder.

Ouch.

Ouch is right. The more I consider this trade, the less it makes sense. The Mets just traded a 22 year-old player with considerable potential for two much older, nothing players. They could have at least gotten some good prospects in return, to shore up their farm system a little. Even if they had definitely given up on Milledge, there's no way to justify not getting a lot more back than they did.

What you have to really love about some of the moves they've made thus far in the off-season is that they're fallout from what happened in September. The satisfaction extends all through the winter...

The Braves have said they will non-tender Andruw. How the mighty have fallen.

Reed, despite his shortcomings, I would have liked to see Ray King in a Phils uniform. He's gotten LH out pretty consistently his entire career, and has proven durable despite the growth of the tumor around his waist.

I promise you Utley and Howard are not happy about having to face him. King was lights out against those two.

AWH: But think of the money being saved in uniform fabric.

Can we Sign Rowand/Jones, Flip Vic, Eaton, and Prospects(I dunno who, whomever we throw together) for Tejada, Guthrie, and Tike Redman.

Redman seems to hit well solely against righties and his defense is fine(or so his FPCT seems to indicate), Tejada obviously fills our needs as far as 3B and Guthrie seems to have promise as a decent groundball pitcher.

Vic allows them to save money, and get rid of the crap they have out in CF.

I am I out of my mind? I dunno, its late.


MM- although I like your creativity, I don't like the deal you propose.

Rowand and Andruw have priced themselves out of the Phils budget. I know Gillick said there wasn't any salary constraints, rather lack of talent, but he's talking out of his ass because Rowand and Andruw are talent. Fence-Face has a slight possibility of returning, but his salary and year demands is crazy and unwise to sign in my opinion.

Gutherie was good last season, but let's not forget the was released by the Indians to start the year and hasn't had success prior to '07. Tike Redman blows donkey dong! Also Tejada would solve our 3rd base problem offensively, but he is unproven there defensively.

clout -
Nice evaluation of Milledge (especially "immaturity;" I wonder if a player like, say, Jason Donald was jawing at umpires, watching a homer and starting a fight if the press wouldn't call it "competitive fire.")

This is a genuine bad deal for Minaya unless he knows something we and the Nats don't.

mm
IMO, there are too many pieces that could blow up in that trade.

If we're gonna raid our farm system we need to get a young pitcher better than Guthrie.

Off topic - Jason did you notice that one of the old threads is getting spammed? Looks like they've found a way around the blocker.

I'm kind of wondering what this deal (Milledge for Schneider/Church) says about the value of quality defensive catching availability right now? I like Carlos Ruiz as much as the next guy, but I was by no means overwhelemed by his overall game last year. I will say, his defense is stellar, and is improving (not easy to do, b/c it was already good). The fact that Ruiz was voted as the best rookie catcher last year is significant. The day of the slugging catcher seems to be on the wane. The only guy that I think even comes close in the NL is Russell Martin. Two guys in the AL come to mind: Martinez and Mauer. Other than that, it seems that the catcher position is becoming a battle of superb defense. If this is indeed the future of the catcher position for most teams, I like the Phillies situation with Ruiz.

I mean I'm wavering on who was the centerpeice for the Mets, Schneider or Church. Superficially, Church is a name, but I'm not sure that Schneider with no bat, is not more valuable.

Parker: I have two words for you: Brian McCann.

Here's a name I haven't seen mentioned in our bullpen speculation: Shawn Chacon. Live arm, good stuff, bad as a SP, but good in the 'pen.

Parker: Church is not a quality everyday starting outfielder. He doesn't have enough power for the corners and his glove isn't good enough for CF. Schneider clearly was the key man for the Mets.

Clout, yeah that is the only thing that makes any sense. Its still baffling to me that Milledge was not worth more than that. He may not have been worth Haren or any of the other A's starters, but Brian Schneider.

Mccann: Ok I'll say McCann is on the fringe there, but most of his power numbers came against the Phillies in the fist week (Slight exaggeration. Slight.) His power (At least HR totals) dipped at the end of the season. I realize he was hurt some of that time, but I just wonder if he can be considered a slugging catcher?

clout - It may be that the scouting indicates Chacon has potential as a reliever, but his career numbers as a reliever are considerably worse than those as a starter.

