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Monday, October 01, 2007

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thanks so much for this site...for all your time and efforts to keep this puppy running.....rock on J, beerleaguer team, and phils!

More good news ...

Comcast added TBS HD today.

hey this site is incredible, weitzel you're the man for maintaining this site and making sure everything runs smoothly.

i have to say though - that over the last couple weeks and months especially, all you other posters have been like a family to me. this has made the phils' recent ride all the more enjoyable, reading about all the of your stories which are so similar to mine, really demonstrating the ultimate roller coaster ride we have experienced with our phils in the last few years, culminating in a trip to the promised land this year. this is why i want to, really NEED to, watch the games with a group of you guys to truly enjoy this experience. we have waited so god damn long for this team to get back. and finally, there they are.

all of us have, at times, said we've given up on this team. but there's a reason we still support the phillies day in and day out. we as philadelphia fans are the most passionate and devoted fans on the earth, i stand by that statement. we deserve this, and thus far this team has not disappointed.

enjoy these next couple days people, and get ready for wednesday - it's going to be glorious!!

Jason has Photoshop (and has it quite well), I have Excel (and am still getting there). Everyone has their own strength.

For those more statistically prefered, remember that Billy Beane in Moneyball bluntly stated that "My $h!t doesn't work in the playoffs." As to what stats work, the jury is out - there is not a lot of correlation between regular season stat performance and playoff performance. Hardball Times had an article three years ago on this, and BP's "Baseball Behind the Numbers" dedicates a whole chapter to Beane's earthy declaration.

About six weeks ago, I made the argument that Myers was the 10th most effective closer in baseball at the time, based on four critical stats. The post was on or around August 25 and feel free to check it for my rationale. The stats were saves/blown saves + losses, GB/FB ratio, K/BB ratio, and Fangraphs/Baseball Prospectus's Win Probability Added.

I measured the same way with the closers of the nine remaining teams with their season long stats - Papelbon, Rivera, Borowski, Frankie Rodriguez, Myers, Dempster, Corpas, Hoffman, and Valverde. The results are not encouraging for Myers. They are not bad - Myers has proven his effectiveness, especially over other closers in the majors, but he is nowhere near the absolute best. In order of rank, the best closers on teams still "in it" are Papelbon, Rodriguez, Rivera, Hoffman, Valverde, Borowski, Corpas, Myers, and Dempster.

More stat-diving later. I must find the value in the Value Village!!

JR -- That's excellent news. Nice find.

I guess we can start talking 25 man roster now, right?

I'd go:

C
Ruiz
Coste

IF
Howard
Utley
J-Roll
Dobbs
Nunez
Taguchi

OF
PtB
Rowand
Vic
Werth
Bourn

SP
Hamels
Kendrick
Loshe
Moyer

RP
Myers
Gordon
Romero
Geary
Condrey
Durbin
Castro

That leaves one spot. If we play COL, I think you have to add Helms to "hit" against Francis. As bad as he has been, he is still a better hitter against LHP than Dobbs or Nunez.

If we play SD, we don't need a RH 3B so the point is moot.
My guess is that Helms will be there no matter what, but I think he is wasted against a RHP heavy team like San Diego.

I also leave off Alfonseca and Mesa, because statistically, they are the worst pitchers on the team, "veternacity" be damned.

Mike H.: I'm curious... do your rankings change if you just look at those closers over the last three weeks? I think Myers has been much better down the stretch as he's become more comfortable in the role. Also, I think Myers brings a 2 inning advantage that many of those closers can't provide.

Can't wait for Wednesday. Already took the day off on Thursday to recover. Thanks for helping to enhance the Phillies experience (even further) for me and countless others. Great work!

i echo everyones sentiments about this being such a great place for all of us to get together to comiserate and finally celebrate a division crown...but we've still got 11 wins to go...lets just continue to enjoy the ride...question

Presuming J ROll locked up the MVP yesterday...has there ever been a player who won the MVP without making the all star team??

kdon: I think Mesa actually makes it over Durbin or Castro... and Helms is definitely on the roster. There's no other bench player that makes more sense.

