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Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Comments

not that I don't trust the Inquirer, but the announcement that Moyer's starting game three and Lohse is up for game four makes me think Eaton may be on the roster. the playoff rotation says to me that Lohse is going to be available in relief if necessary, and if he's used then Manuel needs a backup game four starter - if not Eaton, then Hamels on short rest? Durbin? a Geary- or Condrey-led bullpen special?

Can you imagine the whining and moaning from Adam Eaton if he is left off the postseason roster? How on Earth can he still be on the team next year if this happens? Should be interesting, and EXACTLY the right move, IMO.

As for the Rockies...congratulations to them. It should be a very entertaining series with a lot of runs scored. Having said that, watch the games turn out to be 3-2 nailbiters. This season has not exactly turned out as expected.

I welcome all comers. The Bank will rocking tomorrow afternoon with King Cole on the mound mowing down the Rockies.

the pads match up looked better, but you can't get hung up about that sort of thing. its a team teh phils went 4-3 vs one they went 3-4. they've hit francis. they've hit everyone. i will say that the phils have the biggest homefield advantage in baseball. noise! noise! noise! i would love for the crowd to get on francis hard and early. heckle. chant his name. be foul if you must. just get in his head.

Ae, I agree putting Loshe fourth makes him a bullpenn possibility in Games 1 and 2, but that doesn't lead to having Eaton pitch Game 4.

Considering all of the off days, Loshe could pitch an inning or two in the first 2 games, and still come back for the Sunday start.

There is now way Eaton makes this roster.

There is now way Eaton makes this roster.

I hope you're right, Kdon. And I hope he gets traded for a bag of sunflower seeds in the offseason.

Some rankings (NL):

Runs:
PHI 1st
COL 2nd

Starter ERA:
COL 9th
PHI 12th

Bullpen ERA:
COL 6th
PHI 13th

Runs Scored:
PHI 892
COL 860

Runs Allowed:
PHI 821
COL 756

Pythag Record:
COL 91-72
PHI 87-75

I have a tough time believing this thing doesn't go 5.

Hey Birdoc, thanks dude for making my spelling error bold.

In re: Chollie as a post-season manager. He's been there once (Cleveland vs. Seattle)and lost a short series 2-3. I have the B-Ref page that has the series, including boxscores and play-by-play.

What's truly interesting (to me) is the cast of bizarre characters. It is almost a who's-who of Phillies cast offs: David Bell, Russell Branyan, Freddy Garcia, Jim Thome, Arthur Rhodes, Kenny Lofton (but who hasn't Lofton played for?); plus there's Jamie Moyer, pitching for Seattle and winning two of the games (an omen??).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2001_ALDS1.shtml

Looking at the boxes, it doesn't look like he made any obvious errors in judgment, but just got beat by a better team.

kdon - I'm not sure it would make a difference, but it may be more accurate to look at the pitching stats for just those pitchers who are likely to get the ball this week. Those starting pitching stats for the Phils, for instance, includes starts from people like Garcia, Eaton, and Durbin (the good and the bad starts) whose numbers wouldn't, I don't think, be beneficial in predicting how Hamels, Kyle, Moyer, and Lohse will fair this week.

I think there are many people who think that the Phils rotation for the playoffs is the strongest in the NL.

If Adam Eaton gets on the post-season roster, then I want a slot too.

I've at least done as much to help this team this year as he has. No, more.

On a slightly different note, I have a 3:00 meeting tomorrow. Hooray!