I should note, I'm not questioning McCann as a good hitter, but I don't put him on the same hemishpere as Piazza/Mauer/Martinez/Pudge (young version).

By the way, they are replaying the final game of the four game series sweep between the Mets and Phils on Comcast Sportsnet.

On McCann: He's easily in the "same hemisphere" as Russell Martin -- who you cited.

I actually think Chacon would be a nice fit. His numbers as a reliever are mostly attributable to one bad season, which was 4 years ago when he was pitching at pre-humidor Coors Field. He has been pretty solid out of the pen in recent years -- particularly last year. Plus, he would give the Phillies a guy who could make a spot start without totally embarrasing himself.

Gutrhrie also only like 23. And Redman, if you look at seasons, when managers were smart, and only batted him against Righties, he actually did pretty well. I think he pretty horrible too, but i think he's adequate as a LH Bat who can play LF, to go with werth.

And Yes...Gillick is an a-hole for not signing one of those guys and trading vic. I mean honestly, what do they expect to do at the winter meetings, with NO POSISTION PLAYERS to trade?

Its just doesn't make sense. At the end of the day VIC was a rule 5 guy we got lucky on. I'd trade him in a second for something of value(as he should be worth at least a 4 or 5 starter who doesn't stink and probably more)

That's the last i say of my proposed trade. I was just trying to maximize what we could do in a trade with Baltimore and thats about the best that we had. Their not going to trade Bedard to us, so i tried to think outside the box and see who else they have. I actually would trade for Guthrie, as he'd probably keeps his era around 3 and whip around 1.2 in the NL. If we can get him for pennies on the dollar, I'd say we win.


Ok, I lied Gutrhie is 27. But also he went to college so didn't hit minors until 22-23. Could be worse.

I'd say he's on par as far as Minors to Majors time table(looks like 3 seasons) with some struggles. But I like any pitcher who has a winning record on the Orioles.

On a team like the phillies, shouldn't some of these guys who are on the fence W-L wise improve, as long as the peripherals are there?

It doesn't have to be guthrie, but these are the type of pitchers we should be targeting in trades. Younger, has stuff even if record doesn't show it, been on horrible teams with no bullpen or run support.


Christ a 44 year old pitcher won over 10 games on our team last year! We don't need Johan, we just need guys who can get the job done.


We should have been targeting Guthrie when cleveland got rid of him and he was free....not now that he'd be quite expensive

mm- Sure, Guthrie is the type of pitcher that we should be targeting in trades; he is also exactly the type of pitcher that no team trades. Why would the Orioles get rid of a young starting pitcher under their control for probably the next 4-5 years? To trade for one of our young starting pitchers who isn't as good? Seriously, that trade last week with Garza for Young is the only trade you will see where a pitcher who is under team control for more than 2 years (which is what Bedard has) will be traded FROM a team trying to rebuild. The Yankees and Red Sox may trade their young prospect pitchers, but why the hell would the Orioles?

Per Peter Gammons on ESPN. He just said on Sports Center the Phillies are all but complete on a trade for pitcher Dan Haren. The package includes OF's Shane Victorino, Second year pitcher Kyle Kendrick and 2 other prospects that he was not sure of. He also said this means the Phillies will more then likely bring back Aaron Rowand.

If Gammons is correct, I would assume that Rowand would be coming back to the Phills without Victorino. Beane most likely asked for Cardenas & Carrasco.

Dan Haren? If that is true, that is awesome.

I wouldn't buy this quite yet...I haven't seen chatter about this anywhere else.

Probably a disgruntled Mets fan trying to stir things up.

Besides, since when is SportsCenter on at 2 in the afternoon?

Well I guess that's a good sell high move with Kendrick... he probably never was going to be worth more. Though I'm surprised that Billy Beane would trade for a guy with such a low strikeout rate, I thought he bought into the whole Voros McCracken theory of pitching. I'll miss Victorino but if our top three pitchers are Hamels, Haren and Myers, we're probably the NL favorite.

Well, the Phillies sight is saying that Rowand is likely to get arbitration. I don't know if that is correct or not.

OOps, should be related not "correct" there.

Is this true?

Truth:My buddy claims he saw it on the 12pm SportsCenter-he e-mailed me. Still nothing on ESPN NEWS.