MLB will announce playoff times by 4pm ET.

One thing I think you have to take into account with Myers is that he's still being conditioned and learning how to be a closer. I would say he's getting better at it. He struggled against the Braves in the Smoltz game, but didn't appear to rattle or come unglued after a couple of hits, as in the past. Maybe I'm reaching, but there might be some progress there. I'm still shocked that Gordon actually pulled it together and was effective the last month.

I know CJ, but really, SD has only one real lefty (Hampton), and if he faces Dobbs, you can always PH with Iguchi and then put Nunez in.

In that case, I'd rather have Roberson. I know that won't happen, but I think against a team with almost all RHP, Roberson (amzingly!) is a better option than Helms.

i'll be pretty surprised if mesa, helms, or alf are left off the postseason roster.

@kdon-
i agree with you, i wouldn't have helms on the postseason roster either.
that being said, he might not be able to be on the roster because of the health of Ruiz. he was taken out of the game yesterday, any word on his progress??
also, regarding Eaton, i'd love to not have him on the postseason roster either, but if it would hypothetically come down to 1 of: Mesa, Pulpo, Eaton, I would actually take eaton out of those 3.

lastly, if you think about putting our best hitting lineup out there:
J roll, Vic, Utley, Howard, Rowand, PtB, Dobbs, Ruiz/Coste, pitcher,
our bench players would be:
Ruiz/Coste, Iguchi, Nunez, Werth, Bourn - that's 3 righties, 1 switch hitter (technically better from the right side), and 1 lefty. don't know if this is a major concern but whatever.

My guess is that the last spot is left empty, as a tribute to Pete LaForest.

Roberson gives you nothing and neither does Helms. I guess you can use Roberson to pinch run....that's about all I'd trust him to do.

isn't it amazing after all the DFAs and outrights this year that we're all pretty much in agreement that condrey is a safe bet to be in the postseason pen?

Too bad LaForest isn't eligible, because he makes sense. A LH hitter, who also provides insurance at catcher.

"i'll be pretty surprised if mesa, helms, or alf are left off the postseason roster."

Me too bathtub, pleasantly surprised.

I agree, they will make the roster...I just hope they don't do anything dumb like putting Eaton on instead of Condrey.

one more thing. promise not to laugh. i actually think Eaton could be somewhat valuable to the phils in the postseason - ill tell you why...

think how many postseason games you've seen in the past however many years that have gone into extra innings (10, 12, 15 inning games). there's almost always one situation where the pitcher's spot comes up in the lineup in a big spot, but all of the bench players (maybe except for the backup catcher) have been used.

well think about eaton as a guy who can come in and throw some innings out of the pen, and also as a bat off the bench. i know that's totally unconventional, but you're talking about a guy who arguably had a better offensive season than Nunez, Helms, Roberson, and Laforest.

ok maybe i'm totally off my rocker, but i dont know. i actually think having eaton on the postseason roster makes a little sense. at least in a pitching sense, if guys like mesa or alf are gonna be on the team, eaton should be on it.

Great, great post, Jason.

I was a freshman in college during the fall of 1993...I remember the euphoria when the Phils beat the Braves to advance to the World Series. I think all of us - of a certain age - remember the heartbreak of Carter's homerun.

This is going to be one hell of a ride. I feel privileged to be able to share it with my fellow Beerleaguers.

I just wanted to re-post some of my thoughts from yesterday, This is my rookie season as beerleaguer reader and occasional poster but i don't post much because i dont' have as much knowledge and stat info as a lot of the regulars, but i read this site every day and i really appreciate all the time Jason you take to do this, and all the regulars who make this site what it is, I too was transported back to '93 yesterday, because i was at the game yesterday with my brother and it reminded me of the great feeling we both had being at game 1 of NLCS against the braves. We had to talk each other off the cliff a few times during this season (and throughout all our phillies years) but it was just a great feeling to be able to celebrate the win in Philly! and will be able to watch October Phillies baseball again and Beerleaguer just made it that much better, thank you all, Let's Win The World Series!!