I'm going to find the man who invented DVR and kiss him on the lips (or I suppose it could be a woman, in which case I'll kiss her on the lips -- if it was team effort, however, I'll just pick out the most attractive person and kiss him/her on the lips -- or, what I'm trying to say is - thank God for DVR).

kdon: You forgot three important statistics -

Team Members Involved in Saving Grounds Crews
PHI - 25
COL - 1

Mascots in HOF -
PHI - 1
COL - 0

Games won where player misses home plate but gets the run anyway because he thinks he's the MVP and the Ump wants to go home cause it's effin late already and nobody seems to want to win this effin game:
COL - 1
PHI - Are you kidding? We wouldn't do that.

kdon, that may be true. plus - and I hate to say it because I really have nothing against the guy and he came up huge against Atlanta down the stretch - but Lohse isn't under contract for next year. if Manuel has to blow out his arm to win a postseason series, I think he'll do it without hesitation.

"I think there are many people who think that the Phils rotation for the playoffs is the strongest in the NL."

If you discount people who post on this site is it still "many people?"

;-)

It is interesting to see who the Rockies roll out for Game 2. I can't believe they will stick with Redman (who is guaranteed to get tattooed at CBP).

As for Game 1, I don't think the Phils have as much as advantage as people think. Hamels hasn't pitched well nearly as well during day games and I am willing to bet that Francis gives the Rockies a decent start.

It is going to be a tough series and I just hope the Phils can continue their mojo.

the thing is kdon, they aren't playing the rest of the league for 162 games. they are playing each other for five. those numbers lose a little significance. francis doesn't impress me much. the phls got him for 8 in 3 last time he was here. who starts vs kendrick? aaron cook? ubaldo jiminez? fogg won't start till the weekend and he is nothing to write home about either.

I like the Phils in games 1 and 2, and I like the Rocks in 3 and 4. I don't want this to go 5 but I think it will. If Cole wins both his games, and in his usual Cole-like fashion, he will quickly become a legend in this town.

Holiday gets all the attention but I am more worried about Tulowski though. He has been the guy that has come up biggest this year for the Rockies.

regarding if Manuel is the right guy for the postseason - I'm going to say yes. I think he understands that you have to go for broke in every game as demonstrated by his management down the stretch. and I think the limitations of the playoff roster and the short series (deemphasizing the depth of your bench/rotation/bullpen) will prevent some of his more obvious tactical mistakes.

kdon, the slate is clean now. I'm going to predict Phils in 4. Having Moyer go in game 3 is okay, especially if we can come into CO with two games in hand. Yes I know, I'm an optomist. Rox have never faced Cole, Kendrick won one and lost one this year vs. the Rox, but the one he lost was the hit on the leg game. Both of the kids have show extreme poise for 24 and 23 years old. Jamie just might be the guy to get it finished when we move to CO. Having Loshe for game for is a good backup plan..provides vet relief if the kids get in trouble and still around for game 4.

Redman actually shut us out for five innings in Philadelphia back on The Day - September 12. although we also rocked him in Atlanta back in May.

True sohpist, but here is the ERA+ (ERA adjusted for ballpark/league context) 100 is average

Starters:

PHI
Hamels 135
Kendrick 118
Moyer 91
Loshe 94

COL
Francis 112
Jimenez 111
Fogg 96
Morales 138

Basically, aside from Cole vs. Francis, the Phils won't have a big starter advantage in any game.

That's why I think it will go 5, with Cole beating Francis.

[If you discount people who post on this site is it still "many people?"]

Yes. In fact, the first person to tell me this was the Padres fan who sat behind me at the LSAT this weekend.

I know we love Kedrick, but there is no more reason to assume he will pitch well than Jimenez. The only real difference between the two is that Kendrick has 5 more starts.

kdon - How is there 4th starter's ERA+ better than Cole's? Crazy.

I think one reason some think the Phils have a better chance to win in 4 than for the series to go to 5 is the first 2 games. I think there's confidence on the blog that the Phils can take both, and then go to COL and get 1 of 2.

It's going to be a whale of a series. Intense with a capital I. Slight edge to the Phils. I agree with kdon; the series should go 5. Pat The Bat gets series MVP.

limoguy - if the series goes 5, I'm hoping that Hamels gets MVP (it would mean he shut them down twice).