Yeah, now that I think about it that trade has to be bogus. There is no way that the A's make that trade. If they did, all the Gillick bashers would have to rethink some things. Victorino and Kendrick/ unknown prospects for Haren? About like ESPN reporting that Les Miles was going to be announced as the coach at Michigan next week, and now their website says he is re-negotiating with LSU. Interesting how that works.

I'll believe it when it happens. Not on Espn.com or mlbtraderumors.com

If it isn't true, you've ruined my day. I hate the internet*!


*not really

Truth is out, it was a friend, who e-mailed my sister's ex-boyfirend's, cousin's, former college roomate about the Haren thing.

Parker:I loved how Les Miles didn't take any questions. These coaches are king of the BS. Miles only stated he would remain coach of the Tigers-he never said "I will be the coach next year" unreal.
If the Haren rumor is wrong I apologize-I should have waited to see the Gammons clip myself.

No I've not seen it either. I called my friend and am awaiting a return call. Per MLBtraderumors.com Rolen is going to the Brewers. I wonder if that makes Braun available.

Does not make Braun available at all...

They were going to move him to a different position because his defense at third is horrible.

That would make Braun and outfielder, not available.

Don't know if it was here where I read it, but apparently at the meetings Gillick did make a run at Haren and was shot down immediately

Dave X, is that like Bob Knight shot down, or Dick Cheney shot down? Or maybe AC/DC?

Not seeing anything about Haren on some A's blogs...though I'm not sure I have seen the best ones. Anyone have a source to check? How about B.A.P.?

If ESPN actually reported that and it doesn't happen, it is pretty pathetic. They would be batting .1000 on shoddy reporting today (See Les Miles).

But it would be consistent with their innacurate reporting regarding trades and Dan Haren (See Milledge for Haren rumors last year).

Ryan Braun is listed as an infielder on the Brewers roster. I believe he played 3B last season.

Dpatrone: But if they acquire Rolen (As you said), he will be moved to OF. That would make a lot of sense considering that they will be losing Geoff Jenkins to FA. Although I don't know where they would put Corey Hart.

The Brewers have been planning to move Braun because of hie cement glove at third. He made 24 errors last season.

The Padres, taking a chance on a pitcher coming off shoulder surgery, are close to signing free-agent left-hander Randy Wolf to a one-year contract, according to major-league sources.

From Rosenthal.

Well, if they are going to pull this Haren deal off they better do it soon before Rowand decides to sign elsewhere.

Maybe they know where Rowand is going to sign...with the Phils.

RoA: You're probably right, it has been made pretty clear this isn't an issue of money but years and from what has been reported, no one wants to give Rowand 5 years.

By the way, if the cards get back what has been rumored for rolen, i'd say its the deal of the off-season so far.

Its not as high profile as the garza for delmon young, but its so freaking lopsided its pathetic.

If the Haren rumor is true (doubtful) one would think the prospects involved are at least Carrasco and one of Savery, Drabek, or Cardenas.

Well if Wolf signs with SD that's the last time I listen to my source. Either Wolf wants to stay on the West Coast (makes sense) or Gillick just low-balls everybody (also makes sense). I've been saying that all along as all of you know. The Phils don't sign any FA unless they're willing to accept what the Phils want to pay.

R of A, you know my source also and it looks like he was wrong about Wolf. And of course you who I am. I believe the Haren deal is a hoax. I can't find anything on it anywhere.

I did not know the Brewers were planning to move Braun to the OF. I stand corrected on that one.

Who is this Kells who posted the planned trade for Hagen?

I don't think Peter Gammons ever reported this. If you go to espn's mlb page, the current headline is about all the teams who are interested in Rowand. The article goes on to say that we're not going to keep him or go after Jenkins. I think if this were true they would have (a) posted it by now and (b) removed an article that contained information diametrically opposed to what they're reporting on television.

Now is this Wolf signing with Padres a real thing?

fljerry: It's on foxsports.com, so it's legit.

Probably so, and though I would not have liked the signing for us at all, he's probably a decent investment for the Padres, so long as he doesn't get hurt a lot.

I actually want Wolf - theres not too much out there now except maybe Lieber. And Lieber everyone on here was hoping he was traded during last years trading frenzy.

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