I'd take Mesa over Eaton, as crazy as that sounds. Mesa actually had a couple of effective appearances in September, which is more than you could say for Eaton. Eaton would be guaranteed not to get through an inning out of the pen against any of the playoff teams.

Condrey has been a nice surprise too. If it wasn't for meltdowns in blowout games, he would easily have the best bullpen ERA other than Romero.

Condrey since June 8:

38 IP, 43 H, 18 K, 9 BB, 3.05 ERA, .703 OPS against.

Alfonseca hasn't pitched in a game since September 17th... a game in which he threw 6 strikes and 6 balls, gave up one hit, one walk and 2 runs (1 earned).

I think the chances of him making the post-season roster is very, very slim.

Jose Mesa, on the other hand, has had three scoreless appearances since that day (3.2 IP, 0 H, 1 BB).

I think Mesa still makes this postseason roster. There's no question he was a disaster for a week between Aug 17 and Aug 24 (29.70 ERA), but I think Manuel learned a lesson about how often Mesa can pitch. It's better to spread him out if you have to use him at all.

"he would easily have the best bullpen ERA other than Romero."

Duh, Myers too.

i hate laforest, having him ineligible means that cholly can't make one of the few mistakes he consistently made in september. thank god! (generic matchups be damned! a LH bat who hits .100 is a worse option than RH bat who hits .220 against RHP!)

that's right, i'd even rather have barajas in there....and he may very well make it if carlos can't go in the NLDS for some reason.

@CJ - It's an interesting point. I have a theory and it is related to the "Hot Goalie Syndrome" in hockey. You know the kind... like Brodeur when Jersey won the Cup. You could slap three pucks at him simultaneously and he'd hit all three.

I'll break down the closer stats for the month of September late, late tonight.

CJ,

Looking over Mesa, you are right, he has been as unequivocably horrible as I thought. The only reason I would take someone like Durbin over him is the ability to pitch multiple innings.

You have to assume that will all the off days, that after the 6th inning, the only pitchers we use are Romero, Gordon, Myers, and maybe Geary.

I would be worried about Mesa only because Cholly might think his history made him suited to pitch some crucial innings.

And Alfonseca *really* has no business on the team.

It's funny to me that some of these 25-man projections (which seem very reasonable) don't include Wes Helms.

I agree that having Nunez and Dobbs is better than having Helms, but it is just amazing that we have gotten to this point. I mean, Helms' whole raison d'etre was to be a David Bell improvement. At least Bell would have been on a postseason roster! Now, Wes Helms may have to settle for just being Andy Bernard's cousin.

Although, he did start on Saturday (how'd that turn out?) so I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him end up on the roster.

Also, I think it's more likely that Mesa and/or Alfonseca will be on the roster than Durbin. Both of these guys have been around the block and having them on the club isn't the worst thing in the world (and let's face it, we're not going to see either of them unless there's a total meltdown, anyway -- we have a 3-man bullpen, plus you may see Moyer coming out of the pen at some point).

Thank you, Mr. Weitzel, for this space ... you've done our hometown a service.

Now, if they would just hurry the hell up and post the game times ...

Should read: "he has NOT been as unequivocably horrible as I thought."

If one were to write an anonymous blog (cheap plug: oldmansnap.blogspot.com), one would rob himself of a point he made earlier on this anonymous blog he may write:

(I've) been not believing since the Carter home run and (I) listened to some idiot in pigtails with *huge* glasses and face paint say, "We're goh-in' back next year!" while (I) sat, slumped in the hallway of (the) dorm, Meister Brau hidden in our pocket, 14 years ago, knowing that Gregg freaking Jeffries wouldn't be the answer).

JW, et. al.: Beerleaguer made my year this year. It sucks being out of pocket and in the New York market, especially when I go to the grocery store and there are Mets t-shirts on sale.

But reading this, and seeing all the tomfoolery and discussions and bile and love and, well, just the last 600 posts alone yesterday vindicated us all because at the end of the day, we all love us some Phillies.