Hard to say how this one will go. Rockies could come in and hammer Cole for 4-5 runs early (it does happen to him from time to time, and the Rockies ain't the Nats), the crowd would go quiet, and it could be a very, very long day.

Or, hopefully, Phils are rested, as is Hamels. They come out confident, Cole is strong early, CBP goes nuts, and they get an early lead and ride the wave. Meanwhile the Rockies are a bit spent from the long playoff game and cross country flight. I know they are tough, but c'mon, they aren't going to play at a 14-1 pace forever. They are due for a fall back to earth.

I go back and forth, but I have a sense that it's going to be important to jump out early and grab momentum and keep it going; as opposed to just coming out, doing the job, and taking it game to game. They've been digging out of holes successfully all year, but it's been a long climb, and you can't do it forever.

Who the heck knows how it will unfold? I was just enjoying the Phils getting here till now, but I'm starting to get nervous writing this. Go Phils!

Vegas certainly likes the Phils tomorrow.

COL 120
PHL -141

Steve Phillips choose Colorado to win the series.

He is always wrong about everything, gotta like our chances now

Sophist, because he has only started 8 games, and 5 of them were at Coors field.

I've never seen him pitch, but he certainly has good numbers:

1.220 WHIP, 2-1 K:BB ratio

I would certainly favor him over Moyer, and maybe Loshe.

kdon - I was just makin a joke.

Here's some fax for ya.
Phils projected 4 starters (all together):
ERA=4.21; WHIP=1.30; BAA=.243; K/9=6.4 HR/9=1.23

That doesn't look too bad when coupled with the phils offense.

Good point Sophist. Everybody expects big things out of Rollins, Utley and Howard, including me. If Burrell comes up big also, we win. So maybe I'm just saying that I'm expecting Pat to come up big.

How great is it that the Phils are division winners and not the wildcard winners? I'm not sure I would be proud wearing a hat that says "Phillies 2007 NL Wildcard" on it.

The Rockies' pitching isn't too good so we shouldn't have trouble scoring runs. I'm fairly concerned about the prospect of Jamie Moyer pitching against a strong Rockies offense at Coors Field. That sounds like a bad, bad matchup. It would be nice if the Phillies can win the first 2 at home. With Cole pitching, Game 1 is essential.

With regards to Hamels and day games, a 3 PM start will mean nasty shadows around 4 / 4:30. Getting an early lead will be key.

"Rockies are a bit spent from the long playoff game and cross country flight."

The jet lag thing is, actually, relevant. I seem to remember that it works one way but not the other, and, actually, seem to remember that it works in Philadelphia's favor. A team coming East often takes a game to adjust. Something like that.

It might be a reach, but a team with karma working takes every advantage.

There is a fairly serious drop off in the Rockies' line-up after Hawpe, who's actually one of the scariest of their bats in my mind. Cholly will do well to walk him whenever possible to get to Spilbourghs, et al. The bottom of the line-up is capable of hurting us, but we will have to get them out consistently and in big spots.

How could you possibly make a case for our rotation over the Cubs', Sophist?

BAP - Moyer has always excelled in the postseason. Check out his games against the very potent Cleveland team Chollie took to the playoffs in 2001. (B-Ref page I posted above.)

Some series predictions

PHL over COL
ARZ over CHI

NY over CLE
BOS over ANA

Skip Bayless just said Ryan Howard should be NL MVP. Actually is giving a good argument. It sounds like he watched the Phils the last 6 weeks.

His counterpart just gave an argument for Holliday, although it sounds like all his points are equally valid for Jimmy (big down the stretch, good numbers, yada yada)

IMO the Rockies aren't due to fall back to earth, the idea of reverting to career norms only applies during the regular season. EVERYONE says that you throw out regular season statistics in the post season. Look at A-rod, a perennial MVP candidate who chokes in the post season.

Tomorrow we enter uncharted territory, but that’s what the Phils navigate best.

Not sure if this has been pointed out yet:

PHILADELPHIA

BA Home .280
BA Away .268

RBI Home 427
RBI Away 423

OPS Home .832
OPS Away .792


COLORADO

BA Home .298
BA Away .261

RBI Home 451
RBI Away 363

OPS Home .849
OPS Away .731

Coors Field has had much more to do with the Rockies' offense than CBP has had to do with ours.

kdon: I'm a stat guy too, but even you have to admit some stats are woefully misleading. Neither Jimenez nor Morales pitched a full season. In fact, they didn't even pitch as many IP as Kendrick. Heck, Morales only had 39 IP!
Limited starts, partial stats=bogus comparison.

Sophist, you were sitting in front of a Padres fan at the LSAT? Did you give him/her a glance and then start coughing uncontrollably?

That is what I would have done. Gives you the edge in multiple ways.

Tray - I think there's a fair argument to be made. I didn't say I agreed with it. In fact, when this fan started talking about which team had the best rotation, I interrupted him and told him it was the Cubs.

Jamie Moyer's post season career numbers:

(3 - 1) 23.2 IP, 17 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 17 K
ERA= 2.66.

He's older, slower, but maybe wiser. I do not expect him to be easy pickins, even in Mile High.

BAP, I truly believe Cholly and the boys think they can win the first two. Putting a vet like Jamie out in game 3 in the opponents park is, to my way of thinking, the best person to toe the mound in that situation. It's not easy to rattle Jamie and if we're down two, we need a vet to turn things around. On more than once this year Jamie has proved to be the stopper.

No, parker. I am very competitive by nature, and needed to keep telling myself beforehand that how well anyone else in my room did was irrelevant to my attempt at a perfect score.

I did spend the breaks telling him his team could only beat nonsense teams in the last month of the year and that I'd rather face their nonsense lineup than the Rockies, though. And I was thinking about how he was crying himself to sleep last night given the state of the Chargers and Padres.

Honestly, Kdon, didn't even see the typo.

No matter. I got - and agreed with - your main point.

I think the Cubs' rotation is undeniably better over a 162-game season, but not necessarily in a short playoff series. although if Zambrano goes on a tear that would be huge for them.

I'm not 100% on this, but I'm pretty sure that Hamels stats at CBP are really good, maybe better than his road stats. I have to believe that Hamels starting in front of that crowd is the absolute best possibility for the team (As long as they score some runs). Hamels was electric in front of a similar crowd the other night (Granted it was the Nats).

I think this series will go five, but something tells me the Rox get to Cole tomorrow. Has Trevor Hoffman closed out ONE big game???? I want nothing to do with COL. Seems similar to our lineup in that there are no easy outs.

These guys can flat out rake, we all know that. Do we know who they will start the other three games?? Jiminez and Morales have zero experience but they throw gas. Like 100 MPH gas...at least one of them does.

I am driving down from NYC tom morning straight to CBP...I cannot wait. My boss is making me bring a sign that he is branding with our corporate logo...pretty lame..i think i'll conveniently lose it in the tailgaiting frenzy...Oh yes, he is also a demoralized Mets fan.

So you're saying that Joba Chamberlain might not really be as good as his 1156 ERA+?

And no, 1156 is not a typo.

Make sure you vote in the ESPN SportsNation pole.

The question is which NL team will advance to the World Series.

Right now the Cubs are winning.

I think in BBTN they said there was only 3 things that had any sort of predictive power as to who would win a series. Team FRAA, a staff's K rate, and closer WXRL. Anything else from the regular season bascially had no correlation. And the biggest factor was still luck... some numbers here

Sophist: Yeah, you are right, but I've always been a big fan of the Chevy Chase test taking strategy in "Spies Like Us:" Come in late to the test, wearing an eyepatch, face cast with phony arm, and overcoat. Say "Sorry I'm late, I had to attend the reading of a will." Attempt to bribe the monitor with the statement: "There is a thousand dollars in that wallet, or maybe there isn't." Fake a heart attack after a botched attempt to figure out what "KGB" stands for by asking Dan Akroyd.