I just watched the YouTube clip of the last three outs yesterday and daggum if I didn't get, oh, what's the word?

Freaking goosebumps.

Dan,

Justin Morneau was not an All-Star last year. He joined Chipper Jones (Atlanta, 1999), Juan Gonzalez (Texas, 1996), Terry Pendleton (Atlanta, 1991), Robin Yount (Milwaukee, 1989), Kirk Gibson (Los Angeles Dodgers, 1988), Willie Stargell (Pittsburgh, 1979), Dave Parker (Pittsburgh, 1978), Don Newcombe (Brooklyn, 1956), and Hank Greenberg (Detroit, 1935) as MVPs who weren't all-stars in the same year.

i think the Padres starters for the NLDS would go Maddux, Young, Peavy, Tomko, Maddux. This is the only way they could do it without pitching someone on short rest.

i think the Rockies would go Francis, Jimenez, Fogg, Redman, Francis.

Do you think the Phils will go with Kendrick or Lohse for game 2?

thanks Bedrock....oh yeah i forgot morneau came out of nowhere in 2nd half

TB...im sure they would go with kendrick in game 2 and lohse in game three....obviously, the first two at home are huge..don't want to go to SD tied at 1 facing peavy...i hope its san diego, cause the rockies can flat out rake and are even hotter than the phils

VUK is definitely smiling up in heaven

I am already sick and tired of hearing how the Mets "blew it." While they did go 5-12 to end the year we started the year 4-11. I do not recall at the time anyone commenting on how we handed the Mets the East.

Go Phillies!!

kdon: Castro? Good God!

@TB,etc:

Brett Tomko is ineligible for the Pads' postseason roster, as he signed with the team after he cleared waivers on September 4th.

so their rotation would most likely go:
Maddux, Young, Peavy, Cassell, Maddux. either way, i think we all agree that the padres won't be the same team if Peavy can only pitch 1 game in the NLDS.

Kendrick in Game Two. Has to be. I love capitalizing Game Two, by the way.

I think Durbin is on the roster. He did pretty well as a long reliever. The one curiosity is whether they will select Mesa over Alfonseca or vice versa. It's an unfortunate choice, but I think I'd go with Alfo.

also, regarding the rockies, i'm pretty scared of them to tell you the truth. Francis is pretty nasty, and the phils couldn't touch Redman or Jimenez for the most part, so that would be a very, very tough match-up for them.

This is pretty pathetic that MLB can't determine the game times yet for Wednesday and Thursday. I live in DC and have tickets to game two and feel like a dope telling my boss I may be out all day Thursday but may not...this is really bad form by the league.

@CJ: Alfie's last appearance was actually 9/23. He got one out and gave up 2 runs in the loss to the Nats. He does not belong on the PS roster. Mesa does, not that he's a good option.

@kdon: It doesn't make sense to use guys like Castro in the playoffs who were barely ever used in the season.

Peavy? Didn't we beat him already this year in San Diego? When Durbin threw a complete game shutout? Start the Real Deal in game 3!

Funny because I was talking about Castro with my dad last night. He does give you another lefty out of the pen but that is about it. Can't throw strikes with any kind of consistently though and as much as it pains me, you have to give the nod to Mesa or Alfonseca (how actually has been horrible the past month or so).

Suprised you were the first to notice it clout!

Thinking on Castro is that since it is highly unlikely the last pitcher in the pen will pitch anyway, you might as well go with a LOOGY who can face someone like Gonzalez or Helton if Romero isn't available

2007 vs. LH:

16 AB, 1 H, 8 K, 4 BB (.313 OPS against)

Career vs LH:
43 AB, 4 H, 12 K, 8 BB (.282 OPS against)

Eskin is reporting that Eaton is off the playoff roster, and the brass is debating between Geary and Condrey with Geary slightly ahead. Of course it's not official yet, but he's basing it off of info from high authority.

TB23: No doubt Kendrick pitches game two at home, especially with his 1.55 G/F ratio. This season, Lohse is at 0.95 G/F. Although, part of the reason he seemed to have pitched better for us than in Cincy is that his G/F climbed from 0.84 in Cincy to 1.27 in Philly.

still guys, this is the phillies....mesa and alf are vets...were i a betting man, i would wager that they'll be on the postseason roster.