It all seems good in theory except that it would get you kicked out of Law School (Or the LSAT) in a heartbeat.

Something in the link counts as comment spam, but just google "Cub Reporter" and "WXRL" and you'll get it

Parker, the same Nats that shredded the Mets and had a better record in the 2nd half then the boys in NY packing their bags. Forget the numbers, the season begins tomorrow, we and the Rox have pretty much the same level of experience on this stage. However some of our key players have played in a playoff atmosphere in the past even though we lost. I trust this team and the drive they have displayed.

"It all seems good in theory except that it would get you kicked out of Law School (Or the LSAT) in a heartbeat."

Sure, but look at how well it worked out for him in the movie!

Clout, I was only talking about Jimenez (Morales is unpredictable, but probably no more than Moyer at this point). Kendrick has started 20 games, Jimenez 15.

I just don't think that is a significant difference in those 5 starts to say that Kendrick is proven, and Jimenez is just some rookie.

Is Charlie going with the Werth lineup in game 1 against Francis? And does that mean Helms (ugh) starts at 3rd?

Re - the Seattle-Cleveland series - interesting names, but I recall that Cleveland was much less talented than Seattle but took them the distance and may have outplayed them, but didn't have the horses to close it out. It was Manuel vs. Pinella, which could potentially be the NLCS. The Yankees had the horses and took advantage of every weakness that Cleveland exposed. Plus Bob Melvin from AZ once managed the Mariners. Does everything have to have a Seattle connection? (I don't need to tell you who the 2001 M's GM was)...

- The two day games are a little strange. I am surprised that the second game wasn't sheduled as a night game. MLB never goes for what's fair, they only do what is best for TV ratings (Yankees or Red Sox games).

- If MLB had any clue, and I know this has been beaten to death over the years, they would revamp the entire playoff game times. Giving the TV networking whores and MLB marketing genius's any power is a sure fire way to lose fans of all ages. Hell, it's like having Britney Spears make parenting decisions based on her great mothering instincts.

- Watching the Padres vs Rockies last night, I felt like a Philadelphia fan is supposed to feel. That is usually us on the wrong end of a bad call. Maybe it does even out after all...naah.

- As I posted last night about replay's in baseball, what's the worst it might do, slow down the game? It's baseball...it's not supposed to be fast.

Another thing to consider. This shouldn't matter much if Hamels and Kendrick both win, but the truth is that of our starting pitchers, they are the two that are best suited to throw at Coors Field, because they're the least reliant on their breaking pitch. The air at Coors makes every curve ball (and most sliders) more hittable. We'll probably have Lohse and Moyer going in Colorado. They both need their curve balls: lately Lohse likes using it as an out pitch, and Moyer's change-up can't be as effective if he doesn't throw the occasional back-door curve.

The pitcher who relies most on his curveball? Myers.

So dilemma. I'm a grad student. I have a 2:30pm recitation tomorrow, then a 6:15pm class (can't skip that). So do I skip recitation to stay home until 5:45pm to watch the game (need to allow 30 minutes to get across town at rush hour for school).
I think the answer is yes.
Sadly I'm screwed for Thursday = 3:45-5:45pm class. Yuck.

I hate to rain on the Bud Selig conspiracy parade, but I have to point out that the first two games in the Yankees/Tigers series (which were at Yankee Stadium, no less) last year started at 3:14 PM and 3:15 PM.

no replays. no sending people back a base. no taking runs off the board. the game plays out as it happens. that ump should be fired for changing his mind (not for missing the call). did you notice that the call was very late. he knew that he never touched the plate. the no call was his original call.

Will Helms even be on the post season roster? I'd rather Iguchi as a right-handed bat (or any-handed) bat off the bench, and we'll definitely include Dobbs and Nunez.