WTF? The debate is between Geary and Condrey? That must mean both Mesa and Alfonseca are on.

That's a joke.

if condrey isn't on the roster, it's a shame. after all the crap he's been through this year, he's earned it. and it isn't as if he's actually a worse option than most of the others. eaton SHOULD be off the roster, he's no good in the pen, and he won't start. if eaton is off, there's no way condrey and geary both shouldn't be on there.

also, eskin is a jackmo who should be traded to NY for a media personality to be named later.

what do we think the times will be?? i know MLB should post them momentarily...i would guess ARI/CHI might be an afternoon game and the phils would be the 8 oclock..theres one AL game too right?

I stumbled upon this site around the start of this season. Now I am an everyday visitor (usually multiple times per day). Great job.

Is Madson eligible for the postseason roster?

control13: Not sure how I missed that appearance, but I think it's even more evidence that he won't be on the roster.

I'd go with:
Hamels
Kendrick
Lohse
Moyer

Myers
Gordon
Romero
Geary
Mesa
Condrey
Durbin or Castro... Castro if they think they need another lefty more or Durbin if they're worried about needing more innings.


" It doesn't make sense to use guys like Castro in the playoffs who were barely ever used in the season."

c13, sure it does, in fact it makes a lot of sense.

Over a a 162 game season, you need flexibility from your entire roster. In the playoffs, with extra off days and no chance of resting starters, you can afford to have an extreme specialist like Castro (or a speedy PR) on the team.

guys, there is just no way that castro is on the postseason roster.

Hippo- I know Eskin's an ass, but usually his inside info is good.

Would they really even consider Castro? I'd rather go with Durbin since he isn't a walk machine.

kdon, what exactly is castro's speciality? issuing walks?

Why would the Phillies create their post-season roster before knowing who they were playing?

Yet another reason why I want the Pads to win: their lefties are mostly LOOGies. If there's a pitcher that will cause the most problems for our bats, it's left handed junkball starters. Colorado would have Francis (L), Fogg, Ublado Jimenez, and Franklin Morales (L).

kdon: Not necessarily. If they're carrying 7 relievers, we know that Myers, Gordon, Romero are definites. That leaves these pitchers for four spots:

Geary, Mesa, Alfonseca, Durbin, Condrey, and Castro.

Mesa is a definite in my mind. If they took Castro as the 2nd lefty and Durbin for long relief then it comes down to Condrey (long relief) or Geary (short relief) as the last argument. I'm not sure Alfonseca is in the discussion. But I could be wrong.

i saw helms, yes. alf, maybe. mesa, no. even if what mesa has doen this year isn't enough, he is a guy who blows big games much like wagne. i know "smart" baseball fans don't like to look at things like that but not all situations are created equal. mesa is a guy traditionally falls apart in big games, much like rat wagner.
back to helms i don't like him and it would be fun to leave him off the roster, but it doesn't make sense. who would you take instead? roberson who i do not trust to pinch run or play defense? another bum pitcher who won't pitch unless the phils are out of a game? helms adds a viable pinch hitter and gives flexability by being another infeilder.
eaton could be on as the 25th man to emergency pitch or pinch hit. if somehow the phils do get blown out of a game you need someone to suck up innings and save the pen. eaton can do that.

Granted, the last couple of guys on the Phils' playoff roster are going to be of real marignal value. This has been a problem all year and it isn't going to change now.

There are only two guys I don't want to see on the postseason playoff roster:

LaForest
Eaton

I admit that I don't know much about LaForest's defensive merits. Just didn't see him enough. As for his offensive skills, he doesn't bring any value to the plate besides being a left-handed bat. I guess he gets some consideration if the Phils are worried that Ruiz is banged up.

Amazing how far Barajas has fallen when he will almost definitely be left off the playoff roster and a career journeyman the Phils picked up off the waiver wire is likely to make it before him.

As for Eaton, I would rather that the "Durbinator" make the playoff roster than him. Eaton isn't going to start and he is a horrendous option out of the bullpen.

Eaton always get hammered in his 1st inning. Plus, Eaton can never find the strike zone in his first 10-15 pitches. To top it off, Eaton has pitched well since May. He has done nothing to deserve a playoff roster spot.

Today on the radio (WNYC - New York Public radio), the talk guy was inviting call ins from Mets fans to state what stage of grieving they were in (a la Kubler-Ross). The best one was an e-mail who said, "What stage is disgusted?" There was also one caller who pointed out that Castillo didn't even run out his groundout in the ninth.

My main point: another guy called who was not too heart-broken. he said that, to him, it seemed as if some other power had taken over the season with a few weeks to go. I had two answers for him: 1) "Yeah, baby: the Phils, man!" and 2) Karma - a) all the bad Karma the Mets stored up by whining all year and b) all the good Karma the Phils earned by not whining AND by running out to help the Rox' ground crew (Eaton haters have to remember that Adam was out there too, yankin hard on the tarp, despite being the starting pitcher and still slated to resume whaen the rains were over - if anyone had an excuse not to run out it was him).

NOW. If Karma is involved and the tarp thing is central, then it will be the Rox and not the Pods who win today, because it is necessary for the Phils to defeat them in their own house. It would be appropriate if Vic scored the winning run, too, because of the superhuman effort he put into his "groundskeeping."

With how rarely Charlie has used Alfonseca, and Geary's slightly frequent appearances in fairly key games, I can't imagine Alfie makes it over Geoff.

Jimbo, Madson would be eligible because he was on the DL on August 31.

His 60 day DL stint I believe is over (he last pitched July 29), but I don't know if he is healthy.

FWIW, this was on his CBS sportsline page, with no attibution:

Injured reliever Ryan Madson could be ready to pitch in two weeks if the Phillies make the playoffs. Madson has been sidelined since late July because of a shoulder strain. He has a 3.05 ERA in 38 appearances.
(Updated 09/27/2007).

@Jimbo:
Madson is eligible for the postseason roster. what they can do is, if the phils make it to the next round, activate him for the NLCS as he might be healthy enough to contribute by then.

@MG:
i know you had been a little negative and pessimistic recently about our chances, but how good does it feel?! you're believing now, right?? ;)

also, anyone go to the rally? it was pretty fun. a great day to be outside and a huge crowd. semi-cheesey, but a good chance to cheer the phils and see that pat burrel even dresses like a douce. highlights included mvp chants and brett myers in his "court" suit. city hall and center city made for a lovely backdrop and modells in the gallery was mobbed afterwards.

MG: You mean *hasn't* pitched well, right? I say leave Eaton on the roster. He sprays a mean bottle of champagne and has a nice smile and hugs good when the team clinches division titles.

Kdon: Or it could mean Durbin is in? Either way I think not including both Geary and Condrey is a mistake. I don't trust Alfonseca in there anymore AT ALL

MG: Correct me if I'm wrong, but LaForest isn't eligible for the postseason roster.

"kdon, what exactly is castro's speciality? issuing walks?"

bathtub, it makes for a much better forum when you actually read other people's posts.

I repeat:

Castro 2007 vs. LH:

16 AB, 1 H, 8 K, 4 BB (.313 OPS against)

Castro Career vs LH:
43 AB, 4 H, 12 K, 8 BB (.282 OPS against)

Anyone: Seven minutes til four. Have they seriously not announced the playoff times yet? How hard can it be?

kdon: Castro's career numbers are irrelevant. He's been awful this season, had chronic control problems and allowed runs in 2 of his last 3 appearances, his only clean one just facing 1 batter. I don't think Mesa, Castro or Alfonseca should be on the team, but if forced to choose at least Mesa has been clean in 4 of his last 5 appearances. Let's face it, beyond the top 3, this bullpen sucks and you're choosing bad from among bad.

Jason, great concluding admonition: "My suggestion: Don’t go away empty handed. Forget what you think you know because it’s all about to change. Absorb it. Feel it. Revel in it, and I will be doing the same. This wouldn’t be a labor of love without a love."