I think Helms and Eaton should find a nice bar to watch the games together.

ae - I didn't conspiracy, I said 'fair'. One day vs one night game. Why should any team get saddled with two day games?
A - it screws a lot of the loyal fans who can't always take a day off from work to go to the game, let alone watch it on TV. B - It's tough to watch or even follow your team when they are playing day games, back to back.
Let the Cubs deal with that. They played day games forever at Wrigley. Selig should take charge of the MLB ship. In case no one noticed, it's listing badly.

the mlb's ship is not listing badly. Its not listing at all. baseball just broke an attendance record for something like the fifth straight year. There is a new ballpark bounce going on right now, but baseball is as popular now as its ever been, if not more.

kdon: You list Morales right there in your post, comparing him to the Phillies 4th starter. Bogus comparison.

I think Willie Randolph was just fired. Mets called a 1:30 press conference. Details unfolding over at Metsblog.

Sorry, that may have been premature. (oops)

Joe Morgan has some trenchant insights for us this afternoon.

Corey (Memphis): Mr. Morgan who do you favor in the Rocks/Phils series? Momentum is with both teams.

Joe Morgan: I favor the Phillies, because they'll have the homefield.

Johnny (Denver, CO): What's up Joe, Do you think Matt Holliday will win MVP or will it go to Jimmy Rollins?

Joe Morgan: Jimmy Rollins. I think he was the catalyst all year. He kept them afloat at the beginning when Howard was injured. They lost Utley for a while and they continued to win. I think Rollins was the catalyst.

Peter , Lawrenceville GA: Mr, Morgan in your opinion what two teams will clash in the AL for the title? and why?

Joe Morgan: That's a very difficult question. No matter what we think we still have to play the game. (Goes on to say how any team could win if they pitch well.)

Dave (Eau Claire, WI): Hey Mr. Morgan, What do you think of the Cubbies chance at the series this year with the Mets and Padres making their exits before October begins?

Joe Morgan: Anyone that's in the playoffs now, can win the World Series. We saw that last year with the Cardinals. They looked like the worst team going into the playoffs but emerged as the world champions. Anyone has a chance. I would rate them as Boston and New York as having the best chances. Cleveland, Philadelphia, the Angels, the Cubs, Rockies. Again, any one of those teams can win.

So "Mr. Morgan" believes that the AL teams have the first, second, third, and fifth "best chances" at winning the World Series. That seems mathematically impossible.

Regal....absolutely 100% without a doubt skip whatever you can skip to watch the game...is this school in phila area?? if so, profs will understand attendance might be lacking....I probably shouldnt take off from work in NYC to go to the game but what are ya gonna do...i was 11 years old last time we made the playoffs!

m nutt -

I am not a big fan of baseball replay either. My point is, if the umps can't be relied on to make the right call, it is a suggested solution. If we were on the same side of that bad call as SD, there would be a whole lot of bitching going on here.

McClellan clearly missed that call and his hesitation clearly showed that. Since Holliday never scrambled back to touch the plate that he clearly missed, McClellan went with his best guess. Holliday didn't scramble back because he nearly knocked himself unconscious with his lame ass, face planting, slide. Our MVP would never have slid in that way!

Sorry clout, I wasn't trying to imply that Morales was the best starter of the bunch. ERA + is not the best metric to judge a pitcher with 30 or so innings. However, you have to evaluate him somehow; you can't just claim he'll be a scared kid and ignore what he has accomplished.

The overall point though, is I don't see how you make a case that the Phils have a clear advantage at starter.

ae: thats nice. when did the Mets play? (4pm, 8 pm and 7pm vs Dodgers) Looks like every game vs. st louis was at night too.

http://queens.about.com/od/mets/a/metspostseason.htm

Tray, been reading some FJM recently?

I actually agree that the AL has probably the top 4 teams in baseball, though speaking in strict probabilistic terms, you are right that the AL can't have 4 of the top 5 chances.