Reading all these posts, working a little, coming back, hitting the refresh icon, reading more, is just good feelings bathing my brain.

I was a boy in 1964, broken hearted. My dad talked about the Whiz Kids. 1915 was before he was born. The Phils finally won in 1980 and I was in Denver, Colorado. There was no internet, then. I enjoyed the victory but shared it with no one.

In 1983, I was newly engaged and in New Orleans. My wife to be was not enjoying my need to watch the Phillies. I told her that these times are rare and I had to savor it. They were. No playoffs for the bloodstripes until 10 years later. Mitch Williams let us down during that Series and it has been a long time. I know that an infield of Rollins, Utley and Howard in their prime will not last forever. This is a special team that deserves to win. That's why we get pissed when turds like Eaton cause us to lose and make excuses. Savor it. Savor today.

I agree with RSB from the last thread. A true Phillies fan expects the worst and enjoys the rare postseason.

I enjoy the posters that write that Beerleaguer is special. It is. Savor it.

I thank the Doctor, from the last thread that put me in the Beerleaguer Hall of Fame. It's quite a compliment to even be considered for such an honor. I'm savoring it!

the funniest thing about this postseason schedule is that it is totally independant of the play-in game tonight and could have been formed anytime in the last 24 hours since the phillies clinched the NL East. regardless of the result of the game tonight, the Phillies still host the winner in a game wednesday, while Arizona hosts Chicago and Boston hosts LA.

it really is ridiculous they haven't publicized anything yet.

Clout, those aren't just career numbers, he has been dominant against LH in 07 too.

I would *never* argue for Castro to be a part of a regular 25 man roster at this point, but for the 25th guy on the posteseason roster, Castro can actually provide real value as a one batter specialist.

Eaton on this postseason roster?! What a bunch of sh!t. Eaton is coming off one of the worst seasons a starting pitcher has had in the NL in the last 50 years. Plus, he has gotten bombed in almost everyone of his appearances the last two months. Even this is not enough to leave him off the roster.

It disgusts me that the Phils refuse to admit a mistake and leave him off the roster just because he is signed for 2 more years at big money.

"Eaton is off the playoff roster"

What a relief. I was actually afraid the Phils would reward the stiff.

I'm ready to play ball.

Re: Madson, the last word I read was from Zolecki on 9/27 who reported "Righthander Ryan Madson (strained right shoulder) is throwing again. There is an outside chance he could rejoin the Phillies should they go deep into the postseason."

The key word in that paragraph is "deep."

As a team, the current Phillies position players are hitting .470 in their career off of Jeff Francis.

Jayson Werth: .300 in 10 AB
Wes Helms: .667 in 9 AB with a HR and 4 2B
Pat Burrell: .375 in 8 AB
Jimmy Rollins: .556 in 9 AB
Aaron Rowand: .750 in 8 AB with 4 2B
Chase Utley: .250 in 8 AB with 1 HR
Ryan Howard: .400 in 5 AB
Coste, Iguchi, Victorino and Ruiz a combined .444 in 9 AB with a 2B

Not a single position player who has faced Jeff Francis is hitless. Utley has the worst average.

When do we find out what the 25-man roster will be?

kdon, you'd really trust castro in a playoff situation as your LOOGY when he couldn't get the job done in may?

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, who led the National League with five home runs and 11 RBI, has been named the National League Player of the Week for the period ending September 30th.
Howard led the N.L. with a 1.095 slugging percentage and 23 total bases last week in helping lead the Phillies to their first National League East crown since 1993. The 28-year-old reigning N.L. Most Valuable Player hit .381 (8-21), posted an on-base percentage of .480 and scored six runs. The slugger homered in five of the six games that he played in, and in the division-clinching victory yesterday vs. Washington, he went 3-for-4 with a home run and three RBI. This marks the second time this season that Ryan has earned weekly honors (previous: week ending July 22nd).

kdon: He is so horrendous that it's too great a risk the opposing mgr. would lift the lefty for a righty. The other problem is wasting a space for someone who literally can only be trusted for 1 batter. This is a team whose starters rarely go more than 5 IP and almost never more than 6 IP.

clout: With Castro's numbers vs. lefties, you don't believe he has value against one left-handed hitter if needed? You don't trust him more against that lefty hitter than Mesa or Alfonseca?

i've been smiling for 23 and a half hours now. my face hurts.