Actually, sorry. It seems the Mets called a press conference to say the Willie Randolph is not getting fired.

anyone know when we get to see the rosters???

How many members of Colorado's pen' are going to be on the post-season roster? Their insanely large pen' played a large role in spliting that last series.

District - agreed on the attendence point. That is due to the new MLB ballpark syndrome, along with all of the hokey stadium PR extra's they bring with them too. I was refering to the PR hits that MLB has been taking with other issues and the Ostrich-like, head in the sand stance that Selig and other's have chosen to take. I still feel that MLB does a poor job of making games get played at a watchable hour. Hell, some of these games are on so late, it's at the hour when most guys are watching the Playboy Channel.

All this posting/speculating about pitching matchups drives me nuts.

This is baseball - anything can happen - especially with two teams that can hit like these two can.

Also, either team can be shut down, even by mediocre pitchers.

The shadows that will fall on the field will have a major impact on the first two games at CBP, especially on the hitters. Remember how Matt Chico (yeah, him) held the Phils potent lineup in check on Saturday.

So, have fun and speculate all you want to about the pitching matchups.

The games still have to be played. Just ask the Mets.

kdon: How do you define "clear advantage"? Hamels tops Francis and Kendrick tops Jimenez even by your own metric. You're on shaky ground already on Jimenez and the metric fails altogether on Morales. Lohse is certainly better than Fogg. If you're looking for a Rockies advantage, I suggest looking at the bullpen, not the rotation.

Seriously though, could someone explain to me why, besides having the home field, we'd be favored in this series? Our offense is a little better than theirs; their pitching is significantly better than ours. We have two reliable guys in our bullpen; they have four (I'm counting Hawkins and Herges - both have been really good this year), and they really don't have any awful relievers, while in our case, beyond our top three, everyone's pretty marginal. We're hot; they're hotter, and their 14 out of 15 came against much better teams than our 13 out of 17. Also, though we've been winning, we haven't been hitting that well. The only argument I've heard for us is that their starters are really young and may not be able to handle playoff pressure. But then, so is Kendrick, and for that matter, who knows how a guy like Myers will handle pitching in the playoffs.

Andy/Grumpy: I don't doubt Jamie's big-game ability. But his big game ability may not be able to overcome the combination of hittable stuff & Coors Field's atmospheric conditions. Even when he's on, Moyer gives up a huge number of hard hit balls. Those balls will be hit even harder in Coors Field.

Then again, even many of the league's top pitchers have miserable nubmers at Coors Field. In some sense, the conditions even out, since both teams have to play there. But the Rockies are used to the conditions & have had the luxury of building their entire team for their home park. That's why I think it's important that we win the first 2 at home.

Do you think Cholly starts Wes Helms because of the lefty vs righty match ups that he is so enamored with? Please someone say no. If Wes sucked for 162 games, he surely won't find "it" now. He killed their mojo Saturday along with Eaton. Cholly does seem to favor No Hit of late, but at least he flashes some leather.

no hit *is* due for a bomb.

I think Nuni might get the nod over Helms...lots of right handed bats could get out in front of coles changeup, ensuring a lot of opportunities at 3B..ill take Nunis D over helms lackluster 1-4 (at best) any day

Mr Mac/Voice of Reason - I'd rather have night games too. my only point is that the knee-jerk reaction that the Phils are getting ignored at the expense of the Yankees/Red Sox/whoever is really not justified based on last year's postseason schedule.

and Voice of Reason, the Mets aren't nearly as big a draw as the Yankees. I don't know why an evil mastermind like Selig would intentionally schedule the Yankees early and the Mets late, unless that's just the way it played out.

I repeat - Wes Helms will not be on the post-season roster. Neither is Adam Eaton -

Phillies drop Eaton from postseason roster
Posted: Tuesday Oct 2, 2007 1:51 PM

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -Despite Adam Eaton's big contract, the Phillies can't afford to pitch him in the playoffs.

Eaton was left off Philadelphia's postseason roster for their first round-series against Colorado. The Phillies will use a four-man rotation, so Eaton didn't make the cut.

"It's the best case for the team,'' Eaton said Tuesday.

Signed to a $24.5 million, three-year free-agent deal last offseason, Eaton was a bust. He was 10-10 with a 6.29 ERA in 30 starts. In his last 10 outings, the right-hander was 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA.

"Because of the way others have performed, he's the odd man out,'' general manager Pat Gillick said.

All-Star lefty Cole Hamels (15-5) will pitch Game 1 on Wednesday and rookie Kyle Kendrick (10-4) is set to start Game 2.

Right-hander Kyle Lohse will pitch out of the bullpen in the first two games. If he isn't used in either one, Lohse (9-12) likely would start Game 3 and veteran lefty Jamie Moyer (14-12) would start Game 4, if it's necessary.

Eaton has made just two relief appearances in his eight-year career, so using him that way wasn't an option.

"I had two bullpen appearances in '05 coming back from an injury and those didn't go well,'' Eaton said. "To throw in the emotion of the postseason and a situation you haven't been in before is a little tough for anybody. I would've done it if they asked me, but that wasn't in the cards.''

Originally drafted in the first round by the Phillies in the 1996 amateur draft, Eaton never won more than 11 games or pitched 200 innings in any season. Still, the Phillies gave him a hefty deal after he was 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA in 13 starts in his only season with Texas last year. Eaton won 11 games in consecutive seasons with San Diego before he was traded to the Rangers in December 2005.

In 2005, Eaton reached the playoffs with the Padres. He was scheduled to pitch Game 4 of a first-round series against St. Louis, but San Diego got swept.

"There, I was able to, but not able to at the same time,'' Eaton said. "Now, not being on the roster takes it out of your hands. The best thing I can do for the team is be on the bench and be an extra set of eyes and ears. I had opportunities all year, but we play the postseason to get to the World Series and win it. I'm still part of the team, but I don't get out on the field, so I'll help from the dugout.''

The Phillies are going with 10 pitchers in the first round. The six relievers are closer Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, J.C. Romero, Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey and Jose Mesa. Geoff Geary has an elbow injury, but he might return for the NLCS if the Phillies get that far.

Philadelphia took three catchers as insurance because starter Carlos Ruiz hurt his elbow when he got hit with a pitch in the season finale. Ruiz is day-to-day. Keeping Rod Barajas also allows Manuel to use Chris Coste as a pinch-hitter.

Eaton and extra outfielder Chris Roberson will stay with the team as extras in case of injuries. Final rosters are due 10 a.m. EDT Wednesday, so the Phillies can still make changes.

thanks for the update Ribbies

Assuming the Phils get to the next round and Masdon is ready, I'd add him to the mix and drop either Alf or Table.

Yeah, I was just searching for the roster rules and then this popped up. I still can't find a final roster, but my guess is that this stuff was just leaked. I really am curious if Helms is going to make it. My guess is that he will.

Wish Geary could be there instead of Mesa.

I can't make tomorrow's game and was selling my 3 tickets on e-bay. E-bay pulled my auction with ten minutes left because of trademark infringment. I had a photo of the Philly Phanatic! R they serious?! Someone was willing to give me $600 for me 3 tickets ... to make matters worse I can't relist because the minimum auction is one day ... I hate E-Bay!

Sell them on Craigslist, Rutgers.

I saw a pair going on there for $1000 this morning.

Ribbie - I count 24 players with that rundown. 10 pitchers, 3 catchers, 6 infielders & 5 outfielders.

Sophist, you were right when you wrote: "How great is it that the Phils are division winners and not the wildcard winners? I'm not sure I would be proud wearing a hat that says "Phillies 2007 NL Wildcard" on it."

I saw those stupid (also ugly gray) WC hats being placed on the Rox' heads and it just looked weird!

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EST. 2005

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