Clout, sorry, but Geary and Condrey do not "suck." Alfonseca and Mesa suck. Geary and Condrey are average.

Find me a metric that says different.

clout: Okay, point taken... you don't believe rosters are large enough for a one-batter pitcher.

I could go either way. If it means leaving Alfonseca off, I'd take Castro.

and you can't even trust him for that 1 batter, clout. admittedly, those stats don't look bad at all, but i can't remember castro coming through once for the phils in a non-mopup situation this year. makes me wonder if those Ks were all LH-hitting pitchers!

geary has been all over the place this year. he has looked as good as he can look...as in, delivering the double plays when needed...but he's also looked atrocious. if he had been up all year, i would guarantee he'd be the team leader in inherited runners scoring.

that said, i'd take him over mesa/alf, not sure the phils will. i'd definitely take condrey. castro wouldn't even be on my radar--not sure why the phillies would consider him either since cholly hasn't seen fit to use him in quite some time, no?

Well, I won't spend all day arguing the point, because it is unlikely that the 25th spot means anything (and the crowd of backlashers saying "why the hell are you arguing about Castro anyway" is near) but I'm for trying to get some positive value out of that spot.

Alfonseca, and to a lesser degree Mesa, are just negatives, bad pitchers who can't pitch many innings. Castro, though his skill set is extremerley limited, does get lefthanders out fairly consistently. To me, I take the small advantage Castro gives me over the complete black hole of suckitude that is El Pulpo/Joe Table.

Look, it doesn't matter. None of these bad BP guys are going to pitch in a game that isn't already over, and they'll all be out there taking up space whether or not they're on the roster.

Beerleaguer as usual. Arguing over the 25th man.

Hey, let's get DavThom into this. I say, leave Coste off the roster!!

can't argue with that.

Eaton, Alfonseca, Mesa, and Castro have no business being on the post-season roster.

Curt: not true. I find it hard to believe that the Phillies will be only involved in close games in which their pitchers last 6 innings. How many 10-8 type games have we been involved in this year? A lot. Not including last week's great performances by Kendrick, Lohse, and Cole, most of our wins in September included appearances by Geary, Condrey, Mesa, and Alfonseca (not as much as the others). It is very likely given our offense that we will be in close games that are high-scoring and in which our starters give up runs early and might get pulled. So yes, I think this definitly matters.

[and hugs good when the team clinches division titles.]

I'm hoping that this bit of grammatical incorrectness is a tribute to our one and only Charles Manuel?

I'd really like to see Geary on the roster. He's been on the team a few years now, and seems to have been pitching much better since his return from the minors.

kdon: I know you're still struggling to defend a bullpen that you said in spring training could do the job, a bullpen that you said didn't need Myers as a closer, a bullpen in which you said Geary was a fine setup man for a playoff team. But the fact is, this bullpen cost the team 27 losses this season. Geary's record with inherited runners is well below average, his numbers in close and late and with runners on stink. Condrey's numbers speak for themselves as well. Your self-delusion will never make you right about this bullpen no matter how hard you try.

4:15... and no schedule?!? ARGH!!

Sorry, but I have become borderline irrational when it comes to Eaton.

As for believing, the Phils have as good as shot as anybody in the NL to make the World Series. Even the Mets last year were had to be considered the favorite going into the postseason. This year - ????

Seriously, Arizona only has 90 wins yet that leds all of the NL playoff teams. Can you remember a team that led the league in wins that was so mediocre? I can't.

All the Phils had to do was make the playoffs and they did. I like their chances as much as anybody now to make the WS although I don't want to face the Rockies. Just a big first-round matchup right now for the Phils.

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